Atlanta Falcons 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 19, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Falcons ended the Matt Ryan era after 15 seasons, shipping the veteran to the Colts for a third round pick. It seemed to be the start of a full on rebuild, with the Falcons coming off 5 straight seasons in NFL purgatory, winning between 4-10 games, including three seasons with exactly seven wins. Seven is the number of games the Falcons won in their final season with Ryan in 2021, but they were even worse than that suggested, as they went 7-2 in one-score games, finishing 28th in both point differential and DVOA, even with Ryan having a decent season.

Without Ryan, the Falcons looked likely to be one of the worst teams in the league in 2022. Ryan was replaced with third round pick Desmond Ridder and veteran Marcus Mariota, who would start until Ridder was ready to get a shot, an uninspiring duo on an uninspiring roster. The Falcons defense did as expected, finishing 30th in defensive DVOA last season, but their offense was actually pretty solid, ranking 13th in offensive DVOA.

Their quarterback duo was unspectacular as expected, with Mariota completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in the first 13 starts of the season and Ridder completing 63.5% for his an average of just 6.16 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in the final 4 starts of the season, after the Falcons fell out of playoff contention and let the rookie play. However, the Falcons excelled on the ground, ranking 1st in carries (559), 3rd in rushing yards (2,718), 10th in rushing touchdowns (17), and 4th in YPC (4.86), which is why they were slightly above average overall on offense, in spite of their lack of a consistent passing game.

The Falcons didn’t find an upgrade under center this off-season, winning too many games last season (7-10) to be in position to draft a top quarterback without paying a steep price to move up, the Falcons settled for veteran Taylor Heinicke, who they are hoping will be a backup to an improved Desmond Ridder, in his second season in the league. Ridder didn’t show a lot in limited action as a rookie, with a 55.9 PFF grade, a downgrade from Mariota, who was at 66.3, and the history of third round pick quarterbacks developing into anything more than career backups or journeymen is limited, but it’s possible he could take a step forward in year two and at least keep Heinicke on the bench for most of the year, barring injury.

Heinicke is a solid backup option, but his career QB rating is just 85.7 in 25 starts, all but one of which have come in the past two seasons, when he has received grades of 59.4 and 49.8 respectively from PFF. If Ridder doesn’t play well enough to keep Heinicke on the bench, the Falcons’ passing game is going to be in a lot of trouble. This is one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the NFL, with Heinicke being a backup caliber quarterback and Ridder yet to establish himself as a starting caliber player either.

Grade: C

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Falcons rushing attack was one of the best in the league last season and kept this offense slightly above average overall, despite their passing game issues. Run blocking was a big part of the reason for their success, as they ranked 1st in team PFF run blocking, but their running backs were successful in their own right. Fifth round rookie Tyler Allegier led the way, taking 210 carries for 1,035 yards (4.93 YPC) and 3 touchdowns, while ranking 17th in carry success rate at 52% and ranking 6th on PFF in overall rushing grade at 88.0. It’s possible he won’t be quite as good going forward, but he has clearly established himself as being a great value at his draft position.

Veteran Cordarelle Patterson also got in on the action last season, taking 144 carries for 695 yards (4.83 YPC) and 8 touchdowns, while ranking 1st in carry success rate at 60% and ranking 13th on PFF in overall rushing grade at 83.5. That was only his second full season as a running back, spending his first eight seasons in the league as a reserve wide receiver, an occasional running back, and a dynamic return man, before rushing for 4.04 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 153 carries in his first full season as a running back in 2021. Patterson is going into his age 32 season, but is coming off the better of his two seasons as a running back and could remain a useful complementary running back. The Falcons also got 366 yards and a touchdown on 76 carries (4.82 YPC) out of #3 running back Caleb Huntley (86.0 PFF run grade) last season, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career.

Allegier, Patterson, and Huntley all return for 2023, but, despite that and despite other needs elsewhere, the Falcons opted to use the 8th overall pick on Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is one of the better running back prospects of the last couple decades, but the recent history of running backs being taken in the top-10 and proving to be worth it is not favorable, especially when you consider how easy it is to find running backs cheap and plug them in behind good blocking to get rushing production, like the Falcons did last season.

Patterson now could wind up being cut, now as the likely third running back on the depth chart or even the fourth, depending on Huntley. He is getting up there in age and owed a non-guaranteed 4.25 million, and even if he returns it will mostly be for his special teams ability, without any real role in the backfield barring injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Tyler Allegier isn’t going anywhere though and still figures to have a role on what is likely to be a run-heavy offense. Robinson will get a lot of touches, but a lot of those will come in the passing game, so Allegier is likely to still receive more than a handful of carries per game, while Huntley likely stays on the roster as a deep reserve option, based on the promise he showed in limited action last season.

The passing game is where Robinson most sets himself apart, as Allegier, Patterson, and Huntley averaged just 0.79, 0.72, and 0.10 yards per route run respectively last season. Patterson has been better in the past, averaging 1.26 yards per route run in eight seasons as a wide receiver and 2.24 yards per route run in his first season as a running back in 2021, but Robinson still figures to see the majority of the passing down snaps. This backfield is definitely made better by the addition of Robinson, but it’s unclear if that addition was enough of an upgrade to be worth where the Falcons selected him, especially when they had other needs. They will likely remain one of the best rushing offenses in the league, but they probably won’t be significantly better than a year ago, when they were already one of the best in the league.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

In addition to excelling in run blocking, the Falcons also ranked 8th in team pass blocking grade on PFF, as they were truly one of the best offensive lines in the league. Things are mostly the same this year, with a couple exceptions. One is left guard, which was the one weakness of this group a year ago, with Colby Gossett (267 snaps) and Elijah Wilkinson (574 snaps) being the primary starters and earning mediocre PFF grades of 55.3 and 64.3 respectively. Both Gossett and Wilkinson are no longer with the team and the Falcons could easily get better play at the left guard in their absence.

An option the Falcons have now that they didn’t have a year ago is 2nd round rookie Matthew Bergeron, who could be an instant starter at left guard as a rookie, but they also have Matt Hennessy, who missed most of last season with injury, but flashed a lot of potential with a 75.4 grade in three starts at left guard last season, after a 76.4 grade while making all 17 starts at center in 2021 in the first significant action of the 2020 3rd round pick’s career. Hennessy struggled in pass protection at center (50.5 PFF grade in pass protection), mostly earning his solid overall grade in 2021 from his dominant run blocking grade (88.1), but he was better in pass protection in limited action at guard (69.0), while keeping up a high level of run blocking (82.6).

Still only in his age 26 season, Hennessy has a lot of potential if healthy. He and the rookie Bergeron will compete for the starting job, with the loser serving as valuable depth, and whoever wins the job could easily prove to be an upgrade over what the Falcons had at the position a year ago. 2021 3rd round pick Jalen Mayfield could also technically be a candidate for the left guard job, where he made 16 starts as a rookie, but he struggled mightily (48.7 PFF grade), before missing all of last season with injury. Still only in his age 23 season, he shouldn’t be completely written off, but he’ll almost definitely start the season as a reserve.

The other difference on this offensive line this season is they are very unlikely to get 17 starts out of their other four offensive line starters again this season, meaning their depth will be tested more and their overall performance will likely suffer as a result, even if only slightly. The strength of this offensive line was on the right side, where right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary excelled, with Lindstrom finishing 1st among guards on PFF with a 95.0 grade and McGary finishing 4th among tackles with a 86.6 grade, including run blocking grades of 93.1 and 91.6 respectively.

