2014 Week 5 NFL Picks

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

This is one of two games this week that I have no idea on. Unlike San Francisco/Kansas City, where I have strong arguments for each side, I don’t have a strong argument for either side here. There are no situational trends in play here. I don’t think we’re getting significant line value with either side. I’m going to take the Rams here just because I think the Eagles are overrated. Their offensive line has been a mess this season, without Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis, leading to LeSean McCoy averaging 2.74 yards per carry.

The Eagles are moving the chains at a mere 69.23% rate, as opposed to 71.63% for their opponents, a differential of -2.40%, 22nd in the NFL. The Rams aren’t good either, ranking 27th in the NFL at -5.72%. They move the chains at a 73.03%, as opposed to 78.75% for their opponents, through 3 games. However, I’m taking them on principle because I believe the Eagles are overrated. I’m also fading the public by doing that.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One, I like to fade publicly backed underdogs on principle. If the Bears are really better than the Panthers like the public thinks, why do the odds makers (who always come out on top) have them as 2.5 point underdogs? Whenever the public thinks an upset will be pulled, it usually doesn’t happen.

Two, the Panthers are actually in a good spot after back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 48-27 ATS off of two losses by a combined 45 or more points since 2008.  It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Panthers should be all three this week. Three, these two teams are at the very least even, so, as long as I’m laying less than a field goal with the Panthers at home, they’re the side I’m going with here. I’m not that confident though.

Carolina Panthers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, as opposed to 62.69% for the Bengals. They currently lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 9.59%. They move the chains at an 80.88% rate, as opposed to 71.30% for their opponents. I’m kind of concerned that they’ve lost both Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe for extended periods of time, but they didn’t seem to miss them much in last week’s home win over the Panthers, a 38-10 victory.

The Colts are actually 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 80.26% rate, as opposed to 73.23% for their opponents (a differential of 7.03%). However, most of that is because they destroyed the Jaguars and Titans over the past two weeks. Against the Jaguars, they moved the chains at an 83.78% rate, as opposed to 68.97% for their opponents. Against the Titans, they moved the chains at an 83.72% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for their opponents. They’ve had more trouble with tougher opponents though. I think the Ravens are the better team here.

The reason I’m not that confident in the Ravens is because they aren’t the same team on the road. Since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco in 2008, they are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game, as opposed to 31-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.98 points per game. However, given that we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team, the Ravens should be the right side. Also helpful for the Ravens, the Colts have a Thursday Night game against the Texans up next. Favorites are 31-55 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)

The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. On top of that, about 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season. But everyone is overreacting to 18.75% of an NFL season.

The argument is that the Cardinals also played well last season, finishing 10-6, the only team to win double digit games and miss the playoffs, but considering they’ve lost Carson Palmer, Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington, Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, and essentially lost Tyrann Mathieu (20 snaps thus far this season as he comes off a torn ACL), it’s hard to lump in last season and this season together. Bruce Arians is doing a hell of a coaching job, but this team doesn’t have the talent to maintain this level of play. Pro Football Focus has them rated 23rd in team grade offensively and 22nd in team grade defensively. I think that’s telling.

Given that, I’m going to fade the Cardinals this week. This line is pretty big at 7.5 so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Broncos, but they should still be the right side. I’m not super confident, but the fact that Peyton Manning is 12-5 ATS as a regular season home favorite in their career with the Broncos (since 2012) and the fact that Peyton Manning is 11-5 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career help support my case and solidify my choice.

Denver Broncos 24 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Raiders in Oakland next week, the Jets have to deal with the Broncos at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 90-118 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-37 ATS since 2010 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 28-69 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. Teams are also 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

I also feel like we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Chargers. This line is 6.5 and the Chargers are definitely more than 3.5 points better than the Jets, especially with no distractions on the horizon and the Jets going into arguably their toughest game of the season. Also hurting the Jets, Eric Decker might not play in this one and he’s easily their best wide receiver. The Chargers should be the right side here.

San Diego Chargers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Tennessee has been demolished in back to back weeks, losing by final scores of 33-7 and 41-17, but I have reason to think that this week will be different. For one, Jake Locker is coming back from injury. Locker isn’t great or anything, but he’s definitely better than Charlie Whitehurst who started last week and is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Whitehurst started last week. Two, the Titans will be using Bishop Sankey more this week. Sankey is averaging 5.13 yards per carry this season and could get a season high in touches after he combined for 19 touches in week 3 and week 4 after combining for 8 touches in week 1 and week 2.

Three, the Titans are actually in a good spot coming off of those blowout losses, as teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 coming off of back to back losses of 21+ or more. It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Titans should be all three this week. These two teams are roughly comparable so this line should be closer to 3. The Browns also won’t be completely focused for this one with the Steelers on deck, while the Titans have their easiest game of the season on deck with the Jaguars coming to town next week. I like the Titans to bounce back and win this game.

Tennessee Titans 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

One of the most powerful trends says that big road favorites dominate off a bye. Road favorites of 3 or more are 39-12 ATS off a bye since 2002, which is an incredibly high rate. The Seahawks should be completely focused here as 7.5 point favorites and be able to blow out an incredibly inferior opponent even on the road. The Seahawks are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the Seahawks will be alert the whole time.

In spite of both of those things, this isn’t a bigger play for the Seahawks because the Redskins are in one good spot. They were demolished on Thursday Night Football last week. It might seem counter-intuitive, but that makes it more likely they’ll cover this week as this line could be a little inflated. This line was at 6 points a week ago, which is where I wish it still was, but now it’s 7.5, moving from the key number of 6 and crossing over another key number of 7. Underdogs are 24-13 ATS off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. Not only did we get that line movement, but the Redskins have had 10 days to hear about how bad they are, which is extra motivation. I like the Seahawks still, but it’s only a medium confidence play.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 56-81 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 71-47 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 47-75 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs.

I think we’re also getting line value here as the league still hasn’t caught on to the fact that the Lions are one of the league’s elite teams. The Lions are 5th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.43%. That’s consistent with how they played last season (regardless of their record), as they finished 6th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42%. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -7.50%.

There is one reason that this isn’t a bigger play. The Bills are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. The Lions should still be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s good reasons to take each side. On one hand, the 49ers usually cover as favorites of 3 or more as they’ve always beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-14 ATS in that situation since Harbaugh took over in 2011. However, I’m not sure the Chiefs are a bad team at all, while the 49ers haven’t looked right this season because of all the players they are missing to injuries and suspension. We might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Chiefs as 6 point underdogs.

The Chiefs looked fantastic last week in a 41-14 home win over the New England Patriots. They could easily carry that momentum into this week considering how well teams do off of blowout wins on Monday Night Football. Teams are 32-14 ATS since 2002 off of a 21+ point win on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the 49ers out of principle because the Chiefs are a publicly backed underdog, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

Jacksonville was in a perfect spot to finally cover the spread last week. They were 13.5 point underdogs, so they had a lot of room to play with, as a result of the fact that they lost by 21+ points in two straight weeks. Teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more, as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. And they still didn’t cover the spread, losing 33-14. They have covered just 6 of their last 21 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 21 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. They should get blown out again here as 7 point home underdogs against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Medium

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