2014 Week 3 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2)

The Texans are one of three 2-0 teams that I think are fraudulent, along with the Bills and the Cardinals. The Bills are 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers and then won here against the Giants. The Texans, meanwhile, have played the Redskins and the Raiders, which isn’t that impressive of a schedule. However, there’s a good chance they can continue that into week 3 and improve to 3-0 here against the Giants. I’m not that confident, but I like their chances of winning by a field goal or more.

Houston Texans 13 New York Giants 9

Pick against spread: Houston -1

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Ravens are generally not as good on the road as at home, going 42-10 at home since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.96 points per game, as opposed to 30-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 0.97 points per game. However, they’re 6-3 ATS as divisional road favorites, including 4-1 ATS against the Browns as divisional road favorites. They’re also in a good spot because this is their first road game. Teams are 39-24 ATS since 1989 when playing their first road game in week 3.  I’m not confident in the Ravens, but they are the pick.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

The Jets are 2.5 point favorites here, but the public is still all over the Bears, suggesting that most people think the Bears are going to pull the upset. Usually when the majority of people think there will be an upset, it doesn’t happen. There’s a reason why the Jets are favorites here. I don’t think they’re a very good team, but the Bears aren’t much better. The Jets went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Bears also won 8 games last season and were also one of my picks to regress.  The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. I still think they’ll be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, are significantly less than 100%. I think this line should be at 3, suggesting these two teams are even, so we’re getting a small amount of line value by fading the public. I’m not confident though.

New York Jets 19 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 168-177 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 236-339 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.26 points per game.

People are really down on the Chiefs because they’re 0-2 and lost last week in Denver, but they put up a decent fight. 0-2 teams the year after making the playoffs tend to cover the spread. I like their chances this week in Miami as 4 point underdogs. The only reason the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play is because they have to play the Patriots in Kansas City next week and the Dolphins only have to deal with the Raiders in London next week. Teams are 43-71 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. I still like the Chiefs, but not a ton.

Miami Dolphins 20 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

This game is relatively meaningless for the Cowboys as compared to next week’s game against the Saints in Dallas. Teams are 74-117 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 1989, including 20-39 ATS when both games are non-divisional. They could easily overlook the Rams. They can’t really afford to do that. The Cowboys get Orlando Scandrick back from suspension this week, but this is still one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

They were the worst defense in the NFL last season and then they lost Sean Lee, DeMarcus Ware, and Jason Hatcher, while only gaining Henry Melton, who still doesn’t look 100% coming off of an ACL tear. Austin Davis looked reasonable in Tampa Bay last week in his first career start, completing 22 of 29 for 235 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. These two teams are more even this line (1.5 points in favor of Dallas) suggests and the Cowboys are in a bad spot. I like the Rams’ chances of winning this game.

St. Louis Rams 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1)

The trends say that the Patriots should be the right side, as they have another easy game coming up in Kansas City next week, while the Raiders host the Dolphins next week. Teams are 68-44 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites the following week. However, I’m very hesitant to lay 14 points with the Patriots right now, even against the Raiders. The Patriots have won by a margin of more than 14 three times in their last 6 games, but they’ve only done so 5 times in their last 20 games.

Even in their recent blowout wins, the passing game hasn’t been that good as they’ve averaged 173 passing yards per game. Tom Brady has completed 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.82 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in his last 22 games combined, including 56.8% of his passes for an average of 5.18 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Their passing offense will get better as the season goes on as Rob Gronkowski comes closer to full health, but right now I don’t really trust them laying 14 points. I’m not confident in the Raiders at all, but they’re the pick here.

New England Patriots 24 Oakland Raiders 12

Pick against spread: Oakland +14

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks are usually at auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 42-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 41-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.75 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-40 record away from home (27-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 4.13 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 2 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 18-1 straight up and 14-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.05 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 9.08 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games.

This spread here seems like the definition of boosting the spread for the Seahawks’ homefield advantage as they are 5 point favorites here over the Broncos. Peyton Manning is rarely an underdog, with the exception of week 16 and 17 games when he often used to barely play when with the Colts, resting for the playoffs. Since 2003, he’s been an underdog 17 times in week 15 or earlier, in 142 total games. He’s 13-4 ATS as an underdog and this is actually the most he’s been an underdog of since 2002, a 23-20 win in Denver as 6.5 point underdogs.

