2018 Week 6 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at New England Patriots (3-2)

After last week’s win over a tough Jacksonville team that improved their record to 5-0, the Chiefs were anointed by many as the clear favorite in the AFC, but now they have to turn around and face another tough test in New England. The Patriots lost in Jacksonville earlier in the season, but they’re much improved since then. They’ve gotten top pass rusher Trey Flowers and valuable safety Patrick Chung back from injury on defense, wide receiver Julian Edelman has returned on offense, fellow wide receiver Josh Gordon has gotten more integrated into this offense, after being acquired via trade week 3, and first round rookie Sony Michel has broken out as the lead running back.

This game is also in New England, where the Patriots are virtually unbeatable, with just 22 losses in 150 games started at home by Tom Brady. It’s even tougher to win in New England for young quarterbacks like Pat Mahomes, who is in just his 7th career start. Remarkably a quarterback under the age of 25 has never beaten Tom Brady in Gillette in the regular season. Even more remarkable is Brady’s record in his career against teams with a better record than his. The league average winning percentage is 38.3% against teams with better records, but Brady is 35-12 straight up (74.5%) and 37-10 ATS. It’s going to be much tougher for the Chiefs to beat the Patriots this week than it was for the Jaguars to beat them in Jacksonville week 2.

The Chiefs’ offense is obviously dominant, but their defense remains a major concern. The common narrative seems to be that their defense is fixed because they held Jacksonville to 14 points last week, but they still allowed 29 first downs. They did force 5 takeaways, but other than takeaways they’ve had real trouble getting off the field this year, allowing a league high 142 first downs (13 more than the next closest team). Tom Brady and company are unlikely to turn the ball over much, so the Chiefs figure to have a really tough time getting them off the field, especially now that they’re missing top pass rusher Justin Houston.

This game will be a shootout, but the Patriots defense is underrated at full health and ultimately I trust them to get some stops against a young quarterback on the road in a hostile environment more than I trust the Chiefs to slow down this New England offense with Eric Berry and Justin Houston on the sidelines. I have this line calculated at New England -6, so we’re getting good line value with them at -3 and they’re in a great spot because they always get up for these big games against tough opponents. This is my Pick of the Week if you can get -3, even if you have to pay extra juice, but it’s worth a big bet even at -3.5 too if you’re getting less than normal juice.

New England Patriots 38 Kansas City Chiefs 30

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)

After pulling an upset at home against the defending champion Eagles week 4, the Titans turned around and lost in upset fashion in Buffalo last week. That seems surprising at first glance, but both games were close and easily could have gone the other way. On top of that the Titans were in a much better spot against Philadelphia than they were against Buffalo and understandably played a better game as a result. While they were completely focused at home for the Eagles with an easy game on deck, their game in Buffalo was a trap game, sandwiched between that tough overtime win and another big home game, this game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Even after last week’s overtime loss in Cleveland, the Ravens come in with a solid record at 3-2. They’re a little overrated though. Their offense is improved over last season, but largely by default and, while their defense continues to dominate statistically, their stats have been buoyed by an easy schedule, as they’ve faced 7 backup quarterbacks over the past 2 seasons are just 4-9 in their other 13 games. None of this is to say they are a bad team. With an improved offense, the Ravens have wins over a pair of decent teams in the Broncos and Steelers this season, but they also have road losses in Cincinnati and Cleveland and are not as good as this line suggests, as they are favored by 2.5 points in Tennessee.

I have these two teams about equal. Both teams have underwhelming offenses, but strong defenses. That would suggest this line should be 3 points in favor of the Titans, so we’re getting good line value with the host. The Titans probably won’t be a popular bet this week because of their loss last week, which is probably a big part of why this line is where it is, but, again, that was a terrible spot and they could have easily won, especially if they didn’t lose Taylor Lewan to a foot injury early in the game (he was listed not on the injury report this week). With wins over the Jaguars and Eagles already on their resume, I don’t think that loss should hurt them that much. This would be a bigger bet if this line creeps back up to 3, but even as 2.5 point underdogs the Titans are worth a bet.

Tennessee Titans 20 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

The Redskins were blown out last week in New Orleans, but the Saints are a great team and they were in a great spot at home going into their bye, so I don’t hold that against the Redskins too much. The Redskins also have a convincing win over the Packers and a dominant performance against the Cardinals on their resume and have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC, as long as they continue to avoid major injuries to key players, which was not the case last season.

Despite that, the Redskins are actually one point underdogs at home in this game against the Panthers. The Redskins have some injuries in the receiving corps and the Panthers get some reinforcements this week with Greg Olsen and Thomas Davis coming back from injury and suspension respectively, so I wouldn’t recommend making a big bet on this game, but both Olsen and Davis are up there in age and haven’t played in a while, so it’s unclear how much they will actually help and, even with the Panthers getting reinforcements and the Redskins a little banged up, I still have these two teams basically even in my rankings, meaning the Redskins should be favored by at least a field goal here at home. They’re worth a bet this week.

