Philadelphia Eagles 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Chip Kelly’s three year tenure as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles had a lot of issues, but one area where he really did seem to add value to the team as a coach was at the quarterback position. Despite a less than impressive bunch of quarterbacks (Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford), the Eagles have completed 62.7% of their passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 82 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions over the past 3 seasons. Those aren’t spectacular numbers, but Foles, Sanchez, and Bradford all played the best football of their career under Kelly, and even a well past his prime Michael Vick looked decent in Kelly’s system in 2013.

In Kelly’s first and only off-season in charge of the roster in 2015 (ultimately his undoing), Kelly traded incumbent starting quarterback Nick Foles, along with a 2015 4th round pick and a 2016 2nd round pick, to the Rams for Sam Bradford. It was a shocking move at the time because Foles hadn’t been terrible in Philadelphia and was still signed on a cheap rookie deal, while Bradford was a former #1 overall pick who had underachieved and missed the last 25 games with two ACL tears. However, compared to some of Kelly’s other personnel decisions, it didn’t end up being a terrible move.

Bradford, as I mentioned before, played the best football of his career in 2015 with the Eagles. He was unspectacular in 14 starts (missing 2 with injury), completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.00 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, but he proved himself a capable starting quarterback, while Foles looked lost for most of the year in St. Louis and was ultimately benched for journeyman Case Keenum. Still, it was a lot to pay to get Bradford and they had to pay even more to keep him this off-season, signing him to a 2-year, 35 million dollar deal that guarantees him 22 million in the first year, including 11 million paid at signing.

That was one of many moves this season made at quarterback this off-season. In addition to signing Bradford, the Eagles splurged for a backup quarterback, signing Chase Daniel to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal. Daniel flashed in limited action as the backup quarterback in Kansas City, where Doug Pederson was the offensive coordinator for the past 3 seasons. Meanwhile, Mark Sanchez, previously the backup quarterback, was sent to Denver for a late round pick. Then, despite at the time having 29 million committed to quarterbacks this season, the Eagles also made a shocking move to trade up to #2 overall, sending the 8th overall pick, a 3rd rounder, a 4th rounder, a 2017 1st rounder, and a 2018 2nd rounder to the Browns to do so, with the intention of taking a quarterback. With Jared Goff going #1 overall to the Rams, the Eagles drafted North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz #2 overall.

Wentz entered camp as the 3rd quarterback behind Bradford and Daniel, but the Eagles then made the shocking decision to trade Bradford with less than 2 weeks before the start of the season to the Vikings, who had just lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater the week before to a brutal leg injury that will keep him out for at least the entire 2016 season, if not longer. The Eagles were paid well for Bradford, getting back a 2017 1st round pick and a conditional pick in 2018, but still not nearly as well as they paid for Wentz. They also owe Bradford his 11 million dollar signing bonus either way, meaning the Vikings are getting him for 11 million in 2017 and 13 million (non-guaranteed) in 2018.

Most importantly, the Eagles now have to pivot on the season’s eve to another quarterback, after trading away their best early season option. Daniel might now start week 1, though the Eagles also apparently feel good about Wentz’s ability to make starts early in the season. He could become the starter as soon as he’s healthy enough to return from a rib injury suffered in the pre-season, which could be pretty early on in the season. It’s a still fluid situation under center, which isn’t great for this team in general, but they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to be competitive in a weak NFC East regardless.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

It’s definitely worth mentioning that Bradford didn’t have a great receiving corps last season, as their top 5 wide receivers (Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, Riley Cooper, Josh Huff, Miles Austin) all graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season. That kept his numbers down and made him look worse than he was, a concern for whoever is under center this season. Matthews was the best of the bunch last season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked wide receiver (out of 121 eligible), playing 79.5% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps and catching 85 passes for 997 yards and 8 touchdowns, all team highs. A 2014 2nd round pick, Matthews had a similar year as a rookie and is probably under-qualified to be a #1 receiver, but he doesn’t turn 24 until July and could have the best year of his career in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. That might not necessarily show up in the stat sheet though, as the Eagles figure to run more often and run fewer plays in general, going from Chip Kelly to Doug Pederson.

Meanwhile, Agholor, who was 2nd on the team in snaps played, playing 58.0% of the team’s offensive snaps, was the worst of the bunch last season, managing just 23 catches for 283 yards and 1 touchdown, despite significant playing time, really hurting the offense. It’s hard for him to be worse in 2016, as he was Pro Football Focus’ lowest rated eligible wide receiver in 2015, but he could also be significantly better, considering he was a 1st round pick in 2015 and still has great upside.

The Eagles signed free agent Rueben Randle to potentially start over Agholor as a rookie, but he had a horrible off-season and didn’t even make the final roster. That likely locks Agholor into the starting role to begin the season, but off-season acquisition Dorial Green-Beckham could take his job at some point. DGB wasn’t acquired until August, so it’s unlikely he can unseat Agholor early in the season, but he’s also going into his 2nd year in the league and played much better than Agholor did as a rookie. He also arguably has more upside.

At one point a possible top-5 pick, Green-Beckham was kicked off the team the University of Missouri for off-the-field issues, didn’t play at all in 2014, and then fell to the 2nd round of the 2015 NFL Draft. He flashed on 580 snaps as a rookie last season and looked poised for a breakout year in 2016, but had a disappointing off-season, which led to the Titans sending him to the Eagles for a backup offensive lineman. It was a weird move from Tennessee’s perspective, even if Green-Beckham wasn’t going to be a starter, and the Eagles could benefit if he ever comes close to reaching his potential. Still only going into his age 23 season, that’s certainly still a possibility, even if it doesn’t happen this season.

With the wide receivers struggling mightily last season, tight end Zach Ertz, tight end Brent Celek, and running back Darren Sproles were 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team respectively in receiving yards, though Ertz had more than the other two combined. A 2013 2nd round pick, Ertz had a career best 75 catches for 853 yards and 2 touchdowns in his 3rd year in the league in 2015. Ertz has improved his receiving totals in each of his 3 seasons in the NFL, going from 464 in 2013 to 702 in 2014 to 853 in 2015, and is also sneakily one of the top few tight ends in the NFL.

Ertz graded out 9th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus on 459 snaps in 2013, 5th among tight ends on 603 snaps in 2014, and then finished 4th last season on 788 snaps, paralleling his yardage progression. In each of his 3 years in the league, he’s played more, produced more, and played better overall, as he’s also developed very nicely as a run blocker as well (last season he was 6th at his position in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus). That’s the type of progression teams love to see out of high picks and the Eagles deservedly rewarded him with a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie contract, making him one of the highest paid tight ends in the league.

I see no reason why Ertz couldn’t continue to improve his pass catching numbers. He still only played 68.2% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last season and he doesn’t even turn 26 until November. Plus, he was hampered by off-season hernia surgery early in the year last year, missing the opener and not really hitting his stride until the Eagles’ 6th game of the season as a result. He averaged 5.9 catches for 68.1 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game in the Eagles’ final 11, which extrapolates to 95 catches for 1089 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games.

That’s a high end estimate, especially since the Eagles figure to play with a slower pace this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he topped 1000 yards in 2016 (a number just 4 tight ends exceeded in 2015) and the 6-5 250 pounder should get more use in the red zone, after scoring just twice on 75 catches in 2015. New head coach Doug Pederson comes from Kansas City, where a similar tight end Travis Kelce has scored 10 times on 139 catches in the last 2 seasons. Ertz is my pick to lead the team in receiving yards, over Matthews.

Ertz wasn’t the only Eagles tight end to get a new contract this off-season, as the Eagles re-signed Brent Celek to a 3-year, 13 million dollar deal. It was a bit of a surprising move, as Celek is going into his age 31 season and has seen his snaps decrease in each of the last 3 seasons, with Ertz emerging, going from 861 to 845 to 815 to 601 in 2012-2015 respectively. The presence of Celek has always somewhat limited Ertz’s snap counts and he could continue to be a thorn in Ertz’s side in that sense this season, but it’s also possible that the Eagles just really value Celek’s run blocking and veteran leadership and wanted to keep him around, even as a highly paid blocking tight end who mostly sees the field in two-tight end sets. Either way, I don’t see Celek putting up big numbers in the passing game in 2016, though he’s graded out above average in 7 straight seasons overall.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, Chip Kelly’s ultimate undoing in Philadelphia was his off-season in charge of the roster, which inarguably made the Eagles’ roster less talented than it previously was. One of his best moves was sending running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills for middle linebacker Kiko Alonso. Even though McCoy was more valuable for the Bills last season than Alonso was for the Eagles in an injury plagued season, Alonso’s salary was a fraction of McCoy’s, freeing up valuable cap space for the Eagles.

The Eagles were also able to trade Alonso to the Dolphins this off-season in a deal that allowed the Eagles to move from 13 to 8 in the first round, paving the way for them eventually moving up to 2 to grab Wentz. By the NFL draft trade value chart, the Eagles got a 3rd round pick worth of value by moving up 5 spots, not to mention that they were able to dump Byron Maxwell’s atrocious contract on the Dolphins in the deal as well. With McCoy headed into his age 28 season at the running back position, owed 26.5 million guaranteed from 2015-2017, it would be hard to imagine someone trading a 3rd rounder or the equivalent for McCoy last off-season.

Where Kelly made a huge mistake was using that freed up cap space to sign DeMarco Murray to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal to replace McCoy. Murray, an injury prone player whose production in Dallas can largely be attributed to the Cowboys’ offensive line and offensive supporting cast, struggled mightily in 2015 with the Eagles, rushing for 702 yards and 6 touchdowns on 193 carries (3.64 YPC). He spent much of the second half of the season in the doghouse, totaling just 38 carries over the final 5 weeks of the season.

The Eagles were fortunately able to get Murray to agree to a pay cut as part of a trade to the Titans this off-season, freeing them from what would have been a 7 million dollar guaranteed salary for Murray in 2016. The Eagles just got a swap of 4th round picks in the trade, but that’s a whole lot better than paying him. The problem is the Eagles didn’t really replace Murray, leaving the Eagles pretty thin at the running back position. That could be an issue if the Eagles want to run the ball as frequently this season as Pederson’s offenses in Kansas City did over the last 3 seasons (1564 pass attempts vs. 1311 carries).

Ryan Mathews will be the lead back with Murray gone. You could do a lot worse than Mathews, as Mathews has a 4.57 career YPC, a solid all-around skill set, experience as a lead back (topping 250 touches in both 2011 and 2013), and was easily the Eagles’ best running back last season, rushing for 539 yards and 6 touchdowns on 106 carries (5.08 YPC). However, durability has always been the issue for the 2010 1st round pick, as he has missed 23 games with injury in 6 seasons in the league and has been limited in many others. It’s not going to be easier for him to stay healthy as he heads into his age 29 season either. He’s a talented player, but ill-suited to be a feature back in a run heavy offense. The Eagles should be happy with 250 touches out of him and should be wary of running him into the ground.

Unfortunately, they might not have a choice because, as I mentioned, they didn’t add a real replacement for Murray and don’t have much depth at the position. The Eagles did not add a running back in free agency and did not draft one until the 5th round (West Virginia’s Wendell Smallwood), a big consequence of the Eagles’ huge trade up for Wentz that left them with just one other pick besides Wentz in the first four rounds. Smallwood lacks feature back size at 5-10 208, isn’t a powerful runner, and is probably ultimately going to be more of a long-term replacement for Darren Sproles than anything, but he provides valuable speed and pass catching ability out of the backfield.

Sproles, meanwhile, is still around, but is going into his age 33 season. Over the past 7 years, Sproles has averaged 67.3 carries and 61.6 catches per season, while averaging 4.97 yards per carry and 8.79 yards per catch. Last season, he had a similar usage to his career averages, with 83 carries and 55 catches, but averaged just 3.82 yards per carry and 7.05 yards per catch. He’s a declining player at this point in his career. He’ll work in behind Ryan Mathews in obvious passing situations, though he may see less usage than he’s used to with Smallwood in town. Like Smallwood and Mathews, he’s ill-suited for a big role. The only other running backs on the roster are Kenjon Barner, a 5-9 195 pound 2013 6th round pick with 34 career carries, and undrafted free agent Cedric O’Neal, neither of whom are lock for the final roster. They have a serious depth issue behind an injury prone starter.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

One of the reasons the Eagles struggled to run the ball last season is because they got rid of veteran guards Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis last off-season (the latter of whom was once again one of the best guards in the NFL last season) and did nothing to replace them. That left Allen Barbre and Matt Tobin to play the majority of the snaps and both predictably struggled. This especially hurt Murray, who is primarily a between the tackles runner and needs good interior blocking.

The Eagles clearly made upgrading their offensive guards a priority this off-season, signing Brandon Brooks to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal to shore up the right side and adding Stefen Wisniewski on a one-year deal and Isaac Seumalo in the 3rd round of the draft (with their only other draft pick in the first 4 rounds) to compete with the incumbent Barbre. Barbre wasn’t horrible last season, finishing 43rd out of 81 eligible guards, but Wisniewski should be able to beat him out for the job. He’s going into his age 32 season, but has just 24 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, 16 of which came last season. On top of that, he’s only graded out above average just once in those 8 seasons.

Wisniewski, meanwhile, has made 77 starts in 5 years in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2011 and has generally been a solid starter, grading out 17th, 11th, 22nd, and 19th among centers from 2012-2015 respectively. The one concern is he hasn’t played left guard since he was a rookie and that was the worst season of his career. It’s possible he’s better the second time around at left guard, now that he’s no longer a rookie, but it’s also possible Barbre or Seumalo beat him out.

Unfortunately for Wisniewski, playing center isn’t an option in Philadelphia, barring injuries, as center Jason Kelce is one of the best centers in the league. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked center in 2013, #8 in 2014, and then #8 again last season. With improved play at the guard spots around him, he could be even better this season. New right guard Brandon Brooks should be a huge upgrade over Matt Tobin, even though Brooks is coming off of a down year. Even in his down year, he was better than Tobin, grading out 37th among guards last season. In 2013 and 2014 respectively, he graded out 8th and 10th respectively among guards.

While the Eagles’ got poor play at the guard position last season, the rest of their offensive line was really good. They had a strong offensive line going into training camp this off-season, but lost right tackle Lane Johnson for 10 games, after he failed his 2nd performance enhancing drugs test. Johnson is claiming he received a tainted supplement, but the suspension is unlikely to be overturned. It’s a huge loss for the Eagles. Johnson finished in the top-15 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and 2015 and could have had his best year yet in 2016, as the 2013 4th overall pick is only 26.

The Eagles were certainly betting on his best football being ahead of him, giving him a 5-year, 56.2 million dollar extension this off-season, with 2 years left on his rookie deal. It’s unclear how much of that extension is still guaranteed now and he faces an uncertain future with the team. If he can come back and play well in the final 6 games of the season, it’ll be a big boost, but, in the meantime, it looks like the Eagles will turn to Allen Barbre, at least to start the season. He also has experience at right tackle, but has never been good no matter where he’s played and isn’t getting better as he goes into his age 32 season. He’s a significant downgrade and could be pushed for snaps by 5th round rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai later in the season.

Fortunately, left tackle Jason Peters is also coming off of another strong season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked offensive tackle in 2015, which was actually a down year by his standards, as he was a top-4 offensive tackle in each of his previous 4 healthy seasons. That may be the beginning of the end for him though, as he heads into his age 34 season. The Eagles will have a big decision to make on Peters next off-season, as he’ll be owed a non-guaranteed 10.2 million in 2017 in his age 35 season. The long-term plan was to move Johnson to the left side in the next couple years, but the suspension obviously clouds things. All that being said, I do expect Peters to have another at least solid year on what should be an overall solid offensive line, though the loss of Johnson obviously hurts.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

With Chip Kelly getting fired and Doug Pederson coming in, the Eagles are also switching defensive coordinators, going from Billy Davis to Jim Schwartz. Davis’ defenses allowed some big numbers, but were never terrible, finishing 22nd in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013, 12th in 2014, and 22nd in 2015, as much of their apparent defensive struggles were as a result of Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense. Things will be easier on them with Doug Pederson coming in (though their offense won’t produce as many yards and points as a result). Davis to Schwartz is also a significant upgrade at defensive coordinator, as Davis’ defenses often seemed to underperform their talent, while Schwartz is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He’ll also transition them from a 3-4 to 4-3, which I think fits their personnel better.

One thing that won’t change is the fact that Fletcher Cox is the centerpiece of this front 7 and their best defensive player. The 12th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Cox has been successful both as a 4-3 defensive tackle and a 3-4 defensive end in his career, grading out 19th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a rookie in 2012, 13th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013, 5th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, and then 2nd among 3-4 defensive ends in 2015. A collegiate defensive tackle, Cox should have no problem switching back to a 4-3 in 2016 and is a great fit for Jim Schwartz’s defense. The Eagles clearly agree, giving him a massive 6-year, 103 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie contract in 2016.

On the outside, defensive end Brandon Graham should also be unaffected by the scheme change and may even be a better fit in a 4-3. He doesn’t get the attention that Cox does, but I’d argue he’s close to as important to this defense as Cox is, as Graham is one of the best outside pass rushers in the NFL. Despite being a first round pick in 2010, Graham was a bit of a late bloomer, struggling with injuries in the first 2 seasons of his career and not becoming an an every down player until last season.

Graham played just 435 snaps in 2012, 331 snaps in 2013, and 524 snaps in 2014, but, in all 3 seasons, no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at the position, meaning he was about as efficient on a per snap basis as anyone in the NFL. In 2015, he played a career high 856 snaps and finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 4-3 defensive end. Only going into his age 28 season and with no games missed due to injury over the past 4 seasons, I see no reason why he couldn’t be as good or better this season. Like Cox, he’s a great fit for Schwartz’s system.

The player who probably benefits the most from the scheme change is Vinny Curry, who has shown great pass rush ability from the interior in sub packages, grading out 8th, 9th, and 6th among 3-4 defensive ends in pass rush grade over the past 3 seasons respectively. However, he hasn’t shown the ability to hold up against the run as a 3-4 defensive end, predictable considering he’s undersized for the position 6-3 279. As a result, the 426 snaps he played last season were a career high for the 2012 2nd rounder and just 69 of his snaps came on run plays. Transitioning to a 4-3, the Eagles seem to have big plans for him, re-signing him for a whopping 47.25 million over 5 years this off-season. They wouldn’t be paying him that kind of money if he was going to remain purely a sub package interior pass rusher. He’ll probably also see significant snaps in base packages as a 4-3 defensive end and should hold up better against the run in the new scheme.

Curry will split snaps inside with Bennie Logan, a 6-2 315 pounder who is essentially the polar opposite of Curry, strong against the run, but not much of a pass rusher. Previously a nose tackle in Philadelphia’s 3-4, Logan isn’t a great fit for Schwartz’ scheme, but complements Curry well and should still provide valuable run stopping ability on early downs. He graded out 10th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in run stopping grade last season. Mike Martin will also provide depth at the defensive tackle position. Prior to Philadelphia, he spent the first 4 years of his career as a rotational defensive tackle in Tennessee, where he flashed in limited action, especially as a pass rusher. He’s solid depth.

Along with Graham and Curry, Connor Barwin will play a big role outside as a defensive end, converting from 3-4 outside linebacker, a position he’s played for 5 seasons. Barwin has reached double digit sacks in 2 of those 5 seasons, but isn’t very effective against the run, and has only graded out above average in 2 of 6 healthy seasons in the NFL. Barwin has been among the league leaders in snaps played among edge rushers over the past couple seasons, topping 1000+ snaps played in each of the last 2 seasons, but now, going into his age 30 season, at a loaded defensive end position, Barwin figures to see his snaps reduced. He’ll play primarily a sub package role as an edge rusher. He’s the one player negatively affected by the scheme switch.

Also in the mix for snaps at defensive end is Marcus Smith, a 2014 1st round pick who, thus far in his career, is one of the biggest busts in recent memory. Unable to impress his coaches enough to even get on the field, despite a first round pedigree, Smith has only played 205 snaps in 2 seasons in the league. Only going into his age 24 season, it’s possible that Smith turns it around in his 3rd year in the league, with a new coaching staff coming in and implementing a 4-3 scheme that he played in as a collegiate player at the University of Louisville. He also could struggle to see the field again, but the Eagles have enough depth on the defensive line that they can view anything they get from Smith as a bonus. It’s a loaded and deep defensive line across the board.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles sent Kiko Alonso to the Dolphins in the off-season trade that allowed them to move up from 13 to 8 in the draft and to dump Byron Maxwell and his 8.5 million dollar guaranteed salary for 2016 on the Dolphins. The Eagles replaced Alonso this off-season by signing Nigel Bradham, who ironically was the one who replaced Alonso in Buffalo, when Alonso tore his ACL prior to the 2014 season. Bradham finished that 2014 season as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, but had a down year in 2015, finishing the season 81st among 97 eligible linebackers.

As a result, the Eagles were able to sign him fairly inexpensively this off-season, bringing him in on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal. Last season was the first season of his career in which he graded out below average, as he flashed on 402 and 288 snaps respectively in 2012 and 2013, and he reunites with Jim Schwartz, who was his defensive coordinator in Buffalo in 2014, so there’s certainly a lot of bounce back potential here. He’ll primarily play a two-down role anyway and come off the field for a 5th defensive back in sub packages, which should make live easier for him.

Alonso wasn’t the only linebacker the Eagles lost this off-season, as they released DeMeco Ryans, owed 3.5 million non-guaranteed ahead of his age 32 season in 2016. He won’t be missed though, as Ryans was a shell of his former self last season (and really for the past couple seasons), finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 75th ranked linebacker out of 97 eligible. There’s a reason he’s still unsigned on the open market as of this writing. He’ll be replaced by Jordan Hicks, a 2015 3rd round pick who flashed on 459 snaps as a rookie when injuries struck the Eagles’ linebacking corps, before going down for the season with an injury of his own. He should be 100% recovered from that torn pectoral this season and, though he’s still unproven, the Eagles have big hopes for him as an every down middle linebacker. He was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked linebacker as a rookie.

Along with Hicks, Mychal Kendricks will also play every down at linebacker for the Eagles. Kendricks is commonly seen as one of the league’s better linebackers and he had a dominant season in 2014, finishing 6th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. However, he’s bookended that season with below average years in 2012, 2013, and then again in 2015, when he finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked linebacker out of 97 eligible. The Eagles, who gave Kendricks a 4-year, 29 million dollar extension last off-season, ahead of his contract year, are obviously going to be hoping for a bounce-back year from Kendricks, but it’s hard to know what they’re going to get from him, especially as he moves back to outside linebacker for the first time since his rookie season, when he especially struggled. WIth Bradham, Hicks, and Kendricks, it’s a trio with tremendous upside, but a relatively low floor as well.

The Eagles seem to recognize that and added veteran linebacker Stephen Tulloch for depth purposes. A cap casualty who wasn’t released by the Lions until late July, when he was finally healthy, Tulloch still managed to get 3 million from the Eagles on a 1-year deal, suggesting the Eagles are at least ready to start him if they need to. He’s purely a middle linebacker, but Hicks could play either outside linebacker spot if they needed him to, so Tulloch wouldn’t be purely a replacement for Hicks if he entered the starting lineup. Tulloch has experience with Jim Schwartz from Schwartz’s days as the head coach in Detroit, so there won’t be much of a learning curve for him, meaning he could end up starting sooner rather than later.

Tulloch started his career strong, grading above average in 6 of 7 seasons from 2007-2013, including a 2013 season in which he finished 2nd among middle linebackers for Schwartz’s Lions. However, he missed 13 games with a torn ACL in 2014, wasn’t the same in 2015, finishing below average, and then was released this off-season. Still only going into his age 31 season, there’s definitely bounce back potential here and he was a good, cheap depth signing, but he’s still hard to trust as a starter. It’s a solid linebacking corps overall though.

Grade: B+

Secondary

While the Eagles’ front 7 is an obvious strength, they have issues in the secondary, especially at cornerback. I mentioned that they unloaded Byron Maxwell in the Kiko Alonso trade, allowing them to get out of the 6-year, 63 million dollar deal that the Eagles foolishly signed him to under Chip Kelly’s watch last off-season. That’s a win just because they were able to get out of the remaining 11.5 million guaranteed on his contract (including his 8.5 million dollar salary in 2016), simply not worth it for a player who had one good year in Seattle and who finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ 75th ranked cornerback out of 111 eligible. Getting rid of him freed up valuable cap space.

