2015 Week 4 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league on paper going into the season, but they’ve started 3-0. What’s gone differently? Well, the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t just been great, it’s been record breaking, as Jones has caught 34 passes (most in the first 3 games of the season in NFL history) for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns. The offensive line and running game have also performed better than I expected, but, other than that, not much.

They still don’t have a good 2nd option in the passing game. They haven’t exactly needed one yet, but Jones probably won’t catch the 181 passes for he’s on pace for (which would beat the current single season record by 38) so lack of a 2nd option is still somewhat of a concern. The defense, meanwhile, has still been awful, aside from top cornerback Desmond Trufant. The Falcons are 3-0, but they could have easily lost against both Philadelphia and the Giants and then got the Cowboys when they were down, missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, along with a bunch of guys at defensive end. Their awful defense still allowed the depleted Cowboys’ offense to move the ball up and down the field with ease for most of the game.

However, the Falcons could still easily move to 5-0 without breaking a sweat or really playing that well, hosting the Texans this week and then the Redskins next week. Facing the NFC East, the AFC South, and playing in the week NFC South, the Falcons are going to end up having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season. Division rival Carolina, who has also had a very easy schedule, is also 3-0 without being very talented. The Falcons are in a great spot here with another easy game on deck. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as the better team usually takes care of business with no upcoming distractions. The Texans, meanwhile, have a tough game on deck as they host the Indianapolis Colts in a few days on Thursday Night Football.

I still don’t love taking an average at best Atlanta team as 6.5 point favorites that much. The Texans aren’t very good either, but this line is still probably too high, especially since it’s moved from 3.5 to 6.5 in a week. That feels like an overreaction to Atlanta being 3-0, though I do think the line was too low to begin with. Texans are also in a good spot, as week 4 underdogs who just won their first game of the season week 3 are 32-10 ATS since 1989. The Texans also could be getting both Duane Brown and Arian Foster back from injury. It’s unclear how much either will play or how effective either will be in their first game back, but it’s definitely a benefit to have arguably your two best offensive players back on the field. I’m ultimately taking the Texans and fading the public, who is heavy on the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

The Chargers are 1-2, but their losses both came on the road against Cincinnati and Minnesota, a pair of solid teams. They still rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, decent considering they’ve had a tougher schedule than most teams. They finished last season 13th and I thought they’d be even better than that this season, a goal that is certainly still in reach as the schedule gets easier. A borderline playoff team in 2013 and 2014, the Chargers’ secondary is significantly better than it was in 2013 thanks to the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett, while their offense should be significantly healthier than it was in 2014, when they led the league in adjusted games lost to injury.

The Chargers schedule does get easier this week as a mediocre at best Browns team comes to town. The Browns have a talented defense and a strong offensive line, but next to no offensive skill position players and a bunch of guys who are underperforming defensively. Their defense has the talent to turn it around and could do so this week, but they’re still an easier matchup for San Diego than anyone else they’ve played this season.

The Chargers’ offensive line is banged up as they’ll likely be missing 3 starters, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, and center Chris Watt with injury, while right guard DJ Fluker is still working back from an ankle sprain, but they’re back at home now and also get both Flowers and Verrett back from injury. Flowers missed last week’s game in Minnesota, while Verrett was knocked out after 20 snaps with a foot problem. Both should start and play well this week, cancelling out some of their injuries on the offensive line. Despite their record, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least the 7 points they’re favored by here.

They’re also in a much better spot here than the Browns. While the Browns have another tough game on deck, a trip to Baltimore to play the division rival Ravens, against whom they are expected to be 8.5 point underdogs, the Chargers get to stay home and take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, a game in which they are expected to be 6.5 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, and, conversely, teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again.

