2016 NFL Season Previews

Houston Texans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Texans have gone 18-14 over the past 2 seasons, since ex-Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien took over as head coach of a previously 2-14 team. They’ve done that despite remarkably playing 7 different quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. Their offense wasn’t horrendous in 2015, as they finished 22nd in rate of moving the chains, but their defense was definitely what carried them to a divisional title and a home playoff game, as they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Of course, the Texans got blown out in that home playoff game, losing 30-0, as Brian Hoyer completed just 15 of 34 passes for 136 yards and 4 interceptions. The game was a lot closer than a final score, as the Chiefs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until after stud defensive end JJ Watt went out for the game with an injury in the third quarter, but the way Hoyer played that game, the Texans didn’t stand a chance, no matter how well their defense played. It’s not indicative of how Hoyer played all season. He just had the worst game of his season at the worst time. However, he wasn’t great in the regular season either, completing 60.7% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 9 starts, leading a mediocre Texan offense and finishing 31st out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus.

It was obvious the Texans needed a quarterback and, rather than waiting for one to fall to them at 22 in the draft or trying to move up on draft day, the Texans addressed the quarterback position early in free agency, signing ex-Bronco quarterback Brock Osweiler to a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal and releasing Hoyer. I’m really not sold on Osweiler being worth that much though. His overall numbers weren’t bad in 7 starts with the Broncos in 2015, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 7.15 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while grading out 20th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled with him under center, moving the chains at a mere 68.66% rate in the 6 games he started and finished.

The Broncos had offensive issues beyond the quarterback position, but the Broncos’ offense was barely worse in the 8 regular season games Peyton Manning started and finished and Manning was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos ran the ball a lot better in the second half of the season, when Osweiler made all of his starts. The fact that the Broncos were willing to go back to Manning instead of Osweiler when he returned from injury, as much as Manning had struggled to start the year, and is telling, as is the fact that the Broncos wouldn’t offer Osweiler any more than 45 million over 3 years.

Osweiler was just a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, so he wasn’t exactly in high demand coming out of college, and he’s made just 7 starts since then, so we have a very limited sample size. There was some promise in that sample size, but it’s hard to justify paying him more than the Broncos would offer when they’re the ones who know him best. I know Houston was desperate for a quarterback, but so were the Broncos and I’m not sure Osweiler is a huge upgrade over Hoyer, though he obviously has way more upside, only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With struggles under center and a great defense supporting them, it should come as no surprise that the Texans’ offense has ranked in the top-5 in carries in each of the past 2 seasons (551 carries in 2014 and 472 carries in 2015). However, they’ve really struggled on the ground, averaging just 3.80 yards per carry over that time period. They needed an upgrade at running back as much as they needed an upgrade at quarterback this off-season and they got a good one, signing ex-Dolphin Lamar Miller to a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal.

Miller has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 638 career carries in 4 years in the league and has finished in the top-7 among running backs in pure run grade on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons (joining Marshawn Lynch and Le’Veon Bell as the only running backs who can say that). However, he’s gotten just 410 carries over those past 2 seasons, turning them into 1871 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.56 YPC). In 2014, you could blame his struggles in the passing game for his overall low usage, but there was no excuse in 2015, when he graded out above average as a pass blocker for the first time in his career and added 47 catches for 397 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air on an offense that was otherwise horrendous.

Miller certainly won’t be underutilized in Houston. Even if they pass the ball more often this season with Osweiler coming in, they still are a quick pace team that led the NFL in plays run last season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for Miller to get the ball. In a league where few backs surpass 300 carries in a season anymore, Miller could easily finish in the top-5 in touches if he can stay healthy. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2012, but he’s still somewhat of a projection to a larger role, as he’s never had more than 254 touches in a season.

Miller’s only real competition for carries is Alfred Blue. A 2014 6th round pick, Blue has gotten plenty of action in his first 2 seasons in the league, with 352 carries, but he turned those into just 1226 yards and 4 touchdowns, a weak 3.48 YPC. He’s the reason why the Texans brought Miller in and he’ll be nothing more than a pure backup to Blue. He could even be pushed for his #2 job at some point this season by 4th round rookie Tyler Ervin, out of San Jose State. They’d likely split carries if Miller went down. It’s an obviously improved group of running backs.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

In addition to quarterback and running back, it’s obvious the Texans made the wide receiver position a priority this off-season, adding Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller in the 1st round of the draft and Ohio State wide receiver Braxton Miller in the 3rd round of the draft. Miller is much more of a project, converting from quarterback to wide receiver just last season, but Fuller has a great chance to play serious snaps as a rookie. He’ll compete with 2nd year player Jaelen Strong for the #2 wide receiver job this season. Fuller would seem to be the early favorite, but Strong wasn’t bad on 320 snaps as a rookie, as the 4th receiver behind departed mediocre veterans Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, so don’t be surprised if he plays a big role.

DeAndre Hopkins remains locked in as the #1 receiver, though he’s unlikely to see the 192 targets (3rd in the NFL) that he saw last season, with more options to throw to in the passing game. Still, he’s finished in the top-12 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons, so he’s great player and figures to be a frequent target of Osweiler’s. With likely better quarterback play, more talent around him, and his best years possibly still ahead of him, going into just his age 24 season, the 2013 1st round pick could easily come close to last year’s numbers, when he caught 111 passes (3rd in the NFL) for 1521 yards (also 3rd in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the whole game and the Texans’ best offensive player.

Things are not as good at tight end, where 2014 3rd round pick CJ Fiedorowicz remains as the starter. Fiedorowicz struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 63th out of 67 eligible tight ends and, though he moved up to 29th in 2015 (above average), he still struggled mightily as a pass catcher, catching just 17 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown in 16 games. He’s a strong run blocker at 6-5 265, but little else. Ryan Griffin actually led all Texan tight ends in receiving last year, catching 20 passes for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he was terrible all around, finishing 66th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 351 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 3 straight seasons, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2013. There’s definitely upside in this unit, but they could still struggle for consistency after DeAndre Hopkins.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Brian Hoyer’s terrible performance in the playoff game was a huge part of the reason why this offense couldn’t move the ball, but the loss of left tackle Duane Brown to a torn quad was definitely felt as well, both in pass protection and on the ground. Brown went down for the season with a torn quad week 17, a huge loss, considering he finished the season 13th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. He’s no one-year wonder, finishing in the top-24 among offensive tackles in each of the last 6 seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, and is reportedly not a lock to be ready by week 1, so there’s some cause for concern. That being said, he figures to have a strong season again once he’s finally able to play.

Brown isn’t the only Texans’ offensive lineman dealing with a major injury, as rookie 2nd rounder pick Nick Martin will miss the entire season with an ankle injury. Following the loss of capable veteran Ben Jones in free agency, Martin was expected to start, but the Texans will now turn to 2nd year undrafted free agent Greg Mancz, who played just 1 offensive snap as a rookie. It’s a major position of concern after losing first Jones and then Martin. Mancz figures to be overwhelmed as a starter.

Meanwhile at right guard, free agent acquisition Jeff Allen, formerly of the Chiefs, replaces right guard Brandon Brooks, who also left as a free agent this off-season. Allen is coming off of a very strong season, finishing 16th among guards on Pro Football Focus, earning him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal. The Texans might have overpaid, considering he graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in 2012 and 2013, before missing all but 1 game in 2014 with an elbow injury. Even in 2015, he only played 429 snaps and made 8 starts, so he’s unproven and a risky signing, but the 2012 2nd round pick is not a bad starter.

The same cannot really be said of Xavier Su’a-Filo, a 2014 2nd round pick who struggled in his first season as a starter in 2015, finishing 61st out of 81 eligible guards. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league though. The Texans will obviously be hoping he improves, as they don’t really have another option. Oday Aboushi is their next best options, but he has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, dating back to his rookie year in 2013, when he was a 5th round pick of the Jets.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Derek Newton, who is coming off of his 2nd straight seasons grading out above average, after struggling mightily early in his career. Newton has never been a good pass protector, but he’s been dominant in the run game in each of the last 2 seasons. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked offensive tackle in 2015, including 13th in pure run blocking grade. Obviously, pass protection is more important in today’s NFL, but Newton is not a bad starter. It’s not a bad offensive line overall, but there are definitely some problems, especially with injuries hitting them hard already.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

It’s not just the offensive line where the Texans have already been hit hard by injury, as stud defensive end JJ Watt is questionable for week 1 after undergoing back surgery in July. As I mentioned earlier, the Texans’ defense has been what’s carried this team over the past couple of seasons. And what’s carried this defense has been JJ Watt, 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Last year was arguably the worst season Watt has had since his rookie year in 2011, as he finished 2nd among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus behind Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s obviously an incredible season, as he still finished #1 among 3-4 defensive ends for the 4th straight season, but he didn’t have the highest overall defensive grade on Pro Football Focus for the 4th straight season, as both Donald and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly both finished higher.

I would have voted for Donald over Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt should have won it in 2013, when he lost to Kuechly, so it all evens out. Any way you look at it, he’s one of the top few players in the entire NFL. The only reason he wasn’t quite as dominant as 2012-2014 is because he was hampered by injuries down the stretch, including a broken hand. Watt still hasn’t missed a game with injury in 5 years in the league, though his status is now in question for week 1, which puts a bit of damper on his 2016 expectations. Needless to say, any time he misses with injury would hurt this team’s playoff chances.

Things are not nearly as good on the rest of the defensive line. That might sound weird to say, considering likely future hall-of-famer Vince Wilfork starts at nose tackle, but he’s purely a two-down player at this stage in his career. WIlfork played just 562 regular season snaps last season and, while he excelled against the run, finishing 25th among interior defenders in that category, he got absolutely no pass rush, finishing 106th out of 123 eligible interior defenders in that category. Going into his age 35 season, the end is near for Big Vince. The Texans drafted his likely successor in the 5th round, taking Georgia Tech nose tackle DJ Reader, who measured in at 6-3 327 at the combine. Wilfork should still play the run well in a limited role this season, but it’s not out of the question that Reader could push him for snaps down the stretch.

The other defensive end spot is particularly problematic, as that’s an every down position without anything close to a clear starter. Departed free agent Jared Crick wasn’t good in that spot last season, but no one currently on the roster looks like an upgrade. 2014 6th round pick Jeoffrey Pagan, 2015 6th round pick Christian Covington, and 2014 undrafted free agent Brandon Dunn will compete for snaps at the position. None have any noteworthy experience. Pagan struggled on 191 snaps as a rookie in 2014 and played just 44 snaps last season. Covington played just 167 snaps as a rookie last season. Dunn played a career high 142 snaps last season. It’s a major position of weakness. This defensive line badly needs a healthy JJ Watt.

Grade: B

Linebackers

It wasn’t just the JJ Watt show last season on defense though, as a pair of former first round picks both took a big leap forward last season at outside linebacker. 2014 #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney and 2012 1st round pick Whitney Mercilus remain as starters. Clowney was the higher pick, but Mercilus had the better 2015 season, coming in 15th among edge defenders, while Clowney was 26th. This came after Mercilus finished below average in each of his first 3 years in the league from 2012-2014. He could keep up this high level of play and he has former 1st round pick talent, but he remains a one-year wonder.

Clowney’s biggest issue through 2 years in the league has been injuries, as back and knee problems have limited him to just 17 games in 2 seasons in the league. 13 of those games came last year though and his performance on the field was solid as well. Oozing with talent and still only going into his age 23 season, Clowney could have a big-time breakout year this year if he can stay healthy. Mercilus might have had the better 2015, but Clowney has much higher upside. Both are valuable starters though. They also have a talented reserve in John Simon, who finished last season above average on 639 snaps, after flashing on 239 snaps in 2014. A 2013 4th round pick of the Ravens, Simon has proven the Ravens wrong for giving on him so quickly. He’s an excellent insurance policy that should see about 30 snaps per game regardless.

Inside, the Texans have a promising young linebacker and a declining veteran linebacker. Brian Cushing has been with the Texans since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2009 and had some fantastic seasons early in his career. However, he missed 20 games between 2012-2013 with lower body injuries and has graded out below average in each of the past 2 seasons, including 70th out of 97 eligible last season. Going into his age 29 season, Cushing’s best days are likely behind him.

Fellow starter Benardrick McKinney’s best days appear him ahead of him though, after the 2015 2nd round pick flashed on 411 snaps as a rookie. The 6-4 246 pounder is a force against the run and showed enough in coverage to warrant a larger role in 2016, after playing only in base packages in 2015. Safety Eddie Pleasant played around the line of scrimmage as essentially a 2nd linebacker in sub packages next to Brian Cushing, while McKinney sat on the bench. McKinney is expected to get a shot to play all three downs this season, though it’s not out of the question that Pleasant keeps his sub package job. Along with Clowney, Mercilus, and Simon, McKinney gives the Texans 4 promising young linebackers.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Even if Pleasant doesn’t keep his sub package role, he could still play a significant role on a team whose starting safety jobs are both up for grabs. Quintin Demps and Andre Hal made 13 and 11 starts respectively at safety last year, but both graded out below average. Demps is going into his age 31 season and has never been very good. Hal, meanwhile, is still young, but he wasn’t highly drafted, falling to the 7th round in 2014. Pleasant could push both of them for their jobs, though Demps is probably most vulnerable. Pleasant isn’t a great option either, as the 2012 7th round pick has just 1 career start and struggled in limited action last season. His value comes way more from his versatility and his ability to play both safety and linebacker at 5-11 210, rather than from him being a particularly good player. Whoever starts at safety, it should be a position of weakness.

Cornerback, on the other hand, is a much stronger position. Johnathan Joseph is coming off of arguably the best season of his career, finishing 9th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. In 5 years in Houston, he’s missed just 4 games with injury and has graded out above average in all 5 seasons, with his highest ranked season coming last season. He’s going into his age 32 season so his age is starting to become a concern, but he seems to still be going strong. He’s made the Texans look smart for locking him up on a 3-year, 22 million dollar extension last off-season.

It was a bit of a surprise when the Texans did that, as it looked like Joseph was going into his final year in Houston in 2015 when the Texans used the 16th overall pick on Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson. Between him and fellow former first round pick Kareem Jackson (20th overall in 2010), who they had just re-signed for 34 million over 4 years, it looked like the Texans were pretty set at cornerback for the foreseeable future. Instead, Joseph remains as a starter and Johnson will spent 2016 as the 3rd cornerback again. He graded out slightly below average as a rookie, but could be noticeably better in his 2nd year in the league.

Jackson also graded out below average last season and that’s a little bit more concerning, given how much money they gave him last off-season and given that he has a history of inconsistency. Jackson finished 12th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 11th in 2014, which is what earned him that contract, but he’s graded out below average in each of his other 4 seasons in the league. He’s also missed 9 games with injury in the last 3 seasons combined. There’s bounce back back potential here if he can stay healthy, but there are definitely no guarantees with him. It’s overall a solid secondary though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans did a good job of identifying their biggest needs and addressing them this season, using high picks on wide receivers and spending big money to bring in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller in free agency. However, Osweiler is still an unproven quarterback at best and it’s possible their young wide receivers take a year or so to become impact players in the NFL. Lamar Miller was a great signing, but the Texans are banged up going into the season and have one of the league’s oldest rosters overall. Even in a weak AFC South, it’s going to be tough for them to repeat. The division is not as bad as it was last season.

Prediction: 7-9 3rd in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Given that they had gone 12-0 in division play in 2013 and 2014, winning the division both times, it looked inevitable that the Colts would win the division again in 2015. Instead, the Colts lost 2 divisional games and finished 8-8, in 2nd place in the AFC South. It wasn’t that the division got tougher as the trio of Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee was still not a formidable one. The Colts just had a much worse season overall, falling from 5th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 20th in 2015.

The biggest difference was on offense, where they fell from 10th to 24th, and the obvious reason why is the quarterback play. Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck missed 9 games and was limited in many others with a variety of injuries, including a bruised rotator cuff in his shoulder, broken ribs, and ultimately a lacerated kidney that ended his season. Even when on the field, Luck did not play well at all, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

In fact, when backup Matt Hasselbeck came in for the injured Luck, it seemed to stabilize the offense, as he completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. However, the 39-year-old Hasselbeck was completely beat up by the end of the season, sapping his play, ending his season week 16, and ultimately ending his career, as the 18-year NFL veteran retired this off-season. Any way you look at it, it was a lost season for Andrew Luck in 2015 and, as a result, it was a lost season for the Colts in an otherwise completely winnable division.

However, there’s a ton of bounce back potential with Luck as well and, as a result, a ton of bounce back potential for the Colts in an improved, but still very winnable division. Luck is just going into his age 27 season and the 2012 #1 overall pick was a top-12 quarterback on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including 9th in 2014. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, the Colts still have a ton of faith in him, making him the highest paid player in the league by giving him a 5-year, 123 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal this off-season.

The Colts are obviously betting heavily that Luck will stay healthy in 2016, so much so that they don’t really have a viable backup option. Hasselbeck was okay in 2015, but he retired, leaving the Colts with ex-Green Bay backup Scott Tolzien and 2014 undrafted free agent Stephen Morris. Morris has never thrown an NFL pass and is still regarded as very raw, only going into his age 24 season. He was so raw last season that the Colts brought in street free agents Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman to play quarterback week 17 last season when Hasselbeck was hurt, with a possible playoff spot on the line.

Tolzien, meanwhile, struggled mightily in limited action as Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay, completing 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions, since going undrafted out of the University of Wisconsin in 2011. He spent most of the past 2 seasons as the #3 quarterback in Green Bay, after struggling so much in Rodgers’ absence in 2013. The Colts will pray that Luck stays healthy this season and long-term, but he’s got a very good chance to have a bounce back year and potentially take the Colts back to the playoffs.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the idea of keeping Luck healthy long-term, the Colts prioritized the offensive line this off-season. They only allowed 37 sacks last season, but have consistently given up pressure and hits at too high of a rate throughout Luck’s 4-year career and have always struggled to open up holes in the running game. The Colts used a 1st round pick on Alabama center Ryan Kelly, a 3rd round pick on Texas Tech offensive tackle Le’Raven Clark, and a 5th round pick on North Dakota State’s Joe Haeg. Kelly will be plugged in immediately as a starter and, at the very least, should help open up holes in the running game. Center has been a big problem position for the Colts for years and Kelly has a good chance to be one of the best centers in the league in 2-4 years.

Clark, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job at right tackle, as could Haeg. Right tackle Joe Reitz wasn’t bad last season, grading out above average on 950 snaps, primarily playing at right tackle, but also playing at left and right guard in a few games. Prior to 2015, he had graded out above average in limited action as a reserve in 2013 and 2014, on 149 and 277 snaps respectively. The Colts re-signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent, so they clearly value him as a starting option, but he’ll face competition and is not the long-term solution, going into his age 31 season.

At right guard, Hugh Thornton played the most snaps last season, but was benched this off-season for 2nd year player Denzelle Good. That was probably the right decision, considering Good flashed on 274 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2015, while Thornton has struggled in 3 seasons in the league. He’s made 32 starts in those 3 seasons, since being drafted by the Colts in the 3rd round in 2013, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including 60th out of 81 eligible in 2015. Good, meanwhile, has upside, but is far from proven and could also struggle. He was just a 7th round pick in last year’s draft.

Fortunately, things are a lot better on the left side of the offensive line. Left guard Jack Mewhort had a breakout 2nd season in the league, finishing 9th among guards on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t bad as a 2nd round rookie in 2014 either, grading out slightly above average, and has already made 30 starts in 2 seasons in the league. He’s seen some time at right tackle, but he seems to have settled in at left guard. He suffered a scare this off-season and it was originally reported he tore his ACL, but he seems to have escaped with a 2-4 week injury and is merely questionable for the start of the season. That’s obviously great news for the Colts.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo, meanwhile, has been the constant on this offensive line since the Colts drafted him in the 1st round in the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s made 73 of a possible 80 starts at left tackle since then and remains there again in 2016. Despite the struggles of the Colts’ offensive line over that time period, Castonzo has actually played pretty well. He’s been a top-36 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, finishing last season 20th and maxing out at 12th in 2014. It’s an improved offensive line, but one that still has problems on the right side.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Colts have had issues opening up holes on the ground over the past few seasons. It’s part of why they struggled running the ball in 2015, averaging 3.63 YPC, 31st in the NFL, but lead back Frank Gore is also very much to blame. Spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the San Francisco 49ers, Gore came over to the Colts last off-season on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. However, the aging back very much looked his age in 2015, turning 260 carries into just 967 yards and 6 touchdowns, an average of 3.75 YPC.

Gore’s 12,040 rushing yards rank 15th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 33 season with 2702 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 career carries. It’s also worth noting that Gore’s worst football came at the end of the season, which could be a sign that Gore is just out of gas. In the final 8 games of the season, he averaged 3.22 yards per carry on 140 carries, after averaging 4.30 yards per carry on 120 carries in the first 8 games of the season.

Even when he was struggling, the Colts kept giving him the lion’s share of the carries, as no other Colts running back had more than 31 carries. At the very least, Gore needs to be part of a timeshare at this stage in his career, but the Colts inexplicably did not do anything to upgrade the backup running back situation. Veteran journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman will compete with rookie undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson for the #2 running back job, likely meaning they plan for Gore to get another 250+ carries. That seems like a mistake and should limit their offense.

Turbin has rushed for 1127 yards and 1 touchdown on 281 carries in his career (4.01 YPC), while adding 50 catches for 450 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. Todman, meanwhile, has rushed for 472 yards and 3 touchdowns on 115 carries in his career (4.10 YPC), while adding 40 catches for 314 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. The Colts like Ferguson and, with Gore as old as he is, there’s a very good chance that Ferguson is seeing a significant role by late in the season. That would probably not be a good thing for the Colts, considering the entire league just let him go undrafted. He’s not the type of guy you want to be relying on behind an out-of-gas veteran and two mediocre journeymen.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

Frank Gore is one aging veteran that the Colts signed last off-season that didn’t work out. Another is wide receiver Andre Johnson, who the Colts signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, after he was released by divisional rival Houston. Like Gore, Johnson is a possible future Hall-of-Famer, but, like Gore, Johnson was an aging veteran who was out of gas in 2015. The Colts released him one-year and 7.5 million into that 3-year deal, ahead of his age 35 season in 2016.

Unlike with Gore, the Colts have a obvious internal replacement for him, as 2015 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett figures to have a much bigger role in his 2nd year in the league. Because of the addition of Johnson, Dorsett began the year as the #4 receiver and suffered a broken ankle mid-season that really hurt his chances of beating out Johnson for playing time, even as bad as Johnson was playing. Ultimately, Dorsett played just 215 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but he still has plenty of upside going into his 2nd year in the league.

Dorsett isn’t the only young wide receiver the Colts have, as Donte Moncrief was a 3rd round pick in 2014. Even with the additions of Johnson and Dorsett in the off-season, Moncrief played 836 snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, after flashing on 421 snaps as a rookie. Moncrief’s numbers weren’t great or anything, but part of that was because of the Colts’ quarterback situation and he still graded out above average for the 2nd straight season, finishing 40th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Moncrief could have his best year in the league. He and Dorsett will battle for the #2 job behind veteran TY Hilton, but Moncrief appears the clear favorite right now, pushing Dorsett into the #3 role.

Hilton is also coming off of a less than stellar statistical year, at least by his standards, as a result of the Colts’ quarterback situation. However, he still caught 69 passes for 1124 yards and 5 touchdowns. The fact that that’s a quiet year from him just shows you how good he is when he’s at his best. The 2012 3rd round pick has topped 1000+ yards in 3 straight seasons, maxing out with 82 catches for 1345 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014. He’s graded out 34th, 10th, and 17th among wide receivers in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. He was well worth the 5-year, 65 million dollar extension the Colts gave him last off-season, ahead of what would have been his contract year, and he could have another 1300+ yard year with Luck healthy in 2016.

Hilton isn’t the only pass catcher the Colts added in that 2012 draft (the same one in which they added Luck), as they used a 2nd round pick on tight end Coby Fleener and a 3rd round pick on tight end Dwayne Allen as well. Unlike Hilton, the Colts did not lock their two tight ends up ahead of their contract years. The Colts brought Allen back on a 4-year, 29.4 million dollar deal this off-season, but watched Fleener sign a 5-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Saints. It’s was always assumed that the Colts would not be able to re-sign both of them, but it’s very surprising that Allen got as much money as he did, considering he was coming off of a down year in 2015.