However, they didn’t really do anything to replace him, so they’ll have to do so internally. Eric Rowe, their 2nd round pick last off-season, was the early favorite for the job, despite grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked cornerback out of 111 eligible on 503 snaps last season. However, he has reportedly had a bad off-season and will have to compete for snaps with a couple of ex-Buffalo cornerbacks in Leodis McKelvin and Ron Brooks, both of whom played under Schwartz in 2014.

Brooks only played 54 snaps last season and has largely been a special teamer in 4 years in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2012 (3 career starts), so McKelvin should be the favorite for the starting job, with Brooks likely being the 4th cornerback. However, McKelvin is heading into his age 31 season and has missed 30 games in 8 years in the league, including 7 last season. In the 9 games he played, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 83rd ranked cornerback out of 111 eligible on 388 snaps, leading to his release by the Bills. It’s possible Rowe could overtake him as the starter by mid-season.

Nolan Carroll, meanwhile, should remain the starter on the opposite side. He had a solid year last year before missing the final 5 games of the season with a broken ankle and has overall been a league average starter in 34 starts over the past 4 seasons. He’s an unspectacular player, but he might be their best cornerback and they were wise to bring him back on a cheap 1-year deal this off-season. However, when he’s your best cornerback, it’s a problem. It’s a position of weakness for the Eagles.

Fortunately, things are a lot better at safety, especially after the Eagles signed Rodney McLeod to a 5-year, 37 million dollar contract this off-season. McLeod has made all 48 starts over the past 3 seasons and has improved significantly in each of his 3 seasons as a starter. He graded out 75th among 86 eligible safeties in 2013, but has graded out above average in each of the past 2 seasons and finished 10th at the position in 2015. He’ll be a very valuable addition to this team, replacing the retired Walter Thurmond.

At the other safety spot, Malcolm Jenkins was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked safety in 2015. A 2009 1st round pick by the Saints, Jenkins had an inconsistent tenure in New Orleans, playing both cornerback and safety and having serious peaks and valleys in his play. However, he’s been great in 2 seasons in Philadelphia, grading out 19th and 2nd in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Ahead of the final year of the 3-year deal he signed with the Eagles two off-seasons ago, the Eagles gave Jenkins a 5-year, 40.5 million dollar extension this off-season, keeping him in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future. He and McLeod are both locked up long-term and are one of the best safety duos in the NFL. They’ll help mask some of the Eagles deficiencies at cornerback.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Eagles just barely missed out on winning the NFC East last season and I like a lot of what they did this off-season, to reinvent their roster and their coaching staff. They got rid of dead weight like DeMarco Murray and Byron Maxwell and locked up a lot of their young core. They also added right guard Brandon Brooks to fill a big hole upfront. On the other hand, they lost right tackle Lane Johnson to a 10-game suspension. They also spent most of their draft picks trading up to grab quarterback Carson Wentz, while sending away proven veteran Sam Bradford. However, I like the addition of Jim Schwartz on defense and I think overall this is the most talented roster in the NFC East and the team most likely to win the division and sneak into the playoffs.

Prediction: 9-7 1st in NFC East

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

After finishing the 2014 season tied for the worst record in the league at just 2-14, the Buccaneers took a big step forward in 2015, winning 6 games. It wasn’t a great season, but it certainly gives them a lot of hope for the future. The offense was easily the biggest reason for their improvement, as they went from 28th in rate of moving the chains in 2014 to 8th in 2015. An improvement was bound to happen, given that they used the #1 pick on quarterback Jameis Winston out of Florida State, but that big of an improvement is really remarkable. No other offense had as big of an improvement from 2014 to 2015 as the Buccaneers.

Winston wasn’t great, but he was impressive for a rookie, completing 58.3% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while adding 6 touchdowns and 213 yards on 54 carries. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked quarterback, just slightly below offense. He’s still only going into his age 22 season and has immense upside so I expect him to be better in his 2nd year in the league in 2016. A top-15 season is a pretty reasonable estimate for him this season.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the passing game was certainly better under Winston in 2015 than it was in 2014, the running game was where the Buccaneers’ biggest improvement was, thanks to an improbable huge season from running back Doug Martin. He rushed for 1402 yards and 6 touchdowns on 288 carries, an average of 4.87 YPC. He finished 2nd in rushing yards to Adrian Peterson, but Peterson had 39 more carries than Martin and only 83 more yards to show for it and Martin’s YPC average was best among running backs with more than 200 carries. He was also Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked running back among players who played as many snaps as he did. Le’Veon Bell was #1 overall, but sent most of the year injured; Martin played all 16 games, totalling 633 snaps.

Martin also had a great year as a 1st round rookie in 2012, rushing for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries (4.56 YPC) and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked running back, but his 2015 was still improbable because of how disappointing he was in 2013 and 2014. Struggling with conditioning and durability issues, Martin was limited to just 17 games over those 2 seasons and rushed for a combined for 950 yards and 3 touchdowns on 261 attempts (3.64 YPC), less combined than he had as a rookie, grading out well below average in both seasons. He was the Robert Griffin of running backs.

Martin showed what he can do when he’s right last season, but he’s had injury problems dating back to his collegiate days and it’s hard to trust him to have back-to-back top level seasons. Fortunately, the Buccaneers didn’t have to pay too much to keep him as a free agent this off-season, giving him 35.75 million over 5 seasons, a good value considering DeMarco Murray got 40 million over 5 years from the Eagles last off-season and Chris Ivory got 32 million over 5 years from the Jaguars this off-season. His upside alone makes him worth that contract and another strong season is certainly a possibility.

Martin wasn’t the Buccaneers’ only good running back last season, as #2 running back Charles Sims, a 2014 3rd round pick, had a bit of a breakout year on 107 carries, rushing for 529 yards, while catching 51 passes for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 4.94 YPC is a bit misleading because he was the passing down back and played almost exclusively against defenses expecting the pass, playing in sub packages against 3+ wide receivers. However, he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked running back on 457 snaps. Martin’s not a great pass catcher, so Sims is obviously locked into the passing down role again, but could also have a larger role as a runner, at the expense of Doug Martin’s carries, in an effort to keep Martin fresh long-term. Any way you look at it, the Buccaneers have a two headed monster at running back that most teams would envy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Despite the offense’s overall improvement, the Buccaneers’ receiving corps was actually worse last season than it was in 2014, when Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were one of four wide receiver duos to both top 1000 yards. Evans still topped 1000 yards and the 2014 #7 overall pick actually improved on his rookie numbers with 74 catches for 1206 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he caught just 50.3% of his targets and led the league with 11 drops. As a result, he fell from 13th to 19th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Still, it was a strong season for a player who is still only going into his age 23 season and could have a huge breakout year in 2016. If Winston takes a step forward as well, Evans could be a top-5 receiver in terms of receiving yards in 2016, after coming in 11th in 2015.

Jackson didn’t even come close to his 2014 numbers, catching just 33 passes for 543 yards and 3 touchdowns in 10 games in an injury plagued 2015 season. He still graded out above average for the 9th straight season, dating back to Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007, but a down year like that is definitely a concern, given that he’s going into his age 33 season. Charles Sims is a good pass catching back, but the Buccaneers probably don’t want him finishing 2nd on the team in catches and receiving yards again in 2016, so the Buccaneers will need a strong season from the declining Jackson. Adam Humphries is the 3rd receiver, but he was unimpressive on 437 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2015, so they don’t have much depth at behind Evans and Jackson.

Along with Jackson, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins also missed a lot of time with injury last season, missing 9 games with a shoulder injury, after missing 7 games with injury as a 2nd round rookie in 2014. This off-season, he’s reportedly been unimpressive. He still has upside, flashing on 218 snaps last season, but his star is a lot dimmer than it was 2 years ago when he came into the league. He’ll face competition for his starting job from Cameron Brate, a 2014 undrafted free agent who was alright on 348 snaps in 2015 and made 4 starts in ASJ’s absence. Either player will be at best the 4th option in the passing game behind Evans, Jackson, and passing down back Sims in a solid receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The only weak unit on Tampa Bay’s offense is their offensive line. The Buccaneers basically had completely different starting offensive tackles between 2014 and 2015, as left tackle Anthony Collins was released, while right tackle Demar Dotson was limited to 201 snaps by injury. Instead, 2nd round rookie Donovan Smith and veteran Gosder Cherilus started. Smith wasn’t any worse than Collins, who struggled mightily in 2014, but he wasn’t any better either, finishing 71st out of 77 eligible offensive tackles. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be good. Meanwhile, Cherilus wasn’t much better on the right side, finishing 58th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles, but he was replacing a much better player in DeMar Dotson.

Dotson is supposedly healthy going into 2016, which would be a huge boost for the Buccaneers. Prior to 2015, he made 48 out of 48 possible starts from 2012-2014 and, even in any injury plagued season in 2015, he still graded out above average, making it 4 straight seasons in which he’s finished above average on Pro Football Focus. He maxed out at 14th in 2013. Going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point, but he should still be a solid player and a big re-addition. The Buccaneers were confident enough in him to give him a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been a contract year in 2016.

Dotson isn’t the only starting offensive lineman to be coming off of an injury, as veteran center Evan Smith was limited to 386 snaps by injuries this season, splitting time between guard and center. A natural center, Smith should make all 16 starts there if healthy in 2016 and has decent bounce back potential, even if he is heading into his age 30 season, as he’s graded out above average in 3 straight seasons. If healthy, he’d be a big upgrade over Joe Hawley, who was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked center out of 39 eligible in 2015. Hawley fits best as a reserve at both center and guard.

While the Buccaneers do get Dotson and Smith back this season, they also lost left guard Logan Mankins to retirement this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season. Despite his age, he was arguably their best offensive lineman in 2015, ending the year as Pro Football Focus 13th ranked guard. The Buccaneers signed ex-Seahawk JR Sweezy to a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal to replace Mankins, but he’s a major downgrade. He’s made 49 starts in 4 seasons in the league, since getting drafted in the 7th round in 2012, but he’s graded out below average in all 4 of those seasons. The Buccaneers definitely overpaid for him. He’s also dealing with a back injury that puts his status for the start of the season into question.

Rounding out the offensive line is 2nd year guard Ali Marpet. Unlike fellow 2nd round pick Donovan Smith, Marpet played well as a rookie, grading out above average and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked guard. The Buccaneers will need him to take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league with Mankins gone, as Marpet might be their best offensive lineman right now. He’s certainly their most promising, though he’s still unproven. He’s mostly their best offensive lineman by default. It’s a weak offensive line overall.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the offense was much improved in 2015, the defense was still horrible. Part of the reason was disappointing play by their two defensive stars: defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and outside linebacker Lavonte David. I’ll get into David in the linebackers section, but McCoy is an obvious bounce back candidate. The 3rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, McCoy was a top-2 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in 2012, 2013, and 2014, the only defensive tackle in the league who could say that. However, he fell much closer to middle of the pack in 2015, thanks to a shoulder injury he suffered early in the season. Injuries were a problem for him early in his career, but he should be healthy again in 2016 and, just going into his age 28 season, McCoy could easily be one of the top defensive tackles in the game again. That would obviously be a huge boost for this Tampa Bay defense.

The addition of defensive end Robert Ayers in free agency should also be a huge boost for this Tampa Bay defense. A 2009 1st round pick, Ayers looked like a bust early in his career in Denver, but he has very quietly turned his career around since moving from 3-4 outside linebacker to 4-3 defensive end, ranking in the top-14 at his position in 3 straight seasons. Last season was probably the best of his career, as he ranked 8th overall among edge defenders. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he was an absolute steal on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He and McCoy have the potential to be a very formidable inside/outside duo.

The Buccaneers also added Eastern Kentucky defensive end Noah Spence in the 2nd round, though he’s obviously far less proven. Spence will compete with veteran holdovers William Gholston and Jacquies Smith for playing time. Gholston played well last season and should at least be nominally the starter opposite Ayers to begin the season. The 2013 4th round pick graded out below average on 320 snaps and 587 snaps respectively in the first 2 seasons of his career, but finished above average on 675 snaps in 2015. He could have another solid season in 2016 and is at least a capable starter. Smith, however, was horrible in 2015, grading out 101st among 110 eligible edge defenders on snaps. The 2012 undrafted free agent has never graded out above average in 4 seasons in the league. There’s a reason they added, not just Ayers, but Spence too. Spence could easily open the year as the 3rd defensive end.

Unlike at defensive end, the Buccaneers did not add anyone at defensive tackle this off-season and actually lost veterans Henry Melton and Tony McDaniel. However, they were both terrible last season so that’s actually addition by subtraction and they also get veterans Clinton McDonald and Akeem Spence back from injury, which is addition by re-addition. McDonald is the better of the two, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, including last season on 153 snaps in just 8 games. The 6-2 297 pounder excels against the run and should get his old base package job back.

Spence, meanwhile, has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, but even he was better than Melton and McDaniel last season. Still, finishing 91st out of 123 eligible defensive tackles is not good and he also missed 10 games with injury. He’s a weak counterpart to McDonald even if he is, by default, an upgrade over what they had last season. The Buccaneers also have a pair of defensive ends in Robert Ayers and William Gholston that are big enough to rush the passer from the inside in sub packages (6-3 275 and 6-6 281 respectively), with Spence then coming in as an edge rusher in sub packages. It should be a vastly improved defensive line with Ayers coming in and McCoy getting healthy.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

As I mentioned, outside linebacker Lavonte David also had a disappointing year in 2015. A top-7 4-3 outside linebacker in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, David also fell much closer to middle of the pack in 2015, after signing a big 5-year, 50 million dollar extension last off-season. Like McCoy, he’s got a great chance for a bounce back year in 2016. The Buccaneers will need him to do just that. He’s only one of their best players at his best, but the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is a big problem.

The Buccaneers signed ex-Raven Daryl Smith to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season. He’s played 48 out of 48 possible games as an every down middle linebacker over the past 3 seasons, but is expected to play the other outside linebacker spot opposite David in Tampa Bay for 3 reasons. The first is that the Buccaneers run a 4-3, while Baltimore runs a 3-4, and Smith’s original professional position was 4-3 outside linebacker, prior to moving to middle linebacker in Baltimore’s 3-4.

The second reason is that Smith struggled mightily in 2015, finishing 71st out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus, leading to his release by the Ravens. That’s just the 2nd time he’s graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ history, but, now going into his age 34 season, it’s very possible that Smith is at the end of his line. Fortunately, the other outside linebacker job is primarily a base package job, meaning he’d mainly see snaps on run plays and come off the field for a 5th defensive back in obvious passing situations.

The third reason Smith will play outside is that the Buccaneers already have Kwon Alexander locked into the starting every down job at middle linebacker, going into his 2nd year in the league. The 2015 4th round pick has more upside than Smith, but was even worse than Smith was in 2015, finishing his rookie season 96th out of 97 eligible linebackers in 12 games, before being suspended for the final 4 games of the season for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. The Buccaneers still like him long-term, but he could easily struggle again in 2016. Regardless of whether or not David has a bounce back year, this should still be a below average group, though a big year from David would obviously be huge for this defense overall.

Grade: C

Secondary

As bad as the Buccaneers’ defense was overall in 2015, cornerback was easily their worst position, with Johnthan Banks, Alterraun Verner, Mike Jenkins, and Jude Adjei-Barimah all finished in the bottom-30 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. The Buccaneers added both veteran Brent Grimes and rookie Vernon Hargreaves this off-season and they’ll both start in 2016. Hargreaves was the 11th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, while Grimes comes over on a 2-year, 13.5 million dollar deal.

Like Daryl Smith, Grimes is an aging player, going into his age 33 season, but he’s coming off of a much better season, finishing 41st among cornerbacks. Gone are the days of him grading out 2nd like he did in 2013 or 3rd like he did in 2011, but he’s graded out above average in 5 of the last 6 seasons and could easily have another solid season in 2016. That’s certainly not a guarantee at this stage of his career, but, at the very least, both he and Hargreaves should be massive upgrades at the starting spots for Tampa Bay.

Despite the fact that only 2 million of his 6.75 million dollar salary is guaranteed in 2016, the Buccaneers did not release Alterraun Verner after adding Grimes and Hargreaves, suggesting they still have a role for the veteran, probably as the 3rd cornerback, though he could conceivably begin the season as the starter instead of the rookie Hargreaves. Verner struggled mightily last season like all of Tampa Bay’s corners, grading out 91st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but he’s the only one of them with any bounce back potential.

A 2009 4th round pick, Verner was the only cornerback to grade out in the top-25 among cornerbacks in every season from 2009-2014, prior to last season’s disappointing year. A lot of that is because of how good he is against the run, but he still graded out above average in coverage in all 6 of those seasons. Last season, he didn’t do well in coverage or against the run, but, only going into his age 28 season, he definitely has some bounce back potential. Given that and the additions of Grimes and Hargreaves, this looks like a much improved group of cornerbacks in 2016.

At safety, incumbent starters Chris Conte and Bradley McDougald return. Conte was the better of the two in 2015 by a significant margin, finishing 32nd among safeties on Pro Football Focus. He’s a one-year wonder though, grading out below average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career from 2011-2014, after getting drafted in the 3rd round in 2011 by the Bears. He could have another solid season and prove to be a late bloomer, but I’d bet against it right now. He’s locked into the starting job either way though.

McDougald, on the other hand, struggled in his first season as a starter in 2015, grading out 65th among 89 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus in 15 starts. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 455 snaps (5 starts) in 2014 in the first significant action of his career, but was overstretched in a larger role. The Buccaneers don’t have a better option, so he’ll remain the starter in 2016. The Buccaneers’ safeties are not as good as their cornerbacks, but it’s a capable and overall improved secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense could take a step forward this season with 2nd year quarterback Jameis Winston under center, but where they’re most improved overall is on defense. Robert Ayers, Brent Grimes, and Vernon Hargreaves enter, while Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are obvious bounce back candidates. Defense was definitely their biggest problem last season, as they finished 8th in rate of moving the chains, but 31st in rate of moving the chains allowed. An improved defense should allow this team to take the next step right into the playoff mix, after improving from 2 wins to 6 wins last season.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in NFC South

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New Orleans Saints 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Drew Brees has gotten lost in the discussion about the top quarterbacks in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, with guys like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, etc getting most of the attention, but Brees has been as good as any of those quarterbacks and as valuable to his team as any of those quarterbacks over the past 2 seasons. He’s completed 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.64 YPA, 65 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions over the past 2 seasons, while leading the Saints to a #2 finish in rate of moving the chains in 2014 and then another #2 finish in that measure in 2015. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked quarterback in 2014 and their 6th ranked quarterback in 2015.

Brees has had an incredible career in general, completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 428 touchdowns, and 205 interceptions in his career, while currently ranking 4th all-time in passing yards and 3rd all-time in passing touchdowns, two numbers he could easily add to significantly going forward. He’s also played in 174 out of 176 possible regular season games in the last 11 seasons. The reason he’s been getting overlooked over the past couple seasons, despite his likely Hall-of-Fame career, is the fact that the Saints have gone just 14-18 combined over the past 2 seasons, missing the playoffs both times.

That’s not Brees’ fault though, as the defense has finished dead last in rate of moving the chains allowed in both 2014 and 2015. In fact, Brees has been carrying this team. His age is becoming a concern though, as he goes into his age 37 season. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer play at a high level into their mid-30s in recent years, but everyone declines sooner or later. Manning reminded us last season that it can happen in the blink of an eye. Going into the final year of his contract, it’s also possible that this is Brees’ final season in New Orleans.

Most around the team expect him to inevitably sign a short-term extension with the Saints. There are just too many reasons to do it. Obviously Brees wants more long-term assurances and guarantees than he has now, as he heads into his late 30s. The Saints, meanwhile, want to lower his cap hit for 2016, which is currently at 30 million and would undoubtedly go down with an extension. Plus, Brees is far too valuable to this team. Given the lack of talent around Brees on this team, especially on defense, this would almost definitely be a last place team without Brees. With him playing at a high level, they at least have a shot at a playoff chance. Regardless of what happens contract wise, Brees will be here in 2016 and the Saints will pray he keeps up his high level of play. It’s one of the few things this team has going for them.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another thing the Saints have going for them on offense is 4th year left tackle Terron Armstead, a 2013 3rd round pick. Since becoming a full-time starter prior to the 2014 season, Armstead has made 27 starts in 2 seasons, finishing 27th among offensive tackles in 2014 and 3rd among offensive tackles in 2015, a major breakout year. Given how valuable top level left tackles are, the Saints didn’t let Armstead get anywhere near the open market, locking him up on a 5-year, 64.5 million dollar extension, ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2016. He’s a one-year wonder as a top player, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and he’s gotten better in every year he’s been in the league, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Armstead plays at a high level for 4-5 years.

The rest of the Saints’ offensive line is pretty solid as well and the unit is one of the Saints’ strengths. With the exception of right guard, the Saints have proven starters at every position on the offensive line, starting Tim Lelito at left guard, Max Unger at center, and Zach Strief at right tackle. Strief’s an aging veteran, going into his age 33 season, but he’s probably the best of the bunch. A late bloomer, Strief has made 69 starts in 5 seasons since becoming a starter in 2011 and has finished in the top-23 of offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 4 of those seasons, including each of the last 3.

The Saints drafted Stanford offensive tackle Andrus Peat 13th overall in 2015 to be Strief’s eventual replacement, but, for now, he’ll need to lock down a starting job at right guard, after struggling on 426 snaps as a rookie, between guard and tackle, as a 6th offensive lineman who came in when injuries struck. Now with long-time starting right guard Jahri Evans gone, Peat will compete with veteran Senio Kelemete, a career backup with 5 career starts in 4 years in the league. Kelemete struggled in limited action last season and Peat, with his first round pedigree, should be considered the heavy favorite. Whether he plays well or not remains to be seen, but he has the ability to be much better in his 2nd year in the league.

Tim Lelito and Max Unger round out the offensive line. Lelito had somewhat of a breakout year in his first year as a starter in 2015, as he made 13 starts and finished 28th among guards on Pro Football Focus. Whether he can keep that up remains to be seen. Lelito went undrafted in 2013 and made just 4 starts in his first 2 years in the league, struggling mightily on 456 snaps between guard and center in those two seasons. If he has another good year, he could get a significant contract next off-season as a free agent.

Unger, meanwhile, was going into his contract year as well, but received a 3-year, 22 million dollar extension this off-season. Even ahead of his age 30 season, it’s a solid value. The 2009 2nd round pick has graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league, finishing 14th last season and maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 center in 2012. Unger played all 16 games in 2015, after an injury plagued 2014 season, and should be a solid starter at the very least again in 2016. It’s an overall very solid Saints’ offensive line, highlighted by All-Pro caliber left tackle Terron Armstead.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The guard has officially changed at wide receiver for the Saints, as 10-year veteran Marques Colston was let go this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 33 season. Colston had spent 10 years with the Saints since they took him in the 7th round in 2006 and is the Saints’ all-time leader in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, but he remains unsigned as of this writing. There’s a reason for that, as he struggled in 2015, catching just 45 passes and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked wide receiver out of 121 eligible on 569 snaps as the 3rd receiver. His rapid decline was the start of the change of the guard, but his release makes it official.

Colston was replaced immediately when the Saints used their 2nd round pick on Ohio State’s Michael Thomas, who will spend his rookie year as the 3rd receiver, playing primarily in the “big slot” role that Colston excelled in for many years. The 6-3 212 pound Thomas has a similar frame to Colston, who played last season at 6-4 225, but is obviously much younger with much more upside. He has a chance to be an immediate upgrade. The addition of Thomas also means that the Saints’ top-3 receivers all have 2 years or less of NFL experience going in 2016. It’s a stark contrast to the aging Brees, but it has a chance to be very effective if Brees can still play at a high level and the young players play up to their potential.

