2014 Week 10 NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a 72.92% rate, as opposed to 74.01% for their opponents, a differential of -1.09%. Meanwhile, the Saints move them at an 81.61% rate (best in the NFL), as opposed to 76.64% for their opponents, a differential of 4.97%. Why are they 4-4 when they’ve played that well? Well, they have a -6 turnover margin and a -2 return touchdown margin fueled by a 35.29% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They are legitimately a few plays away from being 7-1.

They’ve also played that well despite playing 5 of 8 on the road, where they are historically significantly worse than at home. Now they have 3 straight games at home and are poised to go on a run, starting with this game. Teams are 61-45 ATS since 1989 as home favorites before being home favorites twice more in a row. At the same time, they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game. They are an auto-bet at home and they’re still significantly undervalued to boot. This is my Pick of the Week.

New Orleans Saints 34 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 78.40% rate, as opposed to 71.18% for their opponents, a differential of 7.22%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 5-3, but they have a +62 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, with those 3 wins coming by a combined 7 points. In one of their two wins by more than a touchdown, a 43-23 win over a terrible Jets team, they had a +6 turnover margin, which is not sustainable at all, as turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. At the same time, teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

The Jets actually won the chain game in that game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank just 24th in the NFL rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.24% rate, as opposed to 68.32% for their opponents, a differential of -3.08%. This line at just 1.5 in favor of Kansas City seems way too small. However, the Chiefs are in a bad spot with a game against the Seahawks on deck, a big distraction. Teams are 22-40 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Update: The Chiefs are now underdogs, which nullifies that aforementioned trend I was worried about. The Chiefs still aren’t in an ideal spot, but neither are the Bills who have to go to Miami next week. The Chiefs are a significantly better team than the Bills so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as their record or as good as they’ve been in recent years, as a result of injuries to guys like AJ Green, Kevin Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Leon Hall, and Giovani Bernard and off-season losses of guys like Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, and coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer.

Green is back now, but they are still missing a lot of very important guys. They are 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate, as opposed to 74.91% for their opponents, a differential of -2.73%. The Browns aren’t as good as their record either, but they still rank higher than the Bengals. They rank 19th, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.91%.

However, the Bengals have been a lot better at home this season, moving the chains at a 78.49% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.20%. This is nothing new for them as they have been dominant at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-1-1 at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game, going 11-3 against the spread. That being said, they’ve been overrated all season because of their record so that has nullified most of that homefield advantage. Last week, I was hesitant to pick them at home as 11.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, a game in which they won by 10. They’re still a way better home team than road team, but they aren’t an auto-bet at home anymore.

Given that, I like the Browns this week as they are in a good spot. While the Bengals have to go to New Orleans next week, the Browns host the mediocre Texans, which is going to be a much smaller distraction. Teams are 49-35 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-98 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Browns should be the right side and if this line moves to a touchdown before game time it might become a medium confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 10

