2015 Week 9 NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running back Karlos Williams, starting wide receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and star defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills aren’t 100% this week, but they definitely come out of the bye healthier. Harvin has been put on injured reserve (I know, shocker), Kyle Williams remains out, and Sammy Watkins is going to be a game time call after tweaking his ankle injury late in the week, but Taylor and Karlos Williams are both definitely returning. Taylor’s return is definitely the biggest one, as he was playing pretty well before going down, while backup quarterback EJ Manuel didn’t play well in his absence.

However, the Bills also come out of the bye into an awful spot, with a Thursday night trip to New York to play the Jets on deck, following this home contest against the Dolphins. Divisional home favorites are 21-58 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, one of the worst spots a team can be in. On top of that, favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are just 31-54 ATS against a team they previously beat that season as divisional road favorites, as the Bills did back in week 3.

This would be my Pick of the Week most weeks. The only reason it’s not this week, in addition to the fact that I really like the undefeated Panthers as field goal home underdogs against Green Bay, is because the Bills are a slightly better team and are only favored by a field goal. They rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Dolphins rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. On top of that, they’re getting healthier, while the Dolphins just lost one of their top defensive players, Cameron Wake, for the season. However, the Bills are still far from healthy and we’re still getting field goal protection with the Dolphins (15.6% of games are decided by a field goal) and, of course, the Bills are in an awful spot. I really like Miami this week.

Miami Dolphins 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0)

The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started by Aaron Rodgers in his whole career. Some are brushing that performance off as a product of the Broncos’ defense, who have been called arguably the greatest defense of all time this week by some. The Broncos certainly have a great defense, one that ranks 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains allowed, but calling them an all-time great at this point is a huge overreaction.

I’m not so sure the Packers will find too much more offensive success this week in Carolina, who rank 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Obviously there are some fluky elements to the Packers having such a poor offensive performance last week, even against a great defense like Denver, but there are legitimate reasons for concern. This offense hasn’t been the same this year without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but that’s a far cry from last year, when they ranked #1. As I mentioned, the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, with defensive tackle Kawaan Short, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis, and cornerback Josh Norman all playing at an All-Pro level, so the Packers could definitely have issues moving the ball again this week.

The Panthers’ offense is pretty average, as it’s really been their defense that’s carried the team to their 7-0 record, while the Packers’ defense has been pretty solid, though it’s concerning that they struggled to contain a Denver offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains this season. It’s possible that performance can be chalked up to a fluke and a product of Peyton Manning and company being rested and having a great game plan off of a bye, but, either way, the Packers rank lower in rate of moving the chains differential than the Panthers (8th vs. 5th) and yet the Packers are the ones getting a field goal here on the road, away from Lambeau where they’re so good. Since 2010, they’re 41-7 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.98 points per game (31-17 ATS), but just 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.12 points per game (24-24 ATS). This season, in addition to last big week’s loss in Denver, they’ve had trouble with both Chicago and San Francisco on the road and those are two of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers are also in a good spot, going to Tennessee next week, a pretty easy place to play. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. On top of that, teams are 106-82 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 69-49 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. It hurts the Panthers that they’ll be without talented left guard Andrew Norwell, but they get center Ryan Kalil back this week and the Packers have an equally big injury as cornerback Sam Shields hasn’t practiced all week and is considered very questionable at best.

It does help the Packers that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 41-28 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is also 21-10 ATS off a loss in his career, which should give Packers fans some hope for a bounce back performance. However, I still think taking the field goal with the better team in the better spot at home is a no brainer here, especially with the public heavily on the Packers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)

The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t think that line is high enough, as the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns rank all the way down at 27. This is a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league and I don’t think this line quite reflects that. I have this line calculated at around 15.

That’s before we even get into these two teams’ respective injury situations. The Bengals have a couple of starters who will likely miss this game because of injury, linebacker Rey Maualuga and right tackle Andre Smith, but the Browns will likely be missing quarterback Josh McCown, wide receiver Brian Hartline, wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, cornerback Joe Haden, and safety Donte Whitner. On their own, none of those injuries are too damaging to this team (Haden and Whitner are having down years), but they all add up. The biggest one might be the one to their quarterback McCown. McCown isn’t very good, but Manziel is probably even worse and the task of preparing for a team like the Bengals, on the road, on a short week when you’ve had very little practice time with the first team is borderline impossible, especially with some receivers also missing with injury.

The Bengals are also in a great spot with no upcoming distractions on the horizon, hosting the Texans next week. The Browns, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals will undoubtedly be favored by 6+ again, while the Browns undoubtedly will be underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are 77-39 ATS since 2012 as favorites of 6+ about being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 40-63 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, teams are 35-13 ATS as favorites of 6+ before being favorites of 6+ when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week, since 2010. There’s just too much for the Browns to overcome this week and, without a ton of public money on Cincinnati, I’m really confident in the Bengals as 10 point favorites. There are a few other lines I really like this week, but this one is definitely up there.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10

Confidence: High

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