Incumbent starters Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead are the “veterans” of the trio, as both came out of college in 2014 and both are going into their 3rd year in the league. They couldn’t have taken different paths to get to this point though, as Cooks was a 2014 1st round pick who was anointed the #1 receiver before the 2015 season started, after flashing in 10 games as a rookie, while Snead spent all of 2014 on the practice squad as an undrafted free agent and beat the odds in a big way to make 9 starts in 15 games in 2015. He’ll have a chance to start all 16 in 2016 if he can stay healthy.

Cooks had the better overall numbers last season, putting up a slash line of 84/1138/9, while Snead put up 69/984/3. However, Snead actually graded out slightly higher on Pro Football Focus, finishing 30th, while Cooks came in 35th. The reason for that is because Snead ran more than 100 fewer routes, as he didn’t get significant playing time until about a month into the season. Snead was better on a per route and per target basis and likely would have led the team in receiving had he gotten as much playing time as Cooks did in 2015. My pick to lead the team in receiving this year is Cooks, just because the former 1st round has higher upside as a player and is long-term going to be a better player, but the Saints have a good duo in Cooks and Snead because both are solid young players. Thomas has upside behind them too as the #3 receiver, though it’s hard to count on rookies.

Thomas wasn’t the Saints’ only off-season addition, as the Saints brought in Coby Fleener, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts, on a 5-year, 36 million dollar deal. Fleener, a 2012 2nd round pick, has just 157 catches over the past 3 seasons, but has graded out above average in all 3 seasons. His production has been somewhat limited by the fact that he spent most of Indianapolis in a timeshare with Dwayne Allen, not playing full starter snaps as tight end 1b to Allen’s 1a. The starting job is all Fleener’s in New Orleans, as #2 tight end Josh Hill has been underwhelming in 900 career snaps in 3 years in the league, since going undrafted in 2013.

Fleener also is coming into what has historically been a very tight end friendly offense. Aging tight end Ben Watson caught 74 passes for 825 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, before signing with the Ravens as a free agent this off-season. Fleener has only once graded out above average as a run blocker and might have been overpaid, but he’ll be an upgrade on Watson and have a big role in the offense. He’s not Jimmy Graham, but he could come close to his numbers. Graham averaged about 1,100 receiving yards per year in his final 4 years in New Orleans. Fleener could end up in the 900-1000 yard range on an offense that could have 3 receivers all around that range or possibly even higher. The passing offense has potential, but the engine that makes it go is Drew Brees and not the receivers and Brees is getting up there in age.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Saints seemingly had a “three-headed monster” at running back going into last season, with Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller getting significant contracts in free agency and backup Khiry Robinson showing promise in limited action. That didn’t really work out. Ingram missed 4 games with injury, Spiller 3 games, and Robinson 8 games. In fact, by the end of the season Tim Hightower and Travaris Cadet were seeing significant snaps. Cadet is a career backup with less than 100 career touches, while Hightower had been out of the league since 2011 with knee problems. Hightower actually finished 2nd on the team in carries with 96, turning them into 375 yards and 4 touchdowns (3.91 YPC).

Ingram once again led the way with 166 carries in the 12 games he did play. He fared pretty well, rushing for 769 yards and 6 touchdowns (4.63 YPC), while finishing 33rd among running backs on Pro Football Focus. He’s always played well when healthy, with a career 4.27 YPC average, but injuries have always been a problem for him, as the 2011 1st round pick has missed 18 games with injury in 5 years in the league and only once played more than 13 games, way back in 2012.

His career high is 226 carries, meaning the Saints will need Hightower as a backup to take over for Ingram if he gets hurt and give him a breather on early downs. Hightower essentially moves into the Khiry Robinson role in the Saints’ 2nd attempt at a three-headed monster at running back. I wouldn’t be confident in him, considering he has an extensive injury history, averaged just 3.91 YPC last season, and is already going into his age 30 season. He’s an incredible story, but he’s far from an incredible football player at this stage in his career.

CJ Spiller will be given a chance to regain the role he was supposed to have going into last season, but it’s unclear if he has it in him to earn the role. Spiller, signed to a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal last off-season, was supposed to explode statistically in New Orleans’ offense in the old Darren Sproles role; Most expected 60+ catches. Instead, Spiller missed 3 games with injury and was limited in many others, totalling just 70 touches on 200 snaps. Spiller was one of the best all-around backs in the league in 2012, but he’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 3 straight seasons and has just 167 touches in 22 games over the past 2 seasons. Going into his age 29 season, it’s possible he just doesn’t have it physically anymore. His 3.225 million dollar salary is guaranteed, so he should keep his roster spot, but I wouldn’t expect much from him.

He’s seemingly a perfect New Orleans running back because this team has always passed much more than they’ve run, even when they’ve been good on the ground. The Saints have averaged 662 pass attempts per season over the past 6 seasons. Last season, New Orleans running backs caught 127 passes, led by Ingram’s 50. The targets will be there for the taking again in 2016. However, Ingram should get the bulk of the catches over Spiller again. It’s a capable group of backs on an offense that has a solid supporting cast around the quarterback, but that really needs the quarterback to play at a high level if they’re going to finish among the best offenses in the league for the 3rd straight season. And the Saints will need to if they’re going to have any prayer of making the playoffs, given the sorry state of their defense.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

That sorry New Orleans defense has finished in dead last in rate of moving the chains allowed in back-to-back seasons and was undoubtedly the least talented defense in the league going into the off-season. They didn’t add a ton in free agency and should finish among the league’s worst defenses once again. The Saints have a league high 29 million in dead money on their cap this season, which really thins their roster. The defense has been hit the hardest by far, the result of aggressive free agent signings in past years that did not pan out.

Let’s start with the good on defense though, as they do have a couple really good players, including defensive end Cameron Jordan. Jordan was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked edge defender last season and their 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, but has been very inconsistent in 5 years in the league. The 2011 1st round pick has graded out below average in his other 3 seasons. He’s no guarantee to be dominant again in 2015, but he’s been dominant in two of the last three seasons. The Saints clearly value him long-term, re-signing him to a 5-year, 55 million dollar extension last year before his huge 2015 season, which otherwise would have been a contract year. Only going into his age 27 season, another huge year could be in the cards for him. The big 6-4 287 pounder will also frequently move inside and rush the passer from the interior in sub packages.

The rest of the defensive end depth chart is not nearly as good. Veteran Paul Kruger is easily their best pure defensive end, even though he was released by the Browns before final cuts, coming off of a down year and owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in his age 30 season in 2016. He just arrived in New Orleans, but will be counted on for a big role. He was a nice, cheap signing, as he undoubtedly will make significantly less than 6.5 million in 2016 and he has bounce back potential, as he was a top-20 3-4 outside linebacker in 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014, prior to finishing below average last season.

WIth Jordan mostly playing inside in sub packages, Obum Gwacham, Davis Tull, and Kasim Edebali will compete for pass rush snaps off the edge with Kruger. Gwacham and Tull were 6th and 5th round picks respectively in 2015 (Gwacham by the Seahawks before ending up in New Orleans). Even though Tull was higher drafted, Gwacham was the only one to see action as a rookie, but he played just 98 snaps. Edebali, a 2014 undrafted free agent, is the most experienced one by far, but struggled mightily on 361 snaps in 2015, grading out 103th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on Pro Football Focus. None of the trio figures to be much of a threat off the edge, so they need a big year from Kruger.

Things are much better at defensive tackle though. Not only does Jordan often rush the passer from the interior, the Saints also added Louisville defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins in the first round of the draft and veteran defensive tackle Nick Fairley in free agency. Rankins was a great pick at #12 overall, as he was arguably the top defensive tackle in the draft class, and Fairley was also a great deal on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. After spending the first 4 years of his career in Detroit, Fairley spent last season with the Rams.

A 2011 1st round pick, it’s hard to call Fairley a bust considering he’s graded out above average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league, including 23rd among interior defenders last season. At the same time, it’s also worth noting that Fairley has missed 19 games with injury over those 5 seasons and has just 30 career starts. He’s averaged 432 snaps per season in his career and played just 422 snaps last season in 15 games (0 starts) with the Rams. He’s a talented player, but weight and conditioning problems have always kept him from his potential.

He has an opportunity to have a big year in New Orleans with little competition for playing time, but probably won’t end up playing much more than 500-600 snaps once again. Most of the players who saw snaps at defensive tackle for the Saints last season were horrible, so Fairley and Rankins are huge upgrades. The one issue is Rankins broke his leg this off-season and is questionable for the start of the season. On a largely talentless defense, they need him back as soon as possible.

The one defensive tackle who wasn’t terrible for the Saints last season was John Jenkins, as the 6-3 329 pounder graded out just below average on 532 snaps, primarily playing as a base package run stuffer. He’s graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, since the Saints drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013, and the 532 snaps he played last season were a career high, but he’s never been terrible and should be solid in another 300-500 snap role as primarily a base package run stuffer. It’s an improved, but still problematic defensive line.

Grade: C

Linebackers

As you can imagine, given how bad their defense as a whole performed last season, the Saints’ linebacking corps has plenty of issues as well. Stephone Anthony was a first round pick by the Saints in 2015 (with the pick they acquired in the Jimmy Graham trade), but he struggled mightily as an every down middle linebacker as a rookie, grading out 79th out of 97 eligible linebackers. He’s expected to move to outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2016. He has the potential to be much better in his 2nd year in the league, but much better than his horrible rookie year still might not be good and there’s still a chance his struggles continues. Obviously it’s too early to write off a player with a first round pedigree, but his career is not off to a good start.

The reason the Saints are moving Anthony outside is because they added a pair of veteran middle linebackers through free agency, adding ex-Ram James Laurinaitis and ex-Brown Craig Robertson. Laurinaitis is a big name, but he’s going into his age 30 season and has graded out below average in 4 straight seasons since signing a 5-year, 41.5 million dollar extension with the Rams before the 2012 season. The Rams released him this off-season, getting out of the 12.5 million non-guaranteed remaining over the final 2 years of his contract, following a horrendous 2015 season in which he finished 83rd out of 97 eligible linebackers. Even on a 3-year, 8.25 million dollar deal, the Saints overpaid him.

Laurinaitis has always been an every down middle linebacker and hasn’t missed a game in 7 years in the league, but Robertson could still have a role. After struggling mightily in the first 2 seasons of his career, Robertson actually graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, excelling in coverage. He’s plenty experienced with 37 career starts and would be a better starter than Laurinaitis, but he’s unlikely to win that job, given that Laurinaitis got more from the Saints in free agency (Robertson got just 5 million over 3 years). He’ll likely have to settle for a sub package, coverage specialist role at either middle linebacker or outside linebacker.

In base packages, Dannell Ellerbe is expected to be the starter on the other side outside. That is, of course, if he can stay healthy. Ellerbe has been limited to 7 games by injury in the last 2 seasons and was Pro Football Focus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013. He was a valuable part of the Ravens’ Super Bowl team in 2012, which landed him a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal the following off-season, but he’s graded out below average in his other 6 seasons and isn’t getting any better, coming off of two injury plagued seasons going into his age 31 season. He’s missed a total of 44 games with injury in 7 years in the league. Ellerbe’s had to take pay cuts to stay with the Saints in back-to-back off-seasons and has a tenuous grasp on even the two-base package role. Here’s somewhere where Robertson could see playing time. It’s very possible the Saints reshuffle roles in their linebacking corps on multiple occasions in 2016, as they try to make the best of a shaky group.

Grade: D

Secondary

When talking about Cameron Jordan earlier, I mentioned he was one of a couple of good players the Saints have on defense. The other is cornerback Delvin Breaux and his story is pretty incredible. A highly recruited high school player committed to LSU, Breaux fractured two vertebrae in his back in a high school game in his senior year and never played at LSU, though his scholarship was honored and he served as a player/coach. After LSU, Breaux worked his way up from semi-pro football to the arena league to Canadian football to a contract with his hometown Saints last off-season. On an otherwise dreadful New Orleans defense, Breaux finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked cornerback. He’s obviously a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could easily have another strong season in 2016.

Safety Jairus Byrd has the potential to have a strong season in 2016. Byrd was signed to a 6-year, 54 million dollar deal by the Saints two off-seasons ago, after finishing as a top-8 safety in each of the previous 3 seasons, but he missed all but 4 games with injury in 2014 and then was just average in 13 games in 2015. He’s not great anymore, but he’s sadly one of the Saints’ best defensive players. The Saints used a 2nd round pick on Ohio State safety Vonn Bell in this past draft, so that should put some pressure on Byrd to bounce back. Owed 8.3 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2017, this could be Byrd’s final season in New Orleans

Fellow starting safety Kenny Vaccaro also has the potential to be good this season. He was good last year, finishing 27th among safeties, but he’s been very inconsistent in his 3-year career. He finished 23rd among safeties as a rookie, but fell to 85th out of 87 eligible safeties in his 2nd year in the league in 2014, getting benched down the stretch. Perhaps that year was a fluke, given that it was bookended by a couple of strong seasons and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, but it was a horrible fluke and it’s hard to trust the 2013 1st round pick in his 4th year in the league in 2016.

The rest of the Saints’ cornerbacks are not good though. Second year player PJ Williams, who missed his entire rookie season with injury after going in the 3rd round, will start opposite Breaux, with veteran Cortland Finnegan playing the slot. Finnegan used to be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL, but graded out well below average in every season from 2012-2014. Cut by the Rams following the 2013 season and the Dolphins following the 2014 season, Finnegan briefly retired last off-season, before playing alright on 213 snaps for the Panthers as a mid-season signing in 2015. Going into his age 32 season, Finnegan was signed before the season started this year, but just barely, as he went unsigned until mid-August. Despite that, he figures to have a big role with another 2nd year player, Damian Swann, out for the year with injury. By default, the secondary is the best unit on New Orleans’ defense, but their defense is probably the worst in the league overall.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Saints’ offense should be good once again, but they really don’t have a lot of talent, on either side of the ball, other than aging quarterback Drew Brees. Their defense is arguably the worst in the league, while the offensive supporting cast around Brees is solid, but nothing more. If Brees shows his age in his age 37 season in 2016, this team is likely going to be one of the worst in the league. If Brees can continue to play at a high level, this team at least has a shot at the playoffs, but it’s a long-shot even if he plays really well.

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in NFC South

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Atlanta Falcons 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

Quarterback

It may be hard to believe, but Matt Ryan, once one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, is already going into his age 31 season and his 9th year in the league. The 2008 3rd overall pick has made 126 out of 128 possible starts in those 8 seasons in the league and has completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 202 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in his career. His numbers weren’t bad in 2015 either, as he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, but he had his worst QB rating since his 2nd year in the league in 2009 and finished just 20th in the NFL in QB rating.

Many people blame his disappointing numbers on a bad marriage between him and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who took over as offensive coordinator last off-season, after Dirk Koetter spent 3 years in the role. However, I think the bigger reason he had a down year statistically was a weak receiving corps. Ryan actually finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback, the 5th time in 8 years in the league in which he’s finished in the top-10 quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s also graded out above average in all 8 seasons. He should play well again in 2015, but needs more help from his receivers.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

It might sound weird to say the Falcons had issues in the receiving corps last season, given that Julio Jones caught 136 passes for 1871 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2015, finishing 1st in the NFL receiving yards and 2nd overall among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. However, they really lacked depth behind him. Jones was targeted on 204 of 621 pass attempts, about 32.9% (highest in the NFL by a single player), while running back Devonta Freeman was 2nd on the team with 73 catches on 97 targets. Among wide receivers, Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson were 2nd and 3rd on the team with 43 and 26 catches respectively. The Falcons let both of them go and signed ex-Bengal wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal this off-season, in order to improve their receiving corps. He’ll be the starter opposite Jones immediately.

That will probably all prove to be wasted money though, as Sanu was arguably the worst free signing of the off-season. Sanu has played all 48 games in the past 3 seasons, but has graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons and has just 136 catches over that time period, including just 33 as the Bengals’ #3 wide receiver in 2015. In 2014, the one season in which he saw significant action, he still only caught 56 passes and had a league worst 14 drops to go with that, giving him the worst drop rate in the NFL that season. He’s a #3 receiver at best and isn’t even really an upgrade as a starter opposite Jones, as bad as White and Hankerson were in 2015.

Sanu could still finish 2nd on the team in catches, especially if he commands a lot of targets, but that’ll largely be by default; they don’t have any other reliable pass catchers on the team. Justin Hardy is expected to be the #3 receiver, despite struggling on 340 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015. His only competition is career special teamers Devin Hester and Eric Weems and 7th round rookie Devin Fuller. Hardy should win the job, but is unlikely to take a big step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2016.

Tight ends Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo remain. Tamme finished 3rd on the team in catches behind Jones and Freeman with 59, turning them into 657 yards and a touchdown, and could have decent numbers again in 2016. Tamme has actually graded out above average in 4 of 8 seasons in the league, but has averaged just 366 snaps per season in his career because of his inability to run block. Tamme played 772 snaps in 2015, but was horrible as a run blocker, causing him to grade out below average overall. Going into his age 31 season, he’s not getting any better. He’s a capable set of hands, but not much else.

Toilolo, by contrast, is more of a blocker at 6-8 265, with just 49 career catches for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns since being drafted in the 4th round in 2013. He’s not a good blocker either though, grading out below average as a run blocker in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league. Toilolo made 16 starts in 2014, but only out of desperation, as he finished 64th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus and caught just 31 passes for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s probably under-qualified for even the #2 tight end job and should be pushed for snaps by 3rd round rookie Austin Hooper.

As a result of the Falcons’ inability to upgrade the receiving corps this off-season, Julio Jones will have to do all of the work himself again. Jones is one of the top few wide receivers in the entire league, averaging 7.8 catches for 112.3 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game over the past 3 seasons. Jones was 2nd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2015, 6th among wide receivers in 2014, and was 4th among wide receivers in 2013, prior to missing the final 11 games of the season with a broken foot. He’ll remain a huge asset for the Falcons, still only going into his age 27 season, but he’s just one guy.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Even with less than stellar numbers in the passing game, the Falcons still finished 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their running game, led by lead back Devonta Freeman, was a big part of that. Freeman rushed for 1061 yards on 264 carries, an unimpressive 4.02 YPC average, but he also led the league in rushing touchdowns with 11 and came in 2nd behind Adrian Peterson in rushing first downs with 67. Peterson had just 4 more first downs despite 63 more carries.

When you add in receiving stats, Freeman actually led the all running backs with 88 total first downs by a running back, as he caught 73 passes for 578 yards, another 3 touchdowns, and another 21 first downs. The Falcons probably want someone other than Freeman to finish 2nd on the team in catches in 2016, but they didn’t add any significant upgrades in the receiving corps and Freeman has great hands, so he should still have a big role in the passing game. Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked running back in his 2nd year in the league 2015, after struggling on 65 snaps as a rookie, and could easily have another strong year in 2016.

Freeman likely benefitted from the arrival of Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, as both Kyle and his father Mike have always done a great job getting good production out of their running game, with their zone blocking scheme. The Shanahans have also always been pretty reliant on one running back, rather than mixing in two or three. It’s hard to take Freeman off the field anyway, but he should definitely continue dominating the snaps as long as he is healthy. Backup running back Tevin Coleman averaged 4.51 yards per carry on 87 carries in 12 games as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, but probably needs an injury to Freeman to see any sort of significant action. It’s a good running back duo though.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Another staple of Shanahan coached offenses is improved offensive line play, which, in turn, helps the running game. The Falcons definitely got that in Shanahan’s first season in Atlanta. The biggest beneficiary was left tackle Jake Matthews, which was huge for the Falcons. Not only does Matthews play the most important position upfront, but he was also the 6th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft and played concerningly poor as a rookie, finishing dead last out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. In 2015, he leaped all the way up to 19th. Immensely talented and still only going into his age 24 season, Matthews’ best football could still be ahead of him and he could have another strong season in 2016.

Matthews might not even be their best offensive tackle though, as right tackle Ryan Schraeder also was much improved in 2015, finishing 5th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, including 1st among right tackles. Schraeder was not a high pick like Matthews at all, going undrafted in 2013, but has outplayed him in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 22nd among offensive tackles on 655 snaps in 2014, taking over as the starter mid-season. The one concern with him is he was an old rookie (part of why he went undrafted out of Valdosta State) and is already going into his age 28 season. It’s not really an issue for this season, as he should have another strong year, but that’ll be a factor in determining what kind of long-term deal they try to reach with him. He’ll be a free agent next off-season and is due for a big pay increase.

At guard, the Falcons have another pair of inexpensive starters coming off of strong seasons, but instead of young players on rookie deals, it’s veterans on cheap, short-term deals. Both left guard Andy Levitre and right guard Chris Chester are great values. Levitre has made all 112 starts in 7 years in the league, since going in the 2nd round in 2009, and graded out above average in all 4 seasons from 2010-2013, including 3 straight seasons in the top-13 among guards from 2011-2013. However, he graded out below average in 2014 and was sent to the Falcons for a couple of late round picks. That allowed the Falcons to get him on a renegotiated 4-year, 23.25 million dollar deal. Levitre subsequently had a bounce back year with the Falcons in 2015, grading out 22nd among guards, making it 5 times in 7 years that he’s graded out above average. Still only going into his age 30 season, he has a good chance to do so again in 2016.

Chester, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked guard, though he’s a little bit less of a sure thing to repeat, going into his age 33 season. He also easily could have another solid year. He’s made 127 starts in 153 career games in 10 years in the league and has graded out above average in 3 of the past 5 seasons. The Falcons brought him back on a 1-year, 2.35 million dollar deal this off-season, so they obviously think he has one more season left as a starter, at least. It’s no guarantee, but he could continue to be a serviceable stopgap starter at the position. Both he and Levitre excel as run blockers.

The only hole on the Falcons’ offensive line last season was center and the Falcons addressed that in a big way this off-season, by signing top free agent center Alex Mack to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal, making him the highest paid center in the NFL. Two years ago, Mack would have definitely been worth it, as Mack was a top-11 center in each of the first 5 seasons of his career from 2009-2013, after going in the first round in 2009. However, Mack was limited to 5 games by a broken leg in 2014 and then finished just 13th among centers on Pro Football Focus.

Mack did great a big contract two years ago, as the Browns re-signed him to a 5-year, 42 million dollar deal, but he was able to opt out after 2 years and 18 million and still get another big contract. Going into his age 31 season, coming off of a serious injury and a down year, his 2nd big deal makes a lot less sense than his first one. However, even if he’s overpaid, he’s an obvious asset for a team that needed a center badly this off-season. With his addition, this is now one of the best offensive lines in football.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

While the Falcons’ offense was great in 2015 and has strong potential again for 2016, their defense was what kept them out of the playoffs last year, as they finished 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ll need to be better in 2016. They have a crowded front 7, with a lot of capable players, but they don’t have anyone who dominates on every snap. The closest thing they might have to that is free agent acquisition Derrick Shelby, who finished 23rd among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus on 836 snaps with the Dolphins in 2015, earning him a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal from the Falcons. He’s a one-year wonder, maxing out at 446 snaps prior to 2015 and graded out slightly below average in both 2013 and 2014, but he could have another solid year.

Adrian Clayborn remains as the other starter. He’s also coming off of a pretty solid year, grading out just above average. He too is a bit of a one-year wonder, but for different reasons. A 1st round pick by the Buccaneers in 2010, Clayborn had a solid rookie year, grading out just slightly below average and excelling as a pass rusher, but missed 28 games with injury from 2011-2013 and struggled mightily when on the field in 2012. He played in all 16 games in 2015 though and showed he’s still a solid player when healthy. If he can stay healthy again, he should be a capable starter again, at the very least.

With Shelby coming in, 2015 8th overall pick Vic Beasley will be moving from defensive end in outside linebacker in base packages, playing the Bruce Irvin role in head coach Dan Quinn’s Seattle style defense (Quinn was Seattle’s defensive coordinator in 2013 and 2014). As an every down defensive end, Beasley graded out about average as a rookie, rushing the passer well, but struggling against the run. That was basically the book on him coming out of Clemson, highly athletic at 6-3 246, great pass rush upside, but doesn’t hold up against the run.

The Falcons are hoping that by transitioning Beasley to more of a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role, they can minimize situations where he’s playing on the defensive line on run plays. He’ll play 4-3 outside linebacker in base packages and 4-3 defensive end in sub packages, rushing the passer off the edge. Both starting defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Derrick Shelby are bigger defensive ends at 6-3 280 and 6-2 280 respectively, so both could see snaps rushing the passer from the interior, with Beasley moving down to defensive end in sub packages.

