2023 NFL Season Previews

2023 NFL Season Previews

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews
AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
Buffalo Bills* 12-5Cincinnati Bengals* 13-4Jacksonville Jaguars* 9-8Kansas City Chiefs* 14-3
Miami Dolphins 10-7Cleveland Browns* 12-5Tennessee Titans 6-11Los Angeles Chargers* 11-6
New York Jets 9-8Baltimore Ravens* 12-5Indianapolis Colts 6-11Denver Broncos 6-11
New England Patriots 7-10Pittsburgh Steelers 8-9Houston Texans 6-11Las Vegas Raiders 5-12
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Philadelphia Eagles* 14-3Detroit Lions* 10-7New Orleans Saints* 11-6San Francisco 49ers* 12-5
Dallas Cowboys* 11-6Green Bay Packers 7-10Atlanta Falcons* 8-9Seattle Seahawks* 8-9
New York Giants 7-10Chicago Bears 7-10Carolina Panthers 7-10Los Angeles Rams 5-12
Washington Commanders 5-12Minnesota Vikings 6-11Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-11Arizona Cardinals 2-15

*=playoff qualifer

AFC Wild Card Round

#2 Cincinnati Bengals over #7 Los Angeles Chargers

#3 Buffalo Bills over #6 Baltimore Ravens

#5 Cleveland Browns over #4 Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC Wild Card Round

#2 San Francisco 49ers over #7 Atlanta Falcons

#3 New Orleans Saints over #6 Seattle Seahawks

#5 Dallas Cowboys over #4 Detroit Lions

AFC Divisional Round

#1 Kansas City Chiefs over #5 Cleveland Browns

#2 Cincinnati Bengals over #3 Buffalo Bills

NFC Divisional Round

#1 Philadelphia Eagles over #5 Dallas Cowboys

#2 San Francisco 49ers over #3 New Orleans Saints

AFC Championship

#2 Cincinnati Bengals over #1 Kansas City Chiefs

NFC Championship

#2 San Francisco 49ers over #1 Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl

Cincinnati Bengals over San Francisco 49ers

Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterbacks

For 17 seasons from 2000-2016, the Bills didn’t qualify for the post-season once, one of the longest post-season droughts in the modern era. They made it in 2017, but they barely snuck in with a record of 9-7 and their 21st ranked DVOA suggested they were lucky to even win that many games, so the Bills knew they had to get better long-term. The Bills have made a bunch of moves to improve this roster since then, but their biggest decision was taking a shot on quarterback Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

The quarterback position had plagued the Bills for years, with 16 different starting quarterbacks over their 17-year post-season drought, including a pair of first round busts who never amounted to anything (JP Losman and EJ Manuel), but the Bills actually had a decent veteran option in Tyrod Taylor at the time of the Josh Allen selection and it was a big risk for the Bills to give up picks to trade up to select Allen 7th overall, given how raw he was as a prospect. Allen had the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but didn’t show it consistently at the collegiate level, posting mediocre stats on a mediocre team at the University of Wyoming.

As a rookie, Allen showed his physical tools, but also his concerning accuracy, rushing for 7.09 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 89 carries, but completing just 52.8% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and posting just a 58.0 PFF grade as a passer, on a Bills team that took a step backwards from their post-season appearance the year before, finishing with a 6-10 record and a 28th ranked DVOA. 

However, the Bills got better around the quarterback the following off-season and, while Allen still had his share of struggles, he showed significant progress as a passer in year two in 2019, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and posting a 61.9 PFF grade as a passer, while also averaging a 4.68 YPC average and 9 touchdowns on 109 carries, en route to leading the Bills to a 13th ranked finish in DVOA their best record since 1999 at 10-6, securing the team their second playoff appearance in three seasons.

From there, things only got better for the Bills. The team they had spent two decades looking up at in the standings and consistently losing to head-to-head, the New England Patriots, lost their long-time franchise quarterback Tom Brady during the 2020 off-season and, at the same time, Josh Allen broke out as a legitimate franchise quarterback for the Bills in year three. In three seasons since, Allen has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 108 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, with 5.59 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 348 carries, and overall PFF grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, while the Bills have won the division three straight times and have gone a combined 37-12 in the regular season, the second best record in the league over that stretch, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. In terms of DVOA, the Bills have ranked 4th, 2nd, and 1st over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately, for the Bills, this regular season success hasn’t translated to the post-season yet, as the Bills have lost before the Super Bowl in all three seasons, twice to the Chiefs and last season to the Bengals, who have emerged as the other two powerhouses in the AFC at the same time as the Bills. The Bills have a similarly strong roster this season as they have had in the past three seasons and Josh Allen remains an elite quarterback in his prime (age 27 seasons), so the Bills should still be considered among the best teams in the conference, but their conference and division have both gotten significantly better since last season, which hurts their chances of making it out of the AFC and playing in their first Super Bowl in three decades.

Obviously losing Josh Allen for an extended period of time would hurt their chances significantly of even making the post-season, regardless of who was backing him up, but even as far as backup quarterbacks go, the Bills have pretty mediocre ones with veteran journeymen Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley expected to compete for the #2 job behind Josh Allen. Barkley has been with the Bills for years, first joining the team in 2018, and he knows the playbook well, but he has just one start and 97 pass attempts in his tenure with the Bills and the 10-year veteran has a career QB rating of just 66.6 in 7 career starts, while Kyle Allen has a career QB rating of just 82.2 in 19 career starts. Josh Allen’s presence obviously makes this an enviable quarterback room and he hasn’t missed a start with injury in the past four seasons, despite taking more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, but it would be a big concern if Allen did suffer an injury that caused him to miss a significant amount of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from Josh Allen, probably the biggest addition the Bills have made to turn this franchise around is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired from Minnesota for a first round pick during the 2020 off-season. That coincides with when Josh Allen and the Bills really took off as a team and, while Diggs doesn’t deserve all the credit, he has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span, with a 2.29 yards per route run average and slash lines of 127/1535/8, 103/1225/10, and 108/1429/11. 

Diggs wasn’t as productive early in his career in Minnesota, but that was in large part because the Vikings were a much run-heavier offense than the Bills. Including his time in Minnesota, Diggs’ career yards per route run average is 2.12 and he’s exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 80 and a career best 90.1 grade in 2022. Diggs is now heading into his age 30 season and will probably start to decline soon, but even if he drops off a little, he should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023.

The rest of this receiving corps is a bit of a concern though. When the Bills first acquired Diggs, they had other useful receivers in Cole Beasley and John Brown, but those veterans declined and are no longer with the team and the Bills haven’t really found good replacements. Gabe Davis, a 4th round pick in 2020, was given every opportunity to have a big year opposite Diggs in 2022, after averaging 1.29 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.62 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, but Davis didn’t make the most of that, falling back to 1.43 yards per route run and only catching 51.6% of his 93 targets. 

Davis did average 17.4 yards per catch and his 48/836/7 slash line wasn’t bad overall, but he had 3/171/2 of that in one game and was very inconsistent throughout the year, falling below 40 receiving yards 8 times in 15 games and catching 3 of fewer passes 10 times, which kept this offense from it’s highest potential. Meanwhile, slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie was even worse, with just a 42/423/4 slash line on 65 targets and 1.10 yards per route run, while tight end Dawson Knox had just a 48/517/6 slash line also on 65 targets, also with 1.10 yards per route run.

The Bills didn’t really do much to improve this group this off-season, at least in the short-term. Davis looks likely to be locked into the #2 receiver job, without any real competition added, and the Bills will hope he can take a step forward, still only in his age 24 season, which is at least a possibility, even if it might not be a strong one. McKenzie is gone, but the veteran options they signed to potentially replace him, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, are both underwhelming, which likely means Khalil Shakir, who averaged just 1.14 yards per route run in limited action as a 5th round rookie in 2022, and Justin Shorter, a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, will also compete for playing time behind DIggs and Davis. 

Harty has flashed potential with 2.05 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent has never gotten consistent playing time, leading to him having just 64 career catches, and at 5-6 170 it’s hard to see him ever being effective as anything more than a situational player. Sherfield, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 30 catches in a season and a total of 67 catches in his career. Whoever wins the #3 receiver job will almost definitely struggle in that role and it’s very possible the Bills will mix and match their options depending on the situation to try to get the most out of this underwhelming group.

The one big addition the Bills made to this group this off-season was using their first round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was arguably the best receiving tight end in the draft. With Dawson Knox still being on the team and at least being a decent, if unspectacular tight end option (1.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2019), the Bills will probably use a lot more two-tight end sets this season to offset their lack of depth at the wide receiver position, with Kincaid likely to spend a lot of the year as essentially a big slot receiver option at 6-4 246. However, rookie tight ends rarely make a big impact in year one and it’s unlikely Kincaid will be the consistent #2 option that the Bills lacked last season. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, especially with #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs elevating this group significantly by himself, but there are concerns with this group after Diggs.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Over the past two seasons respectively, the Bills have ranked 6th in yards per carry with 4.79 and 2nd in yards per carry with 5.19, but much of that is because of Josh Allen’s dominance on the ground, averaging 6.20 YPC on 246 carries. Lead back Devin Singletary averaged 4.63 YPC on 365 carries over that stretch, but he benefited significantly from defenses worrying about Josh Allen running or Josh Allen throwing it deep, making life much easier for Bills running backs, and the Bills felt they could do better than him this off-season, letting him sign with the Texans on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. Singletary also played heavily in passing situations, but was highly inefficient, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run and 5.03 yards per target in his four seasons in Buffalo.

To replace Singletary, the Bills signed ex-Patriots running back Damien Harris to a 1-year, 1.77 million dollar deal and they will give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick James Cook, who impressed in limited action as a rookie, averaging 5.70 YPC on 89 carries and 1.43 yards per route run as a pass catcher. Harris had a solid 4.66 YPC average with 20 touchdowns on 449 carries in his four seasons in New England, who selected him in the 3rd round in 2019, and he figures to have a significant role as an early down back in Buffalo, but Cook also figures to have a significant early down role, in addition to being their primary passing down back, with Harris averaging 1.10 yards per route run for his career, with just 40 catches in 38 career games. 

Harris and Cook figure to be a good running back tandem, with Cook having the potential for a big breakout year in his second season in the league, even if he isn’t as efficient as he was a year ago and even if he splits carries with Harris. On top of that, the Bills have good depth, signing veteran Latavius Murray to be their 3rd running back. Murray is going into his age 33 season, might not have much left in the tank, and only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average in the passing game, but Murray has averaged 4.22 YPC on 1,481 carries a in 10 seasons in the league, including 4.39 YPC on 160 carries just last season, so you could do a lot worse as your #3 back and he should be able to fill in at least a few carries per game if needed. This is a pretty deep backfield and their likely top back James Cook has the potential for a big year in year two.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this Bills’ offense last season was their offensive line, as they ranked 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 28th in team run blocking grade, and the guard position was particularly a problem. Left guard Rodger Saffold made every start, but finished with just a 43.7 PFF grade and, while right guard Ryan Bates was better with a 61.8 PFF grade, he’s an underwhelming starting option as a former undrafted free agent who had only made four nondescript starts in four seasons in the league prior to last season.

To upgrade the guard position, the Bills cut Saffold, signed Connor McGovern and David Edwards as veteran options, and then used a 2nd round pick on Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence. Those three will compete for the two starting spots with Bates and, while all four options have their problems, this should be a better position group by default than a year ago. Torrence has the most upside of the bunch and could wind up being the best guard from this draft when all is said and done, but he could have some growing pains in year one. Edwards had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while making 31 total starts, and he is only in his age 26 season, but concussion limited him to just 4 starts last season and, at one point, seemed to threaten his career. 

Edwards and Torrence are probably their best two options, but they will have to compete for the job, given that the Bills’ other options have some potential too. McGovern has made 29 starts over the past 3 seasons, went in the 3rd round in 2019, and had a 61.7 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2020 and 68.7 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2021, but that fell to 52.2 in 15 starts in 2022 in the most action of his career. He’s only in his age 26 season though, so there’s still some potential there. Bates, as I mentioned, is a former undrafted free agent with a limited history of starting and probably doesn’t have a high upside, but he was at least serviceable a year ago and potentially could do that again. They have a good chance to find a couple at least decent starters out of these four.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness last season, with Spencer Brown (14 starts) and David Quessenberry (3 starts) finishing with PFF grades of 51.4 and 59.3 respectively last season. The Bills did add veteran journeyman Brandon Shell to the mix this off-season and he’s been a capable starter for most of his career and could be an option for the Bills this season, but he’s also going into his age 31 season and has never exceeded 14 starts in a season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option, even if he could be an upgrade by default over what they got at the position last season. 

Fortunately, the Bills could get bounce back years from either Brown or Quessenberry. Brown was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 62.6 PFF grade in 10 starts as a rookie, before regressing in year two, and he easily could bounce back at least to his rookie year form in his third season in the league in 2023. Quessenberry, meanwhile, had a 80.6 PFF grade as a 17-game starter in 2021, but he is also a complete one-year wonder who has just 10 career starts and a career high 61.7 PFF grade for a season aside from his 2021 campaign. Now going into his age 33 season, it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, but he could at least be better in 2023 than he was in 2022.

At center and left tackle respectively, veterans Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins are locked into starting roles again this season. Morse has been a solid starter throughout his 8-year career, making 109 total starts and exceeding 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, but his 61.4 PFF grade in 2022 was a career worst and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining, in which case he would likely end up as a below average starter, even if only slightly.

Dawkins is the best of the bunch, making 89 starts in six seasons in the league, since going in the second round in 2017, and finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 69.9, 73.4, 78.1, 77.5, and 73.5 in those six seasons respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Dawkins should remain an above average starting option in 2023. This offensive line will probably be better than a year ago, but this is still an underwhelming group overall, even with Dion Dawkins elevating this group by himself.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to their impressive offense, which ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA last season, the Bills also had a strong defense in 2022, ranking 4th in defensive DVOA. It’s much tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistently great on offense and defensive performance is much less predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but there are reasons that the Bills have a better chance to remain a high-level defense than most teams would. 

For one, the Bills also had an elite defense in 2021, ranking 1st in defensive DVOA, so last year wasn’t a fluke. The Bills also are bringing back most of their key players from a year ago, with 17 of their top-18 in terms of snaps played last season still on the team this season. The Bills also added some key players in free agency this off-season and should be better at some positions than they were a year ago and they should be healthier than a year ago, when they actually had the 2nd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense, excelling defensively despite several key absences.

One position group that should be better than a year ago is the edge defender group. Not only will they likely get a healthier year out of top edge defender Von Miller, who was limited to 450 snaps played in 11 games by injury last season, but they also added veteran Leonard Floyd in free agency on a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal to give them even more depth at the position. With 2021 1st round pick Greg Rousseau, 2020 2nd round pick AJ Epenesa, and 2021 2nd round pick Boogie Basham also in the mix, the Bills have a very deep group at this position.

If healthy, Von Miller has a good chance to remain the best of the bunch. There is some concern with Miller being in his age 34 season and coming off of a major injury, but the future Hall of Famer has surpassed a 79 grade on PFF in all 12 seasons in the league, with a whopping eight seasons over 90, and he didn’t show any real signs of decline before his injury last season, with a 85.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, not far off from his career pass rush stats of 123.5 sacks, 133 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate in 162 career games. 

Between his age and his significant injury, there’s a good chance Miller declines at least somewhat in 2023, but he’s declining from such a high level that he has a good chance to remain one of the better players in the league at his position, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past, and the Bills should benefit from having him likely be more available than he was a year ago, even if it’s possible he isn’t quite ready to return in week 1.

If Miller isn’t the Bills’ top edge defender this season, it will probably have more to do with the performance of Greg Rousseau in his third season in the league than Miller declining significantly. Rousseau has been limited to snap counts of 531 and 463 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but that was partially because he missed four games with injury in 2023 and he’s impressed when on the field, with a 70.2 PFF grade as a rookie and then a 83.6 PFF grade in year two, when he had 8 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate, despite his limited playing time. He probably won’t get a ton of playing time in 2023, even if he does continue improving, just because this is a very deep position, but the first round pick has a ton of upside and his third season in the league could end up being his best year yet.

Basham and Epenesa could also take a step forward in 2023, though they don’t nearly have the upside that Rousseau has. Basham has only played 589 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league in a very deep position group, but he’s received decent grades of 62.2 and 66.4 from PFF and could take a step forward and/or see more playing time in his third season in the league in 2023. Epenesa is in a pretty similar situation, having only played 332 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and posting mostly middling grades, but having the upside to take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season, making him actually a year younger than Basham, even though Basham was drafted the year after Epenesa.

The veteran Floyd came relatively cheap in free agency, but he should have a role even in this deep position group and he was a good value. Floyd has averaged 895 snaps played per season over the past five seasons and has 47.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 104 games in seven seasons in the league, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. Last season, he had a 65.7 PFF grade across 932 snaps with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and 11.2% pressure rate. He’s in his age 31 season now, but he also figures to see his snap count cut probably by about half in Buffalo, which should keep him fresher and allow him to be more efficient as he ages, so he should still be a useful part of their edge defender rotation, barring an unexpected massive drop off. 

Floyd’s presence will likely force veteran Shaq Lawson off the roster, just purely in a numbers game, but he wasn’t bad with a 61.8 PFF grade on 467 snaps last season and he’s mostly been a useful rotational edge defender in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, while playing an average of 489 snaps per season, so, even if he’s unlikely to make their final roster, he’s still good insurance to have if someone gets hurt between now and the start of the season. This is arguably the best edge defender group in the league, with high level talent in Von Miller and Greg Rousseau, as well as great depth. 

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Bills bring back their top-4 in terms of snaps played last season, DaQuan Jones (643 snaps), Ed Oliver (526 snaps), Tim Settle (372 snaps), and Jordan Phillips (347 snaps). Jones and Oliver figure to remain the starters after solid seasons in which they had PFF grades of 72.6 and 68.5 respectively. That wasn’t out of the ordinary for those two either. Jones has played an average of 630 snaps per season over the past eight seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He’s at his best against the run, but also has a decent 6.1% pressure rate for his career. The concern with him is he’s going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off somewhat in 2023, he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starting option.

Ed Oliver, meanwhile, has been inconsistent against the run in four seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019, but he’s consistently been an above average pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 62 career games, and he’s coming off of a career best 68.7 grade against the run in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starting option with above average interior pass rush ability.

The Bills depth options were underwhelming last season, with Settle and Phillips finishing with PFF grades of 53.8 and 52.2 respectively, but the Bills did make an addition at this position this off-season that should improve their depth, with veteran Poona Ford coming over from the Seahawks on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal, which could be a steal. Ford comes cheap because he finished last season with a career worst 56.2 PFF grade on 642 snaps, but the 2018 undrafted free agent had a 90.3 PFF grade on 231 snaps as a rookie, a 73.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 2019, a 81.9 PFF grade on 670 snaps in 2020, and a 73.0 PFF grade on 802 snaps in 2021, so he has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 28 season, especially since he is unlikely to have to play the same snap count as he did in his final seasons in Seattle. 

Throughout his career, Ford has been at his best against the run, but he also has a solid 6.4% pressure rate for his career and should be a useful, well-rounded reserve for this team. The Bills also could get a better year out of Tim Settle, who exceeded 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to joining the Bills last off-season. He only averaged 252 snaps per game in those four seasons, but the Bills won’t need much more than that from him in 2023 and, still only in his age 26 season, the 2018 5th round pick has obvious bounce back potential. 

Jordan Phillips is probably the worst of the bunch, as he’s been below 60 on PFF in all but one of his eight seasons in the league and is now heading into his age 31 season, but the Bills won’t need much, if anything from him in 2023 with Ford being added and, as mediocre as he’s been overall in his career, he does have a decent 7.4% career pressure rate, with his poor run defense usually being the cause of his mediocre overall grades. This is a pretty solid position group overall, one that should have better play from their reserves than they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one key player from last year’s defense that the Bills didn’t retain this off-season is linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds had a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in 13 games and there’s no way around the fact that losing him is a big deal, but this is still a very talented defense even without him, with likely better health than a year ago and the additions of Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford on the defensive line. Even the Bills’ linebacking corps is still in good shape without Edmunds, with other top linebacker Matt Milano (73.7 PFF grade across 946 snaps) still on the roster and a pair of intriguing young players who will compete to replace Edmunds, 2022 3rd round pick Terrel Bernard, who flashed some potential in very limited action as a rookie (111 snaps), and this year’s 3rd round pick, Tulane’s Dorian Williams.

Both Bernard and Williams are raw and are obviously projections to larger roles and, even if they do pan out, they are highly unlikely to be as good as Edmunds was a year ago, but they’re not bad options either and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if whoever wins that position battle ended up being at least a capable starter. Milano, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in three of the past five seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022, and he’s averaged 55.5 snaps per game in those five seasons, including 60.1 snaps per game over the past two seasons, so he’s more than capable of being a top every down linebacker, still only in his age 28 season.

The Bills also still have Tyrel Dodson, who was technically their third linebacker a year ago, playing 220 snaps in just 8 games, but he struggled mightily with a 48.4 PFF grade and the 2019 undrafted free agent has never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF for a season, while playing just 471 snaps total in his career, so he’s probably not a realistic starting option, even with Edmunds gone. Losing Tremaine Edmunds obviously hurts, but, even without him, this is not a bad linebacking corps and the Bills have more than enough talent at other positions to make up for the loss of Edmunds.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group that should benefit most from being healthier this season is the Bills’ secondary, which saw talented safety Micah Hyde go down for the season in week 2 and only got 307 snaps in six games out of expected top cornerback Tre’Davious White, who did not look like himself after a late season return from a torn ACL suffered late in the 2021 season, finishing the 2022 season with just a 61.9 PFF grade in his limited action. 

Hyde will almost definitely play more games in 2023 than a year ago and he had finished above 75 on PFF in four of his previous five seasons prior to the injury, so his return will be very much welcome, even if he could start to decline, now in his age 33 season. Meanwhile, White has a great chance to bounce back, another year removed from the injury, still only in his age 28 season, with three seasons over 75 in coverage grade on PFF in his five seasons in the league prior to 2022.

Hyde will start next to Jordan Poyer, also a long-time above average safety, who is also getting up there in age, in his age 32 season. Poyer could easily start declining this season, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 74.2, 75.2, 78.2, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively, with just five games missed over that stretch, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he starts declining this season, he’s declining from a high enough level that he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive decline.

At cornerback, in addition to likely a healthier year out of Tre’Davious White, the Bills should also get a better year out of Kaiir Elam, who was a first round pick in 2022, but struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade on 477 rookie year snaps, failing to secure a consistent starting role (six starts), despite the absence of White. Elam has the potential to be a lot better in year two though and is probably the favorite to start opposite White. 

The Bills also have a solid slot cornerback in Taron Johnson, who has exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 68.3 PFF grade on a career high 969 snaps in 2022. Johnson can play outside, in addition to on the slot, which he did more than ever last season, so he’s also a candidate to start next to White, with Elam coming in as the third cornerback when Johnson moves to the slot, but Johnson is at his best on the slot and the Bills would probably prefer to let him focus on that.

With Hyde and White expected to be healthier, Damar Hamlin (845 snaps) and Dane Johnson (830 snaps) are expected to move back to reserve roles in 2023. Hamlin was actually decent with a 61.4 PFF grade last season, before his season ended in scary fashion when he collapsed during the Bills’ week 17 game against the Bengals, and assuming he can make a full recovery, the 2021 6th round pick is a solid reserve option. In addition to last season’s decent performance in a starting role, Hamlin also flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in 2021, albeit on just 50 snaps.

Dane Johnson, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.5 PFF grade in his extended action last season and, as a result, he is probably not a real candidate to compete with Elam and Taron Johnson for a top-3 job, but the 2020 7th round pick was decent depth on snap counts of 193 and 482 in his first two seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve cornerback. The Bills also have 2022 6th round pick Christian Benford, who saw 363 rookie year snaps and, at times, played ahead of the much higher drafted Kaiir Elam, but Benford too struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade and would be best as a reserve option as well. This secondary should be much better than a year ago with White and Hyde likely to be healthier and Kaiir Elam expected to be better in his second season in the league. This is a deep and talented group overall.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Bills have been one of the better teams in the league over the past three seasons, finishing in the top-4 in DVOA in all three seasons, including back-to-back seasons in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. They have a good chance to do that again in 2023, with minimal key losses on either side of the ball this off-season. Losing Tremaine Edmunds hurts their defense, but they should be much healthier on that side of the ball this season, with Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tre’Davious White being the most noteworthy players who will almost definitely be more available this season, and they added a pair of key rotational players on the defensive line in Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford, so they could easily remain a top defense in 2023, even without Edmunds. 

The Bills haven’t broken through and won or even made the Super Bowl yet, and the AFC is even better this year, so they will have a tough path out to that elusive Super Bowl appearance, but they have as good of a chance as any team to win the AFC and, if they do that, they would almost definitely be favored in the Super Bowl over any team in the weaker NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East

New England Patriots 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

During the 19 seasons Tom Brady spent as the starter in New England from 2001-2019, the Patriots had unparalleled success, winning 36 more regular season games, 15 more post-season games, and 4 more Super Bowls than any team during that stretch, winning the ultimate prize a whopping 6 times total. However, the Patriots’ drafts got increasingly worse during Brady’s final seasons in New England and, while they continued to have success in the win column, including a Super Bowl victory during the 2018 season, they did it with increasingly aging and expensive rosters and, with the Patriots’ possessing minimal financial flexibility after years of borrowing future cap space and an aging core, Brady decided during the 2020 off-season that he would have an easier time winning with the Buccaneers and left New England, famously winning his 7th Super Bowl in his first season in Tampa Bay.