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 217 27 14 23 15 3 0 81.61%
2 DEN 184 31 9 39 6 4 0 78.75%
3 GB 166 26 12 28 7 3 2 78.69%
4 KC 174 22 13 32 7 2 0 78.40%
5 IND 235 32 20 36 15 4 1 77.84%
6 PIT 208 26 15 41 9 4 0 77.23%
7 CHI 179 21 9 30 15 5 0 77.22%
8 DAL 200 24 18 31 17 2 0 76.71%
9 BAL 200 25 22 28 14 6 0 76.27%
10 NE 199 26 25 39 6 4 0 75.25%
11 SD 177 23 14 40 9 3 0 75.19%
12 SEA 159 20 18 34 6 2 1 74.58%
13 MIA 178 20 20 28 12 8 0 74.44%
14 ATL 166 22 10 35 14 6 1 74.02%
15 NYG 173 22 8 44 14 5 0 73.31%
16 CAR 185 17 19 41 12 2 0 73.19%
17 WAS 187 22 16 40 17 4 0 73.08%
18 SF 159 16 18 34 9 4 0 72.92%
19 ARZ 159 19 16 44 6 1 0 72.65%
20 PHI 184 20 16 39 21 2 0 72.34%
21 CIN 158 21 20 36 10 3 0 72.18%
22 STL 153 15 13 37 13 3 0 71.79%
23 DET 153 17 19 37 11 2 0 71.13%
24 CLE 158 19 16 45 7 6 0 70.52%
25 HOU 167 19 18 44 14 3 0 70.19%
26 TB 143 16 12 36 16 4 1 69.74%
27 NYJ 175 16 16 45 18 6 0 69.20%
28 MIN 171 15 19 50 12 4 0 68.63%
29 TEN 138 15 13 41 11 4 2 68.30%
30 JAX 162 16 15 51 19 4 0 66.67%
31 OAK 130 14 10 46 16 2 0 66.06%
32 BUF 135 17 19 47 11 3 1 65.24%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 164 15 19 43 18 3 0 68.32%
2 DET 148 13 12 45 12 4 1 68.51%
3 MIA 143 16 13 36 18 5 0 68.83%
4 PHI 163 20 14 50 11 5 0 69.58%
5 KC 150 13 17 38 5 6 0 71.18%
6 CLE 176 19 15 43 13 6 1 71.43%
7 IND 179 24 11 50 13 7 0 71.48%
8 MIN 172 22 14 48 12 3 0 71.59%
9 ARZ 163 17 13 39 16 3 0 71.71%
10 BAL 177 19 18 38 13 5 1 72.32%
11 SEA 154 17 15 37 10 2 1 72.46%
12 WAS 174 24 13 51 8 3 0 72.53%
13 DEN 175 21 14 44 9 4 1 73.13%
14 NYJ 163 28 15 52 3 0 0 73.18%
15 JAX 189 22 19 43 10 5 0 73.26%
16 DAL 163 21 11 38 14 4 0 73.31%
17 NE 199 21 18 35 18 9 0 73.33%
18 HOU 197 23 14 42 21 3 0 73.33%
19 NYG 164 22 17 35 13 2 0 73.52%
20 PIT 188 22 20 39 13 1 1 73.94%
21 SF 149 19 8 36 13 2 0 74.01%
22 CIN 190 19 20 31 13 5 1 74.91%
23 TEN 191 21 19 35 11 4 0 75.44%
24 SD 180 23 12 37 9 7 1 75.46%
25 OAK 170 21 19 33 6 4 0 75.49%
26 STL 162 20 15 32 10 2 0 75.52%
27 ATL 177 23 21 30 13 0 0 75.76%
28 CHI 166 22 21 22 12 4 0 76.11%
29 TB 190 25 22 31 12 1 0 76.51%
30 NO 167 20 15 31 9 1 1 76.64%
31 CAR 201 28 16 31 16 2 0 77.89%
32 GB 188 21 12 26 15 6 0 77.99%

 

Overall

1 KC 7.22%
2 IND 6.36%
3 DEN 5.62%
4 MIA 5.60%
5 NO 4.97%
6 BAL 3.95%
7 DAL 3.41%
8 PIT 3.28%
9 PHI 2.76%
10 DET 2.62%
11 SEA 2.13%
12 NE 1.92%
13 CHI 1.11%
14 ARZ 0.94%
15 GB 0.70%
16 WAS 0.55%
17 NYG -0.21%
18 SD -0.28%
19 CLE -0.91%
20 SF -1.09%
21 ATL -1.74%
22 CIN -2.73%
23 MIN -2.95%
24 BUF -3.08%
25 HOU -3.14%
26 STL -3.72%
27 NYJ -3.98%
28 CAR -4.70%
29 JAX -6.60%
30 TB -6.78%
31 TEN -7.14%
32 OAK -9.44%

2014 Week 9 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 6-7

Straight Up: 7-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-2

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 1-3

Upset Picks: 1-2

On the season

Against the Spread: 82-51-1 (.617)

Straight Up: 89-44-1 (.669)

Pick of the Week: 6-3

High Confidence: 6-6

Medium Confidence: 31-11

Low Confidence: 18-16-1

No Confidence: 21-15

Upset Picks: 11-10

Survivor Picks: 7-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, SEA, BAL, KC, CIN)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]