Lindstrom and McGary were both first round picks in 2019, selected 14th and 31st overall respectively, but they took very different paths to get from there to where they are now. Lindstrom missed most of his rookie season with injury, but flashed potential with a 66.6 PFF grade on 309 snaps and has improved in every season since, from 77.1 in his 2nd season to 83.7 in 2021 to his dominant 95.0 grade last season, while making all 50 possible starts over that stretch. He might not be quite as dominant again in 2023, but, still only in his age 26 season, he figures to be one of, if not the best guards in the league for years to come.

McGary, on the other hand, is a one-year wonder who was mediocre for much of the first three seasons of his career, before last season’s dominant performance. He made 45 of a possible 49 starts in his first three seasons in the league, but posted grades of 53.0, 64.3, and 62.8 respectively. His run blocking was solid, but he consistently struggled in pass protection. In 2022, he took a big leap forward in both aspects, becoming an above average pass protector who dominates in the run game. He’s still only in his age 28 season and he’s always had the talent, but it could be tough for McGary to repeat last season’s performance. He probably won’t regress all the way back to his pre-2022 form, but I would expect him to not be quite as good as he was a year ago, at the very least.

Left tackle Jake Matthews is also a former first round pick, going 6th overall back in the 2014 NFL Draft. Matthews was a very high draft pick and hasn’t been a spectacular player, but it’s also hard to argue he hasn’t been worth the pick, as he has made 145 of a possible 146 starts in nine seasons in the league thus far, only missing a game once way back in his rookie season, and, aside from his rookie season, he has finished above 70 on PFF in every season of his career, eight straight years dating back to 2015, including a 77.2 grade last season.

Matthews is now going into his age 31 season and will probably start to slow down soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of doing so yet, he has no injury history, and, even if he’s not quite as good this season as he’s been in the past, he should remain an above average starting left tackle at the very least. The Falcons will need Matthews and McGary to remain healthy, without a swing tackle on the roster who has ever started a game in the NFL, but they should remain at least an above average tackle duo, if not one of the best tackle duos in the NFL, which they arguably were a year ago.

Center Drew Dalman isn’t a former first round pick, but the 2021 4th rounder had a solid season in the first starting experience of his career last season, posting a 65.9 grade in 17 starts and providing more balanced play than Matt Hennessy did the year before, keeping Hennessy from taking the job back at all last season. The Falcons took South Carolina center Jovaughn Gwyn in the 7th round of the draft, but he’s unlikely to be anything more than a backup, so Dalman should remain the starter at center, with Hennessy competing for a job at guard. Dalman might not have a high upside, but figures to remain at least a solid starter. The Falcons’ offensive line might not be quite as good as a year ago and figures to have more injuries, but they should still remain one of the best offensive lines in the league, led by a trio of former first round picks who have all developed into among the better players in the league at their respective positions.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Falcons’ quarterback play was a big part of why they struggled in the passing game last season, but their receiving corps was a big part of the problem as well. The Falcons used a top-10 pick in 2021 (tight end Kyle Pitts #4) and a top-10 pick in 2022 (wide receiver Drake London #8) on pass catcher, but, aside from those two, the Falcons receiving corps consisted of journeymen and lightly drafted young players with minimal NFL experience. Things went from bad to worse mid-season when Kyle Pitts got hurt, ending his season after 434 snaps in 10 games.

With Pitts missing much of the year and the rest of this group being very mediocre, the rookie London was by far their most targeted receiver. The Falcons didn’t pass much, with their 415 pass attempts ranking 31st in the NFL, but London still received 117 of those, a whopping 28.2% target share, 3rd highest in the league. London averaged 2.07 yards per route run and dropped just two passes all season, while finishing 12th among wide receivers on PFF with a 83.2 overall grade, but that impressive performance and that huge target share only led to a 72/866/4 slash line and he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 7.40 yards per target. Part of that was quarterback play, but London was also consistently double teamed, without another reliable target in the passing game.

London is still only going into his age 23 season and could be even better in year two, but it could be hard for him to be too much better than he already was as a rookie and the Falcons didn’t really do anything to get him some help this off-season, aside from losing 2nd leading receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (1.47 yards per route run, 40/533/3 slash line) and replacing him with a comparable veteran Mack Hollins on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. London figures to continue having a high target share, but it’s hard to imagine him having a higher one than a year ago and he will still continue frequently being double teamed on a team that will be one of the run-heaviest in the league and that doesn’t have a quarterback to consistently get him the ball.

Free agent addition Mack Hollins was a 4th round pick in 2017 and was mostly a special teamer in his first five seasons in the league, but he ended up with a significant role with the Raiders last season and finished with a decent 57/690/4 slash line. However, he only averaged 1.14 yards per route run, while his career average is just 1.07 yards per route run, and he’s already heading into his age 30 season, so it’s not like he has any untapped potential and he could easily decline even further in the next couple years.

Hollins is a very uninspiring option as a #2 wide receiver and probably a downgrade even from Zaccheaus, but the Falcons don’t really have another choice and their options for a #3 wide receiver are even more limited, like they were a year ago. Last season, the 3rd ranked wide receiver on the team in terms of catches was veteran journeyman KhaDarel Hodge with just 13. He’s back in 2023 to compete for the #3 wide receiver role with third year receiver Frank Darby and free agent acquisition Scott Miller, all of whom are very uninspiring options.

Hodge has been in the league for five seasons, but the 13 catches he had last season tied a career high and his career yards per route run average is just 1.29. Darby was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and has only played 74 snaps in two seasons in the league since, despite ample opportunity to move up this weak depth chart. Miller is the most experienced of the bunch and probably the favorite for the #3 job, but the 2019 6th round pick caught just 74 passes in four seasons with the Buccaneers, while averaging just 1.25 yards per route run, prior to signing with the Falcons on a deal barely worth more than the minimum this off-season.

With no reliable wide receiver options behind London, the Falcons will need a big year out of Pitts, whose 28/356/2 slash line in 10 games last season was a disappointment even before he got hurt, considering where he was drafted and that had a 68/1026/1 slash line as a rookie, as compared to an extrapolated slash line of 48/605/3 last season if he had played 17 games. Pitts’ yards per route run average didn’t drop off significantly last season, down to 1.69 from 2.02 as a rookie, much of which can be attributed to the downgrade at quarterback. However, with the Falcons becoming so much more run-heavy last season, Pitts went from running 31.5 routes per game as a rookie to 22.9 last season before injury, even though his overall playing time didn’t change much, playing 45.4 snaps per game as a rookie and 45.6 snaps per game last season before injury. That significantly limited his opportunities to make plays in the passing game and it exposed his deficiencies as a run blocker.

Pitts was still relatively effective as a pass catcher when given the opportunity, ranking 6th among eligible tight ends in yards per route run and 8th in pass catching grade on PFF, after ranking 5th and 6th respectively in those two metrics as a rookie. He has a good chance to bounce back somewhat in 2023, but I wouldn’t expect him to get all the way back to his rookie year level of production, or even close to it. He’s still on a run heavy team, with a mediocre quarterback room, and he could lose some targets to a reserve, with the Falcons trading a late round pick and agreeing to a renegotiated 2-year, 15 million dollar deal with former New England tight end Jonnu Smith this off-season, a big investment in a #2 tight end.