In the Patriots’ first season without Brady, they seemed to embrace the full rebuild, opting to use the year to reset their cap for the future, leaving them with a roster that had the 3rd lowest total average annual salary in the league, a metric that correlates heavily with winning percentage. They gave a contract barely over the minimum to reclamation project Cam Newton as a replacement for Brady and hoped for the best out of an underwhelming roster, with an eye on having among the league’s most cap space the following off-season.

Cam Newton was underwhelming, rushing for 4.32 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 137 carries, but managing just a 82.9 QB rating as a passer. However, the Patriots did manage to win seven games, while ranking 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in offensive DVOA, which was probably the most they could have hoped for out of that roster, with long-time head coach Bill Belichick making the most he could out of the situation. For comparison, the only two teams with a lower total average annual salary that season than the Patriots finished with a combined record of 3-29. 

The following off-season, the Patriots spent heavily in free agency to rebuild the roster and used a first round pick on quarterback Mac Jones to replace Cam Newton. Their free agent class was a mixed bag, but Jones impressed in his rookie season, starting all 17 games and completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (92.5 QB rating), while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF and leading this offense to a 9th ranked finish in DVOA. The Patriots secured a wild card spot at 10-7 and their 3rd ranked point differential and 4th ranked overall DVOA suggested they were even better than that record in the regular season. However, they were embarrassed in the wild card round by their division rival Buffalo Bills, who have become the dominant team in this division since Brady’s departure during the 2020 season.

From there, things only got worse. The Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the head coaching job in Las Vegas last off-season and, without any good in-house alternatives, after years of offensive assistant departures, and with Belichick unwilling to make an outside hire, the Patriots ended up with long-time defensive assistant Matt Patricia and long-time special teams coach Joe Judge running the show on offense. The Patriots finished the year with a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA for the second straight year, but their offense plummeted to 24th in DVOA, leading to the Patriots finishing 15th overall in DVOA and with just a 8-9 record, outside of the post-season. 

Mac Jones especially regressed significantly, dropping to 65.2% completion, 6.78 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while totaling a 84.8 QB rating and a 67.5 PFF grade. He also missed time with injury early in the season and at one point seemed to fall behind 4th round rookie Bailey Zappe on the depth chart. Zappe impressed early on in Jones’ absence and finished with a 100.9 QB rating and a 67.1 PFF rating on 92 pass attempts, but he mostly faced a very weak schedule of defenses and the job eventually went back to Mac Jones for good after Zappe struggled mightily in a loss to the league worst Bears.

With the Patricia/Judge combination predictably failing, Bill Belichick’s ability to win post-Brady has come into question and Belichick has gone just 25-25 in the three seasons since Brady’s departure, with no playoff wins, but I think they’ve gotten more out of their roster than they should have in two in those three seasons, with last season being the exception. The bigger problem has been Belichick’s decision making in the front office, which has been a problem for this franchise since the final years of the Brady era. 

This off-season was another head scratching one from a personnel standpoint, with the Patriots opting not to make any splash signings, even at positions of need, despite having the financial flexibility to do so. Overall, the Patriots have the lowest average annual value of their roster this season and they are expected to have the most cap space in the league next off-season, suggesting the Patriots view this as another rebuilding year, or at least a transition year, where they don’t have realistic expectations of competing for a championship.

The Patriots did at least make one big addition this off-season, bringing back former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to give them an offensive coordinator that has the familiarity with this organization that Belichick likes, while also being a massive upgrade over Patricia and Judge. That alone should give them a boost on offense and, while it’s tough to play at a consistently high level on defense, the Patriots are coming off back-to-back top-4 finishes in defensive DVOA, they still have as good of a defensive coaching staff as any team in the league, led by Belichick himself, who remains a defensive mastermind, and they bring back 19 of their top-20 in terms of defensive snaps played from a year ago, so they have a good chance to remain one of the better defenses in the league, even if they aren’t quite as good as they have been in the past two seasons. 

Given their improved offense and their strong defense, it might seem like the Patriots, who were close to a wild card berth last season despite all of their offensive problems, will be able to qualify for the post-season this time around and they should at least have a shot, but their schedule, division, and conference are much tougher than a year ago and they still have concerns on offense around Mac Jones, even if he bounces back. Jones will probably have to have his best season yet in 2023 for the Patriots to legitimately contend in the AFC and it’s unclear how much upside the physically limited Jones has long-term. This isn’t a bad quarterback room, especially with Zappe at least looking like a solid backup long-term, but it might not be good enough for this team to legitimately compete in the loaded AFC, given the other questions around the quarterback position on this offense. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this offense is the offensive tackle position, which was a weakness last year, even with Trent Brown playing all 17 games and posting a 67.4 PFF grade, after missing 24 games over the previous three seasons combined. With Brown now going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will stay that healthy two years in a row and he could decline even when on the field, after finishing in the 60s or 70s in terms of PFF grade in all 8 seasons in the league. 

Despite Trent Brown’s age, injury history, and their lack of other good options at the position, all the Patriots did to address this need this off-season was signing Riley Reiff, who is in his age 35 season, and Calvin Anderson, who has 12 starts in four seasons in the league, with a max of 7 starts in a season. With the Patriots unwilling to spend big on significant upgrades, Reiff and Anderson signed contracts worth 4 million over 1 year and 7 million over 2 years respectively. Along with the only other holdover from a year ago, Conor McDermott, Reiff and Anderson will compete for the starting right tackle job opposite Trent Brown and the two losers of that battle will compete for the swing tackle job, which could easily become a starting job, given Brown’s age and injury history. 

Reiff has finished 60 or higher on PFF in all 11 seasons in the league, with seven seasons over 70, but the 67.5 and 64.5 PFF grades he’s had the past two seasons are middling, he’s made just 22 starts over those two seasons because of injuries and underwhelming performance, and his age is a big concern, so he could easily regress further or get injured more this season. Still, I would consider him the favorite for the right tackle job, given the alternatives. Anderson has flashed potential over the past two seasons, with 72.5 and 65.0 grades on PFF, but he has just 10 starts across those two seasons and is a former undrafted free agent, so he’s a projection to a larger role and probably doesn’t have that much upside. 

Conor McDermott, meanwhile, has just 12 starts in 6 seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2017, he’s never been more than a middling player even in limited action, and he’s already in his age 31 season. The 2-year, 3.6 million dollar extension the Patriots kept McDermott on this off-season is even less than what they paid for Reiff and Anderson, so I would consider him the 4th tackle, with Anderson likely to be the first option off the bench if Reiff wins the right tackle job as he’s likely favored to. This is a pretty thin offensive tackle group, with a pair of shaky expected starters and inexperienced options without much upside behind them on the depth chart.

The Patriots did add on the interior of this offensive line this off-season using 4th round picks on Eastern Michigan guard Sidy Sow and Troy center Jake Andrews and a 5th round pick on UCLA guard Atonio Mafi, but none of them are expected to start in year one, barring injuries. Left guard Cole Strange was a first round pick in 2022 and, despite a mediocre rookie year with a 54.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job because he has the upside to take a big step forward in year two, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

Center David Andrews was significantly better with a 74.5 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he now heads into his age 31 season, which is why Jake Andrews was drafted as insurance and a potential long-term replacement. David Andrews has finished above 70 on PFF in all but one of his last six seasons as a starter and has 100 total starts in 8 seasons in the league, so he would be declining from a relatively impressive prime even if he did drop off, but there’s a good chance he’s not as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, even if he remains a solid starter.

Right guard Michael Onwenu will probably be their best offensive lineman and he has the versatility to kick out to right tackle if they need him to, with one of the rookies then likely stepping into his spot on the interior, but Onwenu made all 17 starts at right guard last season, finishing with a 79.3 PFF grade that ranked 4th among guards and the Patriots probably want to keep him there, even if he does have the versatility to move outside. 

Onwenu was only a 6th round pick in 2020 and entered his first two seasons in the league as a reserve, but because of injuries to starters, Onwenu made 24 starts total in those two seasons (8 at guard and 16 at tackle) and posted impressive 84.3 and 87.0 grades on PFF, so his 2022 season was not at all a surprise and, still only in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, regardless of where he plays. He elevates this offensive line significantly by himself and, overall, the Patriots are much better on the interior than at tackle, but their durability, age, and depth concerns at tackle are still a big problem.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Patriots’ receiving corps is also a concern. They signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a contract worth 25.5 million over 3 years, but that was at best a lateral move to replace Jakobi Myers, who had a 75.6 PFF grade, a 1.90 yards per route run average, and a 67/804/6 slash line in 2022, leading the team as a solid, but underwhelming #1 wide receiver. Smith-Schuster is similar, but probably a downgrade, averaging 2.12 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league as the #2 wide receiver opposite Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, but averaging just 1.45 yards per route run in four seasons since, as the de facto #1 wide receiver with the Steelers and then last season with the Chiefs. 

Smith-Schuster’s 1.77 yards per route run average in 2022 was his best since his second season in the league in 2018, but he also had the benefit of playing with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback and still did worse from a yards per route run standpoint than Meyers, even with Meyers playing in a much worse passing game. Even if Mac Jones and this passing game are better in 2023 than they were a year ago, I would expect Smith-Schuster to be below his 2022 mark in yards per route run and possibly well below where Meyers was.

The Patriots should get more of out of Kendrick Bourne in 2023, who has 1.77 yards per route run in two seasons in New England, but played fewer snaps (441) than Nelson Agholor (474) or Tyquan Thornton (526) in 2022, even though they averaged just 1.23 and 0.76 yards per route run. Bourne should have played more and would have if not for what seemed like a personal beef between him and Matt Patricia. Now with Patricia gone I would expect Bourne to have a bigger role in this passing game in 2023, which should benefit this offense, given how efficient he’s been over the past two seasons.

Agholor is also gone, which is addition by subtraction, given how much he struggled last season, and the Patriots are hoping for more out of Tyquan Thornton, who also struggled mightily last season, but who was only a rookie and who could take a step forward in year two. The 2022 2nd round pick still has a lot of upside, despite his rookie season struggles, and will at least compete for a starting job with Kendrick Bourne and fellow veteran Devante Parker, with Smith-Schuster almost definitely locked into a starting role given the contract the Patriots gave him. 

Parker wasn’t bad last season with a 1.71 yards per route run average and the 8-year veteran has a 1.67 yards per route run average for his career, but he’s also missed at least 2 games in 6 of those 8 seasons, with 24 games missed total, and, in part due to that, he has only surpassed 800 receiving yards once in his career. Now in his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could start to regress noticeably this season. He’s not a bad starting option, but he is unlikely to be much more than a middling starting option even when on the field.

The Patriots are also hoping to get more out of their tight ends this season to mask some of their issues at the wide receiver position. Two off-seasons ago, they spent big, giving contracts worth 37.5 million over 3 years and 50 million over 4 years respectively to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Henry had a solid first season in New England with a 50/603/9 slash line and a 1.50 yards per route run average, but that fell to 41/509/2 and 1.21 yards per route run in 2022, while Smith was primarily utilized as a blocker and was never given a big passing game role, despite his salary and a decent 1.64 yards per route run average across the past two seasons.

Henry was retained this off-season and the Patriots are hoping for a bounce back for a player with a 1.55 yards per route run average for his career and who is still only in his age 29 season, but even if he does bounce back, he’s unlikely to be the high level tight end the Patriots are paying him to be. Smith, meanwhile, was traded to the Falcons in essentially a salary dump this off-season, which freed up space for the Patriots to replace him with former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki, who they gave a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal to in free agency.

A 2nd round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, Gesicki had solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, with slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 respectively and a combined 1.52 yards per route run average between the two seasons, leading to the Dolphins franchise tagging him for the 2022 season at 10.931 million, but new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel deemphasized the tight end position in the passing game and Gesicki was limited to a 32/362/5 slash line and a 1.02 yards per route run average last season as a result. Gesicki is still only in his age 28 season and has the potential to bounce back in a more tight end centric offense in New England, so the Patriots were smart to buy low on him, getting him for less than half what he made last season on the franchise tag. Like the rest of this receiving corps, Gesicki is not a #1 option, but the Patriots at least have some decent options in the passing game.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Top running back Rhomandre Stevenson was actually second on this team in targets with 88 last season, only behind Jakobi Meyers’ 96 targets, but Stevenson was pretty inefficient, averaging just 4.78 yards per target, and that target total figures to drop significantly with a better offensive scheme and receiving corps that should be deeper than a year ago. Stevenson will still retain a passing game role though, after averaging 1.54 yards per route run as the #2 back as a 4th round rookie in 2021 and 1.24 yards per route run last season.

Stevenson also could easily have more carries than a year ago, when #2 back and former starter Damien Harris took 106 carries, which he turned into a 4.36 YPC average and 3 touchdowns. Stevenson, meanwhile, turned his 210 carries into 4.95 YPC and 5 touchdowns, after a 4.56 YPC average and 5 touchdowns on 133 carries as a rookie. Including what he does in the passing game, Stevenson has finished with PFF grades of 79.2 and 81.3 respectively across his first two seasons in the league.

Harris wasn’t really replaced this off-season, with 2022 4th round pick Pierre Strong (51 rookie year snaps) likely to take over as the #2 back and being unlikely to have the same workload as Harris did a year ago, so the opportunity is there for Stevenson to be a true feature back on the ground, in addition to his passing game work. He might not be quite as efficient as he’s been the past two seasons, but he figures to be among the better running backs in the league this season.

Strong isn’t a bad backup either, even if he probably won’t have that big of a role unless Stevenson gets hurt. Strong only had 10 carries as a rookie, but he did have an impressive 10.0 YPC average, buoyed by a 44-yard carry, and he was an effective pass catcher in college, with 42 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, before impressing with a 1.91 yards per route run average in a very limited passing game role as a rookie (7 targets). 

The Patriots also have 2022 6th round pick Kevin Harris, who only played 53 snaps as a rookie and, unlike Pierre Strong, did not impress in his limited action, but he could contribute more in year two and isn’t a bad #3 back. This backfield will go as Rhomandre Stevenson goes, but Stevenson has the potential to be among the best all-around running backs in the league this season and their backup options aren’t bad, with Pierre Strong in particular having significant potential.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots have had a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA in back-to-back seasons and, while it is tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense, with defensive performance being significantly less predictive than the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots return all but one key contributor from a year ago and still have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the league, led by head coach Bill Belichick, who remains one of the best defensive minds in the game. The Patriots probably won’t be as healthy on defense as a year ago, when they finished with the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league, but this defense is good enough that they can sustain more injuries than a year ago and remain one of the better units in the league, even if they don’t end up being quite as good as a year ago.

One player who should actually be healthier this season is top interior defender Christian Barmore, who was limited to just 327 snaps in 10 games by injury. Barmore still played pretty well when on the field, struggling as a run defender, but excelling as a pass rusher, totaling 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, carrying over his play from his rookie season, when he also struggled against the run, but totaled 1.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while playing 598 snaps in 17 games in a healthier season than 2022. Barmore is still only in his age 24 season and the 2021 2nd round pick has the upside to make 2023 his best season yet if he can avoid further injury. Even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, the Patriots should benefit just from having him more available than a year ago.

With Barmore not healthy for much of the season, the Patriots were led in snaps played at the interior defender position by Davon Godchaux (659 snaps), Lawrence Guy (504 snaps), and Daniel Ekuale (362 snaps), all of whom were pretty mediocre. Godchaux is usually a solid run defender, but he also has a career 4.9% pressure rate, while finishing below 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons in the league, and last season he even struggled against the run, leading to him finishing with an overall 53.1 PFF grade. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, he should have some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be a solid base package player, but he will remain a liability in sub packages, on the rare occasions he plays in obvious passing situations. 

Lawrence Guy was a solid, well-rounded player in his prime, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, on an average of 518 snaps per season, with three seasons over 70, but he fell to 53.5 on 504 snaps in 2022 and now heads into his age 34 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He will likely retain a rotational role in 2023, but will probably continue struggling. Ekuale was probably the best of the bunch in 2022, with a decent 60.1 PFF grade, but that came on just 362 snaps and the 2018 undrafted free agent had never surpassed a 60 PFF grade for a season or 290 snaps in a season prior to last season, so he’s an underwhelming option that shouldn’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Christian Barmore is an impressive interior pass rusher and Godchaux has bounce back potential against the run, but this is a pretty underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Patriots may only have one interior defender who is a good pass rusher, but they make up for that with their depth on the edge and frequently play three edge defenders at once in sub packages, with one lining up on the interior. Matt Judon and Deatrich Wise were their starters at the edge defender position last season and both were every down players, seeing 858 snaps and 828 snaps respectively, while sub package pass rush specialist Josh Uche played 373 snaps with 87.4% of those snaps coming on pass plays. All three of those players remain on this team for 2023.

Wise is usually the one lining up on the interior in sub packages when Uche comes in, but despite frequently playing on the interior, where it’s tougher to get pressure on the quarterback, Wise still finished last season with 7.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, while also holding up against the run and finishing the season with a 74.9 PFF grade overall. Last year was by far a career high in snaps played for Wise, who had never exceeded 565 snaps in his career prior to last season, but it wasn’t his first solid season, as he had PFF grades of 68.8, 70.6, and 64.8 in the three seasons prior to last, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, and he probably won’t have to play as many snaps this season, with the Patriots using a 2nd round pick on a similar hybrid defensive lineman, Georgia Tech’s Keion White, who has a high upside and figures to see a role as a rookie.

Judon was their best free agent signing during their big spending spree two off-seasons ago, signing on a 4-year, 54.5 million dollar deal that he has been well worth. His run defense has been inconsistent, but he more than makes up for that with his pass rush, with 28 sacks, 29 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 34 games in two seasons in New England. Prior to joining the Patriots, Judon also had 22.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 46 games in his final three seasons in Baltimore, so he has been a consistently high level pass rusher for several years. He’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline, but he should remain at least an above average edge rusher, barring an unexpected massive dropoff.

Uche was actually the most efficient pass rusher of the bunch last season, totaling 11.5 sacks and 3 hits, despite his limited playing time, with a ridiculous 19.7% pressure rate. Uche was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed a lot of potential in limited action in his first two seasons, playing 414 snaps in 21 games (82.1% on pass plays) and totaling 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate, so his 2022 season didn’t come out of nowhere, even if it was by far the best season of his career. Uche might not be quite as efficient in 2023 as he was a year ago, but he could easily remain a very effective player in sub packages, still only his age 25 season. With promising rookie Keion White being added to an already deep group, this is one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Things aren’t changing much for the Patriots in the linebacking corps this season, with Jawhaun Bentley (907 snaps) and Jahlani Tavai (570 snaps) remaining their top-2 linebackers, although both are coming off of career best seasons that they might struggle to repeat. Bentley has always shown potential, since being drafted in the 5th round in 2018, surpassing 65 in PFF in four of five seasons in the league, but 2022 was a career high for him in terms of snaps played (his previous high was 693) and he also posted a 80.4 PFF grade that ranked 9th among eligible off ball linebackers, the highest ranked finish of his career. 

Bentley is only in his age 27 season and should remain at least an above average every down linebacker, but he might not be able to repeat the best year of his career for the second straight year. Tavai, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2019 by the Detroit Lions and was decent with a 59.7 PFF grade on 616 rookie year snaps, but that plummeted to a 32.1 PFF grade on 624 snaps in year two and then he was cut by the Lions and barely played in year three in his first season in New England, limited to 57 snaps total, before breaking out with a surprising 73.5 grade in a part-time role in 2023.

Tavai won’t have to play more than a part-time role in 2023, barring an injury to Bentley, as the Patriots frequently use a safety as a second linebacker in sub packages, which I will get more into later, but even in a primarily base package role, Tavai could struggle to repeat the best year of his career. I would expect him to remain at least a capable base package player, but I would guess the combination of him and Jawhaun Bentley will take a step back overall this season.

Another thing that will be different in this linebacking corps this season is reserve Raekwon McMillan (250 snaps) being lost to a season ending injury in the off-season. That isn’t a big loss, considering McMillan’s limited playing time and that he had just a 42.7 PFF grade, but the Patriots are hurting for depth at this position, with their top reserve likely to be Mack Wilson, who also struggled in limited action last season, with a 47.1 PFF grade on 234 snaps. 

Wilson was a 5th round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 25 season, so it’s possible he has some untapped upside, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, despite mostly being a reserve (an average of 435 snaps played per season in his career) so he would likely struggle if forced into significant action by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart and he’s a pretty underwhelming depth option. The Patriots also used a 3rd round pick on Sacramento State linebacker Marte Mapu, who will also provide depth, but who also would likely struggle in a big role, at least as a rookie, given how raw of a prospect he is. This is still a solid linebacking corps, but Bentley and Tavai are unlikely to both be as good as they were a year ago and depth is a concern if either of those two get injured.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The one key defensive player the Patriots lost this off-season was safety Devin McCourty, who retired ahead of what would have been his age 36 season. That’s not a small loss though, as McCourty still had a 70.0 PFF grade and led all Patriots defensive backs with 1,097 snaps played in his final season in the league in 2022. McCourty’s absence is especially concerning, given how important the safety position is in this offense, with a third safety frequently lining up as a linebacker in sub packages. 

To replace McCourty, the Patriots will have a pair of hybrid defensive backs, Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant, see more action at safety, after mostly playing cornerback last season, and they added Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round of the draft to replace the vacated snaps at cornerback. Mills and Bryant are mediocre options though, so, in McCourty’s absence, the Patriots’ top safeties will be Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips, who received PFF grades of 78.4 and 72.7 respectively on 752 snaps and 702 snaps respectively last season, and they are likely to give more action to Jabrill Peppers, who only saw 398 snaps last season, but recorded a 75.0 PFF grade. 

Dugger has the most upside of the bunch and is the leading candidate to replace McCourty long-term, as the 2020 2nd round pick has seen his PFF grade increase from 64.1 to 71.8 to 78.4 in three seasons in the league, but he has yet to play an every down role, he has missed two games with injury in each of his three seasons in the league and, as a result, the 752 snaps he played last season are a career high. Still only in his age 27 season, the upside is there for Dugger to be an above average every down player and he could have his best year yet in 2023, but he’s a slight projection to a larger role.

Adrian Phillips has also never been a true every down player, maxing out at 883 snaps played in a season in 2021, which was the only time he had exceeded 750 snaps in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons and he has been especially good in the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 87.6, 66.2, 80.5, and 72.7 in those seasons respectively. Phillips is now in his age 31 season and could start to decline, but he figures to see close to an every down role and has a good chance to remain an above average option, barring a massive decline.

Jabrill Peppers, meanwhile, is a 2017 first round pick who played an average of 797 snaps per season in his first four seasons in the league, before an injury plagued 2021 season (11 games missed) and a 2022 season in which he was mostly a reserve. He’s exceeded 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, with a pair of seasons over 70, so he should be a solid option in what should be an expanded role for him in 2023. Like Dugger and Phillips, Peppers is a versatile player who can play linebacker in sub packages. All three of them figure to have significant roles and line up in multiple different spots this season.

Mills and Bryant, as I mentioned, are much more underwhelming options. Bryant went undrafted in 2020 and has been middling at best on snap counts of 156, 405, and 689 in three seasons in the league as a hybrid safety/cornerback, with a mediocre 58.4 PFF grade in the most action of his career in 2022, when he was mostly a cornerback. Mills, meanwhile, is a 7-year veteran who has finished below 60 on PFF in four of those seven seasons, including a 44.6 PFF grade on 468 snaps in 2022. Mills has been better at safety than at cornerback in his career, but he’s still a mediocre safety option. Neither he nor Bryant should see more than a deep reserve role, but it’s possible one or both see at least somewhat significant action, especially if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the rookie Gonzalez figures to start right away opposite veteran Jonathan Jones, who is their de facto #1 cornerback. Jones has exceeded 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being an injury plagued 2021 season, and he finished last season with a 68.1 PFF grade on a career high 914 snaps, after mostly being a slot specialist earlier in his career. Now in his age 30 season, Jones probably is what he is at this stage of his career, a solid, but unspectacular starter, and he could start to decline, but most likely he’ll remain at least a capable starting option.

Along with adding Gonzalez in the first round of this year’s draft, the Patriots also used 3rd and 4th round picks on Marcus Jones and Jack Jones in the 2022 NFL Draft and both showed significant potential as rookies. Marcus Jones is only a slot specialist at 5-8 188, but he posted a 67.6 PFF grade on 371 rookie year snaps, while Jack Jones was even better with a 74.7 PFF grade on 434 rookie year snaps, and he has the ability to play outside if needed. However, off-the-field problems and issues with the coaching staff cloud Jack Jones’ long-term projection and, while he might not be suspended at all this season, I would expect him to open the season outside of the starting lineup, as the 4th cornerback at best. He’s good insurance to have though, in a secondary that doesn’t have a lot of top level talent, but that is pretty deep and overall above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Patriots offense should be better by default this season, with Bill O’Brien coming in to give them a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator, and, with minimal changes on defense, that side of the ball should remain an above average unit, even if it would be hard for them to be as healthy and as good as they were last year again this year. Unfortunately, the Patriots’ conference has gotten so much tougher this off-season and numerous other AFC teams look noticeably better than them on paper, as the Patriots still have several significant concerns on offense. Add in that the Patriots play in the toughest division in football and will have one of the toughest schedules and it will be an uphill climb for the Patriots to even sneak into a wild card, despite a pretty solid roster. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 4th in AFC East

Baltimore Ravens 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Quarterback

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson burst onto the scene in his first season as a starter in 2019. A polarizing prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, with unparalleled athleticism, but legitimate accuracy questions, Jackson showed both of those things as a rookie, when he made seven starts and played situationally in the other nine games. Overall, he completed just 58.2% of passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, but he also rushed for 4.73 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 147 carries. However, in year two, he improved drastically as a passer and became the ultimate dual threat, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 36 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, while still dominating as a runner, with 1,206 yards and 7 touchdowns on 176 carries (6.85 YPC), receiving a 91.1 PFF grade and leading a talented Ravens team to a 14-2 record, en route to winning the NFL’s MVP award. 