Combining those two trends, 6+ point favorites are 34-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. The Chargers are the significantly better team and should take care of business without any upcoming distractions against a Browns team that has a big upcoming distraction. The Chargers’ offensive line injury situation scared me off of making this my Pick of the Week, but I’d still put money on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: San Diego -7

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The 49ers have lost their last 2 games by margins of 25 (43-18) and 40 (47-7) respectively and now they face Green Bay, one of seven 3-0 teams remaining and arguably the best team in the NFL. The Packers should be able to win by double digits and cover this 9.5 point spread with ease right? Well, the public seems to think so, going heavy on the Packers this week, but, as is often the case, I’m going the other way. I love to fade heavy public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the wrong run and doing so makes sense here.

For one thing, the 49ers’ two big losses were both on the road, but now they return home, where they looked very good week 1 in a 20-3 win over a solid Minnesota team. That was only one game, but their huge losses in Pittsburgh and Arizona were only two games and I feel like people probably just ignore their strong week 1 performance at home in favor of focusing on their two weak performances on the road. The 49ers aren’t a very good team, but they’re better than they’ve been the last two weeks.

Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ anyway, going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On top of that, teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35+. That’s because teams tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed off of awful showings like that. I can’t tell you for certain that the Packers will overlook them a little bit or that the 49ers will play harder trying to avenge two awful losses, but it does make sense that both sides would do that and I do think the 49ers are undervalued here as 9.5 point underdogs. This line was just 6.5 a week ago in the early line and a 3 point shift across the key number of 7 is a significant shift. Not only do I love fading the public, but I especially love fading the public when doing so also means I’m fading a huge line movement. Huge line movements like that from week-to-week are usually brought about by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Packers, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. While they are 39-7, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.04 points per game, at home, they are just 26-20 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 1.28 points per game. They barely covered as 7 point favorites in Chicago earlier this year in their only other road game this season, winning by just 8, after trailing for a large portion of the game against a Bears team that is comparable to this San Francisco team. The Packers are also now more banged up than they were in that game week 1. They’re still missing wide receiver Jordy Nelson, but now they’re also missing right tackle Bryan Bulaga and likely both safety Morgan Burnett and Nelson’s replacement Davante Adams with injuries.

The Packers have had great performances at home over the past 2 weeks, but they’re far being from that same powerhouse on the road and they could easily find themselves in another battle on the road with an inferior team, this time one that is fighting for their pride and also essentially fighting for their season. It’s also worth mentioning that the 49ers have beaten the Packers in 4 straight contests. This is far from the same San Francisco team, but Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers is still around and he’s never been able to figure out Colin Kaepernick’s dual threat abilities.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because Green Bay has another easy game on deck, hosting the Rams, against whom they are expected to be 9 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as they have no upcoming distractions. Meanwhile, the 49ers play the Giants on the road next week and are expected to be 7 point underdogs in that one. Teams are just 70-95 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again. However, the Giants aren’t very good either and I really don’t think the 49ers will overlook the Packers just because they’re facing the Giants next week. A solid showing by the 49ers here this week could also easily drop that line closer to 4 or 5, which is where it should be. I’d still put money on San Francisco this week.

Green Bay Packers 24 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)

The Chiefs are only 1-2, but they’ve had the misfortune of playing both the 3-0 Broncos and the 3-0 Packers. They could have easily beaten the Broncos and, while they lost in Green Bay last week, doing so is not that uncommon. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for the Chiefs as they have to go to Cincinnati this week and play another 3-0 team, the Bengals. However, I like the Chiefs’ chances much better this week than I did last week, for a number of reasons. The most obvious reason is that, while the Bengals have exceeded expectations through 3 games, going into Cincinnati is not nearly as hard as going into Green Bay and facing Aaron Rodgers. However, the Chiefs are also in a great spot.

While the Chiefs have one of their easiest, if not their easiest game of the season next week, hosting the Bears, against whom they are listed as 12 point favorites in the early line, the Bengals have one of their hardest and their most important games, as they host the Seattle Seahawks. Given that the Bengals are expected to be home underdogs next week, this is a great spot for the Chiefs. Road underdogs are 67-33 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs since 1989, including 20-7 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more points.

It also really helps the Chiefs that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-83 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-57 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-203 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.35 points per game, as opposed to 287-397 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.98 points per game.

