2015 NFL Free Agency

Denver Broncos sign TE Owen Daniels

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This is exactly where I expected Owen Daniels to go this off-season. Daniels has played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator. It almost seemed too obvious that Daniels would follow Kubiak at Denver, where Kubiak is now the head coach and where they need a pass catching tight end, as Julius Thomas was expected to leave as a free agency this off-season (he did).

This deal was a little bit more than I was expecting though (12.25 million over 3 years, though with only 4.25 million guaranteed in the first year. Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. He did have a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. However, he’s just a borderline starter with little long-term upside and should have been paid like one. This misses a little.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams re-sign TE Lance Kendricks

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round pick in 2011, but only caught 129 passes for 1388 yards and 13 touchdowns in 4 seasons with the Rams. He maxed out with 42 catches for 519 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2012, when he played 875 snaps, and largely served as a #2 tight end and blocking tight end over the past 2 seasons with Jared Cook in town. I’m a little surprised he re-signed with the Rams with Cook still in town. It’s a weak tight end market both in free agency and the draft so Kendricks had a decent chance to find starting work somewhere. I’m even more surprised by the price, as the Rams will pay him 18.5 million over the next 4 years with 10 million guaranteed. That’s a lot for a #2 tight end, especially considering Niles Paul got 6 million over 3 years with 2.25 million guaranteed from the Redskins.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints trade WR Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins for MLB Dannell Ellerbe

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Saints, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: I’m a little confused why the Saints wanted to move Kenny Stills. I understand why they wanted to move Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs. The Saints were in salary cap hell and needed to get expensive players off their books. Stills, however, was still on a rookie deal, so he wasn’t taking up much cap space. He was also a valuable young asset in their receiving corps and someone they’ll have to replace (Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks are their only even somewhat proven wide receivers right now). They could do so with the 3rd round pick they received in this trade and if they do that they’d get someone under team control cheaply for 4 years instead of 2 like Stills, but there’s no guarantee that whoever the Saints draft in the 3rd round can be any good.

On top of that, the Saints took on Dannell Ellerbe in the trade. The Dolphins were desperate to get rid of Ellerbe and his 8.425 million dollar non-guaranteed salary and I’m shocked that they found a taker through trade. The Saints won’t be paying Ellerbe 8.425 million this season, as he renegotiated his contract as part of this trade, but they’ll still be paying him 4.8 million in 2015, fully guaranteed, which is too much for him.

Ellerbe was about as bad as a free agent signing can be. Ellerbe signed a 5-year, 34.25 million dollar deal with the Dolphins two off-seasons ago and proceeded to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He moved to outside linebacker for 2014, but ended up missing all but 18 snaps with a hip injury, which actually probably helped the Dolphins, considering how bad he was in 2013 and how well Jelani Jenkins played in his absence in his first season as a starter. Ellerbe was essentially 14 million guaranteed down the toilet.

The deal didn’t make any sense for the start.  Ellerbe, a 2009 undrafted free agent, maxed out at 456 snaps in a season from 2009-2011, but he had a solid 2012 season, grading out 14th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 667 regular season snaps and then followed that up with a strong post-season, en route to a Super Bowl victory by the Ravens. That’s what got him paid, but he was a one year wonder that wasn’t worth his contract even at his best.

He remains a one-year wonder to this day, but it’s still getting him paid, even going into his age 30 season. In addition to 4.8 million guaranteed in 2015, he has non-guaranteed salaries of 5.2 million in each of the next 2 seasons, making the total value of this deal 15.2 million over 3 years. If the Saints had signed him to this deal in free agency, I probably would have given it a C or a C-. When you couple that with the swap of Stills for a 3rd round pick, this was not a good trade at all for the Saints.

Grade: D

Trade for Dolphins: This trade was all about getting lighter for the Dolphins, as they have to fit Ndamukong Suh’s contract under the cap going forward. Obviously, getting rid of Ellerbe’s contract was a big deal, as that saves them 5.65 million on the cap immediately and gets him off their cap completely by 2016. They would have cut him anyway, but credit them for somehow finding someone who saw him as a value through trade, even at a reduced salary.

Bringing in Stills to replace Mike Wallace is the bigger benefit of this deal. This move allowed them to trade Wallace to the Vikings (along with a 7th round pick) for a 5th round pick, a move that saved them an additional 5.5 million on the cap for 2015 and gets him off their cap completely by 2016. Between getting rid of Ellerbe and Wallace, they save over 11 million in cap space immediately and even more long-term.

The cost of a 3rd round pick is fairly steep, but Stills is more than worth it (especially since they picked up a 5th rounder in the Wallace trade). Kenny Stills caught 32 passes for 641 yards and 5 touchdowns as a 5th round rookie in 2013. While he graded out below average as a rookie, he became a much more complete receiver in 2014, catching 63 passes for 931 yards and 3 touchdowns and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked wide receiver.

