2015 Week 11 NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. The first is that they’re just not the same team anymore. Back-to-back defending NFC Champions, Seattle is just 4-5 this season and ranks just 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks largely to a remade offense that is not moving the chains well. They’ve had a tough schedule, losing in Green Bay and Cincinnati and at home to Arizona and Carolina, but the toughest team they’ve beaten is Dallas and, ordinarily, the Seahawks would have been able to win at least a couple of those aforementioned tough games, especially at home. Because of the fact that they’re struggling by their standards this season, they’ve been overrated by the odds makers and the public all year, which has led to them failing to cover at home this season (1-3 ATS).

The other reason why the Seahawks haven’t covered at a high rate at home over the past year and a half is because the odds makers have been pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance expensively into the line. It’s not a secret anymore. Even last year, they were just 5-4 ATS at home and they played well last season overall, better than this year. That being said, I don’t think this line is high enough. I think we can buy a little low on Seattle this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rate of moving the chains differential and the Seahawks should be favored by at least two touchdowns over them in Seattle, especially considering the fact that the 49ers are in a bad spot with a home clash against the Cardinals on deck.

San Francisco is expected to be home underdogs of 8 points in that one, according to the early line. Teams are 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 2012, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. On top of that, teams are 41-64 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012, as inferior teams with an upcoming distraction tend to get blown out by a superior team. That’s what I think will happen here. The line is big, but I’m confident enough to put money down on them. The 49ers are still awful and the Seahawks still deserve more than 3 points for homefield advantage.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team that just lost its starting quarterback for a month. The Jaguars also are favored and have a better record than their opponent this week, at home against the 2-7 Titans. This is just their 4th game since the start of the 2012 season in which they’ve been favored (1-2 ATS) and their 2nd game over that time period in which they’ve had a better record than their opponent. Not only are they field goal favorites, after a 2 point line movement between this week and last week, significant considering close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal, the Jaguars also have the backing of the public, at least to some extent. This is unprecedented for this team in recent memory.

The Jaguars have definitely been better over the past few weeks than they have been in recent years. In their past 6 games, they have a rate of moving the chains differential of-2.88%, which would rank 24th in the NFL on the season, significantly better than their overall rank on the season of 29th (-5.48%). What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. They got all of those players back, except Linder who is out for the season. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, though they lost Marks for the season last week, which hurts.

The Titans have had some pretty key injuries this season, including, most importantly, a two game absence by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, in which they scored a combined 13 points. In their other 7 games, they move the chains at a 72.32% rate. It hurts that top receiver Kendall Wright is out, but they should have success moving the chains against a weak Jacksonville defense. The Titans are also missing starting cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty. The defense has struggled without them this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.36% rate on the season, and very rarely have both been off the field at the same time. Still, they’re the better team and I like getting field goal protection. There’s not enough here for me to be too confident though.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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