Allen was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked tight end as a rookie in 2012, their 9th ranked tight end in 2014, and had graded out above average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career prior to 2015, excelling as a run blocker at 6-3 265. However, he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past 3 seasons and injuries really seemed to take a toll on his play in 2015, as he fell to 62nd out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus. The Colts are obviously betting on a bounce back year and he definitely has bounce back potential if he can stay healthy. With Fleener gone, Jack Doyle will be the #2 tight end. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 341 snaps last season with Allen hurt. WIth a young, talented group of wide receivers, the Colts’ receiving corps is still solid despite losing Fleener.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

In addition to a significant drop-off offensively from 2014 to 2015, the Colts also saw a significant drop-off defensively from 2014 to 2015, falling from 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 14th. The fix on defense is not nearly as easy as the fix on offense is, as the Colts’ defense doesn’t have an Andrew Luck caliber player returning from injury to save them. Their drop-off from 2014 to 2015 was largely because this is an aging, veteran-led defense that had several players show significant decline from 2014 to 2015. With the focus of their draft being the offensive line, the Colts didn’t add much defensively through the draft and still have very few promising young defensive players.

One promising young player is 2015 3rd round pick Henry Anderson out of Stanford, who finished 12th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus on 453 snaps, before his promising rookie year was cut short by a torn ACL suffered in November, ending his season after 9 games. He’s reportedly not a lock to return by week 1 and might have to wait until his 3rd year in the league in 2017 to break out as an every down defensive end in the Colts 3-4, as he flashed the ability to do as a rookie.

Anderson is not the only rookie who played a significant role on the Colts’ defensive line in 2015, as 5th round pick David Parry played 657 snaps, primarily serving as a nose tackle in base packages at 6-1 308. Parry was not nearly as good as his former Stanford teammate Anderson though. In fact, he was one of the worst interior defensive linemen in the league last season, finishing 117th out of 123 eligible on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league, Parry will have plenty of competition for his job from 2014 undrafted free agent Zach Kerr, who flashed on 320 snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Hassan Ridgeway. The 6-1 326 pound Kerr has more of a traditional nose tackle’s build than Parry (6-1 308) or Ridgeway (6-3 303) and should be considered the early favorite at what should again be a position of weakness for the Colts on the nose.

Anderson is not the only Colts’ defensive lineman to be coming off of a significant injury either, as veteran 3-4 defensive end Arthur Jones is coming off of an ankle injury that cost him his entire 2015 season. Jones signed a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal with the Colts two off-seasons ago, but has been limited to just 9 games in 2 seasons by a variety of injuries. Jones also struggled mightily on 371 snaps in 2014 in the 9 games he did play, finishing 40th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. As a result, Jones had to take a 2 million dollar pay cut to keep his roster spot for 2016. Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, which is how he got such a big contract, but he’s graded out above average just once in 6 years in the league and isn’t going to get better, going into his age 30 season, coming off of a major injury. Making matters worse, he’s suspended for the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test.

With Anderson and Jones up in the air with injuries and/or suspension, expect veteran Kendall Langford to lead this defensive line in snaps again, after grading out above average on 851 snaps making all 16 starts in 2015. Langford hasn’t missed a game in 8 years in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2008, the longest active consecutive games streak by a defensive lineman. Langford has been an average starting defensive lineman more or less, grading out above average in 4 of 8 seasons in the league.

He’s spent 5 years of his career in a 3-4 and seems to be a better fit in that system, grading out above average in 3 of the 5 seasons in which he’s played 3-4 defensive end. He was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2009 and 2010 and finished 16th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2015. Going into his age 30 season, his best days are likely behind him, but he should have another solid season as a starter for a team that desperately needs him to. With Anderson and Jones dealing with injuries, Ridgeway, the 4th round rookie, could also see snaps at defensive end as a rookie. It’s a thin defensive line unless Anderson can come back healthy from his torn ACL.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts also have a trio of 30+ year old veterans at outside linebackers, as Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik Walden are going into their age 34, age 35, and age 31 seasons respectively. All three are also going in the final years of their contracts, so it’s surprising that the Colts didn’t use a higher pick on the position in the draft, just adding Maine’s Trevor Bates in the 7th round. 2014 6th round pick Jonathan Newsome flashed on 397 snaps as a rookie, but off-the-field issues limited him to 346 nondescript snaps in 2015 and he was let go this off-season, following a marijuana arrest. That leaves Bates as the only young edge player on the roster and he’s a clear #4 outside linebacker at the most.

Cole, Mathis, and Walden played 533, 558, and 796 snaps respectively in 2015 and should be around those snap totals again in 2015. Cole was the best of the bunch, grading out 34th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, but the other two graded out below average. Cole has graded out above average in all 9 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history and his 88.5 career sacks in 11 seasons in the league are 44th most all time, but he’s going into his age 34 season so the end is near for him. He’s likely going into his final season in Indianapolis and possibly his final season in the league.

Mathis has had a great career as well, as his 118 career sacks are 20th all-time and 5th among active players, giving him at least an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus history, but missed all of 2014 with a torn achilles and was not nearly the same in 2015. He’s also a year older than Cole, going into his age 35 season. Like Cole, he’s very possibly in his final season with the Colts and in the league.

Walden is the youngest of the trio and lead the position in snaps played last season, with Mathis and Cole best suited for situational work at this stage of their careers, but he’s also the worst of the trio and no spring chicken himself. He has never once graded out above average in 8 years in the league, since getting drafted by the Packers in the 6th round in 2008. He’s going into his age 31 season and is highly unlikely to be better going forward.

Starting middle linebacker D’Qwell Jackson is also in the over 30 club, as he’s going into his age 33 season. His age has really shown in recent years, as he’s graded out below average in 4 straight seasons, including 2015 season in which he finished 62nd out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 33 season in the league, Jackson simply isn’t a reliable starter anymore. Fellow starting middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman was easily the better of the two last season and was arguably the Colts’ best defensive player, finishing 2nd among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but he signed with the Bears as a free agent, leaving the Colts with a big hole to fill next to the aging Jackson.

Sio Moore is penciled in as the starter. He played just 69 snaps last season, but looked like a future star as a rookie in 2013, as the 3rd round pick finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. However, he struggled in 2014 and then fell out of favor with a new coaching staff in Oakland, which got him traded to the Colts last off-season. The Colts then moved him inside to middle linebacker and never played him, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential this season. It’s a weak linebacking corps overall though.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback Vontae Davis is the Colts’ best defensive player, but he had a down year last finishing, falling to 29th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, after finishing in the top-4 in both 2013 and 2014. He had bounce back potential going into 2015, as he’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league and is still only going into his age 27 season, but he’s expected to miss the first month or so of the season with an ankle injury, which forced the Colts to bring in veteran free agent Antonio Cromartie in mid-August.

With Davis injured, Antonio Cromartie figures to take over his starting job and play every down at cornerback opposite fellow free agent acquisition Patrick Robinson. Cromartie is not the same player he used to be though, going into his age 32 season, and looked done last season, finishing 84th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s also graded out below average in each of the past 3 seasons, a trend that figures to continue into 2016. There’s a reason he was available so late in the off-season. He’s a huge downgrade from Davis and makes this defense even older and less talented. They are going to have serious problems stopping anyone with Davis injured.

Patrick Robinson, meanwhile, comes over from San DIego on a very reasonable 3-year, 14 million dollar deal. A 2010 1st round pick, Robinson was largely a bust in 5 seasons in New Orleans, largely because of injuries, as he missed 22 games in those 5 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback in 2011, but that was not the norm for him in New Orleans, as he graded out above average just twice in 5 seasons in the league. However, in his one-year in San Diego, he played all 16 games (starting 10 of them) and finished 30th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s a talented player when healthy and a solid pickup at a position of need for the Colts, but he’ll be overmatched as the #1 cornerback to start the season.

Darius Butler remains as the slot cornerback, despite struggling mightily in 2015, grading out 86th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on 576 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s already going into his age 30 season, so I don’t expect him to be any better this season. He saw some action at safety earlier this off-season, so if Cromartie plays well enough in Davis’ absence, the Colts could move Butler to safety mid-season.

Speaking of safety, the Colts did use one high pick on their defense this year, adding Clemson safety TJ Green in the 2nd round. He might not play right away, but should push both Clayton Geathers and Mike Adams for starting roles. Geathers was a 4th round pick in 2015 who struggled on 271 snaps as a rookie, but he is expected to take over for departed free agent Dwight Lowery, who was solid in 2015. Adams, meanwhile, wasn’t bad in 2015 either, but he graded out slightly below average and is going into his age 35 season. Also going into the final year of his deal, this is likely to be Adams’ final season in Indianapolis and possibly in the league, with Green taking over as the starter in 2017, or possibly sooner. Adams is one of 7 projected week 1 starter over-30 on the Colts’ defense, a defense that figures to take a major step back in 2016 as a result of age and injury.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Colts won 8 games even though Andrew Luck missed half of last season, but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win more games this season with him healthy. Even with Luck injured, the passing game was not the problem for the Colts last season, as backup Matt Hasselbeck played admirably and did a good job managing the game in Luck’s absence. They had serious issues running the ball, issues that won’t improve with Frank Gore going into his age 33 season. They’re also missing top defensive player Vontae Davis for the first month of the season with injury on a defense that figures to take a major step backwards anyway because of age and the loss of top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency. They’ll win some shoot outs, but they’re not a lock to reclaim the AFC South.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, in terms of record, going just 5-27 in 2014 and 2015 combined. However, things are definitely looking up for them and they could become a factor in the playoff race once again this season. They won just 3 games last season, but 6 of their losses came by a touchdown or less and 4 of them came by a field goal or less, so they were coming close. They finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, which isn’t great, but it’s a little bit better than their record suggests.

Because of their record, they ended up with the #1 overall pick in the draft and were able to get a king’s ransom for it when the Rams decided they needed to have quarterback Jared Goff. Along with the #1 pick, they sent a 4th and 6th rounder to Los Angeles and got picks 15, 43, 45, and 76, along with a 1st and 3rd rounder in 2017. That will allow them to add a lot of young, cheap talent through the draft in 2016 and 2017. This comes after getting the #2 overall pick in 2015 and adding quarterback Marcus Mariota out of Oregon.

Mariota was promising as a rookie, despite the team’s record. Not only could the Titans have won a couple more games had a few plays gone the other way, they also could have won a couple more games had Mariota stayed healthy, as he missed essentially 5 games with injury. In those 5 games, they moved the chains at a mere 58.09% rate (losing all 5), as opposed to 72.78% in their other 11 games, actually above average. Mariota faced an easier slate of games than his backup, but still completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 7.62 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 252 yards and 2 additional touchdowns on 34 carries (7.41 YPC). He could easily be better in his 2nd year in the league and, if he can stay healthy, the Titans could have a pretty solid offense in 2016.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Obviously, it greatly increases Mariota’s chances of staying healthy if the Titans don’t lead the NFL in sacks allowed again, as they did in 2015, when they allowed 54. Some of that was the fault of the quarterbacks holding the ball too long, but the Titans also had major issues in pass protection. The Titans addressed the offensive line in the first round, moving back up to the 8th overall pick (sending the 16th pick, a 3rd round pick, and a 2017 2nd round pick to Cleveland to do so) and taking Michigan State offensive tackle Jack Conklin, who will be immediately plugged in at right tackle.

Even though the Titans allowed a lot of sacks as a whole, they didn’t actually get bad play at left tackle, where 2014 1st round pick Taylor Lewan flourished in his 2nd year in the league. After flashing in 6 starts as a rookie, Lewan started in all 15 games he played in 2015 and finished 12th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 3rd year in the league in 2016, Lewan’s best football could still be yet to come. He and Conklin are a pair of recent first round picks with very bright futures.

Along with right tackle, center and left guard were positions of weakness upfront for the Titans in 2015. The Titans addressed the center position in free agency by signing ex-Texans center Ben Jones. Jones has graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons he’s been in the league, since going in the 4th round in 2012, but is coming off of a career best 2015 season in which he finished 18th at his position. He also has the versatility to play guard, as he made his first 27 career starts at guard, before kicking inside to center in 2015. A collegiate center at the University of Georgia, the Titans plan to keep him there. He’s a capable starter and a noticeable upgrade.

The Titans did not add any left guards in free agency this off-season though, nor did they draft one until the 6th round, when they took Arkansas’s Sebastian Tretola. The Titans’ depth at the guard position got worse when veteran Byron Bell suffered a season ending ankle injury after the draft. Bell has never been a good offensive lineman, but he was capable last season at both right tackle and left guard. He likely would have been the favorite at left guard had he been healthy, so it was a little bit more than a minor loss. In his absence, 2nd year player Quinton Spain will start. Spain started the final 6 games of last season, but that doesn’t mean much, as he was merely the last option on a rotating door of mediocrity. The 2015 undrafted free agent didn’t show much on 383 snaps last season. Despite being a late round pick, Tretola could push him for snaps down the stretch.

Rounding out the offensive line is right guard Chance Warmack, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Warmack hasn’t lived up to his potential yet, finishing a career high 40th among guards on Pro Football Focus in 2015. He could be better in 2016, still only going into his age 25 season and possessing plenty of upside, but he’s been underwhelming throughout his career thus far. He’s part of an offensive line that’s still very much a work in progress, but they’re young and improving. They also added two new starters this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Titans also added at the running back position this off-season, much needed after last season. At first glance, they weren’t bad on the ground last season, averaging 4.00 yards per carry, 17th in the NFL, but much of that was because of quarterback Marcus Mariota, who averaged 7.41 yards per carry. Outside of him, the Titans averaged just 3.66 yards per carry and  that’s despite the fact that passing down back Dexter McCluster averaged 4.49 yards per carry. If you exclude McCluster, who is no longer even with the team, they averaged just 3.50 yards per carry.

Early down types like Antonio Andrews, David Cobb, and Bishop Sankey averaged 3.64, 2.81, and 4.11 yards per carry respectively on 143, 52, and 47 carries respectively, meaning they really needed to add better runners this off-season. The Titans attempted to do so by trading for veteran running back DeMarco Murray and using a 2nd round pick on Alabama running back Derrick Henry. Murray led the league in rushing in 2014, but that was largely because of the Cowboys’ dominant offensive line and his high usage. He finished 5th among running backs in 2014, which is still good, but he fell to 67th out of 69 eligible in 2015 in his first and only year in Philadelphia, after signing a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season.

While many expected a drop off for Murray, just how much he dropped off is shocking. Even though 2014 was easily the best season of his career, he wasn’t bad in the 3 years prior to 2014, after going in the 3rd round in 2011. From 2011-2013, he rushed for 2681 yards and 15 touchdowns on 542 carries (4.95 YPC) and added 114 catches for another 784 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. He’s unlikely to be that good this season because he doesn’t have Dallas’ offensive line blocking for him anymore, but he’s an obvious bounce back candidate in his new home in Tennessee.

Credit the Eagles for getting anything for him and not having to pay him 7 million guaranteed in 2016, but also credit the Titans for getting him for next to nothing and convincing him to sign a much discounted deal that will only pay him 25.5 million over the next 4 years, rather than 32.9 million, as he was originally scheduled to make (the remaining 7.4 million can be earned back through incentives). The upside for Murray is he’ll be guaranteed 12 million over the next 2 seasons, so it’s an increase in guaranteed money for him.

Even after adding Murray, the Titans still used a 2nd round pick on Derrick Henry, as I mentioned before, a luxury they could afford after trading away the #1 pick for a king’s ransom. Considering how bad Murray looked last season and the fact that he’s missed 12 games in 5 years in the league with injury, it’s not a bad idea to have an insurance policy like Henry. How much work Henry sees will be dependant on how Murray runs the ball this season and whether or not he’s healthy, but those two should split the early down work. If Murray struggles, it’s definitely not out of the question that Henry surpasses him as the lead back by season’s end. It’s a much improved group of backs.

Grade: B-

Wide Receiver

The Titans also added at wide receiver this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Rishard Matthews to a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal. Matthews, a 7th round pick in 2012, made just 6 career starts in his first 3 years in the league, but won the starting job in 2015 with the Dolphins, ahead of higher profile players like Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Greg Jennings. Matthews started all 11 games he played in 2015 (he missed the final 5 games of the season with broken ribs) and caught 43 passes for 662 yards and 4 touchdowns. That extrapolates to 63 catches for 962 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, on a Miami offense that was otherwise pretty bad. As a result, he finished 35th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a one year wonder, but the Titans didn’t pay him much, so he has a real chance to be a value signing. He’s the only Titan wide receiver who is locked into a role and could lead the position in targets.

Kendall Wright has plenty of starting experience, making 37 starts in 55 career games in 4 years in the league, since going in the first round in 2012, but he’s not locked into a starting job. Wright seemingly had a breakout year in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, catching 94 passes for 1079 yards and 2 touchdowns and finishing 18th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but he’s caught just 93 passes for 1123 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2 seasons since. He’s graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, with the exception coming in 2013. He also missed 6 games with injury last season. If he can stay healthy, he has some bounce back potential, but that’s far from a guarantee. He’s likely guaranteed to at least be the slot receiver, but he has a shot to keep a starting job.

Second year player Dorial Green-Beckham looked like a starter going into the off-season, after flashing on 580 snaps as a rookie, but struggled this off-season, which got him benched and ultimately shipped to the Eagles for a reserve offensive lineman, a very strange move from Tennessee’s perspective. Tajae Sharpe, who had a strong off-season, is expected to be one of the Titans’ top-3 wide receivers with Green-Beckham gone, playing outside opposite Matthews in 3-wide receiver sets. Despite looking good thus far, he’s a mere 5th round rookie, so it’s hard to have high expectations for him.

Tight end Delanie Walker was easily the Titans’ best pass catcher in 2015, catching 94 passes (most among tight ends) for 1088 yards (3rd most among tight ends) and 6 touchdowns. It helped that he received 10 more targets than any other tight end in the league, something that’s unlikely to continue with improved wide receivers around him in 2016, but the all-around talented 6-2 248 pound tight end finished 2nd among tight ends overall on Pro Football Focus in 2015, after coming in 7th in 2014.

He’s been a late bloomer for the Titans, after spending most of his career as a #2 tight end in San Francisco. The past 2 seasons are the first two seasons in his career in which he’s graded out above average as a pass catcher since 2008, when he played just 143 snaps. He’s caught 157 passes for 1978 yards and 10 touchdowns over that two year span. He’ll see fewer targets and his age is becoming a concern going into his age 32 season, but with Mariota healthy, he could post solid numbers again on an offense that’s overall looking up. He should also get more red zone opportunities. Veteran #2 tight end Anthony Fasano remains as the #2 tight end. He’s a solid blocker, but little else, as he heads into his age 32 season. Fortunately, he won’t have to see a ton of action. Like the rest of this offense, the Titans’ receiving corps is looking up.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Titans also added to their defensive line this off-season, drafting Penn State defensive tackle Austin Johnson in the 2nd round. The big 6-4 314 pounder could start at nose tackle immediately. He just needs to beat out incumbent Al Woods, a smaller player at 6-4 307 who struggled on 356 snaps last season and who has graded out below average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league, since getting drafted in the 4th round in 2010. The Titans gave him a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar contract this off-season to keep him in Tennessee, ahead of his age 29 season, but Johnson is the future and likely the present at the position, while Woods will probably slot in as a reserve at all 3 spots on Tennessee’s 3-man defensive line.

Whichever player wins the job will play in base packages in between incumbent starting defensive ends DaQuan Jones and Jurrell Casey. Jones, a 4th round pick in 2014, had a breakout 2015 season in his first year as a starter. Jones played just 143 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but played 679 snaps in 16 starts in 2015 and finished 30th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, well above average. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and his best football is likely still to come.

Casey is far more proven and much better, as he’s been quietly dominant on some bad Titan teams in recent years. Casey has played both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end over the past 4 years and has finished in the top-8 at his position in all 4 years. Only going into his age 27 season and his 6th year in the league, Casey is in the prime of his career. The Titans made a wise decision locking him up for 36 million over 4 years two off-seasons ago, considering a comparable player like Malik Jackson got 90 million over 6 years from division rival Jacksonville this off-season.

Casey and Jones make a strong bookend in base packages, while top reserve Karl Klug is a solid player as well, grading out above average as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. The 6-3 278 pounder played 331 snaps as primarily a sub package rusher in 2015 and should have a similar role this season (his career high is 435 snaps in a season). He complements Jones well as the 6-4 322 pound Jones is best against the run and plays primarily in base packages; 376 of his 679 snaps in 2015 were on run plays. The Titans were smart to keep Klug on a 2-year, 3.8 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent. It’s an underrated defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Titans also have a deep bunch at outside linebacker, especially after using a 2nd round pick on Clemson’s Kevin Dodd. They had major depth issues at the position last season, which became a big problem when starter Derrick Morgan missed the final 6 games of the season with injury. Morgan had a down year in general too, finishing just 49th out of 110 eligible edge defenders, above average, but not what we’re used to from him. He finished 5th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012, 11th in 2013, and 8th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014. Still only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back if he can stay healthy this year.

Brian Orakpo remains as the starter opposite him. He was much better than Morgan last season, finishing 25th among edge defenders. Most importantly, he was healthier than Morgan, playing all 16 games. That’s huge for Orakpo, considering injuries had limited him to a combined 24 games in the previous 3 seasons. As a result of his injury history, the Titans were able to get him for 32 million over 4 years in free agency last off-season, well worth it if he stays healthy. He was even better in 2011 and 2013 than he was last season, finishing 7th and 4th respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers in those two seasons. Prior to 2015, those were his last 2 healthy seasons. His injury history is still a concern, especially as he heads into his age 30 season, but he should still be a major asset for this team as long as he can stay on the field.

Inside, Avery Williamson remains one of the two starters. A steal of a 5th round pick, Williamson has made 27 starts in 2 years in the league. He was much better as a rookie than in his 2nd year in the league, ranking 17th among middle linebackers as a rookie in 2014, but falling all the way to 59th among 97 eligible linebackers in 2015. Even in a disappointing 2015 season, he still wasn’t terrible and a bounce back year is certainly a possibility. He’s locked in as a starter regardless.

At the other middle linebacker spot, veteran holdover Wesley Woodyard will compete with veteran free agent acquisition Sean Spence. Woodyard, an experienced veteran with 68 career starts, split snaps with free agent departure Zach Brown in 2015, but was fantastic in limited action, finishing 9th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 499 snaps. Purely playing in a base package role, Woodyard excelled against the run and wasn’t terrible in coverage either. Woodyard should at least keep the base package job and could be an every down player in 2016, as he’s been before in his career.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Woodyard has graded out below average in 3 of the last 5 seasons though, since he became a starter, so expectations shouldn’t be too high for him. Spence isn’t very good either, but the Titans paid him 2.5 million on a 1-year deal, which isn’t chump change. He previously played under ex-Steelers/now-Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh. Spence played 510 snaps for LeBeau’s Steeler defense in 2014, but graded out 41st out of 60 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. He only saw 270 snaps in 2015 and didn’t play well on those snaps either. He shouldn’t be anything more than a backup. Woodyard is a superior player. He’s also arguably the worst starter in a linebacking corps that looks strong going into 2016, especially with Morgan healthy and Dodd coming in.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The problem area on defense in 2015 for the Titans was the secondary, as the Titans finished 24th in rate of moving the chains allowed despite pretty decent front 7 play. Injuries to starting cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox left the Titans incredibly thin at cornerback for most of the season. McCourty missed 12 games, while Cox missed 3 games. They played in the same game just twice all season and, even when McCourty played, he was not healthy, as groin problems hampered him all season.

Prior to 2014, McCourty was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. From 2010-2013, he finished 20th, 8th, 6th, and 11th respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. A lot of that had to do with his strong play against the run, but he still graded out 15th, 32nd, 23rd, and 17th respectively in those 4 seasons in coverage grade (all above average) and the fact that he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL against the run in those 4 seasons was just a cherry on top. However, in 2014, he graded out below average for the first time since his rookie year in 2009 and then he had last season’s miserable year. There’s still bounce back potential with him if he can stay healthy in 2015, but, going into his age 29 season, two years removed from his last good season, it’s also very possible his best days are now behind him.

