2016 Week 5 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Coming into the season, I had the Eagles atop my underrated teams list. I bet on them in each of their first 3 games, first as mere 3.5 point home favorites against the lowly Bears, then as 3.5 point road underdogs against the lowly Bears, then as 4 point home underdogs for the Pittsburgh Steelers week 3, prior to their week 4 bye. Not only did the Eagles cover all 3 games, but they covered them easily and actually have the league’s best point differential at +65 (despite only playing 3 games) and rank 1st in the league in first down percentage differential through their first 3 games. They might not finish the season as the league’s best team, but so far that’s what they’ve been.

Now, they no longer seem underrated. After their dominant performance against the Steelers, they come out of their bye as 3.5 point road favorites against a capable Detroit team. Now that they’re no longer underrated, I’m actually going to go the other way. The Eagles have had two weeks to hear about how great they are and the lines have adjusted, as this line was 1 in favor of the Lions last week on the early line (the Lions close upset loss in Chicago likely had something to do with that too). I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be the result of week-to-week overreactions. On top of that, teams like the Eagles who are coming off of a home upset victory tend not to cover the following week, likely because they’re overconfident and overvalued. Teams are 52-75 ATS in that spot since 2012. Despite that, the public is still all over the Eagles and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as well, as they always lose money in the long run.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because of how undermanned the Lions are on defense right now. They’re missing two of their three best defensive players with injury once again (linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah) and it has shown this season. Fortunately, their offense has remained strong and, even if this game isn’t close for most of the game, I like their chances of a late backdoor cover if they’re down by 10 late. As long as this line is higher than 3, I think it’s worth putting money on. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Eagles are a good team, but not as good as they’ve looked so far, so I like getting 3.5 with the Lions at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

The Dolphins are 3.5 point favorites here at home against the Titans, but have a much tougher game on deck, as they have to turn around and host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The early line has them as 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 51-95 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4, including 7-19 ATS as favorites, as tough upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction. Meanwhile, the Titans turn around and host the Browns in arguably the easiest game of their season, a game in which they’re expected to be 5.5 point favorites. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Titans are also in their second of two road games, which helps. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

As long as this line is 3.5, this is my Pick of the Week. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games by exactly 3 points. Because of the frequency of 3-point games, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Titans, which I don’t agree with. This line should be 3 at the most, before you even take into account all of the situational factors involved in this game and the fact that the Dolphins have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years (5-12 ATS at home since 2014, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites). I actually have the Titans as a little bit better than the Dolphins, who could easily be 0-4 right now if not for 3 missed field goals in regulation by the Browns week 3. The Titans are a big play and the money line at +150 isn’t a bad idea either, since this game seems like at least a toss up. Worst case scenario, it’s tough to see the Dolphins winning by more than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized, Vikings

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

The offense is the side of the ball with the most need for improvement, as they rank 30th in offensive first down percentage. Both with and without Adrian Peterson, they’ve struggled to run the ball, largely as a result of an offensive line that has been very shaky and is missing both week 1 starting offensive tackles with injury, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. They’re not in a good spot to improve offensively this week, as Houston enters with the 2nd best defense in the league in terms of first down percentage allowed. The Texans haven’t faced a tough schedule so far and are not the same unit without JJ Watt, but the Vikings are expected to be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. Without him, the Vikings are very weak at the wide receiver position. There’s just not a lot of talent around Sam Bradford on this offense right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, get left tackle Duane Brown back from injury after the talented blindside protector missed the first 4 games of the season with a quad injury. He’ll be a boost to an offense that has ranked 31st in offensive first down percentage thus far this season, though the Vikings’ defense is a very tough matchup. Even without defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who is injured, the Vikings rank 6th in first down percentage allowed, despite a pair of early games against the Packers and Panthers.

Both teams have weak offenses and strong defenses and they’re much more even than this line suggests. Especially in what figures to be a low scoring affair, getting 7 points is a dream. I wouldn’t put this line any higher than 4. The Texans are better than the Giants, against whom the Vikings were just 5 point favorites last week with a healthy Stefon DIggs. The one thing that prevents this from being my Pick of the Week is the fact that the Vikings are going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. However, usually big home favorites are significantly superior to their opponents, which is not the case in this game, as the Vikings do not deserve to be touchdown favorites. It’s a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

After last week’s home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the perception of the Cardinals right now is that the sky is falling for them. However, they’re a couple plays away from being 3-1, as two of their losses came by a combined 6 points. Their one win, meanwhile, came by 33 points. They still have a +12 point differential and rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. Losing quarterback Carson Palmer with a concussion is a big loss, but their defense has been their best unit this season (4th in first down percentage allowed), while the offense has been more pedestrian (11th in first down percentage), largely as a result of some early season struggles by Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton is a capable backup at best and a significant downgrade, but the Cardinals still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on offense, both at the skill positions and on the offensive line.

The 49ers also come in banged up, losing promising rookie DeForest Buckner (the 7th overall pick) for at least this week and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman for the year. They join top cornerback Jimmie Ward on the sideline. He’ll miss his 2nd straight game. Those might be their three best defensive players. They do get top pass rusher Aaron Lynch back from a 4-game suspension, but he doesn’t offset the loss of the other guys. The 49ers already have one of the worst offenses in football and now might have one of the worst defenses in football, after it showed promise to start the season. Live will be as easy as possible for Stanton in his spot start, as his offensive supporting cast is far more talented than San Francisco’s defense. It’s a short week, which is tough, but he’s a veteran guy with experience in the system. And in the fact that the Cardinals’ defense figures to shut down Blaine Gabbert and company on a short week and the Cardinals figure to get back in the win column this week.

However, we’re not getting nearly as good of a line as I thought we would. The early line was 6 last week and I figured it would move significantly, with the Cardinals losing at home and Palmer getting knocked out, but it’s still at 3.5. That’s not a small line movement, but 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I’d be worried about the backdoor cover with Arizona, even in a low scoring game. The 49ers are also in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 78-53 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Cardinals are the pick, but I don’t recommend putting money on it.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]