Pittsburgh Steelers 2014 Off-Season Report

February 13, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Steelers, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Steelers started the season 0-4, so it was pretty impressive the way they were able to finish their season, coming within a missed call in the Chiefs/Chargers game of making the playoffs. The big difference was their improved turnover margin. After a -9 turnover margin in their first 4 games, they had a +5 turnover margin in their final 12 games, going 8-4 in those 12 games. That shouldn’t have been surprising considering how inconsistent and unreliable turnover margins can be.

The Steelers finished just 8-8, but they were better than their record. They finished 13^th in rate of moving the chains differential, 3^rd best among non-playoff teams, behind only Detroit and Arizona, and best among non-playoff teams in the AFC. I think that bodes well for their playoff chances next year. That being said, the construction of next season’s Steelers team is still up in the air. They still have an aging roster with very little cap space. We’ll see where they are in 4 months.

Positional Needs

Safety

Troy Polamalu had a strong season last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked safety last season. However, he’s still missed 22 games over the past 5 seasons and going into his age 33 season. The cap strapped Steelers will probably consider cutting him going into his contract year, a move that would save them 8.25 million on the cap and in cash. Opposite him, Ryan Clark is a free agent. He was decent last season, but he’s clearly on the decline and going into his age 35 season. He’s already considering retirement. 2013 4^th round pick Shamarko Thomas could be a future starter, but he’s just one player.

Wide Receiver

Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders are both free agents this off-season so that leaves the Steelers with 2013 3rd round pick Markus Wheaton after Antonio Brown on the depth chart with absolutely no depth. Wheaton still has promise, but he played just 161 snaps as a rookie, catching 6 passes. If they don’t re-sign one or both of Cotchery and Sanders, they’ll be looking at wide receivers early in the draft.

Defensive End

Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood are both free agents. Keisel is a declining player going into his age 36 season, while Hood has been a massive bust since being drafted in the first round in 2009. They can’t really count on either of them in 2014. Cameron Heyward has one starting 5-technique spot locked up, but they’ll need a starter opposite him for the future and some depth.

Cornerback

William Gay and Cortez Allen are two solid cornerbacks, but they’ll need a third for the future. Ike Taylor is going into his age 34 season and could easily be a cap casualty this off-season, which would save them 7 million in cap space and cash going into his contract year, a very smart move for a cap strapped team like the Steelers. Taylor struggled mightily in 2014, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade, allowing a league leading 1043 yards receiving in his area of coverage.

Offensive Tackle

Mike Adams was the left tackle to start the season, but he was benched and replaced with Levi Brown, who was acquired via trade. However, he never even made it on the field for the Steelers, tearing his triceps within a week. He’s suffered that injury in back-to-back seasons and wasn’t great before that, so it’s highly unlikely that they pay him 6 million in his age 30 season in 2014, when they can cut him penalty free. Kelvin Beachum then took over at left tackle and he’s been below average. The Steelers need to improve Ben Roethlisberger’s blindside protection.

Middle Linebacker

The Steelers lost starter Larry Foote to injury after week 1. Vince Williams, a 6^th round rookie, took over eventually, next to established starter Lawrence Timmons. He wasn’t terrible, especially for a 6^th round rookie, and he could develop into a starter long-term, but he could have been better. Larry Foote probably isn’t back, as a mediocre linebacker going into his age 34 season and coming off of a significant injury, so they could use another veteran in the mix to push Williams.

Kick Returner

Felix Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jonathan Dwyer combined to take back 37 of 43 kickoffs for the Steelers and all 3 of them are free agents this off-season. None of them were particularly good anyway, as the Steelers ranked 21^st in the NFL, returning kickoffs for an average of 22.4 yards per. They could use a mid to late round pick on a kickoff return specialist.

Punter

Mat McBriar is a free agent and if he’s not retained, they’ll need a new punter. He struggled anyway, as he averaged just 39.8 yards per punt and 34.5 net yards per punt.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jason Worilds

A talented reserve in the first three years of his career, Worilds, a 2010 2^nd round pick, had a breakout year in 2013. The Steelers cut veteran James Harrison in the off-season and were expecting 1^st round pick Jarvis Jones to take his spot. Instead, it was Worilds, who played 792 snaps, most among Steelers outside linebackers, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker this season. There isn’t room for the Steelers to have Jarvis Jones, LaMarr Woodley, and Worilds under their cap, considering how cap strapped they are, but they may make LaMarr Woodley, an overpaid declining player, a post-June 1^st cap casualty and use the freed up cap space to bring back Worilds. Wherever he ends up, I imagine him getting a multi-year deal worth upwards of 5 million yearly.

S Ryan Clark

Ryan Clark was still a solid starter last season, but he was a far cry from his 2008-2012 form, a stretch in which he finished in the top-25 among safety on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons and maxed out at 9^th in 2012. Considering his age, as he’s going into his age 35 season, that’s very understandable and it’s probably not going to get any better. He could still be brought back as a starter by the Steelers, but he also might retire. It’s hard to see him signing anywhere else other than Pittsburgh, but stranger things have happened. Either way, it’s probably going to be a one, maybe two year deal.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

A decent starter and nothing more, Emmanuel Sanders took Mike Wallace’s spot in the starting lineup this season and caught a career high 67 passes for 740 yards and 6 touchdowns on 108 targets and 557 routes run. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s a decent, cheap starter or #3 receiver for any receiver needy team on a budget. The Steelers will probably try to bring him back at the right price.

C Fernando Velasco

Fernando Velasco randomly had a great season in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked center in his first year as a starter. He was given a 2^nd round tender by the Titans after that season, but eventually he was made a final cut, a pretty surprising move. Perhaps he was proving to be a one year wonder in Training Camp and wasn’t living up to his salary. The Steelers scooped him up to replace Maurkice Pouncey after he tore his ACL week 1 and while he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in 2012, he was still a welcome addition for the Steelers’ offensive line, though he did suffer injuries of his own. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals this off-season again, but he’s a starting caliber player.

DE Brett Keisel

Keisel was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end as recently as 2011, but he’s turned in two very pedestrian seasons since. Going into his age 35 season, there’s a chance he could retire. If he doesn’t, he’s probably looking at one year deals, though he should still be given a chance to contribute as a rotational player or starter. It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Steelers to bring him back if he were interested.

RB Jonathan Dwyer

Jonathan Dwyer was actually the Steelers’ leading rusher in 2012, leading the way with 632 yards and 2 touchdowns on 156 carries. He was a little overstretched in that role, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry and is better suited for a backup role. He carried the ball 49 times in 2013, which is much more appropriate. He’ll be looking at short-term deals and backup roles on the open market this off-season.

WR Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery was a 1000 yard receiver in 2007 with the Jets and isn’t even that old, but he hasn’t been putting up the same numbers in Pittsburgh. Last season was his best since 2009 as Cotchery had a bigger role with Mike Wallace gone. He caught 46 passes for 602 yards and 10 touchdowns on 74 targets and 455 pass routes run. He’s going into his age 32 season so his best days are behind him, but he’s a solid depth receiver at the very least.

DE Ziggy Hood

A first round pick in 2009 by the Steelers, Hood was supposed to be a key cog on this Pittsburgh defense for the future. Instead, he’s been a massive bust. A key contributor since 2010, Hood has graded as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd lowest ranked, lowest ranked, 4^th lowest ranked, and 2^nd lowest ranked 3-4 defensive end respectively. His phone shouldn’t ring for a while.

P Mat McBriar

Mat McBriar was once a great punter, but he struggled mightily this season, after being signed off the streets mid-season, as he averaged just 39.8 yards per punt and 34.5 net yards per punt. Time will tell if he gets another chance, going into his age 35 season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OT Levi Brown

Levi Brown has played a combined 269 snaps over the past 2 seasons thanks to two separate triceps tears, the latter of which was suffered after the Cardinals shipped him to Pittsburgh for a late round pick. He suffered the injury in practice before he could ever play a snap with the Steelers. And it’s not like he’s been a good player in the past. The 5^th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, Brown is a massive bust that has gotten way too many chances to shed the label. Before the last two injury plagued seasons, Brown was ProFootballFocus’ 57th ranked offensive tackle (out of 76) in 2011, 78th ranked offensive tackles (out of 78) in 2010, and 72nd ranked offensive tackle (out of 77) in 2009. Going into his age 30 season and owed 6.25 million, there’s no reason the Steelers keep him around, especially since they can cut him penalty free.

CB Ike Taylor

Ike Taylor is going into his age 34 season and could easily be a cap casualty this off-season, which would save them 7 million in cap space and cash going into his contract year, a very smart move for a cap strapped team like the Steelers. Taylor struggled mightily in 2014, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade, allowing a league leading 1043 yards receiving in his area of coverage.

MLB Larry Foote

Larry Foote was Pro Football Focus’ 46^th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible in 2012 and he was going into age 33 season in 2013. Still, the Steelers decided re-signing him with a cheap 3-year deal was their best option at middle linebacker. Foote lasted one game before going down with injury and in his absence, 6^th round rookie Vince Williams proved to be a cheaper and probably better replacement. With Foote now going into his age 34 season, he’s unlikely to be brought back at his 1.5 million dollar salary. The Steelers can save 1.17 million on the cap by cutting him, not a ton, but enough for this cap strapped team to pull the trigger.

OLB LaMarr Woodley

Cutting LaMarr Woodley would actually cost the Steelers cap space, so they’d have to cut him as a post-June 1^st cut if they’re going to cut him. That being said, there’s some merit to them doing that. His cap number is going to be 13.59 million if they don’t cut him and they can free up a lot of cap space by cutting him as a post-June 1^st cut. He’s a declining player going into his age 30 season and he’s maxed out at 641 snaps played in the first 3 years of his extension from 2011-2013 thanks to injury and declining play. The Steelers can go forward with Jarvis Jones and Jason Worilds as the starters at the position going forward and be younger and more explosive, but they need some cap space and Woodley to be out of the way in order to re-sign the free agent Worilds, who had a breakout year this season.

S Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu had a strong season last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked safety last season. However, he’s still missed 22 games over the past 5 seasons and going into his age 33 season. The cap strapped Steelers will probably consider cutting him going into his contract year, a move that would save them 8.25 million on the cap and in cash. Extending him to a short-term deal that lowers his cap number for this season would make more sense to me though.

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Chicago Bears 2014 Off-Season Preview

February 9, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Bears, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

Die hard Bears fans probably didn’t recognize the team at all last season. Their offense was as good as it’s been in years, a big change for a franchise that is not usually good offensively. However, their defense was as bad as it’s been in years and potentially one of the worst defenses in franchise history, considering how good their defense has almost always been. They moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, 4^th best in the NFL, but they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 76.92% rate, 2^nd worst in the NFL. As a result, they missed the playoffs once again.

What happened to their defense? Well, it was a combination of age, injuries, and departed coaches. The Bears came into 2013 with 4 defensive starters over 30 and all 4 had down seasons. Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman both missed significant time with injury and were shells of their former selves when on the field. Julius Peppers also struggled by his standards and even Tim Jennings, the youngest of the bunch, wasn’t as good as he’s been in the past. Also, in addition to the injuries suffered by Briggs and Tillman, they were dealt a significant blow when Henry Melton, their best young player, tore his ACL early in the season. Their run defense never recovered.

They also really missed Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, their long-time head coach and his trusted defensive coordinator. Their absences were probably just as much why some of their players declined as age. Even under 30 players like Chris Conte and Major Wright struggled by their standards this season, while James Anderson struggled mightily as a free agent addition and youngsters Jon Bostic and Shea McClellin did not develop. The downgrade from Marinelli to Mel Tucker was significant.

