2016 Week 1 NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

When the Eagles traded away Sam Bradford 8 days before the start of the season last Saturday, that dropped this spread from 6.5 or 7 to 3.5, where it still stands now. Trading away Bradford definitely hurts this team, as you hate switching quarterbacks that close to the start of the season and Bradford showed himself to be a capable starter this season, but this line seems way too low. Plus, Bradford will be replaced by the #2 overall pick in the draft, Carson Wentz, so the Eagles might still be in capable hands, even if he does have growing pains as a rookie.

The Eagles don’t have a ton of skill position talent around him, but Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Sproles give Wentz a trio of solid options in the passing game, while both Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham have potential in their 2nd years in the league and running back Ryan Mathews has been successful as a feature back in the past when he’s been healthy, which he currently is. They also have a strong offensive line, especially with right tackle Lane Johnson allowed to play while appealing his suspension, and the defense should be much improved this season with several off-season additions and Jim Schwartz coming in as defensive coordinator.

They’re certainly much, much better than Cleveland, who was one of the worst teams in the league last season and could be even worse in 2016. They finished last year 4th worst in rate of moving the chains differential and lost 11 starters this off-season. Not all of the players they lost were good, but guys like Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Desmond Bryant, Karlos Dansby, and Donte Whitner will be missed. They did add some players, including quarterback Robert Griffin, who still has upside in his age 26 season, and they had a good draft, but this is arguably the worst roster in the NFL. Carson Wentz has a chance to have a great game against the Browns’ terrible defense. This line suggests that these two teams are essentially even, which is not remotely true. Even though 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I don’t like the Browns’ chances of even keeping this one close, so I have no problem laying the 3.5 with the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

Most of my top picks this week are underdogs, but here’s a favorite that seems to be undervalued for some reason. The Seahawks are 10.5 point favorites, which might seem like a lot, but it’s not when you consider how much better Seattle is than Miami. The Dolphins won 6 games last season, but finished 2nd worst in rate of moving the chains differential and 5th worst in point differential, so they were even worse than that 6-10 record suggested. They’ll be better coached this season with Adam Gase coming in, but they also lost a trio of talented players in free agency, losing Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Derrick Shelby. They’re also without talented center Mike Pouncey because of injury.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won 10 games last year, but were once again a top-3 team in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Returning a pretty similar team to the one that played so well down the stretch last season, the Seahawks figure to be one of the best teams in the league again. It’s weird that they’re being underrated by the oddsmakers, but I think this line would be at least 14 in mid-season, especially considering the Seahawks are 51-27 ATS at home since 2007. This one won’t be close and Seattle is the obvious Survivor Pick this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

Here’s another line I don’t understand. The Steelers are favored by 3 points on the road, which might not seem like a lot, but it means they have to win by more than 3 points to cover, and 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer. It’s also the equivalent of being about 8 or 9 point favorites at home and suggests the Steelers are about 6 points better than the Redskins, which doesn’t make much sense. The Redskins aren’t a great team, but they have a solid squad, while the Steelers are at less than 100% to start the season, missing #2 wide receiver Markus Wheaton, tight end Ladarius Green, and running back Le’Veon Bell.

This line should be much closer to even, so I love getting the full field goal with the Redskins. The Steelers also have never been great at these non-divisional road games against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era. Tomlin is a great coach overall, but his teams have historically not gotten up for in “trap games” like this against unfamiliar opponents, as the Steelers have gone 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007. This might end up being a push because of how common field goal games are, but I like the Redskins chances to keep it at least within a field goal and likely win outright. I think the money line at +135 is also a good value.

Washington Redskins 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The 49ers were the worst team in the league last season, finishing dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They managed to win 5 games, but just 1 of those 5 wins came by more than 6 points, while their average margin of defeat was 16.45 points per loss. All those 5 wins really did for them was take them out of position to draft a quarterback early, leaving them to start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. With 46 million in unused cap space following an off-season in which they had a very tough time convincing anyone to sign with them, this might be the least talented team in the league once again. This time they might not be fortunate enough to win 5 games (or unfortunate enough depending on how you look at it).

However, the Rams might be equally bad. At the very least, they’re close. They won 7 games last season, but they also needed good luck in close games to even go 7-9. Of those 7 wins, 5 came by 8 points or fewer, while only 3 of their 9 losses did, as they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential overall. They were better than the 49ers last season, but their off-season was even worse than the San Francisco’s. The 49ers didn’t get any better, but the Rams actually got worse. They lost a pair of talented defensive starters in Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod in free agency and traded away their entire draft to move up to #1 to reach for California quarterback Jared Goff, who won’t even be the starter to begin the season.