The Ravens fell short in a divisional round loss to the Titans, but that was primarily because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and went 0 for 4 on 4th downs, which tend to be unpredictable week-to-week, so that loss didn’t seem to be cause for long-term concern, especially with Lamar Jackson still being so young and the rest of this team looking like it would provide Jackson with a strong supporting cast for years to come. In the three seasons since Jackson’s dominant 2019 campaign, he has remained good, but he has yet to match the level he reached in his MVP season, totaling 63.7% completion, 7.27 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while rushing for 2,536 yards and 12 touchdowns on 404 carries (6.28 YPC) and receiving grades of 81.5, 70.2, and 85.2 respectively from PFF. 

More concerningly, Jackson’s last three seasons have all ended with him getting injured. He was mostly healthy in 2020, with his only missed game being because of COVID, but he suffered a concussion in an eventual post-season defeat to the Bills and then finished the 2021 and 2022 seasons both on injured reserve, missing five games in each season and not making any playoff starts in those two seasons, as Jackson’s absence caused the Ravens to fall out of the post-season in 2021 and Jackson then wasn’t healthy enough to play in the Ravens’ eventual post-season loss to the Bengals in 2022.

Jackson still had a 26-13 regular season record when healthy across those three seasons, as opposed to 3-8 in his absence, so there is no denying his importance to this team, but there were long-term concerns about his ability to stay healthy, given that his playing style exposes him to more hits than most quarterbacks. Beyond that, the track record of dual threat quarterbacks continuing to play at a high level into their 30s is pretty limited, as they tend to be unable to compensate for their declining athleticism as they age, especially if they have a significant injury history. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, but he was set to be a free agent this off-season, so the Ravens had a big decision to make on whether or not to give him a top of the market long-term deal, despite the aforementioned long-term concerns. The Ravens originally franchise tagged him, but that seemed like a way to buy themselves more time in negotiations rather than a legitimate sign they didn’t believe in him long-term, as teams around the league were very hesitant to make Jackson a long-term offer, knowing the Ravens would almost certainly utilize their right to match any deal signed by their franchise tagged player. Ultimately, the Ravens and Jackson agreed to a 5-year, 260 million dollar deal that makes him the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing and includes 185 million guaranteed, while keeping Jackson under team control through the 2027 season.

Still, even with the Ravens committing to Jackson long-term, they clearly are not satisfied with the results of the past few seasons and felt it was necessary to make some major changes to this offense this off-season. The most notable one was letting go of offensive coordinator Greg Roman, originally credited for building the scheme around Jackson that best utilized his athleticism, and replacing him with Todd Monken, much more of a traditional offensive coordinator. 

Roman’s history of work with mobile quarterbacks is impressive, previously coaching Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor to the best seasons of their careers, but the Ravens felt his scheme had become stale and predictable and, with Jackson getting older and increasingly more injury prone, the Ravens wanted to throw the ball more this season and be less reliant on Jackson taking off and running. Hiring a more traditional, pass-heavy offensive coordinator helps them accomplish that goal.

Whether this proves to be the right approach remains to be seen. While keeping your most important player healthy is obviously a worthwhile goal, Jackson’s rushing ability is what makes him special and makes life easier for him as a passer, as teams usually have to take a player out of coverage to spy him. On top of that, Monken isn’t that accomplished of a play caller at the professional level so there is definitely risk in replacing Roman with him. Jackson will still take off and run more than most quarterbacks this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 183 carries per 17 games he had averaged over the past four seasons be cut in half in 2023 and it remains to be seen how that will affect his overall game.

One change the Ravens didn’t make this off-season was trying to find a better backup quarterback than Tyler Huntley, who has been underwhelming in Jackson’s absence over the past two seasons, completing 65.7% of his passes, but for just 5.80 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while receiving mediocre grades of 62.0 and 57.8 respectively from PFF as a passer. Huntley does have an average of 4.79 YPC on 90 carries over those two seasons, but he probably won’t be as good of a scheme fit for the Ravens’ new offense as he was in the Ravens’ old offense because of his limitations as a passer, so it was a little surprising that the Ravens didn’t look that hard for an alternative this off-season. 

This offense has a very high upside if Jackson takes well to the new scheme and stays mostly healthy, but the scheme change could also prove to be a mistake and/or Jackson could miss another significant chunk of time with injury, leaving underwhelming backup Tyler Huntley in a very tough situation. I’d still rather have Lamar Jackson and this Ravens’ quarterback room than most teams’ quarterback rooms, but there are some reasons for concern here.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from the coordinator and scheme change, the biggest change on this offense this off-season were the additions they made to their receiving corps, a necessity for the more pass-heavy style they plan to play this season. Previously, this team didn’t value the wide receiver position highly, as their run-heavy offense focused it’s limited passing game primarily on tight end Mark Andrews, who has averaged 2.21 yards per route run with an average 84/1048/9 slash line per 17 games in four seasons since the 2018 3rd round pick became an every down starter in his second season in the league, perhaps not coincidentally the year Lamar Jackson took a big step forward as a passer. 

Andrews is only in his age 27 season and figures to remain a big part of this offense, but they will need more contributions from their wide receivers, after having just two seasons of 600 yards or more by a wide receiver over the past four seasons respectively, none of which were last season, when their leading wide receiver had just a 48/458/2 slash line. They used first round picks on wide receivers in 2019 and 2021 respectively, taking Marquise Brown and then Rashod Bateman, but Brown was traded last off-season, returning a first round pick after a promising start to his career, in which he had both of the Ravens’ 600+ yard receiving seasons by a wide receiver over the past four seasons, while Bateman has been limited to 1.51 yards per route run and 19 games played in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and inconsistency.  

However, Bateman still has upside in his third season in the league if he can stay healthy and the Ravens used another first round pick on a wide receiver in this year’s draft, taking Boston College’s Zay Flowers, another promising young wide receiver, in addition to signing veteran Odell Beckham to a fully guaranteed 1-year, 15 million dollar deal. Bateman and Flowers have upside, but it seems like the Ravens will mostly be relying on Beckham as their top option, given the salary they paid him. 

In his prime, Beckham was a #1 wide receiver, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a year he mostly missed with injury. However, Beckham has missed a lot more time over the past three seasons, missing 29 of 50 games in the past three seasons with two separate ACL tears, including an entirely lost 2022 season, and he’s only averaged 54/693/7 slash line per 17 games with 1.45 yards per route run when on the field over that stretch. Beckham should be healthier now over a year and a half from his most recent injury, but he’s also now going into his age 31 season and, even if he stays healthy, which is far from a guarantee, his best days are almost definitely behind him. Given that, his contract seems like an overpay, but he should still be a useful contributor to an improved wide receiver group.

The Ravens also still have Devin Duvernay, who was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but has mostly struggled in his career, with 0.95 yards per route run, and they signed veteran journeyman Nelson Agholor, who has lasted into now his 9th season in the league in 2023, but who has also mostly struggled in his career, with 1.19 yards per route run, and who is now going into his age 30 season. They’re not terrible depth options, but both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart.

At tight end, Andrews will be backed up by Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, a pair of 2022 4th round pick. Likely played 412 snaps last season and had a decent 36/373/3 slash line with 1.39 yards per route run and Kolar also flashed in limited action, playing just 36 snaps, but posting a 74.8 PFF grade and averaging 1.81 yards per route run. Both could see more playing time with blocking specialist Josh Oliver no longer with the team, after a season in which he played 561 snaps and had a 74.0 PFF grade as a blocker, but only averaged 1.02 yards per route run. He’ll be missed as a blocker, but Likely and Kolar are probably better fits for this new pass-heavier offense. The Ravens are still better at tight end than they are at wide receiver, but they’re wide receiver group is improved and at least has more upside than a year ago, while their tight end group is one of the best in the league, making this an above average overall receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Even with this team being run-heavy in recent years, there haven’t been that many carries available for running backs, with Jackson leading the team in rushing in four straight seasons and leading the team in carries in three straight seasons. Last year, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were supposed to be their top-2 backs, but injuries limited them to 92 carries in 8 games and 87 carries in 9 games respectively, as they struggled to return from injuries that also cost them all of 2021. Edwards and Dobbins missing significant time last season left Kenyan Drake, a veteran journeyman signed right before the start of the season, to lead Ravens running backs in carries with 109. 

Drake took those carries for 4.42 YPC and 4 touchdowns, which doesn’t sound that bad, but life has been much easier for running backs in this offense in recent years because defenses have to worry about Jackson faking the handoff and running with it himself, so those are actually pretty unimpressive numbers. That’s especially true when you compare them to the 4.98 YPC and 5.65 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins averaged respectively last season and the 5.16 YPC and 5.86 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins have averaged in 5 seasons and 3 seasons respectively with the Ravens, on carry totals of 501 and 226 respectively.

Edwards and Dobbins should be healthier this season, with minimal injury history outside of the major injuries they suffered now two years ago, and Drake wasn’t retained as a free agent, but the Ravens did also sign veteran Melvin Gordon as insurance, so Dobbins and Edwards won’t get the backfield totally to themselves. Since Dobbins joined the team as a 2nd round rookie in 2020, he has averaged 9.83 carries per game, as opposed to 9.24 carries per game for Edwards over that stretch and I would expect a similar split of work between the two this season, perhaps with Dobbins earning more work over the former undrafted free agent Edwards. 

Gordon, meanwhile, will likely be the third running back on the depth chart. He was a solid running back in his prime, but he has surpassed 1000 yards rushing just once in 8 seasons in the league, he has just an underwhelming 4.12 YPC average for his career, and that dropped to 3.53 YPC last season, a big concern with Gordon now going into his age 30 season, which tends to be when running backs are close to done. The Ravens aren’t paying him much, as his “1-year, 3.1 million dollar contract” sounds like it is mostly incentives, but for the Ravens’ sake, hopefully Edwards and Dobbins stay healthy and Gordon doesn’t have to be higher than third on the depth chart.

Running backs have never caught many passes from Lamar Jackson, with an average of 52 catches by running backs per season since Lamar Jackson’s first season as the full time starter in 2019 and Dobbins and Edwards have especially been limited in the passing game, with 25 catches in 23 career games and 18 catches in 52 career games respectively. Even with this team becoming more pass-heavy, I don’t expect that to change significantly this season. Neither Edwards (0.62 career yards per route run) nor Dobbins (0.56 career yards per route run) have any real history of success on passing downs and Jackson doesn’t have much need to dump off to running backs in the passing game, given his ability to scramble when he gets in trouble.

Melvin Gordon has more of a track record in the passing game, with a 1.28 yards per route run average for his career, and he will probably be their primary passing down back, which is probably the main reason they signed him, but even he is unlikely to have a significant target share in this offense, which tends to be the case for running backs on offenses with mobile quarterbacks. This is a solid backfield overall, but they will need Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to be healthier than a year ago and much of the success that running backs have had on this offense in recent years can be credited to the threat of Jackson taking off and running, which also tends to be the case on offenses with mobile quarterbacks.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the Ravens investing their resources in re-signing Lamar Jackson long-term and getting him better pass catching options this off-season, they didn’t have enough to keep starting left guard Ben Powers, who signed a 4-year, 51.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos as a free agent this off-season. Powers only had a 62.9 PFF grade last season, but the Ravens didn’t really add a replacement this off-season, only using a 6th round pick on Oregon’s Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, who is unlikely to start as a rookie and almost definitely would struggle if forced to.

The most likely candidate to replace Powers is Ben Cleveland, who went in the 3rd round in 2021, but was mediocre with a 55.8 PFF grade on 367 snaps as a rookie, before playing just 92 snaps in year two last season. He still has upside and could develop into a solid starter, but he’s obviously a projection to a larger role and, even if he develops into a solid starter long-term, he could still struggle in his first season as the starter. 

The Ravens also have veteran Patrick Mekari, a versatile offensive lineman who has never been a season long starter, but who has made 29 starts in 4 seasons in the league, 16 at tackle, 3 at guard, and 10 at center, while receiving grades of 70.5, 66.9, 66.1, and 73.3 from PFF. He’s also a projection to a season-long starting role, but he is probably a safer option than Cleveland because he’s much more experienced and proven. If he doesn’t win the starting job, he will remain a very valuable reserve and figures to see action somewhere at some point, one way or another. The Ravens also have 2022 4th round pick Daniel Faalele as a depth option, though the massive 6-8 380 pound tackle had just a 50.2 PFF grade across 169 rookie year snaps.

The rest of this offensive line should be the same as a year ago, which is a good thing because the Ravens finished last season ranked 2nd on PFF in both team pass blocking grade and team run blocking grade. However, there is some concern with a pair of aging starters who could decline this season, right guard Kevin Zeitler and right tackle Morgan Moses. Both had above average seasons in 2023, receiving PFF grades of 74.0 and 78.1 respectively in 15 starts and 17 starts respectively, and both could struggle to repeat those seasons again in 2023.

Zeitler is the older of the two, going into his age 33 season. He’s been one of the better guards in the league throughout his career, surpassing 70 on PFF in 10 of 11 seasons in the league (166 starts), and, even if he declines, he would likely remain at least a solid starter, but his age is a concern. Moses, meanwhile, is going into his age 32 season and has made 130 starts in the past eight seasons as a starter, surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He also likely would remain at least a solid starter even if he declined, but, like Zeitler, I would expect him to be at least a little worse than a year ago.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are younger and both should have strong seasons again in 2023. Center Tyler Linderbaum was only a rookie last season, but the 25th overall pick finished as PFF’s 6th ranked center overall with a 74.7 PFF grade. He has the upside to develop into one of the best centers in the league long-term and, even if he doesn’t take another step forward in year two, I would expect him to at least remain at least an above average starter.

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in 2016. The early part of his career was very promising, as he finished his first four seasons in the league with PFF grades of 74.8, 75.1, 77.5, and 88.5 respectively, while making 56 total starts, with his 2019 grade ranking 3rd among offensive tackles that season, but injuries have limited him to just 18 games in three seasons since. He’s still played pretty well when on the field, including a 70.9 PFF grade in 11 games (602 snaps) last season and the worst of his injuries seem to be behind him, but he’s yet to come close to his career best 2019 season and there’s a good chance he never repeats that season, even if he manages to stay healthier going forward. 

Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Stanley should remain at least an above average starter when on the field, but there’s a better than average chance that he ends up missing more time at some point. This is still a strong offensive line, but I wouldn’t expect them to be quite as good as last year, having lost left guard Ben Powers and with a pair of starters on the right side of this offensive line being on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Ravens had a strong defense a year ago, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, which is especially impressive when you consider they also had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury on that side of the ball. The Ravens should be healthier on defense this season, but they did lose some key players this off-season, so they won’t necessarily be better as a result of being healthier. One key loss this off-season is interior defender Calais Campbell, who had a PFF grade on 548 snaps last season, playing well both as a run defender and a pass rusher (5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate). 

The Ravens do get Michael Pierce back from injury, after he played just 91 snaps in 3 games last season, while the rest of this interior defender group should be the same as a year ago, with Justin Madubuike (655 snaps), Broderick Washington (482 snaps), Travis Jones (322 snaps), and Brent Urban (298 snaps) all remaining on this roster. Durability has been an issue throughout Pierce’s career, as the big 6-0 355 pounder has never played more than 594 snaps per game in a season, and it’s especially been a problem in recent years, as he sat out the 2020 COVID season and then has been limited to just 11 games over the past two seasons since returning. 

Pierce has played the run at a high level throughout his career, surpassing 80 in run defense grade on PFF in three of six active seasons in the league and surpassing 70 in five of six seasons, including a 74.3 PFF grade last season, but he also has a pretty impressive 7.5% pressure rate, so he isn’t just a big run defender. He’s now going into his age 31 season and hasn’t been quite as good in recent years as he was earlier in his career, even when on the field, which, coupled with all of the time he has missed in recent years, is a concern, but if he can stay relatively healthy this season, he should remain at least a useful rotational player, with the upside for more if he can stay healthy and turn back the clock.

The rest of this bunch are mostly young players and, because of that, they have the upside to be better this year than a year ago. Justin Madubuike was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has mostly been a middling player throughout his career, but he’s seen his snap count increase from 259 to 482 to 655 in his three seasons in the league and he’s a pretty well-rounded player, providing solid run defense, while also contributing a decent 6.6% pressure rate. He should continue playing a similar snap count in 2023 as he did in 2022, which should lead this position group again, and, still only in his age 26 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2023 was his best season yet.

Travis Jones was a 3rd round pick last year and flashed some potential as a rookie, albeit on just 322 snaps. Still, he should play more snaps this season and has a good chance to take a step forward in year two. Broderick Washington is the least impressive of the bunch, going in just the 5th round in 2020 and struggling on snap counts of 161 and 293 respectively in the first two seasons of his career, but he took a step forward in 2022, with a 69.5 PFF grade on 482 snaps. He might not have a high upside, he could easily remain at least a useful rotational player.

Brent Urban isn’t young, but he also could have a role as a deep rotational player. He was a useful reserve early in his career, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of the past four seasons, while averaging just 268 snaps per season and maxing out at 370 snaps in a season. Now in his age 32 season, he’s not even a lock to make this roster, but he could see some action if he makes the team. Losing Calais Campbell hurts this group and, while Michael Pierce should be healthier, he’s also on the wrong side of 30 with an extensive injury history, but the Ravens do at least have some promising young players at this position.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Ravens lost Justin Houston, who only played 397 snaps last year, but who had a 73.6 PFF grade and who especially excelled as a pass rusher, with 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Like Calais Campbell, Houston is an older player, going into his age 34 season, and the Ravens also have some promising young players at this position, so they didn’t feel the need to bring Houston back. The Ravens also didn’t bring back Jason Pierre-Paul, who played 524 snaps last season and who was also heading into his age 34 season in 2023, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 6.8% pressure rate, so he won’t be missed, especially given the young talent they have at this position.

Odafe Oweh was their first round pick in 2021 and he had a promising rookie season, with a 67.9 PFF grade on 615 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, but he regressed in a pretty big way in year two, falling to a 56.8 PFF grade on 633 snaps, while totaling just 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate. Oweh is only in his age 25 season and still has a big upside, so I would expect him to bounce back at least somewhat in year three and it’s possible he could end up having his best year yet this season.

David Ojabo was a second round pick in 2022, but he almost definitely would have been a first round pick, possibly a top-15 selection, if not for a torn achilles that he suffered during the pre-draft process. Ojabo returned to play 21 defensive snaps late last season, but, other than that, his whole rookie season was lost. However, now a full year and a half removed from the injury, Ojabo could easily show why he was seen as such a good prospect before getting hurt. He’s obviously unproven, but his return to health could be big for this position group.

The Ravens should also get a healthier year from Tyus Bowser, who tore his achilles in week 18 of the 2021 season and, as a result, was limited to 355 mediocre snaps in 9 games in 2022. Bowser only had a 56.4 PFF grade last season, while totaling just a 7.7% pressure rate, but he had three straight seasons in the 70s prior to his injury, while averaging 587 snaps per season over that stretch. Also an above average run defender, Bowser totaled 14 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate while playing all 49 possible games during those three seasons and, now another year removed from the injury, only in his age 28 season, Bowser has obvious bounce back potential. 

Boswer might not bounce all the way back to his pre-injury form, but he easily could and, even if he doesn’t, he will almost definitely give them more than he gave them a year ago. The Ravens also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Mississippi’s Tavius Robinson, who figures to at least have a deep reserve role at a position group that has promise, but that is also pretty thin and that doesn’t have a lot of experience overall, hence why a raw mid-round rookie is expected to have a role, with the rest of this position group behind him consisting of former undrafted free agents with no real NFL experience.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Ravens don’t have any big off-season departures or players returning from injury at the off ball linebacker position, but they should get more out of every down linebacker Roquan Smith, who only played 533 snaps in 9 games last season for the Ravens because he was only acquired at the trade deadline. The Ravens gave up a second round pick and eventually gave Smith a 5-year, 100 million dollar extension (highest average annual value among off ball linebackers) to keep him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and prior to joining the Ravens he had been a solid, but unspectacular player. However, the former 8th overall pick broke out in his new home, posting a 84.7 PFF grade in his half season with the Ravens to give him a 70.6 PFF grade on the season, 28th best among off ball linebackers.

Smith is a one-year wonder, or even a half-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s always had a huge upside, he’s still only going into his age 26 season, and, even if he regresses, he should still have a good chance to remain an above average every down player. Smith’s presence cost fellow starting linebacker Patrick Queen some playing time, but Queen’s shift in role seemed to benefit him, as the 2020 1st round pick had a 76.7 PFF grade in the 9 games he played alongside Smith, as opposed to 29.7, 43.5, and 59.8 in his first season in the league, second season in the league, and the first half of third season in the league respectively. 

That second half improvement wasn’t enough for the Ravens to pick up Queen’s 5th year option, which would have guaranteed him 12.722 million in 2024, and the Ravens may have found his long-term replacement in the draft in Clemson’s Trenton Simpson, who they selected in the third round, but Queen should still remain a starter in 2023 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner as a player and remained at least a solid starter. 

Simpson, meanwhile, will likely only play a reserve role, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. 2020 3rd round pick Malik Harrison is also a reserve option. He’s been unspectacular in that role in his first three seasons in the league, on an average of just 228 snaps per season, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could still have untapped upside, and the Ravens are unlikely to need much out of him in a relatively deep position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In the secondary, the Ravens lost starting cornerback Marcus Peters (734 snaps in 13 games) and starting safety Chuck Clark (1,091 snaps in 17 games) this off-season, after both had solid seasons with PFF grades of 67.7 and 66.0 respectively. Peters will likely be replaced by free agent addition Rock Ya-Sin, who has been solid for most of his 4-year career, finishing in the 60s on PFF in three of those seasons, but who has also missed 14 games with injury and has never been a full-time starter, only starting 38 of his 52 games played, with a maximum of 13 starts in a season, coming back in his rookie season in 2019. The former 2nd round pick is only in his age 27 season and could still develop into at least a capable starter, but he’s not as reliable as Peters and there’s a reason he was available for only a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal. 

Assuming he wins the job, Ya-Sin would start opposite #1 cornerback Marlon Humphrey, a 2017 first round pick who has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and probably the best player on this Ravens defense. Humphrey wasn’t a full-time starter in his first two seasons in the league and missed 7 games with injury in his next three seasons combined, before finally making all 17 starts for the first time in 2022, but he’s finished in the 70s on PFF in five of six seasons, including a 76.7 PFF grade last season that ranked 14th among cornerbacks. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, though it’s worth noting he’s probably a slightly higher injury risk than most players and might not play all 17 games for the second year in a row.

To replace Clark at safety, the Ravens will move second year player Kyle Hamilton, who was mostly a slot cornerback as a rookie, back to his natural position of safety, where he will play full-time as a starter next to Marcus Williams. Hamilton was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and flashed a ton of potential with a 82.3 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, so, even though he’s a projection to a full-time role, he could easily be an above average starter, with the upside to be one of the best safeties in the league long-term. 

Marcus Williams has the talent to be among the best safeties in the league as well and the Ravens should get a healthier year out of him after he missed seven games a year ago. Williams had a 73.9 PFF grade when on the field and that was still solid, but that actually was the worst of his 6-year career, during which he has surpassed 80 on PFF in three seasons. He had also only missed five games with injury in the five seasons prior to last and, only in his age 27 season, he should be healthier and has bounce back potential in 2023. He and Hamilton have the upside to be among the best safety duos in the league.

Replacing Hamilton as the primary slot cornerback is the biggest question in this secondary. The Ravens could continue to run a lot of 3-safety looks in sub packages, with Hamilton retaining his old role as the primary slot cornerback and one of Geno Stone or Brandon Stephens stepping in the other safety role, or they could use free agent acquisition Arthur Maulet, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, or 5th round rookie Kelly Kyu if they want to use more of a traditional 3-cornerback look. 

Geno Stone is probably their best option. He was only a 7th round pick in 2020 and played just 221 nondescript snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he wasn’t bad in that limited action and took a step forward in year three, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on 450 snaps. He’s still pretty unproven, but could easily remain a useful sub package player. Brandon Stephens, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and might have more upside than Stone, but so far he’s struggled throughout his career, with PFF grades of 53.0 and 52.5 respectively on snap counts of 742 and 452 respectively.

If the Ravens want to use a more traditional 3-cornerback look, Arthur Maulet is probably their best option, though that’s mostly by default. Maulet has played 404 snaps per season over the past four seasons, mostly as a slot specialist, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of those four seasons, including a 56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps in 2022, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he will almost definitely remain a below average option. 

Armour-Davis entered the league with significant potential and could still develop into a useful player long-term, but he was horrendous with a 28.2 PFF grade on 50 rookie year snaps and has a long way to go towards even being a capable 3rd cornerback. Meanwhile, the rookie Kelly Kyu will almost definitely be overmatched if forced into a significant role in year one. This secondary has good top end talent with top cornerback Marlon Humphrey and top safety Marcus Williams both being among the best in the league at their respective positions and with the promising young Kyle Hamilton possibly on his way to being that as well, but depth is at least somewhat of a concern, especially in sub packages.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Ravens have been among the best teams in the league over the past four seasons when they have starting quarterback Lamar Jackson healthy, but that has increasingly not been the case late in the season when it counts. In an effort to keep Jackson healthier longer as he ages, the Ravens are changing their offensive philosophy in a significant way this off-season. It’s a plan with a lot of potential, if Jackson can stay healthier and become a more productive passer, but it’s also a gamble, considering how well the old scheme fit Jackson’s skill set. 

This should remain one of the better teams in the league as long as Jackson is healthy, but there’s risk here as well, given the scheme change and Jackson’s injury history, and the Ravens play in the loaded AFC, where other teams seem like safer bets to go on a long run to the Super Bowl. A playoff spot seems likely at the very least, barring catastrophe, but it won’t be a surprise at all if they suffer another first or second round exit. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 3rd in AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterback

The Steelers started last season just 2-6, but won 7 of their final 9 games to make a late push towards a playoff spot, only coming short of a wild card spot on a tiebreaker. The Steelers were without dominant edge defender TJ Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, for seven of their first eight games, after he got injured week 1, and he returned for each of the final 9 games of the season, so it might seem that the Steelers will just be able to continue the run they went on in the second half of 2022 into 2023 as long as Watt is healthy, but that isn’t the full story.