The Falcons are lacking for depth at wide receiver and will use plenty of two tight end sets with Pitts and Smith on the field together, but Smith’s arrival isn’t good news for Pitts production, especially since Smith already has a history with head coach Arthur Smith from their days together with the Titans, where Arthur Smith was tight ends coach and eventually offensive coordinator. Jonnu Smith had spent the past two seasons with the Patriots, who bet on the 2017 3rd round pick’s upside with a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal two off-season ago.

Smith never surpassed 450 yards receiving in a season in four years with the Titans, but averaged a somewhat impressive 1.62 yards per route run in his final two seasons and the Patriots thought they could unlock his potential in a larger role. Smith actually averaged 1.64 yards per route run in his two seasons in New England, but he never really got that larger role in the passing game, playing a part-time role behind Hunter Henry (snap counts of 525 and 422) being primarily used as a blocker (62.3% of his snaps), which was not his strong suit.

As a result of his limited playing time in the passing game, Smith totaled slash lines of just 28/294/1 and 27/245/0 in two seasons in New England, which is why they were so eager to move on from him this off-season, ahead of a previously scheduled 11 million dollar salary, 6.25 million of which was guaranteed. Smith is kind of an odd fit on the run heavy Falcons, as a tight end whose strength is the passing game and who struggles as a blocker, but the Falcons need pass catchers anyway they can get them and Smith’s salary suggests they expect him to have at least some role in the passing game this season.

Smith is an obvious upgrade on the three tight ends who saw action behind Pitts last season, Parker Heese, who led the position group with 646 snaps played with Pitts missing time with injury, Anthony Firkser, and Mycole Pruitt, a trio which combined for just a 30/339/4 slash line on 45 targets and that averaged just 1.10 yards per route run. Firkser and Pruitt are no longer with the team, while Heese is now the #3 tight end at best. Smith is also much more of a threat to Pitts’ role than any of the aforementioned tight ends, but there will be opportunities for both tight ends to get playing time and targets, in a position group with arguably the worst group of wide receivers in the league. Top wide receiver Drake London elevates the group somewhat, but they have next to nothing behind him on the depth chart and tight ends Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith aren’t enough to make up for it.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

While the Falcons’ offense was solid last year, carried by their dominant run game, their defense was horrendous, ranking 30th in DVOA allowed, keeping the Falcons out of the post-season. The Falcons will likely remain a dominant running team on offense in 2023 and could remain a decent unit on that side of the ball as a result, even with what looks like a once again underwhelming passing game, but if they are going to take the next step as a team they are going to improve significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Fortunately, defensive performance is much more unpredictable and inconsistent year-to-year than offensive performance and the Falcons did a good job adding upgrades on this side of the ball this off-season.

Nowhere did the Falcons add more than at the edge defender position, where they signed Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree in free agency to 1-year deals worth 7 million and 3 million respectively, in addition to using a 3rd round pick on Ohio State’s Zach Harrison. It makes sense that the Falcons would focus on this position, as they had just 21 sacks last season (2nd worst in the NFL), 18 sacks the season before (worst in the NFL), and somehow haven’t had more than 39 sacks in a season since 2004. They really needed to improve their edge defender group.

Now, if anything, the Falcons have a crowded edge defender group. They also re-signed veteran Lorenzo Carter to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season, after he led this group with 909 snaps played last season, 7th most in the league among edge defenders. Carter undoubtedly will play significantly weaker snaps in a much deeper group this year, but the Falcons also still have second year players Arnold Ebiketie (516 snaps) and DeAngelo Malone (216 snaps), who went in the 2nd round and respectively respectively, as well as 2021 5th round pick Adetokunbo Ogundeji (541 snaps), who all played at least somewhat significant snap counts last season.

To rectify the logjam at the edge defender position, the Falcons could have Calais Campbell line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, something he has done frequently throughout his career, sometimes on a full time basis. Despite that, he has still been a highly productive pass rusher, getting production regardless of where he’s been lined up, totaling 99 sacks, 161 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 227 career games in 15 seasons in the league, while playing at a high level against the run as well, both on the inside and on the edge.

As a result of his high level of performance, Campbell has finished above 70 on PFF in 12 straight seasons, including 6 straight seasons over 80 in his prime from 2014-2019. Campbell is now going into his age 37 season, so his best days are behind him and he could easily decline further this season, but he is still coming off of a season in which he played 548 snaps and received a 77.2 grade from PFF, playing the run well and totaling 5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so even if he does decline significantly in 2023, he could still be a useful player for the Falcons, especially when you consider his versatility. On top of that, if he can continue his level of play from recent seasons (71.9, 80.8, and 77.2), he will be a very valuable asset for the Falcons, who haven’t had a pass rusher like that in years.

Bud Dupree isn’t as promising of a free agent signing, which is why he came so much cheaper, even just two off-seasons after signing a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar deal with the Titans, who ended up paying him 35.25 million over just two seasons. Dupree was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2015 and seemingly had a breakout year in his 5th season in the league 2019, posting a career high 77.7 PFF grade and totaling 11.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but wasn’t as good the following season and then suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 11 games. That didn’t deter the Titans from giving him that aforementioned big contract, but Dupree was never worth it, in part because subsequent injuries limited him to just 11 games in each of the past two seasons as well.

Dupree now heads into his age 30 season and, in eight seasons in the league, his only other season higher than 70 on PFF was another injury plagued season in his 2nd season in the league in 2016, when he earned a 71.6 grade on 319 snaps in seven games. In his last two seasons with the Titans, Dupree has received grades of 54.2 and 58.2 respectively, with just 7 sacks, 9 hits, a pressure rate of 9.2% in 22 games. He could be a little bit better in 2023, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and, given his age and injury history, he could easily continue struggling and/or miss more time with injury this season. He probably won’t have more than a rotational role in a position group that is much deeper than a year ago.

Fellow veteran Lorenzo Carter also figures to have a rotational role, after playing a heavy snap count in a much thinner position group a year ago. That could benefit Carter, whose 60.5 PFF grade last season was the worst of his 5-year career. That being said, his career high PFF grade for a season is 70.7 all the way back in 2019, so, even when he’s been a rotational player in his career, he’s never been more than a solid option. He’ll probably be better than a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect more than slightly above average play from him in a rotational role.

Of the Falcons’ young edge defenders, Arnold Ebiketie has the most promise, selected 38th overall a year ago. His 64.5 PFF grade as a rookie is middling, but it was not bad for a rookie and his snap count of 516 was not bad for a rookie either, so he could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league and become a more effective player. DeAngelo Malone didn’t play as many snaps as a rookie, only playing 216 nondescript snaps, but he was a relatively high draft pick too (82nd) and could take a step forward in a larger role in year two.

Meanwhile, the rookie Zach Harrison could also see action as a rookie and, even if he doesn’t, is obviously locked into a roster spot based on where he was drafted. Adetokunbo Ogundeji, on the other hand, struggled mightily last season with a 43.8 PFF grade and could end up being the odd man out in a much deeper group this season, after also struggling with a 54.2 PFF grade on 527 snaps as a rookie in 2021. He’s better against the run than he is as a pass rusher, but he only has a 3.6% pressure rate for his career and his run defense hasn’t been that good either.

