2016 Week 6 NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Ordinarily, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The early line for this game had the Titans as 5.5 point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 7 this week. However, that’s not enough to scare me off of Tennessee. I’ve had the Titans on my underrated list since the start of the season and they are still better than this line suggests. Despite their 2-3 record, they rank 5th in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +18 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 6 touchdowns all season on 51 drives.

The Browns might have played a little bit tougher of a schedule than the Browns, but they’re a much inferior team. They have one of the league’s weakest rosters, especially with all of the players that are out with injury, and they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Browns were 10 point underdogs in Miami and 8 point underdogs in Washington, so it doesn’t make any sense that they’re just 7 point underdogs in Tennessee against the Titans, who are better than both of those teams. Even with the line movement, this line is too low.

Making matters worse for the Browns, they have another tough game on deck, as they travel to Cincinnati to play the division rival Bengals. Underdogs of 6+ are 46-74 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams play well enough to keep it close against a superior team when they have another significantly superior opponent on deck. Betting on bad teams like the Browns is not always a bad idea, but big underdogs tend to only cover when they don’t have another equally tough or tougher opponent on deck. The early line actually has the Browns as 10.5 point underdogs in Cincinnati (even though the Titans and Bengals are actually comparably good teams). Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. It’s possibly that line shifts under 10 in the next week, but, either way, it’s a tough spot for the Browns against an underrated Tennessee team.

Tennessee Titans 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -7

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)

This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank 8th in the first down percentage differential. They’re arguably healthy now than they were a few weeks ago, with the return of middle linebacker Danny Trevathan from injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are healthier than they’ve been all season. Jared Odrick, Prince Amukamara, Brandon Linder, and Kelvin Beachum all missed time earlier in the year, but, coming out of their bye, they are only missing mediocre guard Luke Joeckel. However, through 4 games, they are 27th in first down percentage differential.

Despite that, the Bears are only favored by 1.5 points here at home, suggesting the oddsmakers see the Jaguars as the superior team. That hasn’t been true thus far, as they’ve had much different numbers against fairly comparable schedules. The Jaguars have played the Packers, Chargers, Ravens, and Colts, while the Bears have faced the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Lions, and Colts. All of that being said, the reason I can’t be confident in Chicago is because they have easily their biggest game of the season on deck next week, which could cause them to overlook an unfamiliar, underwhelming opponent.

The Bears travel to Green Bay, where they are expected to be 10.5 point underdogs against the Packers, according to the early line. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs and 19-33 ATS as favorites before being 10+ point underdogs since 2008. On top of that, favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Bears are the pick and could be worth putting money on (I may decide to later), but I’m worried about the possibility of the Bears showing up flat with a huge game on deck and the Jaguars showing up and playing their best football of the season, healthy coming out of the bye.

Update: I’ve decided to bump this up to a medium confidence play. As long as the line is under a field goal, the Bears have a good chance to cover.

Chicago Bears 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This game has one, as the Steelers were 4.5 point road favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 8. It makes some sense why the line would move significantly, as the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans last week, while the Steelers got their second straight big victory, beating the Jets 31-13. However, the line movement is still way too much and we’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins at 8 as a result. Despite that, the public is still all over the Steelers. I also love going against the public when it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run.

The Steelers’ last two wins came by large margins, but both were at home. Now they’re on the road, where it’s much tougher to come away with big wins. The Steelers especially have had trouble on the road against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, as they are just 9-21 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin arrived in 2007. In their last road game, they lost 34-3 in Philadelphia as 4 point road favorites. The Dolphins are not nearly as good as the Eagles, but they’re still good enough to keep it close against a Pittsburgh team that could overlook them, especially with a huge game against the Patriots next week. That game could easily be a major distraction.

The Steelers also come into this game pretty banged up, more banged up than most realize. They’ll be without defensive end Cameron Heyward, arguably their best defensive player, for the first time this season, while right tackle Marcus Gilbert and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier remain out with injuries. Also out is wide receiver Markus Wheaton, while fellow wide receiver is questionable with a hand laceration and could be limited even if he goes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are getting healthier, as their top-3 offensive lineman (Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil, and Mike Pouncey) are all healthy at the same time for the first time all year. Having their entire offensive line back should help this offense immensely and gives them a good chance to have a bounce back offensive performance, especially with Pittsburgh missing Heyward. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +8

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)

This is easily the most confusing line of the week. I’ve had the Raiders on my underrated list since the start of the season and I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL, even if they haven’t had a convincing victory over anyone through 5 weeks. The Raiders have started 4-1 though, so I figured they’d still be at least field goal favorites here at home against a Chiefs team that’s average at best without top pass rusher Justin Houston, who remains out with a knee injury. Instead, the Raiders are inexplicably 2 point home underdogs. There’s a significant talent gap between these two teams and I would have had the line at least 4 in favor of the Raiders, so we’re getting a great value with the Raiders here for some reason.

The Raiders don’t even have a tough upcoming game that could be a distraction. Next week, they travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that’s currently 1-3. In fact, the Raiders are expected to be road favorites in Jacksonville next week, even as much as the oddsmakers seem to underestimate them. Home underdogs are 77-45 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The early line only has the Raiders as 2.5 point road favorites next week, but that could easily jump to 4 if the Raiders have a strong showing here, which I expect them to do. This is my Pick of the Week. The money line is also a great value at +115.

Oakland Raiders 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Oakland +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are 1-4 despite a +10 point differential and a +2.04% first down percentage differential (11th in the NFL), as all 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer, while their lone win came by 24 points week 2 against the Jaguars.

The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-1 or even 5-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries, while cornerback Brandon Flowers is expected to miss his 3rd straight game with a concussion. The Chargers’ record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games this season than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury.

The Broncos are a much more talented team and were 4-0 going into last week, prior to a disappointing 23-16 home loss last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite that loss, they actually still rank 1st in the NFL in first down percentage differential at 5.98%. Their defense played well against the Falcons all things considered, as the Falcons rank #1 in the NFL in first down percentage, but had just an average offensive performance against the Broncos. On the season, the Broncos are 7th in the NFL in first down percentage allowed, despite facing some tough offenses thus far (Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta).

The offense was the problem for them, as they struggled to move the ball all day, despite being at home and facing a mediocre at best Atlanta defense. The Broncos still rank 9th in the NFL in first down percentage though and get quarterback Trevor Siemian back from injury this week, after he missed last week’s start with an injured shoulder. In Siemian’s absence, first round rookie Paxton Lynch looked overmatched and not nearly ready to be an NFL quarterback. Lynch might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but Siemian has been a more than serviceable quarterback through the early part of the season. The underwhelming offensive performance last week is cause for concern, especially considering how stagnant their offense was for most of last season, but Siemian is better than either of the quarterbacks they had last season and the offensive line and running game have been better as well.

More concerning is the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak will miss this game with migraine issues. It’s unclear how the team will handle his absence, which makes the Broncos a much riskier bet. The health of Siemian’s shoulder just a week and a half after the injury is also a risk. Talent wise, the Broncos should be able to win this game pretty easily, as the Chargers have no homefield advantage (6-12 ATS at home since 2014), but I wouldn’t bet on them unless I could get lower than 3, which seems unlikely. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I can’t be confident in Denver at 3.5.

Denver Broncos 23 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low

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