Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
I wish I had locked the Vikings in at -3 last week on the early line. After the Ravens’ embarrassing home loss to the Bears last week (in which they failed to score on offensive touchdown), this line shifted from -3 to -5.5. That’s too many points to confidently lay with a team quarterbacked by Case Keenum, even against a Baltimore team that I’ve thought all season is overrated. I have this line right at -5.5, given that the Vikings will be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs and that the Ravens will get defensive lineman Brandon Williams back from injury, so we’re not getting any line value either way.
The Vikings are in a tough spot with their London game on deck, as teams are understandably 14-24 ATS before going to London, but the Ravens have to face the Dolphins on a short week after this one, so it kind of evens out. On top of that, the Vikings are going to London to face the Browns, so it’s not like they have a tough upcoming game. Given that, I’m going to take the Vikings here, but this is a no confidence pick as we’ve lost all line value after Baltimore’s terrible performance last week.
Minnesota Vikings 19 Baltimore Ravens 13
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -5.5