2014 Week 10 NFL Picks

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off that, teams are 43-28 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 16-8 ATS off of a loss as road favorites. On top of that, the Broncos also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to St. Louis on deck. Teams are 80-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 49-32 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 20-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Denver -7.5).

On the other hand, all of the public money is on the Broncos and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, winless teams this late in the season tend to be a solid bet. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 32-15 ATS since 1989. Teams like this tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Raiders could easily be all three. I’m going with the Broncos because I think we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with them as 11 point favorites, but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -11

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, a differential of 0.94%. However, the Rams aren’t very good either, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 75.52% for their opponents, a differential of -3.72% that ranks 26th in the NFL. This line is also at 7 for two reasons. One, the Rams are a little overrated as well. Two, the odds makers know Arizona isn’t as good as their record and doesn’t want to give sharp bettors +10. The public is all over Arizona, because they’re caught up in records, and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense.

The Rams are also in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, the Rams are coming off of an emotional win over the 49ers and might not be at 100% or have nearly the focus they would if they had lost. Teams are 48-45 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road win, as opposed to 93-50 ATS for road underdogs off of a road win. Going off that, teams are 26-44 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a straight up win as double digit underdogs. I’m taking the Rams out of principle, but I’m not confident.

Update: It was brought to my attention that the Rams are in their 3rd straight road game instead of their 2nd. This doesn’t hurt them, as teams in their 3rd or 3 road games are 60-64 ATS, but it doesn’t help them. This doesn’t change my pick because I’m still fading the public and the overrated Cardinals out of principle, but it makes me even less confident about the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing Romo last week in a pathetic showing against the Cardinals, the Cowboys still rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.71% rate, as opposed to 73.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.41%.

On the opposite side, the Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 73.26% for their opponents, a differential of -6.60%. They have covered just 9 of their last 26 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 26 games, they’ve lost 17 of them by double digits. On top of that, Dallas is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-4 ATS in London games, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

There are three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, it’s tough to judge how Romo will be coming off this kind of injury and if his supporting cast will give 100% against a bad team in another country with Romo now back. Two, I don’t really have any strong trends that suggest the Cowboys are the right side. Three, the Jaguars have been playing a lot better of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently.

Over the past 6 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.72% rate, as opposed to 68.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.09%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. The Cowboys should still beat them by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That’s better than the Lions, who move the chains at a 71.13% rate, as opposed to 68.51% for their opponents, a differential of 2.62% that ranks 10th in the NFL. And despite that, this line says these two teams are even at 3 points, which isn’t true.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in a bunch better spot this week. While the Lions have to go to 7-1 Arizona next week, the Dolphins host the Bills. Teams are 122-91 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Conversely, teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The only reason this isn’t a high confidence or pick of the week type pick is because Detroit gets Calvin Johnson back this week.

Miami Dolphins 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)

The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Even last season, when he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, he was only Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked quarterback. The Eagles’ offense didn’t miss a beat last week when Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez came in. It’s really starting to look like Foles is primarily just a product of the system and the Eagles’ supporting cast.

This isn’t to say that the Eagles won’t miss Foles and that Mark Sanchez will be exactly as good, but it could easily not be a big loss. At the same time, the Eagles have gotten Jason Kelce back from injury, will be getting Evan Mathis from injury, and have finally gotten LeSean McCoy going on the ground. The Eagles have only moved the chains at a 72.34% rate this season and I don’t expect that to get any worse over the next 6-8 weeks. If their defense can continue playing well, as they currently allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.58% rate, they shouldn’t be a worse team this week than they were a few weeks ago. They’re not as good as their 6-2 record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re a lot better than the Panthers.

The Panthers rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 77.89% for their opponents, a differential of -4.10%. However, they’re in a much better spot here this week than the Eagles. While Philadelphia has to go to Green Bay next week, Carolina just hosts Atlanta. Teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Teams are also 45-78 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs.  As long as this line is a touchdown or more, I like the Panthers a good deal.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of 1.11%. The Packers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 78.69% rate, as opposed to 77.99% for their opponents, a differential of 0.70% that ranks 15th in the NFL. They’ve been overly reliant on a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +8 turnover margin. However, the Packers have been significantly better at home, moving the chains at a 78.13% rate, as opposed to 69.39% for their opponents in 3 home games this season, a differential of 8.74%.

This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 23-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 29-4 straight up, with an absurd +469 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is 19-10 ATS off of a loss in his career and 11-2 ATS in his career against the Bears, while Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career. The Bears have an easy game against the Vikings up next and divisional road underdogs are 59-41 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. I also wish this line was smaller. It’s currently at 7.5 and it would have to be below a touchdown for me to make this a higher confidence pick, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more, and 2-12 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more off a loss. So, as weird as this sounds, I actually really like the Jets this week. As bad as they’ve been this season, everyone covers the spread every once in a while. Teams are 61-39 ATS since 1989 on an 8+ game losing streak, including 55-32 ATS as underdogs and 25-16 ATS as home underdogs. They could easily catch the Steelers off guard, as many teams do as non-divisional home underdogs against them. It doesn’t help the Steelers that their already thin defense will be without Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu this week.