Ogundeji was only a 5th round pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a capable rotational player, and, with the Falcons adding three edge defenders in the first three rounds of the past two drafts, as well as a pair of veterans added in free agency this off-season, it seems likely that Ogundeji will be starting this season either on the practice squad or another team’s roster. This still isn’t a great group, especially since Campbell will line up on the interior rather than the edge in many obvious passing situations, but they are much deeper as a group and have many more useful options than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Falcons’ big addition this off-season was David Onyemata, who came over on a 3-year, 35 million dollar deal from the Saints, with whom he spent the first seven seasons of his career, after being drafted by them in the 4th round in 2016. During that time, Onyemata developed into an above average starter, with four seasons above 70 on PFF in a 6-span span, including 81.9, 88.2, and 81.9 in 2018, 2020, and 2021 respectively. He has especially played well as a pass rusher, with 23 sacks, 35 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 90 games over the past six seasons combined, while finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons, but he also held up against the run as well, finishing above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons prior to 53.0 in 2022.

Onyemata’s decline against the run last season is a concern because he is now heading into his age 31 season and could easily continue declining. He still had 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season, but, because of his run struggles, his 64.0 overall grade on PFF was the second worst of the past six seasons and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if his best days were behind him at this point. Still, he should remain at least a solid starter and one who is at his best as a pass rusher, which is much needed for the Falcons. Onyemata figures to start inside next to Grady Jarrett, who has been an above average starter for the Falcons for years.

Jarrett hasn’t been quite as good over the past two seasons as he was in his prime, when he finished above 80 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2017-2020 on an average of 791 snaps per season, and his decline is a concern, considering he now heads into his age 30 season, but he still received PFF grades of 67.6 and 71.3 on snap counts of 864 and 856 respectively over the past two seasons, so he still remains an above average every down starter and could easily remain that into 2023, even if his best days are behind him.

For his career, he has 32.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 127 games and his pass rush numbers over the past two seasons aren’t too far off, with 7 sacks, 21 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 34 games. He’s also remained a solid run defender, allowing him to continue playing every down. It’s possible he could totally drop off this season, but I would expect more of the same from him as the past two seasons, considering he isn’t totally over the hill and doesn’t have a significant injury history, having played in every game in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, with just 3 total missed games ever.

Adbullah Anderson (433 snaps), who was solid in a rotational role last season with a 62.8 PFF grade, is no longer with the team, but the Falcons still have Ta’Quon Graham (471 snaps), who figures to be their top reserve this season behind Jarrett and Onyemata. A 5th round pick in 2021, Graham isn’t much of a pass rusher, with a 4.5% pressure rate in two seasons in the league, but he improved significantly as a run defender from year one to year two, with a 50.8 PFF grade against the run as a rookie and a much improved 73.6 last season. It’s possible he could regress as a run defender going forward, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player, especially in base packages, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got a little better as a pass rusher as well. He’s good depth to have.

The wild card of the group is Eddie Goldman, a veteran who is back after retiring for the 2022 season. Goldman was one of the best interior defenders in the league in 2018 with the Bears, with a 87.3 PFF grade on 552 snaps, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but his career took a sharp downturn, as he fell to 70.7 on PFF on 467 snaps in 2019, sat out the 2020 season during COVID restrictions, and then was horrendous upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade on 336 snaps, leading to the Bears releasing him. The Falcons took a flier on him, but he abruptly retired in the middle of the off-season, before unretiring at season’s end.

Goldman is apparently committed to the Falcons for 2023 and he’s still relatively young and has some upside, but it’s hard to know what to expect from a player who hasn’t even shown decent play in four years and who has sat out two of the past three seasons. He’ll compete for a deep reserve role, with his primary competition being Timmy Horne, a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily on 385 snaps as a rookie with a 47.4 PFF grade, but who could theoretically be better in year two and who could continue having a rotational role if Goldman can’t re-establish himself in the NFL. Jarrett and Onyemata are both over 30, as is Campbell, who figures to see a lot of snaps on the interior in sub packages, but all three could remain above average players and the addition of the latter two should be a big boost for this position group, which needed one.

Grade: B

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, the Falcons’ big off-season addition was another former Saint, Kaden Elliss, who came over from the division rival on a 3-year, 21.5 million dollar deal. He’s essentially a replacement with free agent departure Rashaan Evans, who played 1,104 snaps last season to lead this linebacking corps. Elliss might not play quite that many snaps, but Evans was pretty mediocre with a 59.6 PFF grade last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Elliss to be an upgrade and to be more impactful, even on a likely smaller snap count.

Elliss was only a 7th round pick in 2019 and only played 197 defensive snaps across his first three seasons in the league, as primarily a special teamer, but he always flashed potential on defense in limited action and ended up playing 632 snaps in his 4th season in the league in 2022, which led to a breakout season, as he finished with PFF’s 6th highest grade among linebackers at 81.5, playing well in coverage and against the run, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, both as a blitzer and as a sub package edge defender, totaling 7 sacks, 4 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in a limited pass rush role. He’s a one-year wonder who might not be quite as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, but he still figures to be an upgrade on Evans and is well-rounded enough to play every down.

Mykal Walker (769 snaps) and Troy Andersen (481 snaps) also saw significant snap counts last season and remain on the team, so they figure to continue seeing significant roles, especially with Elliss unlikely to play as many snaps as Evans did. Walker was the better of the two, but he still wasn’t great, finishing with a 58.7 PFF grade, a disappointment because the 2020 4th round pick flashed a lot of potential as a reserve in his first two seasons in the league, with a 74.0 PFF grade on 387 snaps as a rookie and a 71.3 grade on 194 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021.

Walker is still only going into his age 26 season and could be better in what would be his second season as a starter if he manages to keep the job, but it’s also possible he never translates the promise he showed as a reserve into a larger role. Andersen, meanwhile, was also a disappointment last season, managing just a 40.2 PFF grade, despite being a second round pick. He was also a rookie and still could easily develop into a solid starter long-term, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in year two, but he could still continue struggling and I would guess that Walker remains ahead of him on the depth chart for now, leaving Andersen in a more limited role. Replacing Rashaan Evans with Kaden Elliss improves this group a lot, but they’re still not a great linebacking corps.

Grade: B

Secondary

In the secondary, the Falcons’ big addition was safety Jessie Bates, who came over from the Bengals on a 4-year, 64.02 million dollar deal. That contract makes Bates the 3rd highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary, but, when he’s at his best, he’s well worth it. A 2nd round pick in 2018 and a 5-year starter (79 of a possible 82 starts), Bates was PFF’s 12th ranked safety as a rookie with a 79.9 grade, their 1st ranked safety in 2020 with a 90.1 grade, and their 13th ranked safety in 2022 with a 76.8 grade, but he’s been pretty inconsistent, which is why he was available in free agency. In his other two seasons, 2019 and 2021, he finished with PFF grades of 61.2 and 56.1 respectively.

Bates fared well on the franchise tag last season, but his struggles in the final year of his rookie deal in 2021 led to the Bengals not extending him a long-term contract last off-season, opting for the short-term franchise tag instead. Bates is still only going into his age 27 season and has an upside that is as high as any safety in the league, but he doesn’t always play to his potential and it’s possible he’ll do so even less now that he’s gotten paid on a big contract. Still, Bates is an obvious upgrade on incumbent safety Jaylinn Hawkins, who had a 59.8 PFF grade last season in 16 starts, his 3rd straight season below 60 to start his career since going in the 4th round in 2020. Hawkins will now be the 3rd safety at best, with fellow incumbent Richie Grant expected to keep his starting job.

