Arizona Cardinals (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Coming into the season, the Cardinals were one of my top underrated teams, as they looked like one of the most well-rounded teams in the league on paper, thanks to some key off-season additions and Kyler Murray being in his third year in the league. They have gotten off to a great start, but they might not be underrated anymore as a result. Even though the Cardinals played a very close game at home against the Vikings last week, this line still jumped from Arizona -6.5 on the early line last week to -7.5 this week, crossing a key number of seven (about 1 in 10 games are decided by exactly a touchdown).
My calculated line is still Arizona -9.5, but we’re not getting any sort of significant line value, especially since the Cardinals could be in a trap game spot against an 0-2 Jaguars team with a huge game against the Rams on deck. With that in mind, I considered the Jaguars, but I am sticking with the Cardinals for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week at least for now. With the Cardinals having three key players, DeAndre Hopkins, Devon Kennard, and Byron Murphy, seemingly legitimately questionable, it’s possible this pick will change depending on injury reports, but I don’t see myself being confident in either side either way.
Update: The Cardinals got good injury news, so I like them a little more now, even in a bad spot. This line has moved up to 8, but that doesn’t really matter. I have the healthier Cardinals as 10 point favorites.
Arizona Cardinals 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Pick against the spread: Arizona -8