2018 Week 11 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-3) at Washington Redskins (6-3)

These two teams are both 6-3, but the Texans are by far the better team right now. On the season, they have a +32 point differential, as opposed to a +1 point differential for the Redskins. That’s despite the fact that the Redskins have a +11 turnover margin, something they will not be able to count on for the rest of the season, given how unpredictable turnover margin is week-to-week. The Redskins are also in a much worse injury situation, missing starting cornerback Quinton Dunbar, starting wide receivers Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder, and three starting offensive linemen, including their two best: left tackle Trent Williams and right guard Brandon Scherff.

Two weeks ago, the Redskins had a disastrous home loss to the Falcons and, though they won last week in Tampa Bay, they did not look good in doing it. They only scored one touchdown on the worst scoring defense in the league and, though they held the Buccaneers to 3 points, they allowed 501 yards in doing it, as the Buccaneers missed 2 field goals, committed 4 turnovers, and didn’t score a touchdown in 5 red zone appearances. The Buccaneers won the first down battle 29 to 15 and pushed the Redskins down to 26th in the league on the season in first down rate differential at -3.71%. The Texans, by contrast, rank 9th at +3.06% and are much healthier coming out of the bye.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Texans in the past week, as this line strangely shifted from even on the early line last week to Houston -3 this week, despite the Texans being on bye and the Redskins winning in Tampa Bay. The odds makers probably just realized they originally released a bad line. Even at -3, I still like the Texans, as they’re in a great spot coming out of the bye. Road favorites of 3+ are 48-16 ATS after a bye since 2002, as being away from home does not affect good teams that are rested nearly as much as normal. This is worth a small bet.

Houston Texans 20 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) at Chicago Bears (6-3)

The Bears have quietly been one of the best teams in the league this season. Their 6-3 record is impressive, but they’ve been even better than that suggests. Their 3 losses have come by a combined 11 points and they rank 4th in point differential at +94. In first down rate differential, they are even better, entering this week first at +7.68%. Much like Jacksonville a year ago, they have the best defense in football and their offense gives them enough to win most weeks. They aren’t frequently mentioned as contenders, but they have enough talent and are playing well enough that they should be.

The Vikings are arguably as healthy as they’ve been all season coming out of their bye, after an injury plagued first half of the season, but the Bears are still the better of these two teams. This line, only favoring the Bears by 2.5 points, suggests the opposite. I actually have the Bears a few points better than the Vikings and I have this line calculated at Chicago -5.5. That’s a significant difference, because it crosses the key number of 3. As long as the Bears basically just have to win here at home to cover I like their chances a lot.

The one concern I have with the Bears is that they play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving and the track record of favorites before Thursday Night Football (51-71 ATS since 2012) isn’t great. However, this is a chance for the Bears to make a statement and prove they belong as the contender (and to put themselves in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North), so I don’t think the Bears are really going to be looking past this game to next week’s matchup with the last place Lions all that much. They’re one of my top plays of the week.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: High

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)

I’ve thought the Broncos are underrated for most of the season, as they are about even in point differential (-8), despite their 3-6 record, with 4 of their losses coming by a combined 16 points to the Texans, Rams, and Chiefs (twice), who are all division leaders. In first down rate differential, they are even better, ranking 10th at +2.83%. However, the injuries have started to pile up for them, especially on the offensive line. Already missing talented right guard Ron Leary for the season, the Broncos lost center Matt Paradis, their best offensive lineman, for the year in their final game before the bye and then lost fill-in right guard Max Garcia with a torn ACL during practice this week.

The Chargers, meanwhile, might be getting stud edge rusher Joey Bosa back for the first time this year, after he returned to practice this week. He’s not a guarantee to play and likely wouldn’t be 100% in his first game back, but he’d be a big boost to a defense that was one of the best in the league with him healthy in 2017. The Chargers finished the 2017 season 4th in first down rate allowed at 31.09%, but they rank just 13th at 35.84% this season. Bosa’s absence isn’t the only difference between last year and this year for this Chargers’ defense, but, assuming he returns to form, he’ll be a huge re-addition for this team down the stretch.

