2021 Week 1 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

The Steelers won 12 games last season, but their offense was a big problem, as they ranked 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.83%. Many are expecting them to be better on offense, after using their first round pick on running back Najee Harris and with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger another year removed from his elbow injury, but first round running backs usually aren’t a good value and it’s unclear how Roethlisberger will hold up over the course of the season, after looking better in very limited pre-season action. 

The Steelers also are likely to be noticeably worse on the offense line, having to replace four starters from a year ago with low cost options, the most promising of whom, Zach Banner, is out for the start of the season. The Steelers’ defense led them to their impressive record last season, but they lost some key players this off-season and will also be without stud defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt to begin the season due to injury. Defensive performance is also significantly less predictive than offensive performance and the Steelers likely wouldn’t be able to rely on being as dominant defensively as they were a year ago, even if they did return all of their key players. 

After ranking 11th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.46% a year ago and winning 12 games against an easy schedule, the Steelers are likely to see a steep drop off in their win total and should be underdogs of at least a touchdown in Buffalo against one of the best teams in the league. Let’s take advantage of the Steelers being a little overrated in what should be another multiscore victory for the Bills, who beat the Steelers by 11 late last season.

Buffalo Bills 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -6.5

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Washington Football Team (0-0)

The Chargers are a bit of an overrated team coming into the season. They should be better on the offensive line and in the running game this season, to complement their impressive passing offense, led by quarterback Justin Herbert, but they’re starting from a lower base point than most realize, as they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in 2020, while losing three times to teams without a winning record and not winning a single game by more than 10 points. 

The Chargers went 7-9 last season, but needed a stretch of wins by only a field goal against the Raiders, Falcons, and Broncos in weeks 14-16, before playing the Chiefs backups week 17. They could win more games this season, but it will likely take Justin Herbert taking another step forward, far from a guarantee for a player who is already coming off one of the best rookie seasons ever by a quarterback and would need to be even better for this team to take a big step forward.

Washington is a much more well rounded team, with a dominant defense and an improved offense, led by new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This line, favoring Washington by only a point, suggests the Chargers are a slightly better team, but I have Washington as the better team, favoring them by 4 points in my calculated line. They’re definitely worth a bet at Washington -1, as they would just need to win to cover and should win this game about 60-65% of the time.

Washington Football Team 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Washington -1

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

The Vikings were one of my underrated teams coming into the season, as they won 7 games last season despite a horrendous defense, which should be significantly better in 2021, with Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Anthony Barr, and Eric Kendricks returning from significant absences and veterans Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, and Everson Griffen give them a needed infusion of talent. The Vikings had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago and should be one of the better offenses again in 2021, so if their defense can be a complementary unit, they should win a significant amount of games.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting good line value with the Vikings to start the season, as they will be without linebacker Anthony Barr due to an unrelated injury to the one that cost him most of last season, as well as left tackle Christian Darrisaw, their first round pick and a replacement for their most significant offensive loss this off-season, Riley Reiff. This is still a solid team, but the Bengals aren’t going to be that bad this season, so it’s a lot to expect the Vikings to go into Cincinnati and win by more than a field goal. I’m still taking them for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

The Rams are one of the more overrated teams coming into the season. Matt Stafford obviously elevates this offense, but they still have concerns on the offensive line and in the running game, while their defense is unlikely to be as good as a year ago, losing a trio of key players in John Johnson, Michael Brockers, and Troy Hill, as well as talented defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, whose efforts earned him the head coaching job with the Chargers. They’re still a solid team, but they’re not the Super Bowl contender many see them as and could easily find themselves out of the playoffs in a loaded NFC West, facing a tougher schedule than when they went 10-6 a season ago.

However, we’re not getting a good opportunity to bet against the Rams this week because they’re facing a Bears team that is likely to be one of the worst in the league to start the season. Low upside veteran Andy Dalton will begin the season as the starting quarterback, behind a patchwork offensive line with an underwhelming group of skill position players, while their defense is far from what it used to be, especially with Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman both out for the start of the season. This line is appropriate at Los Angeles -7.5 and I’m actually going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, in the wake of the Bears’ injury issues.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

This line favors the Titans by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about equal, with the Titans possibly being the slightly higher ranked team by the oddsmakers. I think this line is off. These two teams were about even in point differential last season (+52 for the Titans vs. +43 for the Cardinals), even though the Cardinals had quarterback Kyler Murray suffer an injury down the stretch, while Titans faced a significantly easier schedule and benefited from a league best +11 turnover margin, which is a highly inconsistent metric on a year-to-year basis. 

