2014 Week 6 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

This is one of the games that I’m most indecivise on this week. Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games up next. The Steelers have a non-divisional home game against an average at best Houston team next week, while the Browns head to Jacksonville for a non-divisional game with the worst team in the NFL. Teams are 106-75 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2002.

At the same time, the Browns are projected to be 4 point road favorites in Jacksonville, which just shows how bad the Jaguars are. Teams are 74-49 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, including 46-28 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that time period. I’ve gone back and forth on this game a bunch of times this week. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Browns and fading the public underdog Steelers on principle, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland -1

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)

The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like to fade that kind of line movement, especially with the public all over the favorite Denver here, but I’m still going with the Broncos here. I’m not that confident and there really isn’t much line value with the Broncos, but they still seem like the right side. The Jets were terrible last week so some of that line movement was deserved.

They are now 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.75%, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Broncos are moving the chains at a 77.10%, as opposed to 71.85% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%, 4th in the NFL. The line seems like it’s right where it should be. The Jets are also in a bad spot as they have to go to New England in 4 days for Thursday Night Football. They might not be focused enough to even cover this spread against a dominant opponent. Teams are 40-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 28-62 ATS as underdogs before being double digit underdogs. Again I’m not confident, but the Broncos are my pick here.

Denver Broncos 30 New York Jets 20

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential at -2.18%. They move the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 76.99% for their opponents. However, the 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS this season despite the fact that they’ve been favored by 3 or more in all 5 games, the situation they traditionally dominate in.

They haven’t been the same team this season thanks to the loss of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Glenn Dorsey, and Anthony Davis to injury. Vernon Davis is expected back for this one, but they’ve still struggled by their standards this season and I don’t know if that’s going to fix everything, especially since their biggest problems are defensively. They are moving the chains at 75.34% rate, as opposed to 74.82% for their opponents, a differential of 0.52% that ranks only 16th in the NFL. I’m still going to take the 49ers, especially since home divisional underdogs are 30-56 ATS in night games since 1989, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4)

The Chargers have broken out as one of the top teams in the NFL and are a legitimate contender. Their offense has continued to be as good as it was last season. Last season, they moved the chains at a 78.26% rate, 2nd in the NFL. This season, they’re actually doing worse than that, moving the chains at a 75.82% rate, ranking 13th in the NFL. However, that’s still really good and much of the decline is because they are averaging just 2.80 yards per carry. Philip Rivers is playing like an MVP candidate, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 8.75 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Things will get even better when Ryan Mathews comes back from injury and Brendan Oliver had a strong performance last week, rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts, catching 4 passes for another 68 yards and another touchdown.

The biggest difference for this team between last year and this year though is the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.63% rate, 4th in the NFL. Free agent acquisition Brandon Flowers has been huge, having a big-time bounce back year and showing himself to once again be one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Overall, the Chargers have a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.19%, 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders are a train wreck, moving the chains at a 66.04% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -9.36% that is only better than Jacksonville. This line isn’t high enough at a touchdown, especially since the Chargers don’t have any huge distractions on the horizon. The Chargers host the Chiefs next. Teams are 42-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: San Diego -7

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)

The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road.  Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game. On the other hand, they are 31-30 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.85 points per game, a difference of about 9.5 points per game. They fell flat on the road in Indianapolis last week, losing 26-13.

That being said, they are now in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to work on better for teams. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game. Teams seem to adjust to the road in their 2nd straight road game. Road underdogs off of a road loss tend to cover at the highest rate, but teams are 32-22 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd road game of two.

The Buccaneers, conversely, are in a bad spot, coming off of a rough overtime loss in New Orleans last week. Teams are 13-21 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs. We’re also getting line value with the Ravens. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 71.92% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91% that ranks 5th in the NFL. I am concerned about their offense without Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe, especially after how poorly they played in Indianapolis last week, but I still like their chances of bouncing back here this week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. Usually wins like that are usually accompanied by big overreaction line movements so it makes sense. The line hasn’t shifted much (going from 3 to 3.5), but it’s still moved off of the key number of 3 and the Packers could still be overconfident here.

We’re getting line value with the Dolphins as well. The Packers were 9 point favorites at home for the Vikings and Christian Ponder last week. This line suggests that the Packers would be 9.5 point favorites at home for the Dolphins, even though the Dolphins are better than the Vikings with Christian Ponder. Sure the Packers blew out the Vikings, but that was in Lambeau, where they’re a lot better. Since 2009, the Packers are 36-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.98 points per game. On the other hand, they are 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game. It’s not a strong lean, but as long as the line is higher than a field goal, the Dolphins should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last week in Green Bay. They also return home, rather than playing in Lambeau, one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. On top of that, teams usually cover off a blowout Thursday Night loss as they’ve had extra time to stew over the loss and to make the necessary adjustments. Underdogs are 24-14 ATS off a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more since 1989.

However, I still like the Lions here. Part of the reason why that aforementioned trend is powerful is because usually there is a big overreaction line movement associated with that type of nationally televised loss. In this case, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did as the Lions were 4 point favorites here last week. That made a lot of sense because that would mean the Lions would be 10 point favorites at home. Considering the Vikings were 9 point underdogs in Green Bay, who lost in Detroit, that makes a lot of sense.

Now the Vikings are 1 point favorites, despite their blowout loss last week. Obviously the fact that Calvin Johnson isn’t going to play this week has something to do with that line movement, but I think that 5 points of line movement is way too much. Calvin Johnson has barely made an impact over the past two weeks with this ankle injury so they’re already essentially playing without him. They lost at home to the Bills last week, which was a huge disappointment, but they could have easily won that game if kicker Alex Henery, who is now gone, didn’t miss all 3 field goals. The previous week, they won 24-17 in New York against the Jets with Calvin Johnson making minimal impact. They could easily do a similar thing here in Minnesota. Golden Tate has done a great job in Johnson’s “absence” over the past two weeks, as the former Seahawk has caught 15 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games, showing why the Lions went out and signed him this off-season.

The Lions are also in the better spot as they will be favorites next week at home for New Orleans, while the Vikings will be underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.39% rate, as opposed to 76.80% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. It’s a powerful trend that can’t be used often because it refers to such rare cases and it’s tough to know how teams will finish, but it’s pretty clear that the Titans will not be going 6-5 to finish the season and finishing 7-9.

On the other hand, the Jaguars might be so bad that they’re the exception. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and not only that but their over 9 percentage points worse than Tennessee, as bad as they are. They move the chains at a 62.69% rate, as opposed to 78.41% for their opponents, meaning they are simultaneously one of the worst defenses and the worst offenses in the NFL and they have a differential of -15.72%. They have covered just 6 of their last 22 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 22 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. The Titans aren’t good, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they were able to pull out a double digit win here at home.

Going off of that, the Jaguars are projected to be 4 point home underdogs next week for the Browns. Not only is that the most the Browns have been favored by on the road since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, which again highlights how bad these Jaguars are, but teams tend to struggle before being big home underdogs. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Jaguars are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident in that at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They’ve also beat Miami at home in Buffalo twice over that time period.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season, including 1-5 ATS as road favorites. The Patriots are just 5-7 straight up on the road over that time period, as opposed to 11-0 straight up at home. On top of that, the Patriots have another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Sure it’s just the Jets, but it’s still a football game and a divisional game at that. Favorites generally don’t cover before Thursday Night Games, going 32-55 ATS in that spot since 2008.

On the other hand, the Patriots could easily be double digit favorites in that game and teams generally cover before being double digit favorites, which makes sense as that game is not nearly as big of a distraction as a harder game. Teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2010, including 55-38 ATS as favorites before being double digit favorites. On top of that, divisional road favorites are 42-24 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. I’m going with the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident and if this line goes below a field goal, I might switch to the Patriots. That’s how close this is and Tom Brady is 43-18 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 in his career.

New England Patriots 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

Last week I called the Cardinals a fraudulent 3-0 team. Every year it seems there’s one team that gets off to a hot start and then crashes and burns. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. It makes sense. About 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season, so people overreact to 3/16 or 1/4 an NFL season. The Cardinals didn’t have the talent level to match their record, after losing Carson Palmer, Daryl Washington, Darnell Dockett, John Abraham, and Karlos Dansby to injury, free agency, and suspension from last year’s 10-6 team. They also still don’t have Tyrann Mathieu back to full strength having played just 36 snaps all season.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got destroyed in Denver, losing by the final score of 41-20. Sure, the Broncos are a very good team, but 21 points is a big margin. As good as the Broncos are, it was still just their 2nd win by that margin or more in their last 10 games. The odds makers were pretty down on them and they still only expected them to lose by 7 or 8 points, setting the line at 7.5. It was also even more of a blowout than the final score suggested as the Cardinals lost by 21 despite winning the turnover battle by 2. If it wasn’t for those 2 plays, the final margin could have been upwards of 4 touchdowns.

The Cardinals moved the chains at a mere 45.83% rate, while the Broncos moved them at a 76.32% rate, a 30.48% differential that was not only the biggest differential of the week, but the 3rd biggest differential of the season (Washington/Jacksonville, Atlanta/Tampa Bay). On the season, they are moving the chains at a 70.94% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -3.86% that is 25th in the NFL. For comparison’s sake, Washington moves the chains at a 74.70% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of 2.15% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

Now their injury situation is getting even worse. Carson Palmer is not expected back this week and now backup Drew Stanton is also expected to miss this game, leaving 3rd stringer Logan Thomas, a 4th round rookie, to get the start. Aside from an 81 yard touchdown to a wide open Andre Ellington out of the backfield, Thomas didn’t look good at all last week, completing just 1 out of 8 passes. On top of that, Calais Campbell, arguably their best defensive player, is out for an extended period of time. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal here.

Washington Redskins 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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