2015 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

This line is way too high at 6. The Vikings are 8-5, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 because of a tougher schedule, including two losses by 17 or more, and they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bears are only 5-8, but they rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, as 5 of their losses have come by 6 or fewer, relevant, considering this line is at 6. In fact, excluding the two games Jay Cutler missed with injury, the Bears’ biggest loss came by 8, week 1 against the Packers.

In the 11 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 7th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their 13th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. Outside linebacker Pernell McPhee is also expected back, after missing last week.

The Vikings get defensive tackle Linval Joseph back from injury this week, which is significant, but they’re still in a worse injury situation than they have been for most of the year, as outside linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith, two of their best defensive players, remain out. They’re less talented than their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. The Bears, I think, are the better of these two teams right now and yet we’re getting 6 points with them on the road.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot, as divisional home favorites with winning percentages of 50%-67% are 65-95 ATS in weeks 15-17. It’s a weird one, but it does make sense that teams competing for a playoff spot would choke against divisional opponents late in the year. The Vikings are in a good spot too though, as they host the Giants next week, while the Bears go to Tampa Bay. Favorites are 86-63 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2014. I still like the Bears’ chances of keeping this one close a good amount though.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)

The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop the division, but next week’s game is even more important because a win isn’t just a win for them, it’s also a loss for the Eagles and it wins the Redskins the tiebreaker between them and the Eagles, because they’ll own the season series. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites (the Bills are favored by 2 in Washington this week) before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

However, the Bills do not deserve to be 2 point road favorites here in Washington. This line doesn’t make any sense. These teams rank 19th (Washington) and 20th (Buffalo) in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re comparably talented, and the Bills are more banged up, missing tight end Charles Clay, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, while the Redskins are relatively healthy. The Redskins should be favored by 3 points, if not 3.5, here at home and yet they’re underdogs. That’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they’re my pick here and if this line moves up to a field goal, I’d consider bumping this pick up to a higher confidence bracket.

Update: The line has moved up to 3. I’m moving this up to medium. There’s no reason a banged up Bills team should be favored by a touchdown in Washington.

Washington Redskins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though they were definitely helped by Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert going down with injury), beat Oakland, and blew out the Colts (45-10) and Browns (30-9).

Prior to Roethlisberger going down, they lost in New England (another close loss to a tough opponent), blew out the 49ers (43-18) and beat the Rams. In the 9 games Roethlisberger has played, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 75.83% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he missed. When he’s healthy, this is one of the better offenses in the NFL and their defense is better than it was last season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and are even more talented than that suggests.

I’d go as far as to argue they’re a top-5 team (remember, they were leading the Bengals in Cincinnati even before Dalton and Eifert went down), but this line is out of control. The Steelers, favored by 4.5 last week in the early line, are now favored by a whole touchdown. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. The Broncos are a good team as well, ranking 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, so we’re getting line value with them.

The Broncos did lose at home to the Raiders last week and I feel like a lot of the line movement was because of that loss, but the Broncos held the Raiders to negative yardage in the first half and 8 first downs in the whole game (as opposed to 10 punts) and won the rate of moving the chains differential 57.12% to 47.64%. The Broncos lost by a field goal because they turned it over twice (while the Raiders didn’t) and fumbled in their own end zone (for a safety). They’ll be fine going forward.

They’re also healthier this week. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan will return from a 1 game absence and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is in his 2nd game back, after missing 5 games. The Broncos have a great defense, one capable of slowing down the Steelers’ offense more than arguably any other team because they have great cornerbacks who can match up with the Steelers’ talented wide receivers. I’m not too confident in the Broncos, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +7

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7)

The Panthers are 13-0, but don’t expect them to take their foot off their gas, at least not this week and, if their rhetoric is to be believed, not at any point. This week, they can clinch a first round bye with a win and the #1 seed with a win and an Arizona loss. They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but that shouldn’t be the end of the world. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 18th.

The Giants are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have 5 losses by 4 points or fewer, and have a +18 point differential, despite a 6-7 record. However, their turnover margin on the season is +10 and there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. The Panthers are also arguably the toughest opponent they’ve faced all season, so this line is too low at 4.

The Panthers are also in a great spot. While the Giants have to turn around and play in Minnesota next week, another tough game, the Panthers go to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who they just clobbered last week and against whom they’re projected to be 6.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

On top of that, teams are 46-31 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point road favorites. There’s an argument to be made that the Panthers should be favored by 6 or more here and favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012. The Panthers don’t fit that trend, but the logic applies. Superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. The Panthers should win this by at least a touchdown and continue their undefeated season.

Carolina Panthers 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-8) at San Diego Chargers (3-10)

The Chargers are just 3-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-7 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -7 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -7.5 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.1 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 13 games and could easily be 6-7 or 7-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team. Miami, meanwhile, ranks all the way down at 30th, worse than their 5-8 record.

That doesn’t mean I’m taking the Chargers as 2 point home favorites though. I’ve been picking the Chargers against the spread pretty religiously in recent weeks, but I’ve learned my lesson about taking them at home, where they are 1-6 ATS this season. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season.

I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is. The Chargers are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and one of those non-covers was a 5 point loss early in the season as 3 point underdogs against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but it’s really tough to be confident in them in San Diego.

The Chargers are also in a terrible spot. Not only do they have to play again in 4 days in Oakland (favorites are 47-71 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but they will be underdogs in that game, while the Dolphins host the Colts on normal rest, a game in which they’re expected to be favored. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Chargers are better than the Dolphins, so I’d need at least a field goal to even think about putting money on the Dolphins, but they’re my pick here.