The Cardinals finished last season 12th in first down differential at +1.39%, as opposed to 24th at -1.31% for the Titans, and they should be better this season, in Kyler Murray’s third season in the league, with Chandler Jones returning from injury and key off-season additions Rodney Hudson and JJ Watt upgrading big positions of need. The Cardinals aren’t as good at cornerback as a year ago, with Patrick Peterson signing in Minnesota and replacement Malcolm Butler retiring before the season for personal reasons, but they’re an overall better team than a year ago.

The Titans, meanwhile, made a splash addition of Julio Jones this off-season, but he’s an aging receiver on the decline and could easily not be an upgrade on departed free agent wide receiver Corey Davis, who finished last season 5th with 2.58 yards per route run. They added Bud Dupree to upgrade their pass rush, but gutted their cornerbacks in the process and overpaid a player in Dupree who is coming off of a torn ACL and who is unlikely to be as effective away from the Steelers’ talented defense. 

Add in the fact that Derrick Henry is unlikely to repeat last year’s historic season and the Titans seem likely to be worse than a year ago, while the Cardinals are likely to be better. Considering the Cardinals probably already had the edge last season, that would make the Cardinals a significantly better team. I have them 2.5 points higher in my roster rankings, making this an even line with the Titans at home. This isn’t a big bet, but I’ll happily take the field goal we’re getting in this game and will make a play on the moneyline as well.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tennessee Titans 30 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Most are expecting a bounce back year from the 49ers, who fell to 6-10 in 2020 after a series of devastating injuries depleted the roster of a 13-3 team the year prior, but I still think the 49ers are underrated, as they are starting from a higher base point than last year’s 6-10 record suggests. The 49ers finished last season 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +3.66%, as their record was largely the result of a poor turnover margin (-11, 2nd worst in the NFL), which is a highly inconsistent metric year-to-year, and a tough schedule, which gets easier this season. 

The 49ers are likely to be significantly healthier and have a significantly better turnover margin than a year ago, which should allow them to win a lot of games, against an easier schedule, starting with a matchup with one of the worst teams in the league in the Detroit Lions. The Lions already looked like one of the worst two teams in the league going into the season, their first without Matt Stafford, who they sent to the Rams in a rebuilding move this off-season, and the Lions will also be without one of their best players, left tackle Taylor Decker in this matchup, forcing rookie Penei Sewell, who was overwhelmed in the pre-season, to protect the blindside of new quarterback Jared Goff, rather than beginning his career at right tackle.

This line is high, favoring the 49ers at 8.5, but I don’t think it’s high enough and it’s likely this line would be at least double digits by mid-season, as the public has yet to realize the 49ers are one of the top teams in the league again. Their defense won’t be quite as good as 2019 because their secondary isn’t as good, but their offense could be much more explosive than 2019’s, if the trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk all stay relatively healthy, as they are now. Those 2019 49ers won 8 of their 13 regular season games by at least 9 points, as well as their two playoff victories, so they should be able to take care of business against one of the worst teams in the league. This line being over a touchdown is stopping me from making this a bigger play, but the 49ers should win with ease, even opening their season on the road.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

I have the Cowboys winning the NFC East and improving on their 6-10 record from a year ago because of their better health on offense, including the return of Dak Prescott and his top-3 offensive linemen, who all missed significant time last season, and a defense that can’t be worse than a year ago, along with a special teams unit that should remain a strength. However, that offense won’t be at their top form in week one in Prescott’s first game back, without any pre-season action due to a shoulder strain, especially since Prescott is likely to be without Zack Martin, his top returning offensive linemen, who is likely to miss this game after testing positive for COVID.

That will make for a tough time for this team against a mostly healthy Buccaneers team (Jordan Whitehead) that is one of the best in the league and in a great spot as Super Bowl champions in their home opener are 11-4-1 ATS since 2004. However, this line has moved up from 7 to 8 because of the Zack Martin news, so we’re not getting great value with Tampa Bay. My calculated line is Tampa Bay -9, so we’re not getting significant line value enough to confidently bet the Buccaneers, even with history on their side, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8

Confidence: Low