Grant is going into his second season as a starter, as the 2021 2nd round pick played 276 nondescript snaps as a rookie, before taking a step forward as a 17-game starter in 2022, receiving a 64.9 PFF grade and playing all but 5 defensive snaps all season. Grant is already going into his age 26 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had further untapped upside and took another step forward in his third season in the league in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.

The Falcons also added cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Jeffrey Okudah this off-season, a pair of former Lions, the former coming in on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal and the latter being added in a trade for a 5th round pick, giving the Falcons some stability at a position where six different players played at least 200 snaps last season. AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward were their week one outside starting cornerbacks and they finished the 2021 season 3rd and 16th among cornerbacks on PFF with grades of 82.6 and 76.0 respectively, Hayward doing so with the Raiders.

However, in 2022, Hayward was limited to 355 snaps in 6 games and a 64.7 PFF grade by injuries, while Terrell suffered injuries of his own and fell to 63.9 on 800 snaps in 14 games. Terrell is still on the team and, while the 2020 1st round pick is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2021, he’s still only going into his age 25 season and his 4th season in the league and, even if he doesn’t bounce all the way back to his 2021 level of play, he has a good shot to be an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Hayward, on the other hand, was a free agent this off-season ahead of his age 34 season and, as a result, was not retained.

With Hayward gone, expect Hughes and Okudah to be the other two cornerbacks with Terrell in sub packages. Darren Hall (633 snaps), Cornell Armstrong (372 snaps), and Dee Alford (246 snaps) also saw action last season and are still on the team, but only Hall is a real candidate to win a top-3 cornerback job, as the 2021 4th round pick had a 65.5 PFF grade last season, after struggling on 283 snaps as a rookie. Alford was also decent last season (64.8 PFF grade), but the 2022 undrafted free agent barely saw much action and would be a projection to a larger role.

Armstrong, on the other hand, struggled with a 57.2 PFF grade, unsurprising for a player who has never finished above 60 on PFF in five seasons in the league. Hall and Alford are likely to provide solid depth, but, most likely, it will be Terrell, Hughes, and Okudah as the top-3 cornerbacks, with Terrell as the top cornerback and Hughes and Okudah competing for roles behind him, in their first season with the team after being added from the Lions this off-season.

Okudah was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Lions, but he struggled mightily with a 42.5 PFF grade on 460 snaps as a rookie and then missed almost all of his second season with injury (48 snaps) and, while he was able to return to make 15 starts in 2022, he received just a 59.4 grade from PFF, so it’s not surprising the Lions declined his 5th year option and traded him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal for relatively minimal compensation. Okudah is only going into his age 24 season though and may still have further untapped upside, in his 4th season in the league, another year removed from his injury, with a chance of scenery with a new team. That’s far from a guarantee and he could continue to struggle, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had his best year yet in 4th and developed into at least a solid starter long-term.

Hughes is also a former first round pick, selected 30th overall by the Vikings in 2018. Hughes showed some promise early in his career, but was very inconsistent and injuries limited him to just 24 of a possible 48 games in his first three seasons in the league, leading to the Vikings trading him for cheap to the Chiefs after just three seasons. With the Chiefs, Hughes flourished as a part-time player, staying healthy and posting a 79.6 PFF grade on 509 snaps in 17 games.

However, Hughes signed a one-year deal with the Lions last off-season and was not as good in a similar role, with a 59.9 PFF grade on 561 snaps in 16 games. Hughes is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s still never played more than the 561 snaps he played last season, so while he has upside and is fairly young, he has a history of injury and inconsistency that have prevented him from ever being a season long starter. The Falcons will give him a chance to, but it’s possible he could lose his job to a reserve like Darren Hall. With Hughes, Okudah, and especially Jessie Bates being added, this secondary is much improved this off-season, much like most of this defense, which is a welcome sight for a defense that was one of the worst in the league a year ago.

Grade: B

Conclusion

A year ago, the Falcons had a solid offense (13th in DVOA) and a horrible defense (30th in DVOA). This year, their defense looks much improved after off-season additions like safety Jessie Bates, linebacker Kaden Elliss, interior defender David Onyemata, and edge defender Calais Campbell, all of whom should be above average starters, while their offense looks similar to a year ago, with a dominant running game and offensive line and a very underwhelming passing game.

They could remain a solid offense again, which, paired with an improved defense, could make the Falcons a decent team, but rushing performance is much less predictable and predictive year-to-year than passing performance and the Falcons probably need an unexpected big improvement from quarterback Desmond Ridder to be more than a decent team. They could still make the post-season, by virtue of their weak division, but even that’s not a guarantee and they are unlikely to make much noise once they get there if they happen to make it. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South

New Orleans Saints 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 17, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

Two off-seasons ago, the Saints lost quarterback Drew Brees to retirement, ending an era of Hall of Fame caliber quarterback play under center. The Saints had been aggressive with the salary cap for years to try to maximize their championship window before Brees called it quits and, while it didn’t result in a Super Bowl victory, it did result in the Saints having the NFL’s best record across the final four seasons of Brees’ career at 49-15. When Brees retired, it seemed likely that the Saints would go through a full rebuild to try to clear up cap space long-term to try to be competitive again in a couple years. Instead, however, they have doubled down on most of their existing roster, even without Brees, continuing to aggressively borrow against the future cap, to the point where the Saints are already about 77 million above next year’s cap.

This off-season, part of the Saints’ aggressive strategy included adding a new quarterback on a big contract, signing top free agent quarterback Derek Carr to a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal that makes him the 12th highest paid quarterback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. Carr is not a bad starting quarterback, but it’s hard to justify him being paid at that level and I’m not even sure he’s a significant upgrade over the Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton combination the Saints had last season, which had a combined QB rating of 93.6, higher than Carr’s career average of 91.8 and significantly higher than the 86.3 Carr had last season.

Dalton in particular started most of the games for the Saints last season (14) and played at a pretty high level, with a 95.2 QB rating and a 82.1 PFF grade, a grade higher than Carr has had in all but two of his ten seasons in the league. Carr could still be an upgrade under center for the Saints, but probably not by a significant enough amount to justify the huge payday he got, which the Saints could have used on the rest of this roster or used to help their long-term financial situation.

Dalton is gone, but Winston remains with the team on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and will settle in as the backup, after an unsuccessful attempt to establish himself as the starter over the past two seasons. Injuries were a big part of the problem, as he made just 10 starts total, but Dalton ultimately outplayed him last season to keep the job after Winston was healthy again and Winston has just a 87.5 career QB rating overall, so it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. He’ll be one of the better backups in the league though and, while Carr is overpaid, he’s not a bad starting option, so this is at least a decent quarterback room, with 4th round pick Jake Haener also added this off-season as a potential long-term backup option.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One player the Saints could have moved on from this off-season was wide receiver Michael Thomas, but the Saints opted to bring him back on a reduced, but fully guaranteed 1-year, 10 million contract. Thomas had previously been on a 5-year, 96.25 million dollar deal that began during the 2020 season, after the end of the 2016 2nd round pick’s rookie contract, but because of injuries Thomas has played just ten games in the three seasons since the extension began, with just three of those games coming in the past two seasons, and has been a shelf of his former self even when he has played, with just 56 catches for 609 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 10 games. That’s not terrible, but this coming is from a player who averaged a 118/1378/8 slash line per season in his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 149/1725/9 in 2019, his last healthy season.

