Kansas City Chiefs 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 7, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There was a time last season when the Chiefs were sitting pretty atop the NFL at 9-0 that Alex Smith was 29-5-1 in his last 35 starts. People like to give him all the credit for those wins, but in reality, he was lucky enough to face generally easy competition and have a strong running game and defense supporting him, both in San Francisco and Kansas City. In those 35 games, the offenses Smith led averaged about 24.1 points per game, above average, but not terribly impressive considering his offensive supporting cast and the easy schedule he faced.

Still, Kansas City at 9-0 looked like they would at least be what the 2011 49ers were, a 13-3 team that was a bounce of the ball away from the Super Bowl. They weren’t though, as the schedule got tougher. It wasn’t significantly tougher as they still finished the regular season with the #32 schedule of strength in terms of DVOA. However, their schedule to start the season was a joke. Only one of their 9 opponents finished the regular season above .500 and that was Philadelphia, who was still starting Michael Vick at that point. 4 of their 9 opponents finished the season 4-12.

Combined, those 9 teams finished 62-82 (.431) and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. They played 4 teams who were starting backup quarterbacks and had a 5 week stretch in which they faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Thad Lewis. Despite that, they won just 3 of them by more than 10 points and won two of them by exactly 1 point. The rest of the way, the Chiefs went 2-5 and then lost in the first round of the playoffs in Indianapolis. They finished the regular season with 1 win against a team that finished above .500, that Philadelphia win, as opposed to 6 losses against such teams (including playoffs).

Alex Smith was the main culprit, as he once again showed an inability to push the ball deep downfield and make the throws needed to beat good opponents. He completed just 35 of 92 passes more than 10 yards downfield outside the numbers or more than 20 yards downfield in the middle of the field, including 14 of 45 passes 20+ yards downfield. He’ll need to play better this season as the Chiefs schedule will be harder, by default, and they swap out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. I don’t know if he can. He’s the type of quarterback that’s only as good as his supporting cast. In terms of passing grade, he was Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The bad news for Smith is that his supporting cast is significantly worse this season. The Chiefs went into the off-season with their biggest weakness being at wide receiver. Not only did they not address that position, but they also lost 3 talented offensive linemen, their three best offensive linemen, who combined to make 28 starts last season. They won’t get much immediate help from their rookie class as they used their first round pick on Dee Ford, who will play behind Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and probably won’t start until 2015 when Houston could be gone as a free agent (side note, the Chiefs are going to regret passing on Teddy Bridgewater for Dee Ford and extending Alex Smith over Justin Houston. In a year when the Chiefs are stuck with Smith/Ford instead of Bridgewater/Houston, the Chiefs’ strategy won’t make much sense). They didn’t have a second round pick as they traded it the year before for Alex Smith.

It’s arguable that the Chiefs lost the most talent of any team in the NFL this off-season and nowhere will that be more noticeable than on the offensive line. Branden Albert, who was graded out well above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, is now in Miami and the Chiefs will slide Eric Fisher from right tackle to left tackle. He was Pro Football Focus’ 70^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible last season in 14 starts. Fisher could be better in his 2^nd year in the NFL. After all, he was the #1 overall pick in last year’s draft and his natural, collegiate position is left tackle. That being said, he was the #1 overall pick in one of the weakest drafts in recent memory and the blindside is typically a tougher position in the NFL because you aren’t getting tight end help as often and you’re more often getting the opponent’s best pass rusher.

Fisher at left tackle is a minor concern, but the bigger concern is Donald Stephenson at right tackle. Stephenson, a 2012 3^rd round pick, has struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play in 2 years in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 58^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible on just 377 snaps in 2012 and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible on 543 snaps in 2013. Furthermore, it’s telling about Fisher that, when Branden Albert missed a few games last year, they stuck Stephenson at left tackle instead of Fisher. If, for whatever reason, they do that going into 2014, they’re in even more trouble. Fisher should be able to lock down the left tackle job ahead of Stephenson, who isn’t qualified to protect a quarterback’s blindside in the NFL.

At guard, Geoff Schwartz and Jon Asamoah are gone, but Jeff Allen remains. That’s not a good thing though. While Schwartz and Asamoah were Pro Football Focus’ 8^th and 20^th ranked guards respectively last season, Allen was 61^st out of 81 eligible. He struggled in 2012 as well, as the then 2^nd round rookie graded out as the 3^rd worst player at his position. He’ll start at left guard.

Sadly, he’s probably their top guard. Opposite him, Jeff Linkenbach is penciled in and will probably begin the season as the starter, out of lack of alternatives, not on merit. Linkenbach has graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2010, struggling at both guard and tackle. His only season as a full-time starter was in 2011, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus 7^th worst ranked offensive tackle. He was under-qualified as a 6^th, swing offensive lineman in Indianapolis last year and he’s definitely under-qualified as a starter. The Chiefs’ alternatives include Rokevious Watkins, a 2012 5^th round pick of the Rams who has struggled in limited action thus far, and Laurent Duverney-Tardif, a raw 6^th round rookie from Canada.

The only stable position on the offensive line for the Chiefs is center, where Rodney Hudson is the starter. Hudson, a 2011 2^nd round pick, graded out about average on Pro Football Focus last season as their 17^th ranked center in his first full-year as a starter, after converting from guard. He was also very solid in 3 starts in 2012 before going down for the season with injury. That being said, when he’s your best offensive lineman, and he very well could be, you’re in big trouble.

The Chiefs were 10^th in the NFL in pass block efficiency last season. This season, they could easily be among the worst in the NFL in that facet, especially when you consider that their schedule will be tougher this season. That’s an issue considering Alex Smith completed 46.1% of his passes under pressure last season. They also will have more trouble opening up holes for Jamaal Charles than they did last season, when they were Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked team in terms of team run blocking grade.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs’ biggest weakness going into the off-season was their receiving corps. This was clear as Jamaal Charles, their starting running back, led the team in receiving yards, catching 70 passes for 693 yards and 7 touchdowns, all team leaders. Charles is a fantastic pass catching back, but they need someone else to step up as a receiving threat, particularly down the field.

Dwayne Bowe is supposed to be that guy, after the Chiefs gave him a 5-year, 56 million dollar deal before last season, after franchise tagging him the off-season before. Bowe has always been able to put up big numbers, catching 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career before last season, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. However, last year with Smith, arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with, he managed just 57 passes for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Part of it was just that Alex Smith’s limited arm strength meant that he didn’t look often to the parts of the field to which Bowe often ran his routes last season, but part of it is on Bowe. He got 101 targets last season, which should have been more than enough for Bowe to establish himself as a threat more often. After finally getting a long-term deal, it looked like Bowe, who has a history of issues with motivation, let himself get out of shape a little bit and wasn’t always giving 100%. He’s also is going into his age 30 season so age is a bit of a concern. He’s reportedly changing his diet to try to stay in better shape for next season, which could help him, but I’m not expecting him to become a big-time receiving threat again in 2014.

Sadly, Bowe is still by far their best wide receiver. Donnie Avery, out of necessity, will be the other starting receiver again. Avery had a solid rookie year as a 2nd round rookie in 2008, but a bunch of leg injuries that limited him to 3 catches in 8 games combined in 2010 and 2011 have really taken their toll on him. He appeared to have revitalized his career in 2012 in Indianapolis, where he caught a career high 60 passes for a career high 781 yards to go with 3 touchdowns, but he was actually one of the most inefficient receivers in the NFL. He graded 100th out of 105 eligible at his position on Pro Football Focus, had his position’s 3rd highest drop rate among eligible receivers (12 drops to 60 catches) and ranked 70th out of 82 eligible in QB rating when thrown to, catching those 60 passes on 112 targets with 3 interceptions to those 3 touchdowns. Last year, he wasn’t much better, grading out 105^th out of 111 eligible.

In addition to not upgrading the wide receiver position, the Chiefs also lost slot receiver Dexter McCluster this off-season. He was a solid part of their offense and Alex Smith enjoyed checking down to him. He caught 53 passes for 511 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and more than half of his yards per reception (5.1 per catch) came after the catch. AJ Jenkins and Junior Hemingway are now their top receivers on the depth chart after Avery. Hemingway, a 2012 7^th round pick, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 102^nd ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible last season despite playing just 315 snaps. It’s hard to expect much more from him this season.

AJ Jenkins, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2012, but didn’t catch a pass in his rookie year in San Francisco and was traded to the Chiefs for another former first round pick bust Jonathan Baldwin last off-season. He only caught 8 passes last season, but he’s a better fit in Andy Reid’s offense than he was in Jim Harbaugh’s and he had a decent week 17 when the Chiefs rested their starters, as he caught 3 passes for 67 yards. Still, it would be very much wishful thinking for the Chiefs to expect him to have a 3^rd year breakout year. He was a surprise first round pick to begin with and really looks like he never deserved to be drafted that high. If he develops enough to take Avery’s starting job, the Chiefs should count that as a win, but I’m not even sure he can do that. DeAnthony Thomas, a 4^th round rookie, is a gadget player and slot option who is a long-shot for serious playing time. The Chiefs have a lot of problems at wide receiver. It’s slim pickings for Alex Smith.

Things aren’t much better at tight end. Alex Smith has to be missing Vernon Davis, a dominant tight end who he loved throwing to in San Francisco. Smith loves throwing short and over the middle, but doesn’t have anyone who can even come close to dominating in that part of the field. Anthony Fasano is the incumbent starter and will probably keep his starting job, but he only caught 23 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and didn’t excel as a blocker.

