2014 Week 2 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the Texans are also going to be a bounce back team this season. Their offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21st in rate of moving the chains (including 11th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record. The fact that RG3 and the Redskin offense struggled against the Texans’ defense doesn’t necessarily mean that RG3 will never find his 2012 form again.

He could easily find it this week. The Texans don’t suck, but the Jaguars do. They started out 17-0 against the Eagles, but showed their true colors once again, eventually losing 34-17. They went 4-12 last season and were even worse than their record. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%. In their last 17 games, they’ve lost 11 times by double digits. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Redskins made it 12 times in 18 games. This line is way too low.

Washington Redskins 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Washington -6

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized, Vikings

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams team that had to turn to their 3rd string quarterback mid-game and the Patriots struggles in Miami against a capable Dolphins team, but I don’t think that should cause everyone to throw out all their pre-season evaluations.

Remember, the Patriots led 20-10 at the half and might have been able to hold on for the victory if Rob Gronkowski had been able to play more in the second half. His conditioning should be better now in his 2nd game back from that torn ACL. The Patriots are still a healthier and more talented team than last season and the Vikings still have an underwhelming roster on paper. There’s no reason this line should only be at 3 in favor of Patriots. They were 4.5 point favorites in Miami last week, while the Vikings were 3 point underdogs in St. Louis. This line would have been at least 6 last week, if not more.

Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive on everyone underestimating and discounting them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. They’re also in the better spot here with no distractions on the horizon, as they host Oakland next. Road favorites are 44-32 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Vikings have to go to New Orleans next week, which is another very tough game. They could easily be double digit underdogs there. Teams are 34-52 ATS since 2002 as home dogs before being double digit underdogs and 17-40 ATS before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be double digit favorites.

New England Patriots 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Lions, Panthers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

The Lions were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. I felt the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye They have so much talent and finished 6th in rate of moving the chains last season, but they’ve had big issues with losing close games and turning the ball over in the past 2 seasons. I expect them to get over that this season, especially with a new head coach, and I also think this is their most talented team in a very long time. After a week 1 35-14 blowout victory over the Giants, I feel even more confident in that assessment.

They should carry that into this week. Teams are 32-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win of 21+ or more. Meanwhile, the Panthers did a lot last week to quell concerns that they’d decline this season after losing their top offensive linemen and essentially their entire secondary and receiving corps this off-season. Week 1, the Panthers went into Tampa Bay and won despite not having starting quarterback Cam Newton.

However, I still like the Lions a lot here despite that for four reasons. One, it’s very possible the Buccaneers just aren’t a good team. Two, it’s also very possible that the Panthers relax a little bit this week with Cam Newton back. Three, I don’t like to change much from my pre-season predictions after 1 week and I had the Panthers missing out in the playoffs in the pre-season. Four, Cam Newton could easily be less than 100% in his first regular season game with his new supporting cast and coming back from a rib problem and an ankle problem. There’s no reason the Lions should be underdogs here. I like them a good amount.

Detroit Lions 20 Carolina Panthers 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: High

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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Their loss to the Bills last week only solidifies my opinion that they’re going to struggle this year.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. Last week, they beat up on a terrible Dallas team, winning 28-13. They’re also in a good situation here as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Arizona next week). Teams are 52-24 ATS in that situation since 2008. They should blow out the Bears here in the Levi Stadium opener on Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Packers, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and that was even though they had other significant injuries. Now not only is Rodgers healthy, but also Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, and Casey Hayward. They have the opportunity to still be a very good team (I had them at 12-4 before the season started), but this line doesn’t suggest that as they are mere 8.5 point favorites over the Jets. That seems like an overreaction to last week.

The Packers will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, which can’t hurt. Rodgers has been very good off of a loss in his career, going 18-9 ATS in such situations. The Packers also return home where they’ve been incredibly dominant over the past few seasons, as long as Rodgers has been under center. The Packers have also been incredible at home over the past few years, as long as Aaron Rodgers has been under center. Rodgers is 21-8-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 26-4 straight up, with an absurd +409 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.63 points per game. They should be able to flip the script here and blow out the Jets the way they were blown out in Seattle.

The Jets might also be a little overrated here. They looked decent against Oakland (even though they only won by 5), but that was Oakland at home. This is a different story. They went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games. They added Eric Decker this off-season and they should have better turnover and fumble luck, after recovering a league worst 30.30% of fumbles and finishing with a -13 turnover margin, but they aren’t a good team. The Packers should blow them out fairly easily here. This is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 34 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

Last week I mentioned the Ravens’ home dominance in the write up about their game against the Bengals. The Ravens weren’t able to beat the Bengals, even in Baltimore, but the Ravens are still historically very good at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. The Ravens are 41-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdog.