For starters, a big part of the reason the Steelers had more success in the second half of the season was their schedule got much easier. While five of their first eight games came against playoff qualifiers, just three of their final nine games did and two of those games came against a Ravens team that was starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. When that is considered, it seems more like the Steelers were more or less an average team the whole season and, while the return of Watt obviously helped, it didn’t suddenly turn them from a bottom dweller to a contender. On top of that, while Watt should be healthier this season, the Steelers barely had any other injuries last season, having the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which will almost definitely not happen again in 2023.

There is one piece of good news for the Steelers’ chances of taking a step forward as a team in 2023 though and it’s the play of quarterback Kenny Pickett down the stretch of his rookie season. In his final five full starts of the season, Pickett totaled a grade of 90.2 on PFF, showing the promise that made him the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, after an underwhelming start with a 61.1 grade prior to those final five full starts. His stats in those five starts, 59.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions, don’t jump off the page, but that has a lot to do with the lack of talent around him on offense. 

In fact, while Pickett’s season-long stats, 63.0% completion, 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, look pretty mediocre, he actually ranked 18th among quarterbacks with a 75.5 PFF grade, even with the slow start he had to the season, as a big part of the problem with this Steelers’ offense was the supporting cast around the quarterback. Pickett’s last five starts are a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in year two and, if he can get better play from his supporting cast as well, that should lead to a significant jump in statistical production.

Pickett only really played 12 games as a rookie, sitting on the bench for most of the first three games of the season and missing close to two full games due to injury late in the year, with veteran Mitch Trubisky starting in his absence. Trubisky had a similar season, with a 76.6 PFF grade that ranked 15th among quarterbacks, but mediocre production, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. 

Trubisky was the 2nd overall pick in 2017 and started for most of his first four seasons in the league with the Bears (50 starts total) and, when he signed with the Steelers last off-season, it was with the intention of competing for the starting job, after spending the year as the backup in Buffalo in 2021. However, this off-season Trubisky was willing to sign long-term with the Steelers as a backup, signing a 2-year extension that pays him 19.25 million over the next three seasons, solid backup money, but a good value for the Steelers to keep a player who can be a low end starter for stretches if needed. 

Trubisky never panned out as a starter in Chicago, with a 87.2 QB rating and a max PFF grade of 66.4 for a season, but he wasn’t horrible either and he seemed to take a little bit of a step forward in 2023. Still only in his age 29 season, he could still have some untapped potential. Trubisky is a good option to have for a Steelers team that doesn’t totally know what it has in Pickett yet. This isn’t a great quarterback room, but it could be worse and there is potential if Pickett continues playing better than he did early in his rookie season.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Steelers had an unsustainably low amount of injuries overall last season and, with that unlikely to remain the case again in 2023, that is a threat to an offensive supporting cast that was already mediocre last season and that needs to take a step forward for this team to take a step forward. However, the Steelers did make some additions to this offense this off-season, which could offset their expected increase in injuries. 

The two most notable offensively upgrades were on the offensive line, where the Steelers used a first round pick on Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones and signed veteran guard Isaac Seumalo to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, adding to an offensive line that ranked 14th in pass blocking grade and 16th in run blocking grade last season, despite remarkably not having a single starter miss a game due to injury, allowing them to start the same five offensive linemen in all 17 starts, an incredible rare feat.

Jones could start at either left tackle or right tackle as a rookie, pushing either left tackle Dan Moore or right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor for their job. Moore was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has been starting since week 1 of his rookie year, but he was mediocre in year one with a 57.8 PFF grade in 16 starts and, while he was better in year two, he was a 62.4 grade, he could still stand to be upgraded and might not have a huge upside. 

Okorafor, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has been starting for three seasons, after playing minimally in his first two seasons in the league. Okorafor has 48 starts over those past three seasons, but he has been middling at best, with grades of 57.5, 63.6, and 61.2 respectively, so he too could stand to be upgraded. Jones may have some growing pains as a rookie, but he still could easily be an upgrade at either tackle spot, regardless of where he starts, and he obviously has more long-term upside than either Moore or Okorafor. 

Seumalo, meanwhile, is added to a guard group where Kevin Dotson and James Daniels received grades of 65.4 and 66.9 respectively from PFF last season. Neither player was bad, but Seumalo finished 7th among guards on PFF with a 75.2 grade last season, so he could easily be an upgrade. He does have some downside, as he heads into his age 30 season and is coming off of a career best year, but he should remain at least a solid starter and, with the money the Steelers are playing him, he figures to displace either Dotson or Daniels. 

Daniels was signed to a 3-year, 26.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, so he figures to remain a starter somewhere, especially after his 5th straight season with a PFF grade over 60 (65 starts), but he does have some experience at center (8 starts in 2019) and moving him there could give the Steelers’ their best five starting offensive linemen. Dotson has received grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons (30 starts) since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, so there’s a good argument for him keeping his starting job, which would require Daniels to move inside.

It’s possible the Steelers keep Daniels at guard and move Dotson to the bench though, as incumbent center Mason Cole is also coming off of a solid season with a 67.1 PFF grade, in the first year of a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal the Steelers signed him to last off-season. Cole could continue that play into 2023, but the 2018 3rd round pick finished below 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league (39 starts) prior to last season and might not be quite as good again in 2023. He might have permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, but it’s possible he struggles and/or winds up getting benched, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago.

The Steelers also added veteran Nate Herbig in free agency to give them more depth and they still have 2021 3rd round pick Kendrick Green, who struggled with a 52.4 grade on 975 snaps (15 starts) as a rookie and didn’t play a snap as a reserve in year two, but who could still have some upside long-term and, because of that, he is an interesting reserve option as well. Herbig, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019, but has made 38 starts over the past three seasons, while receiving grades of 71.2, 68.1, and 58.0 from PFF over those three seasons, so he’s obviously a good depth option to have. This offensive line doesn’t have a huge upside, but they should be deeper and probably better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers are hoping improved offensive line play can jumpstart the career of 2021 1st round pick running back Najee Harris, but Harris has been part of the problem as well. He’s surpassed 1000 yards rushing in each of his first two seasons in the league, but has mostly done so on volume, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry, while ranking 34th out of 50 eligible in carry success rate at 49% as a rookie in 2021 and 38th out of 42 eligible in carry success rate at 47% in his second season in the league in 2022. Meanwhile, Harris’ backup Jaylen Warren averaged 4.92 YPC on 77 carries in 2022, despite only being an undrafted rookie. Warren is still very unproven and a projection to a larger role, but he could have a larger role in year two, which could benefit Harris by keeping him fresher, after back-to-back huge workloads to start his career.

Warren also spelled Harris in some passing situations last season and had a 1.24 yards per route run average that was significantly better than Harris’ 0.77 yards per route run average. Harris has 115 catches through two seasons in the league, but that too is mostly due to volume, as he’s averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in his career, as well as just 4.73 yards per target. Warren could also cut into his passing game work more in 2023. The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Harris and Warren though and counting on a still unproven second year undrafted free agent to be the spark needed at the running back situation is not a great situation to be in, with Harris mostly disappointing through two seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad backfield, but they could remain an underwhelming rushing team.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

A lesser addition the Steelers made to this offense this off-season was veteran Allen Robinson, who comes over from the Rams on what amounts to a salary dump, with the Rams taking on 10.25 of his 15.25 million dollar guaranteed salary, in exchange for a swap of late round picks. Robinson isn’t a bad flier for the Steelers, who desperately needed another receiver to go with top holdovers George Pickens (52/801/4) and Diontae Johnson (86/882/0). 

However, there’s a reason why the Rams were so desperate to move on from Robinson, who they signed to a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal just last off-season. The Rams signed Robinson to that deal even though he struggled mightily in his final season in Chicago in 2021, totaling just a 38/410/1 slash line and averaging 1.13 yards per route run, and he didn’t bounce back in his lone season with the Rams, having an even worse season with a 33/339/3 slash line and a 0.93 yards per route run average. 

It wasn’t totally unreasonable for the Rams to think Robinson would bounce back though, as Robinson was under 30 and, prior to his down 2021 season, Robinson had a 1.80 yards per route run average with an average slash line of 92/1214/8 per 17 games over the first seven seasons of his career before his down 2021 season, despite routinely having below average quarterback play. Now, Robinson is coming off two straight down seasons and going into his age 30 season, so it’s likely he will continue struggling going forward, but he’s also not totally over the hill, so he could have a little bit of bounce back potential. 

Pickens and Johnson will almost definitely remain their top two wide receivers ahead of Robinson. They had similar production last season, but Pickens was much more efficient, with his yardage coming on just 84 targets, as opposed to 147 for Johnson, which was actually the 7th most in the NFL. Johnson has been an inefficient high volume target for years, with 460 targets over the past three seasons, 5th in the NFL among wide receivers over that stretch, but also with just an average 94/989/5 slash line, good for just 6.45 yards per target, very mediocre for a wide receiver, while also dropping 28 passes over that stretch. Now in his age 27 season, Johnson likely is what he is and would remain an underwhelming #1 receiver if he continued serving in that role. 

Pickens, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has a huge upside, so he could easily take a step forward in a bigger target share in his second season in the league, which would come at the expense of Johnson, but which would also likely make this offense more efficient. Pickens might not be a #1 caliber receiver either, still only in his second season in the league, but he’s by far the more efficient of the top two options and he has the upside to be that #1 wide receiver long-term. 

Tight end Pat Freiermuth was actually their most efficient option last season, with a 1.68 yards per route run average last season, as opposed to 1.44 and 1.38 for Johnson and Pickens respectively. That led to him totaling a 63/732/2 slash line on 98 targets, after totaling a 60/497/7 slash line with 1.26 yards per route run on 79 targets as a second round rookie in 2021. Also a solid blocker, Freiermuth has received overall grades of 72.3 and 75.5 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league and, only in his age 25 season, he should remain a solid starting tight end at the very least for years to come, with the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in year three in 2023, especially if this offense is better as a whole than it was a year ago. 

The Steelers also used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Georgia’s Darnell Washington, but that probably says a lot more about the play of incumbent #2 tight end Zach Gentry than it does about Freiermuth, as Gentry struggled mightily with a 47.5 PFF grade overall last season, showing little as a pass catcher (0.71 yards per route run) or run blocker, while playing 577 snaps total. A 5th round pick in 2019, Gentry has been better as a blocker in the past, but he’s never been much of a receiver (0.81 yards per route run average for his career), so Washington could easily cut into his role as a rookie and could easily be an upgrade, even if he has some growing pains in year one.

In terms of wide receiver depth, the Steelers didn’t make any other additions to a thin position group this off-season, leaving 2022 4th round pick Calvin Austin as their likely top reserve, even after he missed his entire rookie season with injury. The rest of this group mostly consists of players with little experience and recent undrafted free agents, with their only other even somewhat experienced receivers being Miles Boykin (35 career catches in 4 seasons in the league) and Gunner Olszewski (14 catches in 4 seasons), who are both underwhelming options and likely are not even guaranteed to make this roster, even in a thin position group. Pickens, Freiermuth, and Johnson are not a bad top trio and this team will likely benefit from Pickens taking more targets at the expense of Johnson in Pickens’ second season in the league, but they’re not a great top trio either and depth is pretty suspect if injuries strike their top-3.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, this team’s turnaround last season coincided with the return of 2021 Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt from injury and, while their weaker schedule had more to do with their turnaround than anything, Watt’s presence was obviously a factor as well, as he finished last season with 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate on 502 snaps in 10 games, while totaling a 82.1 PFF grade, despite not being 100% for most of the season upon his return. 

As dominant as they come at his best, last year was actually a down year for Watt, who previously had grades of 91.3, 91.6, and 89.5 in the three seasons prior to last season, while totaling 52 sacks, 64 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 46 games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, with minimal injury history aside from last season (four games missed in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season), Watt should be able to bounce back to his peak form in 2023, which will obviously have a significant positive impact on this defense.

With Watt missing a lot of last season and not at 100% when he returned, fellow starting edge defender Alex Highsmith picked up some of the slack. His 14.5 sacks led the team and, while his peripheral pass rush stats were not as good, 5 hits and a 10.5% pressure rate, he still earned an overall 78.0 grade from PFF on a snap count of 941. That was a career best year for Highsmith, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 3rd round pick received grades of 72.0 and 67.2 respectively from PFF on snap counts of 440 and 851 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. 

Highsmith might not be able to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, but, at the same time, he’s also only in his age 26 season and could keep getting better. Ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, the Steelers extended Highsmith on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal this off-season, a good deal considering it contained very limited guarantees. He probably won’t have the same sack total in 2023, even if he does play as well or better than he did in 2022, because he didn’t play as well as that sack total suggested in 2023, but he should remain an above average starting option and, with Watt likely much healthier this year, the Steelers have one of the better edge defender duos in the league. 

Depth was a concern for the Steelers at the edge defender position last season and it especially became a problem this off-season when their top reserve Malik Reed (63.8 PFF grade on 396 snaps) signed with the Dolphins, but the Steelers did a pretty good job reloading, signing veteran Markus Golden and using a 4th round pick on Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig. Herbig could struggle in a big role in year one, but he has upside, while Golden should be at least a solid rotational player. 

Golden is going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown many signs of decline yet and has finished above 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 70 and a total of 47 sacks, 92 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate, while averaging 43.9 snaps per game in 111 games. Golden will undoubtedly have a smaller role in Pittsburgh, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he should benefit from that as he goes into his 30s. His best days are almost definitely behind him and he’s never been much of a run defender, but he could easily remain a solid situational pass rusher. With a talented starting duo and adequate depth, this is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Top interior defender Cameron Heyward has been one of the best players in the league at his position for years. A first round pick in 2011, Heyward was a bit of a late bloomer, only breaking out in year four in 2014 with a 75.0 PFF grade, but he has exceeded 75 on PFF in 8 straight healthy seasons since then, including 7 straight healthy seasons over 80. Also a talented run defender, Heyward has totalled 71 sacks, 91 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 135 games since his breakout 2014 season, very impressive numbers for someone who almost exclusively rushes the passer from the interior. 

Heyward is now heading into his age 34 season though, so there’s a strong chance he declines significantly in 2023. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline, with a 89.9 PFF grade (5th among interior defenders), 10.5 sacks (career high), 11 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate last season and, even if he drops off noticeably, he should remain at least an above average starter.

The Steelers will need Heyward to keep playing at a relatively high level because the rest of this position group is pretty mediocre. 

Larry Ogunjobi played 636 snaps last season and had a decent 61.7 PFF grade, but that was the 2nd best grade of his 6-year career and his best grade as a season-long starter, after three straight seasons below 60 from 2019-2021 prior to last season. Ogunjobi isn’t over the hill in his age 29 season, but he could easily regress in 2023 and go back to struggling like he did before last season. He’s not a bad pass rusher, with a career 7.4% pressure rate, but he consistently leaves something to be desired as a run defender and doesn’t rush the passer well enough to make up for it.

Chris Wormley (74.3 PFF grade on 338 snaps last season) was their top interior reserve a year ago, but he’s no longer with the team, leaving Montravius Adams (281 snaps), DeMarcus Leal (175 snaps), and Isaiah Loudermilk (116 snaps) as their top reserves, with second round rookie Keeanu Benton also being added to the mix this off-season. Benton obviously has upside, as does Leal, who was a 3rd round choice a year ago in the 2022 NFL Draft, but Benton could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, while Leal struggled even in his limited rookie year role and is no guarantee to be significantly better in year two. Both could develop into starting caliber players long-term, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will play at that level in 2023.

Loudermilk is also young, but he was only a 5th round pick in 2021 and has struggled mightily thus far in his career, with PFF grades of 42.2 and 47.5 respectively on a total of 404 snaps in two seasons in the league. It’s possible he could have some untapped potential, but he has a long way to go towards even being a capable rotational player and he’s no guarantee to take a step forward in year three. Adams is the relative veteran of the bunch, as the 2017 3rd round pick has played for four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than a decent deep reserve, never playing more than 300 snaps in a season and finishing below 60 in half of his six seasons in the league. There are some reasons to be concerned in a position group that has questionable depth and that is led by a player in his mid 30s, but they do have some young players with upside at least.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Steelers completely overhauled their linebacking corps this off-season, with all three players who saw significant action at this position, Myles Jack (692 snaps), Devin Bush (659 snaps), and Robert Spillane (588 snaps), not being retained this off-season. In their place, the Steelers signed veterans Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts to be the starters and likely play at least close to an every down role, after being signed to contracts worth 18 million over 3 years and 7 million over 2 years respectively. 

Holcomb seems like the better of the two in that role, as the 2019 5th round pick has been in a similar role for most of his career, starting 48 of a possible 50 games, while playing 54.8 snaps per game. However, he also has finished below 60 on PFF in half of his four seasons in the league, while missing 18 games total due to injury over that stretch. He could be a solid option, but he also could struggle and/or miss significant time with injury.

Roberts, meanwhile, has never played more than 676 snaps in a season, while averaging 451 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2016, and even in that relatively limited role as primarily a base package player Roberts has been underwhelming in his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, including each of the past three seasons. He is likely to continue struggling in what could be a career high in snaps for him in 2023, in a thin linebacking corps. He and Holcomb make an underwhelming starting duo.

Depth behind Holcomb and Roberts is a concern too, as the Steelers didn’t add any real depth options to this overhauled group this off-season, and they don’t have any key reserves returning. The closest thing to a key reserve from a year ago that is still on the roster is 2022 7th round pick Mark Robinson, who played just 44 snaps as a rookie and now is likely their top reserve by default, even though he is highly inexperienced and could struggle mightily if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s the 3rd linebacker in an overall very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Steelers also made significant changes in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, the Steelers’ top-4 a year ago in terms of snaps played per game were Cameron Sutton (71.6 PFF grade on 931 snaps), Levi Wallace (62.8 PFF grade on 709 snaps), Arthur Maulet (56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps), and Akhello Witherspoon (45.4 PFF grade on 248 snaps in four games). This year, only Wallace remains, with the rest of the bunch being replaced by veterans Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan, as well as rookie Joey Porter, who they selected with the 32nd overall pick, the first pick in the second round this year and usually the last pick in the first round, making him a borderline first rounder.

Peterson figures to be the best of the bunch, but he’s going into his age 33 season, which means he could drop off significantly. In his prime, Peterson was one of the better cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 75 on PFF in five of seven seasons in his prime, from 2012-2018, and he still had a strong season in 2022, with a 77.8 PFF grade, but he also had three straight seasons below 70 from 2019-2021 and seemed to be declining, before his bounce back 2022 campaign. It’s possible he could continue playing at his 2022 level in 2023, but he also could easily regress and, even if he doesn’t regress significantly, his best days are still almost definitely behind him. 

Still, compared to their other options, Peterson seems like the best of the bunch and their de facto #1 cornerback. Porter has a lot of upside and figures to start even as a rookie, but he could easily have growing pains in year one, even if he ultimately ends up reaching his potential. Wallace has plenty of experience, with 61 starts in 67 games in five seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2018, but he also is coming off four straight seasons in the 60s on PFF, so he’s mostly been a middling starter in his career and, now in his age 28 season, he likely is what he is at this point, decent, but far from spectacular.

Peterson, Porter, and Wallace will likely be their top-3 cornerbacks, but Chandon Sullivan also has experience, with snap counts of 729, 826, and 944 over the past three seasons. The problem is he’s mostly struggled, with grades of 62.2, 55.0, and 55.8 respectively, and the Steelers would probably prefer him to be their 4th cornerback, assuming their top-3 are healthy. Sullivan will probably have to see a significant role at some point, as it’s unlikely all of the Steelers’ top-3 cornerbacks will play in all 17 games, but he is best as a depth option. The Steelers also bring back James Pierre, who played 260 snaps last season and who has been decent on 705 snaps in three seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2020. He will likely compete with 7th round rookie Cory Trice for the final cornerback spot, in a decent, but overall unspectacular group, led by a 33-year-old who has significant potential to decline.

At safety, Terrell Edmonds wasn’t retained this off-season, after posting a 69.1 grade in 15 starts (886 snaps) a year ago. The Steelers signed veteran Keanu Neal in free agency, but he will likely be a depth option, with Damontae Kazee, who played 273 snaps in 9 games as a depth option in an injury plagued season a year ago, likely stepping into Edmonds’ starting spot. Kazee didn’t play much last season, but he had a 77.9 grade on 991 snaps in 2018, a 60.8 grade on 803 snaps in 2019, and a 60.9 grade on 900 snaps in 2021, before excelling (81.0 PFF grade) in limited action a year ago. Kazee is now heading into his age 30 season and has a pretty significant recent injury history (20 games missed in the past three seasons), but he’s been at least a capable starter whenever he’s been called on to start in his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so I wouldn’t expect a massive decline from him.

Keanu Neal, meanwhile, looked like he was on his way towards a promising career after his first couple seasons in the league, posting grades of 75.9 and 78.3 in 30 total starts, after being selected in the first round in 2016. However, he suffered back-to-back serious injuries in the next two seasons (2018 and 2019) and, not only did that limit him to just 203 snaps in 4 games in those two seasons, but it also seems to have completely derailed his once promising career. 

In his first season back from those two injuries in 2020, Neal was still decent, with a 68.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he couldn’t find a starting job available to him in free agency the next off-season and has spent the past two seasons mostly struggling as a reserve, with a 35.9 PFF grade on 579 snaps in 2021 and a 57.7 PFF grade on 580 snaps in 2022. Neal likely won’t start in Pittsburgh either, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he figures to play at least a situational sub package role, with the versatility to line up on the slot and at linebacker in dime packages. Neal is still only in his age 28 season and could still have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling, even in a reserve role.

Fortunately, the Steelers still have Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is not only their top safety, but their top defensive back and one of the best safeties in the league. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, the Steelers gave up a first round pick to acquire him after one year, which was a steep price for a player who had a middling rookie season (61.9 PFF grade on 944 snaps) and who had already used up one of the four cheap, cost controlled years on his rookie deal, but that move actually proved to be a steal, as Fitzpatrick immediately broke out with a 79.8 PFF grade in his first season in Pittsburgh. 

Fitzpatrick then followed that up with a 79.5 PFF grade in 2020 and, while he regressed to 59.8 in 2021, he bounced back in a big way in 2022, with a 82.4 PFF grade. His history is a little inconsistent, but he is one of the best safeties in the league when at his best and, still only in his age 27 season, he has a good chance to continue being at his best in 2023. He elevates a secondary that aside from him is decent, but unspectacular, after even this position group was overhauled this off-season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Steelers went 8-2 with TJ Watt on the field last season and Watt figures to be healthier in 2023, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In those 10 games with Watt, the Steelers played four games against playoff qualifiers, with two of those coming against a team with a backup quarterback, one of which turned out to be a loss. In the other two games, one was a loss to the Bengals, their other loss with Watt on the field, while the other was a win over the Bengals in a game in which the Steelers won the turnover battle by 5, which is not sustainable week-to-week, and still needed the Bengals to miss easy kicks for the game to go to overtime. The Steelers also barely had any other injuries aside from Watt, with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2023.

Overall, the Steelers have a solid roster, but unfortunately they play in by far the tougher of the two conferences and, with many other teams looking better than them entering the season, the Steelers have a pretty narrow path to a post-season berth, which would almost definitely require several teams projected ahead of them to be ravaged by injuries and/or disappoint significant. If they played in the NFC, the Steelers would be very much in the playoff picture, but their odds are much worse in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC North

Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

The Chiefs have the lowest floor of any team in the league because they have the league’s best quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who ensures they will at least have a strong offense. In Mahomes’ five seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterbacks, Mahomes has led the Chiefs’ offense to finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in offensive DVOA, despite changing personnel around him. Offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, especially when a team has an elite quarterback like Mahomes, so the Chiefs should remain a high level offense in 2023, barring an unexpected injury to Mahomes, who has missed just two starts due to injury in his tenure as the starter.

In total, Mahomes has completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions (105.7 QB rating), while receiving grades of 93.2, 83.6, 91.4, 77.1, and 91.3 respectively on PFF, and going 64-16 overall, with his worst season being a 12-5 finish. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Mahomes should continue playing at a dominant level in 2023 and beyond and, as long as he has at least a decent roster around him, he should continue having this team in regular contention for the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ backup will be veteran Blaine Gabbert, who was signed this off-season. Obviously any quarterback who backs up Mahomes would be an obvious downgrade if he had to play in Mahomes’ absence, but Gabbert is probably on the lower end of backups even by that standard. In his career, Gabbert has made 48 starts in 12 seasons in the league with a career QB rating of just 72.6, with just none of those starts coming in the past four seasons, in which he has thrown a total of 35 pass attempts, clearly settled into the backup quarterback stage of his career, after competing for starting jobs in earlier seasons. In his age 34 season, Gabbert is who he is at this stage of his career, a smart backup, but someone you obviously want to avoid having to play, especially when you consider who the regular starter is.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

There were a couple big changes to Mahomes’ supporting cast this off-season. At the tackle position, the Chiefs let free agents Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie walk, signing deals worth 64.092 million over 4 years with the Bengals and 24 million over 3 years with the Commanders respectively, and the Chiefs replaced with them former Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and former Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal. 

Overall, it seems like the Chiefs’ new tackle duo is a downgrade from the previous one. On the left side, Donovan Smith will likely be a downgrade from Orlando Brown, who finished last season with a 75.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. Smith had three straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2021, including a career best 83.3 in 2021, but that fell to 58.1 in 2022 and, while injuries had a lot to do with that, Smith is now heading into his age 30 season, so his best days should be behind him at this point, even if he does have some bounce back potential. He has a good chance to remain a solid starter if he can stay healthy, which isn’t a huge concern, as he’s missed just six games in 8 seasons in the league, but I would still expect him to be a downgrade from the incumbent Orlando Brown.

