2015 NFL Free Agency

Cleveland Browns sign QB Josh McCown

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

The average annual salary on this deal isn’t terrible as it’s a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with incentives that could make it worth up to 20 million. The issue is that McCown will get 6.25 million guaranteed, including a fully guaranteed 5.25 million dollar base salary for 2015. That first year’s guaranteed base salary is more than any quarterback got on the open market last off-season as the likes of Michael Vick, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel etc all got 5 million dollars or less in guaranteed first year money last off-season.

That batch of quarterbacks includes Josh McCown, who, last off-season, parlayed a strong extended stretch as the Bears’ starting quarterback in the absence of Jay Cutler into a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Buccaneers that paid him 4.75 million guaranteed in his first year. If McCown was only worth that then, after a 2013 season in which he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception, how he is worth more now, after a disastrous 2014 season, especially since he’s now another year older, going into his age 36 season.

In 2014, McCown won just 1 of 11 starts, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Buccaneers moved the chains at a mere 63.46% rate in the 10 games McCown started and finished and it wasn’t like McCown didn’t have talent around him. The Buccaneers’ offensive supporting cast was far from perfect, but Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were one of four wide receiver duos to both have 1000+ yard seasons in 2014. The Browns don’t have anyone as good as either one of those two in their receiving corps. Overall, McCown graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible in 2014.

McCown’s 2013 was obviously better, but he’ll be two years removed from that in 2015, which is even more of a concern as he goes into his later 30s. Besides, that season was the clear outlier as, prior to that, the last season he had a quarterback rating higher than 70 was 2006. In his career, McCown completes 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 61 touchdowns, and 59 interceptions. I know the quarterback market is very weak this off-season, but that doesn’t mean that you should give a backup caliber player like McCown this kind of guaranteed money. They could have gotten someone like Colt McCoy or Jake Locker for half this price and at least they have enough youth to have upside. The Browns better hope Johnny Manziel can get it together this off-season otherwise they’re going to have a very tough time moving the ball in 2015.

Grade: D

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San Diego Chargers re-sign OT King Dunlap

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

King Dunlap, a 2008 7th round pick, started 6 games in his first 4 seasons combined, but he’s started 39 games (38 at left tackle and 1 at right tackle) over the past 3 seasons, 2012 with the Eagles and 2013 and 2014 with the Chargers. He graded out 37th in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014. The big 6-9 310 pounder took a while to put it all together, but he’s developed into an above average offensive tackle and he’s only going into his age 30 season so he has at least a couple years left at that level most likely. This 4-year, 28 million dollar deal has an average salary of 7 million dollars of 16th in the NFL, which might be a little bit of an overpayment, but this isn’t a bad contract at all, especially for a team that has as many problems on the offensive line around Dunlap as the Chargers do.

Grade: B

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Arizona Cardinals re-sign WR Larry Fitzgerald

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

This is a terrible move for the Cardinals. Yes, it lessens Fitzgerald’s cap hit for 2015, which was scheduled to be 23.6 million, but if this was the most of a pay cut that Fitzgerald was willing to take, they should have just outright cut them, a move that would have saved them about 9 million on the cap immediately and gotten him off their cap completely for 2016. This deal pays Fitzgerald 22 million dollars over the next 2 seasons, all of which will show up on their cap at some point because it’s all fully guaranteed.

That 11 million dollar annual average is 5th highest in the NFL behind Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, and Vincent Jackson. Fitzgerald is not the 5th best wide receiver in the NFL at all, not any more. From 2005-2011, Fitzgerald averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games, even though he never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years. He was fantastic then. That’s why he got an 8-year, 128.5 million dollar deal before the 2011 season.

However, 2011 was his last 1000+yard season. His 71/798/4 line in 2012 was understandable because he had supremely terrible quarterback play, but even with better quarterback play in 2013 and 2014, he only averaged 73 catches for 839 yards and 6 touchdowns in 15 games. He was Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked wide receiver in passing grade in 2013 and their 28th ranked in that category in 2014. He’s still a solid receiver, but he’s not the same player he was when he was in his prime. Things aren’t going to get much better in 2015 and 2016, the guaranteed years in this deal, as they are his age 32 and age 33 seasons. He’s not worth a fully guaranteed 2-year, 22 million dollar deal.

Grade: D

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