2015 NFL Picks

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals won 11 games last season, while the Saints won 7, but I think the Saints were actually the better team last year, as they ranked 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Arizona ranked 17th. The Saints were just kept down by the usual fluky things that common fans put too much stock into that tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year or week-to-week basis, turnover margin (-13), return touchdown margin (-4), fumble recovery rate (37.84%), and record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-5). The Cardinals, meanwhile, were boosted by the same things, as they had a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, a +4 return touchdown margin, and a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Saints will be better than the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals will be healthier this season. Even though they were pretty middle of the pack last season in terms of adjusted games lost, injuries still had a major impact on their season, and they will be better for having a healthier Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, Tyrann Mathieu, and Patrick Peterson (Peterson didn’t miss a game, but struggled because of undiagnosed diabetes). Palmer and Ellington remain injury risks and they don’t get any added help in the receiving corps or the defensive front 7; in fact, they lost nose tackle Dan Williams and defensive end Tommy Kelly this off-season, but it’s not all bad news for the Cardinals going into the season.

It’s certainly not all good news for the Saints either though, as the lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills this off-season, leaving them very thin in the receiving corps. They’ll be better on the offense line and on the ground, but their league worst defense doesn’t seem to be in much better shape, especially after they had to cut top defensive player Junior Galette for off-the-field problems. They’re also coming into this one banged up, with Jairus Byrd, Keenan Lewis, and CJ Spiller, all key players, expected to miss this game. The Cardinals will be without free agent acquisition Mike Iupati in this one, but they’re still in better shape injury wise. At the very least, going into this game, these two teams are even, but the Cardinals are still favored by less than a field goal at home. That gives us some value with them.

There’s also value with the Cardinals’ homefield advantage, while the Saints have struggled on the road in recent years. The Cardinals are 29-12 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007, while the Saints are 17-26 ATS on the road since 2010. Getting the Cardinals as less than a field goal favorites at home against a banged up Saints team is a good value and one of the few sides I’d put money on this week.

Arizona Cardinals 26 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

I have these two teams about even coming into the season. San Diego has better quarterback play, but Detroit has a better supporting cast. I have both teams snagging a wild card berth, San Diego with 10 wins in the AFC and Detroit with 9 wins in the NFC. San Diego’s has been right around in the playoff mix over the past 2 seasons and I think this is their best team of the past 3 years. The defense will be better than it was 2 years ago thanks to the addition of Brandon Flowers and a now healthy Jason Verrett at cornerback.

Their offense probably won’t be as good as they were 2 years ago, but they’re more talented and healthier than they were last year. They had the most offensive adjusted games lost in the league last year and they also added the likes of running back Melvin Gordon, offensive tackle Joseph Barksdale, and guard Orlando Franklin this off-season. The running game and the offensive line were major offensive weaknesses last season and both should be much better this year, while the passing offense remains a serious weapon. Their front 7 is still a major weakness and prevents them from being a serious contender, but this is still a very solid football team.

As for Detroit, they were actually better in 2013 when they won 7 games than they were in 2014 when they won 11 games. The Lions underachieved in terms of wins and losses in both 2012 and 2013, going 11-21. However, that was largely as a result of a 6-14 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, a -25 turnover margin, and a -10 return touchdown margin. Those things tend to be inconsistent from year-to-year and, in 2014, everything swung the other way with the Lions. They went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had a +7 turnover margin, and had a +1 return touchdown margin. As a result, they went 11-5, but ranked 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, after going 7-9 and ranking 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013.

This year, they should have both Calvin Johnson and Stephen Tulloch back healthy for the whole year, while Matt Stafford could have a bounce back year. The offense should be better, but the defense is unlikely to be, even with Tulloch healthy, because of off-season losses on the defensive line and aging players in the secondary. Even with these two teams being even, I’m going to take the Chargers because the Lions are limping into the season and expected to be without talented linebacker DeAndre Levy and talented guard Larry Warford in this one. The Chargers won’t have Antonio Gates either, but I think the Lions’ losses will hurt them way more. The line often doesn’t take into account injuries to serious non-skill position players because casual fans don’t always pay attention, so we’re getting value with a Chargers team that should be at least -5 here at home. They’re -3 and even -2.5 in some places, so they’re the pick here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

I hate to start the regular season off with a no confidence pick, but I think that’s where I’m going here. I think Pittsburgh is overrated, after having the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season, including the fewest on offense. Their offense won’t be as good as it was last season, when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, especially early in the season as they are already without stud running back LeVeon Bell for 2 games with suspension, promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant for 4 games with suspension, and Pro-Bowl caliber center Maurkice Pouncey for at least 2 months with a broken leg. Meanwhile, on defense, things should be bad once again.

However, I don’t love the Patriots in this game or anything. They have their own issues and also won’t be the same time this season. Tom Brady’s suspension for DeflateGate was thrown out in federal court, but Brady is still going into his age 38 season and their secondary remains a huge issue, following the loss of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington this off-season. They also have their own key absences as wide receiver Brandon LaFell and center Bryan Stork will both miss at least a month with injury, while LeGarrette Blount is suspended for this game, leaving the Patriots’ thin on talent around Brady. I’d pick them if I had to and it’s worth noting that over the last 11 instances of a defending Super Bowl champion playing week 1 on a Thursday at home, they’ve won all 11 times and gone 8-3 ATS, but I’m not confident with them as touchdown favorites.

New England Patriots 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: None