2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

The Cowboys won the NFC East with 12 wins last year, but I think they’ll have a tougher time in 2015. Defensively, they were pretty weak in 2014, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They get Sean Lee back from injury, but lose Henry Melton, Justin Durant, and Sterling Moore, key part-time contributors, to free agency and also lose Orlando Scandrick to a torn ACL and Rolando McClain to a 4-game suspension. They signed Greg Hardy, but he too is facing a 4-game suspension and, without him or McClain, the Cowboys’ defense figures to really struggle to start the season.

They were much better offensively, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains, but they also had no injuries, ranking 2nd in adjusted games lost and they lost DeMarco Murray to free agency this off-season, leaving them with arguably the worst running backs in the NFL. They haven’t suffered any injuries yet, but most teams are relatively healthy right now so it won’t make as much of a difference that the Cowboys are completely healthy offensively as it would later in the season, like it did last year.

The Giants are one of the few teams in the league that is already dealing with serious injury problems. Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul, William Beatty, and Jon Beason are already out for this game and likely a few other games, but they also had the most injuries in the league last year en route to ranking 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. They should be better than that this year even if they continue to have some injury problems thanks to the return of guys like Prince Amukamara, Robert Ayers, Odell Beckham, Rashad Jennings and Geoff Schwartz, all of whom missed serious time with injury last season, to health. They have easily the best defense between these two teams and should be able to put enough points on Dallas’ offense to keep this one closer than the line.

That line is way too high at 6 (6.5 in some places) and not just for talent reasons. The Cowboys haven’t been a good home team in recent years, going 20-30 ATS at home since 2009, including 14-27 ATS as home favorites and 5-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. The Giants, meanwhile, are 57-38 ATS on the road since 2004 (the start Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 37-24 ATS as road underdogs and 16-9 ATS as divisional road underdogs. The Giants also tend to be better earlier in the season, going 47-34 in the first 8 weeks of the season, including 25-16 ATS on the road in the first 8 weeks of the season. This is my 2nd favorite play of the week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated. Usually teams do about 6 points better at home than on the road, so, for example, when Green Bay is -7 in Chicago this week, that means they’d be -13 at home. People don’t understand that and jump on the 7 (the same thing is happening with Seattle -4 in St. Louis).

However, I’m going with the public on this one. I think the Dolphins are way better than most people realize and should have no problem beating the hapless Redskins by 4, if not a touchdown here to start the season. The Dolphins were arguably the best non-playoff team last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, and they should be even better this season. Now they’ve remade their receiving corps, gotten healthier on the offensive line, and added Ndamukong Suh on the defense. I have them winning the AFC East in a close fight over the Patriots and it’s not inconceivable they could be a top-5 team.

The Redskins are more talented this season too, adding Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrence Knighton, but they have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They’ve bungled the Robert Griffin situation so much that they’re now starting backup caliber quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.45 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in his career. The Dolphins should defeat them pretty easily. Go with the public on this one. They’re right, but for the wrong reason.

Miami Dolphins 27 Washington Redskins 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

This line is way too high at a touchdown and yet the public money keeps coming in on the Packers. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here. The Bears are better than people think (more on that later) and the Packers have not been the same on the road in recent years. While they are 25-20, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.13 points per game, at home, they are 37-7 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 12.13 points per game. Even using the standard 3 points for home field advantage, the Packers should be 13 point home favorites over the Packers according to this line. The Packers could very well cover a 13 point line at home over the Bears because of how good they are at home, but I wouldn’t bet it and I’m certainly not betting them as 7 point road favorites when the public is all over them.

In fact, I’m going the opposite way for a decent sized play. Jay Cutler should bounce back from the worst season of his career, the additions Eddie Royal will help make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall, while the addition of Pernell McPhee more than makes up for the loss of Stephen Paea and Tim Jennings defensively. They also should have significantly fewer injuries than they did in 2014, when they were one of the most injury prone teams in the NFL. Importantly, guys like Matt Slauson and LaMarr Houston will be back, after missing large chunks of last season. Neither one has a history of injuries so both should bounce back to their original form, which is consistently above average. I don’t have them as a playoff team or anything, but they were better than their 5-11 record last season (24th in rate of moving the chains differential) and I think they’re better this season than last season. 7 or 8 wins certainly wouldn’t be surprising from them this season and they should be able to keep it close here against a Green Bay team that is vulnerable on the road.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals won 11 games last season, while the Saints won 7, but I think the Saints were actually the better team last year, as they ranked 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Arizona ranked 17th. The Saints were just kept down by the usual fluky things that common fans put too much stock into that tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year or week-to-week basis, turnover margin (-13), return touchdown margin (-4), fumble recovery rate (37.84%), and record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-5). The Cardinals, meanwhile, were boosted by the same things, as they had a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, a +4 return touchdown margin, and a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Saints will be better than the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals will be healthier this season. Even though they were pretty middle of the pack last season in terms of adjusted games lost, injuries still had a major impact on their season, and they will be better for having a healthier Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, Tyrann Mathieu, and Patrick Peterson (Peterson didn’t miss a game, but struggled because of undiagnosed diabetes). Palmer and Ellington remain injury risks and they don’t get any added help in the receiving corps or the defensive front 7; in fact, they lost nose tackle Dan Williams and defensive end Tommy Kelly this off-season, but it’s not all bad news for the Cardinals going into the season.