On the right side, you would think Jawaan Taylor would be a big upgrade on Andrew Wylie, considering the Chiefs gave Taylor a contract that makes him the 5th highest paid offensive tackle and the second highest paid right tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary. However, Taylor was likely overpaid on that contract, as the 2019 2nd round pick has received overall grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in all four seasons in the league. 

Taylor has received grades of 72.0 and 76.4 in pass protection over the past two seasons respectively, but his run blocking still leaves something to be desired and he’s one of the most penalized offensive linemen in the league, with 39 penalties in 66 career games. Even if he might still have untapped upside in his age 26 season, Taylor seems unlikely to live to his contract and the incumbent Wylie, who had a 63.1 PFF grade last season, would have given them a capable starter at a much cheaper price.

The interior of this offensive line was the strength of this group a year ago, even with solid tackle play, and, with all three interior starters returning for 2023, this should remain a strength. Center Creed Humphrey and right tackle Trey Smith were added in the 2021 NFL Draft, in the 2nd and 6th round respectively. Humphrey instantly was one of the best centers in the league, receiving grades of 91.4 and 90.0 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons, and, only in his age 24 season, he seems well on his way towards being one of the best centers in the league for years to come.

Smith, meanwhile, was a steal where he was drafted and only fell because of health concerns that have not been a problem thus far, with Smith missing just one career start in two seasons in the league and showing he should have been a much higher draft pick, with PFF grades of 72.3 and 71.5 respectively. Still only in his age 24 season, Smith should remain an above average starter for years to come and may have the upside to become even better in his third season in the league in 2023.

Left guard Joe Thuney was also added during the 2021 off-season, signed to a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Thuney has consistently been one of the better guards in the league for most of his career, receiving PFF grades of 73.5, 75.7, 77.4, and 74.2 respectively in his final four seasons in New England and then continuing that with the Chiefs, with grades of 80.5 and 77.3 over the past two seasons respectively. His age is a concern, now in his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he should remain at least a solid starter.

The Chiefs will probably have more injuries on the offensive line than a year ago, when their starting five offensive line missed just three starts combined, but they do have decent depth. Lucas Niang is the swing tackle and the 2020 3rd round pick showed promise with a 64.6 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2021, though that season is sandwiched in between a rookie year lost to injury and a 2022 campaign where he saw just 10 snaps, as a reserve on a very healthy offensive line. 

Guard Nick Allegretti played the most snaps of any of their reserves last season, with 286 snaps and 3 starts, and he’s been mostly decent in 12 starts since being selected in the 7th round in 2019, leading to the Chiefs retaining him as a free agent this off-season on a 1-year, 2.5825 million dollar deal to remain a reserve in Kansas City. The Chiefs also have backup center Austin Reiter, who didn’t play a snap last year behind Creed Humphrey, but who made 33 starts from 2019-2021, receiving 63.0 and 70.9 grades in 2019 and 2020 with the Chiefs prior to Humphrey’s arrival, but then falling to 46.9 in 2021 after signing with the Dolphins. The Chiefs would see a dropoff in play if any of their reserves had to see significant action, but they don’t have bad backups and their starting five is one of the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big change to this offense is the loss of top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished last season with a 78/933/3 slash line on 101 targets. Smith-Schuster led a group last season that was already significant different than the year before, most notably losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but also losing five of the six wide receivers who caught a pass for them in 2021, replacing them with Smith-Schuster and fellow free agent addition Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, and eventually former Giants 2021 first round pick Kadarius Toney, who they Chiefs added in a mid-season trade for a third round pick last season. The Chiefs also still had Mecole Hardman last season (25/297/4 slash line on 34 targets), their lone holdover from 2021, though he too left the team this off-season.

With Smith-Schuster and Hardman gone, the Chiefs will be hoping for more out of Moore in his second season in the league and out of Kadarius Toney in his first full season in Kansas City, after they contributed just 313 snaps and 109 snaps during the regular season last year, and the Chiefs also added veteran free agent Richie James and second round pick Rashee Rice. Along with veteran Valdes-Scantling, those aforementioned players will all compete for roles in a pretty wide open receiving corps. 

Valdes-Scantling is likely locked into a starting role, after playing 777 snaps and totaling a 42/687/2 slash line with a 1.24 yards per route run average a year ago, but the 2018 5th round pick is almost definitely not someone who is going to turn into a #1 wide receiver at this stage of his career, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run and not exceeding 700 yards receiving in any of his five seasons in the league, despite spending his whole career with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. He’s not a terrible starter and could see a small uptick in targets this season with Smith-Schuster gone, but even Valdes-Scantling’s middling production has more to do with his quarterback play and the talent around him than anything he does.

Moore and Toney have upside and are likely penciled in as the other two starters with Valdes-Scantling in three wide receiver sets, although they come with downside as well. Moore barely played as rookie and his 1.50 yards per route run in limited action left something to be desired, considering the offense he played on, while Toney has a career 2.12 yards per route run average, but consistent injuries have limited him to just 446 snaps in 19 games in two seasons in the league. Toney seems like the better option of the two, as a former first round pick who has shown a lot of promise thus far in his career, but durability will remain a concern for him and he’s still very unproven, while Moore, despite his underwhelming rookie year, still profiles as a long-term starter as well, even if he might not show it yet in year two. 

Moore and Toney will be pushed for these jobs by the rookie Rashee Rice and the veteran free agent Richie James. Rice has a high upside long-term and has a good chance to make an immediate impact, while James playing in 3-wide receivers would likely be seen as a worst case scenario, as the veteran is a mediocre option who was mostly added for insurance and depth purposes, in an inexperienced receiving corps. James has a career 1.58 yards per route run average and had a 57/569/4 slash line with the Giants in 2022, but he’s mostly been a reserve in his career, with his best slash line prior to 2022 being a 23/394/1 slash line in 2021, and it’s unlikely that he suddenly breaks out in his 6th season in the league in 2023.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, the best receiving tight end in the league and this team’s de facto #1 receiver a year ago, with a 110/1338/12 slash line on 152 targets, in a role in which he will serve again in 2023. Kelce’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he’s been very durable in his career, missing just three games in the past nine seasons combined, and, even if he does decline in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he figures to remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless, exceeding 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run and exceeding 1000 yards receiving in all seven of those seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good again in 2023, he should remain the Chiefs’ top target in the passing game.

Noah Gray, the #2 tight end, also had a pretty significant role in this offense last season for a backup tight end, playing 599 snaps and averaging 1.06 yards per route run with a 28/299/1 slash line on 34 targets. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gray didn’t show much as a rookie and will remain a backup in 2023, but he’s a solid #2 tight end and he may be someone the Chiefs view as a potential long-term successor for Kelce, when Kelce eventually declines or decides to hang them up. With a mostly inexperienced group at wide receiver, expect the Chiefs to continue relying on the tight end position heavily on the passing game. Kelce significantly elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, though there is some concern he may start to decline even somewhat, given his age.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running back has relatively been a position of weakness for the Chiefs on offense in recent years. They attempted to solve the situation by using a 2020 1st round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he has been a disappointment through three seasons in the league. Injuries have been part of the problem, costing him 17 games total, but he also hasn’t been that effective, averaging 4.37 yards per carry on 371 carries and 0.98 yards per route run in his career. Edwards-Helaire will probably remain on the roster for 2023, but the Chiefs have tried trading him and, after declining his 5th year option for 2024, this will likely be Edwards-Helaire’s final season in Kansas City.

With Edwards-Helaire struggling to lock down the running back position, it was actually a much lower draft pick who stabilized the running back position for the Chiefs in 2022, with 7th round rookie Isiah Pacheco giving them their best lead back in years, taking 170 carries for 830 yards (4.88 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, despite having to earn his way into playing time early in the year, with just 44 carries in his first 8 games, before averaging 14.0 carries per game in his final 9 games. 

Pacheco didn’t contribute much in the passing game, with 13 catches and 0.88 yards per route run, but he ran well enough that he should remain the clear lead back and, not having to earn his way into that role early in the season, Pacheco should exceed last year’s carry total, now as a season-long starter. He could regress somewhat and it’s still worth noting that the whole league let him fall to the 7th round a year ago, but he could easily remain a solid early down back and he should have plenty of running room, on an offense where the passing game is a much bigger threat for defenses to worry about.

Pacheco will likely pair with veteran Jerick McKinnon, who only averaged 4.04 YPC on 72 carries a year ago, but who had a 56/512/9 slash line on 71 targets with a 1.50 yards per route run average that ranked 10th in the NFL among running backs. That’s nothing new for McKinnon, whose career 4.05 YPC average on 639 carries in 9 seasons in the league leaves something to be desired, but who also has a yards per route run average of 1.29 for his career and who could continue producing at the level he produced at last season, playing with by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with. 

McKinnon’s age is a concern in his age 31 season, which tends to be when running backs are over the hill, but McKinnon isn’t a traditional running back and doesn’t have the same amount of career usage (883 touches) as most backs in their age 31 season, so he could easily remain a solid pass catching option for another season or two, even if he does start to decline slightly. He and Pacheco complement each other well and should remain a solid, if unspectacular duo in 2023, with Edwards-Helaire as an insurance option.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Chiefs’ offense has been consistently dominant through Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the starter, their defense has consistently left something to be desired, ranking 27th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, and 17th over the past five seasons respectively. In the two seasons where the Chiefs were even average on defense, they won the Super Bowl and that is not a coincidence, as their offense is so good their defense only needs to be a decent complementary unit to them to be the best team in the league. There are reasons to believe the Chiefs can continue being a decent unit on that side of the ball in 2023, like they were in 2022, as they return 8 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from a year ago.

The position group with the most change on this defense is their edge defenders. Frank Clark (716 snaps) was one of the two of their top-10 in terms of snaps to not return in 2023, while Carlos Dunlap (571 snaps), who fell just outside their top-10, also was not brought back this off-season. Both were decent players a year ago, with PFF grades of 67.2 and 66.4 respectively, but the Chiefs used their first round pick on Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah and signed free agent Charles Omenihu to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal and both could be comparable replacements.

Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu are also much younger than Dunlap and Clark, who were going into their age 34 and age 30 seasons respectively, and, as a result, they have the upside to be better than Dunlap and Clark were a year ago. Anudike-Uzomah is obviously a rookie with a high upside and, even with Omenihu going into his 5th season in the league, after being selected in the 5th round in 2019, he’s still only in his age 26 season and could have further untapped upside as well.

Omenihu’s run defense has left something to be desired throughout his career, finishing below 60 in PFF run defense grade in all four seasons in the league, and, in part because of that, he’s been limited to 479 snaps per season, with a max of 572 snaps in a season, coming last season, but he’s also consistently rushed the passer effectively, exceeding 60 in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including pass rush grades of 81.8 and 75.3 over the past two seasons respectively, a stretch in which he has a 12.8% pressure rate, despite lining up on the interior in obvious passing situations somewhat frequently, having the size to do so at 6-5 280. The Chiefs like to use three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, so Omenihu will fit in well and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he set a career high in snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2023.

The Chiefs also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pass rusher, taking George Karlaftis 30th overall. He immediately played a big role as a rookie, seeing 729 snaps, and while he was mediocre overall, with a 52.0 PFF grade, he should remain in a big role in year two and has the upside to take a big step forward. Michael Danna also remains as a holdover, after playing 471 snaps a year ago. A 5th round pick in 2020, Danna has turned into a decent rotational player, with grades of 61.8, 61.7, and 67.4 on PFF on snap counts of 334, 534, and 471 in his three seasons in the league respectively. 

Danna should remain a decent rotational player in 2023, with the upside for more, still only in his age 26 season. The Chiefs also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Stephen F Austin’s BJ Thompson to give themselves even more edge depth, though he won’t be anything more than a deep reserve unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and, in that case, he could easily struggle if forced into a significant role. This is an unspectacular edge defender group, but they’re not a bad group either and they have plenty of upside, with all of their key players being 26 or under and a pair of first round picks from the last two drafts.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Part of the reason why the Chiefs frequently play three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, with one lined up on the interior, is because they lack depth at the interior defender position, especially for interior pass rushers. Fortunately, they do have Chris Jones, who is one of the best pass rushers in the league regardless of position and who almost never comes off the field, ranking 2nd among interior defenders with 920 snaps played last season. 

Jones also ranked 2nd among interior defenders with an overall 91.5 PFF grade last season, playing the run at a high level and excelling with 15.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s nothing new for Jones, who has exceeded 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including three seasons over 90, while totaling 63 sacks, 75 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 91 games (47.6 snaps per game) over that stretch. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Jones in 2023.

Behind him, the Chiefs’ options are limited. Khalen Saunders (421 snaps) and Derrick Nnadi (388 snaps) played the second and third most snaps at the position last season, but Saunders is no longer with the team, after posting a decent 60.2 PFF grade, while Nnadi struggled mightily last season with a 41.3 PFF grade, especially struggling as a pass rusher with just a 2.4% pressure rate. Nnadi has been better in the past against the run, but he’s finished below average on PFF in back-to-back seasons and has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.7% pressure rate in five seasons in the league, since being selected in the 3rd round by the Chiefs in 2018. Nnadi will almost definitely start in base packages, but only for lack of a better option. 

After Jones and Nnadi, the Chiefs’ top veteran reserve option is Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 66.2 PFF grade on 518 snaps as a rookie, but then fell all the way to 43.3 on 501 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, before suffering a torn ACL midway through the 2022 season, limiting him to mediocre 149 snaps in 5 games. Wharton should be healthy for the start of the 2023 season, but he might not be 100% right away and he’s now three years removed from his last healthy season as a solid rotational reserve, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. The Chiefs also used a 6th round pick on Texas’ Keondre Coburn, who could have to play a role as a rookie, even despite being a late round pick. Chris Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs retain their top-2 off ball linebackers from a year ago, which is a good thing, as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay played well in significant roles, with PFF grades of 75.7 and 69.6 on snap counts of 1,118 and 607 respectively. Both were recent second round picks, Bolton in 2021 and Gay in 2020, and both flashed potential earlier in their career, both career best years in 2022, with Bolton playing 623 snaps and receiving a 69.2 PFF grade as a rookie and Gay playing snap counts of 269 and 436 over his first two seasons in the league and receiving grades of 68.1 and 55.7 respectively. It’s possible both won’t repeat the best year of their career again in 2023, but it’s also possible that they continue developing and become even better. They are one of the best young linebacker duos in the league.

Despite already having Bolton and Gay, the Chiefs were surprisingly able to sign former Charger Drue Tranquill to a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency. Tranquill played 977 snaps last season and received a 66.5 grade from PFF and, only in his age 28 season, seemed like he should have been getting a starting job somewhere, but in Kansas City he’ll be the third linebacker, a role in which the now departed Darius Harris only played 292 snaps last season (64.4 PFF grade), mostly when Gay was out for a 4-game stretch due to suspension.

Tranquill also had a PFF grade of 66.6 on 382 snaps in 2019 and a PFF grade of 64.6 on 560 snaps in 2021, with an injury plagued year in between, so he is relatively proven and gives the Chiefs great depth in case an injury strikes ahead of him on the depth chart. The Chiefs also used a 3rd round pick in 2022 on Leo Chenal and he showed some promise on 262 snaps as a rookie, so they have a very deep and talented group at this position. 

Grade: A-

Secondary

The other starter the Chiefs lost in this defense this off-season was safety Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts, but whose departure the Chiefs were prepared for, using a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Bryan Cook, who flashed potential on 341 snaps as a rookie and who profiles as a solid starter long-term. He will start next to Justin Reid, who remains the starter after being added on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. 

Reid was a 3rd round pick of the Texans in 2018 and immediately had back-to-back above average seasons in his first two years in the league, with grades of 75.2 and 76.7 on snap counts of 906 and 916 respectively, but he came relatively cheap to the Chiefs last off-season because he had back-to-back down years in 2020 and 2021, with grades of 60.7 and 50.9 on snap counts of 888 and 780 respectively. However, Reid bounced back with a 73.2 PFF grade on 1,112 snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2022 and, still only in his age 26 season, he has a good chance to remain a solid starter, even if there’s some risk of him regressing, given his inconsistent past. 

The Chiefs also added veteran Mike Edwards this off-season, to potentially push the young Bryan Cook for the starting job, but most likely to just be an above average third starter, and they also used a 4th round pick on Virginia Tech’s Chamarri Conner, to give them even more depth at the position. Edwards, a 3rd round pick of the Buccaneers in 2019, was a de facto third safety for much of his time in Tampa Bay, but he did flash potential with grades of 77.0 and 73.6 on snap counts of 189 and 532 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, though he was inconsistent and could never translate it to a larger role, with grades of 58.2 and 56.7 on snap counts of 614 and 814 in 2019 and 2022 respectively as well, with his down 2022 season likely being the cause of his deflated free agent market (1-year, 3 million). Still, he’s great depth to have.

At cornerback, the Chiefs return their top-4 from a year ago in terms of snaps played, L’Jarius Sneed (1,106 snaps), Trent McDuffie (683 snaps), Jaylen Watson (604 snaps) and Joshua Williams (437 snaps), and all four are young players with the upside to be better. McDuffie, Watson, and Williams were all drafted just last year, going in the 1st, 7th, and 4th round respectively. McDuffie was a starter in 2022, missing six games with injury, but averaging 62.1 snaps per game when he played and showing the talent that made him a first round pick, with a 73.6 PFF grade. He should remain a starter in 2023 and has the upside to develop into an above average starting cornerback for years to come. 

L’Jarius Sneed is also likely to remain the other starter, after posting a 76.1 grade in 2022. The relative elder of this group, Sneed was a 4th round pick in 2020, flashing talent with a 72.9 PFF grade on 410 snaps as a rookie, posting a 64.1 PFF grade on 918 snaps as a starter in 2021, before breaking out with his career best year in 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter and, given that, he could regress a little in 2023, but, even if he does, he should at least remain a solid starter and, only in his age 26 season, he could easily remain an above average starter for years to come. 

McDuffie and Sneed starting will leave Watson and Williams competing for the third cornerback job. Watson played more snaps last season, but Williams was the better player (60.6 PFF grade vs. 56.1) and was the higher draft pick, so he might have the inside track on the third cornerback job in year two. Williams might not have a huge upside, but he seems like a better option than Watson, who was actually mostly a liability for this secondary last season, even in limited action. This is a young secondary overall, but they have a lot of upside and depth and it’s generally a solid group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Not a lot has changed for the defending Super Bowl Champions, who should remain one of the top few contenders in the league again in 2023, with Patrick Mahomes leading an offense that will remain dominant as long as they have their franchise quarterback on the field, and a defense that looks likely to be a decent complementary unit again in 2023. It’s a tough path out of the AFC for any contender and there’s a good reason why we haven’t had a repeat champ in two decades, but the Chiefs have as good of a chance as anyone to make it back to the top. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West

Cleveland Browns 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Quarterback

The Browns thought they had solved their long standing quarterback issues when they selected quarterback Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and then watched him instantly be a solid starter as a rookie, completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.66 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Mayfield regressed in year two, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but seemed to bounce back in year three, completing 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions during the 2020 regular season and then leading the Browns to their first post-season victory since 1994. 

However, Mayfield again regressed in an injury plagued 2021 season, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With Mayfield’s rookie contract nearing the end and his salary about to increase significantly in 2022, the Browns opted to move on from Mayfield and shoot higher at the quarterback position. Mayfield’s tenure as the Browns’ starting quarterback coincided with their most successful team stretch in years, but the Browns also had the most talent around the quarterback that they had in years and they felt that Mayfield, who only averaged 32.1 pass attempts per start on a run-heavy team, was not the reason they were winning and that, in order to get to their ultimate goal, they needed an upgrade at the position. 

In order to find that upgrade, the Browns took a controversial approach, not only entering the running to trade for disgraced Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, a highly talented quarterback with a very concerning off-the-field situation, but also going above and beyond to acquire Watson, outbidding all other teams by giving up a trio of first round picks and guaranteeing Watson a long-term 5-year, 230 million dollar deal upon arrival in Cleveland. The Browns also did that without first finding a home for Mayfield and ended up having to eat most of Mayfield’s salary just to get a late round pick back for him in a trade, when they sent him to the Carolina Panthers. 

Watson missed his entire 2021 season because of his off-the-field situation and was set to face a significant suspension in his first season in Cleveland, but the Browns still paid him 45.3675 million in his first year with the team and structured it in a way that he would make almost all of that money even if he was suspended for all of most of the 2023 season. That suspension ended up being 11 games and, while Watson returned for the final 6 games of the season, he seemed like a shell of himself, completing just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 7.47 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries and accumulating an overall 55.3 PFF grade. The Browns did go 3-3 in those games, as opposed to 4-7 without Watson, but that was primarily because their defense was much better in the games that Watson played. 

In Watson’s last full season in 2020, he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries and accumulating an overall 92.4 PFF grade. That was in line with how he played in 2018 and 2019, when he completed a combined 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, while rushing for 5.33 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 181 carries and receiving PFF grades of 82.7 and 81.3 respectively in those two seasons. 

Still only in his age 28 season, Watson has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, after another year of building chemistry with his new teammates and learning this new scheme, but it’s concerning that he’s two seasons removed from his last impressive season, given how much the Browns have invested and risked to get Watson as their quarterback, and it’s possible Watson will never be as good as he was in Houston, in a new city, with new teammates, having permanently damaged his reputation around the league.

Jacoby Brissett, who the Browns added to be Watson’s replacement when he was suspended last year, actually outplayed Watson by a pretty big amount, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts. With Watson set to play a full season in 2023, Brissett wasn’t retained this off-season, so the pressure will be on Watson to bounce back to something resembling his old form, with his backup likely to be Josh Dobbs, a 2017 4th round pick who made the first two starts of his career last season and who has just a 66.6 QB rating on 85 pass attempts in his career. The Browns also used a 5th round pick on UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson as a potential long-term backup and there’s a chance he could beat out Dobbs as early as year one, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into extended starting action. There’s plenty of upside here, but plenty of downside as well.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

If the Browns are unable to be true contenders this year, the blame will likely fall on the quarterback, as the Browns still have one of the more talented rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. Their biggest strength is probably their offensive line, which has been a big strength for the past several years, including a 2022 campaign in which they ranked 7th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 8th in team run blocking grade, making life easier for the spot starter Brissett and making Watson’s struggles even more concerning. With all five starters returning from a year ago, I would expect more of the same in 2023.

In fact, not only are all five starters returning from a year ago, but four of the five starters have been together for three seasons, with the only relatively new member of this offensive line being Ethan Pocic, who they signed last off-season on a cheap 1-year, 1.1875 million dollar deal as a replacement option for retiring long-time Browns center JC Tretter. Pocic proved to be a steal on that one-year deal, breaking out with by far a career best 78.9 PFF grade, 3rd in the NFL among eligible centers. There’s a reason Pocic was available so cheap last off-season though, as Pocic was a mediocre and injury prone starter for most of his the first five seasons of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons, with no seasons above 70, and 24 games missed due to injury. 

Pocic was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and his two best seasons before joining the Browns were 2020 (62.4 in 14 starts) and 2021 (67.3 in 10 starts), so it’s possible Pocic is just a late bloomer who will continue being an above average starter going forward, but, even if that’s the case, Pocic is still as unlikely to be quite as good as he was a year ago again in 2023 and even last season he did miss another 4 games with injury, so he’s a good bet to miss more time at some point this season, and it’s possible he could regress significantly. The Browns only paid 18 million on a 3-year deal to keep him this off-season, which is not a bad deal at all considering his upside, but it seems more likely than not that he won’t be as good as he was a year ago again in 2023.

Fortunately, the Browns do have a couple starters who could be better this year than a year ago, most notably right guard Wyatt Teller. Teller wasn’t bad in 2022 with a 70.3 PFF grade, but that’s a big drop off from the 92.7 grade he had in 2020 and the 84.9 grade he had in 2021 and that drop off was likely caused by injuries that caused him to miss two games and seemed to limit him in several others. Still only in his age 29 season, Teller has a good chance to bounce back and be better in 2023 if he can stay healthier. 

Right tackle Jack Conklin is also coming off of a down year, as his 66.7 PFF grade in 14 starts last season was actually the worst of his 7-year career. With five seasons over 70 and three seasons over 80 in his career, and only going into his age 29 season, Conklin would seem to have a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, but he does have a concerning injury history, with 21 games missed in the past five seasons combined, including a torn patellar tendon that ended his 2021 season after 7 starts and that could have easily been the cause of his down 2022 season. It’s possible he’ll never be the same again after that injury, which is one of the most serious an athlete can suffer, but I wouldn’t expect him to decline any further at the moment, so he should remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more if he can find his old form. 

Left guard Joel Bitonio was probably their best offensive lineman a year ago, with a 87.5 PFF grade on 17 starts, and he has been one of the best guards in the league for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so there is some concern that he could decline, at least somewhat in 2023. He’s exceeded 70 on PFF in all but one of his 9 seasons in the league, all with the Browns who selected him in the 2nd round in 2014, and his last three seasons have actually been the best 3-year stretch of his career, with PFF grades above 80 in all 3 seasons, including a career best 93.6 as recently as 2021, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2023, he is declining from a pretty high level and should at least remain an above average starter. However, a noticeable decline from him would hurt this offensive line at least a little bit.

Left tackle Jedrick Wills was probably their weakest starter a year ago, which has been the case for a few years, since Wills entered the league in 2020, but that’s mostly just because of how good the rest of this offensive line has been, as he has finished with a grade in the 60s on PFF in all three seasons in the league and has the upside for more, as a former 10th overall pick who is still only going into his age 24 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2023 proved to be the best year of Wills’ career thus far and a significant breakout is a possibility as well. Even if he doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a capable blindside protector.

For reserves, the Browns top options are swing tackle James Hudson and interior reserve Nick Harris. Hudson was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played snap counts of 296 and 303 over the past two seasons and hasn’t been horrible, with grades of 57.3 and 57.8 respectively, which he could prove upon going forward, given his upside, but he also could be a liability if he had to start for an extended period of time. 

Harris, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2020 and was supposed to be their starting center in 2022, but he suffered an injury in the pre-season that knocked him out for the year and opened up the job for Pocic. Harris still has upside, but he’s also only made two career starts thus far and he’s coming off of a significant injury, so it’s questionable how he would fare if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. The Browns’ depth options could be better, but they have one of the best starting offensive lines in the league and, even if they lose a starter or two and have to replace them with a mediocre reserve, they could still remain an above average offensive line.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Browns also have a strong running game, led by top back Nick Chubb, who took 302 carries for 1,525 yards (5.05 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last season, finishing 3rd in the league in rushing. That’s nothing new for Chubb, who has excelled throughout his career as a lead back, especially behind this offensive line, rushing for 5.24 YPC and 48 touchdowns on 1,210 carries in five seasons in the league, including 5.35 YPC and 32 touchdowns on 720 carries over the past three seasons. In terms of PFF grade, Chubb has exceeded 80 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a career best 90.3 last season, 2nd among eligible running backs. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, the 2018 2nd round pick should continue excelling as a runner this season.

Kareem Hunt actually had 123 carries as Chubb’s backup last season, as the Browns were a run heavy team, ranking 5th in the NFL with 532 carries. Hunt is no longer with the team, but the Browns are likely to pass more in 2023 anyway with Watson in his first full season as the starter and Watson will take off and run often by himself, so I wouldn’t expect the Browns’ #2 running back to get nearly as many carries this season. Hunt also only had a 3.80 YPC average last season anyway, so he won’t be missed too much. However, Chubb has never done much on passing downs (0.96 yards per route run, 119 catches in 75 career games), so there will be passing down work available for backup running backs.

Jerome Ford, a 5th round pick in 2022, is the leading candidate for the top reserve role, but he only played 14 snaps as a rookie, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role, even if he does have the upside to take a step forward in year two. Ford caught 21 passes for 220 yards in his final collegiate season in 2021, so he has shown some potential in passing situations, but he probably won’t have as much as Hunt did (1.29 yards per route run average for his career), so Chubb could see a few more balls go his way through the air this season.

Behind Ford, options are even more limited. John Kelly was a 6th round pick by the Rams in 2018, but has just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries (3.00 YPC) in his career. Demetric Felton is a hybrid running back/wide receiver and could play a role as a passing down option, but he only has 8 career carries and 20 career catches on 205 career snaps in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021 and is probably not capable of handling a big load as a runner at just 5-9 190. Behind Kelly and Felton, this depth chart consists of recent undrafted free agents with no career touches. The Browns have a great lead back in Nick Chubb, but he’s not great in passing down situations and their depth behind him is questionable, so they would be in trouble if Chubb missed extended time and they could benefit from adding a veteran before training camp to give them added depth.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Browns receiving corps was a bit of a weakness last season. Top wide receiver Amari Cooper had a great year, with a 78/1160/9 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 81.2 PFF grade, producing well despite inconsistent quarterback play. With a 1.88 career yards per route run average, a career 81/1120/7 average slash line per 17 games, and seven seasons above 70 on PFF, last season was not out of the ordinary for Cooper, who should continue playing at a similar level again in 2023, still only in his age 29 season. However, the rest of this wide receiver group was mediocre last season, so the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman and traded away the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital to acquire 2021 2nd round pick Elijah Moore from the Jets. 

Moore is the much more likely of the two to make an impact in 2023. He flashed a lot of potential with a 71.2 PFF grade, 43/538/5 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, but he fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season in year two and had just a 57.5 PFF grade, 37/446/1 slash line, and 0.90 yards per route run in a reduced role, before ultimately getting traded this off-season. Only in his age 23 season, Moore still has a lot of potential and the Browns clearly value him, trading away significant draft capital for him, despite him only having two years left on his contract. He could prove to be a disappointment, but he also has breakout potential in what could be a big role as the #2 wide receiver on what should be a much pass heavier offense this season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones was the #2 wide receiver last season with a 61/839/3 slash line on 96 targets, but his 1.46 yards per route run average was middling at best and his career yards per route run of 1.56 isn’t much better, so the 2020 6th round pick would probably be better off as the third wide receiver. The rookie Tillman could also push for a role in year one, which would also cut into Peoples-Jones playing time and targets. 

The Browns also used 3rd round picks in 2021 and 2022 on wide receivers Anthony Schwartz and David Bell and Bell actually played 514 snaps as the third receiver last season, but they have averaged just 0.70 yards per route run and 0.82 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, with Moore and Tillman being brought in, as well as 6th round rookie Michael Woods, both Schwartz and Bell are likely to be on the roster bubble this season and are unlikely to make much of an impact even if they do make the team. Bell moving from the #3 wide receiver role, in which he struggled mightily in 2022 (113th out of 115 eligible wide receivers on PFF), to potentially being off the roster shows how this group is now significantly deeper than a year ago.

With inconsistent play at wide receiver behind Amari Cooper last season, tight end David Njoku was actually second on the team with a 1.55 yards per route run average, leading to a 58/628/4 slash line in 14 games, a career best in both yards per route run and yards per game. His 73.7 PFF grade was also the best of his career. A first round pick in 2017, Njoku hasn’t quite lived up to the billing, but he has exceeded 60 on PFF in every healthy season in the league and he’s gotten more playing time in recent years after splitting snaps earlier in his career. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a solid, if unspectacular tight end option. The Browns are deeper at wide receiver than a year ago so Njoku might not have the same target share, but there also probably will be more targets to go route on what will likely be a more pass-heavy team this year.

Harrison Bryant played 563 snaps as the #2 tight end last season, as the Browns ran two-tight sets often to mask their lack of wide receiver depth. They probably won’t run as many this season, so there will likely be fewer snaps for a #2 tight end, and Bryant has been a decent option throughout his career, as the 2020 4th round pick has played 518 snaps per season, holding up as a blocker, averaging 1.08 yards per route run route, and posting overall grades of 60.7, 64.8, and 59.3 respectively on PFF, but the Browns also still felt the need to add another tight end this off-season, signing veteran Jordan Akins, a former starter with the Texans. Akins has never exceeded 500 yards receiving in a season and he’s now going into his age 31 season, but he does have a decent 1.27 yards per route average for his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so he could contribute in a limited role, at a deep tight end position. This isn’t a great receiving corps, but they are definitely better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Browns still finished the 2022 season 8th in offensive DVOA, even with Deshaun Watson missing most of the season and struggling upon his return. With Watson having bounce back potential in his first year as a full season starter in Cleveland, the Browns’ offense has a good chance to be a high level unit in 2023, but their defense was a problem a year ago, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. Fortunately, there are reasons to be optimistic on this side of the ball. For one, defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Browns are more talented on defense than their rank last season, so they have a good chance to regress to the mean and be at least an average defense this season. 

They also should be healthier, after having the 9th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense in 2022, and they have made some key additions, including new talented defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. From an on-the-field standpoint, probably their biggest addition was interior defensive Dalvin Tomlinson, who comes over from the Vikings on a 4-year, 57 million dollar deal, giving the Browns a huge upgrade at a position where the Browns best player a year ago was Taven Bryan, who only had a 60.0 grade on 642 snaps and who is no longer on the team. 

Aside from Bryant, the Browns top interior defenders a year ago 2020 3rd round pick Jordan Elliott (703 snaps), 2022 4th round pick Perrion Winfrey (342 snaps), and 2021 4th round pick Tommy Togiai (225 snaps), who had grades of 40.4, 37.3, and 41.6 respectively on PFF. They’re all young, remain on the roster, and still have upside, but they have a long way to go towards being even decent rotational players, with Elliott also receiving grades of 55.3 and 41.6 on snap counts of 307 and 464 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and Togiai struggling mightily on just 125 snaps as a rookie before struggling mightily again last season.

Tomlinson, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, on an average of 610 snaps per game, and he should continue doing so in 2023, still only going in his age 29 season. He’s at his best as a run defender, but he’s become a better pass rusher in recent years, with 8.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. He’s a huge addition at a position of need. The Browns also added Baylor’s Siaka Ika in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and he will compete to play a role right away. He will probably have some growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the Browns’ other young interior defenders. 

The Browns also took fliers on Trysten Hill and Maurice Hurst in free agency and they will compete for roles as well, though they could just as easily wind up off the final roster. Hill was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries and inconsistent play have limited him to 733 snaps played in 31 games in four seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 25 and he has shown a little potential with grades of 65.3 and 62.8 over the past two seasons, but that has been on snap counts of just 171 and 229 respectively, so he’s still a projection to anything more than a deep rotational role.

Hurst has also had injury issues throughout his career, only playing in 42 of 82 possible games in five seasons in the league, including just two games (41 snaps) over the past two seasons. In his healthiest seasons, he has received grades of 71.4, 73.1, and 77.9 on PFF on snap counts of 472 snaps, 522 snaps, and 277 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, playing the run well and managing a 7.7% pressure rate, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so there’s potential here if he can stay healthy. However, that’s a big if and it’s possible that injuries have sapped his abilities and that, even if he can stay on the field, he might not be as effective as he once was. The Browns added talent to the interior defender position this off-season, particularly free agent Dalvin Tomlinson, and they have options with upside aside from him, but none of those other options are guarantees, as it’s a mix of inexperienced and unproven young players and players with significant injury histories. 

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Browns also signed edge defender Za’Darius Smith in free agency to replace free agent departure Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was allowed to leave despite a 75.8 PFF grade a year ago, but he also consistently had injury problems, including injuries that limited him to just 494 snaps played in 12 games last season, and Smith is a similar caliber player who will likely be more durable and who could even prove to be an upgrade over Clowney, who was good, but not great in his tenure in Cleveland.

Excluding an injury plagued 2021 season, Smith has played 49.9 snaps per game while playing 64 of a possible 65 games in his last 4 seasons and topping 70 overall on PFF in all four of those seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 44.5 sacks, 71 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Smith is now heading into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, with a 82.2 PFF grade in 2022, second best of his career. Even if he isn’t quite as good as that again in 2023, he should remain an above average every down starter for the Browns, barring an unexpected massive decline.

Smith will start next to Myles Garrett, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Garrett has had a grade of 80 or higher on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including back-to-back seasons over 90 over the past two seasons, when he has had 32 sacks, 27 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 33 games. Very much in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, Garrett should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates going into this season.

Depth was a problem for the Browns at the edge defender position a year ago, with Alex Wright posting just a 38.4 grade on 543 snaps as the top reserve, but the 2022 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league and he’s unlikely to have to play as play of a role anyway, with the Browns adding veteran Ogbo Okoronkwo in free agency on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal and using a 4th round pick on Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire. McGuire might be too raw to contribute beyond a deep rotational role in year one, but Okoronkwo is a talented rotational edge defender who figures to have a positive impact.

Okoronkwo was buried on the depth chart in a talented position group early in his career with the Rams, despite being a 5th round pick in 2018, playing just 528 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league combined, but he impressed with a 12.5% pressure rate in limited action and carried that into a larger role with the Texans in 2022, playing 517 snaps, receiving a 75.1 overall grade from PFF, and totaling 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in a part-time role. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. WIth Garrett, Smith, and Okoronkwo as the Browns’ top-3 edge defenders and Wright and McGuire having upside behind them, this is an impressive position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The group where the Browns had the most injuries on defense last season was their linebacking corps. The Browns entered last season with a pair of talented every down options, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a good third option Sione Takitaki, who could also play a bigger role if needed. However, Walker went down from the year with injury after 120 snaps in 3 games, excelling with a 82.7 PFF grade, while Owusu-Koramoah also had a solid season with a 65.5 PFF grade, but was limited to 535 snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Takitaki also had a solid 66.5 grade in an extended role of 41.5 snaps per game, but he also missed time, limited to 12 games, leaving Deion Jones (422 snaps), Jacob Phillips (320 snaps), Tony Fields (276 snaps), Jordan Kunaszyk (101 snaps), and Jermaine Carter (93 snaps) to all see snaps and all of them struggled, finishing below 60 on PFF. 

Walker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Takitaki should all be back healthy for 2023 and have the potential to be the above average group they would have been last season if they had been healthy. Walker’s grade in his limited action last season was a fluke for him, as he’s never even exceeded 70 on PFF in another season, but he’s also exceeded 60 on all but one of his six seasons in the league, including a 69.1 grade on 701 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021. Still only in his age 28 season, having played an average of 726 snaps per season in his four seasons prior to last year, Walker should remain at least a solid player in close to an every down role in 2023.

Owusu-Koramoah has the highest upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2021, had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie, and then had a grade of 69.5 through 7 games last season before getting hurt. He’s still pretty inexperienced with an average of 566 snaps played per season played in two years in the league, but he has a high upside and is only going into his age 24 season, so he could easily take a step forward and be an above average player in an every down role for a full season in 2023.

Takitaki, meanwhile, has never played more in a season than the 498 snaps he played last season, but the 2019 3rd round pick has received grades of 64.4, 71.2, 67.5, and 66.5 in his four seasons in the league and would seem to have the upside to hold up in a larger role for an extended period of time if he ever got the chance without getting hurt himself, like he did a year ago. Still only going into his age 28 season, he is one of the best third linebackers in the league and, with the Browns running a 4-3 defense, he will play at least a part-time role in base packages, while providing useful depth in case Walker or Owusu-Koramoah get hurt again. With his rookie deal expired, the Browns kept him on a reasonable 1-year, 2.43 million dollar deal in free agency. 

The Browns also still have 2020 3rd round pick Jacob Phillips, 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, and 2019 undrafted free agent Kunaszyk, but Phillips has mostly struggled while playing just 612 total career snaps in three seasons in the league, Fields didn’t play a snap as a rookie, before struggling in a limited role last season, while Kunaszyk has only played 121 defensive snaps in four seasons in the league and has shown very little promise. They’re not horrible depth options though, at a position group with a talented top trio, which should stay a lot healthier than a year ago, when their depth was exposed in a way that is more than any team would expect to have to deal with.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Browns overhauled the safety position this off-season. John Johnson wasn’t bad with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts last season (1,056 snaps), but he wasn’t worth the 9.75 million he was owed for 2023, so the Browns understandably let him go and they also let go of Ronnie Harrison, who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 259 snaps. In their place, the Browns signed veteran starters Juan Thornhill and Rodney McLeod in free agency, to contracts worth 21 million over 3 years and 1.3175 million over 1 year respectively. They will compete for the two starting roles with top holdover Grant Delpit, who had a 63.6 PFF grade in 17 starts (1,086 snaps). 

Delpit was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and, while the early part of his career was injury plagued, costing him 18 games in his first two seasons, including his entire rookie season, he still had a decent 63.3 grade in 15 starts when on the field in his second season in the league in 2021 and he continued that in a healthier 2022 season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Delpit should remain at least a decent starter in 2023, with the upside for more if he takes a step forward and has the best season of his career in his fourth season in the league. He will likely keep his starting job, even with free agent additions Thornhill and McLeod both being experienced starters.

Thornhill’s contract suggests he’s much more likely to start than McLeod and he’s been a solid starter for most of his career, since going in the 2nd round in 2019. He slipped to 52.8 on PFF in 2020 after his 2019 season ended with an ACL tear, but, aside from that, he has grades of 71.5, 70.2, and most recently 67.1 in his career and should remain a solid starter in his age 28 season in 2023. McLeod, however, was actually the better player a year ago, with a 80.1 grade in 15 starts. 

McLeod came cheap because he’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s been a solid starter for years, with 122 starts in 124 games in the past nine seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF in each of those seasons, including six seasons over 70 and what was actually a career best in 2022, despite his age. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, especially given his age, but he could still remain a starting caliber player and, even if he doesn’t secure a starting job, with Delpit and Thornhill being the favorites, McLeod is still a great insurance and situational option to have.

The Browns also have a good trio at the cornerback position. Denzel Ward is supposed to be the best of the bunch, signed to a 5-year, 100.5 million dollar extension that makes him the 2nd highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he did fall to 56.3 in PFF grade last year and was part of the problem for this defense. However, there’s a reason he got that contract in the first place, as he received grades of 78.9, 69.9, 72.8, and 76.9 from PFF in his first four seasons in the league, after going 4th overall in 2018, and his struggles in 2022 were likely injury related, so he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 26 season. Durability has been a problem for him throughout a career, missing at least two games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, so he’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this year, but he has a good chance to be an above average starter again when on the field.

Greg Newsome was also a first round pick, selected 26th overall in 2021. He hasn’t been bad through two seasons in the league, with grades of 68.1 and 69.1 on snap counts of 691 and 907 respectively, and he has the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he may have been surpassed on the depth chart, to no fault of his own, by Martin Emerson, a 2022 3rd round pick who had an impressive 72.5 grade on 783 snaps as a rookie. Both Emerson and Newsome will play big roles in 2023 and both have a lot of upside, but it’s possible Emerson ends up as the de facto #2 cornerback, with Newsome being more of a slot specialist.

Behind their top-3 at cornerback, the Browns have 2021 6th round pick Thomas Graham, who has flashed potential, but who has played just 149 snaps in his career, 2020 undrafted free agent AJ Green, who has been up and down in 319 career snaps, 2018 undrafted free agent Mike Ford, a career reserve who has never played more than 316 snaps in a season, and 5th round rookie Cameron Mitchell, who is likely too raw to make a significant impact as a rookie. Those are all underwhelming options, so the Browns could be in a little bit of trouble if they suffer one or especially multiple injuries at the cornerback position, but this is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns are stuck in by far the tougher of the two conferences, but even still they are a very talented team that has some sleeper potential. Their potential hinges on quarterback Deshaun Watson returning to form, or at least close to it, but the Browns surround him with a great offensive line and running game, and an improved receiving corps, on an offense that ranked 8th in DVOA last season, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Their defense, on the other hand, ranked just 23rd in DVOA last season, but they should be better this season.

Dalvin Tomlinson upgrades the interior defender position. Za’Darius Smith is likely to be healthier than Jadeveon Clowney at the edge defender position. They’ll likely have better health in the linebacking corps, and they’ll likely get a bounce back year from expected top cornerback Denzel Ward, as well as an improved coaching staff, led by experienced coordinator Jim Schwartz. They have the talent to be an above average unit on defense, as well as on offense, and they should at least compete for a playoff spot, even with as many other contenders as there are in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

In 2019, the Bengals finished with the worst record in the league at 2-14, securing them the #1 pick and elite quarterback prospect Joe Burrow. Burrow took his rookie year lumps on a mediocre team and had about half his season wiped out due to a torn ACL, leading to the Bengals once again being among the worst teams in the league at 4-11-1. However, the Bengals kept building their supporting cast around Burrow through free agency and the draft and Burrow’s play took off upon his return from injury in his second season in the league in 2021. 

In that first season back, Burrow led the Bengals solid 10-7 regular season record and then took the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, coming within a blown 4th quarter lead of winning the whole thing. The Bengals then followed that up with a 12-4-1 season in 2022 in which they narrowly lost in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, with their season ending just short of another Super Bowl appearance. This season looks likely to be another season in contention, with the Bengals returning most of the same roster from a year ago.

He has a lot of help, but quarterback Joe Burrow is obviously what makes this team go, completing 69.2% of his passes for 8.07 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons, while posting grades of 91.7 (2nd among quarterbacks) and 90.8 (3rd) respectively on PFF. Still only in his age 27 season, Burrow should remain one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Bengals need to figure out a long-term extension with him, now eligible after three years in the league, but they do have two years before he could theoretically hit free agency and, while they will almost definitely have to give him a top of the market deal whenever he does sign, Burrow figures to be worth it long-term.

If Burrow happens to get hurt, the Bengals would obviously be in a lot of trouble, turning to veteran backup Trevor Siemian, who has a 81.1 QB rating in 30 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2015. He’s not a terrible backup, but the Bengals obviously don’t want to see him in the game in meaningful situations, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league topping the depth chart.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Two of the biggest additions the Bengals have made around Joe Burrow in recent years is getting him a pair of talented young wide receivers to throw to, adding Tee Higgins in the 2nd round in 2020 and JaMarr Chase in the 1st round in 2021 to a receiving corps that already had Tyler Boyd, a former 1000+ yard receiver in his own right (2018 and 2019). Chase burst onto the scene with a 81/1455/13 slash line as a rookie and then he had a 87/1046/9 slash line in 2022 even though he was limited to 12 games by injury. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had a 67/908/6 slash line as a rookie, a 74/1091/6 slash line in 2021, and a 74/1029/7 slash line in 2022, giving the Bengals one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2022. On most teams, Higgins would be the #1 receiver, but he’s the de facto #2 wide receiver in Cincinnati behind Chase. With Chase and Higgins in only their age 23 and age 24 respectively, they should continue being high level players for years to come and it’s possible that both players could keep getting even better.

With Chase and Higgins coming in, Tyler Boyd has obviously had to take on a smaller role in recent years, but Boyd has still found ways to be productive, with slash lines of 79/841/4, 67/828/5, and 58/762/5 respectively over the past three seasons, with the last two coming on target totals of just 94 and 82. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Boyd in 2023, who would be a #2 and or even a #1 wide receiver on many other teams around the league.

The Bengals haven’t gotten much out of the tight end position in the past few years, with CJ Uzomah putting up a 49/493/5 slash line on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2021 and Hayden Hurst putting up 52/414/2 on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2022, and that figures to remain the same in 2023, with the Bengals only taking a flier on former Vikings tight end Irv Smith in free agency to replace Hurst this off-season. 

Smith was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is still only in his age 25 season, so he has upside and was a worthwhile signing on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal, but his career 1.12 yards per route run average is mediocre even for a tight end, he’s not a great blocker, and he’s missed 29 games with injury in four seasons in the league, so he might not contribute that much. The Bengals probably won’t need him to though, with the top-3 they have at the wide receiver position. Smith figures to be backed up by blocking specialist Drew Sample, who has just a 0.80 yards per route run average for his career.

The Bengals don’t have much need for depth at the wide receiver position, but an injury is always possible and, while 2019 undrafted free agent Trenton Irwin wasn’t horrible with a 1.22 yards per route run average in place of Chase last season, in the first real action of his career, the Bengals still wanted to add more depth at the position this off-season, using 4th and 6th round picks on wide receivers Charles Jones and Andrei Iosivas. Any of their reserves would likely be overmatched in a large role for an extended period of time, but the Bengals have as good of a top pass catching trio as any team in the league and, barring injuries, depth and tight end production won’t be needed much.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the Bengals have built their receiving corps through the draft, they have built their offensive line mostly through free agency. Last off-season, they added center Ted Karras (3 years, 18 million), right guard Alex Cappa (4 years, 35 million), and right tackle La’El Collins (3 years, 21 million) to an offensive line that was obviously a weakness in 2021 even with the Bengals making the Super Bowl. Cappa and Karras were solid in their first season in Cincinnati, with grades of 67.6 and 62.6 respectively, and, while Collins struggled with a 57.9 PFF grade, the Bengals tried again this off-season with former Chiefs tackle Orlando Brown, who they signed to a 4-year, 64.092 million dollar deal. 

Brown’s addition will move Collins to a swing tackle role, a role he’s to be overqualified for even after last year’s down year, as he has 86 career starts, isn’t totally over the hill in his age 30 season, and has surpassed 70 on PFF in three straight healthy seasons prior to 2022. He’s great depth to have, though he has missed 24 games due to injury over the past four seasons combined. While Collins played on the right side, Brown will continue playing left tackle like he did in Kansas City and he will push incumbent Jonah Williams over to right tackle. 

A first round pick in 2019, Williams hasn’t been a bad left tackle in his career, missing his whole rookie season with injury, but making 42 starts over the past three seasons combined, while receiving grades of 70.1, 77.1, and 61.2 respectively from PFF, and he didn’t take the news of Brown’s addition well, initially demanding a trade, understandable as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal without an extension and now will play a position with a lower market value. 

However, Williams is coming off of a down year and could benefit from a move to the right side, while Brown has consistently been an above average offensive tackle throughout his career, starting with 67.8 and 72.0 PFF grades as mostly a right tackle in 2018 and 2019 respectively and 76.5, 75.4, and 75.8 PFF grades as mostly a left tackle in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while never missing a game. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 and he should prove to be a good value at the average annual salary the Bengals signed him at.

At right guard and center respectively, Cappa and Karras should have similar seasons as a year ago. Cappa was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all four seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league in 2019 (62 total starts in those four seasons), with his career best year being a 73.4 PFF grade in 2021. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Cappa should remain a solid, if unspectacular starting right guard. Karras, meanwhile, is similar, making 60 starts over the past 4 seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF all 4 times, with a career best 72.2 in 2021. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little, in which case he could be a little bit of a liability, but he could also easily remain a capable starter at least, not totally over the hill at this point in this career.

The biggest weakness on this offensive line last season was left guard, as 4th round rookie Cordell Volson predictably struggled with a 51.6 grade in 16 starts. He could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s possible he loses his job to Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who was actually the starter as a rookie before Volson. Carman struggled as well, with a 56.3 PFF grade on 462 snaps, which relegated him to playing just 4 snaps as a reserve in year two, but he probably still has a higher upside than Volson and he could benefit from his year on the bench. Left guard could easily remain a position of weakness, but this is a solid offensive line aside from that, thanks primarily to recent free agent additions Orlando Brown, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

With this roster about to get more expensive in the next couple off-seasons, with cheap young players up for big extensions, it originally seemed like the Bengals might opt to cut highly paid highly back Joe Mixon this off-season, ahead of 10.1 million owed in 2023, with a concerning off-the-field situation that didn’t help matters. That seemed less likely when the Bengals let backup Samaje Perine (95 carries, 51 targets, 449 snaps played in 2022) walk in free agency without signing a replacement and then only used a 5th round pick in the draft on the position, taking Illinois’ Chase Brown, and ultimately Mixon is back with the the only team he’s ever known for his 7th season, on a restructured deal that pays him about 6 million this year, plus incentives. 

Mixon has handled heavy volume for this team, with 1314 carries and 231 catches in 80 games in his career, but he’s not really an elite running back who was worth the kind of big money he was getting before. His career 1.26 yards per route run average is helpful on a pass heavy team like the Bengals (1.47 yards per route run in 2022), but his 4.09 career yards per carry average is mediocre and, while he did rank 10th in carry success rate last season at 54%, suggesting he was more efficient than his 3.88 YPC average suggests, that’s also what you would expect from a running back on an offense this good and it’s unclear if Mixon is the kind of back who moves the needle on his own. 

That being said, he is in line for another big workload, with the Bengals seriously lacking other options at the position. Despite only being a 5th round pick, the rookie Brown could be the #2 running back as a rookie, with his top competition being 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, who has 47 career carries, and 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans, who has 17 career carries. None of them figure to have much of a role outside of a few touches here and there, unless Mixon misses time with injury and gets suspended for his off-the-field incidents. Mixon isn’t an overly explosive back and the Bengals depth is a concern, but this isn’t a bad backfield. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bengals have a similar group on defense as well this season. On the defensive line, the Bengals return all four starters and, at the edge defender position in particular, the Bengals also add first round pick Myles Murphy to a position where Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are coming off of PFF grades of 85.0 and 72.4 respectively, but where better depth was needed. Murphy is also big enough at 6-5 268 to line up on the interior in sub packages, allowing the Bengals to get their best four pass rushers on the field together in sub packages.

Hendrickson was added by the Bengals two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal, which has more than paid off. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Hendrickson was a risky signing because he was a one-year wonder with the Saints, showing potential early in his career, but only playing 274 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 72.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2020, excelling as a pass rusher with 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate. 

Hendrickson has continued playing at that level in his new home in Cincinnati though, proving not to be a one-year wonder, with a 72.8 PFF grade and 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate in his first season in town in 2021, before last year’s career best year, in which he had 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate. Hendrickson is not much of a run defender, but his pass rush ability more than makes up for it. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, even if he ends up not being quite as good as his career best 2022 season.

Hubbard also had a career best year in 2022, as the 2018 3rd round pick has previously only finished in the 60s on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. He’s played 741 snaps per season in five seasons in the league though and, even with Myles Murphy being added, he should remain a starter. Unlike Hendrickson, Hubbard is at his best against the run, but he has also added 30.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 75 career games, with 6.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him as well in 2023, even if he also isn’t quite as good as he was in his career best year in 2022.

Cameron Sample (58.0 snaps) and Joseph Assai (55.3 snaps) were their top reserve edge defenders last season, but they had PFF grades of just 58.0 and 55.3 respectively and their roles are in limbo with Murphy being added. Both were relatively high draft picks, Sample going in the 4th round in 2021 and Assai in the 3rd in that same draft, but neither has done much thus far in their career, with Sample struggling like he did last season on 310 snaps as a rookie as well and Assai missing his entire rookie season with injury, before struggling in his first year back last season. Sample and Assai could still have upside and will compete for deep reserve snaps in 2023, but this group is led by a top trio of Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Murphy, who are one of the top edge rushers in the league, a starting caliber edge rusher, and a first round rookie respectively, so they won’t need much else beyond those three, barring injuries.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Not much changed at the interior defender position this off-season, which is a good thing because the Bengals have a pair of above average starters at the position. BJ Hill received a 65.8 grade on 815 snaps and, while fellow starter DJ Reader was limited to 397 snaps in 10 games, he excelled with a 87.3 PFF grade and should be healthier this season. For Reader, it was his third season over 80 in the past four years and he’s exceeded 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league. 

The 6-3 347 pound Reader is predictably at his best against the run, but also has added 8.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 92 career games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this year. Durability has been a concern for much of his career, with 22 games missed over the past seven seasons, but I would still expect him to be healthier than a year ago. BJ Hill, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three seasons over 70, with 564 snaps played per season in his career. Also in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Unfortunately, the Bengals depth at this position is concerning. They used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on Zachary Carter, but he struggled mightily in year one with a 32.1 PFF grade on 395 snaps and, even if he takes a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to be even a capable rotational player. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ other top reserve, veteran Josh Tupou (272 snaps), is a solid run defender at times, but only has a career 4.8% pressure rate and has not been as good against the run in recent years, leading to back-to-back seasons below 60 overall on PFF, even as a rotational player. He figures to continue being a decent early down run stuffer at best, with minimal upside. Reader and Hill make this a good position group, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Things remain the same in the linebacking corps, where the only three players who saw more than a few snaps last season, Logan Wilson (954 snaps), Germaine Pratt (722 snaps), and Akeem Davis-Gaither (228 snaps), all return for 2023. Wilson and Pratt both had career best years in 2022, as the 2020 3rd round pick Wilson received PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, on snap counts of 343 and 707 respectively, before jumping to 72.7 in a breakout third season in the league in a career high snaps in 2022, while the 2019 3rd round pick Pratt had previously posted 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 grades on PFF over his first three seasons in the league respectively, before jumping all the way to 80.6 in a breakout fourth season in the league, also on a career high snaps. 

With Wilson and Pratt both going into their age 27 seasons, both could have permanently turned a corner and could continue being above average starting linebackers going forward, but it seems unlikely that both players will repeat by far the best years of their respective careers and the possibility that one or both drops off significantly is pretty high. Davis-Gaithers is also pretty young, as the 2020 4th round pick also heads into his age 27 season. He’s only played 250 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, but he’s been pretty decent in a limited role and the Bengals won’t need much more out of him, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. This young linebacking corps has upside, with their top two players both coming off above average years, but those were also career best years for both players that they could have trouble repeating.

Grade: B+

Secondary

By far the biggest changes on this Bengals defense this off-season are in the secondary. At safety, both of the Bengals’ starters from a year ago, Jessie Bates (76.8 PFF grade on 1,016 snaps) and Vonn Bell (66.3 PFF grade on 1,023 snaps), are no longer with the team. The Bengals knew both were set to hit free agency this off-season and planned ahead, using their first round pick a year ago on safety Daxton Hill, who will become a starter in year two after playing just 130 snaps as a rookie, but I don’t think they were anticipating losing both Bates and Bell, as they don’t have a good replacement plan for the other safety spot.

The Bengals gave a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal to veteran Nick Scott and he is likely the favorite for the other starting job, but the 2019 7th round pick has made just 17 starts in four seasons in the league, while performing at a middling level at best, including a 54.2 PFF grade in his only full season as a starter in 2022 (984 snaps), so he would likely struggle if he was the starter for the whole season. The Bengals did use a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Jordan Battle as competition, but he too could struggle as a rookie, while 2022 5th round pick Tycen Anderson didn’t play a snap as a rookie and would also likely struggle if he ended up as the starter. Daxton Hill has the talent to be a solid starter immediately, but that’s not a guarantee and the Bengals figure to have a liability at the other safety spot. 

At cornerback, the Bengals lost Eli Apple, who played 908 snaps a year ago, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss because Apple struggled with a 50.9 grade last season and the Bengals have 2022 2nd round pick Cam Taylor-Britt and 2nd round rookie DJ Turner as potential replacement options who could both easily prove to be upgrades. Taylor-Britt did have just a 56.1 PFF grade on 590 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily be better than that in year two and both he and the rookie DJ Turner have the upside to be above average starters long-term.

The Bengals should also get a healthier season out of Chidobe Awuzie, who is their top cornerback when healthy, but was limited to 471 snaps in 8 games last season by a torn ACL that ended his season. Injuries have been a consistent problem for him, as he’s missed 27 games in 6 seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round by the Cowboys in 2017, but he’s also shown flashes of high level play, exceeding 70 on PFF three times in his career, including a career best 83.3 on 777 snaps as recently as 2021, when he was PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall. Awuzie did fall to 69.9 in 2022 even before the injury and that injury now complicates his long-term projection, so he’s not necessarily reliable as a top level cornerback, but he has the upside to be a top level cornerback again if everything goes right, still only in his age 28 season.

Slot specialist Mike Hilton also remains and, also in his prime in his age 29 season, he should continue being an above average slot option, as he has been throughout his career, surpassing 67 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, surpassing 70 on PFF three times, while averaging 635 snaps per season. The former 2017 undrafted free agent is only 5-9 184 and, as a result, is only a slot specialist, but he’s arguably the best pure slot cornerback in the game and should continue playing at the same level in 2023. Safety is now a position of concern for the Bengals, after it was a weakness a year ago, but they could easily get better cornerback play, with Awuzie returning from injury and a pair of young cornerbacks with the potential to be an upgrade as a replacement for former starter Eli Apple, so this isn’t a bad secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season, finishing 5th in regular season DVOA and coming close to a second straight playoff appearance. Going into 2023, this again looks like one of the best teams in the league, without drastic changes from a year ago. They play in by far the toughest of the two conferences in the AFC, which limits their chances of going on a run, but they have as good of a shot as anyone else to make it out of the conference, in which case they would almost definitely be the Super Bowl favorite over any NFC team. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC North

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

The Eagles finished the 2020 season with a 4-11-1 record and, with a payroll that made them the 3rd highest paid team in the league in terms of average annual salary, the Eagles looked like they had a long rebuild in front of them. Instead, they have rebuilt this team on the fly, making it back to the post-season the very next season in 2021 and then taking another step forward all the way to a Super Bowl appearance and a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last season, after a 14-3 regular season in which they secured the NFC’s #1 seed.

How the Eagles have been able to do this is complex, but, understandably, it starts at the quarterback position. Carson Wentz had a disappointing 2020 season, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while getting benched for raw rookie Jalen Hurts late in the season, but the Eagles were still able to trade him for a package that included a first round pick, with the Indianapolis Colts still bullish on the former MVP candidate’s upside and bounce back potential. 

The Eagles then chose not to use the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a replacement quarterback like Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead giving the reins to Hurts, even though he struggled in limited action as a passer in his rookie season, completing just 52.0% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, and then using the 6th overall pick to trade down, accumulating another first round pick the following year, and then selecting talented wide receiver Devonta Smith with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Between the first round pick from the Wentz trade, the extra first rounder they got from moving down from the 6th pick in 2021, and their own first round pick, the Eagles entered the 2022 NFL Draft with a trio of first rounders, one of which they traded for another talented wide AJ Brown, another they traded in a package that got them another first round pick in 2023, and a third they used themselves to select promising defensive player Jordan Davis. In 2023, again armed with multiple first round picks as a result of their trade down the following year, the Eagles then selected another pair of promising defensive prospects, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, useful additions for a defense that had a lot of free agents this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to keep all of them. 

Of course, none of this would have led to a Super Bowl appearance if the Eagles didn’t end up being right about Jalen Hurts, who has improved remarkably as a passer since struggling as a rookie, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2021 and then 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 2022, while continuing to be a threat on the ground, accumulating a 5.17 YPC average and 26 touchdowns on 367 career carries. His dual threat ability has led to him receiving overall grades of 80.8 and 85.9 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons. With Hurts still only going into his age 25 season, the sky’s the limit in terms of his upside and, at the very least, he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Unfortunately, it will become tougher for the Eagles to continue surrounding Hurts with talent in the future, with Hurts getting a big raise on a 5-year, 255 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, making him the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Hurts obviously played at a high level in his own right last season, but a big part of why this team got to where they got to last season was that they also had one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback. 

Injuries are more of a concern for Hurts than most quarterbacks, just because mobile quarterbacks take more hits and, as a result, have more opportunities to get hurt. Hurts might also not age as well as most quarterbacks as athleticism tends to decline quicker than anything, but the Eagles won’t have to worry about that for a long-time and, even as much as he runs, he’s definitely not a guarantee to get hurt every season. The Eagles do seem to want to be prepared for that though, spending above average on a backup quarterback to get Marcus Mariota and his 74 career starts on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. 

Mariota hasn’t been great as a starter in his career, with a 89.3 QB rating, but he’s one of the best backups in the league and would give the Eagles at least a capable quarterback for a stretch if Hurts got hurt. Mariota also has somewhat of a similar skill set to Hurts, with the ability to take off and run as well as pass, averaging 5.77 YPC with 17 touchdowns on 349 career carries, though Hurts obviously is by far the more explosive and more talented player, in both aspects of the game. With Hurts being one of the best starters in the league and Mariota being one of the best backups, it’s hard to find problems with this quarterback room, even if the Eagles are paying a lot for it.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receivers Devonta Smith and AJ Brown have been acquired using two of the several recent first round picks the Eagles have had and they are a big part of why this team has been able to rebuild in a hurry, becoming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league immediately in their first season together in 2023. Both players exceeded 1,100 yards receiving, one of two wide receiver duos in the league to do so (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle), and they were even more impressive than that seems, as the Eagles had the 10th fewest pass attempts in the league and Brown and Smith finished 3rd and 18th in the league among wide receivers respectively with 2.59 and 1.98 yards per route run respectively, while receiving overall grades of 88.0 and 81.0 respectively from PFF. 

For Brown, it was nothing new as he has been very efficient in similar run heavy offenses for his entire career, since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and a 73/1184/9 slash line per 17 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to 2022, with PFF grades of 84.0, 90.1, and 84.4 respectively. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Brown in 2023 and for years to come. Smith, meanwhile, had a 64/916/5 slash line and 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward statistically in year two in 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further in year three in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best #2 wide receivers in the league and Brown and Smith should remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Despite this offense being run heavy and Brown and Smith dominating targets, there was still enough leftover in this passing game for tight end Dallas Goedert to record a 55/702/3 slash line with a 1.82 yards per route run average, even though he missed five games with injury. That was nothing new for Goedert, who also had a 56/830/4 slash line on 76 targets in 15 games in 2021, in his first season in the league as an every down starter, and he impressed as a part-time player early in his career, averaging 1.59 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2018, while exceeding 70 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Goedert should continue playing at a similar level and could have his most productive year yet if he can avoid suffering a significant injury like he did last year.

With Brown, Smith, and Goedert all in the same receiving corps on a team that likes to run the ball a lot anyway, there isn’t much need for many other pass catchers, but the Eagles don’t have bad depth at wide receiver. Quez Watkins was their #3 receiver last season and, while he only had a 33/354/1 slash line and 0.80 yards per route run, that was in large part because he only had 51 targets and he had a 43/647/1 slash line and 1.51 yards per route run in a bigger role in 2021, when he received 62 targets. The 2020 6th round pick is an underwhelming option, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver, the Eagles won’t need much out of him, and the Eagles added competition for him, free agent acquisition Olamide Zaccheaus, who could prove to be an upgrade.

Zaccheaus went undrafted in 2019, but he has a decent 1.40 yards per route run average in his four seasons in the league. He’s never gotten a ton of playing time, but he did see a career high 61 targets and a career high 737 snaps last season, which he took for a 40/533/3 slash line and 1.47 yards per route run. He would probably have a smaller role with the Eagles, even if he does win the #3 receiver job, but he’s a decent 3rd option to have at the wide receiver position. The Eagles would obviously miss Devonta Smith or AJ Brown significantly if either missed time with injury, but Watkins and Zaccheaus wouldn’t be bad replacement options if they had to play a larger role in the absence of an injured wide receiver.

At tight end, Jack Stoll remains as the #2 tight end. He averaged just 0.57 yards per route run and had just a 11/123/0 slash line on 14 targets last season, but he played 572 snaps total and was decent as a blocker, which is what they primarily need him to do. Undrafted in 2021, Stoll had a similar season as a rookie, on 331 snaps. The Eagles also have veteran Dan Arnold, who can’t block, but who has a 1.63 yards per route run average for his career as a part-time tight end, and they have 2022 6th round pick Grant Calcaterra, who was decent on 227 snaps as a rookie and could have earned a larger role in year two as a rookie. There won’t be a lot of targets to go around for backup tight ends unless Goedert gets hurt, but they don’t have bad tight end depth either. This is a dominant receiving corps, led by arguably the best top trio of pass catchers in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Eagles didn’t utilize their running backs in the passing game much last season, as passing down back Kenneth Gainwell only had 29 targets, which he took for a 23/169/0 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run, while lead back Miles Sanders only took 26 targets for a 20/78/0 slash line and 0.29 yards per route run. However, that could be changing this season. Sanders is gone and, while one of his replacements Rashaad Penny likely won’t be much use in the passing game (0.67 yards per route run), the Eagles also added D’Andre Swift from the Lions, who has a career 1.53 yards per route run, and Gainwell still remains as well. All three of those backs could end up having roles on this offense.

Penny figures to be the primary early down back, as long as he’s healthy, but that has not consistently been the case throughout his first five seasons in the league. The 2018 1st round pick has a very impressive 5.69 YPC average for his career, but he’s never exceeded 119 carries in a season, while missing 40 games total in five years in the league. He was a worthwhile flier for the Eagles on a 1-year deal worth just 1.35 million and, if he can stay healthy, he has a lot of upside as an early down back, still only in his age 27 season, but I wouldn’t count on him lasting the whole season.

Swift has early down potential as well, in addition to being a talented pass catcher, averaging 4.62 YPC in three seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020, but injuries have also been a concern for him, as he’s missed at least three games in each of his three seasons in the league. He’s also a nice addition to this backfield and figures to be useful for the Eagles as long as he stays on the field, but he’s also a strong candidate to miss more time with injury and the Lions probably won’t want to give him too many carries, in order to preserve him for passing downs.

Kenneth Gainwell is probably third on this depth chart now, but he could still find himself with a role, given how injury prone Penny and Swift are. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gainwell was better as a pass catcher as a rookie, with a 33/253/1 slash line on 50 targets and a 1.39 yards per route run average, and he has a 4.39 YPC average on 121 carries in two seasons in the league as well, so he’s not a bad 3rd option, though he’s obviously a projection to a larger role as a ball carrier. 

The Eagles also still have veteran Boston Scott, who has a 4.29 YPC average on 282 carries and a career 1.11 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2018. Depending on injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could also find himself with somewhat of a role at some point this season. The Eagles don’t have a true top back in this backfield, but there is a lot of upside, especially if Penny and/or Swift can stay healthier than they’ve been in the past.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One area where the Eagles are unlikely to be quite as good in 2023 as they were a year ago is on the offensive line (1st in team pass blocking grade on PFF, 5th in team run blocking grade on PFF) and there are several reasons for that. For one, they were among the healthiest offensive lines in the league a year ago, with their expected starting five offensive linemen combining to miss just three starts, and they are unlikely to be that lucky again. The Eagles also won’t be as deep on the offensive line this season, losing starting right guard Isaac Seumalo, who was PFF’s 7th ranked guard with a 75.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, as well as Andre Dillard, who only played 37 snaps as a reserve last season, but could have replaced Seumalo if he had been kept. 

Instead, the Eagles will likely replace Seumalo with 2022 2nd round pick Cam Jurgens, who is primarily a center, but who will also likely be their best option at right guard this season, despite only playing 35 snaps as a rookie. The Eagles also used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on the versatile Anthony Steen, who could also push to start at right guard, even as a rookie, and they still have useful reserve Jack Driscoll, who has been solid while making 16 starts as a spot starter over the past three seasons (1 at left tackle, 10 at right tackle, and 5 at right guard) since going in the 4th round in 2020. However, the Eagles depth is not what it’s been upfront in recent years.

Making matters worse, the Eagles have a pair of key offensive linemen who are now well over 30 and, as a result, could decline in 2023, with center Jason Kelce going into his age 36 season and right tackle Lane Johnson going into his age 33 season. Kelce could very well be entering the final season of his career in 2023, with Cam Jurgens originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for him, but Kelce still finished with a 88.3 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2022, his 9th season over 70 and his 6th season over 80 in the past 10 seasons, so, even if he does decline this season, he still has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter. However, any noticeable decline from him would have a negative effect on the rest of this offensive line, considering how much they have depended on him for years.

Johnson isn’t quite as old as Kelce and has also had a very impressive career, with 10 seasons over 70 and 6th seasons over 80 on PFF in 10 seasons in the league, but he too could decline noticeably this season and, even if he remains an above average starter, that noticeable decline would also have a negative impact on this offensive line as a whole. Johnson has also had consistent durability issues throughout his career, missing time in each of the past seven seasons, with 31 games total missed over that stretch, including two starts last season, two of the three starts that Eagles starting offensive linemen missed in 2022. He figures to miss at least some time with injury again at some point this season.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are both relatively young and in their prime. Left tackle Jordan Mailata went undrafted in 2018 and had actually never played American football before the Eagles gave him a chance, but that chance proved to be worth it, as Mailata became a starter in his third season in the league in 2020 and has made 40 starts in three seasons since, while receiving grades of 70.3, 87.4, and 76.5 respectively from PFF. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue at least being an above average left tackle for years to come, and his upside is among the best in the NFL. 

Dickerson, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has received identical 67.3 grades from PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, doing so on 13 starts as a rookie and then 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dickerson took a step forward and had the best year yet of his career in 2023. This is still a strong offensive line, but between off-season losses, the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries this year, and the fact that a couple of their best offensive linemen are well over 30 and could decline, I wouldn’t expect this group to be quite as good as a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles had a lot of free agents on defense this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to retain them all. In fact, of the nine Eagles defenders who played at least 700 snaps in 2022, seven of them hit free agency this off-season, with five of them going elsewhere this off-season. The Eagles didn’t do a bad job of replacing all that lost talent though and, even if regress significantly on defense this season, they are coming off of a year in which they ranked 6th in DVOA, so they have a lot of room to regress and still be an above average unit.

At the interior defender position, both starters Fletcher Cox (712 snaps) and Javon Hargrave (711 snaps) were free agents this off-season. Cox was retained this off-season on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but Hargrave signed with the 49ers, after posting a 78.2 PFF grade last season, while Cox is going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst year (56.4 PFF grade), so it’s not a surprise that the Eagles used one of their first round picks on an interior defender for the second straight year, taking Jalen Carter 9th overall, after taking Jordan Davis 13th overall in last year’s draft. 

Davis flashed a lot of potential on 225 rookie year snaps in 13 games (71.4 PFF grade) and figures to have a much bigger role in year two, while Carter is talented enough to make an immediate impact and has the upside to develop into one of the better interior defenders in the league long-term, as does Davis. They will both play significant roles this season, alongside Cox, who is clearly on the decline, going from 6 straight seasons of PFF grades over 80 from 2014-2019, to a 74.1 PFF grade in 2020, a 66.7 PFF grade in 2021, and his career worst year in 2022, especially struggling against the run. He’ll likely play a smaller snap count after exceeding 700 snaps played in 9 of the past 10 seasons and he could benefit from that, but he’s clearly not the player he used to be and could continue struggling.

The Eagles also have 2021 3rd round pick Milton Williams, who struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade on 456 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in year two, receiving a 72.6 PFF grade on 396 snaps. It’s possible Williams stays inconsistent and regresses in year three, but he also could continue playing well in what should be a bigger role, with Cox on the decline and the younger players taking over most of the snap load at this position. There’s plenty of upside here, but a lot of downside as well, if the young players prove they are not ready for bigger snap counts.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Eagles also used a first round pick in this year’s draft on an edge defender, taking Nolan Smith 30th overall, not because the Eagles lost any key players at the edge defender position, but because long-time edge defender Brandon Graham, who still played 474 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 35 season and could be nearing the end. Graham still excelled last season though, with a 89.8 PFF grade, his 9th season over 80 in the past 11 seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 5 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate that exceeds even his impressive career 14.7% pressure rate.  

Graham’s performance was especially impressive because, in addition to his age, he was also coming off of a 2021 season in which he missed all but 50 snaps due to a torn achilles. His 2022 snap count was his lowest in a healthy season since 2012 and it could be even lower this season with Smith being added, but the former 2010 first round pick could continue playing at a high level as a rotational player, even if he declines a little and isn’t quite as good as a year ago. 

Graham could also drop off significantly, but the Eagles are pretty well prepared for that with Smith being added to a group that already has Josh Sweat (587 snaps) and Haason Reddick (816 snaps), who received PFF grades of 86.6 and 81.1 respectively last season, while recording 16 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate and 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate respectively. For Reddick, it was more of the same as his previous two seasons, dating back to the 2017 first round pick’s breakout 2020 campaign, in which he had 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate, followed by 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 2021. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

For Sweat, on the other hand, it was a career best year for him, especially as a pass rusher, but he had previously had PFF grades of 70.2 and 76.1 on snap counts of 422 and 654 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, so his strong season didn’t come totally out of nowhere. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect the 2018 4th round pick to continue being at least an above average edge defender, with the upside to continue playing at the high level he played at last season. 

The Eagles also still have Derek Barnett, another former first round pick (2017) who has played significant snap counts in the past, averaging 649 snaps per season from 2019-2021, and who is still only in his age 27 season, but he has mostly been a middling player, with PFF grades in the 50s and 60s throughout his career, he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2022 season after 12 snaps, and he is mostly still on the roster because his contract makes it hard to move on. He figures to be buried on the depth chart in what figures to be a loaded edge defender group again, with first round pick Nolan Smith added to a group with a top trio that totaled 38 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2022.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The linebacker position is the position where the Eagles lost the most this off-season. Kyzir White and TJ Edwards were both every down players who played 843 snaps and 1,040 snaps respectively and both played well, especially Edwards, who ranked 2nd among off ball linebackers with a 84.8 PFF grade, while White ranked above average at 65.0. Both are no longer with the team and their likely replacements will almost definitely be significant downgrades, with 2022 3rd round pick Nakobe Dean expected to take over a starting role, despite playing just 38 snaps as a rookie, and free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow being a mediocre option, who has finished below average on PFF in four of five healthy seasons in the league, on an average of 701 snaps per season. 

The Eagles don’t have much in the way of other options though, nor do they have adequate depth. Shaun Bradley was just a 6th round pick in 2020 and has played just 134 defensive snaps thus far in his career. Davion Taylor went in the 3rd round that year, but struggled mightily on 283 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league, before spending his entire third season in the league on the practice squad, not playing a single defensive snap. The Eagles’ linebacking corps figures to be a liability this year, a year after they were a strength.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles also lost both of their starting safeties from last season, but that’s not as big of a deal because Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson finished with middling grades of 56.3 and 63.9 respectively on PFF. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his league leading six interceptions, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and missed a lot of tackles, so he won’t be missed as much as his interception total would suggest. To replace Epps and Gardner-Johnson, the Eagles signed ex-Steeler Terrell Edmunds and used a 3rd round pick on Illinois’ Sydney Brown, who figures to compete with their top reserves from a year ago, Reed Blankenship and Marcus Epps, for the other starting job opposite Edmunds.

Edmunds was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2018 and he has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has mostly been a middling starter, finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, while also never exceeding 70.9 in a season. Edmunds should continue being at least a decent starter in 2023, so he shouldn’t be a downgrade from either of the Eagles’ starting safeties last season, and he has the potential to be better than both were a year ago.

At the other safety spot, meanwhile, Blankenship has shown the most potential of the bunch thus far, posting a 75.8 grade on 292 snaps last season, but that’s a really small sample size for a 2022 undrafted free agent, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role. Wallace, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2020, but has finished with grades in the 50s on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 185 snaps played per season, while the rookie Brown could easily struggle if forced into a significant rookie year role. One of the Eagles’ safety spots could be a liability, but that wouldn’t be a big difference from a year ago.

At cornerback, the Eagles kept all of their key players from a year ago, even though their top two cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay both could have left the team this off-season, with the former being re-signed as a free agent on a 3-year, 38 million dollar deal and the latter nearly being a cap casualty at a 17.5 million dollar scheduled salary, before agreeing to a long-term 3-year, 42 million dollar extension to lower his cap hit. Bradberry and Slay posted grades of 74.1 and 73.1 respectively on PFF, but they are going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, so there’s some potential for decline.

For Bradberry, it was also only the 2nd season in seven seasons in the league in which he has surpassed 70 on PFF. He’s started 108 of 109 games played in those seven seasons, while exceeding 60 on PFF every year, but he hasn’t consistently shown a higher level of play. Between that and his age, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2023, though he should remain at least a capable starter, barring an unexpected massive decline. Slay, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in 7 of the past 9 seasons, with 3 seasons over 80, including most recently a 2021 season in which he had a 81.3 grade, but he is a couple years older than Bradberry, so the potential for an aged related decline is more likely. Either way, it seems unlikely that both players will be as good as they were a year ago again in 2023, but they should still be a solid starting duo.

The Eagles also still have Avonte Maddox, who missed 8 games with injury and was limited to only 457 snaps as the #3 cornerback, but who posted an impressive 71.3 PFF grade. The 2018 4th round pick was inconsistent early in his career, but that was in part because he kept moving back and forth from slot cornerback to safety and, over the past two seasons as purely a slot cornerback, he has exceeded 70 on PFF in back-to-back seasons, doing so on 729 snaps in 2021. Only in his age 27 season, he should be able to have a similar season in 2023, assuming he can stay healthy this time around.

In Maddox’s absence, Josiah Scott struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade on 390 snaps, but the Eagles did fortify their depth this off-season by signing former Cleveland Browns cornerback Greedy Williams. Williams’ 1-year, 1.35 million dollar deal is only a flier, but it could be a good one, as the 2019 2nd round pick has shown flashes, but has missed 27 games with injury in four seasons in the league and, as a result, has failed to develop, finishing above 60 on PFF just once. 

In the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, Williams was limited to just 105 snaps as a reserve and that’s what he figures to be in Philadelphia, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped potential if he can finally stay healthy. This secondary might not be quite as good as a year ago with Slay and Bradbury aging, but this should still remain a solid unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

There are reasons to expect the Eagles not to be as good as a year ago, as they lost significant talent on defense and are unlikely to have the same unlikely luck as they had on offense a year ago, when they had the 4th fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury. However, they were 14-1 last season before Jalen Hurts got injured, so, even if they regress, they are regressing from a very high point, and their conference competition has gotten even weaker this off-season, so the Eagles should have a pretty easy path to another high win total and multiple playoff wins. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

In 2022, the Cowboys were a good team, but not a great team, finishing the regular season 6th in DVOA, making the post-season as a wild card at 12-5, and ultimately falling short in a divisional round loss to the 49ers. It was a similar season for the Cowboys, who have won double digit games and have made the post-season in five of the past nine seasons, but none of those appearances have led to deep playoff runs, with two ending with first round losses and three ending with second round losses. 

That’s actually a long-term trend for the Cowboys, dating back to their last NFC Championship appearance in 1995, a period of time in which they have qualified for the post-season 12 times in 27 seasons, but have gone just 5-12 in the post-season and have failed to win multiple games in the same post-season appearance. The Cowboys didn’t have a ton of room for flexibility this off-season and they’re an above average team, even if they haven’t been true contenders, so they decided to basically run it back for the second straight season, with minimal changes, beyond a few key changes that I’ll get into later.

Much like this team has been good, but not great in recent years, the same can be said of quarterback Dak Prescott. Since becoming the starter as a 4th round rookie in 2016, Prescott has started 97 games, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.60 YPA, 166 touchdowns, and 65 interceptions, good for a 97.8 QB rating, while finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons, including four seasons over 80.

He’s certainly not a bad quarterback, but the problem is that he is the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal and the history of paying non-elite quarterbacks top quarterback money is not promising. Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 29 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win it all with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap.

Prescott is going into his age 30 season in 2023 and I would expect more of the same. Injuries are becoming a bit of a concern for him, as he’s missed time in each of the past three seasons, 17 games total, after not missing any in his first four seasons in the league. Fortunately, the Cowboys have a decent backup Cooper Rush, who has a career 84.9 QB rating, including a 80.0 QB rating in 5 starts last season in Prescott’s absence last season, after Prescott suffered an injury in week one. 

The Cowboys went 4-1 in Rush’s starts, but that had more to do with their defense, as they were a much more efficient offense with Prescott in the lineup, despite the win/loss records. Rush is not a bad backup, but the Cowboys will obviously be hoping that Prescott can stay healthy all year this time around. This is a solid quarterback room, but Prescott might not be quite good enough for this team to be serious contenders at the highest level with him making the salary he currently makes.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on offense this off-season was wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who they are paying 12 million to come over from the Texans for a pair of late round draft picks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and coming off of a 57/699/3 slash line, a down year for a receiver who has topped 1000 yards six times in nine seasons in the league, but Cooks’ low production last season was in part due to poor quarterback play with the Texans and also in part due to missing four games, as his 1.64 yards per route run average actually wasn’t far behind his career average of 1.81, despite the situation under center in Houston. 

Cooks isn’t totally over the hill and it’s entirely possible he bounces back statistically in 2023, if he stays healthier, in a much better offense. Even if he doesn’t bounce back to his prime form, Cooks should still be an asset for a team that lacked a consistent #2 wide receiver last year, behind #1 wide receiver Ceedee Lamb. Lamb finished last season with a 107/1359/9 slash line and a 2.38 yards per route run average, but their next best wide receiver was Noah Brown, who had just a 43/555/3 slash line and a 1.23 yards per route run average. 

For Lamb, last season was the best of his career, with a 86.3 PFF grade that ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 overall pick has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 74/935/5 slash line, 1.81 yards per route run average, and a 71.3 PFF grade as a rookie to a 79/1102/6 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run average, and a 84.6 PFF grade in his second season in 2021, to last year’s career best year, when he finished 6th in the league in receiving yards. Still only in his age 24 season, Lamb should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come in 2023 and beyond.

The Cowboys should also get more out of Michael Gallup (737 snaps), who struggled mightily in his first season back from a torn ACL in 2022, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run with a 39/424/4 slash line, but who has had much better years in the past and, only in his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential, another year removed from the injury. Prior to last season, Gallup had averaged a 1.63 yards per route run and an average slash line of 70/1044/6 per 17 games in the previous three seasons combined, with his 2021 season ending after 9 games due to injury. Durability remains a concern for him and he may never go all the way back to his peak form, but he has a good amount of bounce back potential and should be useful for the Cowboys in 3-wide receiver sets with Lamb and Cooks.


With Noah Brown (823 snaps) gone, the Cowboys top reserve this season is likely to be 2022 3rd round pick Jalen Tolbert, although that’s mostly by default, with the rest of the position group consisting of recent late round picks and undrafted free agents, none of whom have surpassed more than a few catches in their career. Tolbert came into the league with a lot of potential, as evidenced by his draft status, and he still does have upside, but he also showed very little as a rookie, playing just 89 snaps, despite the Cowboys’ need for playmakers at the position, and averaging just 0.30 yards per route run. The Cowboys won’t need him much in 2023 unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but that’s obviously a possibility and Tolbert could easily end up struggling if forced into a significant role as an injury replacement.

The Cowboys should have a talented top wide receiver trio this season, but they did lose tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency this off-season. Schultz actually finished second on this team with a 57/577/5 slash line on 89 targets, while averaging a 1.38 yards per route run average, giving the Cowboys a reliable tight end target to help make up for their lack of wide receiver depth. Schultz wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran tight end this off-season, so the Cowboys are likely to have less focus on the tight end position this season, in favor of giving more targets to their talented wide receiver trio.

Jake Ferguson, a 2022 4th round pick who played 420 snaps and averaged 1.66 yards per route run as the #2 tight end as a rookie, is in line to start as Schultz’s replacement, and the Cowboys also added another young tight end, Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker, in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and he figures to also have at least somewhat of a role at the tight end position. Schoonmaker is raw though, while Ferguson is a projection to a larger role. The top-3 targets in this passing game are likely to be the wide receivers, given that they have a talented top trio at that position, but their young tight ends do also have some upside, in a receiving corps that seems strong overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

At running back, the big change is the Cowboys releasing long-time feature back Ezekiel Elliott, a move the Cowboys are hoping will be addition by subtraction, with promising young Tony Pollard poised to take over the feature back role, after being by far the more efficient back over Elliott in a limited role in recent years. In his career, the 2019 4th round pick Pollard has averaged 5.13 yards per carry on 510 carries in 4 seasons in the league, with 1.45 yards per route run as a pass catcher, and back-to-back seasons over 85 overall on PFF, while Elliott had averaged just 4.01 yards per carry on 712 carries and 0.69 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined, while not exceeding even 75 overall on PFF since 2019.

Pollard ran in more favorable situations and didn’t have as much usage, maxing out at 232 touches in a season, but he has exceeded Elliott in carry success rate over the past two seasons as well (55% vs. 53% in 2021, 50% vs. 49% in 2022), so he’s been the more efficient back any way you look at it and he could easily break out as one of the best feature backs in the league with Elliott out of his way. That’s not a guarantee, especially with Pollard coming off of a broken leg that he suffered in the post-season last year, but even if he wasn’t coming off the injury, he would still be a projection to a larger role, and I wouldn’t expect him to be as efficient in a bigger role even in a best case scenario, but he doesn’t have to be quite as efficient to be one of the more productive running backs in the league in a bigger workload. 

The Cowboys are betting on Pollard breaking out in his new expanded role, using much of the 13.1 million they saved from releasing Elliott to keep Pollard on the 10.091 million dollar franchise tag, a number he should exceed annually on a long-term deal if he can show himself to be healthy and capable of being a featured back in this offense in 2023. Releasing Elliott at that huge number was a no brainer and keeping Pollard, who will almost definitely be an upgrade, at a fraction of that cost makes sense as well.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ depth behind Pollard is a concern without Elliott, especially concerning since Pollard is coming off of an injury and is still a projection to his new larger role. The Cowboys finished last season 6th in the league with 531 carries as a team and if they want to come close to that number in 2023, they will need another running back to prove capable of handling a somewhat significant role. Malik Davis is currently penciled in as the #2 running back and the 2022 undrafted free agent flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in a very limited role, with 2.10 yards per route run and 4.24 yards per carry, but he’s still very inexperienced and an underwhelming option as the primary backup. 

The Cowboys probably want to avoid overloading Pollard, so whoever his backup is will probably see at least somewhat significant action, probably in both running and passing situations, and that very well could be Davis, who flashed potential in both aspects of the game in very limited rookie year action. The Cowboys also used a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn and seem like a strong candidate to add veteran depth before the start of the season. Any veteran they add would be more of a threat to the young backup running backs than it would be to Pollard’s expected feature back role though, as Pollard looks like the clear lead back, which elevates an otherwise underwhelming position group.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The only big change on the offensive line is that they lost left guard Connor McGovern in free agency, but will probably get a healthier year out of left tackle Tyron Smith, who was limited to 271 snaps in 4 games last season. Smith’s return will push his injury replacement Tyler Smith to left guard where he’ll be a replacement for McGovern. The Cowboys are left without much depth and would be in trouble if any of their starters missed significant time with injury, but they could have a solid starting five again.

Tyler Smith played pretty well, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on the season, making all but one start at left tackle as a rookie last season, with the other coming at left guard, now his new starting position. It’s possible Smith won’t be as good at a new position, but guard also could be an easier position for him to play and it would be a surprise at all if he took a step forward in year two and became one of the better guards in the league. He was originally drafted to be the long-term replacement for Tyron Smith, who is now going into his age 33 season, but, for now, guard is where Tyler Smith will play.

Tyron Smith’s age is a concern, especially when you consider his injury history, missing at least 3 games in each of the past 7 seasons, with a total of 45 games missed over that stretch and 33 games missed over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s surpassed 75 on PFF in 8 of the past 10 seasons, including a 91.4 grade as recently as 2021 (11 starts), so, if he can stay healthy, even if he declines from his prime form, he should remain at least an above average starter, but that dominant 2021 campaign was surrounded by seasons in which he’s been limited to 2 starts and 4 starts respectively, and it’s entirely possible he misses another significant chunk of time with injury in 2023.

If Tyron Smith does miss more time, the Cowboys replacement options wouldn’t be great. Matt Waletzko, a 2022 5th round pick, only played one snap as a rookie, while 2021 4th round pick Josh Ball has played just 42 career snaps, and those are the only reserve offensive tackles on the roster aside from recent undrafted free agents with no experience. The Cowboys could move Tyler Smith back to tackle if Tyron Smith misses time, but their replacement options at guard only include Chuma Edoga, a 2019 3rd round pick who has been mediocre in 13 career starts, 2021 7th round pick Matt Farinok, who has struggled mightily in 214 career snaps, and 5th round rookie Asim Richards, who would likely be overmatched in a starting role in year one.

The Cowboys’ depth problems are even more concerning when you consider that right tackle Terence Steele tore his ACL in week 14 last season and might not be ready for the start of this season. Even if he is, he could easily not be 100% to start the season. Steele had a 73.9 PFF grade in 13 starts in last season, but he would have been a candidate to regress even before the injury, as Steele is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had formerly received grades of 50.3 and 64.5 respectively from PFF in the first two seasons of his career (27 starts), before his career best year in 2022. With an ACL tear in the mix now, Steele seems likely to have a hard time repeating his career best year again in 2023.

The Cowboys also have an aging star player at right guard, as Zach Martin is also going into his age 33 season. Martin has been one of the best guards in the league for years, exceeding 80 on PFF in 8 straight seasons to begin his career from 2014-2021, but he dropped off to 73.3 in 2022 and he could very well be on the permanent decline. He could remain an above average starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined further and it seems unlikely he’ll bounce back to his peak form.

The Cowboys also don’t have much depth at center, with no experienced players behind starter Tyler Biadasz, who is going into his 3rd season in that role, posting decent 64.8 and 61.7 grades on PFF and making 33 out of 34 possible starts. The 2020 4th round pick is still only in his 4th season in the league, so he could have a little untapped potential, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. There is potential for this to be a solid offensive line, but the Cowboys have two starters in their age 33 season and a right tackle coming off of a significant injury, with minimal depth across the board, so there is potential for a lot of downside here too.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 2nd in defensive DVOA, and their edge defender group was probably the strength of their defense. That should remain the case in 2023, with this group not changing in any meaningful ways this off-season, aside from adding San Jose State’s Viliami Fehoko in the 4th round of the draft to give themselves even more depth. This position was led last season by Micah Parsons, who is one of the top defensive players in the league, and that should remain the case this season. 

The 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Parsons burst onto the season with a 89.8 PFF grade as a rookie, struggling against the run, but totaling 13 sacks, 15 hits, and a 21.8% pressure rate, and then he followed that up with a 91.6 PFF grade in his second season in the league, 2nd among edge defenders on PFF, taking a big step forward against the run and continuing to be a highly effective pass rusher, with 13.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 18.4% pressure rate. Still only in his age 24 season, Parsons should remain one of the top edge defenders in the league for years to come and he should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

The Cowboys also have DeMarcus Lawrence, who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league for years, with 45.5 sacks, 56 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 88 games over the past 6 seasons combined, but he is going into his age 31 season now and, though he still had a 78.1 PFF grade last season, that was his first season below 80 since 2016, so he seems to be declining a little bit and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further in 2023. He should remain an above average edge defender, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

Reserves Sam Williams (274 snaps), Dorance Armstrong (542 snaps), Dante Fowler (343 snaps) all played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 70.9, 61.8, and 63.2 respectively, especially performing well as pass rushers, with pressure rates of 13.3%, 12.3%, and 15.9% respectively and a combined 18.5 sacks and 19 hits across the three of them. Williams was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2023, possibly in an extended role, which could come at the expense of the aging DeMarcus Lawrence. 

Dorance Armstrong was a 4th round pick in 2018 and struggled as a reserve in his first three seasons in the league, but he played 507 snaps in 2021 and also had a decent 65.7 grade, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate, so he should be able to continue being a capable rotational player for the third straight season in 2023. Fowler is coming off a career best year as a pass rusher, though he has exceeded 60 as a pass rusher on PFF in six straight seasons, with 37 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate in 92 games over that stretch. He has mostly struggled against the run in his career and he probably won’t be as good as a pass rusher again in 2023, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. This remains a very deep and talented position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a position of relative weakness on defense for the Cowboys last season, so it makes sense that they used their first round pick on Michigan’s Mazi Smith, who figures to have a significant role immediately in year one, likely as a starter. Smith figures to have some growing pains in year one, but has a good chance to be at least a solid starter. He’ll likely start next to Osa Odighizuwa, the biggest bright spot of this group a year ago, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 63.3 overall PFF grade on 616 snaps, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. 

Odighizuwa was also a solid pass rusher as a rookie in 2021 with 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in a similar role (614 snaps), but he struggled mightily against the run (37.6 PFF grade). He still wasn’t good as a run defender in year two (54.7 PFF grade), but he was noticeably better. His run defense will likely remain a weakness in his third season in the league, but he should continue being a good enough pass rusher to make up for it.

Another recent third round pick, Chauncey Golston, was the Cowboys’ only other edge defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, doing so on just 237 snaps, but he had a similar season on 414 snaps as a rookie in 2021, so he’s shown enough that he could earn an expanded role in 2023, even if he remains a reserve. His run defense has been underwhelming in his career, but he has an impressive 8.6% pressure rate in his limited action. Neville Gallimore was also a recent third round pick (2020), but he hasn’t been nearly as good of a selection, with grades of 52.1, 49.6, and 36.6 on snap counts of 416, 164, and 402 in his first three seasons in the league. He may have a little untapped upside, but that’s far from a guarantee and shouldn’t be guaranteed a rotational role or a roster spot at a position group that is deeper than it’s been in recent years.

The Cowboys also have veteran Johnathan Hankins and 2021 6th round pick Quinton Bohanna in the mix. Hankins was acquired in a trade with the Raiders mid-season last year, but he only played 115 snaps in 5 games and struggled mightily, before going down for the year with an injury. Hankins has had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons to begin his career from 2013-2020, with four seasons over 70, but he’s had the two worst seasons by far of his career in the past two seasons (46.9 and 46.0) and, now going into his age 31 season, is likely to continue struggling. Bohanna, meanwhile, has struggled on snap counts of 222 and 264 respectively in two seasons in the league and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it’s very possible he never gets any better. This is a young group with some upside and the addition of Mazi Smith definitely makes them better, but they still have some concerns.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Leighton Vander Esch remains the Cowboys’ top linebacker, coming off of a season in which he received a 70.8 PFF grade on 745 snaps. That was his best single season grade since his rookie season in 2018, when the 19th overall pick seemingly burst onto the scene with a 84.4 PFF grade on 785 snaps. However, injuries and inconsistent play led to him playing just 510 snaps, 460 snaps, and 661 snaps respectively over the next three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 58.4, 50.6, and 63.5, before staying healthy and bouncing back somewhat to his rookie year form in 2022. Vander Esch is still only going into his age 26 season and could remain an above average every down linebacker, but there’s a good chance he regresses and/or misses time with injury, so I wouldn’t expect as much out of him as the Cowboys got a year ago.

Anthony Barr was the Cowboys’ other starting linebacker last season, receiving a 59.7 PFF grade on 608 snaps, but the Cowboys let the veteran leave this off-season, opting to replace him by promoting 2022 5th round pick Damone Clark, who flashed potential with a solid 65.5 grade on 398 snaps as a rookie. Clark is still a projection to a larger role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up as a liability in his first season as an every down player, but he also could take a step forward in his second season in the league and continue his solid play into a larger role.

If Clark struggles or can’t lock down the job, the Cowboys have third round rookie DeMarvion Overshown, who figures to be the third linebacker, playing sparingly as an early down run stuffer in base packages, but who also could play a larger role if needed, though he might struggle in that role. The Cowboys also still have 2021 4th round pick Jabril Cox, but he hasn’t shown much in the very few snaps (46) he has played in two seasons in the league and it’s unlikely they are suddenly planning on giving him a significant role in year three. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but there is a lot of youth and inexperience and their top player, Leighton Vander Esch, has a history of injury and inconsistency.

Grade: B

Secondary

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on defense this offense was trading for veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore only cost the Cowboys a fifth round pick in draft compensation because Gilmore is going into his age 33 season and is owed 10 million this season, but he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years and he hasn’t declined much yet, finishing last season with a 79.1 grade on PFF, his 7th season over 70 in the past 9 seasons. 

Gilmore is unlikely to ever return to his prime form, when he received PFF grades of 90.7 and 82.8 respectively in 2018 and 2019, and he might have trouble even being as good as he was last year again this year, given his age, but, barring an unexpectedly massive drop off, he should remain at least an above average starting cornerback, making him a welcome addition for a Cowboys team that needed help at the position, with Gilmore essentially replacing fellow veteran Anthony Brown, who had a 55.0 PFF grade on 728 snaps last season.

Trevon Diggs remains as another starter. He’s well known for the 17 interceptions he has in three seasons since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2020, which are tied for the most in the NFL over that span, but he has also allowed 2,361 receiving yards over that stretch, which is also most in the NFL over that stretch, and he’s consistently struggled against the run. His pass defense grades from PFF have still been decent, at 63.9, 66.7, and 66.1 respectively across the three seasons he’s been in the league, but those are not nearly as good as you’d expect just based on his interception totals. Diggs is still in his age 26 season and could continue getting better and he should benefit from having Gilmore opposite him, but I would expect for Gilmore to still be their best cornerback overall and for Diggs to continue being a boom or bust player.

The third cornerback role in this secondary is up for grabs. Veteran Jourdan Lewis has been a starter for the Cowboys for several years, starting 30 of 37 games played over the past three seasons, while playing 52.2 snaps per game, but he has been underwhelming with PFF grades of 48.1, 61.4, and 59.1 respectively. He was better in a more limited role earlier in his career and could benefit from going back to that role, but he could also remain a starter if no one else proves to be a better option.

DaRon Bland is probably their best alternative option, after flashing potential with a 71.9 PFF grade on 597 snaps last season as mostly an injury replacement from Lewis, playing well despite being just a 5th round rookie. Bland is a projection to a larger role and wasn’t a high draft pick, but he could easily end up developing into a solid starter long-term and could prove to be an upgrade over Lewis as soon as this season. The Cowboys also used 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft on cornerbacks Kelvin Joseph and Nashon Wright and they could be candidates for larger roles, but they have played just 332 snaps and 220 snaps respectively in their careers thus far and could easily remain buried on the depth chart.

At safety, the Cowboys have a trio of starting caliber players and they use them together frequently, to compensate for their questionable depth at linebacker and cornerback. Malik Hooker (860 snaps), Jayron Kearse (815 snaps), and Donovan Wilson (959 snaps) all finished with impressive grades of 73.9, 70.2, and 70.1 respectively in 2022 and all could continue playing at a similar level in 2023. 

Kearse didn’t become a starter until his 6th season in the league in 2021, but he also had an impressive PFF grade that season at 76.8, and he’s flashed potential as a reserve before, so he should remain a solid starting caliber player in 2023. Wilson had never played as many snaps as he did last season before, but he did receive grades of 72.0 and 62.5 respectively on PFF on snap counts of 673 and 338 respectively in two seasons of significant action prior to last season, so he has a good chance to remain a solid starting caliber player as well this season. 

Hooker, meanwhile, has been a starter since entering the league as a first round pick in 2017 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 70, but durability has always been an issue for him, costing him 47 games total in his career, with at least one game missed in every season in the league. He should continue playing at a pretty high level when healthy, but he’s a strong candidate to miss more time with injury. All three safeties have a good chance to remain solid starting caliber players, in a secondary that is well above average overall, especially with the addition of cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Cowboys are still probably behind the Eagles in the division, but they are one of the few teams in the NFC that was a contender a year ago that didn’t get worse from a year ago and, in fact, they are arguably better, due to the additions of veterans Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. It would be nice if they could win their division and secure homefield advantage, but the rest of the NFC is so weak that the Cowboys could make a run though the post-season even as a wild card and they are arguably the second best team in the NFC overall behind their division rivals. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC East