2017 Week 10 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)

One of my favorite things to do when picking games is go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week, and this line had a  very significant line movement, shifting from 4.5 in favor of the hometown Buccaneers last week on the early line to 2.5 in favor of the visiting Jets this week. Tampa Bay top wide receiver Mike Evans was suspended and Ryan Fitzpatrick will start this game at quarterback for the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston taking a few weeks off to rest his shoulder injury, but none of that justifies this 7 point line movement.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a good starting quarterback, but as far as backup quarterbacks go he’s among the better ones and he might not be that much of a downgrade from Winston considering how badly Winston had been playing in recent weeks, as he tried to play through his injured shoulder. Losing Evans hurts, but the Buccaneers have a very deep receiving corps and still have good receiving options this week with wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, and Chris Godwin and tight ends Cameron Brate and OJ Howard. Against a relatively easy matchup at home, Fitzpatrick should be able to move the ball.

They’re also arguably as healthy as they’ve been on defense since the start of the season with top cornerback Brent Grimes returning from injury. He’s missed 3 games, linebacker Kwon Alexander has missed 4, and fellow linebacker Lavonte David has missed 2, but all three will be on the field this week. Prior to Winston’s injury, I thought this was an underrated team, as they started 2-2 and would have beaten New England if they had make makeable field goals, and now I think they are underrated once again, as the public has soured on them despite their defense getting healthier. Even with all of their injury issues, the Buccaneers still rank 19th in first down rate differential, as 3 of their 6 losses have come by a touchdown or less.

The Jets are well coached and give good effort, but they aren’t that talented of a team and don’t deserve to be favored on the road against anyone except the worst few teams in the league, which I don’t think the Buccaneers are. They were road favorites in Cleveland earlier this year and they would have lost that game if the Browns hadn’t consistently imploded in the red zone. They haven’t been nearly as good on the road in general this season, losing by more than a touchdown in Buffalo and Oakland, losing in Miami, and barely winning in Cleveland.

The Jets are 5-0 ATS at home and are coming off of a win against the Bills, but the Bills were an overrated team, so I’m not as impressed with that victory as the odds makers and the general public seem to be. I have this line calculated at -3 in favor of the Buccaneers, so we are getting a lot of line value at +2.5. I am hoping this line moves to +3 before game time, in which case I will make this a high confidence pick. The Buccaneers are worth a bet as long as we are getting points with them, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly, so I want protection from the Jets winning by 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

Early in the week, I locked in the Cowboys at +3.5 and I was considering them as a Pick of the Week. They’ve played much better since getting top linebacker Sean Lee back from injury and they always play well on the road, going 35-25 ATS since 2010 away from Cowboy Stadium, as a result of the Cowboys’ nationwide fanbase. I had these two teams about comparable in my roster rankings, so getting more than a field goal with a good road team was very appealing to me and I didn’t think 3.5 would stay around long.

I was correct about that, as the line had shifted to 3 by mid-week, but then Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension went back on and left tackle Tyron Smith missed practice all week, so I don’t like the Cowboys nearly as much as I did earlier in the week. Despite that, this line has stayed at 3 so I would not recommend a bet on the current line. Because I did lock in Dallas +3.5 early in the week, this will count as a medium confidence pick. Atlanta has not been playing that well lately, so the Cowboys still have a decent chance to pull out the victory or at least keep it within a field goal. At +3, this is a no confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has moved back to 3.5 with Tyron Smith being ruled out. This could easily be a field goal game and the Cowboys are still a good road team, so grabbing +3.5 makes some sense if you can get it.

Atlanta Falcons 30 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-2) at Denver Broncos (3-5)

This line has the Broncos as 7.5 point home underdogs against the Patriots and I don’t understand it. The Broncos were just 7 point road underdogs in Philadelphia last week and the Eagles are playing significantly better than the Patriots this season. The Broncos lost that game 51-23, but the Eagles were in a great spot heading into a bye and the Broncos likely quit once they got down big early, knowing that they had this game against the Patriots on deck. They should be a lot more focused for this game and they are back at home, where they are 3-1 this season, with wins over the Chargers, Cowboys, and Raiders.

