2017 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) at Denver Broncos (3-6)

The Broncos have lost 5 straight games by double digits and have lost their last 2 games by a combined 53 points, but teams tend to bounce back pretty well after back-to-back blowout losses. Teams are 45-31 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after two straight big losses. The schedule also gets a little easier for the Broncos, with the Bengals coming to town, following games against the Chiefs, Eagles, and Patriots.

Not only has the Broncos’ schedule been tough, but they have done very poorly with turnover margin. Through 9 games, they rank last in the NFL in turnover margin at -14, but they should be better going forward, given how inconsistent turnover margins are on a week-to-week basis. Despite a 3-6 record and a tough schedule, they rank 21st in first down rate differential. However, we aren’t getting much line value with the Broncos as 2.5 point home favorites because, like the Broncos, the Bengals are also underrated as a result of a poor turnover margin. They are -9 in turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL, but they rank 17th in first down rate differential. They also have a significant edge at quarterback and a comparable defense to the Broncos.

The Bengals are also in a good spot as they only have an easy game against the Browns up next, meaning they should be focused. The Broncos, meanwhile, have to travel to Oakland after this one and could get caught looking forward a little bit. Underdogs are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, which the Broncos will be next week in Oakland. That trend might not apply to the Broncos this week because they’ve been embarrassed in back-to-back weeks, but I can’t be confident at all in the Broncos this week as 2.5 point home favorites. They could win by a field goal or more, but Cincinnati is a slightly superior team who could win outright. This is exactly where I have this line and there are offsetting trends, so this is a really tough one.

Denver Broncos 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -2.5

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)

The Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football last week to improve to 6-3, but their season could be in serious trouble. In cruel irony, the Seahawks, always a vocal opponent of Thursday Night Football for safety reasons, lost stud cornerback Richard Sherman for the season with an achilles tear and stud safety Kam Chancellor for the season with a neck injury in that win over the Cardinals. They’ve already lost talented defensive end Cliff Avril for the season with a neck injury, so this defense is not nearly what it used to be.

On top of that, the Seahawks will also be without talented left tackle Duane Brown, who also went down against Arizona, a big blow to an offensive line with serious problems at other positions. Even before the injury, the Seahawks only ranked 18th in first down rate differential. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 8th, and have a significant talent edge on paper right now too, even more so than when the Falcons blew out the Seahawks 36-20 in Atlanta last season in the post-season. The Falcons are not as well coached this season, especially on offense, but they still have largely the same personnel.

This one is in Seattle though, which hurts the Falcons’ chances of winning, as does the fact that this is a night game. West coast teams cover about two thirds of the time in night games against East coast teams. In the second half of this game, the Seahawks’ internal clock will be at about 7 PM, while the Falcons will be at 10 PM, which puts them at a significant disadvantage. The Seahawks are also in a big statement game spot given all of their injuries and they tend to be a great second half of the season team (35-14 ATS in regular season games 9-16 in the Pete Carroll era). With only an easy game against the 49ers on deck, the Seahawks have no upcoming distractions and could play one of their best games of the season. I’m still taking the Falcons, but this is a no confidence pick at +3. This seems like a field goal Seattle win.

Update: This line has moved significantly since Saturday because of Kam Chancellor being officially ruled out and heavy public action on the Falcons. The Seahawks are now underdogs of 1.5 points. Given that I still see this as a field goal game, Seattle is now a medium confidence pick. They are 7-2-1 ATS in regular season home primetime games in Russell Wilson’s career and get the added benefit of playing a time that’s flown across the country. They’re also in a great spot with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (7-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-5) in Mexico City

The Raiders are technically the home team in this International Series game in Mexico City, but the Patriots might be the one with the slight homefield advantage. The Patriots have won 12 straight games away from Gillette Stadium, with an average margin of victory of 12.83 points per game and a 8-2-2 ATS record in those 12 games. Over the same time period, the Patriots have 4 home losses and have an average point differential of 9.07 points per game in 15 home games. This makes a lot of sense considering how many fans the Patriots have around the country. Even in Denver last week, Patriots fans could be heard in the crowd.

The Patriots have never played in Mexico City, but they have had a lot of success in their first 2 international games, beating the Buccaneers by a score of 35-7 in London in 2009 and beating the Rams by a score of 45-7 in London in 2012. Much like American fans with Europe soccer teams, international NFL fans tend to root for the most successful franchises. That might be why favorites of 4+ are 12-1 ATS all-time in neutral site games. The Raiders have a geographical advantage and they played in Mexico City last year, but there should still be a lot of Patriots fans in attendance. The Patriots also just played in high altitude in Denver last week, so they’ll be used to it in Mexico City.

That being said, we’re getting no line value with the Patriots as 7 point favorites. The Patriots still rank 31st in first down rate allowed and have serious trouble getting off the field without forcing a takeaway. They could allow the Raiders to hang around and get a backdoor cover in a shootout. The Patriots are also banged up offensively, missing starting right tackle Marcus Cannon, starting center David Andrews, and #2 wide receiver Chris Hogan. If this line drops below 7, I may reconsider, but, for now, this is a low confidence pick.

New England Patriots 31 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) at New York Giants (1-8)

The Giants hit rock bottom last week, falling to 1-8 in a double digit loss to a previously winless 49ers team. The Giants have had injuries, but they don’t seem to be trying hard either. This is a very veteran team with very little good young talent and they don’t seem to want to try hard for head coach Ben McAdoo in a lost season. It’s possible they put in more effort this week for the Kansas City Chiefs, a much tougher opponent, but it’s also possible they mail it in if they go down by multiple scores early, especially since they have to go to Washington on a short week next week. They are currently 8.5 point underdogs on the early line for that Thanksgiving game.

Underdogs of 6+ are 35-54 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams to keep up with superior teams if they have another tough game on deck. That’s especially true if the superior opponent doesn’t have a tough game on deck, which the Chiefs don’t, with the Bills coming to town next week. The early line has the Chiefs as 7.5 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again. Combining trends, favorites of 6+ are 35-9 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again when their opponent will be 6+ point underdogs again the following week.

The Chiefs are also coming out of a bye and big road favorites tend to cover after a bye. Road favorites of 3.5+ are are 42-17 ATS since 1989 off of a regular season bye when their opponent is not coming off of a bye. The Giants have already lost at home by big margins twice this season against good teams coming out of their bye, as the Seahawks won 24-7 and the Rams won 51-17. The Chiefs could easily do that as well, but we aren’t getting any line value with them at -10. The Chiefs rank dead last in first down rate allowed this season, as they’ve been unable to get off the field defensively without forcing turnovers. They could allow the Giants to hang around in garbage time if the Giants actually put in effort for the full 60 minutes. If this line drops under 10, I may reconsider, but this is a low confidence pick for now. The Chiefs are also the smart survivor pick this week if you have not used them yet.

Update: -9.5 has popped up in a few places Sunday morning, despite wide receiver Sterling Shepard and cornerback Eli Apple being unexpectedly inactive. Grab -9.5 if you can get it.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New York Giants 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

I am kicking myself for not taking Tampa Bay +3 when it briefly showed up at the beginning of the week. A line of -3 in favor of the hometown Dolphins suggests these two teams are about even, which is not true. The Dolphins, despite a 4-5 record, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their 4 wins have come by a combined 14 points, while their 5 losses have come by a combined 101 points, giving them a point differential of -87 on the season. That’s the 4th worst point differential in the NFL. They also rank 3rd worst in first down rate differential.

The Buccaneers are not a great team, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but they’re significantly better than the Dolphins. They rank 19th in first down rate differential on the season, as 3 of their 6 losses have come by 5 points or fewer. Obviously losing Jameis Winston hurts them, but, given the way he was playing before he went down, it doesn’t hurt them that much. Fitzpatrick is definitely not a great starting option, but he’s experienced and he’s overall an above average backup.

Fitzpatrick also has a fair amount of talent around him on offense, with Mike Evans returning from suspension. Third round rookie Chris Godwin played well in his absence and now the Buccaneers go 4 deep at wide receiver, in addition to having a talented tight end duo. Defensively, they’ve played better in recent weeks as they’ve gotten healthier in the back 7. Outside linebacker Lavonte David, cornerback Brent Grimes, and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander missed 2 games, 3 games, and 4 games respectively early in the season, which hurt this defense.