Washington Redskins 23 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Washington +1

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

The Packers lost last week in Detroit, but they still won the first down rate battle by +4.82% and had 30 first downs to 18 for the Lions. They lost because of 4 missed field goals and 3 lost fumbles, but still managed to keep it an 8-point game, so they could have easily won if they didn’t make so many mistakes. This week, they return home, where they have been much better in recent years, going 36-17 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers since 2011.

The Packers also have a much easier opponent this week, as the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league without Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Packers are in a great spot going into a bye. Favorites of 6 or more tend to take care of business going into a bye, going 38-16 ATS since 2014, including 28-11 ATS at home. The Packers are favored by 9.5 here, but, considering how bad the 49ers are, I think that line is short and we are getting good line value with the hosts, who could easily be favored by 12-13 points in this one. The Packers should win this one with ease and cover in the process.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)

This line was -3 in favor of Cincinnati last week on the early line, but it has since shifted to -1.5, as a result of Pittsburgh’s big 41-17 win over the Falcons last week. After a rough start to the season, the people seem to be back to thinking the Steelers are a top AFC contender, so they are overrated again. As impressive as their win last week was, it came at home against an Atlanta team that is mediocre without all of the players they are missing due to injury.

It was also just their third win by more than a touchdown since the midway point of last season, a span of 14 games, and just their 6th win by more than a touchdown since the beginning of last season, with their other 9 wins coming by a combined 31 points. They’ve also still allowed 26.3 points per game in their last 10 games since losing stud linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury late last season. They held Atlanta to 17 last week, but that was just the second time in those 10 games that they’ve kept a team under 21, with the other instance coming against a TJ Yates led Texans team. Their defensive issues aren’t suddenly fixed just because of one good game.

Despite that, this line suggests the Steelers are slightly better than the hometown Bengals. Even if this line was at -3 like it was last week, suggesting these two teams are about even, we’d still be getting line value with the Bengals, who are the better team in this game. I have this line calculated at -5. The Bengals have begun the year 4-1 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +5.38%, 8 spots better than the Steelers (+1.18%).

Even more impressive is that they’ve done that with running back Joe Mixon and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, two of their more important players, missing time with injury and suspension respectively. Both returned last week, but they should be much closer to 100% this week after being limited in their returns. The Bengals are the better team at home, so they should be able to win relatively easily, which is really all they need to do to cover this small line. I like them a lot this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1.5

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at New York Giants (1-4)

Last week, the Eagles were my Pick of the Week as 3-point home favorites against the Vikings. They lost by 2, but easily could have won. They had 2 more first downs and one more offensive touchdown than the Vikings on 6 fewer plays, a +9.03% first down rate differential, but lost because of a long defensive touchdown, a goal line fumble, and a bad roughing the passer call. As a result of that loss, the Eagles remain underrated.

Their record isn’t pretty, but they’re still a very talented group and they’re not exactly getting blown out, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 11 points. It’s not a stretch to say they could easily be 4-1 and if that were the case no one would have any concerns about them, especially with Carson Wentz continuing to round into form. The Eagles have also won the first down rate battle in 2 of those losses and have a +3.88% first down rate differential on the year, 7th in the NFL.

After briefly opening at -2.5, this line moved back to -3 in favor of the Eagles, as it was on the early line last week. Despite the lack of line movement, we are still getting good line value with the Eagles. I have this line calculated at -5.5, as the Giants are a mediocre opponent. Despite their record, the Eagles are at least comparable to the Jaguars and Saints, who have both already covered as road favorites in New York against the Giants. The Eagles should do so as well. This isn’t as big of a play as last week, but I will make this a bigger play if the line moves back down to -2.5. In some books, it’s available at -2.5 with higher juice.

Thursday Update: Lane Johnson was surprisingly added to the injury report Thursday morning with an ankle injury and is not expected to play tonight. That knocks my calculated line down to -4, but the line also dropped from 3 to 2 to compensate for Johnson’s absence, so this remains a medium confidence bet. The difference between 2 and 4 might not seem big at first, but only 4% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 24% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Eagles should be able to win this one without Johnson and as mere 2-point favorites that’s basically all they need to do to cover.

Final Update: Johnson is surprisingly active for this one. The line has stayed put at 2 despite that, but I’m hesitant to raise my bet because I’m not sure if Johnson can make it through the whole game.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: Medium

2018 Week 5 NFL Pick Results

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Week 5

Total Against the Spread: 6-9

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 5-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 6-2

Low Confidence Picks: 0-3

No Confidence Picks: 0-4

Upset Picks: 1-2

2018

Total Against the Spread: 45-31-2

Pick of the Week: 2-3

High Confidence Picks: 7-3

Medium Confidence Picks: 16-8

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 25-14

Low Confidence Picks: 7-7

No Confidence Picks: 13-10-2

Upset Picks: 7-7-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 730-630-38 (53.58%)

Pick of the Week: 53-37-2 (58.70%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 355-260-14 (57.55%)

Upset Picks: 114-143-1 (44.38%)