Here they are favorites of just 2.5 points. I thought the Ravens and Steelers were very, very comparable in terms of talent level before the start of the season and so far there’s been nothing to suggest that was an incorrect evaluation. Given that, I really like getting the Ravens here as favorites of less than a field goal. Also helping the Ravens is that they don’t have any sort of big game to look forward to week 3, while Pittsburgh has to deal with Carolina that week. The Ravens go to Cleveland next week. Teams are 114-84 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. The Ravens should be the right side here.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 9

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 1

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 SEA 25 4 2 2 1 0 0 0.852941
2 NO 30 4 2 2 2 0 0 0.85
3 DET 20 4 3 2 0 0 0 0.827586
4 DEN 24 4 1 5 0 0 0 0.823529
5 ATL 28 4 3 3 1 0 0 0.820513
6 SF 19 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.814815
7 DAL 26 2 1 2 4 0 0 0.8
8 CHI 29 2 2 4 3 0 0 0.775
9 BAL 26 2 2 4 2 1 0 0.756757
10 MIA 25 3 4 2 3 0 0 0.756757
11 MIN 18 3 2 5 0 0 0 0.75
12 ARZ 22 2 2 4 2 0 0 0.75
13 IND 24 3 1 4 2 2 0 0.75
14 CLE 23 3 2 7 0 0 0 0.742857
15 PIT 24 3 3 6 1 0 0 0.72973
16 WAS 20 1 0 5 2 1 0 0.724138
17 GB 19 2 1 4 1 1 1 0.724138
18 TEN 24 2 4 6 0 0 0 0.722222
19 PHI 24 3 2 6 3 0 0 0.710526
20 NYJ 20 2 2 5 2 0 0 0.709677
21 TB 17 2 0 5 3 0 0 0.703704
22 CAR 19 2 3 6 0 0 0 0.7
23 NYG 16 2 0 5 2 1 0 0.692308
24 HOU 16 1 1 6 1 0 0 0.68
25 SD 16 2 1 6 1 1 0 0.666667
26 NE 20 2 2 5 2 2 0 0.666667
27 BUF 15 2 3 5 1 0 0 0.653846
28 CIN 16 1 6 4 0 0 0 0.62963
29 JAX 18 2 3 8 1 1 0 0.606061
30 KC 15 1 2 5 3 1 0 0.592593
31 OAK 11 2 0 9 0 0 0 0.590909
32 STL 15 0 3 6 2 0 0 0.576923

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIN 15 0 3 6 2 0 0 0.576923
2 NYJ 11 2 0 9 0 0 0 0.590909
3 TEN 15 1 2 5 3 1 0 0.592593
4 PHI 18 2 3 8 1 1 0 0.606061
5 BAL 16 1 6 4 0 0 0 0.62963
6 CHI 15 2 3 5 1 0 0 0.653846
7 MIA 20 2 2 5 2 2 0 0.666667
8 ARZ 16 2 1 6 1 1 0 0.666667
9 WAS 16 1 1 6 1 0 0 0.68
10 DET 16 2 0 5 2 1 0 0.692308
11 TB 19 2 3 6 0 0 0 0.7
12 CAR 17 2 0 5 3 0 0 0.703704
13 OAK 20 2 2 5 2 0 0 0.709677
14 JAX 24 3 2 6 3 0 0 0.710526
15 KC 24 2 4 6 0 0 0 0.722222
16 SEA 19 2 1 4 1 1 1 0.724138
17 HOU 20 1 0 5 2 1 0 0.724138
18 CLE 24 3 3 6 1 0 0 0.72973
19 PIT 23 3 2 7 0 0 0 0.742857
20 DEN 24 3 1 4 2 2 0 0.75
21 SD 22 2 2 4 2 0 0 0.75
22 STL 18 3 2 5 0 0 0 0.75
23 NE 25 3 4 2 3 0 0 0.756757
24 CIN 26 2 2 4 2 1 0 0.756757
25 BUF 29 2 2 4 3 0 0 0.775
26 SF 26 2 1 2 4 0 0 0.8
27 DAL 19 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.814815
28 NO 28 4 3 3 1 0 0 0.820513
29 IND 24 4 1 5 0 0 0 0.823529
30 NYG 20 4 3 2 0 0 0 0.827586
31 ATL 30 4 2 2 2 0 0 0.85
32 GB 25 4 2 2 1 0 0 0.852941

Overall

1 MIN 17.31%
2 DET 13.53%
3 TEN 12.96%
4 SEA 12.88%
5 BAL 12.71%
6 CHI 12.12%
7 NYJ 11.88%
8 PHI 10.45%
9 MIA 9.01%
10 ARZ 8.33%
11 DEN 7.35%
12 WAS 4.41%
13 NO 2.95%
14 SF 1.48%
15 CLE 1.31%
16 TB 0.37%
17 CAR -0.37%
18 PIT -1.31%
19 DAL -1.48%
20 ATL -2.95%
21 HOU -4.41%
22 IND -7.35%
23 SD -8.33%
24 NE -9.01%
25 JAX -10.45%
26 OAK -11.88%
27 BUF -12.12%
28 CIN -12.71%
29 GB -12.88%
30 KC -12.96%
31 NYG -13.53%
32 STL -17.31%