Travis Kelce was the Chiefs’ 2013 3^rd round pick. He didn’t play a snap as a rookie because of injury and, as much upside as he may have in terms of pass catching ability, he’s still completely unproven on the field. Sean McGrath, a 2012 undrafted free agent, also got in the mix last season, catching 26 passes for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs also do a fair amount of throwing to the fullback, as Anthony Sherman caught 18 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He also graded out as by far Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked blocking fullback and #1 ranked fullback overall. And, of course, the Chiefs also throw a lot to Jamaal Charles. Overall though, it’s a very weak unit for the Chiefs.

Grade: C

Running Backs

I already mentioned the Chiefs’ dominant fullback Anthony Sherman and Jamaal Charles prowess as a pass catcher, but he’s also a hell of a runner as well. He’s the one saving grace of the Chiefs’ offense. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the best running back in football. His 5.58 career yards per carry are the highest all-time by a modern era running back (1960-today). Jim Brown comes in 2^nd and even the legendary Brown averaged “just” 5.22 yards per carry.

Last season, Charles averaged 4.97 yards per carry on 259 yards, rushing for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns, in addition to what he did as a pass catcher. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back overall (behind LeSean McCoy) and 4^th ranked in pure running grade (behind McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson). In 2012, on a bad team and a year removed from a torn ACL, he averaged 5.29 yards per carry on 285 carries, rushing for 1509 yards and 5 touchdowns, a season that would have gotten much more recognition if the Chiefs had been better and if Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning hadn’t had more impressive comeback seasons. Charles will probably never be a 300+ carry back under Andy Reid, but the Chiefs pass to the running back enough to make up for it.

There are some concerns here though. I already mentioned the Chiefs’ declining offensive line in front of him. It’s also just very tough to count on your star running back to do everything on offense. The 5-10 200 pound back now has 649 touches in 2 seasons back from that torn ACL and he could be wearing out a little bit going into his age 28 season. If anything happens to him, the Chiefs’ insurance policy is Knile Davis, a 2013 3^rd round pick who had 88 total carries (regular season and post-season) as a rookie and rushed for 309 yards (3.51 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns, while adding 18 catches for 108 yards. He’s basically just a goal line, short yardage back and the Chiefs would obviously be in trouble if he had to become the lead back. Most likely Charles stays healthy, has another dominant year, and tries to carry this offense, but the concerns with having a running back being such a big part of your offense needed to be mentioned.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

While the Chiefs had big losses on offense this off-season, they didn’t lose much on defense. Tyson Jackson was probably their biggest loss as the former 3^rd overall pick finally had a strong year in his contract year in 2013, only to sign with Atlanta this off-season. The Chiefs made the right move letting him sign for more than he was worth in Atlanta (5-year, 25 million), as he’s still a one year wonder who could coast now that he’s been paid and he’s also only a part-time, one-dimensional player, as good as he is against the run (10^th among 3-4 defensive ends in run grade on Pro Football Focus in 2013). They got better value by signing Vance Walker for 3 years, 13 million, even if he might not be as good as Jackson was last season.

Unlike the one-dimensional, specialized Jackson, Walker is equally solid as a run stopper and a pass rusher. He won’t be as good as Jackson was against the run in base packages, but he’ll play some sub packages, which Jackson never did. That will cut into some Allen Bailey’s and Dontari Poe’s snaps, which isn’t a bad thing because the former, a situational sub package rusher, ironically struggled as a pass rusher last season and did his best work against the run. Meanwhile, the latter played an absurd 66.9 snaps per game last season at 6-3 346 and could use more frequent breathers. Walker was Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and 36^th ranked in 2013, both above average. One concern is that he’s never played in a 3-4 as a pro and at 6-2 305, he seems like a bit of an odd fit in the Chiefs’ defensive scheme.

Opposite Walker, Mike DeVito is essentially a more consistently, better version of Tyson Jackson, a pure base defensive end who excels against the run. Playing just 446 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, with no one playing fewer snaps than him and grading out higher, and he was 4^th in pure run grade. In 2012, he was 9^th at his position on 554 snaps, including 7^th in pure run grade. In 2011, he was 9^th at his position on 414 snaps, including 5^th in pure run grade. In 2010, he was 6^th at his position on 552 snaps, including 2^nd in pure run grade. Somehow, only Calais Campbell has also graded out top-10 among 3-4 defensive ends in each of the last 4 seasons and DeVito is doing it despite playing only half the snaps. He’ll see almost no snaps in sub packages this year with Vance Walker, Dontari Poe, and, to an extent, Allen Bailey rotating at defensive tackle in sub packages.

Speaking of Poe, I mentioned he played an absurd amount of snaps last year. His 1004 snaps played led all defensive tackles and he did it in 15 games, despite being a monstrous 6-3 346. Only 5 other defensive linemen played that many snaps last season. The nose tackle stayed on the field for almost every single sub package snap, which is incredibly rare and incredibly impressive. He played every single snap in 5 games and missed 63 snaps all season, excluding the week 17 game in which the Chiefs rested their starters. In the playoff loss to Indianapolis, he dominated, while playing 59 of 67 possible snaps.

The 2012 1^st round pick broke out last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked defensive tackle. He excelled against the run, but also played well as a pass rusher, despite his massive size. The big man has rare movement abilities. In his 3^rd year in the league, only his age 24 season, he could be even better. He’ll probably be more efficient at the very least if they can get him a few more breathers, though he’s not exactly someone you want to take off the field.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned earlier the Chiefs’ deadly combination of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali at rush linebacker. Hali might be better known, but Houston is actually the better of the two linebackers. A 3^rd round pick in 2011, Houston only fell because of a failed drug test at the combine. His off-the-field issues have been a non-factor in his career thus far, which has allowed him to dominate off the edge. He first proved his worth in 7 late season starts as a rookie, a stretch in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 5 of 7 games. Despite issues in coverage (worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in coverage in 2011), he still graded out 13^th at his position that season on 773 snaps, including 10^th as a pass rusher and 5^th as a run stopper.

That allowed Houston to lock down the starting job going into 2012, which was his breakout year on an otherwise abysmal 2-14 Chiefs team. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average in coverage, as a pass rusher, and against the run, while committing just 1 penalty all season. Meanwhile, teammate Tamba Hali graded out 15^th at the position. Houston continued his strong play in 2013, which was his best season as a pro.

Despite missing 5 ½ games with an injury, Houston still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and would have been in the running for Defensive Player of the Year had he stayed healthy. Prior to his injury, he missed 7 snaps all season. His most dominant performances were week 3 against Philadelphia, when he had 7 tackles for a stop (within 4 yards of the original line of scrimmage on first down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down), including 4 sacks, and week 11 against Denver, when he had 10 total tackles, including 8 for a stop. If the Chiefs did draft Dee Ford in order to be Houston’s replacement long-term, freeing up money to extend Alex Smith long-term, rather than taking Teddy Bridgewater to be Alex Smith’s replacement and locking up Houston long-term, they’re going to really regret it. He’s one of the best players in football.

Hali opposite him is the “other” pass rusher, which tells you how good the Chiefs are at the rush linebacker position. There might not be a better pair of rush linebackers in the NFL and they might be the best pair of edge rushers in general, regardless of scheme. Hali was “only” Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. He was 15^th in 2012, in a down year, but otherwise he’s been a dominant edge rusher since converting to rush linebacker in 2009.

He was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th, 1^st, and 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively. In 2010, he had arguably the most impressive season in terms of purely rushing the passer of any player in the last 5 years as he had 17 sacks, 16 hits, and 64 hurries on 543 pass rush snaps, an absurd 17.9% rate (basically he was pressuring the quarterback on more than a 1/6 of his pass rush snaps).

The biggest issue with Hali is his age as he goes into his age 31 season. He’s shown some small signs of decline over the past two seasons and, if he has a down year this year, (completely possible considering guys like Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, and Dwight Freeney have done similar things at similar points in their careers) Hali could be a cap casualty going into 2015. The Chiefs would save 9 million in cash and cap space by cutting him going into what would be his age 32 contract year, which would allow the Chiefs to re-sign Houston.

Either way, with the Chiefs drafting Dee Ford in the first round, it looks like this could very well by the final year of Houston/Hali on the edge for the Chiefs. As a rookie, Ford will work purely as a depth player, which was a need as Frank Zombo was previously their primary reserve, and he’s pretty mediocre. However, he’s unlikely to provide the immediate value for the Chiefs that they need considering all they lost this off-season.

At middle linebacker, the Chiefs have another stud linebacker, Derrick Johnson. Johnson doesn’t get the recognition of guys like Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, and Luke Kuechly, but he’s in that same class of player. Mr. Reliable, Johnson has been a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, something only Patrick Willis himself can also say. Last season, he was 3^rd. Even in 2009, the last season he was outside of the top-5, he graded out 8^th and did it on 344 snaps.

Todd Haley did a lot of things wrong in Kansas City, but his biggest success was his ability to bring the most out of Johnson, a 2005 1^st round pick, with discipline and toughness. Haley benched Johnson during 2009 for a variety of reasons and that served as a much needed wakeup call. He hasn’t looked back since. Even going into his age 32 season, he could easily have another strong season, as he’s yet to really show signs of aging, though his age is beginning to become a concern.