Unfortunately, this line has shifted from 3 all the way to a pick ‘em. That’s exactly where I have this line, so we’ve lost all line value with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is still the pick for pick ‘em purposes because they have a tough game against the Patriots on deck, in which they are 14 point underdogs on the early line. Teams are 48-78 ATS since 2002 before being 10+ point underdogs. It’s definitely a possibility that the Dolphins don’t give their best effort for a 3-6 non-conference opponent with a huge divisional game on deck. I just don’t have a ton of interest in betting on Fitzpatrick on the road without getting field goal protection.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Miami Dolphins 15

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay PK

Confidence: Low

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

The Saints emphatically defeated the Bills in Buffalo last week, winning by the final score of 47-10 and winning the first down rate battle by 27.61%. That’s the best single game margin in the NFL this season. They rank 2nd in first down rate differential on the season and 3rd in my roster rankings. One of the best teams in the league, the Saints are a true Super Bowl contender and are a strong candidate to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. However, this could easily be a trap game for the Saints, because, after this game, they head to Los Angeles to take on another 7-2 NFC team, the Rams, a game in which the Saints will likely be underdogs.

The Redskins, meanwhile, get the Giants in Washington next on their schedule, a game in which they should be significant favorites (-8.5 on the early line). Underdogs are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 63-40 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 7 or more the following week. That being said, we aren’t getting any line value with the Redskins as 9 point underdogs. I have these two teams about 7.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so the Saints should be favored by at least 10, if not 10.5. If this line moves to 10 before gametime, I will revisit this pick, but for now this is a low confidence pick.

Update: +10 has popped up in some places Sunday morning. Grab it if you can.

New Orleans Saints 30 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-6)

When this line opened at Chargers -4.5, I was interested in the Bills. The Bills are obviously coming off of a horrendous home loss to the New Orleans Saints, losing 47-10, but teams tend to bounce back pretty well after blowout losses, going 54-30 ATS since 2002 after losing by 35+ points. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense as teams to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed following a blowout loss. I typically love betting against significant week-to-week line movements and blowout loss almost always trigger significant line movement.

This line shifted from 3 on the early line last week as a result of the Bills’ blowout loss, a pretty significant shift considering 20% of games are decided by 3-4 points. The Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles and have to play again in 4 days in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 61-95 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, as it’s understandably tough to be focused for an inferior opponent with another game right around the corner. The Bills seemed like possibly a smart pick.

However, then the Bills benched Tyrod Taylor mid-week for 5th round rookie Nathan Peterman. That shifted the line by another 1.5 points as the Chargers are now 6 point home favorites, but it should have shifted it a lot more. Taylor was far from the problem with this offense and has played pretty well over the past 3 seasons as the starter, despite underwhelming receiving options. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ 9th, 11th, and 10th ranked quarterback over the past 3 seasons and deserves to go somewhere he can start this off-season.

Peterman, meanwhile, is a completely unknown commodity, but likely fell to the 5th round in April for legitimate reason. The history of quarterbacks drafted in the 5th round or later who go on to have success in the NFL is very limited and Peterman seems to lack the requisite arm strength to play quarterback in the NFL. Benching Taylor should have triggered a line movement of at least 4 points. I have this line calculated at -9 in favor of the Chargers with Peterman at quarterback for the Bills.

That might seem high, but even with Taylor under center, the Bills ranked 31st in first down rate differential. They are 5-4, but they have a -12 point differential, despite leading the league with a +11 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis, so the Bills they won’t be able to rely on winning the turnover battle every week. After starting the season +14, they are -3 in the past two games, which have been a double digit loss to the Jets and a blowout loss to the Saints. They rank 29th in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. Their offense couldn’t move the ball despite solid quarterback play and their defense can’t get off the field if they don’t get a takeaway. Now with Peterman under center, this is one of the worst teams in the league. They rank 26th in my roster rankings.

The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 9th in my roster rankings and they rank 9th in first down rate differential as well, despite their 3-6 record. Four of their 6 losses have come by 3 points or less, including two games in which they missed makeable field goals. That’s pretty impressive considering their lack of homefield advantage. With an actual homefield advantage and better luck in close games, they could easily be 6-3 right now. With that in mind, I’m taking the Chargers here, but I can’t recommend betting any money on them because they aren’t a good home team and they’re in a terrible spot, against a team that just got blown out with another game in 4 days. They should be the right pick for pick ‘em purposes though, given the talent disparity between these two teams.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -6

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (5-4) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Lions beat the Browns 38-24 in Detroit last week, but the game was a lot closer than the final score suggested. The Browns led 24-17 in the 3rd quarter, despite allowing a return touchdown earlier in the game and getting no points out of a goal line opportunity at the end of the half. The Browns then had another goal line opportunity in the 4th quarter and threw an interception. The Lions won the first down rate battle, but only by 3.15%. On the season, they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.05%, similar to last season, when they were -1.90%.

