2017 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

The Buccaneers have been better than their 4-9 record suggests, as they enter this game 15th in first down rate differential at 0.59%, with 17 more first downs gained than allowed this season. They are just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less and could easily be 6-7 had a couple things gone their way. Their losses to the Patriots, Packers, and Lions (by a combined 14 points) all came in games in which they won the first down battle, but came up just short on the scoreboard.

However, the Buccaneers also enter this game incredibly banged up. Jameis Winston returned at quarterback a few weeks ago, but hasn’t looked quite right with an injury to his throwing shoulder. He is also missing his top-2 offensive linemen, center Ali Marpet and right tackle Demar Dotson, who are out for the season. On defense, the Buccaneers are missing arguably their best two players, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and outside linebacker Lavonte David, as well as defensive end Noah Spence and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, who have been out for weeks.

This line has moved from Atlanta -3.5 on the early line to -6 this week, but, with McCoy and David both going down, I think that’s fair. The Falcons have a top-5 roster on paper and are relatively healthy and finally playing more like they did last season. I can’t be confident in the Falcons though. We’ve seen the Steelers and Patriots both have flat games on Monday Night Football in tough situations against divisional opponents in the past two weeks and we could see something similar this week, as this game is sandwiched between a pair of games against the division leading Saints on Atlanta’s schedule. The Falcons are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes as long as this line is less than 7.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -6

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (0-13)

Last week, I selected the Browns as 3.5 point home underdogs against the Hundley and I picked them to win straight up. They led by 14 going into the 4th quarter and had a 90% chance of winning with just a few minutes left in the game, but the Packers came back, pushed it to overtime, and then scored a touchdown in overtime when they just needed a field goal, meaning they didn’t just win, but they also covered. I also picked Indianapolis +3.5 in Buffalo, so I lost against the spread in two games where I had a 3.5 point underdog in overtime. Making matters worse, I had the Browns money line in a 50:1 parlay with the money line of the Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, and 49ers, who all won.

This week, I am a lot less confident in the Browns, and not just because of what happened last week. The Browns have been competitive in more games than you’d think this season, despite their record, and could easily cover the 7 here. However, the Ravens have had a lot of success against low level teams this season. They’ve beaten the Bengals, the Browns, the EJ Manuel led Raiders, the Matt Moore led Dolphins, the Brett Hundley led Packers, and the Tom Savage led Packers by a combined 121 points, with all 6 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Their defense isn’t as good since they lost top cornerback Jimmy Smith, but their offense has been a lot better in recent weeks thanks to the emergence of lead back Alex Collins

The Ravens are also in a great spot because they have another easy game on deck, as they host the lowly Colts next week. Favorites of 6 or more are 70-42 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6 or more again, as teams tend to take care of business against inferior teams when they don’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better with receivers Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back and who have been competitive in most of their recent games, but I can’t take Cleveland with any confidence this week.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (6-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

The Bills pulled out an overtime victory at home against the Colts last week 13-7 with Nate Peterman under center, a game they could have easily lost on several occasions. As a result, the Bills are now 7-6 and turn the team back to starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who returns from a one-game absence with a knee injury. The Bills are not nearly as good as their record though. They rank 23rd in point differential at -50 and 31st in first down rate differential at -6.44%.

The Dolphins have had their share of issues this season, but they’ve been better in recent weeks. People thought they were crazy for trading away Jay Ajayi at the trade deadline, but new starter Kenyan Drake has proven to be a much better fit in this offense and has given this offense a new dimension in recent weeks, as he’s taken over as the feature back with backup Damien Williams out. They’ve also been better defensively since getting safety TJ McDonald back from suspension. Last week’s win at home over the Patriots may not have been a complete fluke, especially since the Dolphins easily beat a capable Broncos team the week before.

Last week’s win puts the Dolphins in a terrible spot, as teams tend to be flat off of wins as home underdogs. Teams cover at a mere 45% rate off of a home upset win. However, the Bills aren’t in a great spot either, as they have to face New England next week in Foxboro, a game in which they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 50-86 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as it’s understandably tough to play your best when you have a really tough game on deck.

On top of that, divisional home favorites are just 25-62 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. The Dolphins are probably the better team and definitely in the better spot, so I like getting more than a field goal with them. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so getting Miami +3.5 gives us some significant cushion if the Dolphins can’t pull the upset. The Dolphins are worth a small bet if you can get 3.5.