Firing Lovie Smith wasn’t all bad though. Lovie Smith’s biggest issue was that he continually hired incompetent coordinators to run his offense, guys like Ron Turner, Mike Martz, and Mike Tice. New head coach Marc Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer are both great offensive minds that were able to turn this into one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Alshon Jeffery broke out as a legitimate outside receiving threat opposite Brandon Marshall and the addition of Martellus Bennett in free agency gave them a significant upgrade at tight end over the overmatched Kellen Davis. They stopped messing around with the offensive line and brought in 4 new starters, two in free agency, Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson, and two in the draft, Kyle Long and Jordan Mills. Those 4 and center Roberto Garza each made all 16 starts this season on a much improved offensive line. It didn’t even matter if Jay Cutler was out there or not because they were able to coach journeyman backup Josh McCown into strong play for a short period of time, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

All that being said, I don’t really believe the Bears are in a better position now than where they were a year ago. They fired Lovie Smith despite an 81-63 record in 9 seasons and a Super Bowl appearance in 2005 because he had made the playoffs just once in the past 6 seasons. He and Rod Marinelli were strong defensive minds, but they never had a strong offensive mind. Now, Trestman and Kromer are strong offensive minds, but they don’t have a strong defensive mind. Trestman’s willingness to stick with Mel Tucker at defensive coordinator despite such an awful defensive season last year is very much Lovie Smith-like. The Bears are no less stuck in the mud than they were a year ago.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

Corey Wootton is a free agent this off-season, while Julius Peppers is as close to being a sure thing cap casualty as you can be. The Bears drafted Shea McClellin in the first round in 2012, but he’s been a bust thus far. He played just 368 snaps as a rookie and then struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst 4-3 defensive end. He’s being moved to outside linebacker for 2014 so the Bears really have nothing at the defensive end position right now. They’ll need at least one, if not two new starters at the defensive end position this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

The Bears run defense was terrible this season as they couldn’t handle the loss of Henry Melton, who tore his ACL early in the season. They couldn’t really replace him. Stephen Paea was alright, but Landon Cohen struggled mightily went counted upon. Things were so bad that they signed Jay Ratliff off the streets. He’s not a long-term option, going into his age 33 season after struggling through injuries over the past couple of seasons.

Safety

Major Wright and Chris Conte both struggled mightily this season at safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus worst ranked and 4^th worst ranked safeties respectively this season. They’ve both been better in the past, but Wright is a free agent this off-season and unlikely to be retained, while Conte will be a free agent next off-season. It’s a position they’ll need to address this off-season.

Cornerback

The Bears re-signed Tim Jennings to a 4-year deal this off-season, but they still have 4 free agents at the cornerback position this off-season, including Charles Tillman, a long-time starter who is unlikely to be retained, coming off of a rough season in which he missed significant time with injury and going into his age 33 season. They’ll need a new starter opposite Jennings this off-season. Jennings is also going into his age 31 season and probably won’t make it through all 4 seasons of his contract.

Outside Linebacker

James Anderson was awful this season at outside linebacker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker this past season. Lance Briggs was better opposite him, but he wasn’t his best and missed 7 games with injury. That’s to be expected as he’s going into his age 34 season and he won’t be able to be counted on for much longer. Shea McClellin will be converting to outside linebacker and they have 2013 4^th round pick Khaseem Greene in the mix as well, but they can’t count on either of them as long-term starters at the position either. They should try to add someone else to the mix this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

Jon Bostic took over as a starter as a 2^nd round rookie, but finished as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked middle linebacker. There shouldn’t be a ton of concern right now as he was only a rookie, but there’s already been some talk of moving him to outside linebacker, where he would be a better fit and potentially help solve another problem. They could add a cheap veteran or a late round pick to the mix at this position this off-season.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are among the top wide receiver duos in the NFL, but the Bears’ depth behind them is pretty limited, especially if they cut marginal slot receiver Earl Bennett. They could add a mid-round or late-round pick on a depth receiver.

Offensive Tackle

Every single one of the Bears’ starting offensive linemen played at least 1022 snaps and no one missed more than 48 snaps. There’s something to be said for continuity, but right tackle Jordan Mills actually really struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked offensive tackle last season, allowing a league worst 62 quarterback hurries. He could be better in his 2^nd season in the league in 2014, but he was just a 5^th round pick. They should consider some competition at the position.

Center

The Bears might not be able to keep all 5 starters on their offensive line because center Roberto Garza is a free agent. He’s going into his age 35 season in 2014 and has been very inconsistent in the past. If they don’t bring him back, they’ll have to replace him because they don’t have an internal replacement.

Punter

Adam Podlesh struggled as the Bears’ punter this season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst punter as the Bears ranked dead last in the NFL in punting average and 4^th worst in net punting average. They can easily cut him this off-season and replace him with at least a league average punter.

Key Free Agents

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton emerged as one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL in 2011 and 2012, grading out 16^th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2011 and 7^th in 2012, earning himself the franchise tag for the 2013 season. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL early in the 2013 season so now his future is in limbo. He’s talented and young so someone may still want to commit to him on a multi-year deal, but he may have to settle for a one year prove it deal, even if it is a lucrative one in the range of 5-6 million. That would probably be his best option considering he could get a very lucrative deal next off-season if healthy.

DE Corey Wootton

An inside/outside defensive lineman who plays defensive end in base packages and moves inside to defensive tackle in sub packages. The 6-6 270 pounder has played in that prominent role for 2 seasons and has graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in both seasons, but just barely. He’s a decent starter and versatile. He’s sadly one of the Bears’ best defensive players, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to bring him back on a multi-year deal that pays him like a starter somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 million per year.

QB Josh McCown

Going into this season, Josh McCown was an aging journeyman backup quarterback. He was in his age 34 season and hadn’t posted a QB rating of 70 or higher since 2006. Out of nowhere, he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception. There was even some talk that the Bears should continue starting him even after Jay Cutler was healthy and/or that the Bears should let Jay Cutler leave as a free agent, in favor of keeping McCown as the starter. The Bears instead kept Cutler, which was the right move. McCown probably isn’t the quarterback his numbers showed him to be last season and he’s also going into his age 35 season, but there’s no denying he’s great in Trestman’s system. They would be wise to bring him back as a backup for the increasingly injury prone Jay Cutler.

C Roberto Garza

Garza has had some rough seasons in the past, grading out below average at both guard and center in every season from 2010-2012, including a 2011 season in which he ranked 2^nd worst among centers on Pro Football Focus. However, he played pretty well in 2013 in a new system with a new offensive line coach. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 35 season so he won’t command a long-term deal. He’ll probably sign a one-year deal somewhere, probably back in Chicago.

CB Zachary Bowman

A 2008 5^th round pick, Bowman is already going into his age 30 season and his 7^th season in the league. He’s played sparingly in every season but two, 2009 and 2013. In both of those seasons, he didn’t play that well, although he wasn’t awful this last season. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals as a depth cornerback this off-season.

S Major Wright

A 2010 3^rd round pick, Major Wright has been a starter for 3 seasons. He was alright in 2011 and 2012, but he struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety in 2013. He’ll probably have to settle for a one-year prove it deal this off-season. Anyone who gives him a long-term deal that pays him like a starter is making the wrong move and could be falling into a trap.

WR Devin Hester

He’s not a receiver anymore, which is a good thing, but, as good of a kick returner as he’s been in his career, he’s going into his age 32 season and the lifespan of kick returners isn’t that long, even really good ones. He has 18 special teams touchdowns all-time, a record, but just one in the last 2 seasons. He could be overpaid by someone off of name value.

OLB James Anderson

James Anderson had a great 2010 season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2010. However, he struggled in both 2011 and 2012 and was cut by the Panthers. He was snatched up by the Bears and given a three-down role, leading the team in snaps played by linebackers. However, he struggled mightily, overmatched in his role, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. He shouldn’t be given a three-down role going forward.

CB Kelvin Hayden

A well-travelled, veteran slot cornerback, Hayden missed the entire 2013 season with a torn hamstring. Now going into his age 31 season, Hayden might have to wait a while for the phone to ring.

DT Landon Cohen

Cohen didn’t play a single snap in 2012 and played a combined 104 snaps from 2010-2012, but he was thrust into a bigger role in 2013 when Henry Melton went down with injury, playing 386 snaps. He struggled mightily, a huge part of the reason why the Bears sucked against the run this season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible despite the limited playing time. He should have to wait a very long time for the phone to ring.

DT Jay Ratliff

An aging, injury prone player, Ratliff was once a great player, but he played just 269 snaps in 2012 and was on the street in 2013 after the Cowboys cut him, rather than activating him from the physically unable to perform list. The Bears were so desperate for defensive tackle help that they signed him off the streets, but he predictably struggled on 210 snaps. Going into his age 33 season, he’s going to have to wait a while for the phone to ring, if it ever does.

DT Nate Collins

A talented reserve in 2012, the 2010 undrafted free agent had a chance to shine in a larger role this season with Henry Melton’s injury, but Collins suffered one of his own, tearing his ACL in October. He’ll have a hard time finding work this off-season, but he’s a worthwhile reserve when healthy.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Julius Peppers

Julius Peppers is as close to being a sure cap casualty as anyone in the NFL. He’ll count for an absurd 18.18 million on the Bears’ cap next season and the Bears would save 9.82 million on the cap by cutting him. Given that he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus and is a shell of his former self going into his age 34 season, that’s a no brainer.

RB Michael Bush

The Bears can save 1.85 million on the cap by cutting Michael Bush going into his age 30 season, which seems like a reasonable move considering he’s an aging below average backup running back. He averaged 3.13 yards per carry last season and has averaged just 3.66 yards per carry over the past 3 seasons.

WR Earl Bennett

The Bears can save 2.45 million on the cap by cutting Earl Bennett this off-season. Considering he’s caught just 85 passes for 999 yards and 7 touchdowns in the past 3 years combined, he’s definitely expendable. They can find a cheaper, better slot receiver fairly easily.

P Adam Podlesh

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St. Louis Rams 2014 Off-Season Report

February 8, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Rams, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Rams were 3-4 in 7 games with Sam Bradford this season and 4-5 in 9 games after he tore his ACL, with Kellen Clemens under center. At first glance, it may appear that Sam Bradford and Kellen Clemens were comparable quarterbacks. That’s not the case though. Bradford actually had a very solid season before the injury, completing 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He displayed enough promise that it would made sense for the Rams to keep him at his large cap number, rather than starting over at the position with the 2^nd overall pick. Kellen Clemens, meanwhile, completed 58.7% of his passes for an average of 6.91 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

So why were they able to have a similar record with Clemens? Well, their defense improved significantly over the 2^nd half of the season and Zac Stacy broke out as their lead back. Stacy rushed for 973 yards and 7 touchdowns on 250 carries, only a 3.9 yard per carry average, but he ran hard and consistently churned out positive yardage and helped them move the chains. They have two first round picks, so if they can continue to run well and play solid defense in 2014 and Sam Bradford continues to develop and stays healthy, this team could compete for a playoff spot next season.

That being said, the Rams do have some issues. They don’t have a lot of cap space after several consecutive off-seasons in which they signed several free agents to multi-year deals, including guys like Cortland Finnegan, Kendall Langford, Jake Long, Scott Wells, Jake Long, and Harvey Dahl. They’ve also re-signed their own guys like James Laurinaitis and Chris Long and of course Sam Bradford has a large cap number. They’ll be able to get some cap space pretty easily by cutting some underachieving veterans, but they’ll need to replace them and they still would only have enough cap space to cheap sign free agents, sign their draft picks, and retain a few of their free agents. On top of that, they play in the deepest division in football. They could be a solid football team going into 2014 and still be the worst team in their division.

Positional Needs

Guard

The Rams desperately need to re-build their offensive line. Of their starting 5 on the offensive line last year, two are free agents (Chris Williams, Rodger Saffold), two will likely be cap casualties (Harvey Dahl, Scott Wells), and the other (Jake Long) tore his ACL in December and his status will be in doubt for the start of next season. Guard is their biggest need as they’ll basically have nothing at the position once they undoubtedly release Harvey Dahl.

Center

Like Dahl, Scott Wells will undoubtedly be a cap casualty this off-season. They don’t have a replacement on the roster and would need to find one if that happens.

Safety

The Rams lost both of their starting safeties from 2012 this off-season and didn’t really replace either, only reaching for TJ McDonald in the 3rd round. McDonald was hurt and the duo of Darian Stewart and Rodney McLeod was very underwhelming. They’ll probably address this position in the first round of the draft.

Offensive Tackle

This is another position of need on the offensive line and where they could go with the first of two first round picks. Best case scenario, Long comes back healthy week 1, they re-sign Rodger Saffold to play right guard, where he was excellent to end the season, and Jake Matthews slots in at right tackle. Drafting an offensive tackle also gives them flexibility in case Long misses time.

Cornerback

The Rams gave Cortland Finnegan a 5-year, 50 million dollar deal before the 2012 season, but this was not what they imagined. After a down year in 2012, Finnegan was downright awful thus far this season, grading out as the 2^nd worst cornerback in the NFL on Pro Football Focus, allowing 26 of 34 for 353 yards and 4 touchdowns, and an interception, while committing 6 penalties this season. He also missed 9 games and played just 367 snaps thanks to injury. He’ll probably be cut this off-season. That would leave them with 2012 2nd and 3rd round picks Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson at the position. Both are decent, but they need a 3^rd cornerback.

