2016 NFL Picks

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (8-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)

These two teams met back in week 12 in a game in which the Chiefs prevailed in overtime on a last second field goal. Despite Kansas City’s win, the Broncos actually outplayed the Chiefs for most of the game. The Chiefs needed a return touchdown and a Denver muffed punt just to get it to overtime and still trailed by 8 until the final drive, when they scored their 2nd offensive touchdown of the game and converted for two. At the very least, it was a game that could have gone either way, but it’s arguably a game that the Broncos should have won outright in regulation.

That game was in Denver and this one is in Kansas City, but that actually puts the Broncos in a good spot, as comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. Divisional road underdogs are 61-34 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites and they also pull the upset and win straight up about half the time. These teams aren’t quite comparable though, as I have the Broncos ranked a few spots higher, so their likelihood of pulling the upset should be even higher.

The Chiefs have 10 wins, but have allowed 44 first downs and 3 offensive touchdowns more than they’ve scored. Their record is largely the result of 6 wins by 8 points or less (including two overtime victories), a +13 turnover margin, and a +7 return touchdown margin, but it’s tough to rely on takeaways and return touchdowns to win you close games, as there’s no week-to-week correlation in turnover margin and, as a result, there’s no week-to-week correlation in return touchdown margin.

The Chiefs won the turnover margin by 2 at home against the Titans last week, but still lost the game as big home favorites because they lost the first down battle 21 to 13 and the first down rate battle by 10.19%, a huge margin. Teams that win the turnover margin by 2, on average, win the game about 81.6% of the time, but the following week they win just 54.2% of the time and an have an average turnover margin of -0.1. That’s the same average turnover margin had by teams that had a +4 turnover margin the week before and the same average turnover margin had by teams that had a -4 turnover margin the week before. There’s simply no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and the following week.

While the Broncos enter this game 12th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 28th for the Chiefs. That gap seems bigger than it is because the gap between 12th and 28th is smaller than the gap between 12th and 4th, but the Broncos still have a 3% advantage in that metric, a significant amount. If we assume turnover neutral football, which we always should because of how inconsistent turnover margins are, the Broncos have a great chance to win this game on the road, even before taking into account any trends.

The Broncos enter this game pretty banged up, with middle linebacker Brandon Marshall and safety TJ Ward out and defensive end Derek Wolfe being a game time call, but the Chiefs are expected to be without their best defensive player, outside linebacker Justin Houston, while talented middle linebacker Derrick Johnson went down for the season with a torn achilles two weeks ago, so that kind of evens out. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, but I like the Broncos’ chances to win straight up as well. The Broncos are a high confidence pick at 4 or 3.5 and I’d take them all the way down to 3 if I had to.

Denver Broncos 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Denver +4

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1) at Houston Texans (7-7)

The Bengals were expecting to get top wide receiver AJ Green back from injury this week, after a 4-game absence with a hamstring injury. Green even said he was playing this week. However, at the end of a lost season, after getting eliminated in a close loss to the Steelers last week, the Bengals have decided to shut Green down for the rest of the regular season. Green won’t be the only absent Cincinnati player this week either, as he’ll be joined by top linebacker Vontaze Burfict and tight end Tyler Eifert, their top pass catcher in Green’s absence. Despite that, this line has shifted from 3 on the early line last week to 2.5 this week. The Texans could be without starting running back Lamar Miller, but we’re still not really getting any line value with the Bengals anymore. They’re still the pick here, but this is a no confidence pick because a field goal Houston victory is definitely a strong possibility.

Houston Texans 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +2.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Carolina Panthers (6-8)

The Falcons are 9-5, but they’re actually even better than that suggests, as they’ve gone 9-5 despite a 3-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In fact, they rank 2nd in the NFL in both first down rate differential and point differential, ahead of the NFC leading Dallas Cowboys in both categories. This week, they get a couple of key players back from injury, with top wide receiver Julio Jones returning from a 2-game absence and starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn returning from a 3-game absence. The Panthers, meanwhile, are in a tough injury situation, missing two starters on the offensive line and top defensive player Luke Kuechly. That being said, we’re not getting great line value with the Falcons as 3 point road favorites. I wish this line was still 2.5, as it was earlier in the week when it opened. At 3, this is a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-7)

These two teams finish their regular seasons in pretty much completely opposite fashions next week. While the Bills get an easy road game in New York against the lowly Jets, the Dolphins have to go home and host the New England Patriots. Teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point road favorites, which the Bills should be next week, and 43-93 ATS over that time period before being 4.5+ point home underdogs, which the Dolphins should be next week. In addition, the Dolphins are in a much worse injury situation.

The absence of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is obvious, even if backup Matt Moore is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, but they’re also without top cornerback Byron Maxwell, who has really been playing well in recent weeks. The Bills will be without left tackle Cordy Glenn, but they are definitely in the better injury situation overall. Even before injuries are taken into account, the Bills have played slightly better than the Dolphins this season, entering 15th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 20th for the Dolphins.

