2016 Week 4 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The Cowboys are pretty banged up coming into this one. Not only is top receiver Dez Bryant likely out in this one, they’re also expected to be without left tackle Tyron Smith and left guard La’El Collins. They are expected to get cornerback top Orlando Scandrick back from a 1 week absence on defense, but they remain without 3 projected defensive starters, DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Rolando McClain with suspension. Lawrence will return next week, but Gregory and McClain are serving long-term suspensions and their future with the team is in doubt.

Fortunately, they get a very easy opponent this week. The 49ers crushed a weak Rams team week 1, but have been dealt equally big losses in the past two weeks by both the Panthers and the Seahawks. Now they’re without top cornerback Jimmie Ward. The 49ers might not be the worst team in the league (despite two close wins, the Rams actually remain in dead last in rate of moving the chains differential), but they’re up there and the Cowboys only need to win by a field goal or more here to cover as 2.5 point favorites. The 49ers are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play Arizona on Thursday Night next week. Teams are 51-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, which the 49ers definitely will be next week.

This game is in San Francisco, but the Cowboys’ fanbase tends to travel well so going on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for them in recent years. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.61 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. Last week was their first road win since week 1 of 2015, but they won on the road in their last road game week 2 against Washington. I like their chances to go to 2-0 on the road here and I have no problem putting money on Dallas as long as this line stays on the right side of the field goal.

Dallas Cowboys 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

I’m glad I locked this one in at 7 earlier in the week, because the line has since shifted to 5 thanks to a season ending injury to 3-time Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt. Either way, I’d take the Titans for a big play. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and the difference between these two teams in terms of talent is not enough to warrant this high of a line, especially without Watt. The Titans only won 3 games last year, but that was largely due to injuries and close losses. They added a good amount of talent this off-season, especially through the draft, and are at least a capable opponent. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD) through 3 games and that’s right about where I’d rank them as a team, in the middle of the pack. This line underrates them.

The Texans are also a middle of the pack opponent at best, especially without their best defensive player. On the season, they rank 14th in RMCD. Their defense has been strong this season, but they’ve also scored just 3 offensive touchdowns all year and are coming off of a game in which they were shut out by the Patriots. They also remain without left tackle Duane Brown. This line should be much closer to 3 because these two teams are pretty evenly matched talent wise. I’m taking the points for a big play and expecting a close game and possibly a Tennessee straight up victory.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7

Confidence: High

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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. This game has one of them, as the Cardinals were 10.5 point favorites on the early line last week, but now are only 7.5 point favorites here at home. The reason for this is obvious, as the Cardinals lost by 15 in Buffalo last week. However, outside of a -4 turnover margin (including a return touchdown), they actually played pretty well in that game. They moved the chains at a 67.86% rate, while the Bills moved the chains at a 67.50% rate.

It’s important not to fixate on turnover margin because, even in a lopsided number like last week’s, it’s still only 4 plays out of a game which has over a hundred combined snaps on both sides of the ball. Turnover margin is also very inconsistent from week-to-week. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 4, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. They also cover against the spread about 53.4% of the time the following week. That’s likely because the public fixates on turnover margin and ends up underrating the team. The Cardinals’ aging offense doesn’t seem quite as good as it was last season, but their defense is just as good as they were last season and they’re still 5th in rate of moving the chains differential through 3 games, after finishing 1st in that metric last season.

There’s no way the Cardinals should only be 7.5 point favorites against a Rams team that is dead last in that metric, after finishing 30th in that metric last season. The Rams are above .500 this season, starting 2-1, but that’s very misleading. They were manhandled week 1 by a San Francisco team that’s been horrible in their other 2 games and, even in better performances week 2 and week 3, they still haven’t won the rate of moving the chains battle all season. Their opponents already have 30 more first downs than they do on the season, suggesting their early record is a major fluke. These two teams are very far apart talent wise.