Wide Receiver

The Rams have brought in a bevy of wide receivers over the past few drafts, but the results have been a mixed bag at best. Tavon Austin caught just 40 passes as a rookie, which is nothing to be worried about with a rookie wide receiver, but still. Chris Givens had a strong rookie year, but struggled as the #1 guy in 2013. Austin Pettis is just a depth receiver. Brian Quick has yet to develop as a 2012 2^nd round pick. Do they add someone else in the mix this off-season?

Quarterback

Is Sam Bradford the quarterback of the future? Can he win you a Super Bowl? The Rams will have those questions weighing heavily on their mind over the next couple of off-seasons as Bradford has missed 15 games in the past 3 seasons and has yet to establish himself as an above average quarterback in the NFL. He’s also owed 27 million in cash over the next 2 seasons. They’re probably not going to move on from him this off-season, as they shouldn’t, but they may want to bring in a backup with some upside for the future in case Bradford continues to be a mystery.

Key Free Agents

OT Rodger Saffold

Rodger Saffold is a solid offensive lineman, but he has missed 17 games in the past 3 seasons, maxing out at 621 snaps over those 3 seasons. He’s a decent offensive tackle, but his best position is probably right guard, where he was borderline dominant to finish last season. The Rams should view him as a talented, but injury prone right guard and pay him accordingly. The guard position isn’t as lucrative as offensive tackle though, so someone will probably overpay for him. Hopefully for the Rams’ sake, it’s not them.

QB Kellen Clemens

Kellen Clemens proved himself to be a solid backup quarterback this season, game managing the Rams to a few nice wins, while completing 58.7% of his passes for an average of 6.91 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. His career numbers haven’t been good, as he’s completed 54.5% of his passes for an average of 6.36 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions in his career, but he’ll continue getting work as a backup this off-season.

G Chris Williams

A massive bust in Chicago as the 14^th overall pick of the 2008 NFL Draft, Williams resurfaced this season as a starter in St. Louis, starting 16 games at left guard. However, he struggled once again, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 74^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. The Rams need to take this opportunity to upgrade the position. Williams should not be pursued as a starter by any team this off-season and should struggle to find more than a one year deal. He’s best as a reserve. He has versatility in that he’s spent significant time at 3 different positions (left tackle, left guard, and right tackle), but he’s struggled everywhere and the only reason he’s played so many different positions is that he’s never been able to establish himself at any position.

S Darian Stewart

Darian Stewart was a starter for the Rams during their awful 2011 season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked safety that season and got demoted for 2012, playing just 82 snaps. In 2013, he got another chance to be a starter and, while he didn’t struggle as much, he still proved himself not to be a starting caliber player and got benched after 6 starts. He should be looking at reserve work on a short-term deal this off-season. The Rams could do better.

OLB JoLonn Dunbar

JoLonn Dunbar was a 3 down linebacker for the Rams in 2012, but struggled in coverage and proved he was more suited for two-down work and being a run stopping specialist. The Rams drafted Alec Ogletree in the first round in 2013 to move Dunbar into that two-down role. He eventually got suspended for performance enhancing drugs and cut by the Rams, before eventually being brought back. After that, he ended up struggling on 425 snaps in a part-time role. The market for mediocre two-down outside linebackers with a PED history is not going to be very big.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Cortland Finnegan

The Rams gave Cortland Finnegan a 5-year, 50 million dollar deal before the 2012 season, but this was not what they imagined. After a down year in 2012, Finnegan was downright awful thus far this season, grading out as the 2^nd worst cornerback in the NFL on Pro Football Focus, allowing 26 of 34 for 353 yards and 4 touchdowns, and an interception, while committing 6 penalties this season. He also missed 9 games and played just 367 snaps thanks to injury. They can save 4 million on the cap by cutting him this off-season.

C Scott Wells

Scott Wells has missed 13 games out of a possible 32 games over the past 2 seasons, since signing a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal before the 2012 season. He’s also struggled whenever he’s been on the field. The Rams can save 4.5 million on the cap by cutting him as he heads into his age 33 season this off-season. He’s probably gone.

G Harvey Dahl

Harvey Dahl could be cut going into the 4^th season of his 5-year deal. He’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, including 7 last season and he isn’t as good as he once was at the start of the deal. He’s also going into his age 33 season in 2014. The Rams would save 4 million on the cap by cutting him this off-season.

QB Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford’s cap number for 2014 is 17.61 million and the Rams can save 10.42 million on the cap by cutting him. Considering he’s missed 15 games over the past 3 seasons combined and has yet to develop into the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be and he is being paid to be, there’s some talk over whether or not the Rams should cut him and draft a cheaper quarterback 2^nd overall. I think that would be a mistake. Bradford actually had a very solid season before tearing his ACL, completing 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He displayed enough promise that it would made sense for the Rams to keep him, rather than starting over at the position. There’s no guarantee they’d be upgrading the quarterback position with a rookie and you never want to downgrade the quarterback position. Fortunately, the Rams appear highly unlikely to move on from Bradford this off-season.

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New York Giants 2014 Off-Season Report

February 7, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Giants, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

It’s hard to believe that the Giants finished 7-9, considering their 0-6 start, but they were surprisingly good down the stretch, winning 7 of their last 10 games. What was the difference? Well, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they had a turnover margin of +1 in their final 10 games. That shouldn’t be surprising considering turnover margin tends to be an inconsistent thing. Also helpful was that the Giants got strong play from some unlikely sources on defense, including cornerback Trumaine McBride and once declining defensive end Justin Tuck.

Eli Manning still finished the season with very poor stats, completing 57.5% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions, but he should be better in 2014. Another player who should be better in 2014 is Jason Pierre-Paul, who was a shell of himself in limited action this season thanks to injuries. Given that, the Giants have a good chance to be a playoff contender again in 2014, but there are some issues.

One is that they have a lot of key free agents and very little cap space with which to bring them back. They can create more cap space fairly easily, but they’re still going to have a tough back bringing all of their guys back. On top of that, there’s concern about Eli Manning’s age as he goes into his age 33 season. Sure, he could improve over a career worst season, but there’s a chance, at his age, that his best days are behind him.

On top of that, the Giants’ 7-9 record from 2013 is a little misleading. They finished the season 26^th in rate of moving the chains differential, at -4.85%, and their point differential was -89. They played 8 games against eventual playoff teams and the only two they won were against Matt Barkley and the Eagles and Scott Tolzien and the Packers, two 3^rd string quarterbacks. Their other 6 games were losses and by a combined score of 206-65. Depending on what the makeup of this team ends up being, they could compete in 2014, but they have work to do.

Positional Needs

Guard

The Giants obviously have offensive line problems. Tackle isn’t that big of an issue because William Beatty is a talented, well paid left tackle when healthy and because Justin Pugh really came on as a 1^st round rookie at right tackle late last season. Guard, however, is a big issue. Kevin Boothe struggled at left guard and the journeyman will be a free agent heading into his age 31 season this off-season. Chris Snee, meanwhile, hasn’t been the same over the past few years thanks to injury and will probably be a cap casualty. His cap number will be 11.3 million for next season and the Giants can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting him, going into his age 32 season. He could also retire. Either way, they could easily need two new starters at guard this off-season. One option is moving Justin Pugh to guard, but I think he’s more valuable at right tackle and one of the only real good thing they had on this line last season, so moving him doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Cornerback

Three of the Giants’ top four cornerbacks will be free agents this off-season and all 3 have some issues. Corey Webster is coming off a significant injury in 2013 and a terrible season in 2012 and he’s going into his age 32 season. Terrell Thomas was alright on 588 snaps last season, but he didn’t play at all in 2011 and 2012 because he tore his ACL twice. Trumaine McBride, meanwhile, played well last season on 621 snaps, but he also didn’t play at all from 2011-2012. The journeyman can’t be trusted. Chances are, the Giants will need a new starter opposite Prince Amukamara this off-season.

Defensive End

Jason Pierre-Paul played only 583 snaps in 2013 and struggled by his own standards this season. That being said, he’ll probably be healthy again for 2014 and back to his normal high level of play, but they need help opposite him. They drafted Damontre Moore in the 3^rd round in 2013, but they love having depth at the position and Justin Tuck is a free agent going into his age 31 season, while Mathias Kiwanuka will probably be a cap casualty, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 defensive end this season.

Tight End

The Giants’ top two tight ends are both free agents this off-season, Brandon Myers, a pass catching tight end who disappointed catching 47 passes for 522 yards and a 4 touchdowns, and Bear Pascoe, a blocking type. They’ll probably need to replenish the position.

Middle Linebacker

The Giants were so desperate for linebacker help that they traded for Jon Beason mid-season. That didn’t really pan out, as he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That was to be expected, considering he missed 28 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with injury and was demoted upon his return to Carolina earlier this season. He’s a free agent so they should take this opportunity to upgrade the position.

Defensive Tackle

Mike Patterson and Linval Joseph are both free agents this off-season, while Cullen Jenkins could be a cap casualty or moved to defensive end. That would only leave them with inexperienced 2^nd round pick Johnathan Hankins at the position. They could definitely need some depth at the position depending on who returns and who they decide to keep.

Running Back

David Wilson has carried the ball 115 times in 2 seasons since being drafted in the 1^st round in 2012. He was a backup in 2012, carrying it 71 times and then he carried it only 44 times in what should have been a breakout year in 2013. He was plagued by fumble problems when on the field, losing 3 fumbles on those 115 careers, and suffered a potentially career threatening neck injury that has his future in doubt. Andre Brown took over as the lead back upon his return from his own injuries and stabilized the position, doing a good job picking up the yards that were blocked. However, he has no explosiveness, with a season high run of 23 yards over 139 carries and he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season. He also has an injury history and is a free agent this off-season. He’ll probably be brought back, but the Giants would be wise to bring in another running back through the draft.

Kicker

In his first career as the Giants’ kicker, Josh Brown made 23 of 26 field goals. He’s also a career 81.9% kicker. That being said, he’s a free agent this off-season so the Giants will need to replace him if they can’t retain him.

Key Free Agents

DT Linval Joseph

A 2010 2^nd round pick out of East Carolina, Linval Joseph has developed into a very solid defensive tackle, grading out 21^st among defensive tackles in both 2012 and 2013. He’s a better run player than pass rusher, but he’s a decent pass rusher and he’d be an asset for any defensive line. I don’t think he’s quite at franchise tag level, so the Giants will probably let him test the market unless he agrees to a team friendly deal. He’ll be one of the most sought after defensive linemen on the market.

WR Hakeem Nicks

Hakeem Nicks’ tenure in New York had some ups and downs. He had a strong rookie year, after being taken in the first round in 2009, catching 47 passes for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns and then developing into a 1000+ yard receiver in 2010 and 2011, when he caught a combined 155 passes for 2244 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also was an integral part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team in 2011. However, in 2012 and 2013, he struggled with injuries and didn’t break the 1000 yard mark in either season. He caught a combined 109 passes for 1588 yards and 3 touchdowns, often appeared not to be on the same page with Eli Manning, and caught a low percent of his targets (56.2%). Also, Eli Manning had a 3 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio when thrown to him over the past two seasons. After paying Victor Cruz last off-season and with Rueben Randle waiting in the wings, the Giants and Nicks are probably parting ways this off-season. Still, he had 311 catches for 4622 yards and 27 touchdowns in 5 seasons. Nicks could be a nice buy low option on the open market.

S Stevie Brown

After bouncing around the league to start his career, Brown, a former 7^th round pick, finally broke out in 2012 with the Giants, picking off 8 passes and ranking 26^th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. However, he tore his ACL before the 2013 season and didn’t play a snap. Now heading into free agency, he could be a nice buy low signing for a team and will probably re-sign with the Giants on a prove it deal, which he could turn into a big multi-year deal next off-season.

DE Justin Tuck

Justin Tuck was great from 2008-2010 and had a fantastic playoff run in 2011, but he really was not the same player in either the 2011 or 2012 regular season. He graded out 3^rd, 6^th, and 9^th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2008, 2009, and 2010 respectively, but in 2011 and 2012, he was around average in both seasons. He had a strong contract year in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked 4-3 defensive end, but he’s someone you should be wary about giving a big contract as he goes into his age 31 season.