Thomas is now going into his age 30 season with his last healthy season being four years ago, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, especially without Drew Brees to throw him the ball, but he still could be a useful pass catcher for this offense if healthy. The Saints won’t need him to be their #1 receiver anymore anyway, having found a new one in the first round of last year’s draft, where they took wide receiver Chris Olave, whose 72/1042/4 slash line as a rookie made him a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Olave was even better than that suggests, as he wasn’t even an every down player, seeing just 607 snaps in 15 games (40.5 snaps per game). Olave was very efficient with the limited playing time he did get, as his 2.42 yards per route run average ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, while his 82.5 PFF grade ranked 14th. Olave should play a bigger role in year two and become even more productive as a result. He has a great chance to take a step forward and prove himself as one of the better wide receivers in the league in year two and beyond.

Olave’s performance isn’t that surprising considering where the Saints drafted him, but they also got a surprisingly impressive rookie year performance from undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed was originally brought in to be a return man, but he ended up playing 298 snaps on offense and showed his explosiveness as a pass catcher, with a 28/488/2 slash line despite minimal playing time, averaging 2.59 yards per route run on the season, as well as 17.4 yards per catch, 14.4 yards per target, and 6.2 yards per catch after catch. He also showed his abilities in the open field on the ground with 57 yards and a touchdown on four carries.

Of the snaps Shaheed played, 253 of them came in week 11 or later as he started to get more significant playing time down the stretch and, overall, he finished with a 80.8 overall grade on PFF, impressive even if it was in limited action. In the 7 games he played in week 11 or later, Shaheed had a 23/384/1 slash line, good for 56/933/2 extrapolated across 17 games, despite still only being a part-time player (36.1 snaps per game played).

The Saints didn’t bring back Jarvis Landry (301 snaps) and Marquez Callaway (397 snaps) this off-season, so Shaheed doesn’t have much competition for the #3 wide receiver job outside of holdover Tre’Quan Smith (403 snaps), who will likely continue to have at least some role, but who probably will be behind Shaheed on the depth chart. Shaheed could prove to be a fluke that doesn’t translate to a larger role, but, even as a recent undrafted free agent, he has a lot of potential.

Smith, on the other hand, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and flashed some potential as a rookie, with 1.34 yards per route run, but that fell to 0.82 and 1.12 the next two seasons and, while it increased to 1.25 in 2021 and a career best 1.56 last season, he never became more than a part-time player (career high 672 snaps in 2020) and that will likely remain the case in 2023, as Shaheed is a much higher upside option. Smith is still only going into his age 27 season and isn’t a bad 4th receiver and reserve option, but he’s unlikely to be that productive even if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart and give him an opportunity to play more.

The Saints got decent production from their tight ends last season, with Adam Trautman averaging 1.49 yards per route run and Juwan Johnson averaging 1.39 yards per route run. Johnson did it in a much bigger passing game role, playing 647 snaps total to Trautman’s 519, with the majority of Trautman’s snaps coming as a blocker in run situations. Johnson actually finished the season second on the team in receiving with a 42/508/7 slash line, without a consistent #2 wide receiver all season, while Trautman finished at just 18/207/1.

Trautman was traded to the Broncos for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will essentially be replaced by free agent addition Foster Moreau, who comes over from the Raiders on a 3-year, 12.234 million dollar deal. Moreau essentially played a starter’s snap total in each of the past two seasons, with 749 in 2021 and 745 last season, but he averaged just 1.19 yards per route run and a 32/397/3 slash line per season, while posting overall grades of 58.8 and 61.1 on PFF. The 2019 4th round pick flashed potential early in his career, with grades of 70.8 and 67.2 in his first two seasons in the league, as well an average of 1.41 yards per route run, but that came on snap totals of just 373 and 257 respectively and he hasn’t been able to translate to that a larger role.

I would expect that to continue in New Orleans, though he could see a smaller snap count, more in line with Trautman’s old role as a blocking specialist, with Johnson playing well enough last season to remain the top pass catching tight end. Johnson is a one-year wonder coming off of a career year though, as the 2020 undrafted free agent averaged just 0.81 yards per route run in the first two seasons of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2023, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner and remained a decent pass catching tight end, one who holds his own as a run blocker as well.

The Saints also have Taysom Hill, who is technically listed as a tight end, but most frequently lined up as a wildcat quarterback last season, playing quarterback on 148 of 324 snaps, as opposed to just 51 as an inline tight end. Hill seldom threw the ball, with just 19 pass attempts, but he was very effective in his limited action with 13 completions for 240 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (146.3 QB rating), while showing his effectiveness in the open field with a 5.99 YPC average and a team leading 7 touchdowns on 96 carries.

In fact, the aspects of the game in which Hill most struggled were with traditional tight end duties, as he caught just nine passes and averaged just 0.62 yards per route run, while struggling to block as a 6-2 225 converted quarterback. That’s nothing new for Hill, who has been the ultimate gadget player in his career. He has averaged just 1.19 yards per route run for his career, while consistently struggling as a blocker, but he has also averaged 5.55 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 317 carries and has a career QB rating of 88.7, with just nine starts as an actual quarterback in his career.

Hill is now going into his age 33 season and could start to decline a little bit, but he should play his usual role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being effective in the aspects in which he has been effective throughout his career, even if he declines a little bit. He won’t have a huge role in the passing game in a group that has a couple capable tight ends, as well as a top-3 wide receiver group that has the upside to be among the best in the league, though Shaheed and Thomas both come with a lot of downside as well, given Shaheed’s inexperience and Thomas’ injury history.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back Alvin Kamara also played a big role in the passing game last season, finishing with a 57/490/2 slash line and averaging 1.66 yards per route down, both of which were third on the team. Kamara is still a useful pass catcher, but he was definitely a lot more productive when he played with Drew Brees, as he averaged a 82/706/4 slash line per season and 2.15 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league with Brees, as opposed to 52/465/4 and 1.64 yards per route run over the past two seasons on average.

Kamara has also seen his yards per carry average drop from 4.97 in his first four seasons in the league to just 3.88 over the past two seasons, in part due to having less room to run without a feared passing game taking pressure off him and in part due to having to carry the ball more often and wearing down, averaging 232 carries per season and 16.5 carries per game, as opposed to 168 carries per season and 11.2 carries per game in his first four seasons in the league. This off-season, the Saints tried to rectify the problem of overloading Kamara by signing Jamaal Williams to a not insignificant contract of 12 million over 3 years, as well as using a 3rd round pick on TCU’s Kendre Miller.

In addition to keeping Kamara fresher, the Saints likely made those additions in part because Kamara is facing a potential suspension of up to six games for an off the field issue, which could take place during the 2023 season, depending on the timing of his legal case. However, Williams and Miller will still help accomplish the goal of keeping Kamara fresher even when he does play, which should make him more efficient, still only in his age 28 season. Outside of Taysom Hill’s production, the Saints actually struggled on the ground last season, with #2 running back Mark Ingram totaling a YPC average of 3.76 on 62 carries that was even lower than Kamara’s 4.02 YPC average. With Williams and Miller being added, I would expect their running backs to be more effective this season than a year ago, even if Kamara gets suspended and misses significant action.

