2016 Week 9 NFL Picks

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-4) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)

The Seahawks are 4-2-1, but rank just 14th in first down percentage differential. Their defense has been great, as they’ve allowed the 5th lowest first down percentage against, but their offense has been a major problem, as they rank just 29th in first down percentage. This is despite the fact that they’ve played arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, as they rank dead last in opponent’s strength of schedule thus far this season. Their only two wins by more than 2 points came against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bills are 4-4 and far from a pushover, entering 17th in first down percentage differential; they’re an obvious step up from the 49ers and Jets.

The Bills also enter this game much healthier than the Seahawks. The Bills are still missing talented wide receiver Sammy Watkins with a long-term injury and will be without talented defensive tackle Marcell Dareus this week, after he reinjured himself in his season debut last week, but neither of those guys have been on the field much at all this season, so the Bills have largely been playing without them thus far. They also get back starting running back LeSean McCoy, after he missed one game and was limited in another with a hamstring pull.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are missing two of their best defensive players again, as defensive end Michael Bennett and safety Kam Chancellor remain out after missing last week’s loss in New Orleans. Their defense was far from as good as normal last week without those two. Given how bad their offense has been this season, the Seahawks can’t afford to be without those two key players on defense. Given their injury situation, this line is way too high at 7. The Seahawks are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and go to New England next week, just 6 days after this relatively easier Monday Night Football matchup. The early line has them as 7.5 point underdogs in New England and teams are just 49-87 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs since 2002. The Bills are my Pick of the Week at 7 and I like them even if this line moves down to 6 or 6.5.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

The Jaguars have had a disappointing 2016 season. A perennial cellar dweller in recent years, the Jaguars entered the off-season with a lot of young talent and cap space to spend to add to their young talent, which they did with free agent additions like Malik Jackson, Chris Ivory, Kelvin Beachum, Prince Amukamara, and Tashaun Gipson. After a strong draft, many had them as a sleeper playoff team, but they’ve started the season 2-5 and look well on their way to another lost season in their 4th season under head coach Gus Bradley. Their offense has definitely been their most disappointing unit, as they’ve failed to move the ball outside of garbage time for most of the season, but this line is 7.5 so the Jaguars’ garbage time “prowess” could really help here. If the Jaguars are down by two scores late, I still like my chances of getting a cover with a late backdoor Jacksonville touchdown.

I don’t think it’ll even get to that point though. I’m not convinced the Jaguars are completely done; they’re not one of the worst rosters in the league and they’re relatively healthy right now compared to the rest of the league. They’ve had a long week off after Thursday Night Football and are installing a new offensive coordinator following the dismissal of Greg Olson, which could provide a spark for an offense that has underperformed it’s talent in competitive game situations this season.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are without starting quarterback Alex Smith and their top two running backs Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles, leaving them with a backfield of Nick Foles and Charcandrick West. Both of those players have some starting experience, but this isn’t a great offense to begin with so it’s tough to ask them to cover a 7.5 point line, especially considering 51.3% of games have been decided by a touchdown or less this season (compared to 45.8% from 2006-2015). That’s because the NFL is a lot of teams that aren’t far from average this season. This line is way too high.

The Jaguars are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. I like Jacksonville a lot at 7.5 or higher.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7.5

Confidence: High

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

This line was 2 in favor of the visiting Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since moved all the way up to 4.5. Considering it moved through the key numbers of 3 and 4, that’s a pretty significant line movement; close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movement because it tends to be the result of overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case it makes perfect sense. The Buccaneers went into overtime last week at home against the Raiders and now have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game on a short week. That historically has not gone well, as teams have covered just 4 times on Thursday Night off of an overtime game in 25 instances, since 1989. They figure to be exhausted in this one.

That being said, I couldn’t be confident in the Falcons at all, for a number of reasons. The first and most obvious one is how big this line is. The Falcons are a solid team, but the Buccaneers aren’t bad either and, even on a short week off of an overtime game, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Falcons at 4.5. This line seems to take into account that the Buccaneers will be exhausted. The Falcons are also in a tough spot of their own, as they have a tough game in Philadelphia on deck, while the Buccaneers stay at home and host the lowly Bears next week. Favorites are just 58-89 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Home underdogs like the Buccaneers also tend to do well off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 74-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Falcons, but for a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -4.5

Confidence: None

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