Cox was a lot better than McCourty in 2015 when he was healthy, grading out just slightly below average. He’s been a solid cornerback whenever he’s been on the field throughout his career, including a rookie year in which he graded out above average in 2010 and a strong 2014 season in which he finished 35th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Off-the-field issues derailed his career early, as he played just 249 snaps from 2011-2013, but he’s stayed out of trouble for a few years and has made the most of his second chance on the field. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

With all their injuries, Coty Sensabaugh actually led the team in snaps played by a cornerback with 1005. He was signed by the Rams this off-season, but he really didn’t play well last season, so he won’t be a huge loss. However, the player the Titans signed to replace him, Brice McCain, is not really any better. McCain finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in 2015 and has graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2009. Already going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to be any better this season. It was weird that the Titans did not address the cornerback position prior to the 5th round, when they drafted Southern Utah’s Leshaun Sims. At one point, prior to the Rams trading up to 1, it looked like the Titans might take Florida State cornerback Jalen Ramsey #1 overall.

The Titans also had a whole at safety to address in the draft and they did so fairly early, taking Middle Tennessee State’s Kevin Byard in the 3rd round. Byard is unlikely to begin the season as the starter, but could see playing time down the stretch. Veteran Rashad Johnson is expected to start, after signing a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal this off-season. Johnson has made 51 career starts in 7 years in the league, but was primarily a reserve for most of his career, as 30 of those starts have come in the last 2 seasons. He’s struggled in both seasons, finishing 77th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2014 and 50th out of 89 eligible in 2015. He’d be best off back in a reserve role and he’s unlikely to improve going into his age 30 season.

At the other safety spot, Da’Norris Searcy was easily the Titans’ best defensive back last season, in the first year of a 4-year, 23.75 million dollar deal. It was a risky deal at the time because Searcy had never played more than 753 snaps in a season and had just 23 career starts. However, Searcy was Pro Football Focus 18th ranked safety on 666 snaps in 2014 and jumped to 12th in 2015 on a career high 886 snaps. Only going into his age 28 season, the 2011 4th round pick has put together back-to-back strong seasons and looks poised for a 3rd. He headlines a secondary that could be better in 2016 if it can stay healthier.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Titans have won just 5 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons, but they’re closer than you’d think. Injuries kept them down on both sides of the ball last season, including 5 games missed by quarterback Marcus Mariota, but they still came close in a lot of their losses (4 losses by a field goal or less, 6 losses by a touchdown or less). If Mariota can stay healthy and take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league, it’ll be a big boost for this team. They’ve also done a good job improving the talent around Mariota, adding a couple solid free agents and adding a great return for the #1 pick in the draft, which allowed them to add a lot of young talent this year and gives them a stockpile of picks for next year. A young team with 23 million in cap space unused going into the season, the Titans might be a year away from being a real threat, but figure to be in the mix to win the wide open AFC South for at least most of the season.

Prediction: 8-8 1st in AFC South

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Kansas City Chiefs 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There was a time last season when the Chiefs won 11 straight games, the final 10 games of the regular season and a victory over the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. However, that came after a 1-5 start seemed to end their season. The Chiefs rallied to make the playoffs but ultimately lost in the divisional round to the New England Patriots. What changed after the first 6 weeks for the Chiefs? Well, the biggest change is simply the schedule. In those first 6 games, the Chiefs took on 5 eventual playoff teams, going 1-4 in those 5 games. The rest of the way they faced just 3 other playoff teams, only one more in the regular season, going 2-1 in those 3 games.

Overall, they were 3-5 against playoff teams last season, but two of those wins came against a Houston team that was arguably the worst team in the NFL to make the playoffs and the other came against a Denver team that was playing with a very hobbled Peyton Manning at quarterback. In their other 10 games, they went 9-1, only losing by 1 to the Bears, the only sub .500 team to beat them last season. Simply put, this was a slightly above average team that beat everyone they were better than and lost to everyone who was better than them. That didn’t really change all season; the only things that did was their schedule and their record.

Kansas City’s defense was their noticeably better unit, as they finished 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but just 14th in rate of moving the chains. Their offense wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good either and it was their defense that often carried them. This average offense unsurprisingly was led by one of the most average quarterbacks in the NFL, Alex Smith. Smith, a late bloomer as the #1 overall pick in 2005, had a breakout year in 2011 in Jim Harbaugh’s first year with the 49ers, finishing 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. However, he’s largely been a very average quarterback since, grading out 19th, 20th, 16th, and 18th among quarterbacks from 2012-2015 respectively.

Smith has definitely shed the system quarterback label, having success in both Jim Harbaugh’s and Andy Reid’s offenses. Part of that is the fact that he’s had two strong offensive minds as his head coaches and has been allowed to play in systems that best fit his skill set, but Smith deserves a lot of the credit too. Going into his age 32 season, he is who he is at this point, so he’s never going to be someone that can carry a team, but you can win with him if you surround him with enough talent. Smith’s numbers have improved in every season he’s been in Kansas City, as he completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions last season, but that’s largely a result of improved talent around him.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Smith now has a pair of big-time receiving options to throw to. That wasn’t the case in his first year in Kansas City, when running back Jamaal Charles led the team with 693 receiving yards and a washed up Dwayne Bowe was their best wide receiver. Those days are gone now. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was acquired on a 5-year, 55 million dollar contract last off-season, following a 2014 season in which no Kansas City wide receiver scored a touchdown, while tight end Travis Kelce is homegrown, drafted in the 3rd round in 2013. The Chiefs kept Kelce on a huge extension this off-season, worth 46 million over 5 years. Both are expensive, but they’re also both so valuable to this team.

Maclin led the way with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He wasn’t the deep threat he was in 2014 with the Eagles, when he averaged 15.5 yards per catch in Chip Kelly’s offense, but that was always going to change, as the Chiefs simply are not an offense that pushes the ball downfield often; that’s not Smith’s strength as a passer. He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but caught a career high 87 passes and finished 25th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Maclin’s career had a disappointing start, as he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 4 years in the league from 2009-2012 and then missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he’s bounced back very well from that torn ACL, playing the best football of his career. He’s missed just 1 game with injury since and has graded out 14th and 25th respectively among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and 2015.

Kelce’s career also got off to a rough start, as he missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury. That knee injury, which required microfracture surgery, actually limited him into 2014. Though he led the Chiefs in receiving that year, catching 67 passes for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns, he did so on just 688 snaps, as the Chiefs had him on a snap count all season. He finished the 2014 season 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run by a tight end, only behind Rob Gronkowski, and, showing strong run blocking as well, finished as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked tight end.

In 2015, he ditched the snap count. He wasn’t as good on a per snap basis in 2015 as he was in 2014, as he barely surpassed his 2014 receiving numbers, catching 72 passes for 872 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite playing significantly more snaps than he did in 2014 (923). His run blocking also was not nearly as good as it was in 2014 and, overall, he finished just 21st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus (12th in pure pass catching grade). Still, he’s one of the better tight ends in the NFL and should have somewhat of a bounce back year this season. It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t missed a game in 2 years, so his early career knee problems seem well behind him. The Chiefs were wise to lock him up long-term and he has an outside shot at 1000+ yards in 2016.

The issue is that the Chiefs are still really thin in the receiving corps after Maclin and Kelce. No other Chiefs receiver had more than 451 yards last season. Albert Wilson, the #2 receiver, had 35 catches for 451 yards and 2 touchdowns and their next leading receiver was running back Charcandrick West, who caught 20 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown. Wilson struggled as the #2 receiver, finishing 75th out of 121 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but #3 and #4 receivers Jason Avant and Chris Conley were even worse, finishing 81st and 87th respectively on 345 and 369 snaps respectively.

Wilson flashed on 223 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2014, but proved to be overstretched as a starting receiver last season. The 5-9 200 pounder does his best work on the slot and the Chiefs would probably prefer him as the 3rd receiver, but they might not have much of a choice. They drafted Conley in the 3rd round last year, with the intention of him becoming a starting receiver, but he struggled in limited action as a rookie, so his starting days could be at least another year off. Still, he’s the heavy favorite for the #3 receiver job, as the Chiefs really lack depth at the wide receiver position. Raw 5th round rookie Tyreke Hill is probably the #4 receiver going into week 1.

The Chiefs also have depth problems at tight end, where Demetrius Harris struggled in his first since as the #2 tight end, catching just 7 passes and grading out 60th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 339 snaps. Prior to last season, Harris, a 2013 undrafted free agent, had played just 70 career snaps, so the odds of him becoming significantly better in his 2nd year in the role are slim. The Chiefs’ receiving corps is a lot better than it was two years ago thanks to Kelce and Maclin, but plenty of depth issues remain.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Arguably the most surprising part of the Chiefs’ turnaround last season is they did it despite losing Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL week 5. Obviously their schedule got easier from that point on, but the fact remains that the Chiefs were able to run the ball effectively last season even without Jamaal Charles, finishing the year 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry with 4.69. Charles’ average, for comparison, was 5.13. Charles ran better, faced tougher competition in his 5 games, and added 21 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown in his 5 games, but last season proved that the Chiefs have tremendous depth at the running back position.

Because of that and the fact that Charles is going into his age 30 season, coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career, there was some talk that the Chiefs would try to trade Charles this off-season. His 2016 salary (6 million) is pretty reasonable, so they ultimately decided to keep the running back whose 5.47 career yards per carry average is still the best all-time by a running back in the modern era. Charles will go back into the starting lineup, but should see much more frequent breaks, especially early in the season, given his age, injury history, and the fact that the Chiefs know they can trust their other running backs in critical situations too. Charles had 320 touches in 2012, 329 touches in 2013, and was on a 294 touch pace last season (he dealt with lingering injuries in 2014 that held him to 246 touches). Those 300+ touch seasons are likely a thing of the past for him.

However, he still could be an effective weapon for the Chiefs on around 250 touches (200 carries and 50 receptions). He also still should play the vast majority of the passing down snaps, as he’s easily their 3rd best receiver behind Maclin and Kelce, catching 131 passes in 35 games in 3 years since Andy Reid came to town; that might have been where he was most missed last season. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season in which he did not play enough snaps to qualify, Charles has graded out 4th, 1st, 16th, 2nd, and 13th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and then finished last season 17th on 267 snaps before the injury. There are serious questions about his effectiveness going forward given his age and injury history, but Charles at 80%-90% is still a lot better than most backs.

Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware will compete for the backup job behind Charles. West had more carries, but turned those 160 carries into just 634 yards (3.96 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. Ware, meanwhile, came on down the stretch and rushed for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 carries (5.60 YPC). Ware also finished higher on Pro Football Focus, grading out 21st while West finished 41st. The two running backs combined for just 3 career carries prior to last season, so they’re last season is really all we have to evaluate them on.

Ware was easily the better player and should be considered the heavy favorite to backup on Charles, especially on early downs as Ware does struggle as a pass catcher. West should also have a role, but it’ll be a smaller one. Even though they finished last season 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry, they could be even better on the ground this season with Charles back, though it’s worth noting Ware and West are both one-year wonders. They still have arguably the league’s best group of running backs though.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Part of the reason why the Chiefs weren’t able to really address their receiving corps this off-season is they had a lot of pending free agents, a lot of needs to fill, and lost their 3rd round pick for having illegal communication with Jeremy Maclin when he was an Eagle, before he signed with the Chiefs. The Chiefs didn’t really lose much at any of the offensive skill positions, but they did have some losses on the offensive line and they had 5 defensive starters set to hit free agency (which I’ll get into later).

The three players the Chiefs lost on the offensive line this season are offensive tackle Donald Stephenson (signed with the Broncos), guard Jeff Allen (signed with the Texans), and guard Ben Grubbs (still unsigned, but expected to retire ahead of his age 32 season, after suffering a significant neck injury down the stretch last season). Those 3 played 555, 429, and 463 snaps respectively last season. The Stephenson loss doesn’t really hurt, as he really struggled last season, but Grubbs and Allen were both starting caliber players when in the lineup. Allen was actually Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked guard last season, landing him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal from the Texans.

Fortunately, the Chiefs add a free agent offensive lineman who is better than any of those three, signing Mitchell Schwartz to a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal. He was the only real external free agent signing the Chiefs made, but he’ll be very valuable for them. He’s only ever played right tackle, but he’s made all 64 starts in 4 years in the league, since getting drafted in the 2nd round in the Browns in 2012, and has graded out 19th, 30th, 11th, and 6th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively. Arguably the best right tackle in the NFL, Schwartz is immediately the Chiefs’ best offensive lineman.

Eric Fisher remains as the left tackle. Fisher was the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but looked like a massive bust through his first 2 seasons in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 at right tackle and then 72nd out of 84 eligible in 2014 at left tackle. Fisher was better in 2015, though still not the player the Chiefs were expecting he’d be by now when they took him first overall. He graded out slightly above average and finished 36th among offensive tackles.

Given that they gave him a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension with 2 years left on his rookie deal this off-season, the Chiefs will obviously be hoping he takes another leap forward in 2016, but I’m skeptical. They should be happy if he plays competently again, given how bad he was to start his career. That contract figures to be an overpay, as he’s now the 3rd highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no urgency for the move and the Chiefs are paying for something he’s never proven.

Along with Fisher, the Chiefs have another capable young starting offensive lineman at center, where 2015 2nd round pick Mitch Morse started 15 games as a rookie last season. The University of Missouri product transitioned very smoothly from his collegiate position of offensive tackle inside to center, grading out above average and finishing the season 15th among centers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league in 2016, he could be even better and he has a promising future.

The big issue upfront for the Chiefs is guard, where they are really thin after losing Allen and Grubbs. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif remains as the starter at right guard, where he made 13 starts last season, but he didn’t play well, grading out 62nd among 81 eligible guards. The Chiefs’ coaching staff is really high on him, but he’s yet to show it in game action, not playing a snap as a 6th round rookie in 2014, and then struggled in his first year as a starter in 2015. With no other real option at the position, LDT is locked in here.

Left guard is the only starting job up for grabs on the Chiefs offensive line, as Zach Fulton, who struggled on 406 snaps last season, will compete with 4th round rookie Parker Ehinger for the starting job. Fulton is the favorite, but the fact that Ehinger has a chance to win the job as a 4th round rookie tells you a lot about Fulton and his abilities. The 2014 6th round pick has made 22 starts in 2 years in the league, though largely out of desperation, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2014 and, though he was better in 2015, it wasn’t by much, as he still graded out below average overall. Whoever wins this starting job, left guard should be a position of weakness. Depth on the offensive line is also a big concern.

Adding Schwartz does help in a big way and the Chiefs should have Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together next season, something they have never really had for an extended period of time. Those four players should all be in my top-200 players for 2016 (which will be released at the end of the off-season) and, despite major holes in the receiving corps and at guard, the talent is there for this offense to be better in 2016, even if they’re still far from dominant on that side of the ball.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs had 5 defensive starters who were free agents this off-season. They didn’t really add any free agents to their defense, but the Chiefs did a good job keeping their talent, re-signing 4 of those 5 players, including defensive lineman Jaye Howard, who they kept on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. That’s a good value for him. The 6-3 301 pounder can play anywhere on the Chiefs’ 3-man defensive line, including nose tackle. After not playing much in his first 2 seasons in the league, Howard a 2012 4th round pick by the Seahawks, has played 449 and 752 snaps in 2014 and 2015 respectively, grading out above average in both seasons, including 24th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. A blossoming young defensive lineman, I expected him to be a much hotter commodity on the open market.

Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey also remain as the other two starters on this defensive line. Despite having off-season back surgery, Poe missed just 1 game with injury last season (just his 2nd missed game in 4 years in the NFL) and led the Chiefs defensive line in snaps for the 4th straight year, since the Chiefs drafted him 11th overall in 2012. He led the defensive line with 757 in 2012, 1004 in 2013, 966 in 2014, and then 759 last season. The 6-3 347 pounder isn’t a dominant defensive lineman, but his versatility, durability, and stamina are very uncommon for a player of his size. He’s also a valuable player who the Chiefs don’t want take off the field very often, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, finishing 11th among defensive tackles in 2013, 39th among defensive tackles in 2014, and then 32nd among interior defenders last season.

Bailey was the worst of the 3 starters, but he certainly wasn’t bad, finishing 51st among interior defenders and grading out above average. Bailey flashed as a reserve early in his career, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons from 2011-2013, after going in the 3rd round in 2011, but struggled in his first season as a starter in 2014, grading out 33rd out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Bailey was improved in his 2nd year as a starter though and goes into 2016 as a capable starting defensive end.

While the Chiefs re-signed Howard, they did lose Mike DeVito. DeVito wasn’t one of those aforementioned 5 starters, but he was a valuable reserve who graded out above average on 293 snaps last season. He retired this off-season, ahead of his age 32 season. Still, Howard was obviously more important to keep and the Chiefs used a 2nd round by on Chris Jones out of Mississippi State to replace DeVito. He’ll provide depth across the defensive line as a rookie at 6-6 310 and could be a long-term replacement for Poe, if the Chiefs are unable to re-sign him long-term. Poe will be a free agent next off-season. Jones was a borderline first round prospect in a loaded defensive tackle class so it was a good pick by the Chiefs. For now, Poe is still here on a defensive line that has 3 talented starters and a promising rookie reserve.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs only lost one defensive starter through free agency. However, they did suffer a potentially huge loss from an injury, as outside linebacker Justin Houston’s status for the 2016 season is very much up in the air after a partially torn ACL suffered this off-season. This injury was suffered in February and he was given a 6-12 month timeframe, which means he could be back just in time for week 1, or miss the entire season; it’s really up in the air, which is very bad news for the Chiefs.

When healthy, Houston is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. A 2011 3rd round pick, Houston graded out 13th, 4th, 1st, 1st among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus from 2011-2014 respectively and then finished last season 2nd at the position. Injuries are the only thing that’s ever slowed him down, as he’s missed 10 games with injury over the past 3 season and figures to miss at least a few more this season. His status will definitely be one to monitor, but the smart money is probably on him going on the PUP list and missing at least the first 6 weeks of the season.

Dee Ford is the obvious replacement for Houston, as he started the final 5 games of the season in Houston’s absence last season, when Houston was out with a knee injury. Houston returned for the playoffs, but was nowhere near 100% and then needed that surgery this off-season, so it’ll be back to Ford. Ford was drafted in the first round in 2014, a surprising pick because the Chiefs didn’t have an immediate need for an edge rusher, but it made some sense with Tamba Hali getting up there in age. The Chiefs re-signed Hali this off-season because he’s still going strong and because of Houston’s health, but Ford should still get an opportunity to start games in his 3rd year in the league. Thus far, his career has been disappointing, as he played just 122 snaps as a rookie and then finished last season 104th among 110 eligible edge defenders on 480 snaps.

As I mentioned, the Chiefs brought back Tamba Hali (one of those aforementioned 5 starters) this off-season. He’ll start opposite Ford until Houston returns and will need to continue playing at a high level. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in 2009, including 13th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014 and 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers last season, but is heading into his age 33 season, so he’s far from a guarantee to continue playing at a high level. With Hali aging and Houston injured, the Chiefs will need a breakout year from Ford, but they are unlikely to get it, as Ford hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a #3 outside linebacker thus far in his career.

Along with Tamba Hali, the Chiefs also re-signed middle linebacker Derrick Johnson this off-season. Like Hali, Johnson is an aging player who is still playing at a high level. Despite missing all of 2014 with a torn achilles, Johnson still played at a high level in 2015, playing every down and finishing 3rd among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. That’s been par for the course for him whenever he’s been healthy, as he was a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013. Aside from 2014’s torn achilles, Johnson has missed just 1 game with injury over the past 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 34 season, so, like with Hali, the end could be near, but the Chiefs were smart to lock him up on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal.

Josh Mauga was the other starting middle linebacker last season and played well against the run, but he’s out for the season with an injury, which pushes 2nd year player Ramik Wilson into the starting lineup. Wilson struggled on 128 snaps as a 4th rookie and doesn’t seem ready for a starting job, but the Chiefs frequently play a 3rd safety down around the line of scrimmage as a essentially 2nd linebacker in sub packages, so Wilson will only see about half the snaps as purely a two-down base package player. It’s still a strong linebacker group, but one whose performance relies heavily on Justin Houston being healthy and aging linebackers Hali and Johnson keeping up a high level of performance.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned the Chiefs frequently use 3 safeties (along with 3 cornerbacks) in sub packages against 3-wide receiver sets. In this scenario, it was frequently Husain Abdullah, the 3rd safety, playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a linebacker. However, Abdullah retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 31 season. Like DeVito, the Chiefs will miss Abdullah in certain situations. Abdullah was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked safety on 434 snaps last season. 2014 undrafted free agent Daniel Sorenson is expected to replace him. The 6-2 207 pounder as adequate size, but is completely unproven and struggled on 240 snaps last season.

Eric Berry and Ron Parker remain as the top-2 safeties, after both made all 16 starts last season. Berry was a free agent this off-season, but the Chiefs kept him on the franchise tag. It’s a borderline miracle that Berry made all 16 starts last season, after his 2014 season was cut short by a cancer diagnosis in November of 2014. Berry was healthy and ready for training camp by July of 2015 and had arguably the best season of his career last season, finishing 6th among safeties on Pro Football Focus and winning the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He was well worth the franchise tag, though it’s concerning that he did not report until late August. We’ll see how his durability is early in the season. He’s not a one year wonder, as he finished 3rd among safeties in 2013, but he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career.

Parker, meanwhile, also had the best season of his career, after struggling in the first season of significant action in his career in 2014. Parker actually graded out above average in 2015 (40th overall among safeties) and should continue to be a capable starting defensive back in 2016. He played both safety and cornerback last season, though it’s unclear if he will continue doing that next season, as the Chiefs also lost #4 safety Tyvon Branch to free agency this off-season. Branch is a capable situational player who played 428 snaps last season.

Losing Abdullah, Branch, and DeVito this off-season, along with Houston’s injury really hurts this defense. On top of that, the Chiefs lost starting cornerback Sean Smith to the Raiders, easily their biggest off-season loss, as he’s been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL over the past two seasons. For that reason, Parker may continue playing slot cornerback in sub packages, with a 4th safety like Jamell Fleming coming on the field. Fleming is an underwhelming option though, as he’s never played well throughout his entire career, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 by the Cardinals; he struggled mightily on 157 snaps last season and is no lock to even make the final roster.

Most likely, Parker will be a full-time safety in 2016 and the Chiefs well need to find capable cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is locked into one starting spot, after grading out slightly above average in 16 starts as a rookie. He tied for the league lead with 8 interceptions last season and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year, but that was largely because he got thrown on so often opposite Smith. He also gave up his fair share of big plays, which the interception number doesn’t show. Still, it was a strong rookie year and, anyway you look at it, he has a bright future and has a good chance to be better in 2016.

Everything else after that is completely up for grabs. Phillip Gaines, Steven Nelson, Kei’Varae Russell, Kenneth Acker, and Eric Murray will compete for playing time and roster spots. Gaines is probably the favorite for the starting job, as he made 3 starts in 3 games last season, before going down for the year with a torn ACL. He’s certainly not locked into the starting job though, as the 2014 3rd round pick is coming off of a major injury and has only played 545 snaps in 2 years in the NFL.

Acker also has a little bit of experience, making 13 starts in 2015 with the 49ers in the first significant action of his career, but finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks, which got him traded to the Chiefs for a late round pick in mid-August. He’s not a lock for the final roster. Gaines and Acker have far more experience than the other 3 though, as Nelson played just 53 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, while Russell and Murray are both rookies, drafted in the 3rd and 4th round respectively. It’s a position of serious concern for the Chiefs and a much thinner secondary overall than they’re used to.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs offense could be a little better this season, with Jamaal Charles coming back healthy and Mitchell Schwartz coming in, but they still have major issues at guard and at wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, a once solid defense lost a good amount of talent this off-season, including possibly Justin Houston for the season. One of the best defensive players in the league when healthy, that would be an obvious loss for this team. Cornerback Sean Smith is another obvious loss and leaves them very thin at that position as well. They’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot again in the wide open AFC, but may end up falling short.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC West

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Denver Broncos 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Quarterbacks

Aside from the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, I can’t think of a single team in recent memory that won the Super Bowl despite having a passing game as bad as the Broncos’ was in 2015. It’s arguable that the 2015 Broncos’ passing game was worse than the 2000 Ravens’ because of all the rule changes that have happened in the past 15 years to open up the passing game. As a result, the Broncos finished the regular season 30th in rate of moving the chains. Things did not get better in the playoffs; even in their Super Bowl victory they had more 3rd down failures (13) than first downs (11) and still managed to win by two touchdowns.