Despite being 5-4 this season and 9-7 last season, they aren’t that good of a team. Last season, they won 8 of 9 games by a touchdown or less and didn’t beat a single playoff team. This season, their margin of victory has been better, but that’s largely because they have a +7 turnover margin, tied for 3rd in the league. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year and week-to-week basis (the Lions were just -1 last season), so the Lions probably won’t be able to count on that going forward. Their strength of victory is also once again pretty unimpressive, as 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Cardinals, Giants, Packers, and Browns.

The Bears, meanwhile, have been underrated for most of the season (5-2-1 ATS through the first 8 games), until last week when they were strangely 6 point home favorites against the Packers. The Bears lost outright, though the loss came by 7 points and the game could have been a lot different had they not fumbled at the goal line in the 2nd quarter. Now the Bears are back to being a little underrated, as they are field goal home underdogs against the Lions this week.

The Bears are 3-0-1 ATS this season as home underdogs, with outright wins against the Steelers and Panthers, so they should be able to give the Lions a good game as well. Even if they end up losing, the field goal gives us enough cushion to be confident in the Bears, as close to 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less. I have this line calculated at even, despite the Bears likely missing middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, so we’re getting good line value with Chicago +3.

The Bears are in a tough spot with the Eagles on deck, as teams are 48-78 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, which the Bears will likely be in Philadelphia. Tough upcoming games tend to present a distraction for teams, though the Bears are in a must win spot at 3-6 so I’d be surprised if they didn’t give a good effort. The Lions, on the other hand, have a much tougher and more important game against the Vikings on deck and it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 61-95 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, as it’s understandably tough to be focused for an inferior opponent with another game right around the corner. I like the Bears a good amount this week as long as we get the full field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-4)

The Cowboys have had an up and down season. They started the season 2-3, with losses against the Broncos, Rams, and Packers, but came out of the bye with 3 wins by double digits, including a convincing home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, and everything looked right again for this team. However, since then, they’ve lost Ezekiel Elliott for 6 games with a suspension, left tackle Tyron Smith indefinitely with a groin injury, and linebacker Sean Lee indefinitely with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys’ pass protection was embarrassed against the Falcons without Smith, while their defense took a huge step back after Lee left the game.

All three of those players will miss this game, which is a huge loss because they are three of their best players. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier either, with the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles next on the schedule. The game is at home in Cowboy Stadium, but the Cowboys have such a national fanbase that they have barely had any homefield advantage in recent years. They are 33-28 on the road since 2010 (35-26 ATS), with a scoring differential of -0.07 per game, as opposed to 31-31 at home (22-40 ATS), with a scoring differential of +1.74 per game. Homefield advantage hasn’t even counted for a full point for them over the past 7 seasons.

The Eagles are relatively healthy and in a great spot coming out of the bye, as road favorites of 3.5+ are 42-17 ATS since 1989 off of a regular season bye when their opponent is not coming off of a bye. Teams are 5-1 ATS in that spot this season, but I haven’t bet on any of those 6 because I didn’t like the line value. This week, we’re getting great line value with the Eagles as 4.5 point road favorites. Given the Cowboys’ lack of homefield advantage and the Eagles considerable talent advantage, I have this line calculated at 7.5 in favor of Philadelphia.

This line was 3.5 earlier in the week, but I didn’t lock it in because I thought it might go to 3. It hasn’t, rising to 4.5, 5, and in some places 5.5. Not locking it in doesn’t hurt me too much because only 5% of games are decided by 4 points and only 3% are decided by 5 points and it was worth the risk given that about 15% percent of games are decided by 3 points. The line movement is as a result of heavy public action on the Eagles and no sharp action on the Cowboys. It may keep rising as high as 6 or 6.5, so lock this one in as soon as possible. It seems like the oddsmakers just posted a bad with this one. This is my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

Typically, in non-divisional Thursday games like this one, the smart move is to pick the better team if they are at home. Non-divisional home favorites of 4+ are 22-11 ATS on Thursday Night Football all-time. It’s understandably very tough to face a superior opponent on the road on a short week, especially if they are an unfamiliar non-divisional opponent. The Steelers are the superior team here, but the problem is this line is pretty high at 7. I have these teams about 3 points apart. Even if we give the Steelers 4 points for homefield advantage on a short week, that doesn’t leave us any line value. Given that, I’m going to take the points for a no confidence pick. If this line moves to 6.5 before game time, I’ll switch to Pittsburgh. That’s how close this one is for me.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

CHI +3 vs. DET

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7

Confidence: None