RB Andre Brown

Andre Brown was a 4^th round pick of the Giants in 2009, but battled injury problems and bounced all around the league. He eventually caught on as the #2 back in New York in 2012 behind Ahmad Bradshaw, rushing for 385 yards and 8 touchdowns on 73 carries, a 5.3 yard per carry average. With Bradshaw gone in 2013, Brown had a chance to be the lead back with David Wilson, but broke his ankle in the pre-season. Fortunately for him, Wilson suffered a serious injury, allowing Brown to be the starter upon his own return from injury and he really stabilized the position, picking up yardage that was blocked. Unfortunately, that’s about all he did as the plodder averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and had a long of 23 yards. He’s a valuable running back, but I don’t think he’s a starting type. He’ll probably be back with the Giants on a short-term deal as they seek insurance for Wilson.

TE Brandon Myers

Purely a possession receiver who isn’t a strong blocker or explosive after the catch, Myers actually had a strong season in 2012 with the Raiders, catching 79 of his 101 targets, though for only 806 yards with a long of 29. Still, his 2013 was a disappointment by those standards, as he never really fit into the Giants’ system, catching just 47 passes for 522 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals again this off-season and won’t be guaranteed a starting job.

CB Trumaine McBride

Trumaine McBride didn’t play a snap in 2011 or 2012 and didn’t play at all this season until week 4, but he was a starter by week 5 and really helped stabilize the Giants’ secondary. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 24^th ranked cornerback and 13^th in coverage grade, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 43.8% of his passes in the direction of his coverage. It’ll be important not to buy high with McBride, but he’s definitely worth bringing back on a short-term deal.

S Ryan Mundy

A career reserve, Ryan Mundy played a career high 667 snaps for the Giants this season and wasn’t bad. The 2008 6^th round pick is already going into his age 29 season, but has shown that he’s deserving of a chance at a starting job. At the very least, he’s a solid 3^rd safety who could provide adequate depth when injuries strike.

G Kevin Boothe

Kevin Boothe has been a starter for the past 3 years for the Giants. In spite of strong play in 2012, he struggled mightily in both 2011 and 2013 and should be upgraded this off-season, as he heads into his age 31 season. Boothe will probably be looking at one year deals with teams looking at him as interior offensive line depth. He has experience in both guard and center and was primarily a reserve up until 2011.

CB Terrell Thomas

Terrell Thomas didn’t play a snap in 2011 or 2012 thanks to back-to-back torn ACLs and some thought his career was over. He defied the odds this season, playing pretty well on 588 snaps. Only going into his age 29 season, the 2008 2^nd round pick still has some football left in him, provided he can stay healthy. He’s obviously an injury risk, but he’ll get attention on the open market.

MLB Jon Beason

The Giants were so desperate for linebacker help that they traded for Jon Beason mid-season. That didn’t really pan out, as he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That was to be expected, considering he missed 28 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with injury and was demoted upon his return to Carolina earlier this season. He’ll be looking at one year deals going forward most likely.

DT Mike Patterson

A talented starting defensive tackle in Philadelphia, Patterson was limited to 5 games and 136 snaps in 2012 after brain surgery. He defied the odds and made a comeback in 2013, playing all 16 games and playing pretty well on 413 snaps. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he could still draw interest as a rotational defensive end this off-season.

CB Corey Webster

A solid starter for a while in New York, Webster was torched with regularity in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked cornerback. After restructuring his contract, Webster barely played in 2013, playing 170 snaps, thanks to a serious injury he sustained early in the season. Now going into his age 32 season, he’s going to have a hard time finding work this off-season.

G David Diehl

Going into his age 34 season, David Diehl has announced his retirement and it’s coming at a good time. There was a time where he was a good offensive lineman and he has more than 25 starts experience at every offensive line position except center. However, the aging Diehl has struggled mightily over the past few seasons, especially as he’s been playing through some injuries. Diehl made 11 starts at guard this season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th worst guard. In 2012, he struggled on 487 snaps at right tackle after losing his starting job. In 2011, he played left tackle and left guard and struggled at both spots. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked guard on 10 starts and 8^th worst offensive tackle on 6 starts. His composite grade was the worst of any offensive lineman. In 2010, he was the 10^th worst ranked tackle in 10 starts and also struggled in 2 starts at left guard. He hasn’t played well since 2009 and probably didn’t have any football left in him.

K Josh Brown

In his first career as the Giants’ kicker, Josh Brown made 23 of 26 field goals. He’s also a career 81.9% kicker. He’ll be kicking somewhere next season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

G Chris Snee

Chris Snee hasn’t been the same over the past few years thanks to injury and will probably be a cap casualty. His cap number will be 11.3 million for next season and the Giants can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting him, going into his age 32 season. He also might just retire.

DE Mathias Kiwanuka

Mathias Kiwanuka struggled mightily this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 defensive end, and he’s going into his age 31 season. The Giants can save 9.15 million in cash over the next 2 seasons by cutting him and would save 1.8 million on next year’s cap.

S Antrel Rolle

Antrel Rolle graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked safety this season, but he could still be cut, a move that would save 7.25 million on the cap. He’s struggled in the past, grading out negative from 2009-2012, including 2^nd worst in 2011 and 10^th worst in 2010. He’s also going into his age 32 season and the Giants have two good in house safeties in Will Hill and Stevie Brown, provided the latter is re-signed as a free agent.

C David Baas

David Baas is a mediocre center at this stage of his career and he’s going into his age 32 season, after missing 13 games last season. Cutting him would save 1.775 million on the cap and 4.75 million in pure cash for the Giants next season.

DT Cullen Jenkins

Cullen Jenkins played solid football last season, but he’s going into his age 33 season in 2014 and the Giants can save 1.933 million on next year’s cap by cutting him. His 2.6 million dollar salary for 2014 doesn’t seem unreasonable, but non-elite players over the age of 32, 33 always need to be prepared to be cut if they are on multi-year deals.

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Tennessee Titans 2014 Off-Season Report

February 1, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Titans, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

In 2011, the Titans allowed just 19.8 points per game, 8^th best in the NFL. In 2012, they were dead last, allowing 29.4 points per game, with essentially the same personnel. In 2013, they were right in between, ranking 16^th, allowing 23.8 points per game. What happened? Well they got huge years from Jurrell Casey and Alterraun Verner, while Michael Griffin bounced back from a horrific 2012 season. However, in spite of an improved defense, the Titans still finished just 7-9 and fired head coach Mike Munchak.

Ken Whisenhunt has taken over for him and brought in Ray Horton to be his defensive coordinator, as was the case when Whisenhunt was the Cardinals’ head coach in 2012. Horton will be transitioning the Titans to a 3-4 defense, which might be a mistake. While some players like Akeem Ayers will benefit and Horton is a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jurrell Casey is arguably their best defensive player and he might not be a good fit at 5-technique defensive end at only 6 foot 1. At the same time, the Titans will have to re-sign stud cornerback Alterraun Verner if they want to continue being a solid defense.

That being said, the bigger issue is the offensive side of the ball. Jake Locker has yet to establish himself as a starting caliber quarterback going into his 4^th season, which also happens to be his contract year. Ken Whisenhunt is an improvement as an offensive head coach over Mike Munchak and overmatched offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains so we’ll see if he can bring it out of Locker. At the moment, it looks like the Titans might be stuck in the mud as a middling team for at least another year.

Positional Needs

Middle Linebacker

The Titans are moving to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton. Zach Brown will be moving from outside linebacker to one of the middle linebacker spots, but they still need someone else at the other spot. Currently, the man slated to fill that role is Moise Fokou, who started at middle linebacker for the Titans in 2013. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked middle linebacker this season. Someone like Alabama’s CJ Mosley will be an option for them with the 11^th overall pick in this upcoming draft.

Safety

Michael Griffin, Bernard Pollard, and George Wilson might all not be back next season. Griffin played alright this season, but he’s been very inconsistent in his career and he has a cap number of 8 million in 2014. The Titans can save 2.6 million on the cap and 6.2 million in cash by letting him go. Bernard Pollard, meanwhile, is a free agent. Finally, Wilson is going into his age 33 season and could be cut, a move that would save 2.5 million in cap space and cash. Chances are, they’ll need to add at least one new starter at safety this off-season.

Tight End

The Titans brought in Delanie Walker as a free agent, but he didn’t pan out as the pass catcher they were expecting him to be. He caught 60 passes, but they went for just 571 yards on 505 routes run. He’s really just a blocking tight end whose role is being overstretched. Craig Stevens and Taylor Thompson, meanwhile, are also just blocking types. They need a strong pass catcher over the middle from the tight end position.

Running Back

Chris Johnson is expected to be a cap casualty this off-season, as they’d save 6 million on the cap and 8 million in cash by cutting him, going into his age 29 season after a year in which he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. They’d need a new lead back in that situation. Shonn Greene is his backup and he has starting experience and is being paid like a starter, but he’s proved to be overstretched as a lead back in the past, averaging 3.9 yards per carry in 2012, the last time he was a starter. He’ll have a bigger role in 2014 than the 77 carries he had in 2013, but they need someone to pair him with at the very least.

Quarterback

Is Jake Locker the answer? After 3 years, we still don’t have an answer for that question about the former 8^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Part of that is because he’s only played 23 games and thrown 563 pass attempts in 3 seasons, as a result of Matt Hasselbeck’s presence and a variety of injuries. He’s definitely flashed at times, but he has about a season’s worth of pass attempts under his belt now and he’s thrown for just 3904 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while rushing for another 502 yards and 4 touchdowns and completing 57.2% of his passes. He’s heading into his contract year in 2014 and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone, so they might want to start to go in a different direction at quarterback or add some extra competition, much like the Buccaneers did with Mike Glennon last year.

Offensive Tackle

The Titans could cut David Stewart this off-season, to save 6.4 million in cash and cap space this off-season, after he had a middling season in 2013, going into his age 32 season. Even if they don’t, he probably won’t be around much longer so they could start looking to develop a successor even if they don’t cut him and need a replacement.

Defensive End

Jurrell Casey will be a starter at one 5-technique spot, but things are pretty fluid at the opposite spot. Ropati Pitoitua and Antonio Johnson are free agents, which leaves talented reserves Karl Klug and Mike Martin at the position. If they don’t bring back Pitoitua and Johnson, they’ll probably need to add some depth this off-season.

Center

I don’t know why the Titans cut Fernando Velasco, a perfectly functioning starting center, in order to give the starting job to veteran journeyman Robert Turner. Turner struggled mightily and was benched for 4^th round rookie Brian Schwenke, who wasn’t any better. Despite splitting playing time, they finished as Pro Football Focus’ 32^nd and 29^th ranked centers respectively out of 35 eligible. Schwenke is young so he could get another chance at the starting job, but it might be wise to bring in some actual competition.

Key Free Agents

CB Alterraun Verner

Alterraun Verner had his “breakout” year this year because he had 5 interceptions and that’s all a lot of people care about with defensive backs, but he’s actually been very good since his rookie season in 2010, despite a combined 6 interceptions from 2010-2012. He’s been a top-24 cornerback on Pro Football Focus’ in all 4 seasons, making all 64 starts since being drafted in the 4^th round out of UCLA in 2010. Verner rode those 5 interceptions, along with a 49.4% completion percentage allowed, to a 12^th ranked grade on Pro Football Focus and he’ll see a big paycheck this off-season, probably upwards of 40 million over 5 years. He could be a candidate for the franchise tag.

S Bernard Pollard

It’s weird to say considering he’s already been on 4 teams and could be going on a 5^th, but Bernard Pollard is only going into his age 30 season in 2014. He was a solid starter once again this season, this time for the Titans and could serve as a cheap short-term starter at the safety position for some team again this off-season, much like he did last off-season for the Titans, with whom he made just 2 million this season.

DE Ropati Pitoitua

A talented reserve 5-technique defensive end in Kansas City, the Titans attempted to turn Ropati Pitoitua into their version of the Seahawks’ Red Bryant this season. It didn’t go as well as they would have liked. He didn’t get any pressure on the quarterback, as you would expect from a 6-8 290 pounder trying to play on the edge, and he didn’t do enough against the run to make up for it. He wasn’t terrible, but his best fit is probably in a traditional 5-technique defensive end position. Fortunately, the Titans are switching to a 3-4 so they could bring him back as a cheap starter opposite Jurrell Casey.

DT Antonio Johnson

Antonio Johnson is a reserve and little else. He graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus in both 2011 and 2012, grading out 79^th out of 88 eligible defensive tackles in 2011 and 80^th out of 85 eligible defensive tackles in 2012. He was a better in 2013, but only on 386 snaps and he’s going into his age 30 season so he’ll probably have to wait a while to get a new job.