Buffalo Bills 19 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) at New York Giants (2-11)

The Eagles may have won the battle and lost the war in last week’s big road upset victory in Los Angeles over the Rams, as they have lost quarterback Carson Wentz for the season with a torn ACL. It’s a huge blow to this team’s Super Bowl chances, but I don’t think it’s a completely crippling blow. Prior to the season, I had the Eagles getting a first round bye in the NFC and I wasn’t even completely sold on Wentz at the time. This team is a lot more than just Wentz, even as Wentz was in the middle of an MVP caliber season.

Wentz isn’t the only player the Eagles have lost since the start of the year, as guys like left tackle Jason Peters, middle linebacker Jordan Hicks, and running back Darren Sproles are out for the season, but no one is completely healthy at this point in the season. The Eagles still have a strong supporting cast, including a talented defense and one of the best offensive lines in football. Foles is obviously a downgrade from Wentz, but he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and has some success as a starting quarterback. He struggled with the Rams in 2015, but that could easily be the result of terrible coaching by Jeff Fisher’s staff. Both Case Keenum and Jared Goff lead NFC contenders right now after getting away from Fisher’s coaching, so why couldn’t Foles at least capture some of his pre-Rams form, back when he was a low end starter at worst with Chip Kelly’s Eagles.

Given all that, I was expecting to make a bet on the Eagles this week in New York against the Giants, but, for some reason, this line barely moved from last week to this week, despite the Wentz injury. Favored by 8.5 points on the early line last week, the Eagles are still favored by 7.5 this week, line movement that is almost completely meaningless. The Giants did lose talented safety Landon Collins possibly for the season last week, but that doesn’t nearly cancel out the loss of Wentz. The Giants didn’t even look that bad last week, keeping it tied with the Cowboys until the 4th quarter, when the Cowboys ripped off a few big plays to pull ahead. If they are motivated for this divisional matchup, they could definitely keep it close. With that in mind, I’m taking the Giants at +7.5, albeit for a no confidence pick. This is just too much line value to pass on.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (8-5) at San Francisco 49ers (3-10)

This is one of the tougher games of the week for me. I’ve had the Titans as a top-10 team all season and their record at 8-5 looks pretty good, but it’s hard to deny how underwhelming they’ve been lately. If it weren’t for front door covers on long garbage time touchdown runs by Derrick Henry against both the Colts and the Texans, the Titans would have covered the spread just once in the last 10 weeks and that was a 4-point win as 3-point road favorites in Indianapolis.

With a tougher schedule and worse luck in close games, they could easily be a 5-to-7 win team right now and they aren’t as talented as they were earlier in the year, with quarterback Marcus Mariota banged up and Derrick Morgan and DaQuan Jones out with injury in the front seven on defense. This is still a talented roster despite injuries, but they don’t seem well coached, so they could continue to underperform like they have for the past couple months.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as starting quarterback and have been playing much better defense in recent weeks thanks to the play of rookies Ahkello Witherspoon and Reuben Foster. However, those two wins came against the Bears and Texans and the 49ers still have a lot of holes on this roster, especially with right tackle Trent Brown out for the year. This line is at San Francisco -2, so we’re not really getting line value with them like we had been in recent weeks.

The Titans are also in a good spot in their second of two road games. Teams are 258-276 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.90 points per game, as opposed to 379-525 straight up in a road game that’s sandwiched between two home games, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game, a difference of about 2 points. They’re in an especially good spot because they lost last week, as road underdogs are 121-80 ATS in their second of two road games off of a road loss. I have this line calculated at Tennessee -2.5, but I can’t be confident in the Titans at +2 because we might not know quite how bad Marcus Mariota is injured or quite how good Jimmy Garoppolo is. The money line does make some sense though.

Sunday Update: This line has moved to +3 in some places Sunday morning. That’s worth a small bet if you can get it. The Titans are more talented than they’ve played lately and the 49ers still have a lot of holes on their roster.

Tennessee Titans 19 San Francisco 49ers 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

The Jaguars got arguably their biggest win of the season last week, holding on in a 30-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. However, they easily could have lost that game, as they lost the first down rate battle at -1.24% and needed to win the turnover margin by 2 to pull out a 6-point victory. Despite that, this line has moved from 8.5 last week on the early line to 10.5 this week, as the Jaguars seem to have legitimized themselves in the eyes of the public a little bit. Typically, I bet against line movements that seem unwarranted, but I actually think this line is still a little too low.

