2019 NFL Wild Card Picks

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

These two teams met in Philadelphia back in week 12, with the Seahawks winning a game that was 17-3 before a late Eagles touchdown cut it to a one score game. The conventional thinking is that the Seahawks shouldn’t have much trouble winning again in Philadelphia, but that historically has not been the case, as teams are 32-19 ATS over the past 30 years in same-site rematches against non-divisional opponents, including 15-5 ATS when the previous matchup was week 11 or later. 

The Eagles also played better than the final score suggested in that game, with the game largely swinging on the turnover margin, which the Seahawks won by 3. Outside of 3 snaps, the Eagles played the Seahawks evenly and might have actually outplayed them, winning the first down rate battle by 5.73%. Turnover margin is highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Eagles won’t necessarily lose the turnover battle this week just because they did in the previous matchup. In fact, teams have an average turnover margin of -0.1 in a same-season rematch against a team who won the turnover battle by 3 or more in the previous meeting.

The Eagles didn’t just win the first down rate battle in the first matchup either, as the Eagles finished with a higher first down rate differential at +1.97% on the season, as compared to -1.17% for the Seahawks. The Seahawks won two more games than the Eagles, but of the Seahawks’ 11 wins, all but one came by one score or fewer, including two wins because of last second missed makeable field goals. The Seahawks actually finished just 1-3 in games decided by more than one score. Close wins got them into the playoffs, but blowout wins tend to be much more predictive of future success than close wins. The Eagles had 3 wins by 17 points or more and finished with a higher point differential at +31 vs. +7.

The Eagles have some key injury absences, but that was the case in the first matchup as well. In fact, if both tight end Zach Ertz and right tackle Lane Johnson can play through their questionable labels, the Eagles might actually be in better injury shape in this game than in the previous matchup, as Johnson didn’t play in the first game, along with a number of other key players. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are missing left tackle Duane Brown, left guard Mike Iupati, running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, and linebacker Mychal Kendricks from the first matchup. 

I’m somewhat concerned that this is Carson Wentz’s first career playoff start and teams are 14-32-1 ATS with a first time starter at quarterback, but the Eagles have plenty of playoff experience around Wentz on the roster and on the coaching staff, so they might end up being an exception to the rule like Pat Mahomes and Kansas City were last year. Even with Johnson and Ertz out, I have these two teams about even in my roster rankings, so I like the Eagles enough as 2.5-point home underdogs to bet them even if Ertz and Johnson can’t play, but if Ertz and/or Johnson are able to go, this will be a larger bet.

Update: Ertz is playing, but Lane Johnson is not. Johnson is the more important player so I am keeping this as a medium confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Seattle Seahawks 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2019 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)

The Vikings qualified for the post-season, but they finished the season just 1-4 against fellow playoff qualifiers, tied with the Bills for worst among playoff qualifiers. Their one win came against an Eagles team that only qualified because they play in the NFC East, while their losses came against the Packers twice, the Seahawks, and even the Matt Moore led Chiefs, back when Mahomes was sidelined with a knee injury. Making this even more concerning is Kirk Cousins’ well-documented struggles in big games. Cousins’ 7-15 record in primetime games (6-15-1 ATS) is well known, but his record in all games against teams with a winning record is even worse. 

Dating back to his first year as a starter in 2015, in games against teams entering with a winning record, excluding any games in week 3 or earlier when a team’s record might not mean much, Cousins’ teams are just 7-21, including just 3-10 since joining the Vikings. His ATS record of 10-17-1 ATS isn’t horrendous, but he’s just 3-9-1 ATS since joining the Vikings. There isn’t much to go off in terms of Cousins’ post-season history, as this is just his 2nd career playoff start, but it’s not a stretch to say his struggles against tough opponents will probably extend into the post-season and his lack of post-season experience could also work against him, facing a quarterback/head coach duo with 14 career playoff starts together in Drew Brees and Sean Payton.

In addition to having significant post-season experience, the Saints are also playing about as well as any team in the league right now. Since Drew Brees’ return from injury in week 8, the Saints rank 3rd in first down rate at 42.03% and 2nd in first down rate differential at +6.61. Their offense has been even better in recent weeks, with a 44.62% first down rate in their past 6 games and a 46.59% first down rate in their past 4 games, both best in the NFL over that stretch. 

It might seem improbable that the Saints can continue that rate going forward, but the Saints had a 43.48% first down rate last season in Brees’ 15 starts and at one point had a 45.69% first down rate through 11 games before slowing down late in the season, possibly due to an aging Drew Brees getting tired at the end of a 16-game season. This season, Brees’ injury may have been a blessing in disguise, as the missed time seems to have him fresher at the end of the season. Now fully past the injury, Brees seems to be heating up just in time for the playoffs. 

The Saints’ defense finished just 15th in first down rate allowed at 35.04% and they lost Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins, pair of key defensive linemen, with injury late in the season, but the Saints have more than enough on offense to compensate and they still have plenty of talent on defense. This line is pretty high at New Orleans -7.5, so there isn’t quite enough here to confidently bet on the Saints, especially since a Kirk Cousins backdoor cover seems somewhat likely, but New Orleans should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2019 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6)

The Bills and Texans both went 10-6 in the regular season, locking in their seeding at 10-5 with a week left to go in the season and resting starters in an eventual meaningless week 17 loss. The Texans faced a much tougher schedule though, with an opponents winning percentage of 53% (6th in the NFL) vs. 47% (28th in the NFL) for the Bills, who didn’t fare well against tougher competition in general. 