The only issue in the linebacking corps for the Chiefs is the other middle linebacker spot inside next to Johnson. Joe Mays is penciled in at that spot after the Chiefs lost yet another starter, Akeem Jordan, to free agency. Jordan wasn’t spectacular or anything as a part-time player and two down run stuffer, but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked middle linebacker in run grade last season on just 489 snaps.

It’s not a particularly important position as it’s only a two-down position. Eric Berry usually comes down towards the line of scrimmage as a box safety in sub packages and essentially plays linebacker, with the Chiefs going to 3 safeties. However, Mays should be a downgrade. A 2008 6^th round pick, Mays has graded out slightly below average in each of the last 3 seasons on Pro Football Focus, functioning as a fringe starter in both Denver and Houston. His strength is the run, but he’s not what Jordan was last season. Their other option is 2013 4^th round pick Nico Johnson, who played 17 snaps as a rookie. He’s a long-shot for the starting job.

Grade: A

Secondary

Speaking of Eric Berry, the safety/linebacker is Kansas City’s best defensive back. The 5^th overall pick in 2010, Berry was overrated for a while, undeservedly making the Pro-Bowl in both 2010 and 2012. Berry played well as a rookie in 2010, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked safety, but he wasn’t Pro-Bowl caliber. He could have broken out as Pro-Bowl caliber in 2011, but he tore his ACL 5 snaps into the season. He was solid again in 2012, upon his return, grading out about average on Pro Football Focus, but he still wasn’t Pro-Bowl caliber and still didn’t appear to be reaching his full potential.

In 2013, his 4^th year in the league, Berry did reach his potential, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety and deservedly making the Pro-Bowl. Now completely healthy with 1 game missed in his other 3 seasons (a meaningless week 17 game last year), Berry is going into his age 26 contract year and should have another solid season. By virtue of frequently playing as a sub package linebacker, Berry primarily lines up within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage (69.7% of snaps in 2013, 3^rd in the NFL). That being said, coverage is still his strong suit. The only issue with him playing linebacker often is that it takes arguably their best coverage back out of the secondary in sub packages, but he can still add to their coverage in a significant way from middle linebacker.

The Chiefs lost a lot of depth at safety this off-season. None of the guys they lost were particularly good, but they need as much depth as possible given how often they use 3 safeties. Kendrick Lewis and Quintin Demps both graded out slightly below average last season on 1079 and 665 snaps respectively, but that depth will be missed. Husain Abdullah will now be the #2 safety. He was decent on 294 snaps last season after being out of the league in 2012 for religious reasons. He was a solid starter in Minnesota before that and is still younger than 30.

The bigger concern is their 3^rd safety. There are five options. Malcolm Bronson was an undrafted free agent in 2013 and didn’t play at all as a rookie. Daniel Sorensen is an undrafted free agent rookie. Sanders Commings, a tweener cornerback/safety at 6-0 216, played 3 snaps as a 5^th round rookie last season. Jerron McMillan actually has experience. The 2012 4^th round pick was solid as a rookie on 609 snaps as a rookie in Green Bay, but struggled mightily on 196 snaps in 2013, leading to his release. He was a week 1 starter, but he would have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th worst safety last season despite his very limited playing time, if he was eligible. The fourth option is to convert one of their cornerbacks to safety in sub packages. Phillip Gaines, a 6-0 193 pound 3^rd round rookie, is one option and Sean Smith, a 6-3 215 pounder, also has some safety experience.

The only way that could happen is if the Chiefs don’t cut Brandon Flowers. The Chiefs can get out of his 7.5 million dollar salary and spread out his 7 million dollar cap hit over two seasons if they cut him today as a post-June 1^st cut, which is reportedly a consideration for them. That would save them 7.25 million on the cap. Trading him would reportedly be their preference. Flowers was once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He was a top-7 cornerback in the NFL on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out at #2 in 2010.

However, he struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 87^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible, including 96^th in pure coverage grade. Ironically, he somehow made the first Pro-Bowl of his career in 2013. If they keep him, he could have a bounce back year, but he might just be a horrible scheme fit under Don Sutton, who took over as defensive coordinator last season and generally did a great job. Flowers could be a bargain signing in the right scheme if he’s let go.

Sean Smith will slot in as the other starter. He had a strong season in 2010, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked cornerback, but he had a horrible season in 2011, grading out 105^th out of 109 eligible. Over the past two seasons, he’s settled in as an average starting cornerback, which is what he really is. Marcus Cooper is currently penciled in as the 3^rd cornerback. Cooper, a 7^th round rookie, got off to a great start to his career, but got exposed down the stretch, including a 3 week span in which he allowed 454 receiving yards. He ended up finishing the season grading out slightly below average. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees. He could be pushed by 3^rd round rookie Phillip Gaines. Gaines would also have a big role if they were to move on from Flowers. And, as I mentioned, one of their cornerbacks could play safety part-time. The secondary is the weakest part of an overall strong defense.

Grade: B

Overall

Everything suggests the Chiefs will decline this season. Teams that have big win improvements tend to decline by about half the win improvement total from the previous season. The Chiefs won 2 games in 2012 and 11 games in 2013, a 9 game win improvement. Obviously the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid had something to do with that, but the rest of the team is pretty much the same. History suggests they’ll decline by about 4 or 5 wins, which would put them right around the win total they had in 2011, when they went 7-9. That seems about right.

That’s not the only thing I’m basing my decline theory on though. The Chiefs were not as good as their record suggested last season. They played the league’s easiest schedule in terms of DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account the number of teams they faced who were starting backup quarterbacks. Now they trade out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. They also suffered an unsustainably low amount of injuries, with the fewest adjusted games lost in the NFL last season. Yes, they did lose Justin Houston for 5 ½ games which hurt, but their other key players, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Alex Smith, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Devito missed a combined 1 game between them last season, excluding the finale, in which the Chiefs rested their starters. That much injury luck is unlikely to happen again.

The Chiefs were also overly reliant on winning the turnover margin, with an AFC best +18 turnover margin. Winning the turnover margin consistently is hard to do, unless you have a top quarterback, and even then it’s hard. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. These things are unpredictable. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to have success the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Chiefs are unlikely to recover 58.70% of fumbles again next season, 4^th best in the NFL. The tougher schedule and the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries will also play a role in this.

In addition to the Chiefs not being as good as their record last season, they also have less talent than last season, because of all of their off-season losses. They lost their 3 most talented offensive linemen, who combined for 26 starts last season. They also lost valuable depth at wide receiver, safety, and middle linebacker. They’re unlikely to get much out of their rookie class this season, as their first round pick was used with 2015 in mind and they didn’t have a 2^nd round pick. In terms of pure talent level, I have them closer to the bottom of the league than the top. Every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Chiefs are a prime candidate to do so if enough things go wrong. I’ll have an official prediction at the end of all the previews.

Season Prediction: 5-11 3rd in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers 2014 NFL Season Preview

June 5, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor. Aging, with just 2 years left on his deal, there was talk that the Chargers could draft a quarterback of the future behind Rivers. He wasn’t supposed to improve going into 2013. Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, completing 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 105.5, tying his career high.

He led the Chargers to the playoffs with a record of 9-7, pulling an upset in Cincinnati in the first round, and came within a touchdown of knocking off the Broncos in Denver in the next round, which would have been the second time the Chargers won in Denver last season. The Chargers were able to do this despite a defense that ranked 28^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.36% rate, because Rivers led an offense that was 2^nd in the NFL moving the chains at a 78.26% rate. Only Denver (81.09%) was better and the Chargers were over a percent better than third place New Orleans (76.98%).

How was Rivers able to turn it around? Well, for one, a new coaching staff led by offensive minded Head Coach Mike McCoy and talented offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt replaced the old Norv Turner led staff. McCoy and Whisenhunt built an offense more suited to Rivers’ strengths and the benefits were obvious. Rivers also had more talent around him. In the pre-season last year, I did a list of the top-200 players in the NFL. The Chargers had just one, safety Eric Weddle, the fewest in the NFL. They didn’t have a single one on the offensive side of the ball. Former GM AJ Smith screwed up the Chargers’ last few drafts horribly and didn’t do much to remedy the situation in free agency.

New GM Tom Telesco did a great job in his first off-season with the team, despite not much to work with. Drafting DJ Fluker in the first round helped, but the real steals were getting Keenan Allen in the 3rd round getting and King Dunlap and Danny Woodhead on cheap contracts in free agency. The Chargers also got vintage years from aging veterans Antonio Gates and Nick Hardwick and a breakout year from former first round pick Ryan Mathews. The defense was still a mess, as I mentioned earlier, but the offense was fantastic last season. Rivers did a fantastic job with a solid, but unspectacular offensive supporting cast and was, in my mind, the non-Peyton Manning MVP of last season.

Rivers and the Chargers’ offense might not be as good this season and fall back to earth a little bit. Rivers is going into his age 33 season coming off of a career year. Ken Whisenhunt is now the head coach in Tennessee. However, the offense will be the strength of the team. If they make the playoffs again, it’ll be on the strength of their offense. They will probably have to play noticeably better defensively to make the playoffs again.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned Keenan Allen earlier. Out of anyone outside of Philip Rivers, he was their most valuable player last season. Allen was seen as a likely first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft going into the 2012 season, after catching 98 passes for 1343 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2011, but a down 2012 season (61/737/6) caused by knee problems plus a 4.77 40 time dropped him to the 3rd round.

