2014 Week 8 NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1)

The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the Ravens’ recent road struggles. Since the start of last season, the Bengals are 10-1-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.67 points per game, going 10-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, while the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game.

On top of that, the Bengals are in the much better spot as they have a very easy game up next when they host the Jaguars, while the Ravens next play the Steelers. Teams are 46-31 ATS since 2008 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, a situation that the Bengals fit. On top of that, teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Bengals. For one, the Ravens are in a big revenge spot as divisional road underdogs are 51-26 ATS against teams that they previously lost to as home favorites that season. Meaning, if two evenly matched divisional opponents meet and the road underdog win, the losing teams usually gets the other team back the next time they play as long as it’s that same season. Not only do they cover about 2/3rds of the time, but they also straight up win half the time, even as underdogs.

The second reason is that, at least this season, the Ravens have been significantly better than the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a 77.35% rate, as opposed to 70.53% for their opponents, a differential of 6.82% that ranks 3rd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 70.65% rate, as opposed to 75.57% for their opponents, a differential of -4.91% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Sure, it was significantly different last season, but both teams have undergone significant changes in their coaching staffs. I’m still going with the Bengals at home though. They’ve moved the chains at a 79.63% rate, as opposed to 73.79% for their opponents, at home this season, which is very good.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Saints, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 19.5 points per game, with just four being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. The Saints are also 12-3 ATS in home night games since 2006. Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home recently. Since 2009, the Packers are 37-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.19 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game.

The Packers represent a much tougher than average opponent, but this line is still too low at 1. The Packers rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but not as good as their record as they’ve been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin and a fumble recovery rate of 56.25%. They are moving the chains at a 78.77% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of 2.25%. The Saints, meanwhile, move the chains at an 80.36% rate, as opposed to 78.07% for their opponents, a differential of 2.28% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The reason they are 2-4, while the Packers are 5-2 is because they’re getting killed in the turnover battle (-8 in turnovers, -2 in return touchdowns, 18.18% fumble recovery) and because they have 3 losses by a combined 6 points.

They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential despite the fact that they’ve played 4 of 6 on the road which represent all their losses. In two home games, they’ve move the chains at an 85.00% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 13.00%. New Orleans is also getting Jimmy Graham to full strength back after he essentially missed 2 games (he went out early against Tampa Bay and barely played against Detroit).

Despite their records, these two teams are more comparable than you’d think and the Saints might actually be better. This line should be at least 3, even before you get into the Saints’ home dominance. On top of all that, Drew Brees is 20-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 15-2 ATS at home. The Packers are also public underdogs, in case you need another reason to take the Saints. I usually like to fade the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always come out on top, but I especially like fading the public when they’re on an underdog. If the Packers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the odds makers have them as favorites? I could easily see the Saints winning by at least a touchdown.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Saints have Carolina 4 days after this one on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 34-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night football. Teams are also 86-105 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs on any day of the week since 2002. However, the Saints are barely favored here and they should be able to be completely focused on this one even with that game on the horizon because they’re coming off a loss, facing a 5-2 opponent, and will feel like they need this game to save their season. I really like the Saints this week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1)

The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data points. Peyton Manning has also generally been very good in nationally televised regular seasons games, going 32-15 ATS in such games since 2003, including a 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers last weekend on Sunday Night Football. Again, the Chargers beat them here in a similar Thursday Night Game last year, but that could just be an anomaly.

However, the Chargers’ recent success against the Broncos does concern me some. I’m also concerned that this line is too high. I wish this line was under a touchdown, instead of at 7.5. Denver is playing very well this season, obviously, moving the chains at a 78.17% rate, as opposed to 70.77% for their opponents, a differential of 7.40% that ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Indianapolis. However, the Chargers are also playing very well, moving the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 72.02% for their opponents, a differential of 4.72% that ranks 6th in the NFL. This line should be closer to 5.5 than 7.5. Brandon Flowers is out for the Chargers, which really hurts them as he’s the biggest reason by far that their defense has been significantly better this season, but I still wish it was under a touchdown. I’m taking the Broncos, but I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 30 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Falcons, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London

This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.19% rate, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 66.34% rate, best in the NFL. That gives them a differential of 3.85%. On the other side of the coin, the Falcons rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 72.77% rate, as opposed to 75.54% for their opponents, a differential of -2.77%. This line should be closer to 6.5 instead of 3.5. That’s significant line value.

Detroit is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-3 ATS in London games, including 6-1 ATS in their last 7. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game. I like the Lions’ chances of winning by at least a touchdown.

Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Confidence: Medium

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3.5

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Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)

Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as compared to last week. Buffalo isn’t a good football team, but the Buccaneers are worse, hence why this line is 3 instead of 6, as it was last week. Like last week, I think we’re getting line value with the Vikings.

The Vikings aren’t very good, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.83% rate, as opposed to 72.30% for their opponents, a differential of -5.47%. However, they’re better than the Buccaneers and this line suggests they are equal, which gives up value with Minnesota. The Buccaneers rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 79.53% for their opponents, a differential of -7.94%. They don’t deserve to be favored by a field goal over anyone outside of the Oakland Raiders.

The Vikings are also in a great spot. For one, unlike last week, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 107-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 91-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 177-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 252-363 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game.

On top of that, they have the easier game next week, hosting the Redskins in Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have to go to Cleveland. Teams are 71-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs and conversely teams are 108-73 ATS in that same time period as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 95-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. I like the Vikings’ chances to get the road upset here.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 8

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 162 18 11 19 12 2 0 80.36%
2 GB 143 24 9 28 4 2 2 78.77%
3 IND 187 24 14 27 13 4 0 78.44%
4 DAL 162 21 15 23 13 0 0 78.21%
5 DEN 131 23 7 32 4 0 0 78.17%
6 KC 128 16 10 24 6 2 0 77.42%
7 BAL 160 21 18 21 10 4 0 77.35%
8 CHI 152 18 9 26 13 3 0 76.92%
9 SD 145 20 14 31 3 2 0 76.74%
10 SEA 119 17 12 26 4 2 1 75.14%
11 STL 127 13 10 25 10 2 0 74.87%
12 CAR 153 16 15 33 8 1 0 74.78%
13 PIT 152 14 15 33 8 2 0 0.741071
14 SF 139 15 16 27 7 4 0 74.04%
15 NYG 151 19 7 36 13 4 0 73.91%
16 MIA 133 15 14 21 11 7 0 73.63%
17 ATL 144 19 10 31 13 6 1 72.77%
18 WAS 147 17 12 32 15 3 0 72.57%
19 CLE 124 15 10 33 5 5 0 72.40%
20 ARZ 120 12 15 31 4 1 0 72.13%
21 NE 138 17 19 33 5 4 0 71.76%
22 TB 108 13 7 25 12 3 1 71.60%
23 CIN 116 14 17 28 6 3 0 70.65%
24 PHI 127 14 13 30 14 2 0 70.50%
25 DET 131 15 16 34 10 2 0 70.19%
26 HOU 128 14 14 32 13 2 0 69.95%
27 TEN 125 13 12 35 9 3 2 69.35%
28 NYJ 131 12 14 37 12 3 0 68.42%
29 OAK 94 11 6 33 10 1 0 67.74%
30 MIN 125 10 16 36 12 3 0 66.83%
31 JAX 124 12 11 41 15 4 0 65.70%
32 BUF 123 12 16 41 11 3 1 65.22%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 DET 126 10 12 41 11 4 1 66.34%
2 IND 123 15 10 40 12 4 0 67.65%
3 BUF 142 12 18 38 12 3 0 68.44%
4 PHI 131 15 12 36 9 4 0 70.53%
5 BAL 136 10 16 29 10 5 1 70.53%
6 DEN 124 14 11 35 6 4 1 70.77%
7 WAS 130 18 12 41 6 1 0 71.15%
8 MIA 114 15 10 27 11 4 0 71.27%
9 KC 115 11 15 29 4 2 0 71.59%
10 SD 125 14 7 31 9 6 1 72.02%
11 DAL 122 15 9 28 12 4 0 72.11%
12 ARZ 118 14 9 29 11 2 0 72.13%
13 NE 146 15 17 28 14 3 0 72.20%
14 MIN 136 18 10 38 9 2 0 72.30%
15 NYJ 128 20 11 42 3 0 0 72.55%
16 JAX 149 17 16 33 7 5 0 73.13%
17 PIT 140 16 17 30 9 1 0 0.732394
18 CHI 134 17 18 21 12 4 0 73.30%
19 HOU 154 17 12 33 15 2 0 0.733906
20 CLE 137 16 10 32 8 4 1 73.56%
21 NYG 142 18 13 29 13 2 0 73.73%
22 SEA 120 15 10 29 5 1 1 74.59%
23 TEN 167 18 16 29 11 4 0 75.51%
24 ATL 155 21 18 27 12 0 0 75.54%
25 CIN 153 14 16 24 10 3 1 75.57%
26 SF 136 18 6 30 11 2 0 75.86%
27 GB 160 16 9 26 14 5 0 76.52%
28 STL 119 16 11 21 7 2 0 76.70%
29 CAR 155 23 14 24 12 2 0 77.39%
30 OAK 134 17 12 21 6 4 0 77.84%
31 NO 129 17 11 25 4 0 1 78.07%
32 TB 149 22 16 18 10 0 0 79.53%

 

Overall

1 IND 10.79%
2 DEN 7.40%
3 BAL 6.82%
4 DAL 6.10%
5 KC 5.83%
6 SD 4.72%
7 DET 3.85%
8 CHI 3.62%
9 MIA 2.36%
10 NO 2.28%
11 GB 2.25%
12 WAS 1.41%
13 PIT 0.87%
14 SEA 0.55%
15 NYG 0.18%
16 ARZ 0.00%
17 PHI -0.03%
18 NE -0.44%
19 CLE -1.16%
20 SF -1.82%
21 STL -1.84%
22 CAR -2.61%
23 ATL -2.77%
24 BUF -3.23%
25 HOU -3.44%
26 NYJ -4.13%
27 CIN -4.91%
28 MIN -5.47%
29 TEN -6.16%
30 JAX -7.43%
31 TB -7.94%
32 OAK -10.09%

2014 Week 7 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Against the Spread: 9-6

Straight Up: 12-3

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 5-0

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 1-3

Upset Picks: 1-0

Against the Spread: 66-39-1

Straight Up: 71-34-1

Pick of the Week: 4-3

High Confidence: 4-6

Medium Confidence: 26-7

Low Confidence: 15-11-1

No Confidence: 17-12

Upset Picks: 9-7

Survivor Picks: 5-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, NO, BAL)

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