The Falcons also have veterans Brooks Reed, Courtney Upshaw, and Dwight Freeney in the mix for snaps. Reed and Upshaw are both traditionally 3-4 outside linebackers and are pretty similar players. Reed spent the first 4 years of his career as a 3-4 outside linebacker in Houston, after getting drafted in the 2nd round in 2011, grading out above average in 3 of 4 seasons, but struggled to find a position in Atlanta’s 4-3 in his first season in Atlanta in 2015, playing just 351 total snaps and seeing time at both outside linebacker and inside linebacker. He didn’t play badly in limited action, but it appears they’ll try him at defensive end in 2016, even though he’s undersized at 6-3 254 and has graded out below average as a pass rusher in all 5 seasons of his career. He’s not a lock for playing time.

Like Reed, Upshaw spent the first 4 seasons of his career as a 3-4 outside linebacker, after getting drafted by the Ravens in the 2nd round in 2012. Like Reed, he’s not much of a pass rusher, grading out below average in that aspect in all 4 seasons in Baltimore, but he graded out above average against the run in 3 of the 4 seasons. Like Reed, he has an uncertain role this season, with Beasley playing outside linebacker and Clayborn and Shelby starting at defensive end. He’s bigger than Reed at 6-2 272, so he fits as a 4-3 defensive end a little bit better than Reed does, but has been a 3-4 outside linebacker dating back to his collegiate days at the University of Alabama.

Freeney, meanwhile, was signed late in the off-season (early August) and is going into his age 36 season, but he might have a better chance at carving out a sub package role in this defense. He still graded out above average last season on 593 snaps (between the regular season and post-season), excelling as a pass rusher, as he always has. A likely future Hall-of-Famer, Freeney has 119.5 career sacks (3rd among active players) and has finished above average in all 9 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s not the same player he once was and it’s hard to trust him at his age. He could prove to be a nice, inexpensive signing for a team that needed pass rush depth, but that’s far from a sure thing.

At defensive tackle, 4 players are competing for snaps, and, as mentioned, both Clayborn and Shelby could see time in sub packages. None of the four figure to see significant action. Tyson Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux are the veterans, going into their age 30 and 35 seasons respectively. Babineaux actually led the position in snaps played with 557 in 2015 and graded out above average, despite his age. He’s graded out above average in 8 of the 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, but, at his age, he’s really hard to trust. He’ll play primarily as a sub package interior pass rusher again.

Jackson, meanwhile, is only a base package player at this point in his career. He only played 462 snaps last season and could easily play fewer in 2016. A bust as the 3rd overall pick in 2009, Jackson has graded out below average overall in 6 of 7 seasons in the league and below average as a pass rusher in all 7 seasons. Now going into his 30s, he won’t be getting better any time soon. Both he and Babineaux could cede snaps to 2nd year player Grady Jarrett, a steal of a 5th round pick in 2015, who flashed on 268 snaps as a rookie. A breakout year is a real possibility for him.

The fourth defensive tackle in the mix is Ra’Shede Hageman, another young player, a 2014 2nd round pick. The first two seasons of Hageman’s career have been disappointing, as he’s been limited to 651 snaps combined and has graded out below average in both seasons. The Falcons will be hoping that he can have a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, but Jarrett has a better chance. It’s an underwhelming group of defensive tackles in general on an overall underwhelming defensive line, but the addition of Shelby will help.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

As already mentioned, Vic Beasley will play as the 3rd linebacker in base packages, moving to the defensive line in sub packages when a 5th defensive back enters. The other two linebacker spots are up for grabs though. Veterans Paul Worrilow, Philip Wheeler, and Sean Weatherspoon are in the mix, but all 3 struggled in 2015. Worrilow has made 42 starts in 47 games in 3 seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2013, but has been one of the league’s worst linebackers over that stretch, showing why he went undrafted. He’s been a bottom-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 3 seasons and a bottom-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 2 seasons.

Wheeler and Weatherspoon have had good seasons, but it’s been a while and now they are going into their age 32 season and age 29 season respectively. Wheeler was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2012, but has graded out below average in 5 of 8 seasons in the league, has only twice played more than 550 snaps, and is coming off of a 2015 season in which he played just 146 snaps. Add in his age and he’s nothing more than a desperation starter at best.

Weatherspoon is still relatively young, but his issue has been injuries, as the 2010 1st round pick has missed 35 games with injury in 6 seasons in the league. He missed all of 2014 with a torn achilles and played pretty badly on 159 snaps in 13 games last season. He claims to be healthy now and he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but that’s the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average and his injury history makes it hard to trust he’ll be healthy.

With obvious issues at the position, the Falcons used a 2nd and a 4th round pick on linebackers in the 2016 NFL Draft, taking LSU’s Deion Jones in the 2nd and Minnesota’s De’Vondre Campbell in the 4th. Jones is expected to beat out the incumbent Worrilow for the starting middle linebacker job, while Campbell will compete with Weatherspoon and, to a lesser extent, Wheeler for the outside job. No matter how it shakes out, both are positions of weakness. Jones was a reach in the 2nd round, earning a 7th round grade from Pro Football Focus, while Campbell was not a high pick and can’t be trusted as a rookie. The fact that both could start this season just shows you how bad the Falcons’ linebackers are, other than part-time linebacker Vic Beasley..

Grade: D

Secondary

The saving grace of this defense is a young secondary led by cornerback Desmond Trufant, a 2013 1st round pick who has quietly been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL since he entered the league. He’s made 48 of a possible 48 starts in 3 career seasons and has graded out 7th, 6th, and 13th among cornerbacks on Pro Foootball Focus in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. The Falcons made the no-brainer move to pick up his 5th year option for 2017 and will likely to try sign him to a long-term extension sometime in the next 12 months. One of the Falcons’ true top-level talents, the Falcons will need to pay him like a top-5 cornerback at the very least to keep him. Only going into his age 26 season, he has a bright future, in addition to a bright present.

Another 4th year player starts opposite him, as Robert Alford has made 29 starts in 3 seasons in the league, since getting drafted in the 2nd round in that same 2013 draft, including 25 starts over the past 2 seasons and 15 last season. Alford struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league, but graded out above average for the first time in his career in 2015. He’s another extension candidate, though they may be wary of overpaying for a one-year wonder. The Falcons drafted Jalen Collins in the 2nd round in last year’s draft as a potential future starter. Alford should be able to hold him off for now, coming off of a strong season, but they may view Collins as the internal replacement to Alford.

Another reason why Alford should be able to hold off Collins pretty easily, if there even is any competition both the two, is that Collins failed a drug test for performance enhancing drugs this off-season and will miss the first 4 games of the season. That puts a damper on his long-term development a little bit, as does the fact that he struggled mightily on 306 snaps as a rookie. In his absence, the Falcons will have to turn to Akeem King, a 2015 7th round pick who played just 16 defensive snaps as a rookie. Depth is a serious problem behind starting solid duo at cornerback.

Adding to the youth in the secondary, the Falcons drafted Florida safety Keanu Neal in the 1st round 17th overall in this year’s draft, to replace departed veteran William Moore. He will be an immediate starter, but was a reach in the middle of the first and could struggle as a rookie. He was given a 6th round grade and considered one of the draft’s biggest busts by Pro Football Focus. Even if that’s over-exaggerating it, Neal is much better moving forward then backwards at 6-0 211 and is a major liability in coverage. The Falcons see Kam Chancellor, who head coach Dan Quinn had in Seattle, but it might not work out that way.

With Neal often playing up closer to the line of scrimmage frequently, the other safety spot will be playing a deep center field, a la Earl Thomas if we’re continuing the Seattle comparison. The problem is the Falcons don’t have anything resembling Thomas on the roster. Ricardo Allen, a 2014 5th round pick, is the incumbent, making 14 starts in his first season of significant action in 2015, but Kemal Ishmael is also in the mix and outplayed Allen on limited snaps in 2015, grading out above average, while Allen came in slightly below.

Ishmael has some experience, making 10 starts in 2014, but has only once graded out above average in 3 seasons in the league since going in the 7th round in 2013. Neither are bad options, but neither are particularly good ones either. Neal injured his knee this pre-season, putting his status in question for the start of the season, so both Allen and Ishmael could see playing time together early in the year. Continuing the Seattle comparison even further, Trufant as the Richard Sherman isn’t too far off, but the safeties are miles away from Quinn’s old Legion of Boom safeties. The secondary is still their best defensive unit, but that’s not saying much on this defense.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Falcons have talent on offense, but figure to have a lot of trouble stopping anyone on defense. That was basically the case last season, but they benefitted from the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL and the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost to injury, two things they likely won’t have again in 2016. They made a number of questionable decisions this off-season, including signing Mohamed Sanu and drafting Keanu Neal and Deion Jones in the first two rounds, and, aside from one-year wonder Derrick Shelby, didn’t really add much this off-season. It’s going to be tough for this team to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in NFC South

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Carolina Panthers 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Panthers finished the 2014 season at 7-8-1, winning the division and making the playoffs purely because of how bad the rest of the division was. Last pre-season, the Panthers lost #1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for the season with a torn ACL. Their outlook wasn’t looking great ahead into 2015. Instead, they won the first 14 games of the season and finished 15-1, the best record in the NFL. The Panthers did not win the Super Bowl, losing in the big game to the Denver Broncos, but they finished the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential and there’s no arguing that they were one of the top-2 or 3 teams in the league all season, a huge accomplishment for a team with such low expectations.

The Panthers were improved on both sides of the ball from 2014 to 2015, but probably the biggest reason for their breakout year in 2015 was the breakout year they got from franchise quarterback Cam Newton. The #1 overall pick in 2011, Newton had graded out above average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career from 2011 to 2014, but finished a career best 2nd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2015. Despite obvious issues in the receiving corps, Newton completed 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.75 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also was once again arguably the best running quarterback in the NFL, rushing for 636 yards and another 10 touchdowns on 132 carries (4.81 YPC). Largely as a result of Newton’s improved play, the Panthers went from 12th to 4th in rate of moving the chains from 2014 to 2015.

Even more exciting for Panthers fans is that he was significantly better throwing the ball in the 2nd half of the season than he was in the 1st half of the season. In the first 8 games of the season, he completed just 53.7% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. The Panthers were winning, but were relying heavily on their defense and just 2 of their first 8 wins came by more than 8 points. They moved the chains at a rate of 70.79% in those 8 games, solid, but unspectacular.

Over the final 8 games of the season, that rate jumped to 79.29%, as Cam Newton completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 1 interception, clinching an improbable MVP season in his 5th year in the league. The Panthers did lose a game down the stretch, but, even though they “only” went 7-1 in those final 8 games, they had 5 wins by more than 8 points and were not as reliant on their defense, which did slip up a little down the stretch. Newton struggled in the Super Bowl loss to Denver, but overall played well in the playoffs considering he was going against Seattle, Arizona, and Denver, three of the best defenses in the NFL. He completed 58.2% of his passes for an average of 8.36 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the playoffs, while adding 95 yards and another 2 scores on the ground on 27 carries.

With Kelvin Benjamin returning, it’s very possible that Newton continues his strong play from down the stretch and has an even better season in 2016. Immensely talented since the day he stepped into the league, Newton seems to have finally put it all together and turned into the top-5 quarterback that many saw as his upside coming out of Auburn 5 years ago. At the same time, it was worth remembering that he is a one-year wonder in terms of being a top level quarterback, so it’s also possible he slips up and “regresses to the mean” a little bit. Either way, the Panthers’ offense is in good hands.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the injury to Benjamin was a big hit to a receiving corps that was not very deep to begin with; Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen combined for 49.25% of the Panthers’ targets in 2014, most in the league by any two teammates, with both receivers topping 1000 yards in the process. Benjamin himself was targeted 146 times, 5th in the league, so it was a big role to fill in the offense. In Benjamin’s absence, Greg Olsen led the team in receiving yards, topping 1000 yards for the 2nd straight season, catching 77 passes for a career high 1104 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Olsen, a 2007 1st round pick, has graded out above average as a pass catcher in all 9 seasons he’s been in the league and above average overall in 8 of those 9 seasons. He’s really come into his own over the past few seasons though, topping 800 yards in 4 straight seasons and 1000 yards in 2 straight seasons, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end in 2015 and their 6th ranked tight end in 2014. Olsen is going into his age 31 season, but hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year and has shown no signs of slowing down. Cam Newton loves throwing to him and balls should keep coming his way, even with Benjamin returning.

Veteran Ted Ginn was the de facto #1 receiver last year, catching 44 passes for 739 yards and 10 touchdowns. The fact that it was Ginn in that role shows just how thin the Panthers were at wide receiver. Ginn played just 151 offensive snaps as the Cardinals’ #5 receiver in 2014 (the same Cardinals that the Panthers clobbered in the NFC Championship game in 2015) and signed with the Panthers on a cheap 2-year, 4.2 million dollar deal last off-season. Ginn graded out above average in 2013 for the Panthers, but that was the only above average season in his career. Primarily signed for his special teams ability, Ginn ended up playing 670 snaps and grading out above average again.

Ginn clearly has great chemistry with Cam Newton, as he’s a one-dimensional deep route runner and Newton consistently throws catchable deep balls, but it’s hard to trust that he’ll play well again in 2016, as he’s still graded out below average in 7 of 9 seasons in the league. Going into his age 31 season in 2016, the Panthers probably want Ginn to play much more of a complementary role; he still only caught 45.8% of his targets last season. WIth Benjamin returning, Ginn will compete with 2nd year player Devin Funchess. The 2015 2nd round pick flashed on 493 snaps as a rookie and is likely the favorite for the #2 job in 2016, pushing Ginn inside to the slot. Corey Brown, who actually led the Panther wide receivers in snaps played last season with 753, slides into the #4 role, where he’s a much better fit.

With Benjamin returning and Funchess possibly going into a breakout year, this is suddenly a much better group of wide receivers, even if Ginn disappoints. Benjamin wasn’t great as a rookie, grading out below average despite having 1000+ yards, as he finished 20th in receiving yards despite getting the 5th most targets. He’s also coming off of a serious knee injury. However, he’s a former 1st round pick who is only going into his age 25 season and his 3rd year in the league. He’s young enough to bounce back from the injury fairly easily and could have a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league.

Even if he doesn’t, it’ll be good to have him back, though don’t expect him to get the 5th most targets in the league again, as he did in 2014. The Panthers are a run heavy team with a dual threat quarterback and a great defense and have to get Greg Olsen a lot of targets. Plus guys that Benjamin didn’t have to compete with in 2014 like Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess will command targets. Fewer targets could lead to disappointing numbers overall from a fantasy football perspective, even if Benjamin actually plays better than he did as a rookie. He’s a massive reach in the 3rd round of drafts, where his ADP currently stands.

The only weakness in this receiving corps is the tight end depth, as veteran Ed Dickson returns as the #2 tight end. Olsen never gets hurt, but Dickson still played 598 snaps last season, primarily in two-tight end sets, and struggled mightily, finishing 58th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus, especially struggling as a run blocker. That’s par for the course from him, as the veteran has graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league, including 3 straight seasons in which he’s been in the bottom-10 among tight ends. He could be pushed for snaps by 7th round rookie Beau Sandland, but he probably wouldn’t be much of an improvement. It’s an improved receiving corps overall though.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As mentioned, this is a run heavy offense, thanks to dual threat quarterback Cam Newton and a great defense supporting them. They joined the Vikings, Seahawks, and Bills as the only teams in the league to run more often than they passed in 2015 and led the league with 526 carries. Newton had 132 carries, right around his career average of 119.8 carries per season, but it wasn’t just Newton as running back Jonathan Stewart averaged 18.6 carries per game, 3rd most in the NFL behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell. Fullback Mike Tolbert also had 63 carries for 256 yards and a touchdown, though he’s a declining player, going into his age 31 season. He’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons.

Stewart got a big workload when he was on the field, but unfortunately he didn’t last the whole season, missing the final 3 games of the regular season with a foot injury, before returning for the playoffs. A 2008 1st round pick, injuries and durability issues have been the story of Stewart’s career. The 243 carries he had last season were a career high and he’s missed 25 games with injury in 8 seasons in the league, including 23 in the last 4 seasons. When healthy though, he’s a good player, grading out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league, including last season.

Stewart’s career numbers are good, as he’s rushed for 5814 yards and 36 touchdowns on 1283 carries (4.53 YPC). However, he was limited to just 4.09 yards per carry last season, falling just short of what could have been his 2nd 1000-yard rushing year. He also only caught 16 passes for 99 yards, right in line with his underwhelming career pass catching numbers: 146 catches for 1183 yards and 6 touchdowns in 103 games. Owed a non-guaranteed 6.25 million in his age 30 in 2017, it’s possible this is Stewart’s final season in Carolina.

The Panthers needed to find a long-term replacement and a short-term complement for Stewart this off-season, but, outside of two undrafted free agents, didn’t add a running back this off-season. That suggests they’re confident in 2015 5th round pick Cameron Artis-Payne’s long-term potential. Artis-Payne split snaps with veteran Fozzy Whitaker and fullback Mike Tolbert when Stewart missed the final 3 games of the season. Both Whitaker and Artis-Payne were underwhelming though, grading out below average and averaging 4.32 and 4.07 YPC on 25 and 45 carries respectively. Whitaker is a 2012 undrafted free agent with 123 career touches, while Artis-Payne is an underwhelming talent who is unlikely to make a 2nd year leap. The Panthers have a serious depth problem at running back.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The offensive line is the unit that’s had the biggest and quickest turnaround over the past couple of seasons for the Panthers and was a huge part of their success last season. The Panthers have a pair of 3rd year starters from the 2014 draft class upfront and both have been big parts of this turnaround, even though neither was a high pick. 2014 3rd round pick Trai Turner and 2014 undrafted free agent Andrew Norwell were Pro Football Focus’ 7th and 8th ranked guards respectively in 2015. Neither of them are one-year wonders either. They ranked 23rd and 15th on 673 snaps and 696 snaps respectively as rookies in 2014. They could be the best guard duo in the NFL in 2016.

Right tackle Mike Remmers, a 2012 undrafted free agent, is also going into his 3rd season as a starter. He isn’t quite as good, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, the only seasons in his career in which he’s seen any sort of significant action. He flashed on 367 snaps in 5 starts down the stretch in his 3rd year in the league in 2014, coinciding with the Panthers’ miraculous run to the playoffs that season, and then graded out just above average in 16 starts in 2015.

Remmers will remain the starter on the right side in his 3rd year in the league, with veteran Michael Oher opposite him on the left side. Like Remmers, Oher graded out above average in 2015 and, like Remmers, he was a great value, coming in on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal last off-season. Oher is not nearly as great of a value anymore, since the Panthers signed him to a 3-year, 21.6 million dollar extension this off-season with 9.5 million guaranteed. That could prove to be a mistake, as there was a reason he was available so inexpensively last off-season.

Oher had a strong rookie year, but graded out below average in every season from 2010-2014, including 68th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2013 and 75th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles in 2014. The Titans inexplicably signed him to a 4-year, 20 million extension after his terrible 2013 season and then cut him after one-year and 9 million after he struggled again in 2014. Highly inconsistent at best, the Panthers might end up regretting giving him this extension as much as Tennessee regretted giving him that “4-year” deal.

Center Ryan Kalil is the constant that has been with this team through good times and bad. Kalil has started 115 games in 9 years with the Panthers, since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2007. Kalil has graded out above average in 6 of the last 7 seasons, with the only exception coming in an injury plagued 2012 season. Going into his age 31 season, ihe’snot quite the same player he used to be, when he was one of the top few centers in the NFL, but he still graded out 11th among centers in 2014 and 12th among centers in 2015. He should grade out above average at the very least again in 2016 on an overall strong offensive line.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the defense was also much improved from 2014 to 2015, jumping from 18th in 2014 to 4th in 2015. Players like cornerback Josh Norman, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis get more attention, but defensive tackle Kawann Short is as important to this defense as any of them. The Panthers used their first and second round picks on defensive tackles in 2013, taking Star Lotulelei in the first round and Kawann Short in the second round, but Short has definitely been the better player. Short has played in all 48 games over the past 3 seasons and has finished 13th, 9th, and 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively.

Lotulelei hasn’t been bad either, though he’s coming off of a down year, grading out below average for the first time in his career, especially struggling as a pass rusher. Lotulelei has bounce back potential, given that he ranked 17th among defensive tackles in 2013 and 24th in 2014, but he’s only once graded out above average as a pass rusher. The big 6-2 320 pounder is a great run stuffer at his best and even graded out above average on run snaps in last year’s down year, but might be best as a two-down player going forward.

Given that, it’s strange that the Panthers used a first round pick on a defensive tackle in Vernon Butler that is very similar to Lotulelei in skill set and frame at 6-4 323. The 5th year option on Lotulelei’s rookie contract was picked up by the Panthers this off-season, so Lotulelei is under team control fairly inexpensively for two seasons. Short is going into the final year of his contract, but the Panthers would use the franchise tag on him before letting him hit the open market, so neither figures to be going anywhere for a couple years, and Butler profiles as more of a replacement for Lotulelei than Short anyway.

The Panthers also signed veteran defensive tackle Paul Soliai, who is more of an early down run stuffer as well, at 6-4 344. Soliai is experienced, with 86 starts in 128 career games in 9 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 6 of 9 seasons in the league. He graded out slightly above average on 357 snaps last season, but, going into his age 33 season, Soliai won’t have a big role in a crowded group of defensive tackles. It’s a deep group of defensive tackles, but the pieces don’t seem to fit well together.

As surprising as it was that the Panthers took a defensive tackle in the 1st round, it was equally surprising that they didn’t take a defensive end at all, given that defensive end was a much bigger position of need, following the retirement of Jared Allen. The Panthers will go into 2016 with the trio of Kony Ealy, Charles Johnson, and Mario Addison working in rotation at the two defensive end spots. Ealy led the position in snaps played with 648 last year and should be the starter on one side this year. Ealy, a 2014 2nd round pick, has graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, but improved significantly from 2014 to 2015. In 2014, he finished 56th out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, but in 2015, he almost graded out above average. It’s not a guarantee, but he could easily have the best season of his career in 2016. He seems like a capable starter at the least.

The Panthers are hoping that Charles Johnson can be the starter on the other side. The 2007 3rd round pick has made 90 starts in 118 games in 9 seasons in the league, but was limited to 388 snaps in 9 games by injury last season. Going into his age 30 season, Johnson was let go this off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 11 million dollar salary, but was brought back on a much cheaper 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. Given that he’s graded out above average in each of the last 8 seasons, including last year’s injury plagued season, it’s a great value. Gone are the days of him grading out #3 overall, like he did in 2011, but he’s still a capable starter at the very least as long as he can stay healthy; he missed just 6 games with injury in the 7 years prior to last season. Where he ends up beyond 2016 is unknown, but he should be an asset for the Panthers this year.

If he can’t stay healthy, Mario Addison would likely become the starter and will see snaps as the 3rd defensive end at the very least. Going into his 6th year in the league and already his age 29 season, Addison has averaged just 338 snaps per season over the first 5 seasons of his career. He’s also graded out below average in 3 of those 5 seasons, including last season. I thought the Panthers would bring in a young defensive end to compete with Addison for the #3 job and to potential be a long-term starter opposite Ealy, with Johnson’s status’ unclear long-term, but they did not. Still, it’s a strong defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Panthers’ linebacking corps if their best unit, led by Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, arguably the best 4-3 linebacker duo in the NFL. Kuechly won Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, the only time someone other than JJ Watt has won that award in the past 4 seasons, but Kuechly’s best seasons have arguably been the last two, the two after his Defensive Player of the Year season. Kuechly has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked middle linebacker in each of the past 2 seasons and, though he missed 3 games with injury in 2015, he was Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked defensive player at any position, even after ahead of Watt.

A top-8 middle linebacker in each of the first 4 seasons of his career, Kuechly’s career is on a Patrick Willis/Ray Lewis type trajectory and it would not surprise me at all if he won another Defensive Player of the Year award or two before it’s all said and done and ended up in the Hall of Fame. Still only going into his age 25 season, the former 9th overall pick is one of the top few players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s also a bargain, signed for just 64.105 million over the next 6 seasons.