Obviously, their defense was the one carrying this team, finishing the season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but even their dominant defense wasn’t enough to carry them to 12 wins and a Super Bowl victory without some luck, as they finished the season 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. Just 4 of the Broncos’ wins all season (including playoffs) came by more than a touchdown (11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less overall). Simply put, the Broncos’ passing offense is going to have to be a whole lot better in 2016 if the Broncos are going to win 12 games again, and that’s assuming the defense is as good as it was last season (more on that later).

Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler both saw action for the Broncos last season and neither was any good. Manning’s struggles were much more publicized and his numbers were terrible (59.8% completion, 6.80 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions), but it’s not like the offense was significantly better when Osweiler was under center. They moved the chains at a 68.66% rate in the 8 regular season games in which Manning started and finished, a 67.49% rate in the 6 regular season games in which Osweiler started and finished, a 64.71% rate in the 2 regular season games in which both Manning and Osweiler played, and a 55.42% rate in their 3 playoff games, started by Manning.

Manning retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 40 season, while Osweiler left to take a lucrative 4-year, 72 million dollar deal in Houston, but neither one of them was any good last season. There’s a reason why the Broncos went back to Manning for the playoffs, as much as he struggled early in the year. Neither one of them effectively led this offense, but with Manning they were at least getting a veteran leader and a guy who is basically an offensive coordinator on the field. The Broncos were smart not to outbid the Texans for Osweiler.

That being said, the Broncos’ options at quarterback for 2016 are not much better. The Broncos traded for veteran Mark Sanchez earlier this off-season, but he struggled this pre-season and wound up not even making the team, owed a non-guaranteed 4.5 million. Second year quarterback Trevor Siemian wasn’t much better this pre-season, but he will become the year as the starter, even though he has never thrown a pass in the NFL and went in the 7th round in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Broncos used a 1st round pick on Memphis’ Paxton Lynch in this past draft, but he’s apparently still not ready. Regarded as raw coming out, the Broncos will need him to be ready sooner rather than later, as Siemian might be the least qualified starting quarterback in the league.

Grade: D

Offensive Line

The quarterbacks weren’t the only issue last season for the Broncos’ offense, as they had major issues on the offensive line as well. Ryan Clady and Tyler Sambrailo were supposed to start at left tackle and right tackle respectively last season, but Clady tore his ACL before the season even started and missed the whole year. Sambrailo was then pushed to left tackle, where he was very overmatched as a 2nd round rookie, before going down with an injury of his own and missing the final 13 games of the season. As a result, Michael Schofield and Ryan Harris spent most of the season as the starters and both really struggled, grading out 66th and 53rd respectively out of 77 eligible offensive tackles.

The Broncos traded Clady to the Jets this off-season, rather than giving him a non-guaranteed 9.5 million dollar salary, and then signed ex-Seahawk Russell Okung to replace him. The problem is Okung has had a ton of injury problems in the past, missing 24 games in 6 years in the league and never once playing all 16 games. Okung was Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked offensive tackle last season, but that was just the second time in 6 years in the league in which he graded out above average. He’s a marginal starter at best, assuming he can even stay healthy.

On the right side, the Broncos signed Donald Stephenson, formerly of the Chiefs, to a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal to be the starter. He’s never had the injury issues that Okung has had, but he’s a significantly inferior player. He’s made just 21 starts in 4 years in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012, grading out 54th out of 80 eligible offensive tackles in 7 starts in 2012, 61st out of 76 eligible in 7 starts in 2013, and 69th out of 77 eligible in 7 starts last season. The Broncos see him as a starting caliber player, as evidenced by the contract they gave him, but they’ll almost definitely be disappointed.

With Stephenson and Okung coming in, Sambrailo will move inside to guard. He struggled mightily in limited action at offensive tackle last season, but he could be better at guard in his 2nd year in the league. He could also have to move back to offensive tackle at some point, if Okung gets hurt or Stephenson struggles. For now, Sambrailo will replace departed left guard Evan Mathis, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard last season, but signed in Arizona as a free agent. He was easily their best offensive lineman last season, so he’ll really be missed.

Right guard Louis Vasquez is also gone. A poor fit for Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme, Vasquez graded out below average last season and was released, rather than being paid a non-guaranteed 5.5 million. Garcia will start opposite Sambrailo, after grading out about average on 587 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015. He played both left and right guard last season, so it’s unclear which position he’ll play and which position Sambrailo will play. 5th round rookie Connor McGovern will probably be the top reserve at guard, while Schofield, who struggled mightily when he was forced into action last season, will be the top reserve at offensive tackle. Guard and offensive tackle remain positions of weakness for the Broncos. Center Matt Paradis is probably their best offensive lineman. The 2014 6th round pick didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but made all 16 starts last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s not bad, but if he’s your best offensive lineman, you have a problem upfront.

Grade: C

Running Backs

I mentioned earlier that the Broncos’ offense was barely better when Brock Osweiler was the starter last season. That’s despite the fact that running back CJ Anderson was far better in the 2nd half of the season (coinciding with when Osweiler was the starter) than he was in the 1st half of the season. Anderson looked like he was running in slow motion for the first 6 weeks of the season, thanks to nagging lower body injuries, rushing for 180 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (2.69 YPC). However, he came back with a vengeance after the Broncos’ week 7 bye week, rushing for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns on 139 carries (5.57 YPC), between the final 10 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, finally looking like the running back that many were expecting him to be all season.

Anderson also closed out the 2014 season really well, rushing for 847 yards and 8 touchdowns on 180 carries (4.71 YPC) in 9 games (including playoffs) after taking over the starting job, which is why he had such high expectations going into the 2015 season. Now going into the 2016 season, those expectations are lower, but I think he still has a good chance to break out as a legitimate feature back, if he can stay healthy. The Broncos seem to agree, keeping him on a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal this off-season, matching the offer that the Dolphins made him as a restricted free agent.

Ronnie Hillman actually led the Broncos in carries last season with 207 (averaging 4.17 yards per carry), but didn’t even make the final roster this year. Fourth round rookie Devontae Booker will be Anderson’s primary backup. A second round talent, Booker slipped a couple rounds in the draft because of injury concerns, but he’s proven himself healthy this off-season. Even still, he’s a pure backup behind CJ Anderson, who figures to get the bulk of the carries for a team that figures to run the ball a lot. There will still be touches for Booker, but he won’t see more than a third of a carries unless Anderson gets hurt again and figures to make his biggest impact on passing downs.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Despite the Broncos’ issues in the passing game, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders managed to have 1000+ yard seasons for the 2nd straight year. Thomas caught 105 passes for 1304 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Sanders caught 76 passes for 1135 yards and 6 touchdowns. Some of that is because they both got so many targets, without a consistent 3rd option in the passing game, as Thomas had 176 targets (4th most in the NFL) and Sanders had 137 (13th in the NFL).

Despite having less production, Sanders was actually the better of the two last season, finishing 13th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, as opposed to 49th for Thomas. Thomas obviously had huge raw numbers, but they’re less impressive when you take into account how many targets he needed to put up those numbers. However, nagging injuries that he dealt with were likely the cause of his down year, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2016. That would be huge for this offense because he was a top-5 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2012-2014, the only player in the NFL who could say that.

Sanders, meanwhile, was 8th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2014, before last year’s #13 finish. Largely a league average receiver for the first 4 years of his career in Pittsburgh, the 2010 3rd round pick has really stepped his game up since arriving in Denver, proving the Broncos smart for giving him a 3-year, 15 million dollar contract two off-seasons ago. Most importantly, he’s played well in two different systems with two different quarterbacks, so he’s a genuine late bloomer, rather than a system receiver or someone whose production is the result of playing with a great quarterback.

Going into the final year of that 3-year deal, Sanders’ 3rd contract figures to be much bigger than his 2nd, though he is in an awkward spot, given that he’ll turn 30 during the off-season he hits free agency, if he does. The Broncos are currently trying to come to a long-term agreement with him, ahead of his contract year, but Sanders reportedly wants Jeremy Maclin money (5 years, 55 million) and the Broncos might not feel comfortable committing that kind of money to someone who they think only has 2-3 more good years left after this one. Those concerns are all long-term though. In the short-term, he’s an obvious asset to a Denver offense that overall lacks talent.

As I mentioned earlier, the Broncos really lacked capable options in the passing game after Sanders and Thomas, which hurt this offense. Owen Daniels finished 3rd on the team in receiving yards with 517 and no one else had more than 207. That’s a serious problem, especially since Daniels was let go this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season; he’s expected to retire, though he has not yet done so officially. Bennie Fowler, Andre Caldwell, and Jordan Norwood played 147, 268, and 378 snaps respectively last season and all three players struggled mightily, finishing 74th, 106th, and 105th respectively out of 121 eligible wide receivers.

Despite their lack of depth at the position and the fact that Sanders is going into a contract year, the Broncos did not add a single wide receiver in the draft (or tight end for that matter). Cody Latimer was drafted in the 2nd round in 2014 and the Broncos were probably expecting him to be the 3rd receiver, at the very least, by now, but he’s caught just 8 passes and played just 226 snaps in 2 years in the NFL. It’s possible he has a bigger role in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, but expectations should be low, given that he’s shown nothing through 2 years in the NFL.

Meanwhile at tight end, with Daniels gone and no other tight ends added this off-season, the Broncos are going to be counting on 2nd year player Jeff Heuerman to start this season. Heuerman was a 3rd round pick in 2015 and missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, so he’s a major question mark at this point. For what it’s worth, the Broncos are very high on him. Virgil Green remains as the blocking tight end. The 2011 7th round pick has just 35 career catches, but is a solid blocker who played decently overall on a career high 474 snaps last season. He should have a similar role this season, but he’s definitely not someone the Broncos can count on to be the 3rd option in the passing game that they need. Thomas and Sanders figure to dominate targets again, though the Broncos will likely run more often and pass less often than they did last season.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Broncos’ passing game and offense are going to have to be significantly better in 2016 if they want to win 12 games again, because they can’t count on so many close wins again. That’s assuming their defense is as good as it was in 2015, finishing 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed. There’s a very good chance they aren’t. That’s not to say they’ll be a bad unit. In fact, they’ll still be one of the better defenses in the NFL, but there’s no denying that they lost key defenders this off-season and didn’t really replace them.

The biggest loss was defensive end Malik Jackson, who was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2015. Jackson chased the money, taking a 6-year, 90 million dollar deal in Jacksonville, leaving the Broncos with a huge hole on the defensive line. They tried to fill that hole by signing Jared Crick and using a 2nd round pick on Georgia Tech defensive lineman Adam Gotsis. Crick has made 31 starts over the past 2 seasons, but he graded out below average in both seasons, including 118th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season. In fact, the 2012 4th round pick has graded out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, though last year was easily the worst season of his career. Gotsis, meanwhile, was a reach at the end of the 2nd round. Gotsis was widely expected to go in the 4th or 5th round at the earliest and Pro Football Focus had a 6th round grade on him.

With the Broncos lost Jackson this off-season, they did keep fellow starting defensive end Derek Wolfe, signing him to a 4-year, 36.7 million dollar extension late last season, keeping him off the open market. Considering how much Jackson got on the open market, Wolfe undoubtedly would have gotten a significantly larger amount of money than that had he been allowed to hit the open market, so that extension was a great value and a borderline steal. Wolfe was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, playing the JJ Watt role in Wade Phillips’ defense and often times looking indistinguishable from Watt.

Wolfe is technically a one-year wonder, as the 2012 2nd round pick graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career from 2012-2014, but he has a good chance to have another dominant season in 2016. His struggles from 2012-2014 were largely because he primarily played out of position at 4-3 defensive end. He excelled against the run as a 4-3 defensive end, grading out above average against the run in 2 of 3 seasons as a 4-3 defensive end, including 2nd in pure run stopping grade at the position in 2014. His struggles were only as a pass rusher. The 6-5 285 pounder is a much better fit as a 3-4 defensive end and should continue to play well going forward.

Sylvester Williams remains as the nose tackle, the position where he made 15 starts last season. He was probably the Broncos’ worst defensive starter last season, though that’s not saying a ton on a defense that was as good as Denver’s was last season. He wasn’t awful, but he graded out below average, finishing 73rd out of 121 eligible interior defenders on 535 snaps. Williams was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2013, but has been a disappointment thus far in his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the NFL. Making matters worse, even though he’s only going into his 4th year in the league, he’s already going into his age 28 season, so he might not get any better. Wolfe elevates this whole defensive line, but they have problems overall after losing Jackson in free agency.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The other key defensive starter the Broncos lost, in addition to Jackson, is linebacker Danny Trevathan. Trevathan was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked linebacker last season, but signed with the Bears on a 4-year, 24.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He’ll be replaced internally by Todd Davis, a 2014 undrafted free agent. Davis has made just 4 starts in 2 years in the NFL and played just 139 snaps in 2015, so he’s a complete projection to an every down starting role. For what it’s worth, the Broncos are very high on him, but he’s still an obvious downgrade at middle linebacker.

Fortunately, fellow starting middle linebacker Brandon Marshall returns, signing a 4-year, 32 million dollar extension, ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2016. Marshall was a mere 5th round pick in 2012 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the best linebackers in the league over the past 2 seasons. He finished 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and then 8th overall among middle linebackers in 2015. He should continue that strong play into 2016.

Outside, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware remain as starters. Both are talented edge rushers, but Miller is on another level. The 2nd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Miller spent the first 4 years of his career as a hybrid 4-3 outside linebacker/defensive end, serving as a 3rd linebacker in base packages and then rushing the passer from the defensive end in sub packages, when a 5th defensive back would come in. He graded out #1 among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2011, 2012, and 2013, #2 among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014, and then was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in his first year in a 3-4 in 2015. One of the top players in the entire NFL and the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Miller was franchise tagged and eventually re-signed to a 6-year, 114.5 million dollar deal this off-season, the richest deal ever given to a defensive player.

Ware, meanwhile, might be entering his final year in Denver, going into the 3rd year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal that he signed two off-seasons ago, after spending the first 9 seasons of his career in Dallas. A future Hall-of-Famer whose 134.5 sacks are 11th all-time and 2nd among active players (Julius Peppers is #1), Ware is probably nearing the end, going into his age 34 season, but he’s still been good over the past 2 seasons. He finished the 2014 season 20th among 4-3 defensive ends and 2015 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers, back in a Wade Phillips 3-4 defense in which he’s spent most of his career, though he did miss 5 games with injury.

A big part of the reason why this is likely Ware’s last year in Denver, along with the fact that the Broncos need cap space for other positions and Ware could still be expensive to keep, is that they have promising 3-4 outside linebackers on the depth chart behind them. The Broncos traded up the 23rd pick in the 2015 NFL Draft to grab Missouri defensive end Shane Ray, who was falling as a result of a recent marijuana arrest. It was a surprising move because the Broncos already had Ware and Miller, but the Broncos reportedly had Ray in the top-10 on their board, despite the arrest.

However, it was not Ray who started last season when Ware was hurt. Instead, it was Shaquil Barrett, a 2014 undrafted free agent who flashed big time last season in limited action, in the 2nd year of his career. Barrett played 566 snaps, including 6 starts, and graded out above average and finished 41st out of 110 eligible edge defenders. Ray, meanwhile, actually struggled on 341 snaps. He still has a bright future and I’m certainly not writing him off long-term, but Ray probably won’t even beat out Barrett for the #3 job. The Broncos are stacked at the position and, aside from first time starter Todd Davis at middle linebacker, have a very talented linebacking corps overall.

Grade: A

Secondary

Even still, the Broncos’ secondary is their best unit, as they return their top-5 defensive backs from what was arguably the best secondary in the NFL last season, cornerbacks Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby, and safeties TJ Ward and Darian Stewart. Talib has the biggest name of the cornerbacks, but Harris is a far better player. That’s not a knock on Talib though, as Harris is arguably the top cornerback in the NFL. Harris has made 59 starts over the past 4 seasons, grading out in the top-9 of cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in each of those 4 seasons, joining Richard Sherman as the only cornerback in the NFL who can say that, including a #1 finish in 2014.

Talib has a bigger contract (6-year, 57 million), but he’s not a top tier cornerback, never grading out higher than 15th among cornerbacks in his career, including a 28th place finish in 2015. Talib has also missed 24 games in 7 years in the NFL, thanks to both injuries and off-the-field problems. As of this writing, he is recovering from a gunshot wound to the leg, which happened when he was too intoxicated to remember and reportedly may have been self-inflicted. Given his history of issues with guns, Talib could be facing league discipline and/or legal troubles if he did, in fact, :Plaxico Burress” himself. Fortunately, the actual gunshot wound was fairly minor and he’s expected to be good to go for the start of the season. I tentatively expect him to be eligible to play all 16 games next season, though that’s no longer a given.

If he does miss any time, the Broncos would be in good hands as 2014 1st round pick Bradley Roby is probably the top 3rd cornerback in the NFL, moving Harris to the slot in sub packages where he excels. He actually only has 6 career starts, but he’s graded out above average in both seasons and was actually better than Talib last season, finishing 23rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He could get a chance to be the starter in 2017, as Talib will be owed a non-guaranteed 11 million in his age 31 season in 2017. Like Ware, this could be Talib’s final year in Denver, as they have to get creative to figure out how to keep all their defensive talent long-term.

I mentioned linebacker Brandon Marshall and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders as players who are going into the final year of their contracts that will require hefty pay increases to keep. Another player like that is safety Darian Stewart, who proved to be a steal in the first year of a 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal last off-season. Stewart finished the 2015 season 16th among safeties on Pro Football Focus, a major breakout year for the 2010 undrafted free agent. Stewart was forced into a starting role too early in 2011 with the hapless Rams, grading out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season, and played just 82 snaps the following season consequently. However, he got his starting job back in 2014 and has been better, including 2 straight seasons in which he’s graded out above average and last year’s career best year. He might not be quite as good again in 2016, but he’s an obvious value, owed just 2.5 million dollars this season.

Ward is more expensive, but he’s a huge part of this secondary as well. Ward had a down year by his standards in the first year of a 4-year, 22.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in 2014, finishing 34th among safeties that season, but bounced back to finish 11th in 2015 and has graded out above average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the NFL, dating back to being drafted in the 2nd round by the Browns in 2010. He should have another strong year in 2016 in an overall loaded secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year, but there are a number of ways that might not have happened, as the Broncos won by a touchdown or fewer in 11 of their 15 total wins, between the regular season and post-season. If they want to be a contender again in 2016, they’ll have to play better, as they can’t rely on winning by 3 every week. That’s unlikely to happen. They still have major issues on offense and suffered significant losses on the defensive side of the ball. Almost every year, a team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Among last year’s top-4 (New England, Carolina, and Arizona), Denver looks like the obvious favorite. They’ll have to battle to even make it back to the post-season.

Prediction: 8-8 4th in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Even though the Chargers finished last season 4-12, Philip Rivers was one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL once again last season. How is that possible? Well, for one, the Chargers were a lot better than their record suggested last season; if last season had been played 1000 times, they definitely would have averaged significantly more than 4 wins per season. Their 4-12 record was largely the result of 9 losses by 8 points or fewer, a -5 return touchdown margin, and poor special teams (31st in the NFL in special teams DVOA). They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards.

All of this suggests that this wasn’t a bad team, but rather one that had some bad luck and lost a lot of games that could have gone either way. They actually finished the season ranked 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by an offense that moved the chains at a 72.28% rate, 11th in the NFL. Rivers deserves most of the credit as he was able to lead a capable offense despite a tremendous amount of injuries around him. Not only did the Chargers have some bad luck on the field, but they also had bad luck in terms of keeping players on the field. They finished 25th in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense.

Despite that, Rivers still completed 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.25 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He finished the season 14th in the NFL among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, making 8 times in the 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history in which Rivers has graded out above average. He also gets to reunite with Ken Whisenhunt this season. Whisenhunt was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator in 2013, arguably the best season of Rivers’ career (69.5% completion, 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, #3 ranked quarterback on Pro Football Focus), but left to take the head coaching job in Tennessee the following off-season. Whisenhunt flopped as a head coach, but has always been a great offensive coordinator, especially when he’s been able to work with veteran quarterbacks, so Rivers should be thrilled to have him back.

The only concern with Rivers is that he’s going into his age 35 season, but he should have a couple more solid seasons left in the tank. Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees have all played well into their mid-30s in recent years, so Rivers certainly could as well. He’s also never missed a start in 10 seasons as the starter, dating back in 2006, even playing the 2007 AFC Championship on a partially torn ACL. They need him to continue to stay on the field, as undrafted rookie Mike Bercovici is the backup and would almost certainly struggle if forced into action as a rookie.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chargers made a big effort to upgrade the offensive line last off-season, rightfully so because their offensive line was terrible in 2014, adding left guard Orlando Franklin and right tackle Joseph Barksdale in free agency, but they once again struggled upfront in 2015 because of injuries. They had the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury on the offensive line. Barksdale played well, but Franklin and left tackle King Dunlap were limited to 622 and 317 snaps respectively last season by injuries and both also struggled mightily when on the field.

Franklin has a good chance to bounce back though. Prior to last season, when he graded out 78th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus, he had finished in the top-17 at his position in 3 straight seasons, playing right tackle in 2012 and 2013 and left guard in 2014. That earned him a much deserved 5-year, 36.5 million dollar contract from the Chargers and, though he struggled in his first season, there’s a very good chance he’s a lot better and healthier in 2016. That would benefit the Chargers greatly.

Dunlap was also good before last season, grading out 37th among offensive tackles in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014, making 39 starts over that time period. However, I’m less confident in a bounce-back year from him than I am in a bounce-back year from Franklin, because of Dunlap’s age. Going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible his best days are behind him. That’s not to say he couldn’t have a solid year in 2016 if he stays healthy, but he’s probably on the decline. Owed a non-guaranteed 6.75 million in his age 32 season in 2017, this is a make or break season for Dunlap. If doesn’t bounce back, he could easily be a cap casualty next off-season.

As I mentioned, Barksdale starts on the right side. A 2011 3rd round pick, Barksdale was a bit of a late bloomer, struggling mightily in the first 2 seasons of his career in Oakland, but turned it around in 2013 and 2014 with the Rams, after being let go by the Raiders. The Chargers got him surprisingly cheap on a one-year deal last off-season and it really paid off, as he was their best offensive lineman by far and the only one to make all 16 starts. He’s made 45 of 48 possible starts in the last 3 seasons, grading out 25th among offensive tackles in 2013 and 21st among offensive tackles last season. He even played some left tackle last season and that could be where the Chargers envision him long-term. They had to pay a little bit more to keep him this time around, re-signing him for 4-year, 22.2 million, but that’s well worth it.

In addition to re-signing Barksdale, the Chargers also signed veteran Matt Slauson this off-season. Slauson was a very capable guard in Chicago last season, finishing 9th among guards on Pro Football Focus, so it was a surprise when the Bears let him go, following the selection of Cody Whitehead in the 2nd round of the April’s draft. The Bears’ loss is the Chargers’ gain. Aside from 11 games missed with a torn pectoral in 2014, Slauson has never missed a game with injury since becoming a starter in 2010 and, aside from that injury shortened 2014 season, he’s also graded out above average in every season since 2010. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he should have at least a couple more solid seasons left in the tank. He was a steal on a 2-year, 3 million dollar deal this off-season.

Slauson is expected to initially start at center, even though he’s been a guard for his whole career. Center was major problem position for the Chargers last season, so much so that 3rd round rookie Max Tuerk was penciled in as the starter before they signed Slauson. DJ Fluker is the right guard, but the 2013 1st round pick has largely been a bust thus far, grading out below average in the first 2 years of his career at right tackle and then really struggling after being moved inside to guard last season, grading out 67th out of 81 eligible guards.