WR Kenny Britt

Kenny Britt had a ton of promise. Before tearing his ACL early in the 2011 season, the 2009 1st round pick had caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite inconsistent, at best, quarterback play. He struggled in 2012 with injury and off the field problems, catching just 45 passes for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, but had a chance to make up for it in his contract year in 2013 and get a good chunk of cash in free agency. Instead, his contract year was rock bottom. Despite playing just 305 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked wide receiver. He caught just 11 of 33 targets, taking them for just 96 yards and getting 6 yards total after the catch. He also committed 6 penalties and was a healthy scratch in 4 games. Between his struggles on the field and his off the field baggage, Britt is going to have to wait a long time for the phone to ring this off-season, if it rings at all, in spite of his raw natural ability and athleticism.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Chris Johnson

The Titans overpaid Chris Johnson based off of his insane 2009 season, in which he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and rushed for over 2000 yards. Since that season, he’s rushed for 4731 yards and 27 touchdowns on 1133 carries, an average of 4.18 yards per carry. Last season, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and now he’s going into his age 29 season. The Titans can easily get out of the final 3 years of his deal, a total of 23 million, and save 6 million on this year’s cap by cutting him. They can easily replace him, so he’s as good as gone.

DE Kamerion Wimbley

Kamerion Wimbley lost his starting job to Ropati Pitoitua this season and only played 360 snaps. Owed 6 million in his age 31 season in 2014, Wimbley could easily be cut, which would save the Titans 2.4 million on the cap. The only way he stays is if new defensive coordinator Ray Horton recognizes how much better he fits in a 3-4 than a 4-3, but it’s looking doubtful considering his age and their lack of need at the rush linebacker position.

WR Nate Washington

Nate Washington has 178 catches for 2688 yards and 14 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season and could be cut, which would save 4.8 million in cash and cap space. The Titans have used a 1^st and 2^nd round pick on Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter in the last two drafts so Washington is becoming superfluous as he heads into the tail end of his career.

OT David Stewart

The Titans could cut David Stewart this off-season, to save 6.4 million in cash and cap space this off-season, after he had a middling season, going into his age 32 season. He’ll be a free agent after next season anyway.

S Michael Griffin

Michael Griffin had a solid season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked safety. However, he’s been very inconsistent in his career. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked safety in 2012 and 2^nd worst ranked safety in 2009, but he was also 10^th highest in 2011. He could be cut, which would save the Titans 6.2 million in cash and 2.6 million on the cap.

S George Wilson

Cutting George Wilson would save 2.5 million on the cap and in cash for 2014. He’s a talented player who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked safety in 2012, but he played just 420 snaps in 2013. He played well in 2013 on those limited snaps, but he’s going into his age 33 season so the Titans might not see him as a startable player for 2014. If they don’t, he’s not worth what he’s owed.

TE Craig Stevens

Craig Stevens is purely a blocking tight end who caught just 2 passes for 5 yards on 95 snaps this season. Considering fellow tight ends Delanie Walker and Taylor Thompson are also blocking types, Stevens is pretty superfluous. Owed 3.4 million in cash, the Titans would save 2.4 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season.

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Detroit Lions 2014 Off-Season Report

January 30, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Lions, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Lions went 4-12 in 2012, but everything suggested they would be much better in 2013. They were killed by turnovers (-16), inability to recover fumbles (32.6%), return touchdowns (-10 touchdowns), and inability to win close games (3-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less). Through 9 games, things were great. They started 6-3, going +1 in turnovers, recovering 39.1% of fumbles, going +1 in return touchdowns, and going 3-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. However, they won just 1 of their final 7 games, despite a fairly easy schedule (a combined 50-60-2 record by those 7 opponents). They went -13 in turnovers in those 7 games and 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less, some of the same things that plagued them before.

Those types of things tend to even out in the long run, but they haven’t really been doing that with the Lions. They have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL, finishing 6^th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.92% rate, as opposed to 68.50% for their opponents (both of which were top-10), a differential of 5.42%. On top of that, they aren’t going to lose much this off-season, in spite of the fact that they don’t have a ton of cap space. They absolutely made the right move firing Jim Schwartz. It might not fix the problem, but at this point they had no other choice.

They’ve replaced him with Jim Caldwell. He’ll probably be better than Schwartz, but I don’t know if that was the right hire. They’re banking on him being more of the man that was recommended by Peyton Manning, led the Colts to a 24-8 record and a Super Bowl appearance in 2 seasons with Manning, and orchestrated the Ravens’ offense during their Super Bowl run, rather than the Peyton Manning puppet that finished 2-14 in the one season with Manning, led one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season with the Ravens, and went 26-63 as head coach of Wake Forest. I’d bet on the Lions winning more than 7 games rather than less than 7 games in 2014, but I don’t know if they’re going to reach their potential.

Positional Needs

Wide Receiver

The Lions drafted Titus Young and Ryan Broyles in back-to-back 2^nd rounds because they wanted a talented trio of wide receivers with them and Calvin Johnson. However, Titus Young is out of the league because of off-the-field problems (to put it lightly), while Ryan Broyles has suffered significant leg injuries in each of the last 3 seasons dating back to his time at Oklahoma. His career is now in doubt. Now they have nothing after Calvin Johnson and they really struggle to move the ball when he’s out of the lineup. They need a good receiver opposite him. Nate Burleson is going into his age 33 season and could be a cap casualty, while the likes of Kris Durham and Kevin Ogletree aren’t getting it done.

Center

Dominic Raiola had a fantastic season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked center this season. However, he’s a free agent this off-season and could just retire, going into his age 36 season. They may need to replace him for next season and even if they don’t, they will have to at some point. They need a center of the future.

Tight End

Brandon Pettigrew is a free agent this off-season. He’s never lived up to his potential as a former first round pick and especially struggled in his contract year, catching just 41 passes for 416 yards and 2 touchdowns. He probably won’t be back next season so they’ll need another tight end to go with talented rookie Joseph Fauria.

Safety

Louis Delmas could easily be a cap casualty this off-season. If he is, they’ll need to replace him.

Cornerback

The Lions have spent a lot of picks on cornerbacks over the past few drafts, including Darius Slay in the 2^nd round in 2013, Bill Bentley in the 3^rd round in 2012, Chris Greenwood in the 5^th round in 2012, and Jonte Green in the 6^th round in 2012. However, they still don’t have another cornerback opposite Chris Houston. Veteran Rashean Mathis was the savior for them at the position this season, but he’s a free agent going into his age 34 season. They could spend another pick on this position in this draft.

Defensive End

Ezekiel Ansah had a strong rookie year, but they might need help opposite him. Willie Young, a talented starter, and Israel Idonije are free agents this off-season, while Jason Jones could be a cap casualty after a suffering a serious injury this season.

Kicker

David Akers is a free agent this off-season and could retire going into his age 40 season. If he’s not back, they’ll need to replace him.

Key Free Agents

DE Willie Young

A talented reserve since being drafted in the 7^th round in 2010, Willie Young broke out as a starter this season, playing 801 snaps and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked 4-3 defensive end. Just in time for his contract year. He should be the Lions’ number #1 priority in terms of free agents this off-season. He’ll get a deal around 4-5 years, $20-$25 million this off-season.

C Dominic Raiola

Dominic Raiola had a fantastic season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked center this season. However, he’s a free agent this off-season and could just retire, going into his age 36 season. If he continues playing, it’ll probably be on a one year deal with the Lions.

TE Brandon Pettigrew

QB Shaun Hill

Shaun Hill is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s not a starting caliber quarterback at all, going into his age 34 season, but he’ll get a good amount of money to be a backup somewhere. In his career, he’s completed 62.0% of his passes for an average of 6.69 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. If I had to bet, I think he’ll be back in Detroit.

DE Israel Idonije

Idonije remained unsigned late into last off-season because of his age (going into his age 33 season), but he provided the Bears with great play at two spots on the defensive line in 2012, lining up at defensive end in base packages and rushing the passer from the interior in sub packages. He also moved to defensive tackle for a few games late in the season. His composite grade would have been 8th among 4-3 defensive ends and 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012. That being said, he played just 347 snaps in 2013 and now is going into his age 34 season so job offers will be limited.

CB Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis randomly had a very strong season in 2013 in his age 33 season, after being let go by the Jaguars. Believe it or not, he actually finished as Pro Football Focus’ 27^th ranked cornerback in 799 snaps, allowing opponents to complete 48.7% of his passes against him. He won’t be a hot commodity going into his age 34 season, but he should get picked up at some point. He’s probably looking at one year deals though.

K David Akers

David Akers is an incredibly accomplished kicker, who has 1721 career points, 11^th most all-time. He’s hit 80.9% of his field goals for his career and bounced back from a rough 2012 by hitting 19 of 24 in 2013. However, he’s going into his age 40 season and may opt to hang them up. If he doesn’t, he might have to wait a little bit for a chance at a job.

Cap Casualty Candidates

G LeRoy Harris

LeRoy Harris was brought in on a two-year deal last off-season to compete for the right guard job, but ended up losing the job and didn’t play a single snap all season. The Lions can save 1.95 million in cap space and cash by cutting him this off-season and given Larry Warford’s breakout year as a rookie, Harris is entirely superfluous. He’s probably gone.

S Louis Delmas

After playing in just 19 of 32 possible games in 2011 and 2012, Louis Delmas didn’t miss a game in 2013, playing 1058 snaps, 2^nd most on the team. He was a pretty solid starter. However, his history of injury problems is still there and he probably isn’t worth his 6.5 million dollar cap number for 2014 on a cap strapped team. The Lions can save 6 million in cap space and cash by cutting him and there’s already talk that they’re going to do so.

RB Montell Owens

Montell Owens is a running back/fullback/special teamer, who played just 2 snaps on offense in 2013. The Lions are pressed for cap space and can save 1.205 million by cutting Owens. That’s too steep of a cap number for a special teamer coming off of a serious knee injury.

WR Nate Burleson

The Lions can save 5.5 million in cap space and cash by cutting Nate Burleson going into his contract year in 2014. Burleson is going into his age 33 season and has missed 17 games over the past 2 seasons. That seems like a no brainer for a cap strapped team. A paycut is another option here.

OT Corey Hilliard

Corey Hilliard started the first 7 games of the season at right tackle for the Lions and wasn’t bad, but he was benched for undrafted rookie LaAdrian Waddle, who impressed down the stretch. The Lions may cut him to save 1.6 million in cap space. It wouldn’t be hard to find a cheaper backup at right tackle.

DE Jason Jones

Jason Jones’ first year of a three year deal was disappointing, as he played just 87 snaps before suffering a serious knee injury. Willie Young, who took over at left end for him, was very solid and, provided he’s brought back as a free agent, the Lions may just go ahead and cut Jones. They’d save 6 million in cash over the next 2 seasons and about 2 million on next year’s cap by cutting him.

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Buffalo Bills 2014 Off-Season Report

January 27, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Bills, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Bills were the only team in the NFL to select a quarterback in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. While most teams, even the neediest at quarterback, shied away from spending a premium pick on anyone from the 2013 quarterback class, the Bills took EJ Manuel out of Florida State after a trade down. It was certainly a risk, but for a team searching for a franchise quarterback really since the Jim Kelly days, having last made the playoffs in 1999 and last won a playoff game in 1995, it was understandable. However, given the risk, the Bills season can be best evaluated on the basis of EJ Manuel’s development and, by those standards, 2013 was a failure.

Part of the problem was that Manuel missed too many valuable reps both in practice and in the game with injury. Manuel attempted just 306 of the Bills’ 522 pass attempts this season, as he missed 6 full games and parts of others with injury. He was also pretty ineffective when on the field, getting outplayed by backup Thad Lewis, who was on the practice squad to start the season. Lewis completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 52 yards and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Manuel completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked quarterback. As a result, the Bills were 28^th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 66.27% rate, in spite of a decent running game. It’s obviously way too early to make any determination on Manuel’s future, but Bills fans can’t feel happy with his progress thus far. If he continues struggling into next season, they may have to give Thad Lewis a longer look. At the very least, Lewis is a decent backup.