Williams actually led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 17, though he benefited from a great offensive line with the Lions and a league leading 41 carries inside the 10-yard line, which he took for 13 touchdowns. Still, Williams was effective in his own right, as he ranked 11th in carry success rate with 54%, after ranking 7th (53%), 6th (57%), and 18th (54%) in the previous three seasons. He also received a grade of 73.4 from PFF, his 4th straight season over 69. Even if he’s a one-year wonder in terms of posting the touchdown total he had last season (13 career touchdowns in five seasons in the league prior to last year), he’s proven himself as a consistently reliable between the tackles runner who can keep your offense on schedule and be effective in the red zone.

Williams is a good complement for the speedier Alvin Kamara and could see a significant role as a change of pace back and touchdown vulture, though Kamara figures to remain the primary passing down back, with Williams averaging just 1.07 yards per route run for his career. Miller, meanwhile, will likely be the third back and see minimal action unless one of the two running backs ahead of him on the depth chart are out of action, but that could easily be the case given Kamara’s legal situation, so Miller could easily find himself in a role splitting playing time with Williams for a stretch this season. This is a much deeper backfield than a year ago, which makes this position group better as a whole than a year ago, even with feature back Kamara possibly suspended for a significant amount of time.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

There isn’t much that changes on the offensive line this season for the Saints, who bring back all six offensive linemen who started at least six games upfront for them last season. There will likely be one difference though, as left tackle James Hurst, who played 973 snaps and started 16 games last season, will likely be replaced in the starting lineup by Trevor Penning, who played just 124 snaps and started just one game. That’s because Penning was a first round pick a year ago and he would have been a starter during his rookie season if he hadn’t gotten hurt before the season started. Hurst wasn’t bad in his absence, with a 63.2 PFF grade, but Penning flashed a lot of potential with a 73.6 PFF grade in limited action and could easily prove to be a significant upgrade, assuming the most likely scenario where he wins the job this off-season.

Hurst, meanwhile, will likely be a reserve, a role he could be very valuable in, having received a PFF grade higher than 60 in five straight seasons, while making 48 starts over that 5-year stretch, primarily at tackle, but also showing the ability to kick inside to guard in a pinch if needed. Hurst is now going into his age 32 season and has maxed out at 70.1 on PFF in nine seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have a huge upside and could easily start declining soon, but he’s more than qualified to be the first offensive linemen off the bench, especially when you consider his versatility.

Another difference the Saints are hoping for this season is better health on the interior of their offensive line and subsequently fewer starts made by reserve Calvin Throckmorton, who made six starts last season and struggled mightily with a 38.4 PFF grade. Josh Andrews also made five starts on the interior and struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade, before not being brought back this off-season, unlike Throckmorton, who returns as the Saints’ top interior reserve option, despite not only struggling mightily last season, but also in 2021, when he had a 42.4 PFF grade in the only other playing time of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career.

Left guard Andrus Peat missed the most time of the Saints’ interior offensive linemen last season, limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, which is nothing new for the 8-year veteran, who has missed 35 games total in his career, since being selected in the first round in 2015. Peat showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 61.0, 71.5, and 68.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in four of the previous five seasons, including a 50.6 in 2022, as injuries have seemingly sapped his abilities. Now going into his age 30 season, I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back, so he should continue struggling, in addition to likely missing more time with injury.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is also a former first round pick and he has also struggled in recent seasons, as the 2020 24th overall pick has received 58.6, 57.6, and 56.6 grades from PFF in three seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 24 season and could still take a step forward, but even if he does, it’s unlikely he’s more than a marginal starter. That would still be an upgrade on what he’s been thus far in his career, which is mostly a liability.

Center Erik McCoy is the best of the Saints’ interior offensive line, though he’s not without his own concerns. He only had a 61.2 PFF grade last season, the worst of his 4-year career and, in fact, McCoy has gotten worse in every season of his career, from 76.2 as a rookie to 70.1 in his second season to 63.6 in 2021, before his career worst year in 2022. Injuries have been part of the problem in the past two seasons though (9 games missed) and, only going into his age 26 season, the former second round pick has some bounce back potential if he’s healthy. He should remain at least a capable starting center, but he has the upside to be more if he’s at his best.

The best player on this offensive line is right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who led the group with a 77.9 PFF rating in 16 starts last season. That was actually a down year for Ramczyk, who had previously finished above 80 on PFF in each of his previous five seasons in the league, after being selected in the first round by the Saints in 2017. Ramczyk is still only going into his age 29 season with minimal injury history (nine games missed in his career), so he has a good chance to get back into that 80 range. He’s one of the best right tackles in the league and elevates an offensive line that has promise at left tackle and center as well, but a likely weakness at both guard spots.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Even with the Saints’ aggressive cap strategy, they couldn’t keep all of their key players this off-season, particularly at the interior defender position, where the Saints didn’t bring back their top-3 players in terms of snaps played from a year ago, David Onyemata (682 snaps), Shy Tuttle (557 snaps), and Kentavius Street (518 snaps). Street struggled mightily with a 49.2 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed, but Tuttle was a solid run defender in base packages (67.1 PFF grade against the run), while Onyemata was an effective pass rusher (66.9 PFF grade as a pass rusher, 9.1% pressure rate) and the Saints didn’t do a good job of replacing the departed interior defenders.

The Saints used the 29th overall pick on Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, who has a lot of upside and will likely be forced into a significant role right away as a rookie, but he figures to have at least some growing pains in year one. The Saints also signed veterans Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to 3-year deals worth 12.3 million and 15 million respectively, but both are underwhelming options. Saunders was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and barely played in his first three seasons, primarily due to injuries, playing just 521 mostly nondescript snaps total in 22 games across those three seasons combined.

Saunders finally stayed healthy for 2023, playing in 16 games and seeing a career high 421 snaps as a rotational player, but was only alright with a 60.2 PFF grade in his limited role. Saunders may still have some untapped upside if he can continue staying healthy, but he’s already in his age 27 season and I wouldn’t expect too much more from him in 2023, even assuming he can play close to a full season for just the second time in his career.

Shepherd, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has mostly been a rotational player in his career, averaging 364 snaps per season and receiving mostly middling grades from PFF. Now in his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to get any better and could easily start to decline and struggle even in a rotational role. The Saints also still have top holdover interior defender Malcolm Roach, but the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade on 316 snaps last season and has never been any better than that, playing just 427 snaps prior to last season and never receiving a grade higher than 50 from PFF.

Even if it’s as a deep reserve, Roach figures to still have somewhat of a role in this position group and if there are any injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he figures to be forced into a significant role, with the only other interior defender options currently on the roster being undrafted rookies. The Saints will be counting on the rookie Bresee to carry an otherwise very underwhelming position group and, while Bresee has a lot of upside long-term, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was unable to significantly elevate this position group by himself as a rookie.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The Saints didn’t lose as much at the edge defender position this off-season as they did on the interior, but they didn’t re-sign free agent Marcus Davenport. Davenport was mostly a rotational player with 490 snaps played in 15 games, but he was an effective one, with a 12.1% pressure rate, solid run defense, and a 76.8 overall grade from PFF. To replace him, the Saints used a second round pick in this year’s draft on Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey and they expect to get more from Payton Turner, also a recent high draft pick (28th overall in 2021), who was limited to 171 snaps in 8 games last season by injury. Those two young players will compete for playing time with holdovers Carl Granderson (480 snaps) and Tanoh Kpassagnon (356 snaps), with Cameron Jordan (790 snaps) likely leading the way once again, even going into his age 34 season.