The Chargers picked up Fluker’s 5th year option for 2017 this off-season, suggesting they still have hope for him long-term, but that option is only guaranteed for injury, so he’s no lock to remain on the roster beyond this season if he doesn’t turn it around. I also wouldn’t rule out him getting benched mid-season, Slauson sliding over to right guard, and Tuerk taking over at center. Either way, it looks like a much improved offensive line with the addition of Slauson along with Dunlap and Franklin getting healthy.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest single injury the Chargers suffered last season was Keenan Allen’s season ending lacerated kidney. Allen isn’t expected to have any long-term complications from the injury, but it derailed a dominant 3rd season in the league for the 2013 3rd round pick. In 8 games before going down, Allen caught 67 passes for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns (134 catches for 1450 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games), grading out 21st among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus.

His absence had a significant effect on Rivers’ numbers, as he completed 69.8% of his passes for an average of 7.91 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in the first 8 games of the season, as opposed to 62.0% completion, 6.51 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 8 games of the season. The Chargers moved the chains at a 76.49% rate in those first 8 games, but fell to 67.23% in the final 8 games. Having him back healthy is going to be a major boost to this offense because he’s one of the top receivers in the NFL and easily the best pass catcher on the Chargers’ roster. In 3 years in the league, he and Rivers have connected for 215 catches for 2554 yards and 16 touchdowns in 37 games and he’s still only going into his age 24 season. The Chargers made the wise decision to lock him up on a 4-year, 45 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal.

With Allen out, Malcom Floyd led Charger wide receivers in snaps played last season, but he retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 35 season. The Chargers replaced him by adding Travis Benjamin on a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal. Benjamin was the Browns #1 receiver last year, catching 68 passes for 966 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’ll have better quarterback play in San Diego, but probably won’t match those numbers as he’ll see significantly fewer targets. His numbers were inflated by getting so many targets last season and he actually only caught 54.8% of the 124 passes through his way, grading out slightly below average overall. He’s also a one-year wonder as he had 6 career starts in 3 seasons prior to last season. He’s a marginal starting receiver at best, but he’s not a terrible option to replace Floyd and the Chargers didn’t pay him a ton.

Steve Johnson was supposed to be the 3rd receiver, but injured his knee before the season started and is expected to miss the whole season. Johnson’s not the most important player on this offense, but they don’t have a clear replacement 3rd receiver. Dontrelle Inman played 691 snaps last season because of all of the injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but finished 111th out of 121 eligible wide receivers in the first significant action of the 2011 undrafted free agent’s career. He’s expected to be pushed for playing time by 2015 undrafted free agent Tyrell Williams, who played just 30 snaps as a rookie. It’s a much thinner group of wide receivers without Johnson, but Allen is the one they can’t afford to lose again.

Last year, the Chargers used a lot of two-tight end sets to mask their depth problems at wide receiver and could do so again this season. Both of the Chargers’ tight ends, Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates, were scheduled to be free agents. Green, who was originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for Gates, signed in Pittsburgh on a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season, but the Chargers brought back the veteran Gates on a 2-year, 11 million for what will be his 14th year in the league, all with the Chargers. Despite going into his age 36 season, Gates could still have something left in the tank. He played well last season when he was on the field, missing 5 games due to a combination of suspension and injury, but catching 56 passes for 630 yards and 5 touchdowns in the other 11 games.

The future Hall of Fame tight end graded out 7th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus last season, struggling as a run blocker, but coming in 6th in pure pass catching grade. He was 14th in pure pass catching grade in 2013, 7th in 2014, and has graded out above average in that aspect in every season of Pro Football Focus’ history, dating back to 2007. He can’t do this forever, but he could easily still be an asset in the passing game in 2016. His 2015 numbers translate to 81/916/7 over 16 games. If he comes close to that, he’ll be among the league’s better receiving tight ends once again.

The Chargers also used an early 2nd round pick on tight end Hunter Henry out of Arkansas (the draft’s consensus top tight end), with an eye on the future. He’ll also have a role in the short-term as the #2 tight end, replacing Green in that role. With a lack of depth at wide receiver, the Chargers figure to use a lot of two-tight end sets again this season. Assuming they don’t have a rash of injuries again, it’s a talented receiving corps and one that should benefit immensely from Allen being healthy.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the Chargers’ issues on the offensive line and in the receiving corps last season were largely the result of injuries, that was not the case at running back. The issue at running back is Melvin Gordon struggled mightily as a rookie and they were counting on him to turn around their running game, after making him the 15th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Gordon rushed for just 641 yards on 184 carries (3.48 YPC), added just 33 catches for 192 yards, and did not score a single touchdown. He also fumbled 6 times, losing 4 of them. One of the worst running backs in the NFL last season, Gordon finished 65th out of 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus.

Danny Woodhead was 2nd on the team in carries with 98 carries, but rushed for just 336 yards and 3 touchdowns himself, an average of only 3.43 YPC. Woodhead is a valuable asset to this offense, but not as a runner. He excels as a receiver of the backfield, catching 80 passes for 755 yards and 6 touchdowns, actually leading the team in all 3 of those categories thanks to all of the Chargers’ injuries in the receiving corps. He caught 76 passes for 605 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2013 in his first year in San Diego (with a year lost to injury in between), so he has a very good chance to catch another 60-70 passes again in 2013, even with the Keenan Allen returning from injury. Rivers loves throwing to him and the broken leg that cost him most of 2014 is the only major injury he’s suffered in his career, missing just 3 other games with injury in the past 6 seasons. The fact that he’s going into his age 31 season is a bit of a concern, but because he’s not a traditional running back, he should be able to have a little bit longer career.

However, Woodhead is not going to be the one to turn around this running game, as he’s topped 100 carries just once in his career and can’t carry a load as a traditional running back at 5-8 200. The Chargers finished last season dead last in yards per carry as a team, averaging 3.46 YPC. They should be better by default this season (it’s hard to get worse), especially since the Chargers’ offensive line should be better this season, but if they’re going to become even an average running team, it’s going to take a major bounce back year from Gordon.

He certainly has the upside to do it, but off-season microfracture surgery on a knee injury that cost him the final 2 games of last season complicates matters. He’s fully expected to be ready for the start of the season, but you never want to hear microfracture surgery in the same sentence with a young running back. If he misses any time with injury, undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow and Danny Woodhead would split carries, with a veteran also likely being added in that situation. The arrow is pointing up at running back for the Chargers, but only by default.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Chargers’ ranked 11th in rate of moving the chains, their defense had a few more issues, coming in 17th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their biggest issue, by far, was the defensive line. Defensive ends Kendall Reyes and Ricardo Mathews played 656 and 511 snaps respectively and graded out 120th and 121st respectively among 123 eligible interior defensive linemen on Pro Football Focus, while Sean Lissemore struggled mightily on 233 snaps at nose tackle. The Chargers made upgrading the defensive line a focus of their off-season though, adding Brandon Mebane as a free agent from the Seahawks on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar contract and using the 3rd overall pick on Joey Bosa, a defensive end out of Ohio State.

Bosa was a surprise pick at #3 overall, as the Chargers are widely expected to choose between Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, Florida State safety Jalen Ramsey, and Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley. Bosa isn’t an obvious fit for a 3-4, measuring in at 6-5 269 at the combine, but the Chargers think he can comfortably put on another 20 pounds to play defensive end on the Chargers’ 3-man defensive line. Bosa was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked draft prospect, but I would have gone with Ramsey (#3) or Buckner (#2). It’s always a projection whenever you draft someone that high and then need him to put on significant weight, as you don’t know how he’ll carry it. Buckner, meanwhile, played in a 3-4 at Oregon and wouldn’t need to gain any weight, measuring in at 6-7 291 at the combine. On top of that, an off-season holdout complicates matters. He has finally reported, but could be behind the 8-ball early in the season, after missing the essentially entire off-season.

Bosa will still be an obvious upgrade at defensive end and has a very bright future in San Diego. Mebane should also be an upgrade. He’ll play primarily at nose tackle, but could also see snaps in sub packages. Mebane spent the first 9 years of his career in a 4-3 in Seattle, but has always been better against the run than as a pass rusher and has adequate nose tackle size at 6-1 311. Mebane was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle in 2013, but that’s not the norm for him, as he’s graded out below average in 4 of the last 5 seasons. He’s not a bad player though, grading out 70th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season on 489 snaps, and, even going into his age 31 season, should be decent at nose tackle for a couple of seasons. He was a smart pickup.

Corey Liuget remains as the other starting defensive end. He was easily their best defensive lineman last season, though he did miss 5 games with injury and actually graded out slightly below average overall; he was their best defensive lineman by default. He’s graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league, since going in the first round since 2011, including 29th out of 32 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2011, 37th out of 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2013, and 77th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season. The Chargers massively overpaid him on a 5-year, 51.25 million dollar extension last off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, but he’s a capable starter overall.

As mentioned, depth still remains an issue on the defensive line. Lissemore can play both defensive end and nose tackle and will see some action. Despite struggling last season, he’s graded out above average in 3 of 6 seasons in the NFL, though he’s never played more than 338 snaps in a season. Darius Philon should also see snaps. The 2015 6th round pick struggled on 150 snaps as a rookie, but could see a larger role in his 2nd year in the league out of desperation. It’s an improved unit, but far from a strong one, especially given their lack of depth.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Chargers got strong play at the outside linebacker position last season from Melvin Ingram and Jerry Attaochu. Both return as starters, but, like the defensive line, depth is a problem at the position. Kyle Emmanuel struggled mightily as the 3rd outside linebacker last season, finishing 104th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on 306 snaps as a 5th round rookie. He could be better this season, but depth at the position was something they needed to add this off-season and didn’t.

Ingram and Attaochu both played well last season though, grading out 16th and 39th respectively among edge defenders. Ingram was solid as a first round rookie in 16 games in 2012, but had his career derailed by injuries that cost him 19 games and seemed to snap his effectiveness in 2013 and 2014, grading out below average in both seasons. However, he slimmed down 20 pounds last off-season (from 266 to 246) and then put it all together in his 4th year in the league, playing all 16 games once again and finishing as one of the better edge defenders in the NFL.

Ingram is going into the final year of his rookie contract in 2016 and the Chargers have a big decision to make about his long-term future with the team. He’s obviously a valuable player to this team when healthy, but his injury history should give them some pause about giving him a massive long-term extension. Attachou was also a high pick, getting drafted in the 2nd round in 2014. He played just 182 snaps as a rookie, but broke out as a starter in 2015. He’s still a one-year wonder so it’s hard to trust that he’ll be as good in 2016, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season, so his best days are likely still ahead of him.

At middle linebacker, the Chargers have another two starters on rookie deals, after releasing the disappointing Donald Butler this off-season, just two years into a 7-year, 51.8 million dollar extension. Butler was so bad over the past 2 seasons that members of the San Diego media accused him of quitting on the team as soon as he got paid. Denzel Perryman, their 2nd round pick in 2015, took his starting job by the end of last season and will keep that job in 2016, after finishing 25th among linebackers on 403 snaps in 2015. He could have a breakout year in an every down role in his 2nd year in the league in 2016.

Manti Te’o is the other starter at middle linebacker. The 2013 2nd round pick is going into his contract year and, like with Ingram, the Chargers have a decision to make on him coming up. Unlike with Ingram, the decision with Te’o is whether or not he’s even a starting caliber player. Te’o has missed 13 games with injury in 3 years in the league, never playing more than 13 games in a season, and has graded out below average in 2 of the 3 seasons, including 93th out of 97 eligible linebackers last season. Like with the defensive line and outside linebacker, the Chargers don’t really have any depth at the position, so Te’o’s job is safe for now. They did draft Josh Perry in the 4th round as a potential long-term replacement, but he’ll probably struggle if he has to play as a rookie. It’s a weak spot in a linebacking corps that has overall solid starters, but that lacks depth in a big way.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Chargers’ big off-season loss on defense was safety Eric Weddle, who signed a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal with the Ravens this off-season. Weddle had been with the Chargers for 9 seasons, since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2007. He got a well-deserved 5-year, 40 million dollar extension after the 2010 season, which made him the highest paid safety in the NFL at the time. He was a top-6 safety on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2014, but it became clear last off-season that 2015 would be his final year in San Diego, as long-term contract talks between the two sides broke down before the season started.

Making matters worse, the Chargers fined Weddle 10K for watching his daughter perform at halftime, rather than being in the locker room with his teammates, and then placed him on injured reserve for week 17, even though Weddle claimed he was not injured. Weddle said this off-season that he may never speak to the Chargers again over the incident, a very unfortunate way for an otherwise dominant tenure in San Diego to end. His career is on a borderline Hall-of-Fame path and he definitely deserves to be in the Chargers’ Ring of Honor someday, but that looks very much in doubt now.

Ultimately, not re-signing Weddle last off-season was probably the right decision in hindsight, because he did have a bit of a down year in 2015, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked safety. He’ll be missed but, now going into his age 31 season, he was not worth another top level safety contract (the Ravens got him for a fair price). The Chargers replaced him with Dwight Lowery, who is obviously a downgrade, but he’s a solid player and the Chargers were able to bring him in very inexpensively (3 years, 7.2 million).

Lowery had major issues with injury early in his career, as the 2008 4th round pick missed 28 games with injury in the first 6 seasons of his career. However, he hasn’t missed a game in either of the last 2 seasons and has graded out below average just twice in 8 years in the league. One of those seasons was last year, but he wasn’t bad, finishing 49th out of 89 eligible safeties, just slightly below average. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he should be a capable starter again. Jahleel Addae remains as the other starter, after making 13 starts last season. The 2013 undrafted free agent was decent in 2013 and 2014 on 437 and 374 snaps respectively, but struggled in a larger role last season, grading out 76th out of 89 eligible safeties on 713 snaps. He could be a little bit better in his 2nd year as a starter, but he’s a marginal starter at best.

Things are much better at cornerback, where 2014 1st round pick Jason Verrett is now the Chargers’ best defensive player, in the post-Eric Weddle era. Verrett was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked cornerback through the first 6 weeks of the season as a rookie, before going down with a season ending injury. He picked up right where he left off in his 2nd year in the league though, finishing 6th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, though he did miss another 2 games with injury. Injuries have always been an issue for him, as he probably would have been a higher draft pick if not for shoulder surgery before the draft. However, that’s really the only issue. Only going into his age 25 season, he could easily become an All-Pro player for years to come, if he can stay healthy.

Brandon Flowers was the starter opposite Verrett last season. Once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, Flowers was a top-9 cornerback on Pro Football Focus every year from 2009-2012 (the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that), but struggled in 2013, finishing 85th out of 110 eligible, ultimately leading to the Chiefs releasing him. The Chargers snatched him up on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal and were rewarded, as he bounced back in a scheme that fit his skill set better, finishing 15th among cornerbacks in 2014. The Chargers then rewarded him by giving him a 4-year, 36 million dollar contract last off-season, but he was horrible in 2015, finishing 109th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks. He admitted to being out of shape and says he’s lost 10-12 pounds in an effort to bounce back in 2016. He certainly could, but, going into his age 30 season, his best days might also be behind him.

Flowers will have to compete with free agent acquisition Casey Hayward for the starting job. Hayward was easily the better of the two last season, finishing 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Hayward made just 20 starts in 4 years in Green Bay, after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2012, but he finished 4th among cornerbacks as a rookie in 2012, 9th among cornerbacks in 2014, and then 16th last season (he missed all but 3 games with injury in 2013). Most likely, he’ll start opposite Verrett and move to the slot in sub packages, with Flowers coming in and playing outside across from Verrett as the 3rd cornerback, but Flowers will probably be given a chance to keep the starting job. Hayward was a steal on a 3-year, 15.3 million dollar deal this off-season and, assuming he gets a chance to start, his next 4 years should be better than his last 4 years. If Flowers bounces back and Heyward plays like he can, this is a very talented trio of cornerbacks, which should help offset the loss of the declining Weddle.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers should be healthier, have better special teams, allow fewer return touchdowns, and have fewer injuries in 2016, so they’re an obvious candidate for a big jump in wins from the 4 they had last season. However, they have plenty of issues still, including an aging core, a lack of depth, and a holdout by 3rd overall pick Joey Bosa. In a weak AFC, they’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot as long as they can stay healthy, but they are far from the most talented team in the league.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC West

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Oakland Raiders 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been the worst team in the NFL record wise. Over the past 13 seasons, the Raiders are 63-145 with no winning seasons. However, things are finally looking up. They only went 7-9 last season, but the team took a huge step forward and it was mostly cheap, young players on rookie deals leading the way. Armed with a top of cap space, the Raiders did a great job building around their cheap, talented young players this off-season.

One of those cheap, young players was Derek Carr, their 2014 2nd round pick. Carr struggled mightily as a rookie in 2014, finishing 38th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus and averaging just 5.46 yards per attempt, worst in the NFL; he was the only quarterback in the last decade to average so few yards per attempt and still make all 16 starts. However, he turned it around in a big way in 2015, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, moving all the way up to 10th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. We’ll see if he can keep that up, but there’s a very good chance he can and that he can also keep getting better, only going into his age 25 season.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One part of Carr’s statistics that is misleading is his 32 touchdowns. Yes, he did throw 32 touchdowns, but the Raiders as a team only rushed for 7 touchdowns. When you take that into account, the narrative goes from one of a quarterback who frequently led touchdown drives to one of a quarterback who simply often threw around the goal line. It’s still impressive, but not as impressive as it seems out of context. In fact, the Raiders actually finished last season 23rd in rate of moving the chains, suggesting they had a slightly below average offense.

One of the big issues was their running game, as they rushed for 1457 yards on 370 carries, an average of 3.94 YPC that was 22nd in the NFL last season. That’s not horrendous, but the situation gets worse when you look at how inconsistent lead back Latavius Murray was last season. Murray rushed for 1066 yards and 6 touchdowns on 266 carries (one of just 7 running backs in the NFL last season to rush for 1000+ yards), an average of 4.01 YPC, but averaged 3.0 yards per carry or fewer in 5 games. The Raiders predictably struggled offensively in those 5 games, scoring just 69 total points.

Murray, a 2013 6th round pick, flashed in limited action in 2014, rushing for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns on 82 carries, but couldn’t carry that over to a full season as a starter. Even his 2014 numbers look a lot worse if you take out one single 90-yard carry. He’s overall an inconsistent player and one who was overstretched as a feature back last season. He largely played that role out of desperation, as the Raiders didn’t have a single other capable running back on the roster. Carr actually finished 2nd on the team in carries with 33, with the likes of Jamize Olawale, Roy Helu, and Taiwan Jones coming in 3rd, 4th, and 5th with 24, 17, and 16 carries respectively. None of those three players are real candidates for significant carries.

The Raiders spoke multiple times this off-season about adding talent at the running back position, but ultimately ended up just drafting DeAndre Washington in the 5th round. Washington is undersized at 5-8 204 and, like the rest of Oakland’s running backs, he’s not a real candidate for significant carries as a rookie, though he could enter the season as the #2 back out of desperation. One area he will help is as a pass catcher out of the backfield in obvious passing situations. Murray particularly struggled as a pass catcher last season, catching 41 passes, but on 53 targets and turning them into just 232 yards, an average of just 4.38 yards per target. The Raiders still have problems at the position.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

Another one of the talented, young, cheap players that led the way for the Raiders last season is wide receiver Amari Cooper, the 4th overall pick in last year’s draft. Cooper caught 72 passes for 1030 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie, though he’s not quite as good as those numbers suggest, as needed 130 targets to achieve them, 18th in the NFL. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 51st ranked wide receiver, not bad, but not quite as good as his raw numbers suggested.

The good news is he’s still really young with a ton of upside. Even just having 1000+ yards as a rookie is a significant accomplishment, as only 11 receivers have done that in the last 20 years. Cooper is in pretty good company: Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, AJ Green, Marques Colston, Michael Clayton (the obvious exception), Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Terry Glenn. Still not even 22 years old until June, Cooper could have a sophomore leap in 2016 and total around 1200+ receiving yards on the season.

Michael Crabtree will continue to start opposite him. Crabtree isn’t that young, but he was a steal on the one-year prove it deal (worth 3 million) that the Raiders signed him to last off-season, following 2 straight down seasons in San Francisco. Crabtree finally regained the explosiveness that looked permanently gone in 2013 and 2014, after a torn achilles suffered in May of 2013. Crabtree caught 85 passes for 922 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2015.

Like Cooper, he benefitted from a ton of targets, 146 to be exact, but Crabtree still graded out above average overall, finishing the season as Pro Football Focus’ 39th ranked wide receiver. Excluding those 2 seasons following the injury, Crabtree has graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL and has missed just 1 game with injury. The Raiders retained him long-term, giving him a 4-year, 34 million dollar extension before the end of last season. That’s a pretty reasonable value for him, especially for a team like Oakland that wasn’t hurting for cap space.

The reason why Cooper and Crabtree got so many targets last season is because the Raiders really lacked a 3rd option in the passing game. Like running back, that’s a position of need that the Raiders did not address this off-season. Instead, they’ll be hoping for a 2nd year leap from their 2015 3rd round pick, tight end Clive Walford. Walford flashed as a rookie, grading out 14th among tight ends on 447 snaps, so that’s certainly a possibility. Lee Smith actually led all Raider tight ends in snaps played last season with 516, but he’s never been a real threat in the passing game, with just 32 career catches in 71 games, including 12 last season. He’s a valuable blocking tight end in two-tight end sets though, finishing 10th among tight ends in pure run blocking grade last season and 33th overall.

The Raiders definitely lack a capable 3rd receiver behind Cooper and Crabtree though. Seth Roberts filled that role last season (playing 565 snaps) and could again this season, though he’ll face competition from Andre Holmes, who was the Raiders 4th wide receiver last season (playing 346 snaps). Both of them were horrendous last season, finishing 102nd and 103rd respectively out of 121 eligible wide receivers. Neither of them have been any better in the past either, as Roberts was an undrafted rookie last season, while Holmes graded out 91st among 110 eligible wide receivers in 2014, after flashing on 393 snaps in 2013. It’s a major position of weakness in an overall solid receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

One big need that the Raiders definitely filled this off-season is right guard, as the Raiders signed Kelechi Osemele to a 5-year, 58.5 million dollar deal. Osemele will actually slot in at left guard, moving Gabe Jackson to the other side, but, however you look at it, it’s an obvious upgrade for the Raiders upfront; Osemele was arguably the top available free agent offensive linemen this off-season. Osemele was a 2nd round pick by the Ravens in 2012 and started all 16 games at right tackle that season, grading out around average, before moving inside to guard for their Super Bowl run and excelling at the position. His 2013 season was largely lost due to injury, but he’s been one of the best guards in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, finishing 6th at the position in 2014 on Pro Football Focus and 13th in 2015. Last year he also played some left tackle, where he filled in admirably for the injured Eugene Monroe.

The Raiders originally signed Osemele to play left tackle, but then were able to re-sign incumbent left tackle Donald Penn at a reasonable price, so Osemele will go back to left guard. Penn appeared to be on the decline after the 2013 season, leading the Buccaneers to cut him, but he excelled during the past 2 years in Oakland on a 2-year, 9.2 million dollar deal, grading out 7th and 11th respectively among offensive tackles in those 2 seasons. This off-season, the Raiders were able to keep him for 14 million over 2 years. His age is a concern as he goes into his age 33 season and it’s very likely that Osemele ends up at left tackle at some point, but Penn has graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and should have a couple more strong seasons left in the tank. He was an important re-signing.

I mentioned Derek Carr and Amari Cooper as two young, cheap, talented building blocks that the Raiders have. Another one of those players is Gabe Jackson, who moves from left guard to right guard with the addition of Osemele. A 3rd round pick in 2014, Jackson has made 28 starts in 2 years in the league, including all 16 last season, and has played very well, grading out above average in both seasons, including 13th in 2015. Going into his 3rd year in the league, he’s one of the best young interior linemen in the NFL.

