2014 Week 1 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Eagles, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all. The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse than their 4-12 record would have suggested and they were the worst team in the NFL. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

When you look at this roster, it’s easy to see why they struggled. They were grossly mismanaged in the Gene Smith era and they’re only going into the 2nd year of their new front office and it’s going to take time to rebuild. I don’t really see how they are going to be significantly better this season. They didn’t have an unsustainably poor turnover margin or fumble recovery rate last season. They didn’t have an enormous amount of injuries last season. They didn’t have a hard schedule last season. They didn’t have bad luck and lose a lot of close games.

They didn’t add a lot of talent this off-season. They signed Toby Gerhart, a backup from Minnesota, to be their starting running back. They overpaid for Zane Beadles and Ziggy Hood for the offensive and defensive lines. They signed a pair of aging ex-Seahawk defensive linemen in Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. They drafted a pair of wide receivers in the 2nd round, but rookie wide receivers tend to struggle and they’ll probably be without suspended wide receiver Justin Blackmon for the entire season. I don’t see anyone on the team who is in the top-200 players in the NFL.

They used the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft on Blake Bortles. He may be their long-term savior, but the Jaguars are wisely going to let him develop on the bench as a rookie so he won’t contribute much, leaving Chad Henne to quarterback an awful supporting cast. Philadelphia is once again a solid football team so this line should be closer to 14. The Jaguars were blown out on a bunch of occasions last season and should get blown out here again.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

I feel the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye. They were 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, with a differential of 5.42%. They moved the chains at a 73.92% rate, 10th in the NFL, and they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 68.50% rate, 9th in the NFL. They have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but they’ve had significant issues with close losses and turnovers over the past couple of seasons.

The Lions went 4-12 in 2012, but they were much better than their record suggested. They went 3-8 in games decided by a touchdown in 2012 and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, coming from their -65 point differential. That point differential would have been much better if they hadn’t allowed 10 return touchdowns, while scoring none for themselves. If that was zeroed out, they would have had a +5 point differential and essentially been an 8-8 team.

Going off of that, they had an unsustainably poor turnover margin of -13, largely because of an unsustainably poor fumble recovery rate of 32.56%. Turnover margins (and along with that return touchdown margins) are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Lions ranked 16th in DVOA in 2012 despite their record and they were supposed to be a significantly improved team last season.

They were an improved team, going 7-9, but they still missed out on the playoffs and they still were better than their record. They still had a -12 turnover margin, driven by a 42.55% fumble recovery rate. They still went 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins. The things that are supposed to even out in the long run (record in close games, fumble recovery, turnover margin) have not been evening out for this team over the past 2 seasons. The Lions fired head coach Jim Schwartz in an effort to fix this.

They replaced him with Jim Caldwell, which was kind of a weird move. The Lions will be hoping that they’re getting the coach who went 24-8 in his first 2 years with the Colts, the coach who was recommended by Peyton Manning, and the offensive coordinator who turned the Ravens’ offense around mid-season in 2012 en route to a Super Bowl victory, rather than the coach who went 2-14 in his only season with the Colts without Peyton Manning, getting fired, and the offensive coordinator who led one of the worst offenses in the league last season in Baltimore. Either way, the Lions could easily see their poor record in close games and their poor turnover margin even out in their first year under Caldwell, which would allow all the talent they have to shine.

The Giants, meanwhile, were one of the worst teams in the league last season, worse than their record. They finished the season winning 7 of their last 10, but their 7 wins came against opponents that finished a combined 42-68-2, 24-55-1 if you exclude the two playoff teams they beat who were starting backup quarterbacks (Green Bay with Scott Tolzien and Philadelphia with Michael Vick). They finished 7-9 but they had a -89 point differential, ranked 27thin DVOA, and 26th in rate of moving the chains.  They should be an improved team this year with fewer injuries, a better turnover margin, and talent coming in this off-season through free agency. However, that might not necessarily show up in their record and their two biggest off-season additions (Odell Beckham and Geoff Schwartz) won’t play in this game. If this game were week 8, I think this line would be in the double digits so I’m very happy getting it at 6, even though I wish I had locked this in a few weeks ago when it was at 4.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

It’s hard to find a team that has lost as much talent since the last time we played football as the Cardinals, particularly defensively. Karlos Dansby is gone as a free agent. Daryl Washington was suspended for the season. Darnell Dockett is out for the season with an injury. Meanwhile, John Abraham is going into his age 36 season and Tyrann Mathieu is going to miss the start of the season with injury.

Offensively, they had the potential to be better this season with Jared Veldheer coming in as a free agent, Andre Ellington stepping into the lead back role, and Jonathan Cooper coming back from injury. However, Ellington is expected to be out for this game, leaving Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor as their top running backs and Cooper is having issues coming back from his injury and can’t crack the starting lineup.

In spite of that, they’re still favored by a field goal here at home, which suggests they are roughly equal to the Chargers. I don’t agree with that. The Chargers are unlikely to be quite as good offensively as they were last season with Philip Rivers going into his age 33 season and Ken Whisenhunt gone, but they get Melvin Ingram and Dwight Freeney back from injury 100% and Brandon Flowers comes in as a free agent. I like the underdog a fair amount here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: San Diego +3

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cowboys, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

This is another one I’m kicking myself for not betting earlier. The 49ers opened as favorites of less than a field goal here in Dallas, but the public seems to have caught on that the Cowboys are going to be awful this season and the line is now at 4.5. That crosses over the key numbers of 3 and 4 and loses us a lot of value here. The 49ers are still my pick here. They tend to beat up on bad teams and should be able to win by at least a touchdown here in Dallas.

