2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0)

The Patriots are in a good spot this week, as they are 9 point favorites before being favored by a bunch of points again next week, as they’re expected to be 10.5 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. That being said, I’m still going with the Jets as 9 point underdogs for a bunch of reasons.

For one, the Patriots don’t deserve to be 9 point favorites here. They’re good, arguably the best team in the league, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, carrying over their strong play from down the stretch in 2014 into 2015, but the Jets are also a very good team, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, just one spot below the Patriots. The Patriots are much more likely to finish the season in the top-3 and are the more talented team on paper, but the Jets are much improved from last season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, the Jets got defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension, adding to an already stacked 3-man defensive front in their 3-4 defense, with Damon Harrison, Leonard Williams, and Muhammad Wilkerson. They rank #1 by a wide margin in rate of moving the chains allowed and could give the Patriots’ offense a lot of problems. This is the toughest game of the Patriots’ season thus far and they shouldn’t be favored by much more than 4 or 5 points. We’re getting great value with the Jets at +9, even with the Patriots having an easy game on deck. The Jets shouldn’t be 9 point underdogs anywhere.

On top of that, the Patriots’ easy game next week might not be as easy as it seems, as they have to turn around and face the Dolphins in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That hurts them, as teams, particularly favorites, struggle before Thursday Night Football, as having another game in 4 days understandably provides a distraction. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. I wouldn’t worry too much about that aforementioned trend about 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites because the Jets are such a tough opponent and the Patriots’ next game is in 4 days.

The Jets, meanwhile, also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Oakland, where they’re expected to be 3 point road favorites. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Jets aren’t guaranteed to be 3+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. This is a way more important game for the Jets than their next game will be and that should show on the field, especially against a New England team that has to play again in 4 days. The Jets are also in a much better injury situation, with no one of note expected to miss this game, besides backup running back Bilal Powell. The Patriots, meanwhile, were already without left tackle Nate Solder for the season going into last week and now are also without replacement left tackle Marcus Cannon, along with defensive end Jabaal Sheard and Dont’a Hightower, very big parts of their defense. I’d take the Jets +9 easily.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +9

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)

One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this time. In this game between the Browns and Rams in St. Louis, the Browns have easily the tougher upcoming matchup, as they host the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals, while the Rams host the bottom dwelling San Francisco 49ers. While the Browns are expected to be 4 point home underdogs, the Rams are expected to be at least 6 point home favorites next week. Teams are 71-123 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point home underdogs and 109-67 ATS over that same time period as 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are here as 6.5 point favorites) before being 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are expected to be again next week against the 49ers).

However, the Rams really do not deserve to be favored by 6.5 points, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a pitiful offense that moves the chains at the league’s worst rate. Through 5 games, they have just 72 first downs to 97 for their opponents. There’s a very good chance they finish with 6 wins or fewer this season and teams that finish with that few wins only cover the spread about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It’s a tough trend to use because you don’t always know that a team won’t win that many games, especially early in the season like this, but I’m making an educated guess.

Besides, the Browns, while they have their own issues, rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, so there’s really no reason the Rams should be favored by 6.5 here at home. They’re not 3.5-4 points better than the Browns. They should be favored by only like 2 points, even with an easy game on deck for the Rams and a tougher one on deck for the Browns. The Browns are missing defensive backs Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson with injury in this one, but neither of them have been playing that well anyway. Meanwhile, the Rams are without outside linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive end Chris Long from a defense that is keeping this team afloat. As long as this line is higher than 6, I have no problem putting money on the Browns.

St. Louis Rams 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home games. They used the week 5 bye to fire head coach Joe Philbin and install interim head coach Dan Campbell, previously the tight ends coach. Though Campbell has no head coaching or even coordinator experience, he seemed to do a good job with them in the transition period, as the Dolphins blew out the Titans 38-10 in Tennessee off of the bye last Sunday.

As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 last week to 5 this week. Typically, I love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically the result of overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as I think this line is way too high. The Dolphins still only rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re probably more talented than that suggests, but they’re a deeply flawed team with major issues in the secondary and on the offensive line and also have a very inexperienced head coach and coaching staff.

The Texans have their own issues, but are playing much better of late, since switching back to Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer is Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback this season and Houston ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential. There’s no way the Dolphins should be favored by 5 here, especially given that the Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS at home favored by 3+ points since Ryan Tannehill arrived in 2012. They shouldn’t be getting more than 2 points for their homefield advantage, which means that you should only take the Dolphins if you think they’re at least 3 points better than the Texans. I don’t think they are.

The Dolphins are also in a horrific spot, having to turn around and face the Patriots 4 days after this one, as they go to Foxboro for Thursday Night Football next week. Teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 or more (the early line is NE –10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this case, it’s more the first, but, as we’ve established, they’re not a great team either.

The Texans, meanwhile, host the Titans next week, a game in which they’ll definitely be favored in Houston. Favorites before being underdogs (like the Dolphins are) are 70-113 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites (like the Texans are) since 2010. Combining the two, favorites who will next be 10+ point underdogs are 19-47 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites since 1989. On top of that, the Dolphins are favorites before Thursday Night Football. Teams are 41-66 ATS in that spot since 2008. With arguably their hardest game of the season on deck, just 4 days after this one, I really don’t expect the Dolphins to be focused at all for the Texans.

The only edge the Dolphins have is in terms of these two respective team’s injury situations. The Texans will be missing starting cornerback Kareem Jackson and middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney for this one, though the former really hasn’t been playing that well this season. The Dolphins are just missing starting cornerback Brice McCain and he’s one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football. Still, I have no problem taking the Texans +5 as my Pick of the Week. The Dolphins will have trouble winning this one by more than a field goal.

Houston Texans 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Houston +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that these two teams would have the same record going into their week 7 Thursday Night matchup? These two teams were huge rivals a couple of years ago, but, while the 49ers have fallen apart in the past year, the Seahawks have stayed strong, making back-to-back Super Bowls. However, this year, they’ve won the same amount of games. It’s not that the 49ers have really exceeded expectations, as they’ve been just as bad as expected.

San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. Now they’re just 2-4 and rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential.

The Seahawks also are 2-4, but the public seems to think they’re still the far better one between these two teams, backing them pretty heavily as 6.5 point road favorites. I agree with them. The Seahawks certainly have been a disappointing team this year, thanks largely to an offense that has been hamstrung by a horrendous offensive line and an injury to running back Marshawn Lynch, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, that’s way better than the 49ers and the Seahawks have also faced a much tougher schedule, going to Green Bay, hosting Carolina, and going to Cincinnati. Despite that, 3 of their losses have come by a combined 10 points.

Is that enough to justify them being 6.5 point road favorites? I’m not necessarily sure, but they are in a good spot. While the Seahawks go to Dallas next week, where they’ll be 5.5 point favorites, the 49ers go to St. Louis, where they’ll be 6 point underdogs. Teams are 109-80 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites (like the Seahawks will be) and 72-48 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, while 6 point underdogs, like the 49ers are here, are 72-95 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs again, as they will be next week. Better teams tend to cover as long as they don’t have a big distraction on the horizon, especially if the other team has another game that’ll be tough for them on tough. I wouldn’t put money on either side, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

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