Veterans Rodney Hudson and Austin Howard round out the rest of this offensive line at center and right tackle respectively. Hudson, a 2011 2nd round pick, signed with Oakland on a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal last off-season. Hudson first became a starter in 2012, but missed most of that season with injury. However, he’s graded out 17th, 3rd, and 8th among centers over the last 3 seasons respectively, missing just 3 total games with injury over that time period. He’s one of the better centers in the league and should have another strong season in 2016.

Howard also played well last season, finishing the year as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked offensive tackle, but he’s a little bit less of a sure thing in 2016 because of his inconsistent history. He struggled mightily at right guard in 2014 (grading out 59th out of 78 eligible guards) in the first year of a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal and, even though he played better at right tackle in 2012 and 2013 with the Jets (32nd and 46th respectively), he’s a one-year wonder in terms of being the type of dominant offensive lineman he was last season. We could see a sort of regression to the mean from him this season. However, it’s still an offensive line with no holes, following the Osemele signing, and arguably the best one in the NFL outside of Dallas.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

While Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Gabe Jackson are talented, young, cheap building blocks on the Raiders’ offense, easily the most valuable one on the roster is Khalil Mack, who is already one of the top defensive players in the NFL after just 2 seasons in the NFL. Mack, the 5th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, had just 4 sacks as a rookie, but still was very productive as a pass rusher in terms of hits and hurries, and was also dominant against the run. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker.

In 2015, he moved to defensive end full-time, after playing 4-3 outside linebacker in base packages and 4-3 defensive end in sub packages as a rookie. He continued to play the run well and the sacks came too, as he finished the season with 15, 2nd to only JJ Watt. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked edge defender, even ahead of Von Miller, who was ultimately the Super Bowl MVP. Mack is the reason why this defense finished 15th in rate of moving the chains allowed last season, despite minimal talent around him on defense. Still only going into his age 25 season, Mack is one of my early favorites for Defensive Player of the Year in 2016.

The Raiders made an effort to surround Mack with more talent this off-season, signing several free agents to significant contracts. One of those players is Bruce Irvin, who will play the hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role he played in Seattle over the past 4 years, lining up as a 3rd linebacker in base packages and then moving down to the defensive line to rush the passer off the edge in sub packages, when a 5th defensive back comes in. Irvin wasn’t their best signing, as they overpaid him on a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal, but he’ll help this defense. Irvin has finished 10th, 11th, and 13th among 4-3 outside linebackers in the last 3 seasons respectively, but it’s worth noting that he’s actually graded out below average as a pass rusher in the last 2 seasons. He’ll be most valuable to the Raiders as an early down run stopper and he has the versatility to drop into coverage if needed as well.

Mario Edwards, their 2015 2nd round pick, is penciled in as the other starting defensive end in base packages, though his status for the start of the season is in doubt after suffering a hip injury in a pre-season game. When healthy, he will play defensive end base packages and also could see snaps inside in sub packages, as the 6-3 280 pounder is a bit of a tweener. Him being healthy is important for the Raiders after his impressive rookie year, in which he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked edge defender on 605 snaps. Getting him and Amari Cooper out of the 2015 draft and Khalil Mack, Derek Carr, and Gabe Jackson out of the 2014 draft have been huge for this team. Recent strong drafting has really turned this franchise around.

The Raiders also re-signed Aldon Smith this off-season, on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. That’s despite the fact that Smith is currently suspended indefinitely for repeated violations of the NFL’s code of conduct. He’ll be eligible to apply for reinstatement in November, a year after he was initially suspended. He’s no lock to play at all this season and he’s probably one strike away from being permanently kicked out of the league, but his talent was too much for the Raiders to pass on.

Smith was the 7th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers and at one point had a future that looked as bright as Khalil Mack’s does now, before he started getting into trouble off-the-field. He graded out 2nd and 3rd among 3-4 outside linebackers in his first 2 seasons in the league, 2011 and 2012 respectively, and did not miss a game over that time period. However, he was limited to just 18 games over the next 2 seasons because of off-the-field issues and ultimately was cut by the 49ers after another DUI last off-season, the one that ultimately got him suspended indefinitely.

Smith still played well when on the field in 2013 and 2014 though, finishing the 2013 season 5th among 3-4 outside linebackers, despite missing 5 games, and then grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker through the final 7 games of the 2014 season, after missing the first 9 with a suspension. That was enough for the Raiders to take a shot on him after the 49ers let him go last off-season, even though they knew he’d get suspended at some point, and enough for them to keep him long-term despite that. His 2015 season might have actually been the worst of his career, as he finished 33rd among edge defenders on 530 snaps.

The fact that 2015 was the worst year of his year in terms of what he did on the field just shows how valuable he is when he’s actually on the field, but, like I said, the Raiders can’t count on that this season. With both Smith a long-term question mark, the Raiders used their 3rd round pick on defensive end Shilique Calhoun out of Michigan State as insurance, a very good value at that point in the draft. With so much depth at defensive end, it’s possible that Irvin ends up seeing fewer snaps at defensive end in the future, if Calhoun comes into his own and Smith can ever stay out of trouble. Even without Smith, Calhoun is unlikely to see serious snaps as a rookie on a deep defensive line, as Mack and Edwards will play base packages and Mack and Irvin will play sub packages.

Along with using their 3rd round pick on the defensive line, the Raiders also used a 2nd round pick on the unit, though I didn’t like that value as much. The Raiders took Jihad Ward, a defensive tackle out of Illinois, #44 overall. It wasn’t just that Ward wasn’t worth a 2nd round pick (Pro Football Focus had a 5th round grade on him), but this was also a loaded defensive tackle class, so the Raiders passed on some guys that I thought had borderline first round talent to take Ward there, including A’Shawn Robinson (who went #46 to Detroit), Jarran Reed (who went #49 to Seattle), and Jonathan Bullard (who went #72 to Chicago).

Ward will compete with the likes of Justin Ellis, Denico Autry, and Stacy McGee for snaps as a rookie. Ellis and Autry played pretty well last season, both grading out above average, but the former is only a base package run stopper at 6-2 335 and the latter is only a sub package pass rusher at 6-5 274. Both are also one-year wonders. McGee, meanwhile, was horrible, finishing the year as Pro Football Focus’ 108th ranked interior defender out of 123 eligible on 408 snaps. The 2013 6th round pick has always been horrible whenever he’s played in his career and should not be considered a lock for the final roster with Ward coming in.

Dan Williams is locked into the same role he played last season, in the first year of a 4-year, 25 million dollar deal. Williams, a first round pick in 2010 by the Cardinals, never played more than 428 snaps in any of his 5 years in Arizona, but graded out above average in 4 of those 5 years, including 14th among defensive tackles in 2014 on 427 snaps. The Raiders gave him more playing time in his first year in Oakland and were rewarded for it, as he finished 15th among interior defenders on 568 snaps, after signing for 25 million over 4 years this off-season. He’s primarily a base package player at 6-2 330, but he does have some pass rush ability. Mario Edwards could come in for him in a lot of sub packages, to give him a rest and allow him to focus on stuffing the run on early downs, but he’s proven he’s capable of playing significant snaps. He’s part of an overall very deep defensive line, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Khalil Mack.

Grade: A

Linebackers

These are unfortunately not nearly as good in the linebacking corps. I’ve already gone into detail about Bruce Irvin, but the rest of the group is a mess. Curtis Lofton was cut this off-season, one-year and 9 million dollars into a “3-year, 18 million dollar deal” and that’s addition by subtraction, as he finished last season 94th among 97 eligible linebackers. However, Ben Heeney, who will replace him at middle linebacker, is very inexperienced, though he did flash on 315 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2015.

Still, he’s an obvious projection to an every down role. Making matters worse, Malcolm Smith, the every down outside linebacker, isn’t any good either. Smith is arguably the most random Super Bowl MVP in NFL history (winning in 2013 with the Seahawks), but, aside from that one game, hasn’t really done much else in his career. Smith didn’t even play half of the snaps in that game (34 of 71); he just made a few splash plays that we remember (that were caused by tremendous pressure upfront by the Seattle defensive line). Smith played well in limited action in 2013, but has graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the NFL, since being drafted in the 7th round in 2011, including 36th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers on 286 snaps in 2014 and 57th out of 97 eligible linebackers on 1141 snaps in 2015, his first full season as an every down starter. Going into his 2nd year as a starter, he should continue to struggle.

As I mentioned in the defensive line section, if Aldon Smith can get it together off-the-field and Shilique Calhoun comes into his own, Bruce Irvin may see fewer snaps as a defensive end in the future. Another benefit of doing that is it allows him to play more as a traditional linebacker. His pass rush ability is okay, but he’s the Raiders’ best run stopping linebacker and arguably their best coverage linebacker. For now, Heeney and Smith will have to play every down roles, as the only linebacker the Raiders added this off-season was 6th round pick Cory James. It’s still a position of weakness.

Grade: C

Secondary

While the Raiders did not do much of anything to upgrade their linebacking corps, they clearly made upgrading their secondary a big priority this off-season and for good reason. After adding veterans Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson in free agency and Karl Joseph with the 14th overall pick in the draft, this is easily the Raiders’ most improved unit. Once a poor secondary, the Raiders’ secondary is now a strength. Joseph (a safety out of West Virginia) was a surprise pick at #14 overall. It’s not that he didn’t have the talent to go that high, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL that cost him most of the 2015 season, so many expected him to go late in the first round, if he went in the first round at all. The Raiders clearly have no concerns about his knee though. He returned for training camp, though missing the earlier parts of the off-season program could hurt his development, and there’s no guarantee he’s the same player as he was before the injury. He should start week 1, but it was a risky pick.

Reggie Nelson, who will start at the other safety spot, is in the latter stages of his career, going into his age 33 season, but he was still Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety last season, so he could have a couple more solid seasons left in the tank. That’s far from a given, but he’s graded out above average in each of the past 6 seasons, maxing out at 7th in 2012, and he was a tremendous value on a 2-year, 8.5 million dollar deal for a team that desperately needed safety help, following the retirement of incumbent starter Charles Woodson.

Sean Smith is a younger free agent signing, coming over from Kansas CIty on a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal. He’ll immediately be the Raiders #1 cornerback and he’s still in the prime of his career, going into his age 29 season. He’s had some up and downs in his career and the 2009 2nd round pick is already going into his 8th year in the league and his 3rd contract (spending the first 4 years of his career in Miami, then the last 3 in Kansas CIty), but he’s graded out above average in 5 of those 7 seasons, including 5th among cornerbacks in 2014 and 12th among cornerbacks in 2015.

David Amerson will remain the starter on the other side. He was arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL last season. A 2nd round pick by the Redskins in 2013, Amerson looked lost in 2 seasons in Washington, finishing 84th out of 110 eligible cornerbacks in 2013, and dead last among 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014, leading to the Redskins waiving him in mid-September. However, he shockingly put it all together last season in Oakland, after the Raiders claimed him on waivers, finishing 14th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. His 25 pass deflections were 2nd most in the NFL, despite the fact that he made just 12 starts.

Amerson has always had tremendous upside and has size and length that makes secondary coaches salivate at 6-1 205 (which allows him to deflect so many passes), but he looked like a lost cause 2 years into his career, so his 2015 season was shocking. Only going into his age 25 season, Amerson could continue to develop into one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, though he’s still a one-year wonder at this point. The Raiders do not seem concerned, giving him a 4-year, 33 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal this off-season. If he can continue to play at a high level going forward, it’s a steal, but it’s a risky deal.

The only job up for grabs in the Raiders secondary is the 3rd cornerback job; DJ Hayden and TJ Carrie will compete for snaps. Carrie and Hayden made a combined 27 starts last season, but that won’t be necessary this year, with Smith coming in and Amerson coming into his own. Both struggled, finishing 87th and 105th respectively among 111 eligible cornerbacks, but Carrie was at least better as 7th round rookie in 2014, grading out above average on 568 snaps. Hayden, meanwhile, has been a massive bust since the Raiders took him in the first round in 2013. He missed 14 games with injury in the first 2 seasons of his career and then last season, when he finally played all 16 games, he was horrible. Carrie is likely the favorite for the job, in an overall much improved secondary.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Raiders arguably added more talent any team in the league this off-season, bringing in Kelechi Osemele, Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson, and Sean Smith in free agency and not losing anyone of note. They also have a core of young players that could be even better in 2016. In a weak AFC where New England and Pittsburgh are both missing key players due to injury and suspension, while Denver and Cincinnati suffered significant off-season losses, the Raiders are sneaky one of the best teams in the conference. Almost every season one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Oakland should be considered the favorite to do so this season.

Prediction: 10-6 1st in AFC West

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New York Giants 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Giants, Uncategorized

Quarterback

For the first time since 2003, the Giants will have a new head coach on the sideline other than Tom Coughlin, who went 110-93 in 12 seasons in New York (including playoffs) and won 2 Super Bowls, but was let go this off-season after 4 straight seasons missing the playoffs. That means that, for the first time in his career, Eli Manning, now going into his 13th year in the league, will have a new head coach. The good news for him is that the Giants replaced Coughlin internally, promoting Ben McAdoo, who has been the Giants’ offensive coordinator for the past two seasons.

This was clearly a move made with Manning in mind; not only does Eli not have to learn a new system, but he’ll get to stick with the offensive coordinator who helped revitalize his career. Manning had easily the worst season of his career in 2013, completing 57.5% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. However, since McAdoo came in the following off-season, Manning’s career has had a second life, as he’s completed 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 65 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions over the past 2 seasons. That was definitely a huge part of the Giants’ decision to name McAdoo head coach.

The days of Manning finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback, like he did in 2012, or their 6th ranked quarterback, like he did in 2011, are probably over, and, as he heads into his age 35 season, it’s time for the Giants to start preparing themselves for life after Manning. However, he is still a solid quarterback, finishing 18th among quarterbacks in 2014 and 26th (out of 38 eligible) in 2015 and he’s still plenty productive in McAdoo’s system. I don’t expect a huge dropoff for Manning this season, but you can’t rule it out at this stage of his career, so it’s worth noting that his backup is 2013 4th round pick Ryan Nassib, who has thrown just 10 passes in his career.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

With Eli going into his mid-30s, the Giants really need to play well around him to be legitimate contenders again. That’s been a big issue for them as they’ve missed the playoffs for 4 straight seasons. Tom Coughlin got a lot of the blame, but equally, if not more, blame should fall on the front office led by GM Jerry Reese, who kept his job. The Giants entered the off-season with one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, as they had a lot of players scheduled to hit free agency from a roster that wasn’t great to begin with. Fortunately, the Giants had as much cap space as any team in the league this off-season, so the opportunity for improvement was definitely there.

One area that the Giants needed to address this off-season and didn’t was the offensive line, particularly the right side of the offensive line. Marshall Newhouse struggled in 14 starts at right tackle last season, finishing 68th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles. At right guard, Geoff Schwartz began the season as the starter and played well, grading out 20th among guards, but was limited to 673 snaps in 11 games by injury and was ultimately released this off-season after 2 injury plagued seasons in New York. That leaves John Jerry atop the depth chart at right guard and he struggled on 655 snaps last season, finishing 56th out of 81 eligible.

Both Newhouse and Jerry have plenty of experience, as Newhouse has made 50 starts in 5 seasons in the league and Jerry has made 69 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but neither of them have ever been played well. Both are underwhelming starting options, but they might be the best options they have, as the Giants inexplicably didn’t add a single offensive linemen this off-season. It’s possible that 2015 7th round pick Bobby Hart could beat out either Newhouse or Jerry for one of those starting jobs on the right side, but he struggled on 155 snaps as a rookie, so he’s not a great option either.

Things are much better on the rest of the offensive line though, especially at left guard and center, where Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg were dominant. Pugh, a 2013 1st round pick, was a league average starting right tackle in the first 2 years of his career, but the Giants decided to move him inside last off-season and were greatly rewarded for that decision, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked guard last season. That move also allowed them to move Weston Richburg, who struggled mightily at left guard as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, back to his collegiate position of center, where he finished the 2015 season as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked center. Both are still one-year wonders, but they’re also both young and could easily have dominant seasons again in 2016.

At left tackle, Ereck Flowers did really struggle last season, finishing 74th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles, but the Giants obviously still have high hopes for the #9 overall pick in 2015. Only going into his age 22 season with incredible upside, he could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, though that’s far from a guarantee. He’s easily the biggest question mark on this offensive line and whether or not he puts it together this year could be the difference between this being a good offensive line and a bad offensive line this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Wide receiver was another position of need heading into the off-season for the Giants, as Rueben Randle was heading into free agency and ultimately signed with the division rival Eagles, after 32 starts over the past 3 seasons with the Giants. Randle was largely an unspectacular player for the Giants, but they didn’t have a clear internal replacement. That changed when they drafted Oklahoma wide receiver Sterling Shepard in the 2nd round. Rookie receivers can take a year or two to get adjusted to the speed of the NFL, but Shepard will have a chance to start right away, both because of the Giants’ lack of depth at the position and because Shepard is a very talented player in his own right. Despite falling to the 2nd round, he was Pro Football Focus’ #23 ranked draft prospect because of his strong route running ability.

Shepard will compete with Victor Cruz for the starting job opposite #1 receiver Odell Beckham, with the loser of that battle starting the year as the 3rd receiver. Cruz used to be the Giants’ #1 receiver, but he’s missed the last 26 games with leg injuries, started by a torn patellar tendon suffered early in the 2014 season. The list of guys who have come back from a torn patellar tendon as good as they were before is basically non-existent, as that injury is about as bad as lower body injuries get, and Cruz is also already heading into his age 30 season, which complicates matters.

Cruz is obviously a huge question mark and I don’t expect him to ever be the same, but he could be a decent receiver for them this season if he can stay on the field. Either way, Shepard seems like the favorite after a strong off-season and could see a good amount of balls thrown his way as a rookie. He’s a darkhorse for Offensive Rookie of the Year. That leaves Cruz, when healthy, as the 3rd receiver, where he should still be an upgrade over Dwayne Harris, a kick returner who was overmatched as the 3rd receiver last year, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 93rd ranked wide receiver out of 121 eligible.

As I mentioned, Odell Beckham is locked in as the #1 receiver. The 12th overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Beckham is already one of the best wide receivers in the league and doesn’t even turn 24 until November. In 27 games, Beckham has caught 187 passes for 2755 yards and 25 touchdowns, while finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver in 2014 and their 11th ranked wide receiver in 2015. It’s very possible that his best football is still ahead of him, which should be scary for the rest of the league. Along with Ben McAdoo coming in, Beckham is much of the reason why Eli has been able to bounce back over the past two seasons.

Shepard wasn’t the only pass catcher the Giants added in the draft, as they used a 6th round pick on Jerrell Adams, a tight end out of the University of South Carolina. Adams is unlikely to be much of a factor as a rookie, but tight end is a position of weakness for the Giants, so he could have an impact long-term. In the short-term, Larry Donnell and Will Tye should compete for the starting job, with the loser of that competition starting the year as the 2nd tight end. Donnell, a 2011 undrafted free agent, had a mini breakout year in 2014, catching 63 passes for 623 yards and 6 touchdowns, but caught just 29 passes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games last season before going down for the season with a very serious neck injury.

Donnell is expected to return healthy this season, but that’s far from a given and the Giants might prefer Tye anyway. Tye, a 2015 undrafted free agent, caught 34 passes for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns in the final 8 games of the season after Donnell went down. He’s younger, healthier, and better, with more upside. He’s a sleeper candidate to finish 2nd on the team in receiving behind Beckham, on a team without a clear 2nd option. Beckham will have to carry this passing game again, though he’s more than capable of doing that.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Running back is another position that the Giants needed going into the off-season. Lead back Rashad Jennings wasn’t terrible last season, rushing for 863 yards (4.43 YPC) and 3 touchdowns on 195 carries (largely on par with his 4.24 career YPC). However, he wasn’t great either and he’s going into his age 31 season. On top of that, those 195 carries he had last season were a career high, largely because of injuries, as he’s missed 32 games in 7 years in the league; last season was actually the first season in his career in which he played all 16 games, something that might not continue this season.

Andre Williams has been the primary backup to Jennings over the past 2 seasons, but the 2014 4th round pick has struggled mightily, rushing for 978 yards and 8 touchdowns on 305 carries (3.21 YPC) and only catching 19 passes. Because of that, the Giants used a 5th round pick on UCLA running back Paul Perkins and let Williams go ahead of final cuts. Perkins could end up being an absolute steal, considering he was Pro Football Focus’ #49 ranked overall prospect. He’ll have an opportunity for playing time as a rookie. He’ll be Jennings’ primary backup.

Shane Vereen, meanwhile, is locked in as the passing down back. He’s rushed for just 1167 yards and 7 touchdowns on 278 carries (4.20 YPC) in 5 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2011, but he’s not someone who gets playing time for his rushing ability. Where he provides value to the team is as a pass catcher, as he’s caught 148 passes in 40 games over the past 3 seasons with the Giants and Patriots. One of the better passing down backs in the NFL, Vereen could have 60+ catches out of the backfield this off-season.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

While the Giants looked to the draft to add at positions of need on offense, they filled many of their defensive needs with big free agent signings, particularly on the defensive line. Going into the off-season, the Giants’ defensive line was very bare, with Jason Pierre-Paul, Robert Ayers, and Cullen Jenkins all heading into free agency (3/4 of the Giants starting defensive line). However, after spending huge money, the Giants now have one of the better defensive lines in the NFL.

Jason Pierre-Paul was the only player of those three that the Giants re-signed. JPP has been dominant whenever he’s been healthy in his career, finishing #6 among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, #3 in 2012, and #7 in 2014. However, it was unclear if the Giants would re-sign him this off-season, because he may never be 100% again following a fireworks accident on the 4th of July last year that left Pierre-Paul without part of his right hand. Pierre-Paul impressively made it back for the final 8 games of the season and didn’t play badly, finishing 30th among edge players on Pro Football Focus, but it was clear that he wasn’t the same.

Ultimately, it made too much sense for JPP to return to New York; they knew his medical situation better than any team in the league and if they didn’t want to bring him back it would have sent a big signal to the rest of the league. Clearly they’re somewhat comfortable with him moving forward. They didn’t give him a big long-term deal or anything, but he’ll make 10 million this season on a one-year prove it deal (with more available through incentives). Another year removed from the accident and another year more comfortable using his injured hand, JPP could have a strong season this year, but it’s still very possible that he’ll never be the same player again. Still, JPP at 80%-85% is an asset to any team.

One thing that should help Pierre-Paul is the addition of Olivier Vernon in free agency. Not only will Vernon draw attention away from Pierre-Paul, but he’ll play every down on the right side and allow Pierre-Paul to play every down on the left side, where he played his best football last season, understandable considering it was his right hand he injured. Vernon had a dominant season last year, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked edge player, only behind Khalil Mack and Von Miller.

The Giants had to shell out big bucks to bring him in, signing him to a 5-year, 85 million dollar deal that pays him 41 million in the first 2 seasons. If he plays like he did last season, he’s definitely worth it, but last season is the only season in his 4 year career in which he played nearly that well. The 2012 3rd round pick graded out below average in 2012 and 2013 and his best season prior to last season was in 2014, when he ranked just 17th at the position. With pressing needs like offensive line, linebacker, and safety (more on the latter two later) left largely unfilled going into the season, the Giants might have been better off signing 3 good free agents for the price of Vernon.

Inside at defensive tackle, the Giants made another big free agent signing, bringing in ex-New York Jet Damon Harrison on a 5-year, 46.25 million dollar deal. It’s a surprising sum of money for a two-down player, but Harrison is as good as two-down players come. The 6-4 350 pounder was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked interior defender against the run last season and their #7 ranked interior defender overall on 568 snaps. That’s very much in line with how he played in 2013 and 2014, when he finished 4th and 14th respectively among defensive tackles, including 1st and 3rd respectively among defensive tackles on run snaps. Harrison should have a similar season this year, though the one concern is that he’s had weight issues in the past and those could resurface if he becomes complacent after getting a big contract. He’s also never played in a 4-3 in the NFL, spending the last 3 seasons as the Jets’ starting nose tackle in their 3-4.

Harrison will start inside next to Johnathan Hankins, who returns after missing the final 7 games of the season with a torn pectoral. He was definitely missed, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked interior defender in 2015. The 2013 2nd round pick was even better than that in 2014, finishing 7th among defensive tackles, and prior to that, he flashed on 195 snaps as a rookie. The 6-2 320 pound Hankins had another dominant season against the run in 2015, finishing 17th at the position against the run, but really fell off as a pass rusher from the prior season. Only going into his age 24 season, he could definitely have a bounce back year.

However, even at Hankins’ best, he’s a much better run stopper than pass rusher, meaning the Giants have two very similar players inside in Hankins and Harrison. That means that Jay Bromley, the 3rd defensive tackle, could play a significant role inside on passing downs, even though the 2014 3rd round pick struggled in the first significant action of his career last season. He finished 2015 as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked interior defender out of 123 eligible. He’s not someone who you can rely on for a significant role.

It’s possible the Giants could use 3 defensive ends in sub packages and move either JPP or Vernon inside to maximize their pass rush, but Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Kerry Wynn are competing for the #3 defensive end job and neither of them are good candidates for a serious passing down role. Odighizuwa, a 2015 3rd round pick, struggled on 130 snaps as a rookie. Wynn, meanwhile, played a much bigger role and overall played much better, but the 2014 undrafted free agent struggled mightily as a pass rusher, only providing value to the team as an early down run stopper. It’s a strong defensive line, but one with depth issues.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, linebacker was a position the Giants really needed to upgrade this off-season and didn’t. Outside linebacker Devon Kennard is the only one of the bunch who is any good, grading out above average on 338 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2014 and then again grading out above average on 487 snaps in 2015. However, there are a couple issues. For one, he’s missed significant time with injury in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, missing 11 games in 2 years in the league, including 7 last season. Secondly, the 6-3 249 pounder is only good moving forward and really struggles when asked to cover. That was fine when he was a rookie and he was only playing in base packages, but he was a poor fit as an every down linebacker last season. He finished the season 14th among linebackers in run defense on Pro Football Focus, but 70th out of 97 eligible in pass coverage. Ideally, he’d move back to a pure base package role in 2016, but the Giants might not have a choice.

JT Thomas was largely the opposite of Kennard last season, struggling mightily against the run, but playing pretty well in coverage. He was Pro Football Focus’ 77th ranked linebacker out of 97 eligible against the run, but finished 20th in pass coverage grade. He’s a candidate to start opposite Kennard again and, even if he doesn’t, he could carve out a situational role as a coverage linebacker in sub packages. However, he’s overall an underwhelming option, as he’s graded out below average in all 5 seasons in his career and has always been a poor tackler who struggles mightily against the run.

Jonathan Casillas is another option at outside linebacker. He actually led the Giants in snaps played by a linebacker last season with 673, but that was largely because of injuries and out of desperation. Typically only a backup and special teamer, Casillas finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked linebacker out of 97 eligible. Kelvin Sheppard is also in the mix after being added in free agency, but he too struggled last season, grading out 84th among 97 eligible linebackers. He’s not a better option.

Sheppard could also be an option inside at middle linebacker, as he has experience at that position, but realistically the middle linebacker competition is between free agent acquisition Keenan Robinson and holdover Jasper Brinkley, who took over the starting job down the stretch last season. Brinkley, like Kennard, is great against the run, but awful in coverage, finishing last season 4th among linebackers against the run, but 81st (out of 97 eligible) in coverage. Robinson, meanwhile, is awful all around, but might end up starting, after being signed to a 1-year, 2.6 million dollar deal this off-season (Brinkley was re-signed for 1.8 million).

Robinson was Pro Football Focus’ 72nd ranked linebacker out of 97 eligible in 2015 and their 44th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible in his first year as a starter in 2014. The Giants also used a 4th round pick on BJ Goodson, a middle linebacker out of Clemson, and he could conceivably make starts down the stretch for the Giants. The Giants have a bunch of options at linebacker, but none of them a very good. It’s a position of major weakness and one they should have done a better job of upgrading this off-season.

Grade: C-

Secondary

Along with the defensive line, one position where the Giants spent a lot of resources this off-season was cornerback. I’m not sure they spent them wisely though. They signed Janoris Jenkins, formerly of the Rams, to a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal, making him the 7th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in average annual salary. He’s not even nearly a top-10 cornerback. He played well last year, finishing 26th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but that was the first season in his 4 year career in which he graded out above average and even last season he wasn’t nearly worth what the Giants are going to be paying him. He might not even be an upgrade over Amukamara, who finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked cornerback.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie remains as the starter opposite Jenkins. DRC, a talented 2008 1st round pick, seems to have shaken off his early career inconsistencies, as he’s strung together 3 straight strong seasons. He’s graded out 6th, 19th, and 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. Despite having Rodgers-Cromartie and Jenkins, the Giants still used the 10th overall pick on Eli Apple. Apple wasn’t a bad value at 10, but he doesn’t have an obvious path to a starting job in either of the next 2 seasons, so it was a weird pick for a team with other needs.

Apple isn’t a good fit on the slot at 6-1 199 and neither are Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, so Apple probably won’t even be any higher than the Giants’ 4th cornerback as a rookie, behind veteran Leon Hall. Hall was only signed in early August, and for just 1.5 million, but he’s still the Giants’ best slot cornerback, even going into his age 32 season. Hall finished last season 33rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, the 8th time in 9 seasons in the league that he’s graded out above average, but his age is a concern, as is his health. He’s missed 23 games with injury over the past 5 seasons, hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2010, and is coming off of off-season back surgery. If he gets hurt, it’ll force Apple into action. It’s a deep group of cornerbacks, but spending the 10th overall pick on a 4th cornerback was a weird move.

While cornerback is strong, safety still remains a position of issue for the Giants. Landon Collins struggled as a rookie, as the 2015 2nd round pick graded out 78th among 89 eligible safeties. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie Darian Thompson is expected to start at the other safety spot. Thompson isn’t very good against the run, but he does play deep safety pretty well, so he’ll complement Collins well and allow him to play closer to the line of scrimmage where he’s more comfortable. Collins could be a lot better this season than he was as a rookie, but it’s still a position of weakness.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Giants spent a lot of money in free agency to fix holes, but they still have major issues at safety, linebacker, and on the right side of the offensive line, so they probably would have been better off signing several mid range free agents, rather than committing big dollars to one-year wonders like Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins. They added Sterling Shepard and Darian Thompson in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft respectively and both were good picks and figure to start, but using the 10th overall pick on Eli Apple, who will spend his rookie year as the 4th cornerback, was a bit of a waste, considering the amount of other holes that could have been filled at that spot. All in all, I don’t think this team has done enough to get back to the playoffs, but they do play in a wide open division and could sneak into the post-season that way.

Prediction: 8-8 2nd in NFC East

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Washington Redskins 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Redskins were arguably the league’s most surprising playoff team in 2015. They came into the year with just 7 wins in the previous 2 seasons combined and didn’t even have their own #2 overall pick in 2014, as a result of the Robert Griffin trade, in which the Redskins sent their 2012 1st round pick (#6 overall), their 2012 2nd round pick (#39 overall), their 2013 1st round pick (which ended up being #22 overall), and their 2014 1st round pick (which ended up being #2 overall) to the Rams to move up to the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and take Baylor quarterback and Heisman winner Robert Griffin.

Griffin was supposed to be the franchise savior and he looked like it as a rookie, leading the Redskins to the playoffs and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year over Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. However, injuries and poor performance derailed his 2013 and 2014 seasons and by last off-season he was locked in a tight battle with backup Kirk Cousins (a 4th round pick in that same 2012 draft) for the starting quarterback job. Though many expected Griffin to still beat out the backup, Cousins surprisingly won the job and RG3 spent all season on the bench.

Cousins started the season slow, as did the Redskins, as Cousins completed 66.9% of his passes for just 6.34 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in the first 8 games of the season. The Redskins won just 3 over those 8 games and their offense moved the chains at a mere 70.97% rate. However, Cousins caught fire down the stretch and the Redskins won 6 of their final 8 games to finish as 9-7 NFC East champs. He completed 73.6% of his passes for an average of 9.31 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions over those 8 games, while the offense moved the chains at a 73.47% rate.

Now with RG3 in Cleveland, this is officially the Kirk Cousins show in Washington. I do like Griffin’s chances of bouncing back in Cleveland, in a fresh situation with a system that fits his skill set better, but keeping Cousins over him (with both hitting free agency this off-season) was the obvious choice. Cousins is not a great quarterback, but, like Andy Dalton was in Cincinnati, he’s a fantastic fit for Jay Gruden’s scheme because of his accuracy and ability to make quick reads and quick throws. The scheme and coaching do deserve a lot of credit for his production last season, but obviously so does he, as he finished the season 16th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. It’s a perfect marriage of scheme and quarterback.

Cousins is still not signed long-term, after being kept off of the open market with the franchise tag this off-season, but the current situation seems to be the best one for all involved. Cousins will make 20 million guaranteed this year and with another strong year could get a monster deal next off-season. The Redskins, meanwhile, obviously want to keep Cousins in 2016, but are understandably hesitant about committing big money long-term to a guy who has really only one great half season. If he repeats his 2015 season in 2016, they should have no problem paying him like a franchise quarterback.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The biggest reason why Cousins was able to have so much more success in the second half of the season, as compared to the first half of the season, was that his receiving corps was healthy. Tight end Jordan Reed missed 2 games early in the season, while wide receiver DeSean Jackson played just 63 snaps over the first 8 games of the season, missing 6 of them with injury. Over the final 8 weeks of the season, Jackson caught 27 passes for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Reed caught 49 passes for 584 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those are both 1000+ yard paces extrapolated over a 16 game season.

Jackson has had 4 seasons of 1000+ yards in the past, but Reed’s 2015 season was much more of a breakout year. Reed, a 2013 3rd round pick, flashed in his first 2 seasons in the league when healthy, catching 95 passes for 964 yards and 3 touchdowns in 20 games, despite making just 6 starts over that time period. In 2015, he put it all together, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked tight end. The 6-2 237 pounder is not much of a blocker, but he causes major mismatches in the passing game with his combination of size, speed, and pass catching ability, finishing last season 3rd among tight end on Pro Football Focus in pass catching grade. If he can stay healthy, Reed could definitely finish with 1000+ yards (he ended last season with 952 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games). The Redskins are betting that he can, after giving him a 5-year, 50 million dollar extension this off-season ahead of his contract year.

Derek Carrier was the 2nd tight end last season, but he struggled, grading out 50th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 402 snaps. He’ll face competition from both free agent acquisition Vernon Davis and Niles Paul, who missed all of 2015 with a broken ankle. Neither one is a good option. Davis is going into his age 32 season and has been a shell of his former self over the past 2 seasons, grading out 62nd out of 67 eligible in 2014 and then 51st out of 67 eligible in 2015. Paul, meanwhile, actually led all Redskin tight ends in snaps played in 2014 with 585, prior to missing all of last season with injury. However, that was the only season in his career in which he played significant snaps and he struggled overall, grading out 59th out of 67 eligible tight ends. He had decent pass catching numbers (39/507/1), but struggled mightily as a run blocker, finishing 62th out of 67 eligible in that aspect. He’d be a poor fit as a #2 blocking tight end behind Paul. Davis is the best blocker of the bunch and is probably the favorite for the #2 job.

Meanwhile, at wide receiver, DeSean Jackson is only going into his age 30 season, but this is already his 9th year in the league. As I mentioned, he’s topped 1000 yards in 4 of 8 years in the league. He’s not a top level receiver, but he’s graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 31st in 2015. He’s also only missed 16 games those 8 years, including the 6 he missed last season, so he it’s not like he’s always hurt or anything. Having him healthy for the full season is going to help this offense a lot.

Pierre Garcon returns as the other starter, though that wasn’t a given after the Redskins used their first round pick on Josh Doctson, a wide receiver out of TCU and Pro Football Focus’ #10 overall ranked prospect (#1 among wide receivers). Garcon is not worth his 8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, but he’s a capable starter and, this late in the off-season, the Redskins don’t really need the cap space; there’s no one left to sign. Garcon finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked wide receiver, but that was the only the second time in his career in which he graded out above average and he’s never finished better than 25th. Even in his best season in 2013, when he caught 113 passes for 1346 yards and 5 touchdowns (his only career 1000+ yard season), he needed 174 targets to do it. He’s a solid #2 possession receiver, but little else.

Doctson might not even enter the 2016 season as the 3rd receiver, as 2015 4th round pick Jamison Crowder was surprisingly impressive as a rookie, both on the slot and as the starting receiver opposite Garcon when Jackson was hurt. He caught 59 passes for 604 yards and 2 touchdowns and graded out 43rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus on 799 snaps. Doctson might have just been drafted for the future, with both Jackson and Garcon going into their age 30 contract years. It’s highly unlikely the Redskins bring both back next off-season, with Doctson waiting in the wings and Crowder also showing a lot of promise. It’s a deep and talented receiving corps across the board.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Along with a strong receiving corps, Kirk Cousins also benefitted from a strong offensive line last season, much improved over the previous season thanks to 3 first year starters. Two of those were 2nd year players Spencer Long and Morgan Moses, who moved into the starting lineup at left guard and right tackle respectively last season. Both are 3rd round picks in 2014 and both barely played as rookies, playing 16 and 127 snaps respectively. However, both played well in their first year as a starter, as Long finished 28th on Pro Football Focus among guards and Moses finished 16th among offensive tackles. Both are technically one-year wonders so it’s tough to trust that they’ll be able to repeat their 2015 seasons in 2016, but both are also obviously still very young and could be even better going forward.

The other first year starter who helped the Redskins out significantly last season was right guard Brandon Schreff, the 5th overall pick in last year’s draft. Schreff was a bit of a surprise pick at 5 because guards don’t normally go that high and he didn’t quite live up to his top-5 pick billing as a rookie, but he still finished 26th among guards, above average, and helped solidify a position of need for them upfront. Schreff is a collegiate offensive tackle, but the Redskins like him better at guard and, with Moses locked in at right tackle, Schreff is locked it at right guard for the foreseeable future. He could take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2016.

Along with that trio, left tackle Trent Williams is also very valuable for the Redskins upfront on the offensive line. The 6-year veteran once again had a strong season in 2015, finishing 8th among offensive tackles. He’s finished in the top-18 among offensive tackles in 4 straight seasons, topping out at #1 overall in 2013. One of the best left tackles in the league, Williams was given a well deserved 5-year, 66 million dollar extension last off-season, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the NFL in average annual salary.

The Redskins’ only weakness on the offensive line is center, where Kory Lichtensteiger and Josh LeRibeus both struggled last season. Lichtensteiger started the year as the starter, but missed the final 11 games of the season with injury. He wasn’t good at all even when healthy, finishing dead last out of 40 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. LeRibeus, who started those final 11 games, wasn’t much better, finishing 25th out of 40 eligible centers. The Redskins were reportedly interested in taking the draft’s top center, Alabama’s Ryan Kelly, at 21, but the Colts grabbed him at 18, leaving the Redskins to take Doctson.

LeRibeus is no longer on the team, locking Lichtensteiger into the starting lineup at least at the start of the season. While he struggled last season, he actually graded out above average in 3 of the previous 4 seasons (at both left guard and center), including 9th among centers in 2014. Going into his age 31 season, his best days are likely behind him, but I wouldn’t rule out a solid season from him. Their other option is shifting Spencer Long inside and starting 2nd year player Arie Kouandjio at guard, but he barely played (1 snap) as a 4th round rookie last year and Long is unproven as a center in the NFL. It’s overall a strong offensive line, but the Redskins do have one obvious hole.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Other than center, the only real weakness on the Redskins’ offense is running back. Despite having a strong offense overall, the Redskins really did not run the ball well last season, averaging 3.65 yards per carry, 30th in the NFL. Starting running back Alfred Morris struggled, rushing for 751 yards and 1 touchdown on 202 carries, an average of 3.72 YPC, but backup Matt Jones was arguably even worse, rushing for 490 yards and 3 touchdowns on 144 carries, an average of just 3.40 YPC. He also fumbled 5 times (losing 4) on 163 touches. The only thing he did well was totalling 304 yards and a touchdown on 19 catches, as he finished the season 66th overall among running backs on Pro Football Focus, out of 69 eligible.

The Redskins clearly still like the 2015 3rd round pick though, talking him up all off-season, not adding a running back in free agency (or re-signing Morris), and not drafting a running back until the 7th round of the draft. With Chris Thompson as the only other running back on the roster with a carry in their career, Jones could be a three-down workhorse for the Redskins this season, though it remains to be seen if he’ll be effective in that role. So far he hasn’t shown any evidence that he will be.

Thompson, meanwhile, is purely a passing down back and change of pace back at 5-8 193. The 2013 5th round pick has just 38 carries and 41 catches in his career. He could be pushed for the backup job by 7th round rookie Keith Marshall immediately, which just shows how bad things are at the position. The Redskins could also bring back Pierre Thomas as a free agent, though he looked washed up last season and is going into his age 32 season. It’s a position of major weakness for the Redskins, even if Jones pans out, as they have no depth.

Grade: D

Defensive Line

The Redskins lost a trio of contributors on their 3-man defensive line this off-season, as defensive end Jason Hatcher retired, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season, nose tackle Terrance Knighton signed with the Patriots as a free agent, and Stephen Paea was released when he couldn’t get healthy ahead of final cuts Those three graded out above average on 540, 369, and 215 snaps respectively last season, so the Redskins have a lot of available snaps on the defensive line and need players to step up. They originally converted outside linebacker Trent Murphy to defensive end, but he had to move back to outside linebacker when Junior Galette tore his achilles again, knocking him out for the 2nd straight season.

Knighton could actually be the tougher one to replace because he was the nose tackle last season. The Redskins may have to move Chris Baker inside in base packages. Chris Baker was the other starting defensive end opposite Hatcher last season last season and had a surprising breakout year in his 7th year in the league (since going undrafted in 2009), not only grading out above average for the first time in his career, but finishing 12th among defensive tackles on 617 snaps.

The 6-2 325 pounder didn’t just excel against the run, but he showed surprising pass rush ability. He’s already said this off-season that he’s not really interested in moving to nose tackle, but the Redskins don’t seem to have much of another choice. It would only be in base packages and he’d still have the opportunity to rush the passer and get up field in sub packages, like he did last year. He’s their best defensive lineman so the Redskins aren’t going to want him coming off the field very often, though it’s is worth noting that he’s still a one-year wonder. Last season could prove to be a fluke.

The Redskins other options at nose tackle include Kedric Golston, who played just 199 snaps last season and who is going into his age 33 season, and Ricky Jean-Francois, a natural defensive end at 6-3 297, but someone who does have some experience on the nose. It’s possible all 3 see action at the position. Jean-Francois is also one of the players who will be part of the Redskins’ rotation at defensive end. He graded out above average on 385 snaps last season, the 3rd season in a row in which he’s graded out above average. He’s a solid rotational player who can start in a pinch and also play some nose tackle if needed.

Kendall Reyes is also in the mix for snaps on the line, after signing a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season, coming over from San Diego. Reyes has plenty of starting experience, making 50 starts in 4 years in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2012 (including 46 starts in the last 3 seasons), but he’s also been terrible in those starts. He was Pro Football Focus’ 44th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 45 eligible in 2013, their 46th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 47 eligible in 2014, and then finished last season 120th out of 123 eligible interior defenders. It’s a thin defensive line.

Grade: C

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Trent Murphy will remain at outside linebacker, with Galette getting hurt again. Murphy, a 2014 2nd round pick, played well in each of his first 2 seasons in the league at outside linebacker, on 595 and 671 snaps respectively, so the Redskins still have good depth at the position, even without Galette. Murphy will rotate with Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith. Smith was a 2nd round pick in last year’s draft. He had a decent rookie year, grading out slightly below average on 577 snaps, and could be in line for a bigger role in 2016.

Ryan Kerrigan remains the best of the trio, as the 2011 1st round pick has graded out above average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league. He graded out 19th, 7th, 26th, and 5th respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers from 2011-2014, before finishing last season as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked edge defender. The Redskins gave him a 5-year, 57.5 million dollar extension ahead of his contract year last off-season, so he’ll remain in Washington for the foreseeable future.

Things are not nearly as good at inside linebacker though. Will Compton, Keenan Robinson, Perry Riley, and Mason Foster all saw significant action at the position last season, playing 715, 546, 463, and 259 snaps respectively. However, they all struggled, finishing 95th, 72nd, 88th, and 50th among linebackers respectively on Pro Football Focus (out of 97 eligible). Foster was the best of the bunch, though he also played the fewest snaps. It’s not like he was good either, as he graded out below average, something he’s done in all 5 years he’s been in the NFL, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2011 by the Buccaneers. He has plenty of starting experience (59 career starts), but is simply not a starting caliber player.

Keenan Robinson signed as a free agent with the Giants and he won’t be missed. Neither will Perry Riley, who was let go ahead of final cuts. However, they didn’t do much to add at the position this off-season, so Foster will have to start, as will Compton. Compton actually led Redskin middle linebackers in snaps played last season, but was easily the worst of the bunch; only 2 eligible linebackers graded out worse than him on Pro Football Focus. That was the first significant action of the former undrafted free agent’s career, so it’s all we really have to evaluate him on. The only good news at the position is 2nd round rookie safety Su’a Cravens is expected to come down and play middle linebacker in sub packages, but it’s a problem when you’re counting on a 2nd round rookie hybrid to elevate a position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Redskins are also expecting Cravens to upgrade the safety spot, at least in base packages when he’ll play there; that was a position of major weakness last season. Cravens played both linebacker and safety at USC, playing everywhere from 215-235 pounds, and is a versatile chess piece for the Redskins in a league where the line between linebackers and safeties is becoming more and more blurred every year. His skill set is comparable to Mark Barron and Deone Bucannon, two ex-safeties who excelled at linebacker last season. Whether he turns out to be as good as those two remains to be seen, but the upside is there for a guy who doesn’t even turn 21 until July.

In sub packages, David Bruton will likely be the guy, coming over as a free agent from Denver on a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal. It was an underrated signing because Bruton flashed in limited action as a reserve safety last season, grading out above average on 481 snaps. The 2009 4th round pick has largely been a backup and special teamer in his career, making just 8 starts in 104 career games, but he showed enough last season to suggest that he could be deserving of a bigger role. In Washington, he’ll play about half of the snaps, assuming Cravens beats him out for the base package role.

At the other safety spot, converted cornerback DeAngelo Hall is expected to start, after spending the final 6 games of last season at the position. Hall has made 155 career starts at cornerback, but, going into his age 33 season, safety is now his best position. He played okay there to end last season, but his age is a concern, as is the fact that he’s missed 18 games over the past 2 seasons. If he gets hurt again, it could open up an every down role for Bruton, a versatile safety capable of playing both free and strong safety.

At Hall’s old position of cornerback, the Redskins made a big free agent signing, adding Josh Norman on a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal, after the Panthers shockingly pulled back his franchise tender in April, allowing one of the league’s most coveted cornerbacks to hit the open market. This is the second straight off-season in which the Redskins signed a cornerback to a large contract, as they signed ex-49er cornerback Chris Culliver to a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal.

Culliver’s first year in Washington went as bad as it could have. Culliver was suspended for week 2 for violating the league’s code of conduct and then torn his ACL in November. Even when he was on the field, Culliver struggled mightily, grading out 110th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on 6 snaps in 350 games. The only good thing about Culliver’s 2015 season for the Redskins is that his suspension voided any remaining guarantees on his contract, allowing the Redskins to cut him after just 1-year and 7.83 million, freeing up the cap space necessary to bring in Norman.

The Redskins are obviously hoping that Norman’s tenure in Washington is a lot better; it would be hard to be worse. He’ll definitely help this team, but I think they overpaid. The fact that the Panthers felt comfortable pulling back his franchise tag after it became clear they were not going to come to a long-term agreement is concerning. He played well last season, finishing 11th among cornerbacks, but he was not good enough to deserve being named All-Pro. He looked better than he was because of all the talent around him on Carolina’s defense; Kawaan Short, Luke Kuechly, and Thomas Davis were all more valuable to the Panthers than Norman. Also, last season was easily the best season of his career, as he had never finished higher than 27th among cornerbacks prior to 2015, in 4 years in the league.

Bashaud Breeland will remain the starter on the other side, opposite Norman, after making 13 starts in 15 games last season. The 2014 4th round pick struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 99th among 108th eligible cornerbacks on 863 snaps (15 starts in 16 games), but had a breakout year in 2015, finishing 21st among cornerbacks. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he could have another strong season in 2016. He and Norman are one of the better cornerback duos in the NFL.

Will Blackmon was the 3rd cornerback last season, though he had to make 10 starts last season because of injuries. He struggled on 786 snaps, grading out 84th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks, and probably won’t be any better, going into his age 32 season in 2016. He’ll be pushed for his job by 3rd round rookie Kendall Fuller. Fuller could have gone in the first round and only dropped in the draft because of concerns about his knee; he missed most of the 2015 season with injury and also had microfracture surgery, which is a very serious surgery. If he’s healthy, he should be able to beat out Blackmon, though his health is far from a given. It’s a much improved secondary from a couple years ago, but it’s still one that has issues.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Redskins’ surprising playoff season in 2015 required a lot of players having the best year of their career, including quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins is still unproven, but is a good fit for this offense and has a good receiving corps and offensive line around him, so they should remain good in the passing game, even if Cousins regresses a little. However, they figure to struggle to run the ball once again and their defense is okay, but little else. It’s a solid roster, but they’re far from a lock to repeat in the NFC East. In a division with 3 teams that all figure to be better this season (Dallas, Philadelphia, NY Giants), I wouldn’t even consider them the favorite.

Prediction: 8-8 4th in NFC East

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Dallas Cowboys 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Cowboys went 12-4 in 2014, but fell all the way down to 4-12 last season. Defensively, things didn’t really change much for the Cowboys from 2014 to 2015, as they finished 26th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2014 and 21st in that metric in 2015. However, the offense that carried them in 2014, finishing 4th in rate of moving the chains, fell all the way down to 25th in 2015. What happened? Well, the obvious culprit is the three headed monster that led the way for the Cowboys in 2014, Tony Romo/DeMarco Murray/Dez Bryant, did not do the same in 2015. Murray, the NFL’s leading rusher in 2014, left in free agency before the season even started, while Tony Romo missed 12 games with two separate broken collarbones and Dez Bryant was limited to 9 games (at clearly less than 100%) after breaking his foot week 1.

Murray isn’t coming back, but the Cowboys used their first round pick on a talented running back in Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott and were set get Bryant and Romo back from injury, so things were looking up for this Dallas offense. However, Tony Romo again got injured again this pre-season and will miss the first 6 games of the season, at the very least, as he recovers from a back injury. That’s obviously a huge loss for this team. Now it’ll be rookie 4th round pick Dak Prescott under center. The good news is he could easily be better than any backup they had last season and he looked good this pre-season, for what that’s worth.

None of the three quarterbacks who played in Romo’s absence last season (Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Kellen Moore) looked like even capable backups when called into action, completing a combined 61.8% of their passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. In the 12 games Romo missed, the Cowboys moved the chains at a mere 67.42% rate, as opposed to 72.80% in the 4 games he played. Prescott has enough talent around him on this offense that they could still move the ball decently even without Romo, but it’s an obvious blow for a team with a weak defense and playoff aspirations.

In the 4 seasons prior to last season, Romo completed 66.2% of his passes for an average of 7.77 YPA, 124 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions, while missing just 2 games due to injury and grading out 9th, 10th, 13th, and 6th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively (2011-2014). He’ll be a big loss and there are legitimate questions about his ability to stay healthy long-term and continue playing at a high level, as he goes into his age 36 season. He’s had a good career, but he’s getting up there in age quickly and this could be the Dak Prescott show permanently sooner rather than later if Romo can’t come back healthy and play well this season.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Cowboys won’t have Romo for the start of the season, but they will have Dez Bryant back healthy. Bryant didn’t miss a game from 2012-2014 and caught a ridiculous 273 passes for 3935 yards and 41 touchdowns over those 3 seasons. After finishing as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked wide receiver in 2014, the Cowboys franchise tagged Bryant ahead of free agency. He held out throughout most of the off-season program, before finally signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar extension before the franchise tag deadline. However, Bryant was out of shape as a result of the holdout (as is often the case after a holdout), injured his hamstring in training camp, missed the whole pre-season, then broke his foot week 1, essentially ending his season before it started.

Not only did Bryant miss 7 games with injury, but he was a shell of his former self when on the field, catching just 31 passes for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns. Part of that can be blamed on the quarterback play, but Bryant was clearly never 100% before being shut down with foot and ankle problems for the final 2 weeks of the season and having another foot surgery this off-season. He graded out as about a league average receiver on Pro Football Focus on the season. Cowboys’ GM Stephen Jones called out Bryant’s conditioning this off-season and the Cowboys will hope that he can return to form in 2016. It’s worth noting that Bryant has graded out in the top-10 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus just twice in his 6-year NFL career, and that he’s had issues with drops and route running in the past, but he’s an obvious asset for this team.

With Bryant struggling and injured, Terrance Williams had a chance to have a breakout season in his 3rd year in the league, but the 2013 3rd round pick really only proved that he’s not anything more than a marginal starting receiver. Williams did lead the team in receiving with a career high 52 catches for 840 yards and 3 touchdowns, but could have done a lot more with the opportunity. Part of that was quarterback play, but he still graded out as about a league average receiver on Pro Football Focus again. He’s fine as a complementary receiver opposite Bryant, but he isn’t anything more than that.

Cole Beasley is another guy who could have stepped by in Bryant’s absence last season and didn’t, finishing the season with just 52 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite playing the 2nd most pass snaps of any Dallas receiver last year. He finished the season below average on Pro Football Focus. He graded out above average in the previous two seasons, but had never played as many snaps as he did last season. The 5-8 180 pounder is nothing more than a solid slot receiver at best.

Depth receivers Brice Butler and Devin Street saw playing time last season with Bryant hurt, playing 261 and 277 snaps respectively. The Cowboys didn’t add a receiver this off-season, so that would be the case this season as well, if injuries were to strike. Butler was definitely the better of the two and should enter the 2016 season as the 4th receiver at worst. The 2013 7th round pick has an incredible height/weight/speed combination and has always flashed in limited action. He has an outside shot to push Williams for snaps opposite Bryant with a strong off-season.

One of the more surprising disappointments from the 2015 Cowboys’ offense was Jason Witten. It was a surprise because he’s been consistently one of the top tight ents in the NFL over the past decade or so. Dating back to his 2nd season in the league in 2004, Witten has caught between 64 and 110 passes and totaled between 703 and 1145 yards in every season. He also had been a top-9 tight end on Pro Football Focus in every season dating back to their origin in 2007, excelling both as a pass catcher and a run blocker.

In 2015, he caught 77 passes for 713 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad numbers and they do fall in those aforementioned ranges, but they are on the lower end of those ranges. Part of that could have been blamed on poor quarterback play, but it’s not like he was hurting for target opportunities with Bryant having a rough year and he finished 7th in the NFL among tight ends in pass snaps played. His run blocking was also noticeably worse than normal and he finished 29th on Pro Football Focus overall among tight ends, far worse than we’re used to seeing from him.

It wasn’t all bad for him, as he once again played all 16 games. One of the toughest, most durable players in the NFL, Witten hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003 and has played in 207 of 208 possible regular season games in his career. He’s the only player in the NFL to play in every regular season game since the start of the 2004 season. However, he’s going into his age 34 season and coming off of a down year by his standards. He’s a future Hall-of-Famer, but he appears to be on the decline. With better offensive talent around him, he could put up solid numbers again in 2016 and have another solid overall year, but the Cowboys should have an eye on the future at the position.

Backup tight ends Gavin Escobar and James Hanna played 241 and 231 snaps respectively last season. Escobar was a 2nd round pick in 2013, but has largely been a bust in 3 seasons in the league, playing just 711 snaps total and grading out below average in all 3 seasons. Making matters worse, he tore his achilles towards the end of last season and is questionable for the start of the 2016 season. He’s going into a contract year and the Cowboys will probably look at other long-term options next off-season if Escobar can’t impress them this year, something that his injury will make significantly more difficult to do.

Hanna, a 2012 6th round pick, has been a little bit better than Escobar over the past few seasons, but not much. He’s a solid run blocker, but little else and has just 33 catches in 4 years in the league. He was brought back on a 3-year, 8.25 million dollar deal this off-season, suggesting the Cowboys see him as the #2 tight end behind Witten this season, but he’s nothing more than a #2 tight end long-term. It’ll be an improved receiving corps if Bryant is healthy, but they don’t have a clear 2nd option in the passing game.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The one constant for the Cowboys offensively between 2014 and 2015 was their amazing offensive line. Left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin, and center Travis Frederick are all recent first round picks and are all among the best in the NFL at their respective positions. Smith, the 9th overall pick in 2011, has graded out 3rd, 41st, 7th, 6th, and 2nd respectively among offensive tackles in the 5 seasons he’s been in the league. Frederick, the 31st overall pick in 2013, has graded out 8th, 2nd, and 1st in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. Martin, the 16th overall pick in 2014, has graded out 6th and 4th in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

The Cowboys have made big investments in the offensive line through the draft and they have definitely paid off. Perhaps the most exciting part for the Cowboys is that all 3 are under contract through at least the next two seasons and all 3 are still very young, as Smith and Martin are going into their age 26 seasons and Frederick is going into his age 25. It’s possible their best football is still ahead of them, as hard as that might be to believe. No other team in the league has 3 offensive linemen even close to as good as this trio.

The rest of the offensive line isn’t bad either. Right tackle Doug Free finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked offensive tackle, right in line with what we saw from him in 2013 and 2014, when he finished 20th and 21st respectively among offensive tackles. He’s graded out above average in 5 of the last 7 seasons and has made 99 starts for the Cowboys over that time period, playing both left and right tackle. With Smith locked in on the left side, he’s purely a right tackle, which is good for him as he gets up there in age. He’s heading into his age 32 season, but should have another solid season on the right side.

At left guard, La’El Collins and Ronald Leary both saw snaps last season and will compete for the starting job. Collins went undrafted in the 2015 draft, but could have easily been a first round pick if not for some bad luck and bad timing. He was wanted for questioning in his ex-girlfriend’s murder case and didn’t have time to talk to the police and clear his name before the draft, making him untouchable on draft day. Once he was able to talk to the police and it became clear that he had nothing to do with it, he became a very hot commodity as an undrafted free agent and the Cowboys were able to get a steal.

Leary outplayed Collins last season, but it was in very limited action, as Leary played 219 snaps and Collins played 712. Collins wasn’t great, finishing the year 51st out of 81 eligible guards, but could be better in his 2nd year in the league. It seems like Collins is the heavy favorite to keep the starting job in 2016, as Leary as reportedly has requested a trade. The Cowboys should be able to get a mid-round pick for him at the very least if they want to move him. He’s young (going into his age 27 season), experienced (35 starts in the past 3 seasons), inexpensive (owed 2.553 million in 2016 in the final year of his rookie contract), and could start on the majority of offensive lines in the NFL. He’s graded out above average in 2 of the 3 seasons in which he’s seen playing time. Even if the Cowboys move him, this is still the best offensive line and football and having Leary as a reserve would just be an added bonus.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Because of how good the Cowboys’ offensive line is, the Cowboys barely missed DeMarco Murray. In fact, in 2014 with Murray, they rushed for 2354 yards and 16 touchdowns on 508 carries, an average of 4.63 YPC, the exact same average as 2015 without Murray, when they rushed for 1890 yards and 8 touchdowns on 408 carries, an average of 4.63 YPC. And that was despite the fact that the Cowboys’ passing game was a lot worse in 2015, meaning opposing defenses could focus on the run more. Meanwhile, Murray struggled mightily in Philadelphia in 2015, rushing for 702 yards and 6 touchdowns on 193 carries, an average of just 3.64 YPC, largely proving that it was the offensive line that largely made him, not the other way around.

Darren McFadden led the way with 239 carries for the Cowboys last season, turning them into 1089 yards and 3 touchdowns, while adding 40 catches for another 328 yards. He was actually just one of 7 running backs in the NFL to top 1000 yards last season. The one-time #4 overall pick, McFadden has largely been a bust in his career and didn’t even play that well last season, finishing 42nd out of 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus, but the Cowboys’ offensive line is so good that he was able to still put up impressive numbers.

The concern with McFadden is that he’s missed 29 games in 8 years in the league and that he’s already going into his age 29 season. The Cowboys added Alfred Morris in free agency to complement McFadden, signing the ex-Redskin to a 2-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Morris is a terrible pass catcher, with just 47 catches in 4 years in the league as a starter, and he’s seen his carries and YPC decrease in every season he’s been in the league, going from 4.81 YPC on 335 carries in 2012, to 4.62 YPC on 276 carries in 2013, to 4.05 YPC on 265 carries in 2014, to 3.72 YPC on 202 carries last season. Last year was obviously the worst year of his career, but he was a solid value on a buy low deal and a good fit as an early down runner in Dallas because he’s a between the tackles runner and the Cowboys have a great offensive line.

McFadden and Morris would have been a decent enough duo for a Cowboys team that doesn’t need a lot of running back talent to run the ball effectively because of their offensive line, but the Cowboys inexplicably decided to use the 4th overall pick on Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is a very talented running back and could be very dominant in Dallas, but it seems unnecessary to use that high of a pick on a running back (especially in today’s NFL) when you already have a pair of decent backs, when you don’t need good running backs to run the ball well, and when you have other major needs on the defensive side of the ball.

A cornerback like Jalen Ramsey or a defensive end like DeForest Buckner would have made a lot more sense. Elliot is a great player, but the only way that pick ends up being worth it is if he becomes the next Emmitt Smith. It seems like poor resource allocation to me. It’s unclear how the carries will be divided up, but you have to figure that Elliot gets the bulk of the work, especially as the season goes on, while McFadden and Morris slot in behind him as overqualified backups. It’s possible one gets traded for a late round pick later in the off-season if a team gets desperate for a running back.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, defensive end was a huge position of need for the Cowboys going into the draft. That’s because projected starters Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence are both suspended, for the first 10 and first 4 games of the season respectively, after failing drug tests. On top of that, they have no depth at the position. Fourth round rookie Charles Tapper could have to start for the first few weeks of the season, as could free agent acquisition Benson Mayowa. Mayowa played a career high 381 snaps last season in Oakland and struggled mightily, grading out 91st out of 110 eligible edge defenders. That’s pretty similar to how he played in 2014, when he struggled mightily on 370 snaps. The 2013 undrafted free agent would be overstretched as a starter.

Things will be a little better when Lawrence and Gregory return, but Gregory graded out below average on 250 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2015 and isn’t expected to be eligible until at least the Cowboys’ 11th game after the season after failing 2 drug tests this off-season. It’s also worth noting that he’s another failed drug test away from a season long suspension and has already failed thee drug tests in the past year, including the combine drug test that sunk his draft stock from possibly the top-10 to the end of the 2nd round. Time will tell if he’s worth the pick, but he hasn’t shown it yet, nor has he shown any desire to avoid suspension and stay on the field.

Lawrence, meanwhile, is a lot better and will be eligible to return after 4 games. The 2014 2nd round pick had a breakout year in 2015, after playing just 221 snaps in an injury plagued rookie season. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked edge defender, so he’ll really be missed when he’s suspended. He’s a one-year wonder, but he’s only going into his age 24 season and could easily pick up right where he left off when he returns from suspension. He’s probably their best defensive lineman.

Things are little bit better at defensive tackle. Tyrone Crawford was one of the best defensive tackles in the league in 2014, finishing 13th at the position, earning him a 5-year, 45 million dollar extension ahead of his contract year. However, Crawford disappointed in 2015, finishing the year as Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked interior defender out of 123 eligible. The Cowboys will obviously hope he has a bounce back year in 2016, given how much money they gave him, but he remains a one-year wonder. Prior to his 2014 breakout year, the 2012 3rd round pick had played just 303 career snaps. Crawford could also see time at defensive end early in the season. The 6-4 290 pounder fits better at defensive tackle than defensive end now that he’s filled out his frame more, but he came into the league as a defensive end and played there in college, so it’s an option for the Cowboys.

Nick Hayden struggled mightily as the other starter opposite Lawrence last season, but the Cowboys upgraded him this off-season. They brought Cedric Thornton in from Philadelphia on a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal, an underrated signing that could really help the Cowboys. Thornton has never been a good pass rusher, grading out below average as a pass rusher in every season of his career, since going undrafted in 2012, but he’s been one of the league’s better run stopping defensive linemen over the past 3 seasons, since becoming a starter. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked 3-4 defensive end against the run in 2013 and their 8th ranked 3-4 defensive end against the run in 2014.

In 2015, he wasn’t quite as good, but he still finished 31st among interior defenders against the run and 44th overall. He’ll be very valuable for the Cowboys as an early down run defender. The Cowboys also added Maliek Collins to the mix at defensive tackle, taking the Nebraska defensive tackle in the 3rd round, but he broke a bone in his foot this off-season and could miss the entire off-season program and possibly the start of the season. Even if he is able to make it back for week 1, missing the entire off-season program is a big problem for a rookie. Defensive line is a position of weakness for the Cowboys and one they should have addressed earlier in the draft.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Many thought the Cowboys would draft a defensive end atop the 2nd round, #34 overall, but they used that pick on linebacker Jaylon Smith from Notre Dame. That move could pan out long-term, but Smith is highly unlikely to play at all this season after suffering a brutal knee injury in Notre Dame’s bowl game on New Years day. Smith was a projected top-10 pick before the injury, but his chances of ever realizing that potential are very much in doubt now. I thought 34 was too early to take a chance on Smith. Combine the Smith pick with the fact that they used the 4th pick on a running back they didn’t need and the Cowboys used their first 2 picks on luxury selections, luxuries they couldn’t really afford. I think they mismanaged the early part of the draft and it’ll be noticeable on a defense that desperately needed upgrades at defensive end and cornerback.

Smith is not the only Cowboys’ linebacker expected to miss the entire season, as incumbent starting middle linebacker Rolando McClain has also been suspended for the first 10 games of the season and is unlikely to return to the team following the suspension. McClain is dealing with addiction problems off-the-field and is reportedly far too out of shape to play football. If healthy, Smith would likely take over for him in 2017 and beyond, but, for now, the Cowboys will have to shift Anthony Hitchens from a two-down role outside to an every down role inside at middle linebacker.

Hitchens is an obvious downgrade from McClain. McClain was Pro Football Focus 28th ranked linebacker last season, while Hitchens finished 69th out of 97 eligible on just 538 snaps as a part-time player. The 2014 4th round pick also struggled as a rookie, finishing 34th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. With him moving inside, veteran free agent signing Justin Durant is expected to step into the two-down role. He’s been a solid run stopper when healthy in his career, but he is heading into his age 31 season, has missed 36 games with injury in 9 seasons in the league, including 19 over the past 3 seasons, and is coming off of a season in which he finished 66th out of 97 eligible linebackers on 657 snaps.

Fortunately, Sean Lee will be on the field for the Cowboys, though that hasn’t always been the case, as the 2010 2nd round pick has missed 36 games in 6 years in the league, including a torn ACL that cost him his entire 2014 season. Lee clearly had no problem bouncing back from that injury, having an All-Pro caliber season in his return and finishing 3rd among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, despite playing outside linebacker for the first time in his career. He’ll play every down as an outside linebacker in the Cowboys’ 4-3 once again in 2015.

Lee has always had the potential to play like he did last season, but has never been able to stay healthy. He was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked middle linebacker in 2011, their 2nd ranked middle linebacker before injury in 2012 (6 games), and their 1st ranked before injury in 2013 (9 games). Even last season, in arguably the most impressive season of his career, Lee only played 14 games, which tied his career high. He could have an equally dominant season in 2016, but, going into his age 30 season, with a serious history of injuries, that’s not a guarantee. The Cowboys desperately need him to stay on the field though, on a defense that doesn’t have much healthy/eligible talent around him.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned, cornerback was a huge need for the Cowboys going into the draft. They had a golden opportunity to take Jalen Ramsey, who I thought was the top overall player in the draft class, at 4 after the Chargers passed on him for Joey Bosa, but instead decided to add a running back when the running game was not a problem at all. As a result, the Cowboys didn’t get around to addressing the position until the 6th round, when they took Purdue cornerback Anthony Brown. Brown is unlikely to see significant snaps as a rookie and, if he does, it probably won’t be a good sign.

The Cowboys reportedly had interest in either moving 2015 1st round pick Byron Jones to safety or cutting overpaid veteran cornerback Brandon Carr, but it’s going to be tough for them to do either of those things after failing to address the position in the draft. Carr did take a paycut, going from 9.1 million to 5.5 million (with another 500K available through incentives), but his salary is now guaranteed, which secures his roster spot for 2016. It’s still too much money for him.

Carr has been a massive bust as a free agent signing, after signing a 5-year, 50.1 million dollar deal with the Cowboys four off-seasons ago. He’s never graded out higher than 52nd among cornerbacks in 4 years in Dallas and finished last season 73th out of 111 eligible. The Cowboys have never been able to get rid of him and his massive salary though because they’ve never really had any better options, which remains the case now. He’s unlikely to turn it around, now going into his age 30 season.

Jones might move to safety anyway, as safety is also a position of need and the Cowboys like the 6-0 205 pounder better there. That leaves them very thin at cornerback though, as Jones was their best cornerback as a rookie, finishing 23rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. If Jones moves to safety full-time, that leaves Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, and Morris Claiborne as their top-3 cornerbacks, with 6th round rookie Brown possibly being the next guy up if an injury hits.

Scandrick is a solid player that the Cowboys really missed last season, as he missed the whole year with a torn ACL he suffered in the pre-season. He’ll be a welcome re-addition and will slot right back into his old starting cornerback job. Prior to his injury, Scandrick had graded out above average in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including 3 straight and a #10 ranking in 2014, the best season of his career. I’m skeptical of his ability to match the best season of his career in 2016, especially given that he’s coming off a serious knee injury, but he’s still young, only going into his age 29 season, and he should have another solid year as a starter. He’s easily their best cornerback.

The bigger problem is #3 cornerback Morris Claiborne. Claiborne was the 6th overall pick in 2012, but has been a massive bust in 4 years in the league. Claiborne has missed 24 games with injury over that time period (including a brutal torn patellar tendon suffered in 2014), has never graded out above average, and is coming off of probably the worst year of his entire career in 2015. He was Pro Football Focus’ 104th ranked cornerback out of 111 eligible last season. The Cowboys bringing him back on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal was a move made out of pure desperation, as he’s one of the worst cornerbacks in the entire NFL. Brown could end up pushing him for snaps at some point this year and playing Jones on the slot in sub packages is another option, though they’d probably rather have him concentrate on safety.

The Cowboys depth at safety isn’t much better. Barry Church and JJ Wilcox were the starters last season, but they graded out 67th and 79th respectively out of 89 eligible safeties. Church should keep his starting job, but Wilcox reportedly might not even make the team, with Jones moving over to safety and the Cowboys adding Kavon Frazier in the 6th round of the draft. Church has graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league, but he’s never really been terrible and he’s made 47 starts over the past 3 seasons. He’s a marginal starter, but he’ll get the job done. If Jones has to move back to cornerback, even only in sub packages, either Wilcox or Frazier would be the other safety, which is not a good situation. Jones and Scandrick are solid players, but the Cowboys are going to have to get creative in order to field a passable secondary.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The season hasn’t even started yet and the Cowboys have already lost a lot of players. Along with Romo getting hurt, the Cowboys have also had 3 defensive starters suspended this off-season, including Randy Gregory and Rolando McClain, who are suspended for the first 10 games of the season and face uncertain futures when they return. McClain is unlikely to play this season, while Gregory could join him on the sidelines all year. Already one of the worst defenses in the league over the past 2 seasons, the Cowboys are going to have a tough time stopping anyone in 2016. That’s a problem, considering they just lost their quarterback for an extended period of time with injury. Prescott is better than any backup they had last year and he’ll have Ezekiel Elliott and a healthy Dez Bryant helping him out, which they didn’t have last season, but the best they can hope for is this offense can tread water without Romo and keep this season alive for when he returns.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in NFC East

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