The Broncos have definitely been preparing for this game all off-season and this is clearly their biggest regular season game. Manning is 9-4 ATS against non-divisional opponents he lost to the previous season since 2003. A lot of what happened in the Super Bowl was fluky (the Seahawks aren’t actually 35 points better than the Broncos) and I like the Broncos chances of proving that and at least keeping this within a field goal.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot here going into a bye. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 33-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. That certainly works against the Seahawks here. I hate to go against the Seahawks at home, but I’m taking the points with the Broncos in easily their biggest game of the season against a Seahawks team in a bad spot. It’s not that high of a confidence pick though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against spread: Denver +5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

With the exception of last week’s epic debacle against the Bears, the 49ers generally are good at beating up on weaker opponents. They are 24-13 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games.

They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. They beat up on a terrible Dallas team week 1 in Dallas by a score of 28-13, before last week’s game, a 28-20 home loss as 7 point favorites, but I think last week is probably the fluke rather than the new normal for this team. They’re highly unlikely to lose the turnover battle by 4 again considering the average team that puts up a -4 turnover differential in a week has an average turnover margin of about +0.1 the following week since 2008 and are 75-52 ATS in that time period.

The Cardinals are 2-0, but they fit that definition of a bad team, hence why the 49ers are favorite by a field goal here on the road. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers week 1 at home and then last week looked underwhelming in a victory over the lowly Giants. Despite their record, it’s possible that no team has lost more from last season to this season than the Cardinals.

On the offensive side of the ball, Carson Palmer is out indefinitely leaving veteran journeyman Drew Stanton to make his 6th career start this week. He completed 14 of 29 for 169 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Giants last week, and the 49ers have a significantly better defense than the Giants so the career 63.5 QB rating quarterback could really struggle. They’ve added Jared Veldheer and given Andre Ellington a bigger role on offense, but the latter is dealing with a bad foot that has him less than 100%.

Defensively is where they’ve lost the most. John Abraham, Darnell Dockett, and Daryl Washington are all out for the season, the first two with injury and the latter with suspension. Karlos Dansby is also gone and Tyrann Mathieu is still not close to 100% after playing just 5 snaps in his return from a torn ACL last week. They’ve added first round pick Deone Buchanan and free agent flier Antonio Cromartie, but this stop unit is nowhere near as talented on paper as they were last season.

I like the 49ers’ chances of proving last week was a fluke and getting a big win here in Arizona by more than a field goal. Not only was last week likely a fluke, but the 49ers almost always bounce back in a big way in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-3-1 ATS following a loss. Straight up, they are 9-2 ATS and outscore opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game. They should be the right side here once again as long as the line stays at a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Steelers are in the better spot here. The Panthers have to travel to Baltimore next week, while the Steelers just have to deal with Tampa Bay in Pittsburgh. Baltimore isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Panthers will still be underdogs, while the Steelers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. The Steelers are also road underdogs after a road loss, after losing in Baltimore last week. Teams cover in that spot at about a 65% rate historically.

However, we’re getting no line value with the Steelers as mere 3.5 point underdogs here in Carolina. This suggests that the Steelers are only a half point worse than the Panthers, which isn’t true. While the Steelers once again look like a middling football team, the Panthers have looked very impressive early in the season, winning on the road without Cam Newton week 1 (even if it was in Tampa Bay) and then winning by double digits at home against a very solid Detroit team last week in Newton’s return.

The Panthers were one of the best teams in the league last season, going 12-4 and finishing 4th in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.51%. I thought they were in for a serious decline this season after losing 4 of their top 5 defensive backs, their top two offensive linemen, and every wide receiver who caught a pass for them, while dealing with a banged up Cam Newton, but they’re one team that has exceeded my expectations to the point where I’ve changed my mind on them.

The trio of Kelvin Benjamin, Jason Avant, and Jerricho Cotchery has proven to be at least comparable to the trio of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn. Their replacement defensive backs have fit well in Sean McDermott’s scheme and their new offensive line has also held up. Last week, they were able to do it without Greg Hardy, who remains out pending the results of his domestic abuse appeal, showing their tremendous defensive line depth. They won’t be the same 12-4 team they were last season, but I could see them competing for a playoff spot and winning about 10 games. It’s a credit to GM Dave Gettleman, Head Coach Ron Rivera, and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. I’m still taking the Steelers here at +3.5 because I’d be terrified of a field goal win by the Panthers if I picked them, especially with all the trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.

The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.

The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5

Confidence: Low

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