The Broncos’ big loss in Philadelphia last week moved this line from 5.5 on the early line to 7.5, a sizeable shift considering about 15% of games are decided by 6-7 points. I think even 5.5 would be too high as I have this line calculated at New England -3. Even after by far their worst defensive showing of the year last week, the Broncos still rank 5th in first down rate allowed and they still have a top-5 defense on paper. Prior to last week, Denver ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate allowed. Their offense has major problems led by Brock Osweiler, but the Patriots rank 31st in first down rate allowed and the Broncos might be able to run the ball effectively and hide Osweiler, especially if the game is going to be close.

The one concern with taking the Broncos is that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and road favorites of 3.5 or more points are 40-16 ATS since 1989 after a regular season bye when their opponent is not coming off of a bye. The Patriots don’t come out of the bye healthy though, with defensive tackle Malcom Brown, right tackle Marcus Cannon, and wide receiver Chris Hogan out this week. I’m not sure the Patriots deserve to even be 3.5 point road favorites and I definitely think 7.5 is way too high for this line. Without another strong option this week, this is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Denver +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

The Bills started the season 5-2 on the strength of a league best +14 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they ranked just 28th in first down rate differential. Last week, they lost 34-21 in New York to the Jets as 3.5 point road favorites, in a game in which they lost the turnover margin by -3. They also had a first down rate differential of -5.54% in that game and still rank 28th in first down rate differential on the season at -3.89%. If we assume turnover neutral football for the Bills in the second half of the season, which you almost always should when evaluating a team given how inconsistent turnover margins are, the Bills will have a lot harder time winning games in the second half of the season.

Despite Buffalo’s big loss, I was still able to lock this line in at -2.5 in favor of the visiting Saints earlier in the week, the same line as the early line last week. You can still get that line in a few places for a higher vig. I have these two teams about 6.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so this line should be at least -3, if not higher. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the difference between -2.5 and -3/-3.5 is pretty big. The Saints are 6-2, have won 6 straight, rank 6th in first down rate differential, and have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL thanks to a much improved defense. Only about 8% of games are decided by 2 points or less, so the Saints basically need to just win here. They should be able to win this game by at least a field goal. This is a high confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Buffalo Bills 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

The Seahawks lost at home to a banged up Redskins team last week, causing this line to drop from 7 in favor of the Seahawks on the early line last week to 6 this week. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but 7 is a key number because about 9% of games are decided by 7 points exactly, making it the 2nd most common margin of victory, behind 3 (15%). It’s also a bit of an overreaction because the Seahawks won the first down battle in that game 22 and 16 and would have won the game (which they ended up losing by 3) had they not missed 3 makeable field goals. If the Seahawks win last week, even in a close one, I think this line stays put at 7.

The Cardinals won in San Francisco last week, but, with all of their injuries, the 49ers are arguably the least talented team in the league this year, so that wasn’t a terribly impressive win. The Cardinals were able to establish their running game with Adrian Peterson, which allowed them to hide quarterback Drew Stanton, who is filling in for an injured Carson Palmer. That gameplan won’t be as successful this week because the Seahawks have a much better run defense and, if Seattle gets up big early, they won’t be able to keep their play calling as conservative (43 runs to 30 passes against the 49ers). Peterson could also be worn out on a short week, after getting 39 touches last week, most ever by a running back over 30. Peterson is obviously a freak of nature, something he’s proven time and time again, but 60+ touches in 5-day stretch is a lot for any running back, especially one over 30.

Despite their loss last week, the Seahawks are still one of the better teams in the league, especially now that they have an actual left tackle after acquiring Duane Brown from the Texans at the trade deadline. They’re also healthier this week than last with Sheldon Richardson returning from a one-game absence. Earl Thomas remains out, but he won’t be needed as much in this game because of the Cardinals’ quarterback situation. The Cardinals were a below average team even before the Palmer injury and Stanton is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now. He hasn’t completed more than 50% of his passes or had more touchdowns than interceptions in a season since 2013 and he has a career QB rating of 65.9. We’re not getting enough line value with the Seahawks to take them confidently, but they should be the right pick as long as the line is lower than a touchdown.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

NO -2.5 @ BUF (I would NOT take -3)

DAL +3.5 @ ATL (I would also take +3)

LAC +4.5 @ JAX (I would also take +4 and +3.5)

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Low