The Chargers wisely picked him up and even though he didn’t play at all week 1 and didn’t move into the starting lineup until week 4, he still caught 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. Rookie wide receivers aren’t supposed to get it this quickly. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Allen blew those numbers out of the water and he was a 3rd round pick. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and didn’t come close to what Keenan Allen did this year as rookies (58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively). Allen continued this strong play into the post-season, where he caught 8 passes for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games.

Allen did all of this despite “only” running 510 pass snaps and seeing the bulk of the defense’s attention as a #1 wide receiver as a rookie. He averaged 2.06 yards per route run, which was 15th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, between Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant. And it wasn’t like the Chargers were forcing him the ball. Allen’s 101 targets were 31st in the NFL (he caught 70.3% of them) and Philip Rivers had a 118.1 QB rating throwing to Allen, which was 7th best in the NFL in terms of wide receiver QB rating when thrown to. That’s a big part of the reason why Rivers was able to post a 105.5 QB rating in general and why the Chargers’ offense was so good last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked wide receiver overall and 8^th ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade.

Allen doesn’t have a ton of long-term upside because of his relatively limited athleticism. Billed as a pro ready wide receiver, Allen isn’t a phenomenal athlete and I see him more as an Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston type long-term (non-first round pick wide receivers who had 1000+ yard rookie seasons) rather than an AJ Green type (first round pick wide receiver who had a 1000+ yard rookie season). Colston and Boldin are both big bodied receivers who never really improved significantly over their strong rookie years, though both still have had fantastic careers. However, Allen should be even more productive this season simply by virtue of the fact that he’ll play more this season. An extra 50 routes run should be another 100 yards. I could see him in the 1100-1200 yard range this season, even if he doesn’t improve much in terms of his pure abilities.

Outside of Allen, they don’t have a ton of talent in the receiving corps though. Antonio Gates turned in a vintage season last year, thanks to the new coaching staff, Rivers’ improved play, more talent around him, and suddenly solid health injury wise. Gates caught 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns, his highest receiving total since 2009 and played all 16 games, something else he hadn’t done since 2009. He averaged 1.59 yards per route run (on 549 routes run), 13^th among tight ends and he was Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked tight end in pass catching grade, though he was horrible as a blocker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst in that regard.

He could have another solid season, but now he heads into his age 34 season. His 2012 season in which he caught 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns is still fairly recent and relevant. He also missed 10 games from 2010-2012. If he starts to show his age more, it’ll probably be more snaps for Ladarius Green, a 2012 4^th round pick and Gates’ heir apparent. Green only ran 141 routes last season, but impressed, catching 17 passes for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 2.67 yards per route run.

If he had played enough snaps to qualify, he would have been Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked tight end last season, despite his limited playing time (370 snaps). He averaged an absurd 22.1 yards per catch (including 9.3 yards after catch per catch) and established himself as a dangerous weapon in the seam. His experience is still limited (409 career snaps) and the 6-6 240 pounder isn’t much of an inline blocker, but the future still seems bright for him, especially if Gates starts struggling and Green starts getting more playing time as a result. John Phillips, meanwhile, is their 3^rd tight end their blocking specialist, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL suffered in December. When healthy, he’s alright at what he does.

Opposite Keenan Allen at wide receiver, things aren’t great. Vincent Brown was the starter last season and will probably continue to serve in that role this season. The 2011 3^rd round pick was a popular breakout candidate going into 2012, after flashing as a rookie and in Training Camp, but broke his ankle in the pre-season and missed the entire season. He was healthy last season, but, in his 3^rd year in the league, didn’t prove to be anything more than a marginal starter at best. He caught 41 passes for 472 yards and a touchdown on 518 routes run, 0.91 yards per route run, 88^th out of 94 eligible. Much of that had to do with him just not being targeted a ton and he did catch 63.1% of his targets and grade out about average on Pro Football Focus, but he’s not a real asset in the passing game.

Eddie Royal will continue being the slot specialist. He ran 437 routes last season and 85.8% of them were on the slot, the 5^th highest percentage in the NFL. His 8 touchdowns were impressive, but it’s ultimately unsustainable for a 5-10 slot specialist to continue averaging 8 touchdowns per 47 catches (10 touchdowns on his other 229 career touchdowns). He took those 47 catches for 631 yards, 1.43 yards per route run, which is pretty middle of the pack, though he did grade out above average on Pro Football Focus, catching 71.2% of his targets. Royal had a strong rookie year in Denver in 2008, catching 91 passes for 980 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he managed just 138 catches over the next 4 seasons combined before finally finding a fit last year in Mike McCoy’s offense. He’ll continue being solid in that role, but he’s a specialized player.

Malcom Floyd is the wild card in the receiving mix if he can come back from a serious neck injury. That’s up for debate though and it’s looking like 50/50 that he even plays next season, in what would be his age 33 season. Even when he was younger and healthier, Floyd was a marginal receiver, never going above 856 yards receiving, even in an explosive San Diego offense. He’s also only played in 90 games over 10 seasons in his career. He’s unlikely to contribute much this season. Overall, the Chargers’ receiving corps is only solid. Keenan Allen is one of the top receivers in the NFL and maybe Antonio Gates has another good year left in him or Ladarius Green can break out, but other than that there’s not much to be excited about. Philip Rivers still has the ability to get the most out of them though.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

I mentioned King Dunlap earlier as one of the steals of the off-season for new Chargers GM Tom Telesco. Dunlap took a lot of heat in Philadelphia in 2012, when the 2008 7^th round pick and career backup took over for an injured Jason Peters at left tackle. Dunlap was blamed for a lot of the Eagles’ problems on the offensive line and on the team in general. In reality, he actually played pretty well, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus, including 21^st in pass blocking. Though he was a weak run blocker, he only allowed 5 sacks, 4 hits, and 18 hurries on 838 snaps, despite Michael Vick’s tendency to hold the ball too long.

The Chargers were able to get him on a 2-year, 3.95 million dollar deal and he proved to be more than worth it after he won the starting job in Training Camp. Despite missing 5 games with injury, Dunlap graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked offensive tackle, allowing 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 13 hurries. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps and graded out higher. He was a huge part of why the Chargers were able to turn around what was the #31 pass blocking offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency in 2012. They still weren’t great (24^th), but it was enough of an improvement to help Rivers look like his old self again. Dunlap might not be quite as good in 2014, but he could also be even better if he’s able to stay healthy and on the field for more games.

DJ Fluker was another big addition upfront. The 11^th pick in the draft, Fluker graded out about average on Pro Football Focus, which was better than anything they’ve had at the position in a while. He was a better run blocker than pass protector, but he held his own in pass protection. Going into his age 2^nd year in the NFL, only his age 23 season, the massive 6-5 319 pound bruiser could easily be better and is an obvious breakout candidate. He started last season strong, but struggled when forced to move to left tackle when Dunlap was hurt. He’s much better on the right side, his collegiate position.

The other big “improvement” on the offensive line for the Chargers from 2012 to 2013 was at center. There wasn’t a personnel change as Nick Hardwick remained the starting center, but the aging veteran had a vintage season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked center. He has a history of being a solid center, grading out 17^th in 2010 and 14^th in 2011, but he graded out 31^st out of 36 eligible in 2012. It’s possible 2012 was just an aberration and centers certainly can have longer careers than most positions, but it is hard to trust he’ll definitely have another solid season, now going into his age 33 season.

The Chargers’ biggest weakness upfront is at guard. Left guard isn’t quite as big of a problem. Chad Rinehart graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus last season. He could be better in 2014. After all, he was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked guard in 2011. That being said, that was his only other season as a full-time starter as he’s struggled with injury problems throughout his career. He played in 15 games in 2011, but he’s never played all 16 games. Last season, he played 11 games. He’s still probably locked in as a starter.

At right guard, Jeromey Clary might not be locked in. A below average right tackle earlier in his career, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 73^rd ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2011, the Chargers moved the aging Clary to right guard in hopes of making life easier for him inside and turning him into a solid starter. That didn’t work out as Clary graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 72^nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible, despite making just 11 starts at the position (he made 4 starts at right tackle, where he wasn’t much better). Now going into his age 31 season, he could lose his starting job. The Chargers can save 4.55 million in cash and cap space if they cut him going into his contract year.

The issue is they don’t really have anyone to replace him. Johnnie Troutman is their reserve guard and 6^th offensive lineman. He didn’t play a snap as a rookie in 2012 thanks to injury, after getting drafted in the 5^th round. However, he played quite a bit last season, seeing 648 snaps and making 9 starts (when Clary moved to right tackle and when Rinehart was hurt). He struggled mightily though, grading out as Pro Football Focus 59^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible despite the somewhat limited playing time. He’d be cheaper than Clary, but he might not be an upgrade. Another option is 3^rd round rookie Chris Watt, but it’s hard to trust a 3^rd round rookie. It’s still an improved offensive line from 2012, but they have issues.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Ryan Mathews will continue being the lead back. Mathews was the 12^th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft after the Chargers traded up for him. He had a disappointing first 3 years in the league, struggling to stay on the field (missing 10 games in 3 seasons) and totaling 564 carries from 2010-2012. However, he finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries (4.40 yards per carry) and playing all 16 games. He didn’t contribute much in the passing game (26 catches), but he’s shown pass catching ability in the past (50 catches in 2011). He graded out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus. Mathews could have another solid season in 2014, but he could just as easily get hurt.