The Chargers are also in a much better spot. While the Broncos have to follow this game up with a big home game against the Steelers, the Chargers get yet another easy game next week with the Arizona Cardinals coming to town. The Broncos obviously won’t look past their division rival Chargers, but it’s very tough for inferior teams to compete when they have another tough game on deck, as underdogs of 6+ are 47-71 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are also 31-60 ATS in general since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6+, as big upcoming home games tend to be a bit of a distraction.

On the other side, favorites of 6+ are 88-53 ATS since 2014 before being favored by 6+ again, including a ridiculous 28-7 ATS if their opponent will be 6+ point underdogs again the following week. Big home favorites tend to take care of business with easy games on deck, especially against an opponent that has to play another tough game the following week. That situation definitely applies to this game.

It worries me a little that there will be more Broncos fans than Chargers fans at this game, as the Chargers still can’t draw fans in Los Angeles even at 7-2, but, even with the Chargers’ lack of homefield advantage taken into account, I still have this line calculated at Chargers -8 over a banged up Denver team, so we’re still getting some line value with the Chargers, who also happen to be in the better spot. They are worth a bet and I will probably make this a bigger play if it’s announced Bosa is playing and the line doesn’t move to compensate.

Sunday Update: Bosa is expected to play, but will likely be limited to about 10-15 snaps, so I’m leaving this pick as is.

Los Angeles Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -7

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

These two teams have similar records, but the Packers have been the better team this season, as the Seahawks have been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin. They are +8 on the season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that every week, especially against top level quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers. In the past two weeks, they’ve had an even turnover margin facing Philip Rivers and Jared Goff, after facing a relatively easy slate of quarterbacks to begin the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Packers are significantly ahead, ranking 12th at 1.43%, while the Seahawks rank 22nd at -2.33%.

The Packers are also in the better injury situation. While the Seahawks will once again be without linebacker KJ Wright (as well as injured reserved safety Earl Thomas), the Packers have been a lot better defensively since getting Jaire Alexander back from injury a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers is also healthier than he was earlier in the season, while running back Aaron Jones has broken out as their lead back, after being suspended for the first two games of the season. They played arguably their best game of the season last week at home against Miami, winning the first down rate battle by 16.67%, an impressive number even against an underwhelming team like the Dolphins.

This line suggests these two teams are about even, favoring the hometown Seahawks by a field goal, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitoring Packers. The Packers’ 0-4 road record worries me a little, but if you look at those games, they should have won in Detroit, where Mason Crosby melted down and couldn’t hit a kick, and two of those losses came against the Rams and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league, in games the Packers were in late.

I’m more worried about the track record of non-divisional road underdogs on Thursday Night Football (15-34 ATS), as it’s very tough to travel on a short week and face a relatively unfamiliar opponent (unless you have enough of a talent advantage to be favored). I know Rodgers has faced off against the Seahawks a bunch of times, but this is close to a completely remade Seahawks roster, so he won’t benefit from that familiarity factor on a short week. That being said, there’s still too much line value to pass on here with the Packers, who you could argue should be favored by a couple points in this one (making that aforementioned trend less relevant). At the very least, this should be an even line. Both the spread (at +3) and moneyline are worth small bets in this one.

Final Update: I’m staying with a medium confidence pick, but I did discover one stat that should make Packer bettors feel more confident. The Packers are the 18th team to be undefeated at home and winless on the road week 8 or later in the past 30 years. The previous 17 are 9-8 straight up (10-6-1 ATS) in their next road game. It’s a small sample size, but home/road variances tend to be random more than anything, so I wouldn’t expect the Packers to struggle on the road in this one just because they’re 0-4 on the road.

Green Bay Packers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

2018 Week 10 NFL Pick Results

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Week 10

Total Against the Spread: 8-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 1-1

Medium Confidence Picks: 2-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 4-2

Low Confidence Picks: 3-2

No Confidence Picks: 1-2

Upset Picks: 0-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 89-56-3 (61.15%)

Pick of the Week: 5-4-1

High Confidence Picks: 9-7

Medium Confidence Picks: 26-15

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 40-26-1 (60.45%)

Low Confidence Picks: 19-14

No Confidence Picks: 30-16-2

Upset Picks: 12-10-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 780-664-39 (53.91%)

Pick of the Week: 56-38-3 (59.28%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 370-272-15 (57.46%)

Upset Picks: 119-146-1 (44.92%)