The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL without all of the players they are missing with injury, including quarterback Deshaun Watson, defensive end JJ Watt, and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus. They are down to 3rd string quarterback TJ Yates, behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, and, without Watt and Mercilus, this once stout defense is average at best. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a top-10 team and have been for weeks, led by the top defense in the NFL, which is now fully healthy after stud linebacker Telvin Smith missed the last two games with a concussion.

The Texans are also in a terrible spot because they have to turn around and host the Steelers. It’s not that they won’t be focused for the Jaguars this week, but it’s very tough for teams to keep it close against superior teams when they have another tough game on deck. Teams are 33-55 ATS as underdogs of 7+ before being underdogs of 7+ since 2012, including 7-18 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, which the Texans likely will be next week at home against the Steelers (+8 on the early line). The Jaguars, meanwhile, have only a trip to San Francisco on deck and should be able to take care of business against an inferior opponent. There’s not enough here for me to be confident in the Jaguars, but that would change if this line drops to 10.

Sunday Update: This line has moved to -10 in some places Sunday morning. Leonard Fournette is out for the Jaguars, but they are pretty deep at the running back position and have had success without him this season. Meanwhile, top receiver DeAndre Hopkins is not 100% for the Texans, after not practicing all week. He basically is this whole offense at this point in the season and an injury makes him that much easier for Jacksonville’s loaded secondary to deal with. Jacksonville is worth a small bet at -10.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 10

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -10

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

The Seahawks have perennially had one of the top defenses in the league over the past several seasons, but they’ve had a season from hell injury wise on that side of the ball. They lost top edge rusher Cliff Avril for the season early in the year with a neck injury. Then both #1 cornerback Richard Sherman and Pro-Bowl safety Kam Chancellor had their season cut short by injuries to their achilles and neck respectively. And then last week, in a huge game on the road in Jacksonville, they lost two their stud linebackers, Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, with a hamstring injury and a concussion respectively.

Despite that, the Seahawks actually won the first down battle in a close road loss in Jacksonville, against a legitimately good Jaguars team. The Rams won in Jacksonville this year, but needed two return touchdowns in a game in which they lost the first down battle badly. The Seahawks also beat the Eagles at home in Seattle when Carson Wentz was healthy, something only one other team has done this season. The Rams, meanwhile, lost to the Eagles at home last week, despite Wentz going down for the season with a torn ACL late in the 3rd quarter.

The Seahawks’ offense has gotten better with Mike Davis at running back and Duane Brown at left tackle and their defense has continued to play well thanks to strong play from newcomers like Bradley McDougald, Shaq Griffin, and Byron Maxwell. I wish the Seahawks were getting KJ Wright back this week, but Bobby Wagner could return from his hamstring injury, as he’s been called a gametime decision. Even with their injury situation, I still feel like the Seahawks are a little bit better than the Rams and should be at least 3 point favorites here at home. There’s not enough here for me to bet Seattle -2 with confidence, given that Wright will be out and Wagner will be uncertain, but the Seahawks are the smarter choice for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -2

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3)

The Vikings lost last week as 3-point favorites in Carolina, but this line still moved from Minnesota -9 over Cincinnati on the early line last week to -11 this week, as a result of the Bengals’ 33-7 home loss to the Chicago Bears. I haven’t soured on the Bengals quite as much as the general public seems to have. The Bears have been an underrated team for most of the season and the Bengals were also in a terrible spot, missing a couple key players with injury, coming off of a close loss at home to the division rival Steelers, with this tough game in Minnesota on deck.

Even with the big loss last week, the Bengals still rank 20th in first down rate differential at -0.86%. They aren’t the same team without stud linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who remains out with a concussion for the 2nd straight game, but they could get running back Joe Mixon back from a one-game absence with his concussion after he returned to practice on Thursday and Friday. They also are fortunate enough to be playing a Minnesota team that is having their own injury issues. Right tackle Mike Remmers and center Pat Elflein are set to return from injuries, but left tackle Riley Reiff and tight end Kyle Rudolph will miss this game.

Minnesota is also in a terrible spot this week, much like the Bengals were last week. They are coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and have to turn around and go to Green Bay next week to face Aaron Rodgers and company. Double digit favorites typically don’t cover before being underdogs, which is what the Vikings will be in Green Bay next week. Teams are 58-78 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Bengals, meanwhile, should be completely focused with only a home game against the Lions on deck, especially given how they got embarrassed last week.