Thomas Davis obviously isn’t as good, but he’s still very valuable to this defense. The fact that Davis is still playing at a high level is borderline miraculous, considering he was limited to 9 games from 2009-2011 with 3 separate torn ACLs. Davis has missed just 2 games in the past 4 seasons and has graded out in the top-10 among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. Davis is going into his age 33 season and did show some signs of declining in 2015, falling from 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 5th in 2014 to 10th last season, but he should have another couple strong seasons left in the tank.

It’s not even just Kuechly and Davis, as the Panthers also have 2015 1st round pick Shaq Thompson, opposite Davis at the other outside linebacker spot. Thompson played just 365 snaps as a rookie, but played really well in limited action and should have a larger role in his 2nd year in the league in 2016. Any role he has will be limited by the fact that Kuechly and Davis never come off the field and teams use sub packages with only two linebackers the majority of the time now, but the Panthers can find creative ways to keep all 3 linebackers on the field in sub packages. Thompson is an incredible athlete at 6-0 230 and could see some time at safety in certain situations. It’s probably the strongest 4-3 linebacking corps in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

One reason Thompson seeing some time at safety makes some sense is because the Panthers lost veteran starting safety Roman Harper this off-season. However, 3rd year player Tre Boston is expected to take Harper’s starting job and has a chance to have a breakout year. Boston has graded out above average in each of his first two seasons in the league, on 369 and 222 snaps respectively, including a 2014 rookie season in which he finished 21st among safeties on Pro Football Focus, despite the limited playing time. He was just a 4th round pick in 2014 and he’s still unproven in a larger role, but he could easily be another mid-round steal by Panthers GM Dave Gettleman, who has really turned this team around.

The Panthers are also hoping that cornerback Bene Benwikere, a 5th round pick in 2014, can be one of those mid-round steals. Benwikere looked like a future star as a rookie, finishing 18th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, despite playing only 459 snaps. However, he couldn’t continue that in a larger role in 2015, grading out below average on 788 snaps. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Benwikere is the Panthers’ de facto #1 cornerback, after losing Josh Norman (16 starts) and Charles Tillman (12 starts) this off-season.

Benwikere hasn’t played badly overall in his career and it’s possible he takes a leap forward in his 3rd year in the league, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The Panthers are hoping he can be their next Josh Norman (a 2012 5th round pick who broke out in his 3rd year in the league), but, as of right now, he looks like a massive downgrade from the departed Norman, who was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2015. Benwikere’s also currently still working back from a broken leg that ended his 2015 season early and has missed 9 games in 2 seasons in the league.

With Norman and Tillman gone, a trio of rookies and veteran Robert McClain will compete for playing time after Benwikere on the depth chart. The Panthers used a 2nd round pick on Samford’s James Bradberry, a 3rd round pick on West Virginia’s Daryl Worley, and a 5th round pick on Oklahoma’s Zack Sanchez. They’ll be hoping one or more of those players can have a strong rookie season, but it’s very hard to count on rookies, especially ones that weren’t high draft picks. Bradberry was a reach in the 2nd round, while Worley might end up at safety long-term. Sanchez is undersized and not yet NFL ready.

McClain might not be a better option though. A 6-year veteran, McClain was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked cornerback in 2012, but finished below average in the other 5 seasons. He’s bounced around from Carolina to Jacksonville to Atlanta to New England back to Carolina. Fifteen of his 17 career starts were in his 3 seasons in Atlanta, but he didn’t even last until final cuts in New England, before ending up back in Carolina, where he struggled mightily on 225 snaps between the regular season and post-season.

McClain doesn’t bring anything more than experience, but that could be enough for him to carve out a significant role among a group of cornerbacks that really lacks experience. It wouldn’t surprise me if they brought back Charles Tillman, as he wasn’t bad last season and is still available as a free agent, but it’s unclear what he has left in the tank, going into his age 35 season, coming off of a January torn ACL, and having missed 26 of 48 possible games in the past 3 seasons combined. He’s likely done.

Rounding out the secondary is the lone veteran starter, safety Kurt Coleman. Coleman had a major breakout year in his 6th year in the league in 2015, grading out 14th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Coleman, a 7th round pick in 2010, was a starter early in his career, but was clearly not ready for a starting role, grading out well below average in both 2011 and 2012, before moving back to a reserve role in 2013 and 2014. Coleman flashed on 396 snaps in 2014, but, besides 2015, that’s the only other season of his career in which he’s graded out above average.

He could have another strong season and prove to be a late bloomer, but he could also prove to be a one-year wonder. The Panthers will obviously be hoping it’s the former, as, with Norman gone, Coleman is now their best defensive back. He’s surrounded by inexperience and, though there is a lot of promise in this secondary, they’ll probably need the front 7 to mask their flaws as much as possible in 2016. Panther secondaries have annually exceeded expectations in recent years, thanks to a great defensive coaching staff led by defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, but the loss of Norman could prove to be too big.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Panthers’ defense probably won’t be as good again in 2015, as the loss of Josh Norman should prove to be huge and leaves the secondary very thin. However, they have arguably the most talented offense in the league. They finished last season on fire and are much improved at wide receiver this season, after that position was their only real weakness on offense in 2015. Kelvin Benjamin returns, while 2nd year player Devin Funchess could have a breakout year in his first year as a starter. 2015 may prove to be the best year of Cam Newton’s career, but he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has the most talented supporting cast of his career, especially if Jonathan Stewart can stay healthy. They should be able to move up and down the field easily, which will keep them among the top teams in the league. 15 wins is obviously unlikely again and they might not even win 12, especially against a tougher schedule, but they’re on the Super Bowl short list for sure.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC South

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Los Angeles Rams 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Rams’ offense finished the 2015 season dead last in rate of moving the chains and by a pretty significant margin. They finished at 62.47%, while the 49ers, who finished 2nd worst, finished at 64.40%. The running game wasn’t really the problem, as their 4.56 yards per carry average was 6th in the NFL (more on that in a bit), so the obvious culprit is the passing game. In fact, between two different starting quarterbacks (Nick Foles and Case Keenum) the Rams completed just 57.7% of their passes for an average of 6.20 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 74.1 that was worst in the NFL.

Despite giving Case Keenum a 1st round tender worth 3.635 million dollars as a restricted free agent and talking him up as a starter early this off-season, the Rams knew all off-season they needed to upgrade the quarterback position. Foles was arguably the worst quarterback in the league last year and has since been released, while Keenum is an undersized former undrafted free agent with a 79.8 career QB rating on 455 career pass attempts who isn’t anything more than a backup going into his 5th year in the league. It’s very possible that the Rams were smoke screening all along by talking up Keenum, in order to not seem as desperate in negotiations to move up from 15 to draft a quarterback.

The Rams still paid a fortune to move all the way up to #1 though. In essentially a reverse RG3 trade, the Rams sent the Titans both of their 2nd round picks, their 3rd round pick, and a 1st and 3rd round pick next year to move up from 15 to 1 to select California quarterback Jared Goff (the Rams also received a 4th and 6th from the Titans). It’s obvious why they made the move, given their weakness at the quarterback position and the importance of that position in today’s NFL, but I was not a fan of the move. Goff was not a can’t miss prospect like even RG3 was and the Rams’ offensive struggles go far deeper than the quarterback position. He may not even begin the season as the starter, if the Rams decide to go with the veteran Keenum to start the year. Goff has looked really bad this pre-season.

Given how bad their offense was last season, it’s tough to say they were just a quarterback away from being a good offense and the trade made it so the Rams didn’t pick again until the 4th round. They didn’t make any major additions on offense outside of Goff all off-season, so he walks into a nearly impossible situation for a young quarterback. Goff is now the face of the franchise for a team with the 4th longest active playoff drought in the NFL (11 years), in their first season back in Los Angeles, and has arguably the worst offensive supporting cast of any quarterback in the league. They would have been better off signing a veteran stopgap like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Robert Griffin this off-season and building around the quarterback through the draft, rather than going all in on Goff. Goff will improve this offense, but they’re a long way away from being even passable on offense.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

The one bright spot on this offense, as I mentioned, was the running game, led by standout running back Todd Gurley, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. A rare running back talent, Todd Gurley tore his ACL midway through his junior year at the University of Georgia in 2014, but the Rams still took a chance on him with the 10th overall pick, despite running back not being an obvious need. Gurley was limited to 13 games by injury as a rookie, sitting out the first two games of the season rehabbing from the ACL injury, but rushed for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.83 YPC) and finished the season 15th among running backs on Pro Football Focus.

Another year removed from the injury, Gurley could be even better in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, still only his age 22 season. He’s likely to play more games and see more carries than he did as a rookie. In fact, he’s one of the few true feature backs in the NFL and should be considered one of the early favorites to lead the NFL in rushing, even on a bad offense, as there isn’t another serious threat for carries on this roster. He finished 3rd in rushing last season, as the league had just seven 1000-yard rushers in 2015. The Rams had good running back depth when they drafted Gurley, but they’ve since traded Zac Stacy, while 2014 3rd round pick Tre Mason, who led the team in carries as a rookie in 2014, is no longer with the team after several off-season arrests and mental health concerns. He’s not expected to play this season.

Benny Cunningham returns as the passing down back, after leading the team in passing down snaps by a running back in 2015, but he had just 37 carries despite Gurley missing 3 games with injury. The 2013 undrafted free agent has averaged just 4.31 yards per carry on 150 career carries, despite largely running in situations where the defense is expecting the pass. Todd Gurley will have to carry this running back group and this offense as a whole. He finished just 11th in rushing first downs, despite having the 3rd most rushing yards, and didn’t produce much in the passing game (21 catches for 188 yards), but still obviously has a bright future and is by far their best offensive player.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Gurley can’t do it by himself though and, even with Goff coming in, the Rams have an alarming lack of talent on this offense. The receiving corps is probably their worst unit, as Kenny Britt led the way with 681 receiving yards last season. In fact, no Ram receiver has gone over 800 yards since the 2007 season. A lot of that has been because of consistently poor quarterback play, especially last season, but the wide receivers deserve a lot of blame as well, as they’ve really lacked in that department since Torry Holt was in his prime.

Even with a better quarterback coming in, it’s unlikely any Ram receiver passes that 800-yard threshold in 2016. Kenny Britt is likely to lead the team in receiving yards again and he’s not great. A former 1st round pick, Britt’s career was off to a solid start in 2009 and 2010, but he was limited to 73 catches in 29 games from 2011-2013 by injuries. He’s bounced back over the past 2 seasons with the Rams, grading out above average in both 2014 and 2015, but he’s not the player it looked like he would be early in his career, just barely grading out above average in both seasons.

Tavon Austin returns as the starter opposite him. Also a former 1st round pick (2013), Austin hasn’t been much more than a gadget player in his career, grading out significantly below average as a pass catcher on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons in the league. Last season was the best of his career in terms of receiving numbers, but he still caught just 52 passes for 473 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran a very limited route tree, with his average catch coming 2.63 yards from the line of scrimmage.

He has blazing speed, but is a limited player at 5-9 174 whose biggest contributions have come as a runner and a return man. He’s rushed for 809 yards and 3 touchdowns on 97 carries (8.34 YPC) in his career, while grading out above average as a runner in all 3 seasons in the league, and has added 3 touchdowns as a punt returner, but, as a wide receiver, he’s best off as a #3 receiver. He’s a nice player to have, but the Rams massively overpaid him on a 4-year, 42 million dollar extension this off-season, with still 2 years left on his rookie deal.

Even after trading away all of those draft picks, the Rams still drafted two wide receivers and for obvious reasons. Neither of them are likely to be good as a rookie though, as South Carolina’s Pharoh Cooper was a 4th round pick and Southern Missisippi’s Mike Thomas was a 6th round pick. Both could compete for playing time in arguably the league’s thinnest receiving corps though. After Britt and Austin, the next 3 wide receivers on the team in catches last season were Wes Welker (13), Stedman Bailey (12), and Brian Quick (10) and the team inexplicably didn’t add any help in free agency.

Welker is expected to retire ahead of his age 35 season and remains unsigned as of this writing, while Stedman Bailey’s NFL career is at least on hold after suffering a gunshot wound late last season. Quick, meanwhile, will compete with Pharoh Cooper and a host of other inexperienced players for the #3 wide receiver job. Being the only other wide receiver on the team with an NFL catch, he seems like the early favorite, after being re-signed for 1.75 million over 1 year this off-season.

A 2nd round pick in 2012, Quick came into the league with a lot of upside and was on a 64/973/8 pace through 6 games in his 3rd year in the league in 2014, but suffered a season ending shoulder injury. Still not fully healthy, Quick was limited to 10 catches in 13 games in 2015. He’s still never topped 25 catches in a season and has only once graded out above average, but there’s still there’s a little bit of upside here and he’s the best option they have if he can stay healthy. Wide receiver is a major position of weakness overall though.

Things aren’t any better at tight end though. Jared Cook, who made 12 starts in 16 games last season, was cut this off-season. He didn’t have a good year, but the Rams didn’t replace him, leaving the mediocre Lance Kendricks as the starter. He’s plenty experienced with 63 starts in 5 seasons in the league and was a big part of their offense as the #2 tight end in recent years, but he’s only once graded out above average. He could be pushed for snaps by 4th round rookie Tyler Higbee, but Higbee is highly unlikely to be good as a rookie. The receiving corps are a serious problem for the Rams and rookie quarterback Jared Goff.

Grade: D

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was just as bad, if not worse, than their receiving corps was last season and, like the receiving corps, they aren’t getting any reinforcements through free agency or the draft. The one thing the offensive line does have going for it is that it’s young and could be improved in 2016 as they become more experienced. Left tackle Greg Robinson was the 2nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft and has made 28 starts in 2 seasons in the league, but has been horrendous in both seasons, finishing 83rd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles as a rookie and 73rd out of 77 eligible offensive tackles in 2015. Robinson was regarded as raw coming out of Auburn University, but you obviously want more from your #2 overall pick than what he’s given them so far. He still has upside going into just his age 24 season, but he’s entering a make or break 3rd year in the league any way you look at it. The Rams will have to make a decision on a very expensive 5th year option next off-season.

Left guard Rodger Saffold spent the early part of his career at left tackle, but was moved inside when the Rams drafted Robinson. Even if Robinson continues to struggle, Saffold is unlikely to move back to left tackle unless an injury occurs. Saffold is no lock to stay healthy himself, missing 28 games with injury in 6 years in the league, including 11 games last season. Saffold is only going into his age 28 season so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons in the league and was horrible on 234 snaps in 2015. He may even be a downgrade from Garrett Reynolds, who was solid in Saffold’s absence last year, grading out above average. Reynolds is no guarantee to play well if Saffold gets hurt again though, as he’s graded out above average just twice in 7 years in the league and has largely been a backup throughout his career, making just 37 career starts.

Reynolds could also push to start at right guard, but incumbent 2nd year player Jamon Brown is expected to get the first shot at the starting job. He struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 70th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus in 9 starts before going down for the season with a broken leg. He could also face competition from Cody Wichmann, a 2015 6th round pick who actually outplayed Brown by a little bit as a rookie. He’s not a good option either though, grading out below average on 424 snaps. He’ll likely open the season as the primary backup, but could end up making starts at some point if Brown continues to struggle. It’s a position of weakness.

Center also figures to be a position of weakness, after Tim Barnes finished 29th out of 39 eligible centers in 16 starts in 2015, in the first significant action of his career. The 2011 undrafted free agent played just 282 career snaps prior to last season and is a backup caliber player, but the Rams don’t have another option, so he’ll get another chance in 2016, after being re-signed for 4.6 million over 2 years this off-season. His primary backup is 2014 7th round pick Demetrius Rhaney, an inexperienced player who struggled on 125 snaps in 2015. Rhaney could see playing time down the stretch if Barnes continues to struggle, but would likely not be an improvement.

The one bright spot on this offensive line is right tackle Rob Havenstein. Not only did the Rams get a great player in the 1st round of the 2015 NFL Draft with Gurley, they also got Havenstein in the 2nd round and he played well as a rookie, finishing 26th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 13 starts. The big 6-7 332 pounder is not really a candidate to move to the blindside because he’s not a great athlete, but he looks like he could be a solid starter on the right side for many years to come. He’s one of the very few capable players on this offense.

Grade: D

Defensive Line

With the offense struggling mightily, the Rams’ defense was the only reason they won any games, finishing 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Even still, they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, suggesting they weren’t even as good as their 7-9 record. In fact, 5 of their 7 wins came by 8 points or fewer, while just 3 of those losses did. Their only wins by more than 8 points came at home against the Browns and 49ers, arguably the two least talented teams in the league last season. Their offense should be better with Goff coming in, but the Rams lost a lot of talent on defense this off-season, especially in the secondary, and didn’t do much to replace the departed players.

Fortunately, things are still good on the defensive line, led by 2014 1st round pick Aaron Donald, who has quickly broken out as one of the top defensive players in the NFL. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked interior defender in 2015, ahead of Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt, and is on the short list of early candidates for that award going into 2016. He’s no one-year wonder either, finishing 1st among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a rookie, winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

When defensive end Robert Quinn is healthy, he and Donald make a dangerous combination for opposing offenses. The 2011 1st round pick missed 8 games with injury in 2015, but had missed just 1 game in 4 seasons in the league prior to 2015 and will be a very valuable re-addition in 2016 now that he’s healthy again. After struggling in his first 2 years in the league, Quinn has been a top-11 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons, with his best year coming in 2013, when he finished #1 at the position. He’s still in the prime of his career, only going into his age 26 season.

Chris Long was the other starting defensive end for years, but his 8-year tenure with the Rams ended this off-season, as the Rams made him a cap casualty ahead of his age 31 season. It might be addition by subtraction though, as Long was a declining, aging player who graded out well below average on 491 snaps in 2015. His replacement, William Hayes, is no spring chicken either, also going into his age 31 season, but he finally gets his first shot at a regular starting job. He’s made just 32 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, but has proven he deserves more playing time.

Hayes started a career high 11 games because of Long’s injury in 2015 and finished 13th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, even higher than Quinn. Despite largely being a backup through his career, Hayes has graded out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-14 among 4-3 defensive ends in 4 straight seasons in limited action. He was a wise re-signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal this off-season and could have a breakout year in his first season as a starter in 2016, though his age is a bit of a concern.

Michael Brockers rounds out the base unit as the other starting defensive tackle inside next to Donald. Also a former 1st round pick (2012), Brockers is coming off of the best season of his career in 2015, finishing 29th among interior defenders. The 6-6 322 pounder is a great run defender and has graded out above average as a run stopper in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, but has never once graded out above average as a pass rusher. He’ll essentially platoon with free agent acquisition Dominique Easley, who will enter as an interior rusher in sub packages, directly replacing free agent departee Nick Fairley.

Easley actually comes from the same first round as Donald, but has not nearly had the same career and was surprisingly cut after just 2 seasons by the New England Patriots this off-season. He showed his first round potential last season, grading out above average, but on just 275 snaps in 11 games, after being limited to 270 snaps in 11 games as a rookie and tearing his ACL twice in college. Arguably a top-5 talent, Easley fell to the late 1st round because of his injury history and leg injuries appear to be threatening his career early. It was reportedly more than just injuries that led to Easley’s release by the Patriots and we’ll probably never get the whole story, but injuries are a definite concern long-term. If he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition, but that’s a big if and the Rams have a depth problem at defensive tackle if he doesn’t.

The Rams also have a bit of a depth problem at defensive end with Long gone, as Eugene Sims is the 3rd defensive end and he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play in recent years. The 2010 6th round pick has graded out well below average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league and finished last season 107th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on 582 snaps. Even with a lack of good depth, it’s still one of the better defensive lines in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Long isn’t the only long-time veteran the Rams parted ways with this off-season, cutting declining middle linebacker James Laurinaitis. He’ll be missed as a veteran presence on what’s now the league’s youngest roster, but the Rams won’t miss his play as it had really fallen off in recent years. He’ll be replaced inside by 2013 1st round pick Alec Ogletree, who has spent the first 3 seasons of his career at outside linebacker. Ogletree’s play outside has been shaky though, as he’s graded out below average in 3 straight seasons, and he’s coming off of a broken leg that ended his 2015 season after 4 games. He’s a great athlete, but it’s unclear if moving to middle linebacker will help him reach his potential.

Mark Barron will be the other every down linebacker for the Rams, playing every down outside, a role he took over from Ogletree full-time when he got hurt. A former safety who was a bust as a first round pick of the Buccaneers, Barron was acquired for next to nothing by the Rams during the 2014 season and moved to outside linebacker, despite being very undersized for the position at 6-2 213. The position switch worked out brilliantly though, as he finished the season 20th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, despite his size. With Ogletree moving inside permanently, Barron is locked in outside and received a 5-year, 45 million contract as a free agent this off-season. He’s a one-year wonder who was probably overpaid, but he appears to have turned his career around and credit the Rams for figuring out how to use him.

The Rams need Ogletree to stay healthy and play well because they have basically no depth at the position. In fact, after making projected starting outside linebacker Akeem Ayers a final cut, the Rams are left with a pair of rookie undrafted free agents (Cory Littleton and Nic Grigsby) and 2015 7th round pick Bryce Hager, who only played special teams as a rookie, as their other remaining linebackers. One of those 3 players will have to start in Ayers’ old spot on the outside opposite Barron. It’s only a base package position, but it’s a major concern. Maybe they’ll bring in a veteran early this season, or at least someone who has ever played a defensive snap in the NFL. It’s an overall weak linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Rams’ secondary suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a pair of key starters, including cornerback Janoris Jenkins, Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked cornerback in 2015. He was overpaid on a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal by the Giants, but he’ll still be a big loss. Fortunately, the Rams did keep fellow starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson on the franchise tag, deciding to tag Johnson over Jenkins at the last minute. Johnson did outplay Jenkins slightly in 2015, finishing 19th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but he’s basically a one-year wonder. He has just 33 career starts in 4 years in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 and last season was the first season he graded out above average since his rookie year, when he played just 366 snaps. Johnson will make 13.925 million in 2016 on the franchise tag, but did not get a long-term deal this off-season, so he’ll have to play well again to get a big contract.

Also good news for the Rams is the fact that EJ Gaines returns from a broken foot that cost him his entire 2015 season. Gaines had a breakout rookie year in 2014, finishing 29th among cornerbacks in 15 starts despite being a 6th round rookie. He’s still a one-year wonder who was not drafted high, so that rookie year could prove to be a fluke, and he’s coming off of a serious injury, but he’ll be a nice re-addition for a team that needs help at the position following the loss of Jenkins. He’s the early favorite for the starting job opposite Johnson.

Coty Sensabaugh was signed to a 3-year. 14 million dollar deal this off-season by the Rams, so he has at least a shot at the starting job, but he was most likely just signed to be insurance behind Gaines and to be the 3rd cornerback. Despite a significant salary, he’s not a very good player. He’s played at least 500 snaps in each of the last 3 seasons and has 27 career starts, but has graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he finished 89th among 111 eligible cornerbacks in 15 starts for the Titans.

LaMarcus Joyner was previously the 3rd cornerback and could still some see playing time, but the addition of Sensabaugh hurts him the most. Joyner barely played as a 2nd round rookie in 2014 and graded out below average on 730 snaps last season. He could move back to his collegiate position of safety because the Rams have a major hole there following the loss of Rodney McLeod in free agency. McLeod was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked safety in 2015 and the Rams did nothing to replace him. With limited draft picks, they didn’t even add a developmental prospect through the draft at the position.

Instead, Cody Davis, Christian Bryant, and Maurice Alexander will compete for McLeod’s old job and Joyner could easily end up in the mix as well. Bryant is a 2014 7th round pick who has never played a defensive snap in his career. Davis is a 2013 7th round pick who has never started in his career and who played just 14 nondescript snaps last season. Alexander is the only one who saw any significant action last season, making 5 starts and playing 419 snaps, but the 2014 4th round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked safety in the first significant action of his career. He’s probably the favorite, but he’s not a good option. The Rams don’t really have a good option at the position though.