This is my Pick of the Week, but I do have to admit that I’m usually more confident in my Pick of the Weeks. There just wasn’t an obvious line this week. The Chiefs are mere 4.5 point underdogs here. That’s sort of good news because it suggests that the odds makers might be trying to keep the line low to avoid big bets from sharps (and the public is barely on Cincinnati even still), but it doesn’t give me quite as much breathing room as I was expecting. Still it’s such a good spot for Kansas City and I think the effect of Kansas City having cornerback Sean Smith back from suspension and Cincinnati not having safety George Iloka with injury can’t be overlooked. I’m pretty confident I have the right side here.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick Against the Spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Ravens are 0-3 but none of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. Their loss in Oakland was bad, but Oakland doesn’t look quite as bad as they usually do, so that road loss doesn’t look so bad anymore, and they came close to beating both Denver and Cincinnati, who are among the best teams in the league. I had the Ravens as one of the better teams in the AFC going into the season and I still think they have playoff caliber talent, even with the likes of Terrell Suggs, Breshad Perriman, and Eugene Monroe out with injury. They have a weak receiving corps and haven’t been able to get a consistent running game going, but they have a strong offensive line, a solid defense, and a solid quarterback.

They also get a gift here as they are playing the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss at least a month with a knee injury. That greatly increases the chances that the Ravens will avoid 0-4. Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL and had been playing especially well through the first 3 weeks of the season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback thus far.

Instead, it’ll be Michael Vick this week, as the Steelers go from one of the best starting quarterbacks in the league to one of the worst. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate. Vick is also 4-17 ATS since 2012, which is ridiculously awful, and he won’t get better, going into his age 35 season now. The line only adjusted 6 points for Roethlisberger’s injury. That’s not nearly enough.

Vick does have a much better offensive supporting cast in Pittsburgh than he did with the Jets. He’ll be able to lean on LeVeon Bell as both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield, he has a solid offensive line in front of him, and he has arguably the best wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown. However, Roethlisberger isn’t their only major absence from what was one of the least injured offenses in the league last season, as they are also missing wide receiver Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey.

On top of that, the Steelers’ defense is a big problem. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed last season and rank 19th through 3 games this season, despite a strong showing last week against the Rams’ hapless offense. They’ll also be missing linebacker Ryan Shazier for the second straight game and he’s one of their few defensive players who has played well this season. The Ravens have injury issues, but the Steelers are in a way worse spot than them injury wise.

Perhaps the Ravens will finally be able to establish their running game this week. They finished last season 7th in yards per attempt, but rank just 28th right now. The Ravens are also in a much better spot, with only a home game against Cleveland on deck, while Pittsburgh has to go to San Diego next week, a potential looming distraction that the Ravens don’t have. Teams are 78-54 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 60-82 ATS over that time period.

With all that in mind, I really like the Ravens as mere 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have historically not done as well on the road as they have at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by 10.08 points at home, but just 0.97 points on the road, and the public is on them pretty heavily, so it’s not a massive play, but I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal, if not more, and finally get into the win column.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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2015 Week 3 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 3

Straight Up: 11-5

Against the Spread: 6-10

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 2-1

Medium Confidence: 0-4

Low Confidence: 3-2

No Confidence: 1-2

Upset Picks: 2-3

2015

Straight Up: 31-17

Against the Spread: 24-23-1

Pick of the Week: 1-2

High Confidence: 4-1

Medium Confidence: 6-6

Low Confidence: 6-8

No Confidence: 7-6-1

Upset Picks: 6-5

Since 2013

Straight Up: 381-199-2 (65.7%)

Against the Spread: 322-246-14 (56.7%)

Pick of the Week: 20-15-2 (57.1%)

High Confidence: 38-22-1 (63.3%)

Medium Confidence: 95-63 (60.1%)

Low Confidence: 81-68-5 (54.4%)

No Confidence: 88-78-6 (53.0%)

Upset Picks: 51-60 (45.9%)

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