The Chargers did sign insurance for Mathews in the form of Donald Brown. It was an odd signing as Brown was one of the market’s top running backs and got one of the highest annual salaries on the open market this off-season (3 years, 10.5 million, 4 million guaranteed), but the Chargers didn’t have a real need at running back and didn’t have a ton of cap space to work with. Still, he was reasonably paid and will provide insurance as a backup. He’s expected to get about 5-10 touches per game, at least as long as Mathews is healthy.

Donald Brown has never had more than 150 touches in a season since being drafted in the 1st round in 2009. He averages 4.3 yards per carry for his career and he’s a liability on passing downs as he doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher or pass protector. He had a strong contract year, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, catching 27 passes for 214 yards and scoring a total of 7 times. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked running back and ranked 1st in elusive rating. That being said, that was on only 102 carries and 379 total snaps and, given his history, it’s a major leap to suggest he could be a consistently successful lead back if needed. He’s probably best off in this backup role.

Neither Brown nor Mathews showed much as a pass catcher last season, but that’s fine because the Chargers have Danny Woodhead as a pass catching specialist. He caught 76 passes last season on 302 routes run for 609 receiving yards, an average of 2.02 yards per route run, 4^th among eligible running backs. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back in terms of pass catching grade. Only 7 targets thrown to him were incomplete.

He was a big part of the reason why the Chargers were able to turn it around and have a strong offensive year last year. He was Darren Sproles 2.0 for the Chargers, a big part of their short, quick throw offense, something they and Philip Rivers had been missing badly since Sproles left. He’s not much of a rusher though. Woodhead had 106 carries last season, a career high, but only rushed for 4.05 yards per carry. Brown will eat into his carries, which is good, as it’ll allow him to focus more on pass catching.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

I mentioned how bad the defense was last season. They have a chance to be just as bad this season. Eric Weddle was their only top-200 player on defense going into last season and, while they’ll have some guys break into the top-200 on offense, Weddle will remain their only highly ranked defensive player and by a good margin. The Chargers didn’t have much cap room to work with this off-season and they used most of it on Donald Brown, so they were unable to add to the defense in free agency. They’ll need big performances from rookies Jason Verrett and Jeremiah Attachou, who were drafted in the first and second round respectively, as well as a few bounce back years from some guys.

Let’s start with some of the good defensively. Corey Liuget is one of their better defensive players and was one of just a few key role players on defense to grade out about average or above average on Pro Football Focus last year. The exciting part of this for Chargers fans is that last year could have easily been a down year and an anomaly as he was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012. The 2011 1^st round pick did struggle as a rookie, so 2012 still is the outlier when you look at his still brief career, but there’s a solid chance he bounces back and has an above average year. Part of the culprit for his down year last year might have been that he played the entire season through a torn labrum in his shoulder. The Chargers exercised his 5^th year option, as he goes into his 4^th year in the league, and a big season could set him up for a solid extension.

Opposite him, things weren’t as good. Kendall Reyes, a 2012 2^nd round pick, was solid as a rookie, grading out slightly above average, but he struggled mightily in his sophomore year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end. He could be better this season, but it’s hard to trust him. Another issue at 3-4 defensive end is the Chargers lack depth. Cam Thomas, their starting nose tackle, is gone, meaning Sean Lissemore, previously a reserve 3-4 defensive end, will move to nose tackle. That will lead to a bigger role for Lawrence Guy, an unproven 2011 7^th round pick who did impress on 128 snaps last season. After him on the depth chart is Damik Scafe, a 2011 undrafted free agent who has played 14 career snaps.

Lissemore should do a fine job at nose tackle though and could even be an upgrade over Cam Thomas, an average starting nose tackle who left for Pittsburgh this off-season. Lissemore is undersized for a nose tackle at 6-3 298, but he has a solid history as a situational run stopper, excelling as a run stopper on 282 total snaps in 2011 and playing well as a run stopper on 216 total snaps in 2013, though the 2010 7^th round pick did have a down year in 2012 on 329 snaps. Still, he seems suited to be a starting two-down part-time base player in San Diego’s defense. If he isn’t, the Chargers would likely have to turn to 5^th round rookie Ryan Carrethers. Carrethers, unfortunately, is only a pure nose tackle at 6-1 337 and couldn’t really provide depth at any other defensive line position.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At outside linebacker, the Chargers are banking on two outside linebackers coming off of serious injuries. One of them is Melvin Ingram, a 2012 1^st round pick who tore his ACL last May. Ingram was decent as a rookie in 2012 on 475 snaps, but was unable to improve in his 2^nd season in the league because of the injury. Ingram eventually returned for the final 4 games of the regular season (playing 122 combined snaps) and was close to a full-time player by the two playoff games, but he struggled and clearly wasn’t 100%. He’ll be 16 months removed from the injury by week 1, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have a breakout year this year. He’s still unproven and still might not be 100%.

Opposite him will be Dwight Freeney, who is coming off of a season ending quad injury suffered in week 4 of last season, the first season of a two-year deal. Freeney was once a dominant edge rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end as recently as 2010. However, he fell to 33^rd in 2011 and he was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012 out of 34 eligible. Last season, Freeney had a dominant week 1 against Houston, but was just alright in the other 3 weeks before going down. He could have another solid season left in the tank, but he’s going into his age 34 season coming off of a serious injury after three years of significant decline. If he or Melvin Ingram struggle, Jeremiah Attachou, their 2^nd round pick, could have a significant role as a rookie. They’d probably prefer him to not have to play a serious role until 2015, after the aging Freeney’s impending free agency.

The Chargers have another aging outside linebacker, Jarret Johnson, a two-down run stopping linebacker who is going into his age 33 season. He’s been playing that role for a while, starting in Baltimore and now in San Diego. He played 446 snaps last season and was Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. It’s not a particularly important role, but he could easily be solid in it once again. At the very least, having Freeney and Ingram back healthy and adding Attachou to the mix will keep them from having to use the likes of Reggie Walker, Thomas Keiser, Larry English, and Tourek Williams in serious roles again.

At middle linebacker, they are banking on another player with injury issues, Donald Butler. Butler missed 3 games last season and has missed 23 games in 4 seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2010. He also struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That’s not the norm for him. He was better in 2011 and 2012, when he graded out 15th and 16th respectively, but I didn’t think he was worth much more than a one-year prove it deal this off-season. Instead, they gave him 51.8 million over 7 seasons. The Chargers can get out of the deal easily after 11.9 million over 1 year and 21 million over 3 years, but those are also both overpays. Provided he’s healthy, he should be better this season, but this was a bad deal.

Manti Te’o will continue to start next to him inside in the Chargers’ 3-4 defense. A 2013 2^nd round pick, Te’o also missed time as a rookie, missing 3 games and struggling through 538 snaps in 13 games. He could be better in 2014, but there are no guarantees. Overall, the Chargers should be healthier in their linebacking corps this season (3^rd most adjusted games lost by linebackers last season), which is good because their lack of depth was exposed last season, but they still don’t have a ton of talent in the unit.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Chargers had probably the league’s worst cornerbacks last season, a huge part of the reason why their defense was so awful last season. Shareece Wright, Richard Marshall, Derek Cox, and Johnny Patrick were their top-4 cornerbacks last season. They ranked 102th, 101st, 104th, and 94th respectively out of 110 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Cox and Patrick were let go, while the Chargers retained Shareece Wright, a 2011 3^rd round pick, for the contract year of his rookie deal and re-signed Marshall as a free agent. To help solve this problem, the Chargers used their first round pick of Jason Verrett, a cornerback out of TCU.

Verrett will probably immediately be their top cornerback, which tells you how dire their situation at the position is. Verrett could have been the top cornerback off the board if he was 5-11 instead of 5-9 and if he wasn’t coming off of shoulder surgery. He’s best on the slot, but will also have to match up against opponent’s top receivers on the outside. That’s going to be a big task for a rookie who will be behind the 8-ball in terms of practice this off-season as he rehabs that injury. Cornerbacks tend to take a year to get adjusted to the NFL anyway.

After him on the depth chart, everything is up in the air. Shareece Wright is currently penciled in as the other starter. He led Charger cornerbacks in snaps played last season (802 snaps) but, as I mentioned, he was horrible, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 102^nd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. Last season was his first year as a starter and he played a combined 124 snaps in 2011 and 2012.

Richard Marshall is another veteran holdover from last season, who graded out 101^st out of 110 eligible cornerbacks last season. He’s had some better years, like in 2011 when he graded out about average, but he’s going into his age 30 season, missed 12 games in 2012, and was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst cornerback in 2010. Steve Williams, a 2013 5^th round pick, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, is also in the mix, but only out of necessity. The fact that he could see significant snaps in 2014 is just a testament to their lack of talent at the cornerback position. He’s unlikely to play well if he does see the field.

Fortunately, things are better at safety for the Chargers. It’s probably the strength of their defense. Marcus Gilchrist played well last season in his first season after converting from cornerback. The 2011 2^nd round pick graded out significantly below average in each of his first two seasons in the league at cornerback in 2011 and 2012, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked safety last year. We’ll see if he can keep it up in 2014 in his 2^nd year starting at the position. It would be in his best interest, obviously, as he’ll be in a contract year.

Opposite him will be Eric Weddle, who was one of the top players in the NFL going into last season and remains as one of the top players in the NFL. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked safety last season, which was his worst season since 2009, when he graded out 8^th. He was 1^st in 2012 and 3^rd in both 2011 and 2010. He’s easily the only safety in the NFL to grade out top-8 in each of the last 5 seasons and only one other safety (Jairus Byrd) has even done that in each of the last 3 seasons. Weddle is also the only safety to grade out in the top-7 in each of the last 3 seasons.