He could immediately be a significantly cheaper upgrade on Mike Wallace, who hasn’t graded out above average since 2011. And the best part is, Stills is only going into his age 23 season, so he should only continue to get better. Even taking all the other financial stuff of it, the odds were low that the Dolphins were going to find someone with as bright of a future as Stills in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and that more than makes up for the fact that Stills is only under team control cheaply for 2 more years, while it would have been 4 for a rookie.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers sign WR Steve Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Steve Johnson had three straight thousand yard seasons from 2010-2012, despite questionable quarterback play in Buffalo. However, in the past 2 seasons he’s barely combined for 1000 yards, catching a combined 77 passes for 1032 yards and 6 touchdowns. That might lead you to think that he’s struggled in back-to-back seasons. That’s not entirely true. While he did struggle in 2013, he was simply underutilized last season in San Francisco.

Johnson was incredibly efficient in limited action last season for the 49ers. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver on just 305 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He caught 35 passes for 435 yards on 49 attempts (71.4%) and 204 routes run (2.13 yards per route run). He’s also graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus. Johnson should be better utilized in San Diego and has a chance to put up some solid overall numbers again.

Given that, I like this signing. It’s relatively cheap (10.5 million over 3 years) with likely little to no money guaranteed beyond 2015. It’s also a good fit as the Chargers needed to replace Eddie Royal slot receiver, who signed a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal with the Bears. Johnson comes cheaper than Royal would have (and Royal signed a reasonable deal) and should be able to come close to matching Royal’s 2014 production 62/778/7. On top of that, while he has plenty of experience in the slot, he’s not a pure slot receiver like Royal was so he can play outside if needed, in the likely event of a Malcom Floyd injury (given his age and history).

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots sign DE Jabaal Sheard

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Patriots, Uncategorized

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich are a solid edge rusher duo, regardless of scheme, but they had no depth behind them in 2013, which is why they played 1142 and 1114 snaps respectively, 1st and 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends in snaps played respectively. The Patriots added Akeem Ayers for depth purposes in 2014 when Chandler Jones got hurt and he did well in that role, but he left as a free agent so the Patriots had a need for another edge rusher, especially with Ninkovich going into his age 31 season and coming off the first season in which he graded out below average in 5 seasons as a starter.

Enter Jabaal Sheard. 5.5 million annually is a lot for a rotational player, but it’s a solid value for Sheard, especially considering it’s just a two-year deal and only 5.5 million is guaranteed. Sheard, a 2011 2nd round pick, has emerged as a solid edge rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and 16th ranked in 2014. However, this was a loaded free agent class for edge rushers so some above average player was going to get the short end of the stick with a deal like this. That happened to be Sheard and the Patriots are the beneficiaries, once again showing it pays to be patient in free agency.

The Patriots are widely assumed to be moving back to a 4-3 this season after the departure of Vince Wilfork. Bill Belichick is known for catering his scheme to his players and his defensive players fit a 4-3 better than a 3-4 right now. Sheard has experience playing in both a 4-3 and 3-4. He graded out below average in both of his seasons as a 4-3 defensive end, but those were also his first two seasons in the league, so he won’t necessarily struggle back in a 4-3 in New England. I believe they’ll find a creative way to use him. Perhaps they’ll move Rob Ninkovich back to the Von Miller type role as an outside linebacker in base packages who rushes the passer from the edge in sub packages. That would make Sheard a starter opposite Chandler Jones at defensive end in base packages and the bigger Jones could then rush the passer from the interior in sub packages.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears sign WR Eddie Royal

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

Eddie Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 touchdowns as a 2nd round rookie in 2008, but combined for just 138 catches for 1361 yards and 5 touchdowns from 2009-2012 combined. Royal bounced back over the past 2 seasons though, catching 47 passes for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2013 and 62 catches for 778 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014, grading out above average in both seasons.

Now he reunites with Jay Cutler, with whom he put up those big rookie numbers. That alone doesn’t ensure he’ll put up those numbers again, but it definitely helps his chance of continuing his strong play from San Diego (and, for what it’s worth, he and Cutler are reportedly great friends). He also fills a big need in Chicago following the trade of Brandon Marshall, as the Bears really only had Marquess Wilson, a talented, but unproven 2013 7th round pick, after Alshon Jeffery on the depth chart previous. Royal is pretty much a pure slot receiver, which should assure that Wilson gets a chance as the starter opposite Jeffery, but he’ll help this receiving corps. At 15 million over 3 years with 10 million guaranteed, it’s a solid value.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns sign DE Randy Starks

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

After being quite for most of the off-season, the Browns decided to add two 30+ year old free agents this off-season. Starks’ deal isn’t as (2 years, 8 million) as Tramon Williams’ deal, but there’s a reason for that. While Williams has yet to show any real signs of decline going into his age 32 season, Starks has. He graded out below average on 544 snaps last season, the first time he had graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ history, since 2007.