Lewis’ emergence as a decent backup wasn’t the only positive from the Bills’ 2013 season as they had one of the league’s best defenses this season. Not only were they 2^nd in the NFL in both sacks and interceptions, but they also rank 6^th in rate of moving the chains against, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.58% rate. They were actually better than their 6-10 record would have suggested, in spite of their weaknesses on offense, ranking 19^th in rate of moving the chains differential and posting a -49 point differential. Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, Jairus Byrd, Mario Williams were all deserving Pro-Bowlers, while Kiko Alonso, their 2^nd round pick, is in the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The bad news is the Bills lost the architect behind this defense as defensive coordinator Mike Pettine took the Cleveland Browns’ head coaching job. The Bills have talent independent of him and they’re going to be in good hands under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, but Pettine was really the one to get the most out of them. They could also lose stud safety Jairus Byrd in free agency. They’ll have to continue playing like a top-10 unit on defense if they have plans to make the playoffs in 2014. For right now, it looks like they’re headed towards another year of mediocrity unless the offense can take a huge step forward.

Positional Needs

Guard

Andy Levitre is one of the best guards in the NFL, but the Bills let him go last off-season as a free agent. Their efforts to replace him were a train wreck. Colin Brown got the first crack at the job, starting 5 games and, in spite of his limited playing time, he finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked guard. Doug Legursky then took over and he was better, but only by default. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked guard out of 81 eligible. If you combined them, they would have been the 2^nd worst guard in the league last year. They need to address this position this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

Offensive tackle is another problem on their offensive line. Right tackle Erik Pears could be upgraded, especially as he heads into his age 32 contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 55^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. They could draft someone like Auburn’s Greg Robinson with the 9^th overall pick and then move Pears to left guard for the short-term. They could also draft an offensive tackle and slot him at left guard for the time being until Pears’s contract runs out. Cutting Pears could also be an option.

Tight End

Scott Chandler is a free agent this off-season. He was their leader in receptions and receiving yardage last season, in addition to his work as a blocker, so he’d obviously need to be replaced if they were unable to bring him. No other tight end caught more than 5 passes this season for them. They could also add another tight end early in the draft to bring in another receiver to the mix. Chandler is more of an inline tight end and they don’t have a true pass catching tight end.

Safety

Jairus Byrd is a free agent. If they aren’t able to bring him back, they’ll need to replace him at safety. The Bills would frequently use 3 safeties in obvious passing situations with Jairus Byrd, Aaron Williams, and Da’Norris Searcy who is the biggest of the bunch and would often play linebacker. Everyone would have to move up a role if Byrd left unreplaced.

Wide Receiver

No Bills receiver had more than 600 yards receiving last year. Steve Johnson could be a cap casualty next off-season if he continues to disappoint, while youngsters Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and TJ Graham have yet to develop into #1 receivers. Robert Woods, a 2013 2^nd round pick, could be a solid #2 receiver long-term, but Goodwin, a 2013 3^rd round pick, hasn’t shown much on offense, while TJ Graham, a 2012 3^rd round pick, has been awful when on the field. They could add someone else to the mix this off-season.

Kicker

Dan Carpenter nailed 91.7% of his kicks this season and his career kicking percentage is 83.8%. However, he’s a free agent this off-season. They’ll need to replace him if he can’t be re-signed. Dustin Hopkins is an option to replace him because they drafted him last season, but he struggled so much in training camp and the pre-season that they brought in Dan Carpenter. Hopkins also missed all of the season with a groin injury suffered in September.

Key Free Agents

S Jairus Byrd

Jairus Byrd is not just one of the top safeties in the NFL, but one of the top defensive players at any position. He’s what everyone thinks Earl Thomas is (not that Thomas is bad by any stretch of the imagination). Byrd was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety in 2011 and 2nd ranked in 2012. He ranked 8th in 2013, which wasn’t as good, but he missed a few games with injury to start the year so that had something to do with it. Upon his return, he was just as good as he was before the injury. The Bills now have a choice between franchise tagging him for the 2nd straight year or letting him hit the open market, where he could become the highest paid safety in the NFL. Either way, he’ll get paid.

TE Scott Chandler

Scott Chandler is not explosive at all, but he’s a great blocker at 6-7 265 and he’s also a good possession receiver and end zone threat, in spite of his inability to get separation. Over the past 3 seasons as a starter, he’s caught 134 passes for 1615 yards and 14 touchdowns in 45 games. Last season was the best season of his career, as he caught 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns, reaching career highs in receptions and yardage, in spite of inconsistent quarterback play on a run heavy team. He was the team’s leader in both receptions and receiving yardage. He won’t command a ton of money on the open market, but the Bills will definitely need to replace him if he leaves.

K Dan Carpenter

Dan Carpenter was cut by the Dolphins before this season, but it was for financial reasons, not because of his performance. He was then cut by both the Cardinals and Jets, who brought him in purely as competition, but he caught on with the Bills, where he nailed 91.7% of his kicks. His career kicking percentage is 83.8% and it shouldn’t be hard for him to find work this off-season. My guess is the Bills want to bring him back.

Cap Casualty Candidates

QB Kevin Kolb

Yeah remember this guy? He’s still on the roster. The Bills signed Kevin Kolb to a two-year deal in the off-season to give them a stopgap for their rookie quarterback. However, Kolb continued to be injury prone and suffered a significant concussion in the pre-season that not only knocked him out for the season, but potentially for his career. He reportedly didn’t know his own name or where he was after that hit. There’s no chance the Bills keep him on the roster at a 3.1 million dollar salary. The Bills would save 3.1 million on the cap by cutting him and there’s a very good chance he just retires for his health. Hopefully he can live a normal life.

OT Erik Pears

Erik Pears isn’t terrible, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 55^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible and he’s heading into his age 32 contract year. The Bills can save 2.9 million in cash and cap space by cutting him and they’d have their choice of upgrades over him with the 9^th overall pick. He could also be moved to guard.

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Minnesota Vikings 2014 Off-Season Report

January 25, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Uncategorized, Vikings

2013 Recap

In 2012, the Vikings rode a historic season from Adrian Peterson all the way to the post-season. In 2013, Peterson went back to being just very good and the Vikings ended up winning just 5 games. Peterson rushed for 831 fewer yards in 2013 than 2012. 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries is definitely not a bad season, especially considering Peterson missed 2 meaningless games with injury, but because he wasn’t averaging 6.0 yards per carry, it exposed their quarterbacks.

Christian Ponder was benched after 3 games for Matt Cassel and then returned to the starting job after mid-season pickup Josh Freeman bombed his only start of the season. Ponder then played until he got hurt and then Matt Cassel took over for the rest of the season. Cassel attempted 254 passes on that quarterback carousel. Christian Ponder attempted 239 and Josh Freeman attempted 53. All in all, Minnesota quarterbacks completed 59.5% of their passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 76.0 that ranked 9^th worst in the NFL.

In spite of that, their offense wasn’t as much of the problem and the reason why they declined this season, as their defense was horrible. In terms of rate of moving the chains against, they ranked 30^th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.91% rate. Their offense wasn’t great, ranking 19^th and moving the chains at 70.56% rate, but they weren’t the biggest problem. They’re a quarterback away from being a very solid offense, with a great offensive line and running game and a solid set of weapons in the receiving game. I expect them to target quarterbacks early in the draft, but they are picking 8^th with a bunch of quarterback needy teams ahead of them so they might have to move up to get their guy.

So what happened to their defense? Well, they suffered more injuries than they did in 2012, when they barely suffered any injuries. The loss of secondary leader Harrison Smith was the most notable one. They also missed Antoine Winfield, who played great in 2012, but left as a cap casualty and eventually retired. Other 30+ veterans did not play up to their standards, including Kevin Williams, Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Chad Greenway.

One year after he was being touted as a Coach of the Year candidate, the Vikings fired Leslie Frazier after the season, in part because of the struggles of the defense, which is his specialty. He was replaced with another defensive coach in Mike Zimmer and he should be an upgrade. Zimmer has been an above average defensive coordinator for 14 years in the NFL, with the Cowboys, Falcons, and Bengals, but didn’t get his first head coaching job until now, when he’s going into his age 58 season, a testament to the NFL’s obsession with offensive coaches. 2013 was perhaps Zimmer’s best season as his Bengals were one of the best defenses in the NFL, despite losing Geno Atkins and Leon Hall to injury.

Zimmer will get the most out of the Vikings’ defense, just like he did with the Bengals’ defense. They don’t have nearly as much talent, especially since they could be undergoing a veteran purge, but Zimmer will do the best he can. I’m very excited to see what he can do with 2013 first round picks Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd, who will have bigger roles in 2014, as well as Harrison Smith, who had a strong rookie year in 2012, but missed most of 2013 with injury. Teams that have a big regression in win total tend to improve about half the total the following season. Given that, we could see the Vikings back in contention next season, especially if they can get the quarterback position right.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Cornerback

The Vikings took Xavier Rhodes in the first round in 2013, but they still need help at the position. Chris Cook and Marcus Sherels are both free agents and both struggled this season. Cook has had an inconsistent tenure in Minnesota, after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2010, which has included off the field problems. Sherels, meanwhile, is much more valuable as a return man than as a defensive back. Josh Robinson will still be under contract, but he’s been miserable in two seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade in 2012 and 12^th worst in terms of coverage grade in 2013. He shouldn’t be considered an option to start on the outside opposite Rhodes, so that’s a big need of theirs.

Defensive Tackle

The Vikings also took Sharrif Floyd in the first round in 2013, but defensive tackle remains a position of need. Kevin Williams and Fred Evans are both free agents this off-season and both are over 30, going into their age 34 and age 31 seasons respectively in 2014. Letroy Guion, meanwhile, is a mediocre at best player who could easily be a cap casualty this off-season. Floyd can be a replacement for Kevin Williams long-term, but they still need a long-term replacement for Pat Williams, who they have yet to replace since he retired following the 2011 season. This is something they need to address.

Defensive End

The Vikings have a bunch of free agents this off-season and things are no different at defensive end. Brian Robison was locked up on an extension this season, as he goes into his age 31 season, but Jared Allen and Everson Griffen are both free agents. Allen is going into his age 32 season anyway. My guess is they’d prefer to lock up Griffen, who is much younger and has thrived as a rotational player over the past few seasons, but it’s unlikely they’re going to be able to bring both back. They need to add depth at the very least.

Outside Linebacker

Chad Greenway used to be a great player, but he hasn’t graded out above average on Pro Football Focus since 2010 and last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, struggling in coverage and against the run and missing a league leading 21 tackles. He’ll make 6.5 million in 2014 and count for 8.4 million on the cap, in his age 31 season, so the Vikings could definitely cut him, which would free up 4.8 million in cap space. They may also keep him as a veteran presence if they don’t feel they need the cap space, but even if they don’t, he won’t be around much longer. They also may need to add someone opposite him as Marvin Mitchell is a free agent, though the two-down linebacker spot is much easier to fill.

Guard

The Vikings quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football. The only hole is left guard, where Charlie Johnson is a below average starter. Fortunately, he’s a free agent so the Vikings can use this opportunity to upgrade the position and improve even further on their dominant offensive line. After the quarterback position, this is their only real hole on offense.

Middle Linebacker

Erin Henderson is a decent starting linebacker, but he was arrested for DUI twice this season. He was benched following the first one and is now expected to be cut. The Vikings would save 2 million both in cash and on the cap by letting him go before his contract year next season. They’d need to replace him in that scenario, though Audie Cole, who flashed in limited action this season, could be a cheap internal option.

Punt Returner

I mentioned under the cornerback section that Marcus Sherels is a free agent. In spite of his issues in coverage, they need to bring him back because of his dominance as a punt returner. He was 2^nd in the NFL in punt return average, returning 22 punts for 335 yards and 1 touchdown, an average of 15.2 yards per punt return. In his career, he averages 10.3 yards per punt return. If he isn’t brought back, they’ll need to replace him.

Key Free Agents

DE Jared Allen

Jared Allen is has declined in Pro Football Focus’ rankings in every season since 2011, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked 4-3 defensive end. That makes sense as he’s getting older and he has played a significant snap total in almost every season in the league. He’s going into his age 32 season in 2014 and the Vikings don’t seem like they’re going to bring him back. Given the cold market that met Dwight Freeney and John Abraham last off-season, similar pass rushers in similar stages of their careers, Allen will probably have to settle for a short-term deal, hopefully with a contender.

DE Everson Griffen

Everson Griffen has played a significant role as a rotational player in the last two seasons, playing 623 snaps in 2012 and 717 snaps in 2013 and grading out about average. He’s going into the prime of his career, going into his age 27 season in 2014, and the Vikings, in a re-build, are much more likely to bring him back than Jared Allen. That would lead to a large role for him and he could thrive in Mike Zimmer’s defense. Expect him to re-sign with the Vikings on a multi-year deal that pays him like a starting caliber player.

DT Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams has been with the Vikings for 11 seasons since they drafted him 9^th overall in 2003, but it appears that his tenure with the team is up as he heads into his age 34 season. The Vikings have an in-house replacement for his 3-technique role in Sharrif Floyd, a 1^st round pick in 2013. He could retire, but he’s still got something left in the tank, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27^th ranked defensive tackle last season. He’ll probably be looking at short-term deals this off-season.

RB Toby Gerhart

Toby Gerhart was a premium pick in the 2^nd round in 2010, but has served purely as Adrian Peterson’s backup in 4 seasons. He’s been impressive when given a chance, rushing for 1305 yards and 5 touchdowns on 276 carries, 4.5 yards per carry, while adding 77 catches for 600 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. He could draw some interest as a lead back going into his age 27 season on the open market this off-season.

CB Marcus Sherels

Marcus Sherels isn’t much of defensive player. He had played 384 snaps in 2 seasons from 2011-2012 and this season, when he saw significant action, playing 545 snaps, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade. That being said, they need to bring him back because of his dominance as a punt returner. He was 2^nd in the NFL in punt return average, returning 22 punts for 335 yards and 1 touchdown, an average of 15.2 yards per punt return. In his career, he averages 10.3 yards per punt return.

CB Chris Cook

Chris Cook had a very disappointing 4 years in Minnesota after they drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2010. He played just 34 of a possible 64 games, for a variety of reasons, including injuries and off the field issues. And while he flashed in coverage from time to time, he was terrible in 2013, his most significant season in terms of snap count. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95^th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible, allowing 9 touchdowns to no interceptions and 71.2% completion. Only Justin Rogers allowed a higher QB rating. It’s easy to see why the Vikings drafted Cook so high. He has a rare combination of size and speed at 6-2 212 and at his best, he can be pretty damn good. My guess is his tenure in Minnesota is done and he’ll have to settle for one year prove it deals like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Aqib Talib did last off-season.

G Charlie Johnson

A 6^th round pick in 2006, Charlie Johnson has been a starter for quite a few years, playing both left guard and left tackle, dating back to his time in Indianapolis with the Colts. He’s never been particularly good though as he struggled to protect Peyton Manning’s blindside, arguably the easiest blindside to protect, and then in Minnesota he got replaced by 1^st round pick Matt Kalil and moved back to left guard. He’s the weakness on an otherwise strong Minnesota offensive line and the Vikings should take this opportunity to upgrade the position as he goes into his age 30 season. As for Johnson, he’s probably looking at one year deals without guarantees of a starting job.

WR Jerome Simpson

Simpson had a career high 726 receiving yards on 48 catches this season, though he did score just once. Still, he needed to have that kind of season after his miserable 2012 season, in which he struggled through injuries and caught just 26 passes for 274 yards. That being said, anyone signing him should know that he caught fewer than 50% of his targets not just last season, but in 2011, his other big receiving year (50/725/4). He also has a history of off the field problems. He’ll be greeted with a stronger market this year than last year, but he might still be looking at one year deals. The Vikings might be wise to bring him back cheap as a depth receiver.

OLB Marvin Mitchell

Marvin Mitchell was the 3^rd linebacker in Minnesota this season, but only played 310 snaps. He’s never played more than 361 snaps in a season since being drafted in the 7^th round in 2007 and he’s already going into his age 30 season. He’s almost definitely looking at one year deals this off-season. He wasn’t bad in his role last season so it might make sense for the Vikings to bring him back cheap, but he’ll also be very easy to replace if they don’t. Finding a two-down outside linebacker isn’t hard.

QB Josh Freeman

I’m not entirely sure what happened to Josh Freeman, but in his last 8 starts, Josh Freeman has completed 47.8% of his passes for an average of 5.80 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He was demoted to 3^rd string in Tampa Bay and cut despite still being owed a guaranteed salary. He then picked up 3 million from Minnesota, but ended up making just one start, a national televised trainwreck against the Giants in which he completed 20 of 53 for 190 yards and an interception. Sure, he probably didn’t have the playbook down yet, but the fact that the Vikings never went back to him for the rest of the season says something. Many members of the media have suggested there’s something deeper to his struggles, though those in the know seem uncomfortable divulging this information. Whatever it is, NFL teams are likely aware of it as well and Freeman should consider himself lucky if he even gets a chance to compete for a starting job anywhere this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DT Letroy Guion

Letroy Guion has graded out well below average in a rotational role over the past 2 seasons, including ranking dead last among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 on just 509 snaps. In 2013, he played just 397 snaps behind Kevin Williams and Sharrif Floyd. The Vikings can save 4 million in cash and on the cap by cutting him this off-season so he’s probably as good as gone.

MLB Erin Henderson

OLB Chad Greenway

TE John Carlson

The 5 year, 25 million dollar deal the Vikings gave John Carlson last 2 years ago was absurd. He caught just 31 passes in 2010 and missed all of 2011 with injury and the Vikings already had Kyle Rudolph. Carlson caught just 8 passes in his first year with the team. This year, with Kyle Rudolph missing time with injury, Carlson had an opportunity to shine, but caught just 32 passes on the season. Carlson could easily be cut this off-season, which would free up 2 million in cap space. With Kyle Rudolph coming back, that’s definitely a possibility. He wouldn’t be worth his 4 million dollar salary as a backup.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2014 Off-Season Report

January 22, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dished out more big contracts over the past few years than perhaps any team in the NFL. They’ve re-signed Davin Joseph (7 years, 52.5 million), Donald Penn (6 years, 41.7 million), Mike Williams (6 years, 40.25 million), and Quincy Black (5 years, 29 million), signed Carl Nicks (5 years, 47.5 million), Vincent Jackson (5 years, 55.5 million), Dashon Goldson (5 years, 41.25 million), and Eric Wright (5 years, 37.5 million), and traded for Darrelle Revis (6 years, 96 million).

Some of those deals have panned out. Vincent Jackson has been their #1 receiver with 150 catches for 2608 yards and 15 touchdowns in the past 2 seasons combined. Donald Penn has been a fixture as an above average blindside protector. Darrelle Revis shook off a torn ACL and re-emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL last season. However, most of those deals have been disappointing.

Quincy Black and Eric Wright were both gone within 2 years of signing those deals. Davin Joseph suffered a knee injury in 2012 and was one of the worst guards in the league in 2013. Carl Nicks has been a very good guard when on the field, but has played just 9 games in two years because of a toe injury and a subsequent infection. Both could be cap casualties this off-season. Dashon Goldson graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in his first year with the Buccaneers after signing a record deal for a safety. Mike Williams has the potential to bounce back going forward, but he missed 10 games with injury and caught just 22 passes in the first year of his extension this season.

The Buccaneers’ problems have not been limited to free agency. High draft picks committed to Josh Freeman, Brian Price, Arrelious Benn, Da’Quan Bowers, Adrian Clayborn, and Mark Barron have yet to pay the dividends they were supposed to. As a result, the Buccaneers are a 4-12 team pressed up against the cap and GM Mark Dominik was fired this off-season after 5 seasons with the team, in which they went 28-52 and failed to make the playoffs. They haven’t made the playoffs since the 2007 season under Jon Gruden and they’re already on their 3^rd head coach since Gruden was let go.

The Buccaneers might have been even worse than their 4-12 record would suggest. Sure, they went 2-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a tough schedule, but they also went 4-12 despite a +10 turnover margin, which can be tough to maintain on a year-to-year basis, especially for bad teams. The Buccaneers went 1-11 this season when they didn’t win the turnover battle. They’re way too reliant on that. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they ranked 30^th, which is about right. This is one of the worst teams in the NFL in spite of all the money they spent.

It’s not all bad for the Buccaneers though. The trio of Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis might all be among the top-20 players in the NFL, as they graded out 1^st, 2^nd, and 1^st at their respective positions on Pro Football Focus this season. Their defense was the definition of top heavy as those were the only three players that graded out above average and played more than 300 snaps, but the core is there for them to build around. It’s much easier to upgrade from poor to average than it is to upgrade from average to great. Players like those 3 are rare and represent three positive things from Mark Dominik’s tenure.

Another positive thing he left behind was Mike Glennon, who definitely flashed as a third round rookie quarterback, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He’s expected to get another chance as the starter in 2014 and could be the answer at quarterback if he develops properly. The Buccaneers will also get Doug Martin and Mike Williams back from injury for next season.

The other positive thing for the Buccaneers was that they hired Lovie Smith, an accomplished head coach and a defensive mastermind who was sorely missed by the Bears this season. The Buccaneers had to settle for bottom of the barrel coaching options the last two times around in Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano because of the poor reputation of the Buccaneers’ owners around the league, so they should consider themselves lucky that Smith was willing to take the job. Smith is familiar with the organization, serving as linebackers coach from 1996-2000.

I’m very excited to see what he’ll be able to do with Gerald McCoy (in the Tommie Harris/Henry Melton role) and Lavonte David (in the Lance Briggs role) and to see if he can help the rest of the defense play better around them, including former high draft picks Da’Quan Bowers, Adrian Clayborn, Johnthan Banks and Mark Barron and high paid underachieving safety Dashon Goldson. There’s some concern about how Darrelle Revis will fit his scheme because he’s a pure man cornerback, but Smith let Charles Tillman play man in Chicago so I’m not too concerned. He’s not dumb.

Smith’s biggest flaw and what led to his eventual termination in Chicago was his tendency to pick incompetent coaches to run his offense. Smith has tabbed former University of California coach Jeff Tedford as his offensive coordinator and he’ll be tasking with aiding in Mike Glennon’s development, which could make or break this team going forward. Tedford is a bit of a wild card. He coached 6 different future NFL 1^st round pick quarterbacks while in college, but only Aaron Rodgers panned out as the other 5 included Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and David Carr, who are among the biggest busts in NFL history (the 6^th is Trent Dilfer). I want to give Smith the benefit of the doubt with his judgment of offensive minds, but he hasn’t earned that with his history.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

The Buccaneers used 1^st and 2^nd round picks on defensive ends in Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers and they haven’t really panned out. Clayborn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 52 eligible in 2013, while Bowers played just 212 snaps behind Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, who was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 defensive end. Clayborn could bounce back next season, another year removed from his torn ACL, and he did flash before the injury. However, even then they need someone opposite him. If any of Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr, or Khalil Mack is still there at #7 overall, I expect them to pull the trigger.

Middle Linebacker

Lovie Smith suggested at his introductory press conference that he’s looking to upgrade the middle linebacker position. That makes sense. Mason Foster has graded out below average in all 3 seasons as a starter since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2011 and he’s a poor fit for the cover 2. Smith will be looking for his next Brian Urlacher. That won’t be easy, but it’ll be easier to find someone better than Foster so expect them to target this position early in the draft, perhaps in the 2^nd round.

Tight End

Tim Wright emerged as a solid receiving threat out of the tight end position, this season, catching 54 passes for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns as an undrafted rookie. However, the 6-3 220 pound converted wide receiver is not an inline tight end by any stretch of the imagination and a very poor blocker. Wright would be better served in a joker role, playing out wide, in the slot, at h-back, and as a move tight end, behind a true inline tight end.

Defensive Tackle

It’s really amazing how good of a season Gerald McCoy had considering he was the only one on his defensive line that the opposing team had to worry about. They started 4^th round rookie Akeem Spence at defensive tackle next to him and he played as you’d expected a 4^th round rookie to play, grading out as Pro Football Focus 3^rd worst ranked defensive tackle. He could be better in 2014, but they should bring in some competition for his job.

Guard

The Buccaneers could make both Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks cap casualties this off-season, as Joseph graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked guard this season and Nicks has played just 9 games in 2 seasons with foot problems and may never play again because of nerve damage. All of their internal replacements sucked this season so they should replace both of them from the outside if they do cut them.

Outside Linebacker

This is another spot on the defense that needs help, the outside linebacker spot opposite Lavonte David. They could fill this spot by moving Mason Foster here or by drafting someone like Anthony Barr or Khalil Mack to play the Von Miller role. It’s a two-down role anyway so this one isn’t that high up on their list, especially since it’ll be easy to fill.

Wide Receiver

The Buccaneers have no depth behind Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. When the latter went out for the season 6 games into it this season, they didn’t have a suitable replacement. Tiquan Underwood had just 24 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns on 376 routes run and he’s a free agent anyway. Depth needs to be added.