Outside of running back and defensive line, the Rams have major problems all over the field, especially in the receiving corps, in the secondary, and on the offensive line. I’m confused why they’re favored here on the road in San Francisco, even by 2.5 points. These two teams are much more even than that suggests and the Rams aren’t good enough to be road favorites against anyone. I wish we were getting a full field goal with the 49ers because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but I like the 49ers to win here at home. That’s probably the only time I’ll say that this season.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Los Angeles Rams 10 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Chiefs are favored here by 6.5 points at home over the Chargers. If you took these two teams’ records from last season, that makes sense, as the Chargers won just 4 games and the Chiefs won 11. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While the Chargers only won 4 games, they were competitive in most of their games, only losing by more than 8 points three times, including just 1 loss by more than 8 points on the road. Close losses weren’t the end of their bad luck last season, as they had the 2nd worst special teams performance in the league in terms of DVOA and had a -5 differential in return touchdowns. Both of those things tend to be pretty random and hard to predict on a year-to-year basis and even average performance in both of those metrics helps this team win more close games. They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards and finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 5 spots behind the Chiefs.

That’s despite the fact that they had among the most injuries in the league last season, finishing with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. They were especially banged up down the stretch and still managed to keep it close with the Chiefs week 14, covering as huge road underdogs in a 7 point loss. The Chargers are much healthier this season, with the likes of Keenan Allen, Orlando Franklin, and King Dunlap returning after injury plagued 2015 seasons. They also added Matt Slauson and Casey Hayward, two very underrated signings, this off-season, though they lost long-time safety Eric Weddle and will be without #3 overall pick Joey Bosa in this one, as he works back into shape after a stupid off-season holdout.

Instead, the Chiefs are the ones coming into the season banged up, as Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, two of their best players, will miss the start of the season with knee injuries. Both were out for last year’s close call with the Chargers week 14, but the Chiefs are also now without top cornerback Sean Smith, who left as a free agent this off-season. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 3 (suggesting these two teams are about even) and the Chargers actually played better on the road last season than at home, where they have very few fans, so I like the Chargers’ chances of taking this one straight up. At the very least, the game should be even closer than the 7 point game played between these two teams in Kansas City week 14 last season and the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up are better than the +230 money line suggests.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

The 2016 NFL season starts exactly the same way the 2015 NFL season ended, with the Panthers facing the Broncos. Unlike last year, this is not the Super Bowl, but this game still could have major playoff implications and it’s an early litmus test for both of these teams to see how good they actually are, or are not. In last year’s neutral site Super Bowl, I chose the Panthers as 4.5 point favorites. Even though they lost, they actually moved the ball better than the Broncos did in that game. The Broncos obviously had the splash plays that won the game, but they had more 3rd down failures (13) than first downs (11), moving the chains at a 48.00% rate, as opposed to 62.48% for the Panthers. The Broncos won the league’s ultimate prize, but if that game were played 100 times the Panthers likely would have won more often than the Broncos.

That theory will be put to the test a little bit more this week, with the Panthers now visiting the Broncos. Of course, these are not the same teams as last season. The Panthers lost #1 cornerback Josh Norman in free agency and need Cam Newton to continue playing at the level he played at last season, even though last season was easily the best of his career. He’ll have top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back, but the Panthers are unlikely to be as good as they were last season.

The same is very much true of the Broncos, who lost talented defensive starters Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan on defense and Evan Mathis on offense and did little to replace any of them. They’ll also be starting a 2015 7th round pick who has never thrown a pass in his career at quarterback in Trevor Siemian. Neither of their quarterbacks played well last season, but Siemian is as unqualified as week 1 starters come and could be even worse than both Osweiler and Manning. Both teams lost talent this off-season, but the Broncos had the worse off-season.

On top of that, the Panthers, despite how the season ended, played a lot better than the Broncos did overall last season. They won 10 games (including the post-season) by more than a touchdown last season, while the Broncos won just 4. In fact, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including a 3-0 record in overtime. If a few things had gone differently, they might not have even made the playoffs, let alone won the Super Bowl. In order to finish 12-4 again, the Broncos are likely going to have to be significantly better this season, which doesn’t seem likely considering all they did was lose talent this off-season.

The Panthers are unlikely to win 15 games again, but who does? They still figure to be one of the best teams in the league, while Denver could easily struggle to make the playoffs. The Panthers finished last season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Broncos finished 11th. That gap could easily be even wider this season. I don’t mind laying the field goal with the Panthers here on the road. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on this, especially since the Panthers are a heavily public backed road favorite in a nationally televised game against an opponent who is getting their Super Bowl rings, but the Panthers are the pick here.

Carolina Panthers 20 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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