Even in 2009, his “down” year, it was mostly because he missed 3 games with injury. He hasn’t missed a game since. He doesn’t get the recognition, but he’s one of the top safeties in the NFL. Unlike guys like Earl Thomas (12.8% snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage last season), Devin McCourty (9.1%), and Jairus Byrd (12.1%), who are primarily deep safeties, and guys like Kam Chancellor (69.2%), TJ Ward (65.7%), and Eric Berry (69.7%), who are primarily box safeties, Weddle is dominant in all facets of the game and can line up anywhere in the defensive backfield (46.3% of snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage last season). That’s incredibly impressive. He’s the saving grace on an otherwise weak defense.

Grade: C

Conclusion

I see the Chargers taking a step back on offense this season. Their supporting cast around Rivers offensively is pretty average and Rivers is unlikely to repeat the career year he had last year, especially without Ken Whisenhunt calling plays, in his age 33 season. It’s very hard for any quarterback to get this kind of supporting cast to be among the league’s elite offenses, but that’s what he was able to do last year.

Defensively, however, they should be a little bit better. They didn’t really add much talent to the unit this off-season and they still have a lot of problems, but they should have better injury luck after their lack of depth was badly exposed last season. The Chargers were 5th worst in adjusted games lost last season, 8th worst in adjusted games lost on defense, and 3rd worst in adjusted games lost at linebacker, which I got into detail about earlier.

Another area they were unlucky in was fumble recovery as they were 30th, recovering 39.39% of fumbles. Their -4 turnover margin might not improve drastically if Rivers throws a few more interceptions, but they should recover more fumbles and force more turnovers defensively. The Chargers should be right in the playoff mix right again. I’ll have official win projections at the end of all my season previews, but one thing that could keep them out is their schedule. They had the 26th hardest schedule last year in terms of DVOA. Now they swap out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. That could lead to an extra loss and an extra loss would have kept them out of the playoffs last season.

Season Prediction: 8-8 2nd in AFC West

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Denver Broncos 2014 NFL Season Preview

May 31, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Peyton Manning had a season for the ages in 2013. He set the single season record for passing yards (5477) and touchdowns (55) and had the 5^th highest single season quarterback rating (115.1) in NFL history. You can argue all you want about whether or not it was the greatest regular season a quarterback has ever had in NFL history (and I do here), but one thing is for sure. It was definitely the best regular season by a quarterback in the NFL last season and he deserved to be the near unanimous MVP he was, completing 68.3% of passes for an average of 8.31 YPA, 55 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

However, he’s unlikely to be that good again next season for 4 reasons. One, it’s really, really hard to be that good. There’s a reason they’re called records. Almost no one ever does that. As good of a career as Manning had had, he’s “only” posted a QB rating of 110+ twice in his career and “only” posted a QB rating of 100+ five times in his career. He’ll fall down to earth just by the law of averages next season. 9 other quarterbacks have posted QB ratings higher than 110 in their career. On average, they had a QB rating of 97.1 the following season (I used 2009 for Tom Brady’s 2007 season because he was hurt in 2008). That’s very good, but if Manning is in that 95-105 range in terms of QB rating, it’s going to have a noticeable difference for the Broncos’ offense.

The second reason is Manning’s age, as he goes into his age 38 season. No one ever had a QB rating as high as Manning’s in their age 37+ season like Manning did last season, so we’re going into fairly uncharted territory. Only 3 quarterbacks in NFL history have ever had a QB rating of even 100+ at age 37+, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and YA Tittle. In the following season, those 3 quarterbacks combined to have a QB rating of 61.7. I’m by no means suggesting that Manning is about to fall off of some sort of cliff in terms of his abilities, but his age is something to be mindful of. As we’ve seen from a number of different great quarterbacks in their late 30s, you never know they’re going to hit the wall.

The third reason is the loss of Eric Decker. This isn’t as big as the first two reasons as Manning largely made Decker into the receiver he is today and Manning can definitely make do with the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Caldwell, and Cody Latimer in that spot, but that is a big loss. The fourth reason is simply that the Broncos should face a tougher schedule this season. Manning’s 2013, as good as it was, came against a strength of schedule that ranked 31^st, according to DVOA. Even all other things the same, trading out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West could lead to an extra loss for the Broncos this season and a few points off of Manning’s QB rating.

I’m by no means suggesting that Manning is going to struggle this season or trying to pick him apart, but I’m trying to give an accurate representation of you can expect from him next season. Predicting he’s going to have another near record breaking season is short-sighted. He’ll be a little bit worse and that will have a noticeable effect on a Broncos offense that moved the chains at an 81.09% rate, about 3% better than the #2 team (San Diego at 78.26%).

In the last decade, 8 teams have scored 32+ points per game in a season, including last year’s Broncos. The previous 7 teams scored an average of 34.0 points per game and moved the chains at an 81.31% rate in that season and then scored “just” 29.2 points per game and moved the chains at a 78.08% rate the following season (again using 2009 for the 2007 Patriots because of Brady’s injury). It’s still a very good season, but it’s noticeably worse. If the Broncos are noticeably worse offensively, they’ll have to be noticeably better defensively to keep pace and win the AFC’s #1 seed again.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

One area the Broncos could actually be better on offense this season is the offensive line. That’s hard to do, considering they ranked 1^st in the NFL in pass block efficiency, but a lot of that had to do with Peyton Manning’s fantastic pocket presence. Manning was sacked on just 11.0% of pressured snaps, best among 26 eligible quarterbacks, and took just 2.33 seconds from snap to throw, 3^rd quickest in the NFL. He does a very good job of protecting his own blindside, but now the Broncos’ offensive line could be even more talented as Manning will get his blindside protector back in the person of Ryan Clady.

Clady went down for the season week 2 after 146 snaps, tearing ligaments in his foot. Clady was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked offensive tackle in 2012. He won’t necessarily be that good again as he’s coming off of injury and that’s easily the best season of his career. The 2008 first round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked offensive tackle in 2008, 16^th ranked in 2009, 9^th ranked in 2010, but 63^rd ranked in 2011. However, having him back on the blindside is an obvious positive for this team.

Clady will essentially replace Zane Beadles in the starting lineup, with Beadles taking a big contract in Jacksonville. Beadles has had some solid years, but was their only offensive line starter to grade out below average on Pro Football Focus last season so the Beadles for Clady swap on the offensive line should be beneficial, provided some players can adapt to their new positions. Those two players are Chris Clark and Orlando Franklin.

Chris Clark was a savior for the Broncos upfront last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked offensive tackle and making 14 starts at left tackle after Clady went down. Clark is still a one year wonder, as the 2008 undrafted free agent out of Southern Mississippi had played just 226 career snaps before last season, but he’ll be moving to the easier side of the offensive line, going to right tackle, and should continue to hold up as a solid starter. Just in case he doesn’t, the Broncos used a 3^rd round pick on Michael Schofield to provide insurance on the right side.

Orlando Franklin will move to left guard from right tackle to replace Beadles. That’s the riskier move as Franklin was playing so well at right tackle over the past two seasons. The 2011 2^nd round pick does have some left guard experience from college and left guard is generally an easier position to play, but Franklin was Pro Football Focus’ 18^th and 17^th ranked offensive tackle in 2012 and 2013 respectively and there’s no guarantee he’ll be as good inside. If Clark at right tackle and Franklin at left guard doesn’t work out, the Broncos could move Franklin back to right tackle and use Will Montgomery at left guard or use Will Montgomery at center and move Manny Ramirez to left guard.

Montgomery was a free agent acquisition and he is currently slated to backup Ramirez at center. However, he’s been a solid starter at center for the Redskins over the past few seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th, 5^th, and 15^th ranked center in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s going into his age 31 season, which is part of why the Redskins let him go (he was also a bad scheme fit for their new power blocking scheme), but the versatile veteran should be able to provide solid play if needed to step in at either left guard or center.

Ramirez, meanwhile, came out of nowhere to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked center last season. Like Montgomery, he’s a veteran with versatility, as he’s going into his age 31 season with the versatility to also play guard. He had a better 2013 than Montgomery obviously, but he was a generally mediocre interior offensive lineman before last season and he didn’t play a snap in either 2010 or 2011. He was solid at guard for the Broncos in 2012, but struggled mightily at guard for the Lions in 2009.

Besides Clady, the only one really locked into his spot is Louis Vasquez, who had a solid 4-year stint in San Diego before taking his game to the next level after signing with the Broncos as a free agent last off-season. He graded out 27^th, 26^th, 30^th, and 13^th respectively from 2009-2012 before grading out 3^rd last season. There’s no guarantee he’ll be quite that good again and he has some injury history, missing 11 games in 5 seasons and only once playing all 16 games, but it’s worth noting he had his best season in San Diego in his final year with the team and he’s only missed 1 game in the last 2 seasons. Going into his age 27 season, Vasquez appears to be in the prime of his career and one of the best guards in the game.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned earlier that Eric Decker left this off-season, but the two Thomases (Demaryius and Julius) still remain. Demaryius has broken out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL statistically over the past 2 seasons, combining to catch 186 passes for 2864 yards and 26 touchdowns in those 2 years. Obviously, Peyton Manning’s arrival had something to do with that, but the 2010 1^st round pick had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs, with Tim Tebow in 2011. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. He was 3^rd in the NFL in YAC per catch last season and graded out 6^th and 10^th in 2012 and 2013 respectively on Pro Football Focus’ wide receiver rankings in terms of pure pass catching grade and they generally do a very good job of grading receivers on their own merits. He’s also one of the better blocking wide receivers in the NFL.