Much like the Bears caught the Bengals off guard last week, the Bengals could easily catch the Vikings off guard this week. They’re probably not going to win easily like the Bears did last week, as the Vikings are still a lot better coached and more talented than the Vikings, but they could easily keep this close against a Minnesota team that has just 4 wins by more than 10 points this season (Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Browns). The Bengals are worth a bet as long as this line is 10 or higher.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +11

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (6-7) at Washington Redskins (5-8)

The Redskins have fallen to 5-8 after a big 30-13 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week, while the Cardinals snuck out a 12-7 home victory over the skidding Titans to improve to 6-7. As a result, this line shifted from Washington -6 to -4, a significant line movement, considering about 15% of games are decided by 4-6 points. Typically I love going against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This time is no exception.

The Redskins looked bad against the Chargers last week, but the Chargers are a legitimately good team, so I don’t hold that against them too much. The Redskins have looked a lot better against other legitimately good teams this season, beating the Seahawks and Rams and coming close against the Saints. In fact, they’ve had the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season, so their 5-8 record doesn’t look so bad all things considered. The good news for them is they close out the season with arguably the easiest schedule in the league, facing the Cardinals, Broncos, and Giants.

This home game against the Cardinals is arguably their 3rd easiest game of the entire season, outside of home games against the 49ers and Giants. The Cardinals have been destroyed by injury this season, particularly on offense, where they are without quarterback Carson Palmer, running back David Johnson, wide receiver John Brown, and 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen from week 1. On defense, they are without safety Tyvon Branch and outside linebacker Markus Golden, two above average starters.

They’ve won 3 games since losing Carson Palmer in a week 7 blowout loss in London to the Rams (33-0), but one of them came in San Francisco against a 49ers team that was winless at the time and the other two came in close fashion at home against the Titans and Jaguars, in games in which the Cardinals won despite losing the first down battle. They’ve also lost at home to the Seahawks and Rams and even lost by 10 in Houston to Tom Savage. They haven’t been very good on the road in general this season, going 1-5 ATS away from home. On top of that, they could be a little flat after a big home victory last week. Teams only cover the spread at a 45% off of a home upset victory. I like the Redskins a good amount this week.

Washington Redskins 24 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: Washington -4

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)

When the Packers lost Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone in week 6, many assumed it was the end for the Packers. They were still 4-2 after losing to the Vikings in the game Rodgers went down, but it was unknown if Aaron Rodgers would return at all this season and backup quarterback Brett Hundley was not going to lead this team to the Super Bowl like Rodgers could have. Even making the playoffs seemed like an uphill battle at that point.

Fast forward to the present in week 15 and Rodgers is able to return to action after missing the minimum 8 weeks and, despite playing in a tough NFC, the Packers are still alive in the playoff race at 7-6. Hundley certainly did not play great in Rodgers’ absence, but he played well enough to sneak out 3 wins against a weak bunch, the Bears, the Buccaneers, and the Browns. The latter two victories both came in overtime in the past 2 weeks, as the Packers have held onto their playoff hopes by a thread. If the Packers can win out and finish 10-6, they’ll be right in the mix for one of the two wild card spots in the NFC.

Even with Rodgers back though, that’s going to be easier said than done. While the Packers’ schedule was relatively easy during Rodgers’ absence, their schedule is arguably the hardest in the NFL to close out the season, as they face a trio of teams with better than .500 records, the Panthers, the Vikings, and the Lions. The good news is their first opponent, the Carolina Panthers, are in a bad spot this week. They are coming off of an emotional home victory over the Minnesota Vikings last week, winning 31-24 in upset fashion, and they could struggle to maintain that kind of intensity two weeks in a row. Teams understandably only cover at a 45% rate after a win as home underdogs.

The Panthers will also be missing talented right guard Trai Turner in this one with a concussion, which will be a big blow to this offense. The Panthers are a little bit overrated right now too, as they aren’t quite as good as their 9-4 record. They are 6-1 in games decided by 8 points or fewer and could easily be 7-6 or so right now had a few things not gone their way. I have the Packers as the significantly better team in this one and I love getting a full field goal with the better team in the better spot. This is a high confidence pick at +3 and I like the money line at +125 as well, as this game is no worse than a 50/50 toss up for the Packers.

Green Bay Packers 26 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High