2022 Week 14 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)

The Titans are 7-5, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of the Titans’ wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

Meanwhile, the Titans’ five losses have come by a combined 67 points, leading to them having a -21 point differential, despite a positive turnover margin (+2) and a relatively easy schedule. Turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week, but schedule adjusted efficiency is and it takes into account strength of schedule and, in that metric, the Titans rank just 27th, about 5.5 points below average. Making matters worse, the Titans are very banged up right now, missing top wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, their two best edge defenders Denico Autry and Harold Landry, talented starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, and starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden.

As a result, I have the Titans about even in my roster rankings with the Jaguars, whose -14 point differential and 19th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency are both better than the Titans. Despite that, the Titans are favored by 3.5 points in this game, a bigger line than you might think, given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with about 1 in 6 being decided by exactly a field goal. The Titans are at home, but I have them just slightly favored to win this game on my calculated line, so we’re getting good enough value with the Jaguars at +3.5 for them to be worth betting.

Tennessee Titans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

The Chargers are 6-6, but their six wins have all been close and have come by a combined 24 points, while their six losses have come by a combined 61 points, leading to a point differential of -37 that ranks just 24th in the NFL. They’re even worse than that suggests as they have benefitted from a below average schedule and they have a +4 turnover margin, tied for 5th best in the NFL, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive and takes into account strength of schedule, the Chargers rank 29th, about 6 points below average.

The Chargers came into the season with a lot of promise, but they have had a lot of problems with key players missing injury. They got talented wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury a few weeks ago and this week their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams and stud center Corey Linsley return, but they still remain without talented left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy, as would safety Derwin James, who will miss his first game of the season. Also missing their first games of the season are lesser players in defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day and right tackle Trey Pipkins.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, lost last week in San Francisco, but that was their first loss this season in nine games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa and this week the Dolphins will get back stud left tackle Terron Armstead from injury, whose absence was a big problem in last week’s loss. Even with last week’s loss taken into account, as well as the stretch they played without Tagovailoa earlier in the season, the Dolphins still rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3 points above average and 9 points ahead of the Chargers. My roster rankings also have the Dolphins as the significantly better team, giving them a 11.5-point edge, with the Dolphins heading in the opposite direction from the Chargers injury wise.

Normally I would shy away from an east coast team playing a west coast team at night, as that is historically a bad spot to bet a team against the spread, with circadian rhythms significantly benefitting the players on the west coast team, who are three hours behind the east coast team. However, in addition to the significant line value we are getting with the Dolphins as mere 3-point favorites, the Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, lacking fans in the area and, as a result, are 27-17 ATS at home, as opposed to 17-27 ATS on the road, since moving to the city in 2017. Because of that, I can confidently take the Dolphins as my Pick of the Week at -3. I would like them at -3.5 as well, but for a lesser bet.

Miami Dolphins 30 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9)

The Raiders have won three straight after a 2-7 start, but that’s not as big of a shift as you might think, as six of their seven losses came up one score, while their three recent wins have also been one score games. In total, the Raiders have played 9 of 12 games within one score this season and 10 of 12 within single digits. The difference recently is just that they have managed to win their close games, after losing so many early in the season. With so many close games on their schedule, you might think I am going away from the Raiders this week as 6-point road favorites in Los Angeles against the Rams, but I still think they’re the better side, for a few reasons. 

For one, the Rams’ current injury situation makes them one of the worst teams in the league. Already without a pair of starting offensive linemen from last year’s team after off-season departures, the Rams have since lost another three starting offensive linemen due to injury, as well as their starting quarterback Matt Stafford, his two best wide receivers, most notably Cooper Kupp, who was arguably the best receiver in the league a year ago, and their top defensive player Aaron Donald, who is also arguably the best in the league at his position. 

As injuries have piled up, the Rams have lost six straight, including four by margins that would have covered this spread, with three of those losses being at home. The Raiders are an average at best team that plays a lot of close games, but the Rams are the type of team that even the Raiders shouldn’t have too much trouble with, similar to their multi-score victories over the Texans and Broncos. Also, even though the Raiders have played a lot of games, they have played at least somewhat better in recent weeks, turning their close losses into close wins, and better health on defense is a key part of the reason why, with top cornerback Nate Hobbs and top linebacker Denzel Perryman now back in the lineup.

The Rams also can’t expect much help from their homefield advantage this week. Since moving to Los Angeles in 2016, the Rams have had a pretty limited homefield advantage, with fans supporting the road team frequently showing up in large numbers, leading to the Rams going 31-25 at home (24-29-3 ATS), as opposed to 35-23 on the road (29-27-2 ATS) sincere moving. The crowd should especially be a problem for the Rams in this game, with their season effectively over at 3-9 and with the Raiders being a former Los Angeles team that still has a lot of support in the area. I would expect the majority of fans at this game to be Raiders fans. There isn’t nearly enough here to be confident enough in the Raiders to bet on them, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as they should win this game by at least a full touchdown.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -6

Confidence: Low