The Bills went just 1-4 against playoff qualifiers and that one win came over the Marcus Mariota led Titans back in week 5, a game in which the Titans missed 4 field goals in a 7-point loss. All in all, the Bills had just a -2.05% first down rate differential against opponents who finished with a .500 or better record. The Texans, meanwhile, went 3-3 against playoff qualifiers (3-2 if you exclude a meaningless week 17 loss to the Titans), including wins over the Chiefs and Patriots.  

The Texans have been underwhelming in recent weeks, but they get a much needed boost on defense with JJ Watt returning from an 8-game absence. With Watt back in the lineup, I have the Texans 3 points better in my roster rankings than the Bills, so we’re getting good value with the Texans being favored by just 2.5 points at home. The Bills are also starting a first time playoff starter under center in Josh Allen. First time playoff starters are 14-32-1 ATS since 2002. 

Houston’s Deshaun Watson is in just his 2nd playoff start after losing at home to the Colts in his playoff debut last season, but even that one game of experience seems to matter, as there isn’t a similar trend for a quarterback’s second start. Watson struggled in his debut last season and could watch Josh Allen, a lesser quarterback, do the same this year. I would expect the Texans to win and it might not be close depending on how badly Allen struggles, so the Texans are worth a large bet in a game they basically just need to win to cover.

Houston Texans 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Houston -2.5

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: 2019 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Tennessee Titans (9-7) at New England Patriots (12-4)

This is a tough game to predict. If I were basing this pick solely off how these teams have played recently, the Titans would be an easy choice. Since turning to Ryan Tannehill under center following their week 6 loss in Denver, the Titans are 7-3 and have a +4.51% first down rate differential, 4th among qualifying playoff teams over that stretch. Tannehill hasn’t just been game-managing this team to victory either, as their defense has actually fallen off significantly since Tannehill took off, allowing a 37.89% first down rate over Tannehill’s 10 starts, as opposed to a 30.93% first down rate in the first 6 games of the season, in large part due to injuries. Tannehill and the offense carried this team, picking up first downs at a 42.39% rate in Tannehill’s 10 starts, as opposed to 32.69% in the first 6 games of the season, and Tannehill finished the season with a 117.5 QB rating that led the entire NFL.

I don’t expect Tannehill to be quite as good going forward, as it’s unlikely he’s suddenly become an elite quarterback in his 8th season in the league, but the Titans have plenty of talent around Tannehill on offense and any drop off from Tannehill and the offense could be compensated for by a defense that is getting healthier. They’re still without cornerback Malcolm Butler and outside linebacker Cameron Wake, but they get top cornerback Adoree Jackson back from a 5-game absence this week. Jayon Brown (2 games), Jeffery Simmons (7 games), and Jurrell Casey (2 games) are other key players who have missed time with injury and have since returned. They ranked 4th in the NFL in first down rate allowed through the first 6 games of the season and, though I wouldn’t expect them to be quite that good going forward, the arrow is pointing up on defense for the Titans with Jackson returning.

The Patriots, meanwhile, had some dominant performances early in the season and have a +5.06% first down rate differential on the season that ranks 3rd among qualifying playoff teams, but you’d have to go all the way back to week 5 to find a stretch of time in which they are better than +2% in first down rate differential when adjusted for schedule. The Titans have been better than +2% in every week since Tannehill took over. If these were normal circumstances, I would have this line calculated at New England -2, suggesting the Titans have a good chance of pulling the upset.

However, these are not normal circumstances, as Tannehill will be making his first career playoff start on the road in arguably the toughest place to play in the NFL. Quarterbacks are 14-32-1 ATS since 2002 in their first career playoff start and Tannehill has the added challenge of going into New England, where the Patriots have won 84% of games since 2001, and facing a quarterback/head coach duo that is making their 41st post-season start together. Brady is 48-19 ATS at home in his career unless he’s favored by a touchdown or more, including 6-2 ATS in the post-season. On top of that, the Patriots are 43-14 ATS since 2000 off of a loss unless they are favored by a touchdown or more. After last week’s shocking home loss to the Dolphins, the Titans are just 5-point favorites in this game.

Even the way the Patriots ended the season, statistically they had a better regular season this season than last season, when they went on to win the Super Bowl. Last year, they finished outside the top-10 in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. This year, their defense led the NFL in first down rate allowed by a wide margin, even when adjusted for schedule. They don’t have Gronk or a first round bye this year and the AFC is tougher than last year with both Kansas City and Baltimore playing at a high level, so they might not necessarily make another Super Bowl run, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they came out in the first round and looked much better than they have in weeks. I expect a particularly strong performance from their defense against a quarterback making his first career playoff start. This is a no confidence pick because the Titans could easily win this game if the Patriots look like they have in recent weeks, but I’m taking New England for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 23 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: None

2019 Regular Season Pick Results

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 NFL Wild Card Picks, NFL Picks

2019

Total Against the Spread: 130-118-8 (52.34%)

Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (76.47%)

High Confidence Picks: 18-11-1 (61.67%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 34-34-2 (50.00%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 64-48-5 (56.84%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-37-1 (48.63%)

No Confidence Picks: 31-33-2 (48.48%)

Upset Picks: 22-19 (53.66%)

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (59.74%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (61.76%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.14%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (60.66%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.47%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (61.73%)

Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.30%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 975-828-55 (53.96%)

Pick of the Week: 73-43-5 (62.40%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 466-340-23 (57.60%)

Upset Picks: 154-172-1 (47.25%)