2015 NFL Free Agency

Seattle Seahawks extend RB Marshawn Lynch

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Going into the season, there was talk the Seahawks would not be bringing Lynch back in 2015, owed a non-guaranteed 7 million dollars in a contract year, with other players to lock up long-term. Instead, Lynch ended up getting a raise and an extension. This deal is worth 31 million over 3 years with 13 million guaranteed in the first year, including a 7.5 million dollar signing bonus, a raise of 5 million. Perhaps it’s their way of saying sorry for not giving him the way on the 1-yard line at the end of the Super Bowl.

More likely, it’s their reward for Lynch once again having a fantastic season. Lynch rushed for 1310 yards and 13 touchdowns on 280 carries, an average of 4.68 YPC. Over the past 4 seasons, Lynch has missed 1 game and rushed for 5357 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1181 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC and he’s been even better than his numbers suggest as he’s run behind a weak offensive line. He’s graded out 48th, 5th, 4th, and 2nd on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively and his 273 broken tackles on carries lead the NFL over that time period. He’s also the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. There’s a case to be made that he’s been the best running back in football over the past 3 seasons, despite what guys like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and LeVeon Bell have done over single seasons over the past 3 years.

The issue still remains that he’s going into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. That suggests that Lynch has about 2, maybe 3 good years left in the tank and that possibly his best days are behind him. 12 million dollars is a lot to commit to a running back for one year in today’s NFL, especially one with as much tread on his tires as Lynch has, no matter how good that running back is. I definitely understand why the Seahawks made this move, but I can’t say I love it.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs re-sign MLB Josh Mauga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Josh Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. Johnson will be back in 2015, but Mauga could still have a role for the Chiefs as the starting middle linebacker next to Johnson as James-Michael Johnson struggled even more than Mauga did last season.

If history is any indication, that could be a two-down role next to Derrick Johnson in 2015, though the Chiefs’ potential lack of safety depth might prevent them from using 3 safeties inside of 2 linebackers in sub packages like they like to do. Mauga’s new deal pays him 8 million over 3 years. It’s not an egregious overpayment or anything, especially for a cap strapped team, and it fits his likely 2015 role, but Mauga wasn’t worth too much more than the minimum, given his history and his 2014 play.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets re-sign MLB David Harris

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

David Harris is, by all reports, a nice guy, a likeable teammate, and easy to coach. He’s been a defensive captain and signal caller for the Jets defensively for years and he’s been a leader on and off the field. I feel like that gets him overpaid. Four off-seasons ago, Harris signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Jets, even though he graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league and then just 21st and 25th respectively in 2009 and 2010. The Jets kept him through the duration of that deal even though he graded out below average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 48th out of 53 eligible in 2012, and maxed out at 18th. He was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked middle linebacker in 2014.

He doesn’t get quite as much money the 2nd time around, 21.5 million over 3 years with 15 million guaranteed, but he’s also going into his age 31 season. This is still an overpay. I understand it’s a very weak middle linebacker class in free agency and the draft as well to some extent. Outside of Harris and Rolando McClain, who has a tough record off-the-field, there really isn’t much in terms of free agent middle linebackers, which makes it a player’s market. However, guaranteeing player who is a solid starter at best 15 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons isn’t the right move. Something in the neighborhood of 3-year, 15 million with 6 million guaranteed would have been more appropriate.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Carolina Panthers extend TE Greg Olsen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Panthers, Uncategorized

Olsen was originally owed 5.25 million dollars in a contract year in 2015. This deal adds on 22.5 million over 3 years to the deal, gives him a 12 million dollar signing bonus, and keeps one of the best tight ends in the game under contract at a reasonable rate into the future. Olsen is going into his age 30 season, but this deal isn’t too long-term and he’s coming off of the first 1000+ yard season of his career in 2014, one of just two tight ends in the NFL to do that last season (Rob Gronkowski is the other one). Also an adequate blocker, Olsen graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end last season, with only Jason Witten between him and Gronk.

He’s no one year wonder either as he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 1st round in 2007, including above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons. He’s not flashy, but he’s productive (3 straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards), he doesn’t have a weakness, and he’s a huge part of Carolina’s offense. He also hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2007. This was a smart move by the Panthers. My only issue is how much money they gave him up front combined with his age. It’s a bit of a stretch to say he’s going to decline significantly in a year or two, but if he does, the Panthers won’t be able to get more than half the value of this extension back.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings trade QB Matt Cassel to the Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Buffalo: Cassel is hardly a good quarterback, but he still instantly becomes the best quarterback on the Bills’ roster. They had a desperate need at the quarterback position after veteran Kyle Orton retired, leaving them with 2013 1st round bust EJ Manuel. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Kansas City, Cassel has been solid in his career. In his career, he’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 96 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions.

In the last season he saw significant action, Cassel completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, not terrible, which is really all the Bills are looking for at this point. Sure, Cassel is going into his age 33 season, coming off of a lost season with injury, and completed just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 5.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions before going down last season, but he’s still better than almost every quarterback available in free agency this off-season.

The price the Bills paid for Cassel wasn’t much, a 4.75 million dollar salary and cap number in 2015, a 2016 7th round pick, and a swap of a 2015 5th round pick for a 2015 6th round pick. It’s certainly better than the 6.25 million guaranteed the Browns gave Josh McCown, who the Bills were also interested in this off-season. It’s comparable to or better than giving this same kind of money to the likes of Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer in free agency. I don’t love the move for the Bills, but it’s kind of the move they had to make.

Grade: B

Trade for Minnesota: Minnesota comes out the winner here, though both sides should be happy with this deal. Cassel wasn’t worth 4.75 million to them given that Teddy Bridgewater, their 2014 1st round pick, broke out as their quarterback of the future in Cassel’s absence last season, completing 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. There’s a very good chance they were planning on making him a salary cap casualty so credit the Vikings for getting something for him and freeing up a good amount of cap space. The Vikings can find a backup for Bridgewater at less than half of Cassel’s salary.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers sign DE Darnell Dockett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The Cardinals cut Darnell Dockett last week, saving 6.8 million on the cap by avoiding paying him a non-guaranteed 6.8 million dollar salary. Dockett isn’t getting nearly that much with San Francisco, as he signed for 7.5 million over 2 years with just 2 million in the first year guaranteed. However, that’s still too much. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem.

He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. The 49ers have a need at the 3-4 defensive end position with Ray McDonald getting kicked off the team with off-the-field problems and Justin Smith considering retirement, going into his age 36 season, but giving Dockett starter’s money and counting on Dockett to start is a mistake. The Cardinals should feel happy that they stuck their divisional rival with a dud.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins sign DE Ricky Jean-Francois

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

In Ricky Jean-Francois’ first trip to the open market in two off-seasons ago, he was given a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal by the Colts, a very weird move considering RJF had played just 715 snaps in 4 season with the 49ers from 2009-2012, after they drafted him in the 7th round. He did flash, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he didn’t deserve that kind of deal then and it predictably didn’t end well. The Colts cut him this off-season after two seasons. He made 23 starts in 26 games with the Colts and graded out about average in both seasons, but the Colts didn’t see him as worth his salary for 2015.

His second trip to the open market went differently, as the Redskins signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed. That’s much more appropriate for him. He’ll slot in as a starter opposite Jason Hatcher at 3-4 defensive end for the Redskins and be an immediate upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins, who graded out 45th out of 47 eligible at his position in 2014. Jenkins is a free agent, while overpaid, aging reserves Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, who both struggled mightily last season, are expected to be cut.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys re-sign WR Cole Beasley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Cole Beasley is an ascending slot receiver who has seen his snaps go up in every season since he went undrafted in 2012, playing 128 snaps in 2012, 247 snaps in 2013, and 443 snaps in 2014, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2014, he caught 37 passes for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns on 48 targets (77.1%) and 308 routes run (1.36 yards per route run). The Cowboys could have kept him in the 2 million dollar range for 2015 as a restricted free agent on a 2nd round tender, but instead decided to commit to him long-term with this 4-year, 13.6 million dollar deal that will guarantee him 7 million over the first 2 seasons. It’s a gamble because he’s still relatively unproven, but it could pay off as he could have gotten a deal similar to the one Doug Baldwin got last off-season (3 years, 13 million with 8.5 million guaranteed) on the open market next off-season if he had another solid season.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills trade MLB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia Eagles for RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Eagles, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: I’m probably going against the grain with this, but I love this deal. People are wondering who will replace McCoy. Well, it’s a deep running back draft and a deep running back free agency class. It’s going to be tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2013 production, when he rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 carries (5.12 YPC) and added 52 catches for 539 yards and another two touchdowns. It’s not going to be that tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2014 production, when he rushed for 1319 yards and 5 touchdowns on 312 carries (4.23 YPC) and added just 28 catches for 155 yards.

McCoy could bounce back in 2015, but there’s evidence to suggest he won’t. He’s only graded out higher than 10th among running backs on Pro Football Focus once in 6 years in the league (2013) and he’s going into his age 27 season with 1761 touches at a position that doesn’t have a long lifespan. He’s a good, not great running back in a league where running backs rarely get the kind of money McCoy is still owed over the next 3 seasons (24.25 million).

Kiko Alonso, meanwhile, is owed just 1.7 million over the next 2 seasons on his rookie deal. Like McCoy, he had a strong 2013 that he didn’t replicate in 2014. Alonso graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, but missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL. However, I like his chances of bouncing back more than McCoy because he’s only going into his age 25 season at a position with a much longer lifespan. A torn ACL is hard to recover from, but Alonso suffered that injury back in June of 2014 and has youth on his side.

He’ll be an obvious upgrade over DeMeco Ryans, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, before missing 8 games with a torn Achilles in 2014. He and Mychal Kendricks will be a strong, young middle linebacker duo for the Eagles inside. The Eagles also will save 6.9 million on the cap by letting Ryans go. Between that and the 8.55 million they saved from trading McCoy, this move saves them about 15 million on the cap (Alonso’s cap number for the Eagles will be about 750K this season). That’s a significant amount for a team that figures to be major players in free agency. This move could allow them to add someone like Devin McCourty to their secondary and have cap room left over.

Grade: A

Trade for Bills: I don’t hate this deal for the Bills as much as I love it for the Eagles. The reason for that is that Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham both broke out as every down linebackers for the Bills in 2014 in Alonso’s absence and they could still re-sign Brandon Spikes, a solid two-down run stopper. However, you still don’t trade a younger, cheaper player for an older, more expensive player, at a position with a shorter careerspan. I would have liked to see the Bills pick up some sort of draft pick in this deal. I’m not sure McCoy would have gotten 24.25 million over 3 years on the open market if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving up that and a talented young linebacker for him. It’s not a good deal.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]