When this line opened at 3.5, I was hoping it would eventually come down to 3 by gametime. Instead, the opposite happened, as the line has since jumped to 4.5. I would have put money on the Bills as 3 point home favorites, but I’m not nearly as confident in them as 4.5 point home favorites, especially given that about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The Bills could easily outplay the Dolphins all game, but allow a late backdoor cover to give the Dolphins the cover. I’m still taking Buffalo, but it’s a low confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 23 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-13) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)

These two teams met back in week 1 in what ended up being an absolute rout by the hometown San Francisco 49ers. Not only did the 49ers shutout the Rams, but they won the first down battle 28 to 10 and moved the chains at a 41.56% rate, as opposed to 16.67% for the Rams, a differential of 24.89% that is still one of the biggest single game first down rate differentials of the season. Since then though, the 49ers have lost 13 straight by an average of 15.23 points. The Rams haven’t been much better, entering this game at 4-10, with their 4 victories coming by a combined 18 points and their 10 losses coming by a combined 149 points, giving them a -131 point differential on the season, which is only ahead of the Browns and 49ers.

The 49ers actually still rank higher than the Rams in first down rate, though they’ve been ravaged by injuries this season and are missing, among others, cornerback Jimmie Ward, defensive end Arik Armstead, middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman, and safety Eric Reid for the season. All 4 of those players played in the week 1 matchup and those were arguably their best defensive players before going down. Now they’re working with a skeleton crew on defense and things are not much better on offense, where left tackle Joe Staley, easily their best player on either side of the ball, will miss his 3rd straight game with a hamstring injury. The Rams have had some injuries this season, most notably to defensive end Robert Quinn, their top pass rusher who is out for the season, but they definitely have an advantage in terms of injury situations.

Despite that, we’re still getting line value with the 49ers as 5 point underdogs in Los Angeles. The Rams are probably a little bit better of a team, but this line should be much closer to 3 in favor of the host, as these two teams are more or less even. That being said, there’s not enough here for me to be confident in the 49ers, especially since both teams are in a pretty good spot. The Rams have lost back-to-back games by 21+ and teams are 44-29 ATS in that spot since 2002, as teams tend to be overlooked, embarrassed, and undervalued in that spot. However, they are not undervalued as 5 point home favorites. They probably won’t be overlooked by a team that has lost 13 straight. And, they probably aren’t entering this game any more embarrassed than the 49ers are. On the flip side, for the 49ers, road underdogs on a 7+ game losing streak are 56-32 ATS since 1989, as teams also tend to be overlooked, embarrassed, and undervalued in that spot.

It also helps the 49ers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 142-108 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 113-74 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 239-254 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.94 points per game, as opposed to 341-476 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.96 points per game. However, with a tough home game against the Seahawks on deck, the 49ers are in a tough spot, as teams tend to struggle before tough home games, going 18-40 ATS since 2012 before being 7+ point home underdogs, which the 49ers almost definitely will be next week. I’m taking the 49ers because I’m expecting a field goal game, but I couldn’t be confident betting any money on them.

Los Angeles Rams 16 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints are the better of these two teams, despite the Buccaneers having a 2 game lead in the standings and winning a close matchup between these two teams in Tampa Bay a couple weeks back. The Saints enter this game with a point differential of +14, as opposed to -9 for the Buccaneers. The Saints actually rank 3rd in the NFL with a +10 offensive touchdown margin, but are just 6-8 as a result of because of a -4 return touchdown differential and 6 losses by 6 points or fewer, including 4 losses by 3 points or fewer. In terms of first down rate differential, the Saints rank 8th, while the Buccaneers rank 24th. Despite that, this line is at 3, suggesting these two teams are equal, so we’re getting some line value with the Saints.

On the other hand, the Saints are in a tough spot with a trip to Atlanta on deck, while the Buccaneers get to host the last place Carolina Panthers. Divisional home favorites are just 23-61 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, favorites are 61-97 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, which the Buccaneers almost definitely will be next week at home against the Panthers. With another tough game on deck, the Saints could have trouble playing their best, while the Buccaneers should be completely focused.

The Buccaneers are also in a good spot in their second of two road games. Teams are 142-108 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 113-74 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 239-254 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.94 points per game, as opposed to 341-476 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.96 points per game. I’m taking the Saints, but this is a no confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (4-10) at New England Patriots (12-2)

The Patriots finish the season in Miami next week, while the Jets host the Bills. That puts the Patriots in a much better spot because the Miami isn’t a real distraction for them. The Buffalo game might not be a distraction for the Jets given that they’re facing the Patriots this week, but it’s tough for inferior teams to keep it close against superior teams with a big home game on deck, while superior teams tend to take care of business and cover the spread when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. While teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, as the Patriots will be next week in Miami, teams are 43-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as the Jets will be next week against the Bills. That being said, the Patriots are favored by 17 here at home, so we’re getting terrible value with them. This is a no confidence pick, but New England is the pick in pick ‘em pools.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: New England -17

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (8-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)

Both of these teams used to top my underrated list, but have fallen down the list in recent weeks. In Tennessee’s case, it’s just a matter of public opinion catching up to how good they actually are, following upset victories over Green Bay, Denver, and Kansas City in recent weeks. They’re still an underrated team that ranks 6th in first down rate differential, but they’re not underrated like they once were. In Jacksonville’s case, it’s because they have played especially poorly in the past 2 weeks and just fired their head coach Gus Bradley.