Manning’s arrival obviously helped, but it’s very possible that he’s just a supremely talented wide receiver who finally adjusted to the NFL in the middle of the 2011 season, once he had some time in the league and put his injuries behind him (11 games missed in 2010-2011). With Manning throwing to him, he’s even more dangerous and Manning has a 124.4 QB rating when throwing to him over the past 2 seasons. Argue how good he’d be without Manning all you want, but there’s no denying he’s one of 10 or 15 true #1 receivers in the NFL at the very least. Going into only his age 26 season and a contract year, there’s no reason to believe he’ll stop producing.

Julius Thomas’ production might be more the product of Peyton Manning. Thomas is a widely athletic former college basketball player who was drafted in the 4^th round in 2011 and had caught 1 pass on 50 snaps in the 2 seasons prior to last year. Last season, he caught 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s a solid pass catcher, but he’s a one year wonder and he benefits a lot from having Peyton Manning under center. He’s also an awful blocker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked tight end in run blocking grade.

Wes Welker is also still around. He “only” played 503 pass snaps last season in 13 games (38.7 pass snaps per game) as opposed to 697 pass snaps for Thomas in 16 games (43.6 pass snaps per game) and 675 pass snaps for Decker in 16 games (42.2 pass snaps per game). He’ll play a bigger role with Decker gone, as he’ll become the #2 wide receiver. However, he’s an aging player going into his age 33 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Welker is “only” 47^th in all-time receiving yards.

He definitely showed some of this deterioration last season, missing 3 games with injury and averaging 1.64 yards per route run, pretty middle of the pack, especially considering he had the best quarterback in the NFL throwing passes to him. For comparison, he averaged 2.19 yards per route run in 2012 with the Patriots. Meanwhile, his replacement in New England, Julian Edelman, averaged 1.78 yards per route run despite having an inferior quarterback throwing passes to him.

Edelman did get more targets as he was a bigger part of New England’s offense, but he also caught a significantly higher percentage of his targets (71.9% to 67.0%) even though he commanded more of the defense’s attention. As a result, Edelman was Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked wide receiver in pass catching grade, while Welker came in at 37^th. The Patriots offense wasn’t as good last season without Welker, but that was largely a result of the absence of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. They shouldn’t have paid Danny Amendola all that money, but they made the right decision letting Welker go. He’ll be a contributor this year in Denver, but he’s on the decline.

Emmanuel Sanders, Cody Latimer, and Andre Caldwell will try to fill Decker’s void as the #3 wide receiver and #2 outside receiver (with Welker moving to the #2 wide receiver role). Sanders is the heavy favorite for that role, by virtue of the 3-year, 15 million dollar deal he signed this off-season. He’s caught 111 passes for 1366 yards and 7 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons as a significant contributor in Pittsburgh, including a starting role in 2013. Sanders graded out very middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, grading out 57th and 60th respectively in 2012 and 2013 among wide receivers, while averaging 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run. He should be more productive in Denver with Manning, but he’s pretty much “just a guy” at wide receiver.

Cody Latimer, 2^nd round pick rookie, could push him later in the season. Caldwell will probably just provide depth, as he has for the duration of his career. He caught 16 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns on 143 pass snaps last season. Lastly, Virgil Green is their primary blocking tight end. He played 323 snaps, including 258 blocking snaps (209 run blocking, 49 pass blocking). He’s decent at what he does. Overall, it’s an inferior receiving corps compared to last year, with Decker gone and Welker aging, but there’s a lot of talent here still obviously.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Broncos lost 3 starters on offense this off-season. I already mentioned Zane Beadles and Eric Decker, but they also lost starting running back Knowshon Moreno. This loss won’t be as big of a loss as Eric Decker. Like Beadles, it should be a pretty irrelevant loss. Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage last season (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but as much production as Moreno had last year, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning.

Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He was just Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked running back in terms of running grade. He’s a talented pass catcher and pass protector, but he’s an average runner at best. He’s also a one year wonder essentially, missing 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons.

Montee Ball should be able to replace him pretty easily. The 2013 2^nd round pick rushed for 559 yards and 4 touchdowns on 120 carries and caught 20 passes for 145 yards. He’s probably a more talented runner than Moreno, but the one thing that could derail him is fumbles. He fumbled three times last season on those 140 touches. If he needs to be benched for fumble problems, they don’t have many other options. Ronnie Hillman is one option, an undersized 2012 3^rd round pick with 162 career touches. CJ Anderson is the other option. He has more size at 5-8 223 and can carry more of a load, but he has just 7 touches and was undrafted in 2013. The organization is high on him though.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Broncos’ offense should be inferior in 2014 as compared to 2013, their defense should be improved, which is what they’ll need if they’re going to get their 3^rd straight #1 seed in the AFC. They had a solid pass rush last season, with 41 sacks (13^th in the NFL) and ranking 13^th in the NFL in team pass rush grade on Pro Football Focus. However, they should be even better this season in that aspect.

One reason for that is the addition of DeMarcus Ware, who they signed to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season. That deal was an overpay, especially since the first two seasons are completely guaranteed, as he’s a declining player going into his age 32 season. However, he should still be an upgrade over Shaun Phillips, who wasn’t as good as his 11 sacks would have suggested last season (just 4 hits and 32 hurries on 478 pass rush snaps).

While Ware is declining, that’s only because he was a top-4 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2008-2011. He “only” graded out 8^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2012 and 8^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013. Those days of being an elite player are probably gone, as he goes into his age 32 season and after missing the first 3 games of his career last year, but he should still be a well above average starter and an asset for this team, especially on passing downs. He had 6 sacks, 8 hits, and 34 hurries on 372 pass rush snaps (a 12.9% pass rush rate). He’ll probably play primarily on passing downs because of how much depth the Broncos have (more on that later), though they’re paying Ware way too much for him to primarily be a nickel rusher.

The other reason the Broncos’ pass rush should be better this season is the return of Von Miller from injury. Miller tore his ACL week 16 last season so there’s no guarantee he’ll be healthy for the start of the season or that he’ll be 100% all year. Remember, his suffered his injury even later than Rob Gronkowski did last season and everyone is worried about his availability for the start of the season. However, he doesn’t have the injury history Gronk does and there’s a very good chance the Broncos get Miller for more games than they did last year (9 games, including 0 playoff games). Miller missed the first 6 games of last season with suspension.

Plus, even if Miller isn’t at 100%, he’ll still be a huge asset for this team. At his best, Miller is one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL. The 2^nd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Miller won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2011 and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker by a wide margin. That margin was even wider in 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ #3 ranked defensive player regardless of any position and got a Defensive Player of the Year vote (the only other player to get a vote besides JJ Watt).

He only played 9 games and 552 snaps in 2013, but he was still Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker by a wide margin and their #4 ranked defensive player regardless of position. He had 6 sacks, 8 hits, and 27 hurries on 256 pass rush snaps (16.0% rate) and also excelled as a run defender and held up in coverage on the 75 snaps when he was asked to drop. He plays strong side outside linebacker in base packages and moves down to the defensive line and rushes the passer in sub packages. He might not be 100% until 2015 and he needs to stay out of off-the-field trouble, but he should still be a big time asset for them this season. At the very least, having him around for the playoffs when they didn’t last season is going to be valuable for them.

I mentioned the Broncos’ defensive line depth earlier. Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson are base defensive ends who can move inside to defensive tackle on passing downs. Jackson is the better of the two. The 2012 5^th round pick had a breakout year in 2013, after 120 nondescript snaps as a rookie. He played 601 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle in 2013.

He’s still a one year wonder, but he’s an obvious asset with the versatility to rush the passer from the inside on passing downs and also provide enough depth at defensive end that Ware can keep his snap count down somewhat and focus more on being a sub rusher. Jackson played a fair amount of defensive end in college. The reason he’ll need to play more defensive end than last season is that the Broncos lost Robert Ayers to the Giants. Ayers was solid on 516 snaps last season and his immediate replacement is Quanterus Smith, a 2013 5^th round pick coming off of a torn ACL.

While Jackson is the better player, Derek Wolfe will be the other starter opposite Ware, allowing Jackson to focus primarily on defensive tackle. Wolfe graded out poorly on Pro Football Focus last season, grading out as their 46^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 52 eligible. However, he was a fairly productive pass rusher with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 28 hurries on 370 pass rush snaps (11.4%), lining up both inside and outside. The 2012 2^nd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 54^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible in 2012. Unfortunately, he missed from week 12 in 2013 on with seizure-like symptoms, but he’s supposed to be ready to go for training camp.

Terrance Knighton and Sylvester Williams will be the starters at defensive tackle, but they have so much depth on the defensive line that both with rotate heavily. Knighton will probably play more snaps than Williams because he’s the better player, but even he only played 604 snaps last season. Knighton broke out in his first year in Denver, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked defensive tackle. He was one of 5 defensive tackles (Ndamukong Suh, Randy Starks, Marcell Dareus, Brandon Mebane) to grade out top-15 in pass rushing and run stuffing among defensive tackles.

A 6-3 320 pounder with rare movement skills for his size, Knighton followed up his dominant regular season with an even stronger post-season, including a dominant, disruptive performance in the AFC Championship game against New England. He’s still a one year wonder, as he was pretty much just an average starter in the first 4 years of his career in Jacksonville, but he’s still relatively young (going into his age 28 season) so the notion that last year’s breakout season could become the new normal for him is hardly farfetched. He’s an excellent scheme fit in defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s system. Del Rio was the head coach who drafted him in the 3^rd round of the 2009 NFL Draft with Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, Sylvester Williams was a 2013 1^st round pick who played 300 nondescript snaps as a rookie. He’ll have a bigger role this season and could easily be very ready for it. I mentioned that Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson will rotate inside on passing downs. They also have more depth inside in the form of veterans Mitch Unrein and Kevin Vickerson. Unrein played 357 snaps in 16 games last season and provided decent depth. He should consider himself lucky if he plays the same role this season, barring injuries. Vickerson, meanwhile, played 402 snaps in 11 games last season before going down with an injury. Going into his age 31 season with an unspectacular history and talent ahead of him on the depth chart, he should have a smaller role this season, again, barring injury.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned that Miller plays strong side outside linebacker in base packages. That’s obviously the less important part of his role, but it’s one he excels in anyway. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in run stopping grade by a wide margin in each of the last 3 seasons, doing so last year despite missing roughly half the season. If he misses games this season, the Broncos have a number of guys who can fill in. Obviously none of them will be nearly as good in that role as Miller, but it’s not a particularly important role, the two-down linebacker role, so it’s not a huge issue.

Middle linebacker is the bigger issue. They lost Wesley Woodyard to free agency, but, after some solid years earlier in his career, he struggled in his contract year, even losing snaps down the stretch to the archaic Paris Lenon. Lenon is still a free agent, but he’s going into his age 37 season and hasn’t been good for close to 5 years so he’s not an option at the position. Jamar Chaney is currently penciled in as the starter at the position. The former Eagle has struggled mightily whenever he’s been counted on his career, including a starting job in 2011 when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 45^th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 eligible. He’s a special teamer at best and wasn’t in the league at all last season.

Nate Irving is another option, but the 2011 3^rd round pick has never developed into the starter he was supposed to be and is now already going into his 4^th year in the league. He’s played 322 nondescript snaps in 3 seasons, 280 of which came last season as a two-down base linebacker when Miller was hurt. He’s alright in run support, but unproven and possibly incapable in coverage. He’s also unproven at middle linebacker and it’s very telling that when Woodyard struggled down the stretch last season, they turned to Lenon instead of Irving.

5^th round rookie Lamin Barrow is another option, but if they have to count on him for big snaps as a rookie, they’re in trouble. Whoever doesn’t start at middle linebacker will probably play early season snaps in the two-down outside role if needed. They could also rotate snaps at middle linebacker if none of these options prove anything, which could be very likely. I don’t know why they didn’t address this position in the draft until the 5^th round when it was their one hole in the starting lineup.

With Miller’s injury and their incompetence at middle linebacker, the only spot in the linebacking corps that isn’t in doubt is the weakside spot, where Danny Trevathan is the starter. The 2012 6^th round pick played 243 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but moved into an every down role in 2013, playing 962 snaps and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. He’s still just a one year wonder, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he had another strong season on the outside as he goes into only his age 24 season. The 6-0 237 pounder is best in coverage, but has developed into a pretty solid player against the run as well.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Broncos’ big off-season acquisition in the secondary was Aqib Talib, who they gave a 6-year, 57 million dollar contract. However, they lost Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who had a fantastic season last season. There’s obvious debate about DRC’s consistency and whether or not he would have been as good as that again this season, but it’s unlikely that Talib will be as good as DRC was last season. Last season, DRC was Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked cornerback, 4^th in pure coverage grade, and his 44.1% completion percentage allowed was 2nd best at his position.

I don’t get the appeal of giving Talib that kind of money. He’s never made it through a full 16 game season, missing 23 games in 6 seasons since being drafted in the 1st round in 2008. He also has a variety of off-the-field problems in his past. He’s definitely flashed from time-to-time, for instance when he allowed 13 of 33 completion through 6 games last year with the Patriots, picking off 4 passes in the process, but then he suffered another injury, missed 3 games, and wasn’t the same upon return, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 58th ranked cornerback by regular season’s end. And then, he got hurt in the AFC Championship game again, the 2nd time he had done that in as many years.

He’s never graded out higher than 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and, after a rough contract year in 2012, in which he missed 6 games with injury and suspension and got traded for a mid-round pick to New England, he was forced to settle for a one-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. He was Pro Football Focus’ 69^th ranked cornerback in 2012 in composite grade (combining his grades in New England and Tampa Bay). He was better in 2013, but why is he suddenly worth 57 million over 6 years? Who is to say he doesn’t just coast and/or get in trouble again?

Opposite Talib, the Broncos are hoping to be able to play Chris Harris. However, Harris tore his ACL back in January, which is going to make it tough for him to return for the start of the season. Even when he returns, he might not be 100% all season. At his best, he’s a great cornerback though. As a pure slot cornerback in part-time work as an undrafted rookie in 2011, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked cornerback on just 465 snaps. Over the past two seasons as a full-time starter, he’s graded out 5^th and 11^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Only Jason McCourty and Richard Sherman also graded out top-11 among cornerbacks in each of the last 2 seasons. His specialty is the slot as he’s ranked 2^nd and 5^th in 2012 and 2013 respectively in QB rating allowed on the slot. That’s where he’ll be missed the most, but he’s also an outside cornerback in base packages.

When Harris is healthy, either Bradley Roby, Tony Carter, or Kayvon Webster will be the #3 cornerback and play outside in sub packages, with Harris moving inside. Roby is the heavy favorite for that role, even though cornerbacks tend to take a year to get adjusted to the NFL, because of his status as a 1^st round pick (31^st overall). Carter and Webster will provide competition though. Carter randomly had a strong 2012 season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28^th ranked cornerback on just 511 snaps and allowing 49.2% completion. However, he struggled mightily on just 270 snaps in 2013. That’s probably more representative of the type of player he is. The 2009 undrafted free agent played a combined 68 snaps from 2009-2011. Webster, meanwhile, was a 3^rd round pick in 2013 and struggled some on 489 snaps as a rookie. He could be better in 2014, but there’s no guarantee. If Harris misses time at the start of the season, either Webster or Carter will play a bigger role.

At safety, the Broncos will be getting Rahim Moore back from injury. Moore suffered a rare, non-contact leg injury week 12 last season and missed the remainder of the year. It recently came out that Moore could have lost his leg or even died had he waited 12-24 extra hours to consult a doctor and go in for surgery. However, he’s reportedly as strong as ever now and ready for training camp and week 1. His re-addition at full strength will be a welcome one. While he’s best known for screwing up royally on the Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones Hail Mary in the Broncos’ eventual playoff loss to the Ravens in 2012, Moore is a solid player. You can’t judge him based solely on that one snap. He was Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked safety in 2012 and he graded out about average in 2013 before the injury.

Opposite him, the Broncos will start free agent addition TJ Ward. Ward is one of the best safeties in the NFL. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He was also 13th in 2011, despite missing 8 games with injury. That was really his only injury plagued season as he missed 2 games in his other 3 seasons combined, playing 54 games in 4 seasons, starting each of them and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. Kam Chancellor and Eric Berry give him some competition for the title, but, in my opinion, Ward is the best strong safety in the NFL. His strength is obviously the run, but he holds up in coverage as well.

The Broncos got a steal by signing him to a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal this off-season. He undoubtedly gave them a discount because they were a contender, after he spent the first 4 years of his career on a losing team in Cleveland. He’ll be a significant upgrade over Duke Ihenacho, who was the starter last season. Ihenacho, a 2012 undrafted free agent, struggled in his first year as a starter, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 74^th ranked safety out of 86 eligible, after not playing a single snap as a rookie. Ihenacho will now slot in as the 3^rd safety in a pure depth role, which suits his skill set better.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

As I mentioned already, I expect the Broncos’ offense to be inferior to last year’s version. Manning is aging. Eric Decker is gone. Most importantly, they’re going to fall back down to earth just by the law of averages. They’ll still be one of the top offenses in the NFL, if not the top, but they’ll be noticeably worse and need to play better defensively. I think they will. The loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurts, but they add TJ Ward and DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib can be at least a solid replacement. They should also have Von Miller around for longer this season.

The Broncos have won 13 games in each of the last 2 seasons and gotten a first round bye. I think they certainly have the talent to do that again. They didn’t have an unsustainably good turnover margin last season and they didn’t have unsustainably good injury luck. In fact, they ranked 24^th in adjusted games lost and actually had a fumble recovery rate of 37.74%, which was 2^nd worst in the NFL. Given how good of a quarterback they have, it’s surprising they didn’t have at least a solid turnover margin last season, even as unpredictable as turnovers are.

If they have average injury luck, a solid turnover margin, and their defense performs as well as they can, they could be an even better team than they were last season, even if their offense declines noticeably. Remember, this team ranked 1^st in rate of moving the chains differential last season by a whole percent over the 2^nd place team (9.23% to New Orleans’ 8.13%). I’m going to do an official wins prediction at the end of all my team previews, but I expect them to finish with a large amount of wins. One thing that could derail their bid for a 3^rd straight #1 seed in the AFC is a tougher schedule.

Season Prediction: 12-4 1st in AFC West

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