Quarterback

Is Mike Glennon the quarterback of the future? His 19 touchdowns to 9 interception ratio would suggest he is, but he also completed just 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 yards per attempt. He was an obvious upgrade over Josh Freeman, but the Buccaneers still moved the chains at a 66.29% rate this season, 27^th in the NFL, with Glennon making 13 starts. He’s the heavy favorite to be the starter in 2014, but they need to add a better backup than Dan Orlovsky, who is a free agent this off-season anyway.

Key Free Agents

WR Tiquan Underwood

Tiquan Underwood was the Buccaneers’ 3^rd string wide receiver this season and was pressed into starting action for the final 10 games of the season with Mike Williams hurt. He didn’t impress with his opportunity, as he had just 24 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns on 376 routes run. The man who was infamously cut by the Patriots the day before the Super Bowl in the 2011 season, Underwood has just 63 catches for 1009 yards and 6 touchdowns in 4 seasons. The former 7^th round pick of the Jaguars out of Rutgers is purely a depth receiver and situational deep threat.

DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

A 3^rd round pick out of Washington in 2010 by the Eagles, Te’o-Nesheim has carved out a significant role in Tampa Bay over the past 2 seasons, playing 748 snaps in 2012 and 616 snaps in 2013. However, he’s been terrible, especially in 2013, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 defensive end. He had just 1 sack, 9 hits, and 14 hurries on 328 pass rush snaps, managed 10 total solo tackles, including 9 stops, and missed 7. He shouldn’t get anything close to guaranteed money for next season.

Potential Cap Casualties

DT Derek Landri

The Buccaneers can save 1.5 million in cash and cap space by cutting Landri, so it seems like a no brainer. He played just 124 snaps, despite the Buccaneers need at the defensive tackle position, and graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus on those snaps.

G Davin Joseph

The 7-year, 52.5 million dollar contract the Buccaneers gave Davin Joseph was a mistake from the start. The year before he received it, he was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard, despite playing just 11 games. In 2011, the first year of his contract, he continued to struggle, grading out below average and then he didn’t play at all in 2012 with a knee injury. This past season he was their 2^nd worst ranked guard. The Buccaneers have a new front office and coaching staff so Joseph’s hall pass has probably run out as he heads into his age 31 season. The Buccaneers can save 6 million in cap space by cutting him and get out of the remaining 27.5 million he’s owed penalty free.

G Carl Nicks

Carl Nicks received a massive 5 year 48.5 million dollar contract from the Buccaneers and, even though he’s a guard, it was worth it. Nicks has played well when on the field in the first two seasons of the deal, but he’s played just 11 games thanks to a toe injury and a subsequent infection. He now has nerve damage that may potentially end his career. Given that, it makes sense for the Buccaneers to cut him and save 2.286 million on the cap this off-season, as good as he can be when healthy.

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Atlanta Falcons 2014 Off-Season Report

January 20, 2014 stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Falcons, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Falcons were definitely going to regress this season. The average 13-win team wins 9.5 games the following season. The Falcons played just 2 eventual playoff teams in 2012 and went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had an unsustainable +13 turnover margin, which was powered by an unsustainable 64.3% fumble recovery rate. They also had significant off-season losses. They lost their best two defensive linemen, John Abraham and Vance Walker, and only replaced them with an aging Osi Umenyiora. They lost two offensive line starters and had just two players playing in their 2012 spot on the line. The switch from Michael Turner to Steven Jackson appeared to be an upgrade, but with Jackson heading into his 30s, it was tough to expect much.

However, the Falcons regressed in a way that no one saw coming. They went from 13 wins to 4 wins as injuries ravaged the team. Sean Weatherspoon, Sam Baker, Kroy Biermann, and Julio Jones all missed significant time with injury, while Roddy White was limited by lower body injuries all season. Steven Jackson also missed significant time with injury and struggled when he did play, showing his age. White and Jackson were a part of a group of 30+ veterans who disappointed on this team, including Asante Samuel, Stephen Nicholas, and Osi Umenyiora, all of whom were benched at one point or another.

Baker and Weatherspoon also struggled when they were in the lineup, hurting their linebacking corps and offensive line significantly. The former unit was forced to rely significantly on two undrafted rookies, Joplo Bartu and Paul Worillow, while the latter saw two 2^nd year players, Lamar Holmes and Peter Konz, play among the worst in the league at their respective positions. Add in a disappointing year from safety Thomas DeCoud and you had a team that had little around the quarterback position.

It’s very hard for a team to win just 4 games with a strong quarterback and Matt Ryan is not to blame, as he completed 67.4% of his passes for 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him. However, the Falcons had ones of the worst defenses in the NFL, struggling in all facets and the only thing that worked on the offensive side was the passing game, as they were unable to pass protect or establish anything on the ground.

The good news is that things should turn around in 2014. Teams that see significant drops in win totals often rebound and wind up, on average, right in the middle of their strong season and their bad season. That would put the Falcons at 8 or 9 wins, which isn’t hard to imagine given their recent history of success. They should have significantly fewer injuries and they have plenty of cap space to build their roster. They also have the 6^th overall pick in the draft to add a much needed cheap blue chip. Also, things that are usually kind to the Falcons were not in 2014. They went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less and their turnover margin was -7 as they forced just 21 takeaways. Those things should turn around in 2014 and allow this team to compete for a playoff spot.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

Maybe edge rusher is a better term here because Mike Nolan will want someone who is versatile enough to play in all schemes. The Falcons had just 32 sacks this season, which ranked tied for 3rd worst in the NFL, and they are Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked team in terms of pass rush. Osi Umenyiora was their big free agent pass rusher signing, but he was benched towards the end of the season and he’s unlikely to be brought back next season, owed 3.5 million dollars in his age 33 contract year. They need at least one, if not two new starters at defensive end/edge rusher. Jadeveon Clowney or Anthony Barr could be very intriguing at #6.

Defensive Tackle

The Falcons top-3 defensive tackles are all free agents this off-season and the odds are against them bringing all 3 of Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters, and Peria Jerry back. Even if they do, Babineaux is heading into his age 33 season, while Jerry, a 2009 1^st round pick, has been a complete bust and is barely a rotational caliber player at this point in his career. Corey Peters, meanwhile, played well this season, but was terrible in 2012 so he’s tough to trust.

Offensive Tackle

The Falcons gave Sam Baker a 6 year, 41.1 million dollar deal last off-season after the 2008 1^st rounder had a strong contract year. The first year of that deal went as bad as it possibly could have. Baker’s tendency to get injured returned and he played just 190 snaps. He was horrific on those 190 snaps, allowing a sack, 7 hits, and 12 hurries. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse than him on Pro Football Focus in either overall grade or pass blocking grade. Despite such limited snaps, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th worst ranked offensive tackle overall.

He’ll be back next season because he still has guaranteed money left on his deal and cutting him would cost 9.2 million on the cap. However, they need help opposite him. Lamar Holmes, a 2012 3^rd round pick, has been awful this far in his career. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked offensive tackle in 2013, allowing 10 sacks, 13 hits, and 53 hurries, while committing 12 penalties. He could still turn it around, but given that he was just a 3^rd round pick, it’s looking unlikely. They can’t let him come into 2014 as the uncontested starting right tackle.

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez is retiring, at least for now. The Falcons need a new tight end to replace him. Levine Toilolo, a 2013 4^th round pick, was their 2^nd string tight end last season, but he only played 198 snaps because the Falcons almost never use two-tight end sets, catching 11 passes for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s a decent blocker and goal line weapon, but I don’t know if he’s a good enough receiver to be a #1 tight end. They should bring someone else into the mix.

Guard

Left guard Justin Blalock was their only good offensive lineman in 2013. They need help at right guard opposite him. Garrett Reynolds has been very inconsistent in his career and was benched last season for Joe Hawley, who took over at center, moving Peter Konz to right guard. Konz was horrible at right guard, just as he was at center. They need to bring in competition for Reynolds, as Hawley, a decent reserve, is a free agent this off-season.

Center

Peter Konz has been a complete bust in 2 years since being a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6^th worst ranked guard in 2012. In 2013, he started the season at center, his collegiate position, but struggled and moved back to right guard. Despite splitting time at the two positions, he was still both Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked center and their 68^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. They need to bring in some competition for him.

Running Back

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily and replace him, but even if they don’t, they need a running back for the future as Jackson is heading into his age 31 season.

Cornerback

The Falcons used 1^st and 2^nd round picks on cornerbacks in 2013 NFL Draft, taking Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, but they might still need help at the position this off-season. Asante Samuel is expected to be a cap casualty, while Robert McClain is a free agent. If they don’t retain him, they’ll need to get someone to replace him.

Middle Linebacker

Paul Worrilow took over as the starting middle linebacker as an undrafted rookie this season. He wasn’t terrible, but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 41^st ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. The Falcons do seem to like him so he’ll probably be back as the starter next season, but it might not be a bad idea to get a cheap veteran backup just in case he continues to struggle.

Safety

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2^nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a good amount on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. If they cut him, they’ll need to find some sort of replacement. Perhaps 2013 undrafted rookie Zeke Motta can be that guy and they might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs. That’s why it’s at the bottom on this list.

Key Free Agents

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Babineaux has played in 138 games for the Falcons, missing a combined 4 over the past 6 seasons, since being taken in the 2^nd round in 2005 out of Iowa. Since Pro Football Focus’ first season in 2008, Babineaux has graded out above average in all 6 seasons, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2009 and grading out 13^th as recently as 2011. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 33 season this off-season so he’ll probably be looking at short-term deals, but he should still be able to get 3-5 million dollars per year.

DT Corey Peters

A 3^rd round pick in 2010, Corey Peters has been a pretty inconsistent player thus far in his career, playing significant amounts of snaps in all 4 seasons and alternating between below average and above average seasons on Pro Football Focus. For example, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked defensive tackle, but in 2013, he graded out 30^th and significantly above average. He’ll get a decent amount of money on a 3 or 4 year deal going into the prime of his career. Of the Falcons’ 3 free agents at defensive tackle, Peters should be their #1 priority because of his combination of youth and talent.

CB Robert McClain

Robert McClain broke out as the nickel back in 2012 for the Falcons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked cornerback. He wasn’t nearly as good in 2013, grading out right around average, playing about half the snaps, but he still should be retained because he’s one of the few talented young players the Falcons have. He should get a bigger role in 2014.

DT Peria Jerry

Peria Jerry has been a complete bust as a 2009 1^st round pick. 2010 was the only season he graded out above average and he did that on 213 snaps. 2013 was his worst season as he played a career high 678 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th worst ranked defensive tackle. He’s looking at rotational work on a one year deal at best this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Asante Samuel

Asante Samuel is going into his age 33 season and he’s as good as gone after getting moved down to 4^th string behind rookies Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford late last season. Samuel is owed 4.5 million in salary and bonuses in 2014 in his contract year and the Falcons can save 4.5 million on the cap by letting him go.

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is another veteran who is as good as gone. Umenyiora was their big pass rush signing last off-season and though he led the team with 7 sacks, he still wasn’t as good as they needed him to be and they benched him down the stretch to evaluate younger players. The Falcons can save both 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go, as he heads into his age 33 season.

RB Jason Snelling

Jason Snelling was arrested this season and the Falcons have generally displayed a no tolerance policy in the past in terms of players with off the field run ins. Given that, it’s pretty safe to assume that Snelling will be cut, saving 1.375 million in cash and cap space. He’s also going into his age 31 season in 2014 and had just 44 carries in an underwhelming backfield in 2013, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

OLB Stephen Nicholas

Stephen Nicholas has been jumped on the depth chart by two undrafted rookies Paul Worrilow and Joplo Bartu and played just 132 snaps in 2013, the 3^rd year of a 5 year deal. The Falcons can save a combined 7.5 million in cash in 2014 and 2015 and 2 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season, as he goes into his age 31 season.

OLB Kroy Biermann

Kroy Biermann missed most of last season with injury and has yet to establish himself as an impact edge rusher. The Falcons can save 3.05 million on the cap next season and in cash by cutting him, but they may keep him around because of how thin they are at edge rusher.

RB Steven Jackson

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily, saving about 1.8 million on next year’s cap in the process, if they choose.

S Thomas DeCoud

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2^nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a 3 million on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. They also might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs.

TE Tony Gonzalez

This is just formality as Gonzalez is technically under contract for 2014 at the salary of 7 million. He’s expected to retire, however, so the Falcons won’t technically have to cut him to realize savings of 7 million in cash and cap space. Gonzalez will now sit and wait for the Hall of Fame to call, though he did leave the window open for him to return mid-season to a contender in 2014.

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