Against the Vikings at home, the Jaguars lost the first down rate battle by 8.86% and last week against the Texans they lost the first down rate by 10.77%. It was only a 1-point loss, but that was despite the fact that the Jaguars won the turnover battle and returned a punt for a touchdown. They managed just 9 first downs all game, as compared to 23 for the Texans, who are not a tough opponent. They still rank 17th in first down rate differential on the season, but with Bradley gone and just two games left in the season, it’s possible this team could quit. For that reason, I’m taking the Titans, but I couldn’t be confident in them at all as 5.5 point road favorites in what could be a trap game against a Jaguars team that has still played a lot better than their 2-12 record would suggest, especially on the defensive.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -5.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (0-14)

Betting on winless teams is usually a good idea, as teams that are 0-8 or worse are 34-22 ATS since 1989. However, no one seems to have told that to the Browns, who have failed to cover in 8 straight games and are now 0-14. The Browns have lost 7 of those 8 games by 13 or more points and their average margin of defeat over those 8 games has been 13.88 points per game. They covered some spreads earlier in the year, but that was before injuries struck their offensive line and while Cody Kessler was starting at quarterback. Kessler wasn’t great or anything, but he was significantly better than both Josh McCown or Robert Griffin. It’s no coincidence that they are 2-2 ATS in the 4 games he’s started and finished and just 1-9 ATS in their other 10 games. RG3, who has looked lost in 2 starts since returning from injury, has been the worst of the bunch, but he’ll get another start this week.

Typically, when a team has lost as many games against the spread in a row as the Browns have, the odds makers boost the spread significantly, but we’re still getting good line value with the Chargers as 4.5 point road favorites in Cleveland. That’s because the Chargers are an underrated team. Despite a 5-9 record, the Chargers have an even point differential, significantly better than Cleveland’s league worst -188. That’s despite the fact that the Chargers are -5 in turnover margin on the season. They have 14 more first downs and 3 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents on the season and rank 5th in first down rate differential, significantly higher than the Browns, who are in dead last in that metric.

The Chargers are in a tough spot with a home game against the Chiefs on deck, a game in which they are expected to be home underdogs. Road favorites tend to struggle before being home favorites, going 52-71 ATS since 2002. The Chargers could overlook the Browns with Kansas City on deck. However, the Browns don’t exactly have it easy next week either with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams predictably struggle before tough games like that, going 41-67 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. I like the Chargers’ chances to win this game by a good margin.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1)

The last time these two teams faced each other, it was a defensive matchup that ended in a 6-6 tie. However, the Cardinals actually significantly outplayed the Seahawks in that game, winning the first down battle 23 to 11 and the first down rate battle by 6.26%. They had plenty of opportunities to win that game, missing two makeable field goals and allowing a blocked punt that set up a Seattle field goal at the end of the first half. That game was in Arizona, but this line is at 8.5, so we have plenty of room to work with even if the Cardinals get outplayed this time around.

That tie against the Seahawks was not the only winnable game the Cardinals have blown this year because of special teams. They missed a game winning field goal against New England. They allowed a long punt return to set up the winning score against the Rams. They allowed a kickoff return touchdown in a 6-point loss to the Vikings. And against Miami, in a 3-point loss, special teams cost them 7 points on 3 plays with a missed field goal, a missed extra point, and a blocked extra point that was returned for 2 points. They’ve won the first down rate battle in 12 of 14 games and rank 3rd in first down rate differential on the season, but have been arguably the most disappointing team in football record wise, going 5-8-1 after finishing last season 13-3. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 7th in first down rate differential, so we’re definitely getting some line value with the Cardinals.

This isn’t a bigger play for two reasons. One, the Cardinals are pretty banged up at this point in the season. Left tackle Jared Veldheer, right guard Evan Mathis, middle linebacker Deone Bucannon, cornerback Tyrann Mathieu, and safety Tyvon Branch are all out for the season, while replacement left tackle DJ Humphries is out this week with a concussion. The Seahawks are missing safety Earl Thomas, but they’re definitely in a better spot injury wise, especially since they were without their other safety Kam Chancellor in their first matchup with Arizona.

The second reason is the Seahawks are in a good spot with only an easy game in San Francisco on deck, in which they are expected to be road favorites of at least 10 points. Teams are 34-20 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 7 or more and favorites of 7 or more are 58-33 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more again over that same time period. Teams tend to take care of business before easy games, but the Seahawks should have a much tougher time taking care of business than this line suggests against an Arizona team that has been much better than their record and that is a few special teams plays away from a completely different season.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona +8.5

Confidence: Medium

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