2014 Week 7 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Falcons, Ravens, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.65% that is 22nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, Baltimore is playing very well. They’re a big AJ Green play away from being 5-1 right now and they’ve moved the chains better than their opponent in 5 of 6 games. The only week they struggled was in Indianapolis, who is also one of the best teams in the NFL.

The Ravens are moving the chains at a 77.89% rate, as opposed to 71.67% for their opponents, a differential of 6.22% that ranks 4th in the NFL. They should be much more than 6.5 point favorites and I’m going to take them even if that means going with the public and with significant line movement, as this line was 5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. The Ravens might have struggled in Indianapolis, but they’re unlikely to struggle for just the 2nd time this season here at home, where they’ve been very good in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era.

The Ravens are 32-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 21-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 3-8 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Making things worse for the Falcons, they head to London next. Teams are 4-10 ATS before going to London all-time. It’s a small sample space unfortunately, but it’s worth noting, especially when mentioned in conjunction with the rest of the things working against Atlanta. The reasons this isn’t a bigger play are twofold. One, Matt Ryan is 23-12 ATS off a loss in his career. Two, the Ravens have a tough game up next against Cincinnati. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. The Ravens are still a big play though, as long as the line stays under a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Atlanta Falcons 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 176-181 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.06 points per game, as opposed to 251-357 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.23 points per game.

In spite of their loss in Philadelphia last week, the Giants are historically very good on the road.  Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-35 ATS on the road, including 36-22 ATS as road underdogs, 16-8 ATS as divisional road underdogs, and 11-4 ATS as divisional road underdogs of 3.5 or more. The opposite is true of Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 5-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas/NY Giants thing. NFC East teams are just 19-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008.

Picking the Giants also gives us an opportunity to fade a significant line movement, as this line was 3.5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. I understand the things that happened last week might seem worthy of a 3 point line movement, the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants’ blowout loss, the Cowboys’ win in Seattle, but I don’t think this line should have moved this much based on one week’s results. The Cowboys could easily be overconfident as favorites off of that win last week (they’re just 3-15 ATS as favorites off a win since 2010 anyway), while the Giants will be embarrassed and want to redeem themselves. I like their chances of bouncing back.

Dallas Cowboys 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2)

The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a point differential of -97. They moved the chains at a mere 65.59% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -4.05% that ranked 25th in the NFL. This season, they are right around there, moving the chains at a 66.08% rate, as opposed to 72.47% for their opponents, a differential of -6.39% that ranks 28th.

I’m not taking the Jets here, especially on the road where they have been even worse over the past 2 seasons. Since the start of last season, the Jets are 7-5 at home, getting outscored by an average of 1.58 points per game. Comparably, they are 2-8 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 14.00 points per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have won every season home game over that time period by an average of 12.00 points per game, while going 8-3 ATS.

However, we’re not really getting any line value with the Patriots as 10 point favorites, as bad as the Jets are. The Patriots have been moving the chains at a 71.58% rate, as opposed to 70.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.77% that ranks 14th in the NFL and suggests they should be around 10 point favorites here. Sure they’ve been a lot better over the past two weeks, but how they played before that can’t be overlooked. Also working against the Patriots case is the fact that they are 8-15 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 8 or more. I’m still laying the points, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, all of which makes sense. Making matters worse, the Colts are coming off of a Thursday Night game so they’ve had extra rest and the Colts are much better at home than the Bengals are on the road. Since the start of the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era in 2012, the Colts are 13-6 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

This line is also suggesting that these two teams are even and that’s not true right now, even before you take into account the Colts’ home dominance, the Bengals’ road struggles, or the rest factor. The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 6 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average 7.64 YPA, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 26 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 79.04% rate, as opposed to 70.65% for their opponents, a differential of 8.39% that is best in the NFL by close to 2 percentage points (6.69% is the next best).

Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 21st. They are moving the chains at a 74.39% rate, as opposed to 75.69%, a differential of -1.30%. They were a lot better last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and they could still play a lot better this season, but it’s possible that the off-season losses of both coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer as well as talented defensive starter Michael Johnson are too much for them, as their defense has been the unit that’s disappointed the most. They could bounce back long-term, but I’m not betting on them on the road in Indianapolis as mere field goal underdogs when the Colts have the rest advantage. The Colts are the easy play here.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1)

The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because it’s a divisional game obviously, but the Chargers are at home and significantly favored. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a random non-conference game against the Rams on deck and they’ll be heavily favored against the Rams in Kansas City. Teams tend to struggle as favorites before being underdogs and teams tend to perform well as underdogs before being favorites, for obvious reasons.

For example, teams are 106-76 ATS divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2002. Even more powerful, teams are just 19-51 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. Combining these, teams are just 24-70 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs when their opponents will next be home favorites.

Making things even worse for the Chargers is the fact that their game against the Broncos just 4 days after this one as they go to Denver on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Football game. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Chiefs, as the Chargers are 3rd in the NFL with a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.43%, as opposed to 5.99% for the Chiefs, who are 6th.

The Chargers are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents. This line is too high even before you get into all the situational trends I mentioned above. I don’t see the Chargers being able to beat them by 6 or more in the spot they’re currently in. The Chiefs are my Pick of the Week.

Update: I’m glad I locked this in at 5.5 at the very beginning of the week. Despite the public action being on San Diego, this spread quickly dropped to 4, suggesting heavy, immediate sharp action on Kansas City. This further affirms my position. I’d still take it at 4.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 7

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 137 16 8 15 10 1 0 81.82%
2 IND 160 21 12 21 11 4 0 79.04%
3 GB 121 19 8 23 4 2 2 78.21%
4 DAL 142 17 14 19 12 0 0 77.94%
5 BAL 137 18 16 17 7 4 0 77.89%
6 CHI 138 16 9 23 10 2 0 77.78%
7 SD 126 18 12 26 2 2 0 77.42%
8 KC 106 14 7 20 6 2 0 77.42%
9 CLE 111 15 9 25 2 2 0 76.83%
10 DEN 108 17 7 28 4 0 0 76.22%
11 CAR 130 14 14 26 7 0 0 75.39%
12 CIN 108 14 17 17 6 2 0 74.39%
13 PIT 134 11 12 29 7 2 0 74.36%
14 SF 117 13 14 22 6 3 0 74.29%
15 ATL 128 18 9 26 12 4 0 74.11%
16 WAS 131 16 8 29 13 3 0 73.50%
17 NYG 131 16 7 31 11 4 0 73.50%
18 SEA 94 14 10 22 4 2 1 73.47%
19 STL 109 10 9 22 10 2 0 73.46%
20 MIA 109 12 10 19 11 7 0 72.02%
21 TB 108 13 7 25 12 3 1 71.60%
22 NE 122 14 17 28 5 4 0 71.58%
23 PHI 127 14 13 30 14 2 0 70.50%
24 ARZ 95 9 14 27 3 0 0 70.27%
25 HOU 108 12 11 29 10 2 0 69.77%
26 TEN 111 11 11 30 7 3 2 69.71%
27 DET 110 12 15 29 8 2 0 69.32%
28 OAK 81 10 4 27 10 1 0 68.42%
29 MIN 109 9 13 30 10 3 0 67.82%
30 NYJ 103 10 9 34 12 3 0 66.08%
31 JAX 104 9 9 34 12 4 0 65.70%
32 BUF 101 10 15 36 7 3 1 64.16%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 DET 101 8 9 37 9 3 1 64.88%
2 BUF 126 11 15 32 10 3 0 69.54%
3 DEN 102 12 9 30 5 3 1 70.37%
4 PHI 131 15 12 36 9 4 0 70.53%
5 IND 115 15 10 29 12 3 0 70.65%
6 NE 118 13 12 25 14 3 0 70.81%
7 SD 103 12 4 27 9 6 1 70.99%
8 DAL 102 12 9 23 10 4 0 71.25%
9 KC 96 9 13 24 3 2 0 71.43%
10 MIA 100 13 10 24 8 3 0 71.52%
11 BAL 120 9 15 24 9 3 0 71.67%
12 CHI 110 14 14 19 12 4 0 71.68%
13 WAS 116 16 11 36 4 1 0 71.74%
14 NYJ 112 17 9 37 3 0 0 72.47%
15 MIN 114 16 9 33 5 2 0 72.63%
16 NYG 122 14 12 25 12 2 0 72.73%
17 SEA 102 12 9 26 5 1 1 73.08%
18 ARZ 105 13 7 23 11 2 0 73.29%
19 SF 113 12 6 26 11 2 0 73.53%
20 HOU 136 14 9 29 14 2 0 73.53%
21 PIT 120 14 14 27 6 1 0 73.63%
22 CLE 117 13 8 25 5 4 1 75.14%
23 STL 94 13 9 17 7 2 0 75.35%
24 CIN 126 11 14 18 8 3 1 75.69%
25 ATL 132 18 16 23 9 0 0 75.76%
26 CAR 133 18 13 19 12 2 0 76.65%
27 TEN 151 17 12 26 9 4 0 76.71%
28 JAX 136 17 15 25 4 2 0 76.88%
29 OAK 109 14 11 17 5 3 0 77.36%
30 GB 137 14 8 19 13 4 0 77.44%
31 NO 108 14 10 20 2 0 1 78.71%
32 TB 149 22 16 18 10 0 0 79.53%

 

Overall

1 IND 8.39%
2 DAL 6.69%
3 SD 6.43%
4 BAL 6.22%
5 CHI 6.10%
6 KC 5.99%
7 DEN 5.85%
8 DET 4.44%
9 NO 3.11%
10 WAS 1.76%
11 CLE 1.68%
12 GB 0.78%
13 NYG 0.77%
14 NE 0.77%
15 SF 0.76%
16 PIT 0.73%
17 MIA 0.50%
18 SEA 0.39%
19 PHI -0.03%
20 CAR -1.26%
21 CIN -1.30%
22 ATL -1.65%
23 STL -1.90%
24 ARZ -3.02%
25 HOU -3.76%
26 MIN -4.81%
27 BUF -5.38%
28 NYJ -6.39%
29 TEN -7.00%
30 TB -7.94%
31 OAK -8.94%
32 JAX -11.19%

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2014 Week 6 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Against the Spread: 9-6

Straight Up: 11-3-1

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 2-2

Low Confidence: 2-1

No Confidence: 4-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

Against the Spread: 57-33-1

Straight Up: 59-31-1

Pick of the Week: 3-3

High Confidence: 3-5

Medium Confidence: 21-7

Low Confidence: 14-9-1

No Confidence: 16-9

Upset Picks: 8-7

Survivor Picks: 4-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, NO)

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