Starks could bounce back in 2015, but, going into his age 32 season, it’s more likely that his best days are behind him. That’s why the Dolphins cut him, to save 5 million in cash and cap space. The Browns get him slightly cheaper than that, there’s no guaranteed money beyond 2015, and he’ll provide valuable depth as a 3-4 defensive end behind Desmond Bryant, John Hughes. It’s not a bad move, but it’s not a move I love either.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans sign WR Cecil Shorts

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Cecil Shorts, a 2011 4th round pick, once looked like a very promising young receiver. After a rookie year where he didn’t see the field much (179 total snaps and 2 catches), Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012. He was even better than those numbers suggested, as he did that despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL, and he did that despite playing with the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at quarterback.

However, injuries prevented him from taking that next step. He missed 6 games with injury in 2013 and 2014 combined and averaged 60 catches for 667 yards and 2 touchdowns per season. He’s never played a 16 game season in his career, playing 50 out of a possible 64 games in his career and being limited in many others. He’s talented and his numbers undoubtedly would have been better if he played the first 4 years of his career with even a competent quarterback, but durability is a big concern.

That being said, I like this deal because it doesn’t pay him very much. Shorts will make just 6 million over the next 2 seasons if this deal goes to its conclusion and only the 2.5 million dollar signing bonus is guaranteed. Shorts fills a big need at wide receiver too, after the Texans cut Andre Johnson. His addition doesn’t mean they’re done adding at wide receiver because #3 receiver Damaris Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 107th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season. I still expect them to draft a receiver early. However, Shorts will provide a nice stopgap as rookie wide receivers often take a year or two to adjust to the NFL (last year’s class notwithstanding).

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans sign DT Vince Wilfork

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

The Patriots release Vince Wilfork earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. Wilfork graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, including 6th against the run, which is his specialty. He was released because he simply wasn’t worth his 8.5 million dollar salary, going into his age 34 season. The Texans are paying him significantly less than that, as Wilfork will make 5 million in 2015. It’s also a relatively low risk deal, as there isn’t any guaranteed money beyond 2015 (he can make 4 million in 2016 in the 2nd year of this 2-year, 9 million dollar deal).

I also like the fit in Houston. This is where I expected him to end up since the Patriots released him. The Texans are building a mini-New England west in Houston (minus, obviously, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Head Coach Bill O’Brien was with New England for 5 years, including 2011 as offensive coordinator. The two quarterbacks competing for their starting job in 2015 (Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett) are both former Brady backups.

On the defensive side of things, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was the Patriots’ defensive coordinator for 4 years, including Wilfork’s rookie year in 2004. Linebackers coach Mike Vrabel is a former teammate of Wilfork’s. Wilfork also fills a big need at nose tackle between JJ Watt and Jared Crick, as 2014 3rd round pick Louis Nix missed his entire rookie year with injury and hasn’t been healthy since his junior year at Notre Dame in 2012. Wilfork can also play 3-4 defensive end, but his run stopping abilities are best utilized on the nose in base packages. This is a solid move.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns sign CB Tramon Williams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Given that we’re already going into the 2nd week of free agency, I did not expect Tramon Williams to get 7 million dollars annually. That doesn’t necessarily mean this is a bad deal. Williams is going into his age 32 season, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period.

I also like the fit in Cleveland. The Browns drafted Justin Gilbert in the first round last year, but he was a massive disappointment on and off the field in his first year in the league, grading out below average on just 373 snaps and getting suspended for the final game of the season for a violation of team rules. Meanwhile, fellow rookie K’Waun Williams played well on 341 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked cornerback. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better as Williams allowed just 4.91 yards per attempt into his coverage last season. However, it’s hard to trust him going forward given that he was undrafted a year ago and, best case scenario, he still only projects as a valuable slot cornerback.

Williams may be aging, but he’s still playing well and gives them good insurance outside opposite Joe Haden for at least a year. 7 million annually is a lot for an aging cornerback, but there probably isn’t much, if any money guaranteed beyond 2015 and the Browns have a fair amount of cap space to work with. Giving it to a proven player like Williams makes a lot more sense than giving it to unproven veterans like Jacksonville did (Jermey Parnell, Dan Skuta, and Davon House) and hoping that they found diamonds in the rough that the league let fall through the cracks. I said before free agency started that something around 3 years, 17 million, with 7 million guaranteed would be appropriate for him and this isn’t too far off.

Grade: B+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub[