2015 Week 5 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Buccaneers are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-19 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Buccaneers are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 36-60 ATS over that aforementioned time period. Perhaps it’s that they get caught looking forward. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league and are already 3 games back of two teams for the division lead (one of who just destroyed them in Tampa Bay) so they might have spent a little bit too much time planning their bye week vacation this week, instead of 100% focusing on their upcoming game.

The Buccaneers have also been awful at home in recent years, again, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Since 2009, they are 14-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.36 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 15-34 ATS at home over that time period and have already gotten destroyed at home by the Titans and Panthers by 28 and 14 points respectively this season. They also haven’t won at home since week 14 of 2013. For whatever reason, the Buccaneers don’t seem to have any real homefield advantage. As small home favorites before a bye, I don’t expect that to change this week.

The Buccaneers are also just awful in general, as I mentioned earlier. After finishing last season 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Buccaneers are dead last right now. The Buccaneers thought they improved themselves this off-season, adding guys like Jameis Winston, Henry Melton, and Bruce Carter, but Winston has struggled mightily as a rookie, Carter has already lost his starting job, and injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, as they are missing cornerback Johnthan Banks, center Evan Smith, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and possibly left guard Logan Mankins with injuries for this one. Meanwhile, top defensive player Gerald McCoy is at less than 100% with a shoulder problem.

The Jaguars aren’t very good either, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’ve played better than Tampa Bay and they’re getting healthier in a hurry after being plagued with injuries to start the season. Left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and safety John Cyprien all returned last week, after missing week 2 and week 3 with injury, while tight end Julius Thomas and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks are expected to make their season debuts this week. It’s not all good on the injury front, as right guard Brandon Linder, their best offensive lineman in 2015, was placed on injured reserve this week, while middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is on the doubtful side of questionable, after not practicing all week, but they’re still the better team here, while this line suggests they’re even. That’s, of course, before you even take into account the Buccaneers’ recent home struggles and the fact that they’re small home favorites before a bye.

The Jaguars are also in a good spot, as road underdogs in their 3rd of 3 road games, off of back-to-back losses. Teams are 20-14 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 19-9 ATS off of back-to-back losses as road underdogs. It’s a small sample size, but road underdogs in their 2nd of 2 road games off of a road loss are 96-58 ATS since 2008, so it makes sense. I like the Jaguars’ chances to win straight up here and I’m pretty confident in them as 3 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

How good has the Patriots’ offense been this season? Well, only two teams have more offensive touchdowns than they do (Cincinnati and Atlanta) and that’s despite the fact that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and 30 teams have played more games than them. They’re moving the chains at a ridiculous 86.44% rate. No other team is moving the chains at a rate better than 79.56%. On top of that, the 119 points they’ve scored through 3 games is the most they’ve ever scored in the first 3 games of the season in franchise history, as good as their offense has been for the past decade plus.

Tom Brady has seemingly rolled back the clock once again, in his age 38 season, and having a healthy Rob Gronkowski, something they didn’t have to start last season, has been a huge deal. After struggling in the first 4 games of the season in 2014, Gronk had an 11 game stretch in which he caught 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns, before sitting out a meaningless week 17 game for precautionary reasons. The Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate in those 11 games (and went 10-1), as opposed to 65.47% in their other 5 games (2-3). This year, he has 16 catches for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 games (on pace for 85 catches for 1643 yards and 21 touchdowns) and is Pro Football Focus’ 1st ranked tight end by a wide margin even though most of the league has played one more game than him.

He’s caught 310 passes for 4539 yards and 53 touchdowns in his last 60 games and he averages 2.43 yards per route run in his 5 year career. In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.4% of his passes for an average of 7.86 YPA, 123 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant drop off in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. He’s the biggest reason why the Patriots are even better offensively this season than last season, even with Brady aging and guys like wide receiver Brandon LaFell, center Bryan Stork, and left guard Ryan Wendell missing the first 3 games of the season.

LaFell and Stork remain out for this one (and for the foreseeable future), but Wendell will return after missing the start of the season with a mysterious illness. Wendell is versatile enough to play all 3 interior line spots, so it’s unclear where he’ll play, but he should be an upgrade, though they definitely haven’t had bad interior line play this season. The Patriots are coming out of the bye in very good shape and have a very good chance to move the ball with ease and drop a lot of points once again this week. They haven’t had the toughest schedule of defenses to start their season, as Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have among the worst defenses in the league, but they did also play very well offensively on the road against a good Buffalo defense. Besides, the Cowboys don’t have a very good defense either, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

The Cowboys should be better defensively this week because they get both defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension, but they still have a lot of problems defensively and should have a lot of trouble stopping the Patriots’ offense. The Cowboys also have issues offensively, as an offense that was one of the best, but also one of the healthiest, in the league last season, is without quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant with injury, after losing running back DeMarco Murray in free agency. In the past 2 weeks without Romo and Bryant, they’ve moved the chains pretty well, as backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has surprised a lot of people and their offensive line has continued playing well, but they were also facing Atlanta and New Orleans, who have among the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots have problems defensively as well, especially in the secondary, but they are the toughest defense the Cowboys have faced since Weeden became the starter.

On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, the Patriots are coming off of a bye and big road favorites tend to do very well off of a bye, as 3+ point favorites are 40-13 ATS off of a bye since 2002. As you can imagine, the Patriots have been in this spot quite a few times over that time period and are 4-1 ATS. The Patriots are also in another good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Indianapolis. The early line has them favored by 5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites.

That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s more the latter than the former. The Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. This line is really high at 9.5, but I have no problem laying the points because I think this is going to be a blowout. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because there’s so much public money on New England.

New England Patriots 37 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-0)

The Packers’ home dominance in recent years is well documented. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 29-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 37-4 straight up, with an absurd +589 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.37 points per game. Even though this is well documented, I still don’t think this line fully takes their home dominance into account, as they are mere 9 point favorites here over a vastly inferior Rams team. It’s either that or the odds makers are overrating the Rams.

I think it could be a little bit of both. The Rams’ won as 6.5 point underdogs in Arizona last week, but they didn’t play as well as that would suggest, as they lost the first down battle 26 to 13. The Rams moved the chains at a mere 66.67% rate, while the Cardinals, though they ended up losing by 2, moved them at a 71.05% rate. The only reason the Rams were able to win is because they won the turnover battle by 3 and it’s very tough to do that every week. Over the past 25 or so years, teams that win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

The Rams will have to find another way to keep this one close, especially since Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interceptions at home in 580 attempts, and I don’t think they’ll be able to. On the season, they rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 6th. I know it’s only been 4 games, but that’s definitely consistent with what we saw out of these two teams last season, when the Rams finished the season 22nd and the Packers finished 6th. If the Packers are beating the average team by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem winning by that amount, if not more here against the Rams.

The Packers are also getting a key player back from injury for this one, as right tackle Bryan Bulaga is set to return from a knee injury that’s kept him out since week 1. Safety Morgan Burnett, who has only played once this season (week 2), and wide receiver Davante Adams, who also missed last week, will remain out, but getting Bulaga back is more important. The Packers have been able to replace Adams and Burnett pretty well with Micah Hyde and James Jones respectively, but replacement right tackle Don Barclay was horrendous in place of Bulaga, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked offensive tackle thus far this season. Bulaga, an above average right tackle, will be a significant upgrade and a big boost for an offensive line that has been the Packers’ only offensive problem area this season.

On the other side, the Rams have managed to suffer very few injuries during the season, but will be without linebacker Alec Ogletree for an extended period of time after he got hurt against Arizona. Todd Gurley being healthy definitely cancels that out and he ran well last week in his first game as the feature back, totaling 161 yards on 21 touches. However, it’s important to remember that Gurley, while he has tremendous upside, is a rookie coming off of a serious injury and to not get too far ahead of ourselves with him.

In addition to being the vastly superior team and having an amazing homefield advantage, the Packers are also in a great spot, with only a home game against San Diego on deck. They are expected to be 9 point favorites in that one as well and teams are 107-65 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 6 or more before being favorites of 6 or more again. The Rams don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. Typically, I hate making huge wagers on huge favorites, but, even at 9, this line is way too low. The Packers should win this with ease and they are my Pick of the Week (and Survivor Pick).

Green Bay Packers 31 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

Andrew Luck missed the first game of his career last week, a late scratch with a right shoulder injury. The injury was reportedly not severe, so many thought the Colts were just holding him out ahead of a short week on the road here in Houston on Thursday Night Football, but he’s inactive once again. It still doesn’t sound like it’s a serious injury for Luck and it sounds like that the Colts are just holding him out on a short week ahead of arguably the biggest game of the Colts’ season next week at home for New England (more on how that’s relevant to this game later), but no one outside of the organization has seen him practice since the injury so who knows.

Luck is not the Colts’ only major injury. Top defensive players cornerback Vontae Davis, safety Mike Adams, and defensive end Henry Anderson are all active, but none of the three practiced this week. On top of that, linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner are also out, while replacement quarterback Matt Hasselbeck didn’t practice at all this week on a short week and was in the hospital as recently as Tuesday with an illness. Hasselbeck was decent against Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Texans have a better defense and Hasselbeck has to face them at less than 100%, on the road, on a short week. Luck to the now 40-year-old Hasselbeck was already one of the biggest starter to backup quarterback downgrades in the NFL so the Colts could have a very tough time moving the ball through the air tonight.

The Texans, meanwhile, are getting healthier. While marginal receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington will miss this game, leaving them very thin at receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins, but both left tackle Duane Brown and running back Arian Foster, two much more important offensive players, are both in their 2nd game back and should both play better this week. The Texans also don’t really have any injuries after Shorts and Washington.

Even if Luck were healthy, I would have taken the Texans (though obviously not as 5 point favorites) for a number of reasons. The Colts still have a weak supporting cast, no matter who the quarterback is. Their offensive line, running game, and defense are all subpar. Even before you take injury situations into account, these two teams have also played comparably to each other this season, despite pre-season expectations, as the Colts rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Texans rank 15th.

The Colts, at full strength, are probably still the more talented team, but they’re not at full strength and they’re not the same team they were in 2013 and 2014, when they were head and shoulders above the rest of the division, going a combined 12-0. The Colts have won both of their divisional games this season, but didn’t cover the spread in either, after covering the spread in all 12 divisional games in 2013 and 2014, and could have easily lost both games, winning by a combined 5 points. In their other two games, they’ve gotten blown out by the Jets and Bills, perhaps solid teams, but not the NFL’s cream of the crop or anything. They definitely can’t afford to look past a capable Texans team here.

The Colts definitely could look past the Texans somewhat here, as they are in a bad spot. The Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck, while the Colts have to host the Patriots next week. The Colts are expected 5 point underdogs at home for New England. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter, but the Colts also aren’t that good, especially as banged up as they are.

There are a couple reasons I wouldn’t put money on the Texans, in addition to the Colts’ recent divisional dominance. I don’t think that matters too much now with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are, but it’s still worth mentioning. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Colts are 18-5 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2011, but, again, I don’t know how much that matters with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are. I just really wish we were getting a little bit more line value with the Texans. I’d put money on them at 3 or so, but this line is 5, so I’ll stay away.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -5

Confidence: Low

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2015 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 3

Straight Up: 10-5

Against the Spread: 7-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 3-3

No Confidence: 0-2

Upset Picks: 1-2

2015

Straight Up: 41-22

Against the Spread: 31-31-1

Pick of the Week: 1-3

High Confidence: 4-2

Medium Confidence: 10-7

Low Confidence: 9-11

No Confidence: 7-8-1

Upset Picks: 7-7

Since 2013

Straight Up: 391-204-2 (65.7%)

Against the Spread: 329-254-14 (56.4%)

Pick of the Week: 20-16-2 (55.6%)

High Confidence: 38-23-1 (62.3%)

Medium Confidence: 99-64 (60.7%)

Low Confidence: 84-71-5 (54.2%)

No Confidence: 88-80-6 (52.4%)

Upset Picks: 52-62 (45.6%)