This line has moved from 5.5 and 6 at opening to 4.5 and in some places 4. On one hand, I wish I got this line earlier because Jets +6 would have been such a great bet. On the other hand, that line movement suggests the sharps are on the Jets, as the public is all over the Steelers, which gives me more confidence in the Jets, even with the line moving down. The Steelers are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.23% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 3.28%. On the other hand, the Jets are 27th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.20% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -3.98%. That means this line should be about 4.5, even before you take the aforementioned trends into account. If you can still get this at anything higher than 4, the Jets are absolutely the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like them at home. I don’t think those 2 games erase their extensive recent history of home dominance. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 44-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.47 points per game.

This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 20-2 straight up and 15-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.09 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.57 points per game.

The Seahawks’ relative struggles in their last 2 home games are giving us good value here with the Seahawks as they are just 8 point favorites over the Giants. Remember, they were 7.5 point favorites over the Packers, who are much better than the Giants, earlier this season and the Seahawks won very easily. Obviously, the Seahawks haven’t been playing as well recently as they were to start the season, but they’re getting both Max Unger and Russell Okung back from injury, while Byron Maxwell is listed as questionable to return.

Unger, their best offensive lineman, has been out since week 5. Okung missed last week. Maxwell has been out since week 6. They’re getting healthier and I expect them to be playing with a little bit more of a chip on their shoulders this week as they’re kind of getting lost in the Super Bowl contenders discussion. They’re also in a good spot as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Teams are 80-52 ATS in that situation since 2008. The Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites tend to be significantly superior teams and it’s logical that significantly superior teams would be able to play really well off of a bye. The Falcons haven’t played well at all this season, but they’re still significantly better than the lowly Buccaneers. The Falcons rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.74%, while the Buccaneers rank 30th, moving the chains at a 69.74% rate, as opposed to 76.51% for their opponents, a differential of -6.78%. The Buccaneers will be even worse this week with Alterraun Verner out with injury.

The issue here is that the Falcons are only 2.5 point favorites. When you break down those aforementioned trends even more, you see that teams are 40-12 ATS off of a bye as road favorites of 3 or more and just 10-9 ATS as favorites of less than 3, including 21-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS respectively in divisional matchups. However, the logic still does hold that the Falcons would be better prepared for this game as a significantly better team on the road off a bye. The Falcons are even 3 point favorites in some places. I don’t think that trend can be completely discounted just because the Falcons aren’t 3 point favorites everywhere.

On top of that, they generally do well off a loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, going 24-13 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams on long losing streaks like the Falcons are on right now do well off a bye, as teams on 5+ game losing streaks are 22-9 ATS off a bye. The bye tends to give teams like that a chance to collect themselves and come back stronger after the bye. I like the Falcons’ bounce back chances here against a terrible Tampa Bay team. Tampa Bay has been especially bad at home over the past few years, going 13-30 ATS at home since 2009.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going 8-2 ATS off of a loss by 10 more since Harbaugh and Joe Flacco came to town in 2008. They didn’t fare well last week off of a close loss in Cincinnati week 8, but getting blown out in Pittsburgh last week could easily be the wakeup call this well-coached, veteran squad needed to get back on track.

They also return home, where they’ve fared very well since 2008. The Ravens are 44-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, at home, as opposed to 32-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.94 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also certainly helps that they’re playing a weak opponent, as the 2-6 Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

They rank 31st in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.30% rate, as opposed to 75.44% for their opponents, a differential of -7.14%. They’re also starting a 6th round rookie quarterback in Zach Mettenberger and they got destroyed at home by Houston in his first career start. On the flip side, the Ravens rank 6th, moving the chains at a 76.27% rate, as opposed to 72.32% for their opponents, a differential of 3.95%. As high as this line is at 10, I don’t think it’s high enough.

Speaking of this line being high, the Ravens are in a fantastic spot as big home favorites heading into a bye, as teams are 68-29 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye. Teams in that situation tend to be able to take care of business and then some with no distractions on the horizon. I expect the Ravens to be completely focused coming off of a big loss at home going into a bye and be able to blow out a significantly inferior Tennessee team.

Conversely, the Titans have another tough game against the Steelers on deck, which will serve as a big distractions. The early line for that game is 4.5 in favor of the Steelers on the road in Tennessee. Teams are 57-82 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, including 28-57 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. This should be a very easy Baltimore win.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: High

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