2022 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

The Chargers are 6-6, but their six wins have all been close and have come by a combined 24 points, while their six losses have come by a combined 61 points, leading to a point differential of -37 that ranks just 24th in the NFL. They’re even worse than that suggests as they have benefitted from a below average schedule and they have a +4 turnover margin, tied for 5th best in the NFL, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive and takes into account strength of schedule, the Chargers rank 29th, about 6 points below average.

The Chargers came into the season with a lot of promise, but they have had a lot of problems with key players missing injury. They got talented wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury a few weeks ago and this week their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams and stud center Corey Linsley return, but they still remain without talented left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy, as would safety Derwin James, who will miss his first game of the season. Also missing their first games of the season are lesser players in defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day and right tackle Trey Pipkins.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, lost last week in San Francisco, but that was their first loss this season in nine games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa and this week the Dolphins will get back stud left tackle Terron Armstead from injury, whose absence was a big problem in last week’s loss. Even with last week’s loss taken into account, as well as the stretch they played without Tagovailoa earlier in the season, the Dolphins still rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3 points above average and 9 points ahead of the Chargers. My roster rankings also have the Dolphins as the significantly better team, giving them a 11.5-point edge, with the Dolphins heading in the opposite direction from the Chargers injury wise.

Normally I would shy away from an east coast team playing a west coast team at night, as that is historically a bad spot to bet a team against the spread, with circadian rhythms significantly benefitting the players on the west coast team, who are three hours behind the east coast team. However, in addition to the significant line value we are getting with the Dolphins as mere 3-point favorites, the Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, lacking fans in the area and, as a result, are 27-17 ATS at home, as opposed to 17-27 ATS on the road, since moving to the city in 2017. Because of that, I can confidently take the Dolphins as my Pick of the Week at -3. I would like them at -3.5 as well, but for a lesser bet.

Miami Dolphins 30 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9)

The Raiders have won three straight after a 2-7 start, but that’s not as big of a shift as you might think, as six of their seven losses came up one score, while their three recent wins have also been one score games. In total, the Raiders have played 9 of 12 games within one score this season and 10 of 12 within single digits. The difference recently is just that they have managed to win their close games, after losing so many early in the season. With so many close games on their schedule, you might think I am going away from the Raiders this week as 6-point road favorites in Los Angeles against the Rams, but I still think they’re the better side, for a few reasons. 

For one, the Rams’ current injury situation makes them one of the worst teams in the league. Already without a pair of starting offensive linemen from last year’s team after off-season departures, the Rams have since lost another three starting offensive linemen due to injury, as well as their starting quarterback Matt Stafford, his two best wide receivers, most notably Cooper Kupp, who was arguably the best receiver in the league a year ago, and their top defensive player Aaron Donald, who is also arguably the best in the league at his position. 

As injuries have piled up, the Rams have lost six straight, including four by margins that would have covered this spread, with three of those losses being at home. The Raiders are an average at best team that plays a lot of close games, but the Rams are the type of team that even the Raiders shouldn’t have too much trouble with, similar to their multi-score victories over the Texans and Broncos. Also, even though the Raiders have played a lot of games, they have played at least somewhat better in recent weeks, turning their close losses into close wins, and better health on defense is a key part of the reason why, with top cornerback Nate Hobbs and top linebacker Denzel Perryman now back in the lineup.

The Rams also can’t expect much help from their homefield advantage this week. Since moving to Los Angeles in 2016, the Rams have had a pretty limited homefield advantage, with fans supporting the road team frequently showing up in large numbers, leading to the Rams going 31-25 at home (24-29-3 ATS), as opposed to 35-23 on the road (29-27-2 ATS) sincere moving. The crowd should especially be a problem for the Rams in this game, with their season effectively over at 3-9 and with the Raiders being a former Los Angeles team that still has a lot of support in the area. I would expect the majority of fans at this game to be Raiders fans. There isn’t nearly enough here to be confident enough in the Raiders to bet on them, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as they should win this game by at least a full touchdown.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -6

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Saints are just 4-8, but they’ve played better than their record suggests, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Their biggest problem has been the turnover margin, with a league worst -14, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, when a team faces an opponent with a turnover margin that is at least 15 points better than theirs (-14 vs. +2 for Tampa Bay), the team with the significantly worse turnover margin entering the game covers the spread at a 54.1% rate.