The Cardinals are in somewhat of a tough spot here having to turn around and play in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but they go to San Francisco for that one, which isn’t tough at all. They figure to still be very focused for the Rams this week. Favorites are 50-73 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. However, teams are 46-35 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 6+ and favorites of 6+ are 86-49 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again. As long as this line is 9.5 or lower, this is worth putting money on.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Los Angeles Rams 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)

The Bills received bad news this week when Sammy Watkins had to be shut down for an extended period of time with pain in the foot he had surgically repaired this off-season. Now on injured reserve, Watkins is not eligible to return until week 12. It comes just as the Bills were getting healthier, with left tackle Cordy Glenn (2 game absence) and cornerback Ronald Darby (1 game absence) likely returning this week. Watkins is the best player on this offense, so he’s obviously a huge loss and he joins the best player on their defense, nose tackle Marcell Dareus, on the sidelines. Dareus is not eligible to return from suspension until next week. In addition, the Bills are also missing first round pick Shaq Lawson for an extended period of time and second round pick Reggie Ragland for the season, two players that were both supposed to start on this defense. They’re getting a couple guys back, but they’re far from what they could be at full strength.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are actually getting healthier. Everyone practiced on Friday and they could have 7 healthy inactives next week. Of course, this doesn’t include suspended players like Tom Brady and Rob Ninkovich or players on the Physically Unable to Perform list like Dion Lewis and Sebastian Vollmer. Brady is obviously the big missing piece, but Jimmy Garoppolo has performed well in his absence and he’s expected to start this week after missing last week with a shoulder injury. In about 6 quarters this season, he’s beaten a good Arizona team on the road and put up a big lead on Miami, before getting injured. He also has a healthy Rob Gronkowski at his disposal for the first time, while linebacker Dont’a Hightower is expected to return on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots defense shut the Texans out last week even without him. This is a deep and talented team on both sides of the ball and they’re healthier now than they’ve been all season.

I think they’ll also be very focused this week, with Tom Brady’s return and an easy game in Cleveland on deck. This team knows if they can get to 4-0 before Brady even plays they’ll be in tremendous shape and a weak Cleveland team doesn’t present a distraction. They’re expected to be 10.5 point road favorites in Cleveland next week and teams are 75-55 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites of 7 or more. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in a bad spot, coming off of an upset win at home against the Cardinals. Teams are 51-75 ATS since 2008 off of a win as home underdogs. Teams tend to get overconfident off of a win against a superior team that just happened to have a bad game on the road.

The Bills’ win last week was impressive, but very fluky, as both teams moved the chains at about the same rate. The Bills just won the turnover battle by 4, but that’s very tough to maintain. Teams that win the turnover battle by 4, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. The Patriots are also notoriously good in the turnover battle. I locked this line in earlier this week at -5, but it has since jumped to 7.5 with Garoppolo likely in and Watkins definitely out. I’d put money on it all the way up to 9.5 though. Belichick’s Patriots are dangerous off extra rest and will be very focused for their final game without Brady, with an easy trip to Cleveland on deck.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Bengals could easily be 0-3 right now, if not for a missed extra point by the Jets that could have sent the game to overtime. However, they’ve had a tough schedule so far. Both the Steelers and the Broncos (their two losses) are legitimate playoff teams, while the Jets are an at least capable opponent (when they’re not turning it over 8 times). They have a big chance to bounce back in a big way this week though, against a Dolphins team that figures to be very overmatched this week.

There are a few reasons they figure to be overmatched. For one, they’re missing a significant amount of key players. Talented center Mike Pouncey remains out, while backup center Anthony Steen will join him this week. Starting running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron are also out, though they’re not as important as Pouncey. On the defensive side, linebackers Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins are both questionable on a short week. On the other side, the Bengals get linebacker stud linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from his 3 game suspension.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in a tough spot as a visiting team on Thursday Night. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 16-35 ATS since 1989, including 9-21 ATS as underdogs of 4 or more. Thursday night games are tough enough for players, but they’re especially tough when you have to go on the road and face a superior opponent, unless that opponent is a divisional opponent that you play twice a year. The Dolphins are unfamiliar with the Bengals as an opponent and are significantly inferior talent wise.

They finished last season 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and are only 23rd in that metric so far in this young season. They would have lost to the banged up Browns if the Browns could hit a field goal. Meanwhile, the Bengals remain a legitimate playoff contender. If anything, this line is too low at 7. Either the public doesn’t realize how bad the Dolphins are or they’re mislead by the Bengals record, or both. Making matters worse for the Dolphins, they’re are coming off of an overtime game. Predictably, teams do not do well on a Thursday Night off of an overtime game, going 4-20 ATS since 1989, including 2-13 ATS on the road. This is my Pick of the Week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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