It’s certainly not all good news for the Saints either though, as the lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills this off-season, leaving them very thin in the receiving corps. They’ll be better on the offense line and on the ground, but their league worst defense doesn’t seem to be in much better shape, especially after they had to cut top defensive player Junior Galette for off-the-field problems. They’re also coming into this one banged up, with Jairus Byrd, Keenan Lewis, and CJ Spiller, all key players, expected to miss this game. The Cardinals will be without free agent acquisition Mike Iupati in this one, but they’re still in better shape injury wise. At the very least, going into this game, these two teams are even, but the Cardinals are still favored by less than a field goal at home. That gives us some value with them.

There’s also value with the Cardinals’ homefield advantage, while the Saints have struggled on the road in recent years. The Cardinals are 29-12 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007, while the Saints are 17-26 ATS on the road since 2010. Getting the Cardinals as less than a field goal favorites at home against a banged up Saints team is a good value and one of the few sides I’d put money on this week.

Arizona Cardinals 26 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

I have these two teams about even coming into the season. San Diego has better quarterback play, but Detroit has a better supporting cast. I have both teams snagging a wild card berth, San Diego with 10 wins in the AFC and Detroit with 9 wins in the NFC. San Diego’s has been right around in the playoff mix over the past 2 seasons and I think this is their best team of the past 3 years. The defense will be better than it was 2 years ago thanks to the addition of Brandon Flowers and a now healthy Jason Verrett at cornerback.

Their offense probably won’t be as good as they were 2 years ago, but they’re more talented and healthier than they were last year. They had the most offensive adjusted games lost in the league last year and they also added the likes of running back Melvin Gordon, offensive tackle Joseph Barksdale, and guard Orlando Franklin this off-season. The running game and the offensive line were major offensive weaknesses last season and both should be much better this year, while the passing offense remains a serious weapon. Their front 7 is still a major weakness and prevents them from being a serious contender, but this is still a very solid football team.

As for Detroit, they were actually better in 2013 when they won 7 games than they were in 2014 when they won 11 games. The Lions underachieved in terms of wins and losses in both 2012 and 2013, going 11-21. However, that was largely as a result of a 6-14 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, a -25 turnover margin, and a -10 return touchdown margin. Those things tend to be inconsistent from year-to-year and, in 2014, everything swung the other way with the Lions. They went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had a +7 turnover margin, and had a +1 return touchdown margin. As a result, they went 11-5, but ranked 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, after going 7-9 and ranking 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013.

This year, they should have both Calvin Johnson and Stephen Tulloch back healthy for the whole year, while Matt Stafford could have a bounce back year. The offense should be better, but the defense is unlikely to be, even with Tulloch healthy, because of off-season losses on the defensive line and aging players in the secondary. Even with these two teams being even, I’m going to take the Chargers because the Lions are limping into the season and expected to be without talented linebacker DeAndre Levy and talented guard Larry Warford in this one. The Chargers won’t have Antonio Gates either, but I think the Lions’ losses will hurt them way more. The line often doesn’t take into account injuries to serious non-skill position players because casual fans don’t always pay attention, so we’re getting value with a Chargers team that should be at least -5 here at home. They’re -3 and even -2.5 in some places, so they’re the pick here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

I hate to start the regular season off with a no confidence pick, but I think that’s where I’m going here. I think Pittsburgh is overrated, after having the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season, including the fewest on offense. Their offense won’t be as good as it was last season, when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, especially early in the season as they are already without stud running back LeVeon Bell for 2 games with suspension, promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant for 4 games with suspension, and Pro-Bowl caliber center Maurkice Pouncey for at least 2 months with a broken leg. Meanwhile, on defense, things should be bad once again.

However, I don’t love the Patriots in this game or anything. They have their own issues and also won’t be the same time this season. Tom Brady’s suspension for DeflateGate was thrown out in federal court, but Brady is still going into his age 38 season and their secondary remains a huge issue, following the loss of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington this off-season. They also have their own key absences as wide receiver Brandon LaFell and center Bryan Stork will both miss at least a month with injury, while LeGarrette Blount is suspended for this game, leaving the Patriots’ thin on talent around Brady. I’d pick them if I had to and it’s worth noting that over the last 11 instances of a defending Super Bowl champion playing week 1 on a Thursday at home, they’ve won all 11 times and gone 8-3 ATS, but I’m not confident with them as touchdown favorites.

New England Patriots 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: None