The Cowboys are going to be close to an all-time bad defensively. They were awful last season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77.66%, easily worst in the NFL, and they could be even worse this season. The Cowboys had 4 players play more than 100 snaps on defense last season and grade out above average on Pro Football Focus. Two of them (Jason Hatcher and DeMarcus Ware) are gone, while another one (Sean Lee) is out for the season with injury and the 4th (Orlando Scandrick) will start the season with a 4 game suspension.

Guys like Henry Melton, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Anthony Spencer were supposed to come in as reinforcements, but Melton is a question mark in terms of how good he can be coming off of a torn ACL, Lawrence is out with a foot injury, and Spencer is still not back from serious knee surgery that cost him most of last season. Throw in an aging Tony Romo coming off of a bad back offensively and you have a team that is one of the worst in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 23-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011, including 9-4 ATS on the road. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They’ve won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. I wish I wasn’t giving more than 3 points with a banged up 49er team (no Aldon Smith, no NaVorro Bowman, no Glenn Dorsey, no Anthony Davis), especially a highly public backed one, but the 49ers are the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against spread: San Francisco -4.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

This is one of a few plays that I’m really disappointed I didn’t get in earlier. The Chiefs used to be 6 point favorites and there was obvious value with Tennessee in that situation. The Chiefs are not going to be nearly as good as they were record wise last season. Everything suggests the Chiefs will decline this season. Teams that have big win improvements tend to decline by about half the win improvement total from the previous season. The Chiefs won 2 games in 2012 and 11 games in 2013, a 9 game win improvement. Obviously the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid had something to do with that, but the rest of the team is pretty much the same. History suggests they’ll decline by about 4 or 5 wins, which would put them right around the win total they had in 2011, when they went 7-9.

That’s not the only thing I’m basing my decline theory on though. The Chiefs were not as good as their record suggested last season. They played the league’s easiest schedule in terms of DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account the number of teams they faced who were starting backup quarterbacks. Now they trade out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. They also suffered an unsustainably low amount of injuries, with the fewest adjusted games lost in the NFL last season. Yes, they did lose Justin Houston for 5 ½ games which hurt, but their other key players, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Alex Smith, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Devito missed a combined 1 game between them last season, excluding the finale, in which the Chiefs rested their starters. That much injury luck is unlikely to happen again. They’re already without Dwayne Bowe for this game with a one-game suspension and Eric Berry could be limited by a lingering heel problem.

The Chiefs were also overly reliant on winning the turnover margin, with an AFC best +18 turnover margin. Winning the turnover margin consistently is hard to do, unless you have a top quarterback, and even then it’s hard. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. These things are unpredictable. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to have success the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Chiefs are unlikely to recover 58.70% of fumbles again next season, 4th best in the NFL. The tougher schedule and the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries will also play a role in this.

In addition to the Chiefs not being as good as their record last season, they also have less talent than last season, because of all of their off-season losses. They lost their 3 most talented offensive linemen, who combined for 26 starts last season. They also lost valuable depth at wide receiver, safety, and middle linebacker. They’re unlikely to get much out of their rookie class this season, as their first round pick was used with 2015 in mind and they didn’t have a 2nd round pick. In terms of pure talent level, I have them closer to the bottom of the league than the top.

I would have considered Tennessee +6 as a pick of the week because these two teams are pretty similar talent wise, but the sharps also know the Chiefs are going to decline and they bet this line all the way down to 3.5. There’s not nearly as much value here anymore. That being said, I’m going with the Titans still for a medium confidence pick. There isn’t as much wiggle room in case the Titans don’t win straight up in Kansas City, but I also feel more confident in my Chiefs decline theory knowing that the sharps seem to agree with me. Meanwhile, the public is likely all over the Chiefs as small favorites. This has all the makings of a trap bet for the public and I’m going the other way.

Tennessee Titans 20 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Packers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

I love betting the Seahawks at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 41-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 40-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.55 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-39 record away from home (27-33-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 4.05 points per game on the road. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 2 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 17-1 straight up and 13-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.83 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 8.78 points per game at home. And if there’s anything scarier than Seattle at home, it’s Seattle at home coming off of their ring ceremony. Over the last 10 instances of a defending Super Bowl champion playing week 1 on a Thursday at home, they’ve won all 10 times and gone 7-3 ATS.

The issue is a lot of this is priced into the line as the Seahawks are 6 point favorites. The Packers are a very good team, possibly better than they’ve been in the last 2 seasons, as long as they stay healthy, which they essentially are right now. In the 8 games that Aaron Rodgers played last season, the Packers moved the chains at a 77.78% rate, which would have been 3rd best in the NFL. Their defense was an issue, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.60% rate, but they should be much improved this season with guys like Clay Matthews and Casey Hayward healthy (I’m not putting much stock in the injury to BJ Raji because he sucked last season).

If they can move the chains at a 77% or so rate on the season (which they clearly have the offensive firepower to do, with Rodgers and Randall Cobb healthy and Eddie Lacy breaking out down the stretch) and their defense can be league average at around 71%, this could be one of the best teams in the league once again. I have them at 12-4 and it’s very weird betting against a team this good as 6 point underdogs. Aaron Rodgers has never been more than a 6 point underdog in his career and he’s only been a 6 point underdog once (9-0 win in New York over the Jets in 2009). In his career, he’s 7-4-1 ATS as an underdog. The Seahawks are my pick here, but I’m unfortunately starting off the season with a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: None

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