2022 Week 5 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

Expected by many to be the worst team in the league, the Bears somewhat surprisingly have a couple wins at 2-2, but if you look at how they got those wins, it’s not hard to see how they could still be the worst team in the league going forward. In both of their wins, the Bears have lost the first down rate and yards per play battle, by 0.41% and 1.30 against the 49ers and by 1.39% and 0.08 against the Texans. Meanwhile, their loss to the Packers was not competitive, with the Bears losing the first down rate and yards per play battle by 10.85% and 0.71 respectively, while their other loss came to a mediocre Giants team in a game in which the Bears lost the first down rate battle by 7.94% and the yards per play battle by 0.39. 

In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards, the Bears rank 29th, with well below average marks on offense (28th) and defense (22nd). They’re not quite the worst team in the league in that metric, but my roster rankings do have them as the worst team in the league, by a pretty significant margin, especially now that their top offensive lineman Cody Whitehair is out with injury. I don’t think this line, which has the Bears as just 7.5 point underdogs in Minnesota, fully takes into account how bad the Bears are.

This line may also underrate the Vikings too. The Vikings are 3-1, with their only loss coming to the 4-0 Eagles, and have a better offensive coaching staff and a much healthier defense than the past couple seasons. My roster rankings have the Vikings about 5 points above average and about 16 points above the dead last ranked Bears. Schedule adjusted efficiency also has a big gap between these two teams, giving the Vikings the edge by 12 points. This is a pretty big line, given that about half of games are decided by seven points or less, but, any way you look at it, the Vikings should be favored by significantly more than 7.5 points at home against the Bears, at least double digits, possibly multiple touchdowns, given the gap between these two teams. This is my pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns lost last week in Atlanta, but that wasn’t that surprising as the Falcons are a competitive, if underwhelming team and the Browns were missing key players on defense, most notably Myles Garrett, arguably the best edge defender in the league. Garrett will be back this week for the Browns, who, despite last week’s loss, still rank 5th in offensive efficiency and have an offense that ranks significantly above average in my roster rankings, due to their offensive line, running game, and efficient quarterback play. 

The Browns haven’t faced that tough of a schedule, but they could easily be 4-0 right now if Garrett had played last week and if they had recovered an onside kick against the Jets and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which takes into account their easy schedule, but not Garrett’s absence, the Browns rank 13th, despite last week’s loss. Despite that, the Browns are 2-point home underdogs against the Chargers, who rank just 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

Four games is a small sample size and the Chargers are more talented than their rank in schedule adjusted efficiency suggests, but they’ve also had significant injury problems this season that have led to them not being as good as expected. Center Corey Linsley and cornerback JC Jackson returned last week, but left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge defender Joey Bosa took their place on the injured list, while wide receiver Keenan Allen has been out since getting hurt during their week 1 game. 

Those five aforementioned players are five of their most important and, missing what they’re missing, I have the Chargers about a point behind the Browns in my roster rankings, in addition to being 6.5 points behind them in schedule adjusted efficiency. Given that, the Browns should be favored by at least a field goal at home, so we’re getting good line value with them as home underdogs, even if only by a couple points. The Browns are worth a significant bet this week, both against the spread and on the money line.

Cleveland Browns 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)

The Dolphins are 3-1, with their only loss coming on a short week last week in Cincinnati after beginning the year as the last undefeated AFC team, but they haven’t been as good as that suggests, as one of their wins came in a game against the Patriots in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but were become even in first down rate and yards per play, which are more predictive, while their other two wins came against teams in the Ravens and Bills who were dealing with significant injury problems. Even not taking those injury problems into account, the Dolphins rank just 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency, less than one point above average.

The Jets, meanwhile, are 2-2 and, while they’re not as good as their record, they may be underrated, as their decent record is widely regarded as not indicative of their level of play. They do rank just 26th in schedule adjusted overall efficiency, but that’s mostly because of an offense that ranks 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which I expect to improve with quarterback Zach Wilson returning from injury last week and left tackle Duane Brown returning this week. Their defense is significantly improved over last year’s dead last ranked unit, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency this season, as a result of off-season additions and key players returning from injury, while their special teams remain dominant, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, after ranking 2nd last season as well.

The Jets shouldn’t be getting more than a field goal at home against a middling Dolphins team that is starting a backup quarterback, even if Teddy Bridgewater is unlikely to be a significant dropoff from injured Tua Tagovailoa. This line might not seem that high at 3.5, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, with 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal, and, largely as a result of that, 3.5-point underdogs cover the spread more than any other number, covering at a 53.0% rate all-time, which is actually profitable by itself. My calculated line is Jets -1, so we’re getting great line value with the host. This is one of my highest confidence picks of the week and I like the money line as well.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 19 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)

The Bills won a close game over the Ravens last week, but that was an anomaly for this team over the past two seasons, as they previously were 0-7 in one-score games since the start of last season, including playoffs. The flip side of that is all 14 of their wins over the past two seasons, including playoffs, came by 12 points or more, prior to last week’s 3-point victory in Baltimore. Even with last week’s win taken into account, the Bills have an average margin of victory of 22.1 points per game, leading to them ranking 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency in each of the past two seasons.

That suggests this should be another blowout for the Bills, at home against a Steelers team with a mediocre offense and a defense that is not nearly as good without TJ Watt. The Steelers are just 1-3, rank 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, and could be 0-4 if they didn’t win a game week one in which the Bengals turned the ball over five times and missed two makeable game winning kicks, also the only game of the season in which Watt played. That being said, this line is all the way up to 14 and this game actually could be closer than people think, for a couple reasons.

For one, the Bills are not nearly at full strength due to injury. Already without arguably their two best defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, they’ll be without their third star defensive back Jordan Poyer this week, while tight end Dawson Knox and slot receiver Jamison Crowder are out and every down linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are highly questionable. 

The Bills are also in a tough spot with a much bigger game against the Chiefs on deck, with favorites of more than a touchdown covering at just a 42% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage 50% higher than their current opponent, which is likely to be the case here. I can’t take the Steelers with any confidence unless all of the questionable Bills are out, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way, with the Bills banged up and likely to overlook this game, in between a big win against the Ravens and a game against the Chiefs next week.

Buffalo Bills 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +14

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

This is one of the more surprising lines of the week, with the Panthers going from being just 3-point home underdogs against the 49ers on the early line last week to now 6.5-point home underdogs, following the 49ers’ 15-point home victory over the Rams and the Panthers 10-point home loss to the Cardinals last week. I usually like to go against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and that is the case here. My calculated line has the 49ers as no better than field goal favorites and it’s really hard to justify the 49ers as favorites of this many points on the road against a good defense, given how much the 49ers’ offense is struggling.

Through the first four games of the season, the 49ers rank 28th in first down rate and 30th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and my roster rankings have them significantly below average on offense as well. They still have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but their running back group is depleted by injury and their offensive line lost a trio of starters this off-season and now is without Trent Williams, who will be filled in for this week by third stringer Jaylon Moore, after backup Colton McKivitz played admirably in their first game without Williams last week, before suffering an injury of his own.

The Panthers’ defense, meanwhile, ranks 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, a year after finishing the 2021 season ranked 4th, so they should cause problems for this 49ers’ offense. The Panthers obviously have their own offensive issues, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while the 49ers rank 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, which is a bigger mismatch than the 49ers’ offense against the Panthers’ defense, especially since the 49ers could be getting back could be getting Jimmie Ward and Jason Verrett back from injury, but it’s still hard to justify the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites on the road in what should be a low scoring game. I like the Panthers a good amount this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. London

The Giants are 3-1, but they haven’t been overly impressive, with all of their wins being close and their schedule being one of the easiest in the league thus far. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Giants rank just 24th, suggesting their record is largely the result of their level of competition. This week, the Giants’ level of competition jumps significantly, with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who are also 3-1, but have been more impressive in doing so, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while also holding a significant edge in my roster rankings. This is a neutral site game in London, but the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage in international games, with favorites covering at 65% rate all-time. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Packers, as the public and oddsmakers don’t believe in the Giants either, leading to the Packers being favored by 8 points on a neutral field. My roster rankings give the Packers a 10-point edge, so we’re getting some line value with them even at -8, but I’m not sure it’s quite enough for them to be worth betting, even in a good spot. That would change if Leonard Williams missed another game for the Giants, but it seems like he’s more likely than not to return from a 2-game absence this week, which would be a big re-addition for a struggling Giants defense. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I would change my mind if Williams didn’t play.

Update: Williams is out, so I am increasing the confidence on this game.

Green Bay Packers 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

Normally I like to take non-divisional home favorites on Thursdays, as teams tend to be at a serious disadvantage if they have to travel on the road to face a non-divisional opponent that is comparable to or better than them. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 64.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, including 65.1% when favored by more than a field goal. Unfortunately, we’re getting line value with the visitor in this game, which offsets that. This line favored the Broncos by just 2.5 points on the early line last week, but that has since shifted to 3.5, a bigger shift than you might think, given that 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The shift is probably because the Colts because to the Titans and had two of their most important players get injured, with every down linebacker Shaq Leonard out and feature back Jonathan Taylor questionable, but Leonard has been out for most of the season anyway and Taylor seems more likely than not to suit up, even if he’s not at full strength. The Broncos also had key players go down with injury last week, losing feature back Javonte Williams and top edge defender Randy Gregory, a big loss for a Broncos team that had already gotten off to an underwhelming start to the season.

The Broncos are 2-2, but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and have especially struggled on offense, ranking 31st in first down rate, a concern because offensive performance tends to be significantly more predictive than defensive or special teams performance. Their offense could get better going forward as new quarterback Russell Wilson and new offensive minded head coach Nathaniel Hackett develop better chemistry, but the loss of Williams on an already injury plagued offensive unit doesn’t help matters.

In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offense more heavily and takes into account strength of schedule, the Broncos enter this game ranked 31st in the NFL, 6.5 points below average, significantly behind the Colts, who rank a middling 17th. We’re only four games into the season, which is a small sample size, and my roster rankings have a much smaller gap between these two teams, giving the Colts a one point edge, but it’s hard to see how the Broncos deserve to be 3.5-point favorites, even in a good spot on a short week and even if Jonathan Taylor ends up not playing for the Colts. The Colts aren’t bettable this week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at +3.5, though I would drop all confidence on them if Taylor ultimately did get ruled out.

Update: Taylor has been ruled out, despite saying earlier this week that he expected to play. I’m still on the Colts, but for no confidence. These two teams are about even with the Colts missing Taylor, so in a normal circumstance, the +3.5 would still be intriguing, but this is also a tough spot for the Colts on a short week.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: None