2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

QB Alex Smith (Kansas City)

Smith was never really on the fantasy football radar as a starter, but the arrow is trending downward for him. He lost arguably his best 3 offensive linemen this off-season and the receiving corps wasn’t fixed. He’ll have a tougher schedule this season and have more injuries around him, after the Chiefs were the healthiest team in the NFL last season. Dwayne Bowe, Smith’s best wide receiver, is already out for the opener with a suspension. Reach higher with your QB2.

3450 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 250 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (227 pts standard)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Last season, Charles averaged 4.97 yards per carry on 259 yards, rushing for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns, in addition leading the team in receiving with 70 catches for 693 yards and 7 touchdowns. In 2012, on a bad team and a year removed from a torn ACL, he averaged 5.29 yards per carry on 285 carries, rushing for 1509 yards and 5 touchdowns, a season that would have gotten much more recognition if the Chiefs had been better and if Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning hadn’t had more impressive comeback seasons. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the best running back in football. His 5.58 career yards per carry are the highest all-time by a modern era running back (1960-today). Jim Brown comes in 2nd and even the legendary Brown averaged “just” 5.22 yards per carry.

Charles will probably never be a 300+ carry back under Andy Reid, but the Chiefs pass to the running back enough to make up for it. There are some concerns here though. I already mentioned the Chiefs’ declining offensive line in front of him. It’s also just very tough to count on your star running back to do everything on offense. The 5-10 200 pound back now has 649 touches in 2 seasons back from that torn ACL and he could be wearing out a little bit going into his age 28 season. Injuries are always a concern with running backs though and there are few safer top-3 running backs than Charles.

250 carries for 1300 yards, 12 total touchdowns, 61 catches for 540 yards (256 pts standard)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

Dwayne Bowe was supposed to have the best season of his career last year. Bowe has always been able to put up big numbers, catching 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career before last season, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. However, last year with Smith, arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with, he managed just 57 passes for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns. He and Smith showed terrible chemistry and Bowe looked out of shape after getting a big off-season contract. There’s been talk that he could bounce back this year, but off-season reports have been mixed, he’s going into his age 30 season, and he’s going to miss the opener with a suspension. I don’t expect much more from him this season.

61 catches for 760 yards and 7 touchdowns (118 pts standard)

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San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor. Aging, with just 2 years left on his deal, there was talk that the Chargers could draft a quarterback of the future behind Rivers. He wasn’t supposed to improve going into 2013. Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, completing 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 105.5, tying his career high. The additions of Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and King Dunlap around him really helped, as did the additions of Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt as head coach and offensive coordinator respectively. Whisenhunt is gone and it’ll be hard for Rivers to match the best season of his career at age 33. He’s also a better quarterback in real life than fantasy because the Chargers run a lot, but he’s still a borderline QB1.

4250 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing touchdowns (269 pts standard)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

Ryan Mathews will continue being the lead back. Mathews was the 12th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft after the Chargers traded up for him. He had a disappointing first 3 years in the league, struggling to stay on the field (missing 10 games in 3 seasons) and totaling 564 carries from 2010-2012. However, he finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries (4.40 yards per carry) and playing all 16 games. He didn’t contribute much in the passing game (26 catches), but he’s shown pass catching ability in the past (50 catches in 2011). Mathews could have another solid season in 2014, but he could just as easily get hurt.

240 carries for 1060 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 37 catches for 270 yards (175 pts standard)

RB Donald Brown (San Diego)

The Chargers did sign insurance for Mathews in the form of Donald Brown. Donald Brown has never had more than 150 touches in a season since being drafted in the 1st round in 2009. He averages 4.31 yards per carry for his career and he’s a liability on passing downs as he doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher or pass protector. He had a strong contract year, averaging 5.26 yards per carry, catching 27 passes for 214 yards and scoring a total of 7 times. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked running back and ranked 1st in elusive rating. That being said, that was on only 102 carries and 379 total snaps and, given his history, it’s a major leap to suggest he could be a consistently successful lead back if needed. He’s probably best off in this backup role, which is what he’ll be in San Diego. He should still carries from Danny Woodhead (429 yards on 106 carries) and could make a couple starts in the absence of Mathews is he gets hurt.

110 carries for 480 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 110 yards (83 pts standard)

RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

Neither Brown nor Mathews showed much as a pass catcher last season, but that’s fine because the Chargers have Danny Woodhead as a pass catching specialist. He caught 76 passes last season on 302 routes run for 609 receiving yards, an average of 2.02 yards per route run. He was Darren Sproles 2.0 for the Chargers, a big part of their short, quick throw offense, something they and Philip Rivers had been missing badly since Sproles left. He’s not much of a rusher though. Woodhead had 106 carries last season, a career high, but only rushed for 4.05 yards per carry. Brown will eat into his carries.

70 carries for 300 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 65 catches for 550 yards (109 pts standard)

WR Keenan Allen (San Diego)

Even though he didn’t play at all week 1 and didn’t move into the starting lineup until week 4, Allen still caught 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. Rookie wide receivers aren’t supposed to get it this quickly. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Allen blew those numbers out of the water and he was a 3rd round pick. Allen continued this strong play into the post-season, where he caught 8 passes for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games.

Allen did all of this despite “only” running 510 pass snaps and seeing the bulk of the defense’s attention as a #1 wide receiver as a rookie. He averaged 2.06 yards per route run. And it wasn’t like the Chargers were forcing him the ball. Allen’s 101 targets were 31st in the NFL (he caught 70.3% of them) and Philip Rivers had a 118.1 QB rating throwing to Allen. He doesn’t have massive upside like AJ Green or Julio Jones, who were productive as rookies, but he could have a career similar to Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin, who were also productive as rookies, and he should be even more productive this season simply by virtue of the fact that he’ll play more this season. An extra 50 routes run should be another 100 yards.

82 catches for 1160 yards and 10 touchdowns (176 pts standard)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

Antonio Gates turned in a vintage season last year, catching 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns, his highest receiving total since 2009 and played all 16 games, something else he hadn’t done since 2009. However, now he heads into his age 34 season and his 2012 season in which he caught 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns is still fairly recent and relevant. He also missed 10 games from 2010-2012 and caught just 24 passes for 223 yards and 1 touchdown in the Chargers’ final 8 games of the season, including playoffs.

48 catches for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard)

TE Lardarius Green (San Diego)

If Gates starts to show his age more, it’ll probably be more snaps for Ladarius Green, a 2012 4th round pick and Gates’ heir apparent. Green only ran 141 routes last season, but impressed, catching 17 passes for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 2.67 yards per route run. There’s a lot of off-season buzz around him so he’s worth a late round flier in deeper leagues.

32 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

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Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Expecting Manning to come close to putting up 55 and 5500 again in 2014 (both records) is very naïve and short-sighted. Manning is now going into his age 38 season, has lost Eric Decker, and last season is simply impossible to repeat. He could still throw up 4800 and 40 (which would be the 2nd highest yardage total and 3rd highest touchdown total of his career) and be the best passing quarterback in the NFL, but I like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers more because Brees is on an offense that is more pass heavy and Rodgers adds value on the ground.

4800 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (334 pts standard)

RB Montee Ball (Denver)

Ball is unproven, with only 140 career touches, all as a rookie in 2013. However, the 2013 2nd round pick showed good running ability, averaging 4.66 yards per carry and showing the kind of pass catching ability (20 catches for 145 yards) that he never really displayed in college. He’ll the clear lead back this season, at least on early downs, and he’ll have plenty of room to run and opportunities for touchdowns on this explosive Broncos offense.

250 carries for 1100 rushing yards, 11 total touchdowns, 28 catches for 220 receiving yards (198 pts standard)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas has broken out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL statistically over the past 2 seasons, combining to catch 186 passes for 2864 yards and 26 touchdowns in those 2 years. Obviously, Peyton Manning’s arrival had something to do with that, but the 2010 1st round pick had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs, with Tim Tebow in 2011. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Manning won’t throw as many yards or touchdowns this year, but with Eric Decker gone and Wes Welker aging, Thomas should exceed the 138 targets he had last season (only 12th in the NFL) and could have the best season of his career in his contract year.

98 catches for 1520 yards and 13 touchdowns (230 pts standard)

WR Wes Welker (Denver)

With Decker gone, Welker should have a bigger role this season. He played just 38.7 pass snaps per game last season, as opposed to 42.2 for Decker and 43.6 for Thomas. However, he’s an aging player going into his age 33 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Welker is “only” 47th in all-time receiving yards. He definitely showed some of this deterioration last season, missing 3 games with injury and averaging 1.64 yards per route run, pretty middle of the pack, especially considering he had the best quarterback in the NFL throwing passes to him. He’s also unlikely to score 10 times again, after averaging just over 6 touchdowns per season in New England.

77 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Denver)

Sanders is Decker’s replacement and will play in 3-wide receiver sets, which the Broncos run often. In two years of significant experience in Pittsburgh, Sanders averaged 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run in 2012 and 2013 respectively, showing himself to be just a guy. However, Manning has turned average receivers into productive fantasy players before. Sanders is a bench stash with nice upside.

60 catches for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard)

TE Julius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas had a breakout year in Denver’s offense last season, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. I don’t see the production really going anywhere and he could be Manning’s #2 option this season with Decker gone, but I’m skeptical that he can catch 12 touchdowns on 65 passes again. Double digit scores isn’t out of the question though.

62 catches for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns (136 pts standard)

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