Update: I’m flipping on this one. This is probably the Chargers’ last home game in San Diego, so the fans might actually show up. It’s still a no confidence pick though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -2.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 54-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.77 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too well documented, to the point where it gets priced into the line. After going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), the Seahawks are just 8-7 ATS at home since.

This line is really high at 15, but I don’t think it’s too high. If anything, it might be too low, so we’re not really paying too much of a premium for their homefield advantage this time. The Seahawks rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and are great at home, while the Browns rank 28th in that metric. The Seahawks are also hot right now, winners of 6 of their last 7 games, including 4 straight, after a 4-5 start in which they lost to Green Bay, Carolina, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Arizona, all by 10 or fewer points.

The Seahawks are so well run that they always seem to get hot right around this time. They are 25-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season since 2011, the start of the Pete Carroll era. Losing running back Thomas Rawls for the season last week hurts, but the Browns also lost one of their top offensive linemen, left guard Joel Bitonio, for the season a few weeks back, which also hurts. Rookie Cameron Erving has been horrible in his absence.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot. They host the Rams next week, against whom they’re favored by 14 points in the early line, which definitely is not an upcoming distraction. Favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. On the flip side, the Browns have to go to Kansas City, where the early line has them as 11.5 point underdogs. As a result, it might be tough for them to be focused enough to keep it close against a drastically superior team, at home, that doesn’t have an upcoming distraction.

Flipping that aforementioned trend, teams are 42-67 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 26-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. Going even further, favorites of 10+ are 21-7 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 10+ again, when their opponent will next be 10+ point underdogs again. This line is high, but I have no problem laying all these points. This one won’t be close.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Cleveland Browns 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)

The public is all over the Packers this week, as 3.5 point favorites in Oakland. That’s not a surprise. Betting that the Packers will beat the Raiders by 4 or more points must seem like free money to a lot of people. I’m going the other way though. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, because the public always loses money in the long run, and in this one, it definitely makes sense. The Packers rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 12th. That suggests this line should be around even. Instead, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Raiders, which is huge, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less.

The Raiders are also in a way better spot. While the Packers go to Arizona next week, for arguably the toughest game of their season, the Raiders host the Chargers, which is arguably their easiest game of the season. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, including 11-23 ATS over that time period as road favorites. The Packers could definitely overlook the Raiders this week with such a tough game on deck, while the Raiders are highly unlikely to overlook the Packers. I like the Raiders to win outright, so I’ll take the 3.5 points in a heartbeat for my Pick of the Week.

Oakland Raiders 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Oakland+3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-9) at New York Jets (8-5)

The Jets are favored by 4 points here in Dallas, but I think that’s too low. The Jets are sneakily one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential and, now with center Nick Mangold and cornerback Darrelle Revis back from their respective absences, they’re playing arguably their best football of the season. They’ll be a threat in the playoffs if they make it in as a wild card (Pittsburgh and Kansas City are also 8-5, are also playing well, and have arguably easier schedules) and they’re certainly going to be tough for the Cowboys this week.

The Cowboys rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and have unsurprisingly moved the chains at a noticeably worse rate with Tony Romo out of the lineup. In those 4 starts, they moved the chains at a 72.80% rate, as opposed to 67.29% in their other 9 games. They’re also missing middle linebacker Rolando McClain with a concussion, which is a big loss for their defense. That being said, the Jets are in a tough spot, having to turn around and host the Patriots next week, in the biggest home game of the season.

This could be a look-ahead spot and, understandably, teams are 50-67 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 2002, and 29-49 ATS since 1989 as 3+ point road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs. I would have liked the Jets more if this line had stayed at 3, like it was on the early line last week, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The public is still all over the Jets, despite the movement. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run. I could do both by taking the Cowboys, but the Jets are too good, so they are the pick, though for a no confidence play.

New York Jets 16 Dallas Cowboys 10

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -4

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night here, but they are not the superior team, ranking 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. Defensive end Robert Quinn, safety TJ McDonald, and outside linebacker Alec Ogletree are all out for the season right now, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 6th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also arguably the worst offense I’ve seen in years. The Buccaneers are not a great team, but they’re significantly more talented than the Rams and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Rams shouldn’t be favored here.

The Rams are only favored by a point and a half, so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Buccaneers, but the Buccaneers are also in a way better spot. While they get to host the Bears next week, a game in which they’ll be favored, the Rams have to go to Seattle and face a surging Seahawks team, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. Underdogs are 115-77 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2010.

Not only are the Rams underdogs next week, but they’ll probably be double digit underdogs in arguably the toughest game of their season. That’s really going to make it hard to focus this week. Teams are understandably 89-146 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 18-31 ATS as favorites. Combining all this, teams are just 19-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. On top of that, the Rams are coming off of a win as home underdogs, a spot teams are 44-72 ATS in since 2012. This is Pick of the Week material if the line climbs to a field goal. I like the Buccaneers a good deal either way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 St. Louis Rams 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

I’m a little confused why this is an even line. I think the Eagles should be favored by at least a field goal. These two teams are very even in rate of moving the chains differential (Buffalo is 20th and Philadelphia is 21st) and, while the Eagles are arguably healthier than they’ve been all season, the Bills are missing two defensive starters, linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s tempting to put money on the Eagles, but they have a tough upcoming home game against the Arizona Cardinals. They should be home underdogs of around 4 points. Teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. The Eagles are the pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia PK

Confidence: Low

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