TJ McDonald is locked in as the other starter, as he has been since the first week of his rookie year. The 2013 3rd round pick has had an up and down career thus far, grading out below average both 2013 and 2015 and missing 11 games with injury in 3 years in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, his best football may be yet to come, but he’s an inconsistent player at the very least. He’ll need a big year this year, going into the final year of his rookie contract, for a team that lost a lot of talent in the secondary this off-season.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Rams won 7 games last season, but they were lucky to win even that many, given that many of their wins were close and many of their losses were not. They addressed their biggest need by adding a quarterback #1 overall in the draft, but had to trade away their entire draft to do so, leaving them unable to fill other holes. Besides, Goff was not a surefire top pick and could struggle as a rookie, especially with minimal talent around. They also lost several key players in free agency, including Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod, and did nothing significant to replace them or add talent elsewhere. From top to bottom, it’s one of the worst rosters in the league and I don’t expect them to win very many games.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in NFC West

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San Francisco 49ers 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick’s career got off to a good start. The 2011 2nd round pick didn’t play much as a rookie, but took over as the starter midway through the 2012 season when Alex Smith got hurt and led a very talented 49ers team to the Super Bowl, finishing 15th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. In 2013, he finished 18th on a team that just came up short in the NFC Championship against the Seahawks and was given a 6-year, 114 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie contract the following off-season.

However, things got bad in a hurry for Kaepernick and the 49ers. He fell to 28th among quarterbacks in 2014 on an injury plagued team that finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs and then, after a mass exodus of talent around him in the off-season, Kaepernick finished 37th among 38 eligible quarterbacks in 2015. He completed just 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 8 starts before getting benched for backup Blaine Gabbert and then being shut down for the season with injuries. Kaepernick’s deteriorating play is not the only reason why the 49ers have so quickly fallen from glory and they don’t have a ton of talent around him, but it’s a very problematic situation.

Just one year and 25 million dollars into that extension, the 49ers desperately tried to trade Kaepernick this off-season, but could not find a taker for his 11.9 million dollar salary for 2016, so he’ll return to the 49ers for another year with his 3rd head coach in as many seasons coming in, ex-Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly. Gabbert actually outplayed Kaepernick in 2015, finishing 27th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, and seems to be the favorite of the new coaching staff, so he’ll begin the season as the starter. He completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 2015.

As mediocre as Gabbert was last season, that was still easily the best season of his career. A massive bust as the 10th overall pick by the Jaguars in 2011, Gabbert lasted 3 seasons in Jacksonville, winning just 5 of 27 starts and completing 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, before getting shipped to the 49ers for a 6th round pick last 2 off-seasons ago. He didn’t see action as Kaepernick’s backup in 2014, before showing signs of life down the stretch last season.

He’s still unlikely to ever be a capable starting quarterback, but the 49ers don’t have a better option. They were widely expected to use an early pick on a quarterback in the draft, but, after Los Angeles and Philadelphia moved up for the #1 and #2 quarterbacks in the draft class, the 49ers settled for 6th round pick Jeff Driskel. Despite being a late round pick and not even making the final roster, Driskel might be more likely than Kaepernick to see starts for this team this season, assuming the 49ers can stash him on the practice squad. Kaepernick’s 14.5 million dollar 2017 salary is guaranteed for injury only and the 49ers don’t want to risk him getting injured and getting that money. They also owe him a prorated portion of 2 million dollars every game he’s on the active roster this season. The 49ers also could just cut him and hope someone else signs him because he has offset language in his contract, meaning the 49ers wouldn’t have to pay his full salary if he signed elsewhere. It’s the worst quarterback situation in the league.

Their offense finished 31st in rate of moving the chains last season and the team as a whole finished dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. Making matters worse, the 49ers didn’t really add much in free agency and enter the 2016 season with close to 47 million in available cap space remaining. Their roster looks like it needs another 45-50 million dollars worth of talent on it, as it’s one of the weakest in the NFL, but they had a very hard time getting anyone to want to sign with them this off-season. The 49ers figure to be in a position to take a quarterback early in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Grade: F

Offensive Line

Many thought that the 49ers, armed with a ton of draft picks, would move up back into the end of the first round to take this draft’s 3rd quarterback, Paxton Lynch. Instead, it was Denver (originally a possible trade destination for Kaepernick) moving up to grab Lynch, leaving the 49ers with the quarterback situation they have now. However, the 49ers did still use their arsenal of picks to move back up into the end of the first round, taking Stanford right guard Joshua Garnett, a surprise pick at 28 overall. He was expected to be a 2nd round pick and was probably a reach in the end of the first. As of this writing, he’s still working with the second team at left guard and right guard, so he may have to wait into the season to get a starting job.

Veteran Zane Beadles is currently penciled in as the starter at left guard, after being signed to 3-year, 11.75 million dollar deal in free agency, while Andrew Tiller is penciled in on the right side. Tiller, a 2012 6th round pick, flashed in the first significant action of his career last season, finishing 18th among eligible guards on Pro Football Focus on 615 snaps (7 starts). Beadles has made 94 of 96 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he finished 64th among eligible guards in 81 starts with the Jaguars, leading to his release. Garnett should take one of their jobs sooner rather than later. Beadles is likely the most vulnerable.

Marcus Martin also can play guard, but his best chance at playing time is still at center, where he’s spent most of the first 2 seasons of his career. The 2014 3rd round pick has been horrible thus far in his career though, finishing 36th out of 41 eligible centers as a rookie and 36th out of 40 eligible centers in 2015. He’ll face competition from Daniel Kilgore, who struggled on 268 snaps last season. Kilgore actually graded out above average in each of his first 4 seasons in the league from 2011-2014, but has just 10 career starts in 5 years in the league, so he’s far from proven. He may be a better option than Martin, but only by default.

At right tackle, Anthony Davis returns from his one year “retirement,” but is still listed with the 2nd team behind first team starter Trent Brown, who flashed on 187 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2015. Given that Davis didn’t play at all last season and didn’t report until the end of July, that could remain the case into the season, giving the 2nd year player the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Davis has more upside than anyone on this offensive line. He’s only going into his age 27 season still and finished 9th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 29th among offensive tackles in 2013, before a disappointing 2014 season and a 2015 season spent out of the league. Owed 3.625 million in 2016 on an overall weak offensive line, you have to figure he’ll get in the starting lineup at some point. He’s reportedly volunteered to play guard if it increases his chances of getting on the field and has begun taking reps there in practice.

The saving grace of this offensive line is left tackle Joe Staley, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the first round in 2007. Staley has been with the team through a lot, struggles early in his career, 3 straight NFC Championship game appearances, followed by struggles again, but has always been a great player for them. He’s the only offensive tackle in the league to finish in the top-6 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons and one of 3 starters from the 49ers’ 2011 team that still remains (linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks are the other two). He single handedly boosts an offensive line that has a lot of problems around of him.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Ex-Raven Torrey Smith was the 49ers’ big signing of last off-season, coming over on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal, but he hasn’t panned out yet, grading out below average in his first year in San Francisco in 2015. He’s unlikely to ever be worth his contract, as he’s never finished higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 5 years in the league. He’s a nice complementary deep threat and a capable #2 receiver, but the 49ers need him to be the #1 guy in the passing game and that’s just not the type of player he is.

With veteran Anquan Boldin, last year’s leading receiver with a 69/789/4 slash line, still unsigned as a free agent ahead of his age 36 season, snaps are very much up for grabs behind Smith. Like at quarterback, the 49ers surprisingly did not draft anyone at the wide receiver position before the 6th round, making last year’s 3rd receiver Quinton Patton the favorite to start opposite Smith. A 2013 4th round pick, Patton was underwhelming on 151 career snaps prior to last season and finished just below average on 424 snaps in 2015. Unless he has a breakout year in his 4th year in the league, he’s nothing more than a capable 3rd receiver and a weak starting option.

Veteran Jeremy Kerley is expected to be the 3rd receiver, but he just came over via trade from the Detroit Lions in late August, after 3rd year slot receiver Bruce Ellington went down for the season with injury. Kerley isn’t terrible, but has graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league and was limited to mediocre 223 snaps in 2015. Also just coming over via trade is Rod Streater, previously of the Chiefs, who is also in the mix for snaps. Streater, a 2012 undrafted free agent, was a league average receiver for the first 2 years of his career, catching 99 passes for 1472 yards and 7 touchdowns in 32 games with the Raiders. However, he’s been limited to just 10 catches in 4 games over the past 2 seasons by a combination of injury and poor performance. There’s some bounce back potential here, but they can’t rely on him.

The tight ends are not much better. Garrett Celek, Vance McDonald, and Blake Bell all saw playing time there last season and figure to split time again in 2016. Celek was the best of the bunch last season, grading out above average on 399 snaps, and figures to get the first shot to start in 2016 after getting a 4-year, 14 million dollar extension this off-season. However, last year was the first significant action of his career since going undrafted in 2012, so he’s probably not a great starting option.

McDonald actually led the position in snaps played last season with 473, but he graded out below average. McDonald has never graded out above average in 3 years in the league as a pass catcher, but has graded out above average as a run blocker in 2 of 3 seasons, since going in the 2nd round in 2013. Bell, meanwhile, was the worst of the bunch last season, finishing 65th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 353 snaps as a 4th round rookie. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league though, especially since the converted quarterback is still just going into his 3rd year as a tight end. He has good upside, but may never reach it. It’s a very weak receiving corps.

Grade: D

Running Backs

Carlos Hyde missed 9 games with injury, but still led the 49ers in carries with 115. He was playing well prior to going down, rushing for 470 yards and 3 touchdowns on those carries, a solid 4.09 YPC average despite a weak offense around him, and finishing 19th among running backs on Pro Football Focus. The 2014 2nd round pick is unproven with just 198 career carries, but his 4.06 career YPC average is solid all things considered and he has a chance to have a breakout year on an otherwise poor offense in 2016 if he can stay healthy. He’ll be a welcome re-addition.

Hyde’s return is especially important because 49er running backs other than Hyde rushed for just 621 yards on 196 carries last season (3.14 YPC). Shaun Draughn was the starter down the stretch with Hyde out and finished 2nd on the team in carries with 76, but turned them into just 263 yards (3.46 YPC) and 1 touchdown and finished well below average as a runner on Pro Football Focus. He did flash as a pass catcher, catching 25 passes for 175 yards and finishing 17th among running backs on Pro Football Focus in pass catching grade, so he figures to see passing down snaps in 2016, as Hyde has just 23 career catches. However, Draughn has had just 202 touches in 5 years in the league, so he’s not a reliable option.

Despite the 49ers’ issues at running back without Hyde, they still finished with a respectable 3.96 yards per carry average as a team, but that was mostly because quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert both did a good job on the ground. Kaepernick rushed for 256 yards and 1 touchdown on 45 carries (5.69 YPC), while Gabbert rushed for 185 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries (5.78 YPC). Quarterback runs have always been a part of Chip Kelly’s offense as long as he has a mobile quarterback. Everyone knows about Kaepernick’s abilities as a runner, but Gabbert has underrated athleticism as well, so whoever wins the starting quarterback job should have plenty of opportunity to take off and run, especially on a team with few other ways to move the ball.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The 49ers were obvious losers when Los Angeles and Philadelphia moved up to take quarterbacks, but they still got a great player 7th overall, taking Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, who seemed like a likely top-3 pick before the trades. Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked overall prospect in the 2016 NFL draft class, Buckner figures to be an every down starter from the word go. At 6-7 291 pounds, he’s a perfect fit for the 49ers’ 3-4 defense and compares favorably to Calais Campbell long-term. He might not be great right away as a rookie, but he should certainly be a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

He’ll start opposite last year’s 1st round pick, another ex-Oregon defensive end, Arik Armstead. The 17th overall pick in 2015, Armstead was not as good of a prospect as Buckner, but he flashed on 384 snaps as a rookie, finishing 28th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, and has proven himself worthy of a larger role. He has breakout potential in his 2nd year in the league and he and Buckner have the potential to form a formidable duo for years to come. There may be growing pains in 2016 though.

Nose tackle Ian Williams was their best defensive lineman in 2015, finishing 18th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus on 659 snaps, excelling as a run stopper, finishing 11th at his position in pure run grade. The 49ers were set to re-sign him to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season, but he ended up failing his physical and needing off-season ankle surgery. He was still kept on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with incentives worth up to 6 million, but ultimately ended up being put on injured reserve, ending his season before it started.

Fortunately, the 49ers do have decent depth on the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey returns from injury, after missing 22 games over the past 2 seasons combined, and he can play both nose tackle and defensive end in base packages on this 3-man defensive line. However, he’s going into his age 31 season and has graded out above average just twice in 7 seasons in the league. On top of that, he’s missed a total of 34 games with injury over the past 4 seasons, so he’s no lock to be healthy either. If he is, he’s better off as a versatile starter than a starter.

Quinton Dial is another player who can play either inside or outside in base packages who figures to see at least a rotational role. Dial graded out above average in 6 starts in 2014, the first significant action of his career, then led the 49ers’ defensive line with 662 snaps played last season, finishing just below average in the process. He won’t see nearly that many snaps in 2016 with Buckner coming in, but he’s still a valuable reserve who figures to have a role. This is the 49ers’ strongest unit, even though it has problems inside and inexperience outside.

Grade: B

Linebackers

As I mentioned, linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks are the only other starters remaining from the 49ers’ breakout 2011 team. A 48-game starter from 2011-2013, Bowman finished in the top-6 among middle linebackers in all 3 seasons, but suffered a devastating knee injury in the 49ers’ loss to the Seahawks to the NFC Championship, which cost him his entire 2014 season. Bowman returned to start all 16 games in 2015, but was not the same, finishing below average. He posted impressive tackle stats and did well against the run, but was not nearly the coverage athlete he used to be. Another year removed from the injury, still only going into his age 28 season, there’s bounce back potential for Bowman in 2016, but it’s also possible he’s never the same after the injury.

Brooks, meanwhile, has also declined, though age is the biggest factor with him, as he heads into his age 32 season. Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012, Brooks has finished below average in 3 straight seasons, including 88th out of 110 eligible edge defenders in 2015. He’s still penciled into a starter role, but he’ll face competition from 2nd year player Eli Harold and converted defensive end Tank Carradine. Harold flashed against the run on 344 total snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, but didn’t show much pass rush. He’s likely in for a bigger role in 2016 regardless of whether or not he wins a starting job.

Carradine, meanwhile, was a 2013 2nd round pick, but has been limited to 367 snaps in 3 seasons in the league. That’s partially because of injury, but largely because the coaching staff didn’t trust him enough to play him much. He’s always flashed as a pass rusher, but didn’t have the strength to hold up against the run as a defensive lineman in a 3-man front. He’s slimmed down to around 6-4 265, closer to his collegiate weight, to play outside linebacker for a make or break 4th year in the league, the final year of his rookie contract.

Both Carradine and Harold could see significant snaps early in the season as Aaron Lynch, the other starting outside linebacker, was suspended for the first 4 games of the season for failing a test for performance enhancing drugs. Lynch will be a big loss for the 49ers early in the year, as he was one of their best defensive players last season. He finished 29th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus and was easily the 49ers’ best pass rusher. A 2014 5th round pick, Lynch has graded out above average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league and could have a big year in his 3rd year in the league, only his age 23 season, but he’ll have to wait for week 5 for his season to start.

At the other middle linebacker spot next to Bowman, Gerald Hodges and Michael Wilhoite will compete for the starting job. Wilhoite has made 28 starts over the past 2 seasons, but has graded out below average in both seasons, including dead last out of 97 eligible linebackers in 12 starts in 2015. Hodges, acquired from Minnesota mid-season via trade, made 4 starts in Wilhoite’s absence and was better, but only by default, finishing 75th at the position on the season. Still, while Wilhoite has never graded out above average in his 5 year career, since going undrafted in 2011, Hodges flashed on 495 snaps in 2014, finishing 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers with the Vikings that season, so he at least has upside. Hodges seems like the obvious choice, but it’s reportedly a tight battle, so it’s unclear what direction they’ll go in. There’s some talent in this linebacking corps, but not a ton.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Cornerback Tramaine Brock was another one of the few bright spots on this San Francisco defense last season, making a team high 15 starts and finishing 36th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He was even better in 2013, when he finished 14th at his position on 678 snaps in 16 games (7 starts), with an injury plagued 2014 season (3 games) in between. The 2010 undrafted free agent only has 24 career starts in 6 years in the league, but he’s still only going into his age 28 season and, as long as he’s healthy, he should be locked into one of the starting cornerback jobs in 2016.

The other cornerback jobs are up for grabs, but Jimmie Ward is the favorite to start opposite Brock. Ward was actually the 49ers’ highest ranked cornerback last season, finishing just one spot above Brock in 35th, though he made just 8 starts in 16 games. A 2014 1st round pick, Ward struggled mightily on 270 snaps in 8 games in an injury plagued rookie season in 2014, but had a bit of a breakout year in 2015 and could take another step forward in 2015. A converted safety, Ward is now a full-time cornerback and likely the 49ers’ #2 cornerback in his 3rd year in the league in 2016.

That would leave Dontae Johnson and a pair of rookies competing for the 3rd cornerback job. Johnson didn’t see much action in 2015 as the 4th cornerback for most of the season, but graded out above average on 367 snaps. He also played 512 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2014, grading out right around average in both seasons. He’s likely the favorite for the job and would play outside opposite Brock in sub packages, with Ward inside to cover the slot, where he’s at his best.

As mentioned, the 49ers also drafted a pair of cornerbacks, taking Mississippi State’s Will Redmond in the 3rd and LSU’s Rashard Robinson in the 4th. Neither Redmond nor Robinson figure to be much of a factor as rookies though. Redmond is coming off of an October torn ACL and might have essentially a medical redshirt rookie year, while Robinson didn’t play football at all last year after being kicked off of the team at LSU for a violation of team rules and had just 8 collegiate starts. Both are much more long-term picks than anything.

Along with Brock and Ward, the 49ers have another solid starter in this secondary in 4th year safety Eric Reid. A 2013 1st round pick, Reid hasn’t become a star or anything yet, but has made 47 starts in 3 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons, including a 36th place finish in 2015. The 49ers made the obvious decision to pick up his 5th year option for 2017 and will work to try to re-sign him over the next calendar year. He’s someone they couldn’t afford to lose, as he’s one of their best defensive players and could have a breakout year in his 4th year in the league in 2016.

Antoine Bethea returns to start opposite Reid, after missing 9 games with injury in 2015. Bethea played poorly on 443 snaps, but was actually a little bit better than backup Jaquiski Tartt, who finished 80th out of 89 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus on 721 snaps. Bethea was a solid player in his prime, but is going into his age 32 season and has graded out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Owed a non-guaranteed 5.75 million in his age 33 season in 2017, this could easily be his final year in San Francisco. Tartt, as poorly as he played last season, is still the future starter at the position, after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015. It’s a secondary with some young talent, but still noticeable flaws.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

This is once again one of the least talented teams in the league. They finished dead last in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015 and, in a league with few truly bad teams, are the favorite to finish dead last in that metric again in 2016. They managed to win 5 wins in 2015, but might not be so lucky in 2016. Just 1 of their 5 wins came by more than 6 points, with 2 coming in overtime, while just 2 of their 11 losses came by 6 points or fewer and their average margin of defeat was 16.45 points per game. With 46 million in used cap space and no real impact additions this off-season, 2-4 wins and high draft pick seems like the most likely outcome of this season.

Prediction: 4-12 3rd in NFC West

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Seattle Seahawks 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In the past 4 seasons, the Seahawks have gone 26-6 in the final 8 games of the regular season, as opposed to 20-12 in the first 8 games. It makes sense that an organization that is as well run from top to bottom as the Seahawks’ organization is would be able to adapt on the fly better than most teams and figure out how to play at a high level by mid-season. Last year, it was the offense that carried them down the stretch, as they won 6 of their final 8 games to make the playoffs as a wild card, following a 4-4 start. They moved the chains at a 68.24% rate in their first 8 games, but that jumped to 81.18% over the next 8 games and they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains on the season. Despite “only” being a 10-6 wild card, the Seahawks entered the playoffs 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and looked like a real contender once again despite the rocky start, but fell a touchdown short in their divisional round playoff loss in Carolina.

As you can probably imagine, a lot of their strong play down the stretch was the result of Russell Wilson, who finished as a top-6 quarterback on Pro Football Focus for the 3rd time in 4 years in the league in 2015. Wilson completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.33 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season and was an MVP candidate, but he was especially good in those final 8 games, completing 67.5% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The dual threat quarterback also added 553 yards and another 1 touchdown on 103 carries (5.37 YPC) on the season.

As crazy as those numbers might seem, those are pretty par for the course for him. In 4 years in the league, Wilson has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 106 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, while adding 2430 yards and 12 touchdowns on 411 carries (5.91 YPC) on the ground. He’s had a good defense and running game supporting him, but he’s managed to put up those numbers despite inconsistent play from both his receivers and his offensive line throughout his career. A mere 3rd round pick in 2012, Wilson is one of the biggest draft steals of all-time and was kept on a 4-year, 87.6 million dollar extension last off-season ahead of his contract year. He’s one of the top few quarterbacks in the entire NFL.

The one concern is the backup quarterback spot. Wilson hasn’t missed a start in 4 years in the league, but the Seahawks only have undrafted free agent Trevone Boykin behind Wilson right now. Boykin was a talented enough prospect to get drafted and only fell because of off-the-field reasons, but the dropoff from Wilson to Boykin is probably the biggest starter to backup dropoff at quarterback in the NFL. The Seahawks were probably considering bringing back veteran backup Tarvaris Jackson this off-season if Boykin struggled in the off-season program, but that’s no longer an option after Jackson’s recent domestic violence arrest. They may look to add another veteran backup quarterback, but the market is pretty dried up at this point. They’ll obviously be hoping Wilson can stay healthy once again.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Of course, it wasn’t just Russell Wilson who played at a high level down the stretch. Running back Marshawn Lynch uncharacteristically struggled last season, rushing for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns on 111 carries (3.76 YPC), while missing 9 games with injury, including each of the Seahawks’ final 7 games. His injury was actually a bit of a blessing in disguise, as it allowed rookie backup Thomas Rawls to take over as the starting running back mid-season and he rushed for 830 yards and 4 touchdowns on 147 carries, a league leading 5.65 yards per carry average among eligible running backs. Rawls finished the season 12th among running backs on Pro Football Focus, including 4th in pure rushing grade. When he broke his leg week 14 and missed the rest of the season, it was a huge blow to this team’s chances in the playoffs.

Lynch retired ahead of his age 30 season this off-season, so this is Thomas Rawls’ job now. Unfortunately, he missed much of the off-season program rehabbing from that broken leg. He’s fully expected to play week 1, but the long rehab is a concern for a player who is trying to repeat the improbable year he had as an undrafted rookie in 2015 and do it over a 16 game season. He’s certainly a promising young running back who could put up big numbers in a big role, but he’s still not a reliable bet.

When Rawls went down last season, Christine Michael took over as the starting running back. He wasn’t as good as Rawls, which hurt them in the playoffs, but he rushed for 182 rushing yards on 39 carries in those final 3 regular season games (4.67 YPC), after coming over mid-season from the Cowboys. He was originally drafted by the Seahawks in the 2nd round in 2013, but work ethic issues limited him to 52 carries in 2 years in Seattle and ended up getting him sent to Dallas for a late round pick last off-season. In Dallas, he barely played before ending up back in Seattle via waivers and impressing down the stretch. He’ll be Rawls’ primary backup this season. He’s unproven with just 106 career carries, but has a ton of talent and has averaged 4.69 yards per carry in the regular season in his career.

The Seahawks also used a 3rd round pick on Notre Dame running back CJ Prosise, but he’ll work primarily as a passing down back as a rookie. Neither Rawls nor Michaels is a good pass catcher (9 and 4 career catches respectively), while Prosise is an ex-wide receiver who converted full-time to running back just last season. Prosise could catch 40 balls, but would need both Rawls and Michael to get injured to see significant carries as a rookie. Russell Wilson is also usually good for about 100 carries and 600 yards on the ground as well, so this is definitely still a run heavy team. Their running backs are unproven, but promising.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Along with Wilson and Rawls, wide receiver Doug Baldwin played at a very high level down the stretch, catching 47 passes for 724 yards and 12 touchdowns in the Seahawks’ final 8 games, to finish the season with 78 catches for 1069 yards and 14 touchdowns. It’s his first career 1000 yard season, but, while it was the best season of his career, he’s not really a one-year wonder. In 4 seasons prior to 2015, he had caught 196 passes for 2757 yards and 15 touchdowns, maxing out at 825 yards in 2014. Those numbers are unimpressive, but were kept down by this run heavy offense. Baldwin actually averaged an impressive 1.84 yards per route run over that time period and finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons.

His big numbers in 2015 are even more impressive when you take into account that they were still a run heavy team last season, attempting just 489 passes. Baldwin caught 75% of his 104 targets and averaged 10.28 yards per target, making Wilson to Baldwin one of the most effective quarterback/wide receiver duos in the NFL. Despite “only” finishing 21st in the NFL in receiving yards, Baldwin finished the year 7th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He might not be quite as good again in 2016, but the former undrafted free agent is a legitimate #1 receiver.

As I mentioned, Wilson has dealt with inconsistencies in his receiving corps throughout his career. In fact, Baldwin was the first Seahawks receiver to top 900 yards in a season since 2009. However, right now he has a solid group, probably the best of his career. It’s not just Doug Baldwin, as Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett are solid complementary wide receivers. Kearse made 16 starts last season and was re-signed on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, but Lockett is reportedly the favorite for the #2 job opposite Baldwin in 2016.

That makes sense. Lockett was the better of the two in 2015, grading out 32nd among wide receivers on 664 snaps as a 3rd round rookie, and has proven he deserves more playing time. Kearse is not a bad player though, with 36 starts in 4 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 7th round in the 2012 NFL Draft and 2 seasons in which he’s graded out above average, including 2015. He’s a solid #3 receiver and the contract the Seahawks signed him to this off-season was not a bad deal. It’s a nice trio of wide receivers.

The way the Seahawks played down the stretch is even more impressive when you take into account that they lost tight end Jimmy Graham for the season a torn patellar tendon week 12, after trading starting center Max Unger and a first round pick to New Orleans for him last off-season. Graham was a weird fit in Seattle because he’s not much of a run blocker and this is a run heavy team, but he still caught 48 passes for 605 yards and 2 touchdowns on 368 pass snaps in 11 games and finished 7th among tight ends in pass catching grade (11th overall).

His injury is still a major concern though, as the list of players who have torn their patellar tendon and returned as good as they were before is basically non-existent. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz still hasn’t played since tearing his in the middle of the 2014 season. He looked like he’d be ready for the 2015 season, but ended up missing the year with a variety of leg injuries. It would be a shame if the injury ruined his career, because he’s been a top-15 tight end in each of the last 5 seasons, but he’s far from a guarantee to bounce back, already going into his age 30 season. The Seahawks will certainly be hoping he can make close to a full recovery.

In his absence, Luke Willson was the starter, starting 7 games on the season overall. He’s not nearly the pass catcher that Graham is, but he is a solid all-around player who graded out above average on 451 snaps in 2015, after grading out around average in the first 2 years of his career in 2013 and 2014. The 6-5 252 pounder is the Seahawks’ best run blocking tight end, so he should have a role as the #2 tight end even if Graham is healthy. The Seahawks also drafted Ohio State tight end Nick Vannett in the 3rd round in April as insurance. He could see significant rookie year snaps if Graham can’t play. If Graham can play and plays well, this is one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, but it’s a solid group regardless.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Seahawks’ receiving corps is the best it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks’ offensive line is the worst it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, and it isn’t usually that good. They lost right tackle Breno Giacomini two off-seasons ago, left guard James Carpenter and center Max Unger last off-season, and then left tackle Russell Okung and right guard JR Sweezy this off-season. None of those players were great, but they didn’t really do anything to replace them and have arguably the worst offensive line in football as a result. They’ve always preferred to focus on other parts of the roster and mask their offensive line’s flaws with their system, Russell Wilson’s mobility, and legendary offensive line coach Tom Cable’s coaching, but they might have gone too far this time.

They don’t have a single offensive lineman who is making more than 3 million dollars this season and that’s going to be noticeable on the field. They used a first round pick on an offensive lineman, taking Texas A&M’s Germain Ifedi, but he could struggle as a rookie and was probably overdrafted. Pro Football Focus had a 6th round grade on him going into the draft. That may be an exaggeration, but most expected him to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick and he’s very raw in pass protection. He’s also moving positions, as he’ll play right guard, after spending last season at left tackle at Texas A&M. At left guard, fellow rookie Rees Odhiambo will compete with last year’s 4th round pick, Mark Glowinski, for the starting job. Glowinski played just 73 snaps as a rookie.

Ex-right tackle Garry Gilliam will move over to the left side with Okung gone, after struggling mightily as a 16-game starter at right tackle in 2015. The 2014 undrafted free agent was Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked offensive tackle out of 77 eligible in the first significant action in his career and is probably the worst starting left tackle in football. The Seahawks like his upside, but I’m skeptical. Justin Britt is the other 16-game starter who returns for the Seahawks, going into his 3rd year in the league with 32 starts already under his belt.

However, he too struggled mightily in 2015, finishing 75th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. He was even worse last season than he was as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, when he finished 74th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a 16-game starter at right tackle. He’s on his 3rd position in as many years in the league, as he’ll start at center this season. He’s no guarantee to be any better there, especially considering he didn’t even play the position at the collegiate level. Moving him inside seems like a desperation move.

Free agent acquisition J’Marcus Webb figures to start at right tackle, coming over from Oakland on a 2-year, 5.75 million dollar deal. He’s made 71 starts in 6 seasons in the league, including all 16 last season, but he has never once graded out above average. He wasn’t awful last season, playing both right tackle and right guard, but he’s a mediocre starter at best. Fellow free agent acquisition Bradley Sowell is reportedly also in the mix for a starting job, but that’s really reaching deep. Sowell hasn’t made a start since 2013, when he made 12 starts and was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle. It’s also possible 2015 4th round pick Terry Poole sees snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, after spending his entire rookie year on the bench. It’s a weak offensive line that figures to make life difficult for the rest of this offense.

Grade: F

Defensive Line

Of course, the defense was also great yet again in 2015, finishing 6th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by the usual suspects, including defensive end Michael Bennett, who has become one of the best in the league at his position. He’s been a top-7 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 5 seasons and finished last season 3rd at the position. He’s going into his age 31 season, so his age is starting to become a concern, but he should have another couple strong seasons left in the tank at least. The big 6-4 274 pounder can line up anywhere on the defensive line and often rushes the passer from the interior in sub packages.

Because of that, there are still plenty of snaps for Cliff Avril and Frank Clark to both rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. Clark flashed on 364 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2015, grading out above average, but Avril is expected to keep the starting job, after finishing last season 7th among 4-3 defensive ends as a 16-game starter. An 8-year NFL veteran, Avril has finished in the top-13 among 4-3 defensive ends in 3 straight seasons and has graded out above average as a pass rusher in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, but last season was the first year the undersized 6-3 252 pounder graded out above average against the run as well. His age is also becoming a concern, as he goes into his age 30 season, but he should be effective rushing the passer off the edge again in 2016, at the very least.

Clark, meanwhile, will play a significant role as the 3rd defensive end, with Bennett often moving inside. Clark essentially takes over for the departed Bruce Irvin as the nickel rusher. Clark also could replace Irvin at outside linebacker in base packages. Irvin played well in a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role last season and Clark, after reportedly losing 17 pounds and slimming down to 6-3 260 this off-season, could play outside linebacker in base packages as well. He’d move to defensive end in sub packages when a 5th defensive back comes in and move Bennett inside. Clark figures to have a significant role in his 2nd year in the league regardless and looked up to the task as a rookie.

In base packages, the Seahawks will start veteran Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Jarran Reed inside at defensive tackle. Rubin was re-signed on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season, while Reed will replaced departed veteran free agent Brandon Mebane, who signed with the Chargers this off-season. He’s only a two-down player at this point, but he was arguably the best run stopper in the draft and was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked prospect, so he was a good value in the middle of the 2nd.

Rubin, meanwhile, is not a terrible player, but has graded out below average in every season since 2009 and there’s no reason to expect that to change in his age 30 season in 2016. Tony McDaniel is also in the mix for snaps, but the 10-year NFL veteran has only twice finished above average on Pro Football Focus. He finished 101st out of 123 eligible interior defensive linemen last season with the Buccaneers and is unlikely to get better, going into his age 31 season in 2016. Despite depth problems at defensive tackle, it’s a deep, talented defensive line once again.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As mentioned, defensive end Frank Clark is a candidate for the two-down linebacker job, replacing Bruce Irvin completely. The Seahawks other option is starting Michael Morgan and keeping Clark 100% at defensive end as a sub package edge rusher, which they certainly could do. Morgan is a career special teamer with just 3 starts in 5 seasons in the league though, since going undrafted in 2011. Fortunately, it’s just a two down position, so the winner of that battle won’t have too tough of a job.

KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner remain as the every down linebackers, at outside linebacker and inside linebacker respectively. They’re as good as any duo in the NFL. Wright has started 72 of 76 games in 5 seasons in the league, despite falling to the 4th round in 2011, and has been a top-17 4-3 outside linebacker in each of his first 5 seasons in the league, with his best seasons coming in 2014 (6th) and 2015 (4th). Another strong season seems likely for him, only going into his age 27 season.

Wagner, meanwhile, is actually coming off of a down year, finishing “just” 18th among middle linebackers, but he was a top-12 middle linebacker in each of his first 3 seasons in the league from 2012-2014 and was 5th as recently as 2014. He’s an obvious bounce back candidate, going into his age 26 season and his 5th year in the league. Since the Seahawks drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012, he’s started 55 of 64 games over those 4 seasons. He and Wright are a great pair.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Seahawks have an incredible secondary as well, led by cornerback Richard Sherman, who is probably the best cornerback in the NFL. He “only” finished 3rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2015, but is the only cornerback in the NFL to finish in the top-5 at the position in 4 straight seasons. He’s also made all 64 starts over those 4 seasons and has never missed a game in 5 seasons in the league, since the Seahawks stole him in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

There are some that would argue that safety Earl Thomas is more important to this defense. I wouldn’t make that argument, but he’s certainly one of the best safeties in the NFL. He’s made all 96 starts in 6 years in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the first round in 2010, and he’s played well all along. He has graded out above average in all 6 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-10 in 4 of 6 seasons, including a career best 3rd in 2015. He and Sherman are both young, going into their age 27 and 28 season respectively, both signed through 2018, and should be a dominant duo for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, Kam Chancellor, the other starting safety, is coming off of a down year. He didn’t play horribly, but he finished 22nd among safeties, his lowest rank in 5 seasons as a starter. It’s a bit of a self-inflicted wound, as Chancellor foolishly tried to hold out for an extension with 3 years remaining on his current contract. Chancellor missed the entire off-season program and the first 2 games of the season, both close losses for the Seahawks, losing two game checks in the process. When he finally gave it up, it took him a little bit to get back into the flow of things and he dealt with injury issues down the stretch that limited him to a career low 11 games. He’s been present this off-season and, now healthy, is an obvious bounce back candidate. He was a top-20 safety in every season from 2011-2014, maxing out at 5th in 2012.

The Seahawks really lack cornerback depth behind Sherman though and don’t have a good option to start across from him. Cary Williams began the season as the starter opposite Sherman, but got cut by mid-season, leaving 2012 undrafted free agent DeShawn Shead to start down the stretch and into the playoffs. Shead struggled though, finishing 93rd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus on 616 snaps in the first significant action of his career. He still figures to open the season as the starter, despite his 2015 struggles.

Nickel cornerback Jeremy Lane is the unknown of the group. He’s certainly better than both Shead and Browner when he’s healthy, but has been limited to just 13 games over the past 2 seasons due to injury and has played in just 41 of a possible 64 games in his career. He’s also only played 830 regular season snaps in his career, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2012, and has just 6 starts over that time period. He’s graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, but injuries and inexperience are major concerns for him.

The Seahawks don’t seem to share those concerns, giving him a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market this off-season, a very risky deal that could pay off if he stays healthy and continues to play at a high level over a larger number of snaps. Those are both far from guarantees though. He’ll begin the season as the slot cornerback, but it wouldn’t be a shock if they gave him a shot as a starter if Shead continues to struggle, considering they essentially paid starter’s money to keep him. The Legion of Boom is not without flaws, but is still one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Seahawks have noticeable problems on the offensive line, but have the most skill position talent around Russell Wilson that they’ve ever had, with Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, and possible Jimmy Graham. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and played probably the best football of his young career down the stretch last season. The offensive line keep them from their potential, but they have a great defense as well and once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league. In a top heavy NFC, they’re one of the top few teams and should have no problem making the playoffs for the 5th straight season.

Prediction: 11-5 2nd in NFC West

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Arizona Cardinals 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Many thought Cardinals’ quarterback Carson Palmer was done at this point last year. He had graded out above average in each of the last 6 seasons, but was coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career and going into his age 36 season, so the odds were against him. Instead, he had arguably the best season of his career, completing 63.7% of his passes for an average of 8.70 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a career high 104.6 QB rating for the 13-year veteran. His 4th place finish among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus was also a career best. He did play well in 6 games in 2014 before the injury, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, leading the Cardinals to a 73.58% rate of moving the chains in the process, but that jumped to a league best 77.23% in 2015.

It’s hard to see him repeating the best season of his career in his age 37 season, but quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning have proven in recent years that you can play quarterback in today’s NFL effectively into your late 30s. You’re definitely a riskier bet in your late 30s, but Palmer still has great talent around him and is a perfect fit for Arizona’s offense, which is led by head coach and quarterback guru Bruce Arians, who has really revitalized the veteran Palmer’s career in 3 seasons together in Arizona. This is a talented team from top to bottom that has the ability to compete for a Super Bowl again in 2016, after a 13-3 season in 2015, but the bedrock of their recent turnaround has been Palmer and Arians.

Unfortunately, Palmer completely melted down in the NFC Championship game last year, completing just 23 of 40 for 235 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions in a 49-15 loss in Carolina. It was easily the worst game of his season at the worst time, but one game does not define a whole season. The Cardinals finished last season 1st in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015 and enter 2016 with a similarly strong roster that has the potential to do what last year’s team couldn’t. Much depends on Palmer fighting off Father Time for one more year.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The offensive unit that’s seen the biggest improvement in recent years is the offensive line, which used to be a huge problem for many years in Arizona. The offensive line gets even better this season with the addition of veteran guard Evan Mathis. Like Palmer, Mathis’ age is becoming a concern, but he’s quietly been one of the best guards in the league over the past few seasons. Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard in 2015, Mathis has been a top-3 guard on in each of the past 5 seasons, the only player in the league who can say that. He should have another strong year or two left in him, but that’s obviously not a guarantee at his age. A long-time left guard, Mathis will play right guard in Arizona, a huge problem position last season.

Right tackle was a bit of a problem position in 2015 as well. The Cardinals drafted Florida offensive tackle DJ Humphries in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, but he was a healthy scratch in all 16 games, including the 4 games in which starter Bobby Massie was suspended. Massie is gone as a free agent this off-season, so Humphries only has to beat out Earl Watford, who started in Massie’s absence last season. The 2013 4th round pick did well as a run blocker, but struggled in pass protection and shouldn’t be hard for Humphries to beat out in his 2nd year in the league; Watford has just 2 career starts and projects as a career backup. Humphries may struggle with growing pains in his first year as a starter in 2016, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and he has tremendous upside. Massie graded out below average last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Humphries to be an improvement.

Center was a problem position in 2015 as well and remains their only real problem position. Veteran center Lyle Sendlein has started 124 games at center in the last 9 seasons, including 15 last season, but he was not brought back ahead of his age 32 season this off-season. A solid player in his prime, Sendlein’s effectiveness has declined steadily with age and he finished last season 27th out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. He’ll be replaced by either veteran journeyman AQ Shipley or 4th round rookie Evan Brohm.

Brohm figures to struggle if he has to play, but Shipley has flashed in limited action in his career. His longest extended stretch of playing time came in 2013 at left guard, where he struggled mightily, finishing 66th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus in 9 starts. However, he’s made 13 starts at center in 2012, 2014, and 2015 combined and graded out above average in all 3 of those seasons. It remains to be seen if he can translate that to a full season as a starting center and he becomes a full-time starter for the first time in his career in his age 30 season, but he’ll get the first shot at it. It won’t be hard for him to be better Sendlein.

The left side is where this offensive line’s biggest strength is, as recent free agent acquisitions Jared Veldheer and Mike Iupati are coming off of strong seasons at left tackle and left guard respectively. Iupati signed on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from divisional rival San Francisco, where he spent the first 5 seasons of his career after they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010. Iupati was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked guard in 2015 and has finished in the top-14 among guards in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL. He was a nice addition at a reasonable rate.

Veldheer is someone they bought low on, signing him to a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, following a 2013 season in which he was limited to 5 mediocre starts by a torn biceps. That contract looks like an obvious steal now though. Aside from 2013, Veldheer hasn’t missed a game in his 6-year career and has been a top-17 offensive tackle in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015. He and Iupati are both going into their 7th year in the league and their age 29 season and both should have strong years again in 2016. It’s a strong and improved offensive line.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

As good as the offensive line is, the real strength of Palmer’s supporting cast is the receiving corps, as wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown all finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Floyd made 6 starts, but Fitzgerald and Brown were essentially the starters last season, making 16 and 11 starts respectively and leading the position in snaps. Fitzgerald and Brown put up slash lines of 109/1205/9 and 65/1003/7 respectively and were one of 4 receiving duos to both top 1000 yards in 2015 (the others were Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns).

Fitzgerald’s a future Hall-of-Famer who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games in the first 8 seasons of his career from 2004-2011. However, he looked on the decline heading into 2015, failing to top 1000 yards in 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014. Part of that was quarterback related, but he certainly was not the same player he used to be. He turned it around in 2015 though, finishing 8th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and finishing 9th in the league in receiving yards as Carson Palmer’s #1 option. Even though he was below 1000 yards in 2014, he was on pace for 85 catches for 1288 yards and 5 touchdowns over 16 games in the 6 games in which Palmer played, so he and Palmer seem to make a great combination.

The only concern with Fitzgerald is his age, which is a bit of a theme on this Arizona offense. Fitzgerald is going into his age 33 season and ranks 15th all-time with 13,366 career receiving yards. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. The end is closer that it seems for him, but he should have another couple strong seasons under his belt. He has hinted that he may want to retire at the same time as Carson Palmer, which is worth keeping in mind.

Brown is likely the future #1 receiver, as last year’s 1000 yard performance came in just his 2nd year in the league. The 2014 3rd round pick graded out slightly below average as a rookie, catching 48 passes for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns as the 3rd receiver, but finished 27th in 2015 and could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. Floyd, meanwhile, could start on pretty much any other team in the league and may be starting on another team in the league in a year, as he heads into the final year of his contract.

Floyd is probably the best #3 receiver in the league, catching 52 passes for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2015 despite not playing every down, and grading out above average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career, since the Cardinals drafted him in the 1st round in 2012. He maxed out at 22nd in 2013 and finished last season ranked higher than Brown, finishing 24th. This is definitely the top trio of wide receivers in the league. If any of them get hurt, JJ Nelson would step in and he’s got upside as the 4th receiver. He flashed on 148 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2015 and could have a significant role as soon as 2017 with Floyd heading into free agency.

The Cardinals regularly play 3 and 4 wide receivers so it’s not a huge issue, but tight end is a position of weakness. Running back David Johnson finished 4th on the team in receiving with 36 catches for 457 yards and 4 touchdowns and their top receiving tight end was Darren Fells, who finished 5th on the team with 21 catches for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fells and veteran Jermaine Gresham both return and should split snaps at the position again, after both graded out below average last season.

Fells is the better pass catcher of the two, even at 6-7 281 pounds, but has just 28 catches in 2 seasons in the league. A collegiate basketball player, Fells flashed in his first career action in 2014 on 229 snaps, but fell below average in a larger role on 672 snaps in 2015. He’d be a below average starter. Jermaine Gresham is a better blocker, but he’s not good either. The veteran has 79 career starts, but has graded out below average in 4 straight seasons. It’s a position of weakness, but the fact that they have the best wide receivers in football makes up for it in a big way.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Cardinals had to go through 3 different starting running backs in 2015, after Chris Johnson and then Andre Ellington got hurt, but the 3rd time was the charm as the Cardinals appear to have discovered a future feature back in 2015 3rd round pick David Johnson. Johnson finished the season with 581 yards and 8 touchdowns on 125 carries (4.65 YPC) on the ground, along with 36 catches for 457 yards and another 4 touchdowns through the air. He made 5 starts in 16 games and finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked running back.

He’ll enter 2015 as the lead back, but both Chris Johnson and Ellington return healthy, so it’s unclear how much of a load he’ll carry. Johnson has 630 carries over the past 3 seasons, but has averaged just 4.05 yards per carry over that time period and is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a broken leg. Ellington, meanwhile, has a career 4.40 YPC average and 100 career catches in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s only had 364 career carries and is undersized and injury prone at 5-9 199. He’s missed 11 of 48 career games with injury and his injury issues date back to his collegiate days at Clemson University and were part of why he dropped to the 6th round in 2013. He’s nothing more than a change of pace back. David Johnson is better than both, but he’s probably not going to get 300 touches or be a true feature back just yet. He’ll still be a big part of their offense though.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

As good as the Cardinals’ offense was last season, they couldn’t have been as successful as they were as a team without a good defense and they finished 5th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by a number of star caliber players, including defensive end Calais Campbell. Campbell was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2015, which was actually the worst season he’s had in the past 5 seasons, which just shows you how good he’s been in recent years. Still going only into his age 30 season, he should have another strong season in 2016 and he’s an obvious off-season extension candidate ahead of the final year of his contract.

The Cardinals used a first round pick to draft Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and he has a good shot to be the week 1 starter opposite Campbell at defensive end in this 3-4 defense. Nkemdiche spent his collegiate career inside in a 4-3, but projects as a great fit as a 5-technique defensive end in Arizona’s 3-4 at 6-3 294 pounds. Arguably a top-10 talent, character concerns and off-the-field issues dropped him to the end of the first round, but he could end up being a steal.

His only competition for the job is incumbent Frostee Rucker, who is coming off of a below average season and going into his age 33 season. He’s managed to stay in the league for 10 seasons at this point, but he’s graded out above average just twice in Pro Football Focus’ 9-year history. Nkemdiche has a shot at an every down role as a rookie, pushing Rucker into purely a reserve role behind Nkemdiche and Campbell. He’s a bit of a boom or bust prospect, but Nkemdiche figures to be an upgrade as a rookie at the very least.

Inside at nose tackle, the Cardinals are getting Corey Peters back from a torn achilles that cost him his entire 2015 season. He’s no guarantee to get the starting job back, as replacement Rodney Gunter finished just about average on 414 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015, while Peters isn’t exactly a great player. The 2010 3rd round pick has graded out above average just once in 6 seasons in the league, has missed 25 games with injury over that time period, and has torn his achilles twice in the past 30 months. Peters should get the first crack at the job, but Gunter looks like the future at the position. It’s a position of weakness on an overall strong defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Cardinals’ big off-season acquisition was New England edge player Chandler Jones, who they acquired for a 2nd round pick and fringe starting right guard Jonathan Cooper. At first glance, the move makes a lot of sense. Despite a strong season overall as a team, the Cardinals didn’t have a returning outside linebacker with more than 4 sacks last season, while Chandler Jones finished 5th in the NFL in sacks with 12.5 and has experience both at 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker, which he’ll play in Arizona.

However, Jones was not quite as good as his raw sack totals suggest, finishing 35th among edge defenders. He’s finished above average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league and does fill a major need for the Cardinals, but the Cardinals paid a steep price, especially considering he may end up being a one-year rental. The Patriots were so willing to trade him because he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and they weren’t willing to pay him what it might cost to keep him. A deal similar to Olivier Vernon’s 5-year, 85 million dollar deal might be needed and that’s not quite worth it. A massive contract and a 2nd round pick is a lot to acquire Jones, who isn’t a top level player. With an aging core, the Cardinals seem to be going all in on the 2016 season.