The Saints are also getting healthier, after being among the most injury affected teams in the league to begin the season. They still remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas (9 games missed) and talented starting center Erik McCoy (3 games missed), but feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game missed), starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat (4 games missed) and James Hurst (1 game missed), stud edge defenders Cameron Jordan (1 game missed) and Marcus Davenport (2 games missed), as well as talented safety Marcus Maye (4 games missed) have all missed time this season and have since returned, while talented linebacker Pete Werner (3 games missed) and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (7 games missed) could also return this week.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, seem to be going in the opposite direction injury wise, missing stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs for the first time this season, while their defense remains without top edge defender Shaq Barrett and will likely also be without their two starting safeties Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield, which is especially a big deal because the latter is one of the best players in the league at his position. My roster rankings have the Buccaneers just a half point better than the Saints, given the current state of both teams, meaning they should be no more than field goal favorites in this game, if not favorites of less than a field goal.

This line is only 3.5, which might not seem like a big deal, but with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer and 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly, getting this line on the other side of three is very significant, especially since the Buccaneers probably deserve to be favored by less than a field goal. I see this being a relatively close game, even if the Buccaneers can win, with the two most likely outcomes being either team winning by exactly a field goal, both of which would cover this spread, so the Saints are worth a bet at +3.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

A week ago on the early line, the Chiefs were favored by a field goal in Cincinnati, but this line has since fallen down to two, a significant shift, given that one in six games are decided by three points exactly. That line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and a strange one at that, with both the Bengals and Chiefs both barely covering the spread last week, hardly results that would seem to result in a line movement. 

I don’t think the line should have moved, especially since a Kansas City win by a field goal seems like the single most likely outcome of this game, with the Chiefs being the better team and a field goal deciding about 1 out of every 6 games. The Bengals are better than their record, with three of their four losses coming by three points or fewer and a +54 point differential that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still significantly behind the Chiefs in point differential (+83) and in schedule adjusted efficiency, with the 2nd ranked Chiefs holding a 4-point edge over the 6th ranked Bengals. 

The Bengals are getting healthier, with stud interior defender DJ Reader returning a few weeks ago and top wide receiver JaMarr Chase expected back this week, but the Chiefs are about as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season and also hold a 6-point edge in my roster rankings over the Bengals. There’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, but we’re getting at least some line value with them and they seem like the better pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for me. Making it even tougher, there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because we’re technically getting some line value with them, but this 1-point spread doesn’t give us much room to work with and the most likely outcome of this game might be a push.

Detroit Lions 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 33

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +1

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line is at Dallas -10.5, which is right where my calculated line has it, favoring the Colts just slightly against the spread at this number, and there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Colts purely for pick ‘em purposes, hoping they can at least get a backdoor cover against a big spread, but I can’t be at all confident in either side in this one.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +10.5

Confidence: None

Washington Commanders at New York Giants: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)

This is one of the least interesting games to me from an against the spread perspective this week because this line, favoring the visiting Commanders by two points, is right about where it should be and there are no situational trends affecting the game. The Giants are not as good as their 7-4 record, but the public and oddsmakers seem to know that, resulting in this line being right where it should be. My calculated line says the Giants are the slightly better pick at this number, but there’s not nearly enough here to be confident in either side.

Washington Commanders 21 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +2

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

The Vikings are 9-2, but they have needed an 8-0 record in one score games to get there and they have just a +5 point differential. However, this seems to be well known, as they are only 3-point home favorites against the Jets. The Jets have a significantly better point differential (+34), but they’ve been much more defensive oriented (12th in schedule adjusted efficiency), while the Vikings have been more offensive oriented (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency), which tends to be more predictive of future success, and the Vikings hold the edge in my roster rankings as well. If anything, we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Vikings at -3, so they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes, even if there’s not enough here for the Vikings to be worth betting.

Minnesota Vikings 23 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Low