Markus Golden and Alex Okafor led the position in snaps played last season and both figure to see significant roles again in 2016, even with Jones coming in. Golden figures to get the first chance to start, going into his 2nd year in the league, after grading out above average on 518 snaps as a rookie. Okafor, meanwhile, graded out below average on 613 snaps in 2015. The 2013 4th round pick has made 25 starts in 3 years in the league, but has never graded out above average, so he’s probably better off in a reserve role.

Inside, the Cardinals return both starting linebackers Deone Bucannon and Kevin Minter, who both made all 16 starts. They had opposite seasons though, as Bucannon finished 23rd among linebackers, while Minter was all the way down in 78th out of 97 eligible. A first round pick in 2014, Deone Bucannon played both linebacker and safety as a rookie, but struggled at safety and got moved full-time to middle linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, despite only being 6-1 216. In today’s NFL, you can play linebacker well at that size if you’re good enough in coverage, which Bucannon is. He could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league and his 2nd year full-time at linebacker in 2016.

The other middle linebacker spot is probably the biggest weakness remaining on this talented defense. Minter, a 2nd round pick in 2013, graded out above average in 2014, but had never been anything more than a two-down run stopping middle linebacker who played less than half the snaps before last season and seemed overwhelmed in an every down role, particularly in coverage. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, Minter could be replaced next off-season, but they don’t have an obvious alternative on the roster. It’s a solid unit overall regardless.

Grade: B

Secondary

Along with Calais Campbell, defensive backs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu carried this defense in 2015, particularly the latter. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked defensive back in 2015, playing both safety and slot cornerback, but tore his ACL week 15 and missed the rest of the season. Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense melting down made it basically impossible for the Cardinals to win the NFC Championship, but the Cardinals clearly missed Mathieu down the stretch and his absence definitely contributed to the Cardinals falling short, despite such a strong regular season. The Cardinals have a lot of valuable players, but he was their most valuable on defense.

This injury is especially concerning because it’s the 2nd time he’s torn it in his NFL career and he’s only going into his 4th year in the league. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback as a 3rd round rookie in 2013 and was a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but tore his ACL late in the season and was limited to 438 nondescript snaps in 2014. He appeared to put the injury behind him in a dominant 2015 season, but now is dealing with another long recovery and more uncertainty.

Mathieu has vowed to only return when he’s 100% and not rush it like the last time around, but he’s still a candidate to play week 1. His recovery is obviously worth monitoring and there are no guarantees he’s the same player right away when he does return. The good news for Mathieu is he’s still only going into his age 24 season so he should recover quicker and, if he can put the injuries behind him, he can still have a very good, long career. The Cardinals don’t seem too concerned about his health long-term, giving him a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2016. He’s now the 7th highest paid defensive back in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He’s well worth it if he can stay healthy.

Peterson is also locked up long-term, signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar extension two off-season ago, after the 2011 5th overall pick had been in the league for just 3 seasons and had 2 more years left on his rookie deal. The extension is actually just starting now. Peterson finished 16th among cornerbacks in 2012 and 14th in 2013, but graded out below average in 2014 after signing the extension. However, that was only because he dealt with complications from undiagnosed diabetes all season and he bounced back in a big way with his diabetes under control in 2015, finishing a career best 5th. Still only going into his age 26 season, Peterson has made all 80 starts in 5 seasons in the league, despite his health issues, and, with his health under control, is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.

Peterson will shadow opponent’s #1 receivers, while Mathieu will play safety in base packages and cover the slot in sub packages, where he excels. If Mathieu misses the start of the season, Tony Jefferson and Tyvon Branch will be the starters at safety. Jefferson has started 17 games in 3 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2013 and has generally played well overall, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, including 18th in 2015. He’s never been an every down starter for a full season like he’s expected to be in 2016, with veteran free agent Rashad Johnson signing with the Titans, but he could have a breakout year and command a significant contract as a free agent next off-season. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

Branch, meanwhile, comes over from Kansas City on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Branch was limited to 4 games by injury from 2013-2014, but bounced back in a part-time role with the Chiefs last season, grading out above average on 428 snaps between the regular season and post-season. When Mathieu returns, Branch figures to only play about half the snaps in Arizona as well, coming in as a 3rd safety in sub packages when Mathieu moves to cornerback. His injury history is a concern, but he’s still only going into his age 30 season after all that and has graded out above average in each of his last 3 healthy seasons and could easily be solid in a situational role again in 2016.

Cornerback, on the other hand, becomes a very thin position if Mathieu isn’t on the field, covering the slot. Justin Bethel appears to be locked in as the starter opposite Peterson regardless, despite grading just slightly below average on 443 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2015, after spending the first 3 seasons of his career from 2012-2014 as solely a special teamer. He’s a 3-time Pro Bowl special teamer in 4 years in the league since the Cardinals drafted him in the 6th round in 2012 and the Cardinals clearly believe in him as a defensive player as well, keeping him long-term with a 3-year, 15 million dollar extension last off-season, but he’s a complete projection to a starting cornerback role with just 4 career starts. He’ll be picked on a lot with Peterson locking down one side of the field well and could easily struggle in that role. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie Brandon Williams would likely see action on the slot if Mathieu isn’t ready for the start of the season and could step into the starting lineup by season’s end if Bethel struggles. It’s a strong secondary, but so much is reliant on Mathieu’s health.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league last season and figure to be one of the best in the league once again in 2016. They had no major losses this off-season and added short-term starters at positions of need in Evan Mathis (right guard) and Chandler Jones (edge defender), giving them one of the best lineups in the NFL. Whether or not they win the Super Bowl is going to depend largely on an aging core continue to play at a high level and the return of potential Defensive Player of the Year Tyrann Mathieu from his 2nd torn ACL in 3 seasons.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC West

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Minnesota Vikings 2016 NFL Season Preview

September 4, 2016 stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Quarterback

The Minnesota Vikings finished the 2013 season 5-10-1 and among the worst teams in the NFL. However, it’s been a steady climb for them over the past 2 seasons, culminating with a 2015 NFC North title, on the strength of an 11-5 record. Easily the two biggest reasons for the Vikings’ improvement in recent years were added the off-season after that 5-win 2013 season, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and head coach Mike Zimmer. I’ll get into more about Zimmer in the defensive section, because the long-time NFL defensive coordinator has made his biggest impact on that side of the ball, but Zimmer was a very savvy hire, as he’s respected around the league and had been successful as a defensive coordinator in 14 seasons with 3 teams prior to becoming the head man in Minnesota. How it took him this long to get a look as a head coach is beyond me and the rest of the league’s loss has been Minnesota’s gain.

The same is true of Bridgewater in a sense. He fell in the draft because of concerns about his arm strength, but the Vikings traded back up into the first round and grabbed Bridgewater at #32 overall, after the likes of Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel (lol). Through 2 seasons, Bridgewater was certainly rewarding them, as he made 28 starts in the last 2 seasons, including all 16 last season. His raw numbers don’t jump out, as he’s completed 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions in 2 seasons in the league, but he played better than his numbers. His production was largely kept down by a weak receiving corps.

Going into 2016, the Vikings had the look of a team on the cusp of being great, with one of the NFL’s most talented rosters. However, they were dealt a significant blow this August when Bridgewater suffered a brutal knee injury, tearing his ACL, dislocating his kneecap, and getting knocked out for the season with less than 2 weeks before the start of the season. Bridgewater is reportedly not only out for 2016, but there are real concerns about his ability to be healthy for 2017 as well. Given that, it’s no surprise they made a desperation move on the season’s eve, trading a 2017 1st round pick and a conditional 2018 pick to the Eagles for starting quarterback Sam Bradford, 8 days before their week 1 game.

Bradford was expendable in Philadelphia because they already had veteran quarterback Chase Daniel and rookie #2 overall pick Carson Wentz, but he’s an obvious upgrade in Minnesota over backup Shaun Hill. Going into his age 36 season, Hill has played well enough in his career to still be around at this point, but his numbers weren’t great in his last significant action in 2014 (63.3% completion, 7.24 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and now he’s two years older. Hill may still start the first couple weeks of the season as Bradford learns the playbook, but they paid a lot to get Bradford so he’ll be on the field sooner rather than later.

How he’ll fare in Minnesota after spending the whole off-season in Philadelphia is a legitimate concern, but, on paper, Bradford appears to be a capable replacement for Bridgewater. Neither quarterback has a great arm, but Bradford actually finished one spot higher than Bridgewater last season on Pro Football Focus (12th vs. 13th) and his numbers were comparable as well, as he completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.00 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. They paid a lot for him, but this is a talented team that can win now and the Vikings didn’t want to pass on an opportunity to get a quarterback who can win a Super Bowl with enough supporting talent. That’s simply not what Hill was.

The good news is this is not a team built around the pass. They passed just 454 times last season. For comparison sake, the Saints completed more passes than the Vikings attempted last season. They joined the Seahawks, Panthers, and Bills as the only teams in the league who ran more often than they passed. Even though Bradford isn’t quite nearly as mobile as Bridgewater (who took off 44 times last season), that should continue in 2016. They have a strong defense supporting them and one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

With a strong overall roster, wide receiver was easily the Vikings’ biggest need going into the off-season and they predictably addressed it in the first round by taking Mississippi wide receiver LaQuon Treadwell 23rd overall. Treadwell might not enter the season as the starter, as he’ll face competition from veterans Charles Johnson and Adam Thielman, but will likely have a significant role by the middle of the season. Johnson and Thielman have just 40 and 20 career catches respectively in 3 seasons in the league. Johnson went in the 7th round in 2013 and Thielman went undrafted, so it’s not like either was a hot commodity coming out of school. Treadwell has much higher upside than both.

Johnson is reportedly the favorite to open the season as the starter though, unsurprising considering rookie receivers sometimes take a little bit to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Johnson would start opposite 2nd year receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs isn’t a true #1 receiver, but he was a steal in the 5th round last year. Despite only playing 13 games and starting just 9 of them, Diggs led the team in receiving with 52 catches for 720 yards and 4 touchdowns on 371 routes run and finished 25th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, higher than fellow rookie Amari Cooper, who had better numbers, but saw many more targets and ran many more routes. He and Treadwell are still unproven and inexperienced, but make a nice, young duo with good upside.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph is also a factor in the passing game, but injuries remain a concern for him. He played all 16 games last season, but missed 15 games with injury in 2013 and 2014. Rudolph finished 13th among tight ends in each of the first 2 years in his career, especially excelling as a run blocker, but wasn’t the same even when he was on the field in 2013 and 2014 and fell to 23rd among tight ends (out of 67 eligible) in 2015. That’s not terrible and he’s still only going into his age 27 season, but the Vikings probably expected more when they gave him a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago.

Rhett Ellison has been the #2 tight end for the past couple seasons, but he tore his patellar tendon in January. That’s as serious as a knee injury can be. In fact, no one has come back the same from the injury in recent memory and it has ended several careers. He’s highly unlikely to be ready for week 1, just 8 months after the injury, and could easily miss the entire season. That leaves 2015 5th round pick Mycole Pruitt (who played 242 nondescript snaps as a rookie) to compete for 6th round rookie David Morgan for the #2 job. It’s an improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As mentioned, the Vikings will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson and this running game in Bridgewater’s absence. Peterson ranked just 27th among running backs on Pro Football Focus last season, but that’s largely because of his deficiencies on passing downs. He ranked 8th at the position in pure run grade, rushing for 1485 yards and 11 touchdowns on 327 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In a league where 300+ carry running backs are almost a thing of the past, Peterson led the league and had 39 more carries than anyone else. With offensive coordinator Norv Turner being a very traditional guy and Peterson being who he is, I don’t expect his usage to change much.

The one concern is age for Peterson, as he goes into his age 31 season with 2381 career carries. He ranks 17th all-time in rushing yards with 11,675, but, of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. Peterson is no ordinary running back, but neither is the average Hall-of-Famer, so most likely Peterson is entering the final 2-3 good seasons of his career, even if he doesn’t look like it. I’d be surprised if his abilities fell off a cliff this season though.

Peterson has always struggled on passing downs and taking him off the field in more passing situations could be a good way to keep Peterson fresher. That would give more playing time to backup Jerrick McKinnon. McKinnon has just 165 carries in 2 seasons in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2014, but he’s rushed for 809 yards on those carries, an average of 4.93 YPC, and has been solid in the passing game as well, adding 48 catches for another 308 yards. He’ll remain the primary backup to Peterson and could see an increase in snaps, especially in obvious passing situations. Peterson and McKinnon are a strong duo on what should remain a run heavy team.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another reason why this should remain a run heavy team is the fact that the offensive line is much better at run blocking than they are in pass protection. Despite only 454 pass attempts, the Vikings allowed 45 sacks, but part of that was Bridgewater holding onto the ball too long and the offensive line also frequently opened holes for the running game. Their best offensive lineman last season was center Joe Berger, who finished 2nd among centers on Pro Football Focus. That’s surprising considering he had made 38 starts in just 10 seasons in the league prior to last season. However, he’s always played well whenever he’s had a chance, grading out above average in every season in which he’s played since Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007. Even going into his age 34 season, he has a chance to be a good player again in 2016.

Berger wasn’t even supposed to be in the starting lineup last season and only took over when long-time center John Sullivan injured his back before the season and ended up missing the whole year. Sullivan was with the Vikings for most of this off-season, but ultimately got cut, owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2016. Berger is a pretty center right now than Sullivan, but they may regret cutting Sullivan. They could have easily kept Sullivan and moved Berger to guard, where he’s actually spent most of his career.

Sullivan is a great player when healthy and doesn’t have an injury history, making 63 starts from 2011-2014 and grading out in the top-12 among centers in all 4 seasons and in the top-3 in 3 of those 4 seasons. Even going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, he’ll be missed. Instead of keeping Sullivan and moving Berger to left guard or starting incumbent left guard Mike Harris (Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard in 2015), who they re-signed for 2 million over 1 year this off-season, the Vikings brought in free agent right guard Alex Boone and will move incumbent right guard Brandon Fusco to left guard.

Fusco and Boone are not bad guards, but they’re not great either. Fusco was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked guard in 2013, but has proven to be a one-year wonder, grading out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, making 59 starts over that period of time. He’s a solid starter, but an unspectacular player. The same is true of Boone, who was Pro Football Focus 3rd ranked guard in 2012, but has finished 39th, 18th, and 38th in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. He was overpaid on a 4-year, 26.8 million dollar deal by a team that didn’t seem to need him.

The Vikings’ starting offensive tackles are equally uninspiring. Ex-Bengal Andre Smith was brought in to be the starter on the right side, signing for 3.5 million over 1 year as a free agent this off-season. Smith was a 45-game starter for the Bengals at right tackle from 2011-2013, finishing in the top-28 among offensive tackles in all 3 seasons, but has been limited to 22 games by injury over the past 2 seasons and has graded out below average in both seasons, including 56th out of 77 eligible in 2015. Going into his age 29 season, his best days are likely behind him and he’s reportedly not having a good off-season.

As a result, TJ Clemmings, who is technically the incumbent after making 16 starts as a 5th round rookie in 2015, could beat out Smith, the heavy favorite when he signed. Clemmings predictably struggled as a rookie, finishing 62nd out of 77 eligible offensive tackles and was only in the starting lineup because the now retired Phil Loadholt got injured. Smith ought to be able to beat him out and if he can’t, it’s likely a bad sign for Smith’s career, rather than a good sign for Clemmings’ career.

With neither Clemmings or Smith capable of playing the left side effectively either, Matt Kalil is locked in at the position where he’s made all 64 starts over the past 4 seasons, since going 4th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. Kalil looked worth the pick as a rookie, finishing 21st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, but he’s declined significantly since then, grading out below average in each of the past 3 seasons, including 46th in 2015. He’ll have another shot to turn it around in 2016, but I don’t have high expectations for him. It’s an overall underwhelming offensive line outside of center.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, long-time defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has had a profound impact on the Vikings’ defense since he took over as head coach prior to the 2014 season. He inherited a defense that finished 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013 and has led them to finish 23rd in 2014 and 13th last season. Obviously, that’s not all Zimmer, but a young defense has come of age under his leadership. One player who is not young is 9-year veteran defensive end Brian Robison, who is going into his age 33 season. Despite that, he’s still coming off of a solid year, finishing slightly above average on Pro Football Focus, the 7th time he’s done that in 8 seasons in the league. However, his age is concerning and his rough 2014 season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th worst 4-3 defensive end, could be a preview of things to come. At the same time, I would not be surprised if he had another solid year left in the tank.

Either way, Robison should see fewer snaps this season, as 2015 3rd round pick Danielle Hunter showed a lot of promise as a rookie, finishing 42nd among edge defenders on 426 snaps. He has the look of a future starter and should work in close to even rotation with Robison, which could help the veteran as he ages. Hunter’s emergence probably means that this is Robison’s final year in Minnesota. He’d be owed 5.6 million between salary and bonuses in 2016 under the current terms of his contract, likely too much for him at that stage in his career.

Everson Griffen remains as an every down starter on the opposite side and has made 31 of 32 starts over the past 2 seasons. He’s the perfect example of a player who has coming into his own under Zimmer. A 2010 4th round pick, Griffin started just 1 game in the first 4 seasons of his career from 2010-2013 and, while he had flashed in limited action as a rotational reserve at both defensive end and defensive tackle, he never finished higher than 20th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus. That jumped to 8th in 2014 and then he finished 20th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. The Vikings may not have had to pay him 42.5 million over 5 years to keep him as a free agent two off-seasons ago, but he’s certainly been worth it over the past 2 years of the deal.

Griffen still rushes the passer from the interior from time to time, which opens up more pass rush snaps for guys like Hunter and outside linebacker Anthony Barr (more on him later). However, the Vikings have a pretty good situation at defensive tackle, where Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd return as starters. Joseph had an outstanding year in 2015, finishing 3rd among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, that’s pretty out of character for him, as he had never finished higher than 24th in 5 seasons in the league. He’ll likely never have a season as good as he did last season again, but he’s an obvious asset upfront for the Vikings.

Floyd on the other hand, had a great 2014 season, but was much more middle of the pack in 2015. Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, Floyd finished 50th out of 123 eligible interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. Only going into his age 25 season, the 2013 1st round pick has a higher upside than Joseph, but both are more than solid starters at the position. The issue is depth, as Tom Johnson, a declining player going into his age 32 season, is their only real depth at the position.

Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked defensive tackle on 444 snaps in 2014, but that’s the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average. He finished 81st out of 123 eligible defensive tackles in 2015. With few needs, I was surprised the Vikings didn’t add a young defensive tackle in the draft. They have 2014 7th round pick Shamar Stephen, but he struggled mightily on 414 snaps as a rookie in 2014. Still, it’s obviously a deep defensive line across the board.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As I mentioned, outside linebacker Anthony Barr occasionally rushes the passer as a defensive end in sub packages, especially in dime packages when the Vikings only use 1 linebacker. He’s primarily a coverage linebacker in pass situations, but excels in all 3 phases of the game, rushing the passer, dropping into coverage, and stopping the run. He finished 8th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014 and then 2nd among all linebackers (behind Carolina’s Luke Kuechly) in 2015.

A rare athlete at 6-5 255, Barr has only been playing defense for 5 seasons (spending his first 2 seasons at UCLA as a fullback/running back). Only going into his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for the 2014 9th overall pick. As valuable as the addition of Bridgewater at 32 was to their offense, the addition of Barr at 9 in that same draft has been equally valuable to this defense. By adding Barr, Bridgewater, and Zimmer, the foundation for last year’s playoff run was established 2 off-seasons ago.

The rest of the linebacking corps is not as good. Second year player Eric Kendricks starts every down in the middle again. He struggled as a rookie, finishing 56th out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but the Vikings are obviously giving him another shot and hoping the 2nd round pick can take a step forward in his 2nd year in the league. On the other side, Chad Greenway has made 135 starts in 9 seasons in the league, but is a shell of himself going into his age 33 season and looks at about the end of the road. He’s graded out below average in 5 straight seasons, including 61th out of 97 eligible linebackers last season.

He’ll face competition from free agent acquisition Emmanuel Lamur, but he’s not really any better; there’s a reason the Vikings were able to get him for only 5.5 million over 2 years. He’s made 15 starts over the past 2 seasons, but finished 39th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014 and 82nd out of 97 eligible linebackers last season, even worse than Greenway. He’s best off as a reserve, but he could be pressed into a starting role. Fortunately, it’s a purely base package role, so whoever wins the job won’t play more than half the snaps and will come off the field for a 5th defensive line in sub packages. Barr elevates the group a lot by himself, but the unit has problems.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Vikings may be overall a young defense and have 5 players on defense drafted in the 1st round since 2012 (Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd, and 3 defensive backs, who I’ll get into in a minute), but they also have the 2nd oldest defensive player in the league (behind Pittsburgh’s James Harrison) in Terence Newman, who is heading into his age 38 season. Newman still played well last season, making 16 starts and grading out above average for the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons, but it’s hard to rely on someone his age. Given that the Vikings used their 1st round pick on Trae Waynes in 2015 and their 2nd round pick on Mackensie Alexander in 2016, Newman will have plenty of competition for his job and probably won’t play as many snaps as he did in 2015.

Waynes and Alexander might not have big roles though. Waynes barely played as a rookie, playing pretty well on 215 snaps, and the Vikings didn’t lose any cornerbacks this off-season. In fact, they gained one with the addition of Alexander. Alexander was a great value in the late 2nd round, as most expected him to be a top-40 pick. A more natural slot cornerback than Waynes, Alexander will likely compete with incumbent slot cornerback Captain Munnerlyn for the slot cornerback job, while Waynes competes for snaps outside with Newman.

Don’t expect Alexander to win that battle though, as Munnerlyn was arguably the Vikings’ top cornerback last season, finishing 18th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, primarily playing on the slot, where he excels. He’s given up less than 1.1 yards per route run on the slot over the past 3 seasons. Though he’s undersized at 5-9 195, he can also play outside if needed and has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, maxing out at 10th overall in 2013 with the Panthers. Alexander will likely have to wait until next season to see much playing time. Munnerlyn is a free agent at the end of the season.

The only cornerback locked into his current role is Xavier Rhodes, a 2013 1st round pick who has started 32 games over the past 2 seasons. He’s graded out above average in 3 seasons in the league, but has never finished higher than 21st among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and fell to 58th in a down year in 2015. His biggest issue has always been penalties, as he’s committed 22 in the last 2 seasons combined. Going into his 4th year in the league and his age 26 season, the Vikings are hoping he can cut down on the penalties and put it all together. The Vikings may not have a true #1 cornerback, but they have ridiculous depth at the cornerback position.

Along with Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Trae Waynes, the 5th defensive player the Vikings have drafted in the first round since 2012 is Harrison Smith, who might be the best of the bunch. It’s close between Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith for the Vikings’ most valuable defensive player, but both are All-Pro caliber players who are among the best in the league at their respective positions. Smith was Pro Football Focus #2 ranked safety in 2014 and them moved up to #1 in 2015. The Vikings gave him a well-deserved 5-year, 51.25 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year, making him the 3rd highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average annual salary.

Things are not as good at the other safety position. The Vikings mentioned several times publicly this off-season that they wanted to add a big-time safety this off-season, which made sense, given that incumbent Andrew Sendejo struggled mightily last season (finishing 85th out of 89 eligible safeties) and given that they had few other needs and adequate cap space with which to work. Instead, before free agency even started, they ended up re-signing Sendejo to a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal. The Vikings did add Michael Griffin on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal, but the veteran didn’t even make the final roster, despite a $750,000 signing bonus. It’s a position of weakness in an overall strong secondary.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

I’ve had to change Minnesota’s season preview twice this week, first for the injury to Bridgewater then for the trade for Bradford. On paper, Bradford and Bridgewater are incredibly similar players, so the Vikings have a good chance to make the playoffs again, but it’s tough to know how Bradford will fare, being brought in with just 8 days to go until the start of the season. This is a talented team that’s built around their running game and defense, which makes life easier for Bradford, but they’re not a lock to return to the post-season.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in NFC North

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