Jordan has had a Hall of Fame caliber career, missing just two games in 12 seasons in the league, totaling 115.5 sacks, 113 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate, playing the run at a high level and finishing above 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, but he showed some signs of decline last season. For him, that meant he still received a 74.5 grade from PFF, so he was still an above average starter in an every down role, but that was his lowest PFF grade since 2014 and his lowest snap total since his rookie season in 2011. He also particularly declined as a pass rusher, still playing the run at a high level, but managing just a 7.9% pressure rate, his lowest since 2012. He could remain an above average every down player in 2023, but he could easily decline further and his best days are almost definitely behind him.

Jordan will probably remain their best edge defender, but only because none of their other options have that high of an upside. Carl Granderson received a 80.4 grade from PFF last season, but it came in a rotational role (480 snaps) and the 2019 undrafted free agent had never received a grade higher than 68.0 (2020) for a season from PFF prior to last season, while his previous career high in snaps was 448 in a 2021 season in which he received just a 63.2 grade from PFF. He could remain a high level rotational player, but he could easily decline a little and, even if he doesn’t, he’s still a projection to a larger role who might not play at the same level if forced into a larger role.

Kpassagnon has also mostly been a rotational player in his career and he’s also never been as good as Granderson was last season, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons. Payton Turner should theoretically have a high upside because of where he was drafted, but he’s played just 315 nondescript snaps in 13 games thus far in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. He figures to play more in 2023 by default, assuming he’s somewhat healthy, but it’s unclear if he’ll show why he was a high draft pick in the first place. With Jordan, Granderson, Kpassagnon, Turner, and the rookie Foskey, the Saints have options at the edge defender position, but Jordan appears to be on the decline, while the rest of the bunch have never shown themselves as reliable NFL starters, so this group has a pretty low floor, in addition to having a relatively high ceiling.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Saints also lost linebacker Kaden Elliss this off-season, a big loss as he was PFF’s 6th ranked off ball linebacker with a 81.5 grade on 632 snaps last season, playing well against the run and the pass, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, both as a blitzer and as a sub package edge defender, totaling 7 sacks (2nd most on the team), 4 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in a limited pass rush role. Making matters worse, their other top linebacker Demario Davis, who ranked 5th among off ball linebackers with a 82.7 PFF grade on 1,132 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 34 season and could start to decline significantly.

Like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis has been a consistently high level linebacker for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons, while playing 63.7 snaps per game in 97 of a possible 98 games over that stretch, and, like Jordan, it would be a big loss for this defense is Davis was no longer able to play at his usual level. Even if he declines from his usual dominant self, he still has a good chance to remain an above average every down linebacker, but his best days are probably behind him at this point of his career and a big dropoff from him would have big repercussions for this defense.

With Elliss gone and Davis aging, the Saints will need more out of third year linebacker Pete Werner. Originally a second round pick in 2021, Werner flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 79.9 PFF grade, but that came on 394 snaps in 14 games (28.1 snaps per game). In 2022, he wasn’t bad, but he couldn’t continue that high level of play into a bigger role, playing 49.7 snaps per game and finishing with a 64.4 grade on PFF, significantly down from his rookie season, while missing five games due to injury. Werner doesn’t have anyone blocking him from an every down role in his third season in the league in 2023 and figures to play even more snaps per game than he did a year ago. Only going into his age 24 season, he has the talent and upside to be effective in that role, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints don’t have much depth at the linebacker position, with 2020 3rd round pick Zach Baun, a career reserve and special teamer, likely to be the top reserve, mostly by virtue of his draft status and the Saints’ lack of competition, as he’s been pretty mediocre in just 361 career snaps in three seasons in the league and is no guarantee to be any better in 2023, already in his age 27 season. Baun won’t have to play a big role as the third linebacker in this defense, but the Saints play a 4-3 base defense, so he will have to see at least some action in base packages and he would be forced into a much bigger role if either Davis or Werner got hurt. Baun is an uninspiring option, but he’s the only realistic candidate to be the third linebacker in a very thin position group. This is still a solid group overall, but they will miss free agent departure Kaden Elliss and they would be in a lot of trouble if the aging Demario Davis got hurt or declined significantly.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback was the Saints’ biggest weakness on defense last season, as they had five cornerbacks play at least 350 snaps and the only one to finish above 60 on PFF was top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who only had a 64.7 grade on 415 snaps in 7 games in an injury plagued season. The Saints didn’t make any major additions at the position this off-season, so they will be hoping for a healthier year from Lattimore and better play from the rest of the bunch. Paulson Adebo (814 snaps), Alontae Taylor (663 snaps), and Bradley Roby (628 snaps) were their top-3 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season and all three return to the team in 2023 and have the potential to be better this season than they were a year ago.

Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 60.3 PFF grade on 851 snaps as a rookie, but he missed the start of the 2022 season with injury and never seemed to be healthy, leading to a 49.1 PFF grade for his second season in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Adebo could be a lot better in his third season in the league if he’s healthy and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if this season ended up being the best yet of his young career. Taylor is also young, going in the second round in 2022, and has a good chance in year two to improve on the 54.5 PFF grade he had last season, when he missed six games with injury and may have never really been healthy all year.

Roby, on the other hand, is a veteran, going into his 10th season in the league. He used to be a solid starter, with PFF grade above 60 in seven of his first eight seasons in the league prior to last season, with three seasons over 70. However, he fell all the way to 45.4 in his 9th season in the league 2022, while being limited to 632 snaps in 13 games by injury. Roby probably won’t be as bad in 2023, but that will probably be by default, as Roby is now entering his age 31 season and his best days are probably behind him as a result. He could easily continue being a liability even if he’s better than a year ago. He should start the season as a reserve behind young cornerbacks Taylor and Adebo, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Lattimore was disappointing by his standards last season even when on the field and, only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back, with three seasons over 70 in six years in the league. Durability has always been a concern for him though, as he’s missed 18 games total in his career, an average of three per season, while playing every game just once, so there’s a good chance he misses at least some time again this year. However, he should still be on the field significantly more than a year ago and he has a good chance to be more effective as well. He leads a cornerback group that has a lot of question marks behind him.

Things are better at safety where Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu were an above average safety duo a year ago and both return for 2023, heading into the 2nd year of 3-year contracts worth 22.5 million and 28.3 million respectively that the Saints signed them to as free agents last off-season. Mathieu was the better of the two in their first season in New Orleans, finishing as PFF’s 6th ranked safety with a 81.2 grade, the highest grade he’s had in a season since 2015 and his 6th season graded 70 or higher in 10 seasons in the league. Mathieu is going into his age 31 season and it’s probably unlikely he’ll repeat one of the best seasons of his career again in 2023, but he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive drop off.

Maye, meanwhile, finished last season with a 71.8 grade from PFF. He did miss seven games with injury, limiting him to 669 snaps total, but, all in all, the Saints have to be somewhat happy with Maye’s first year in New Orleans, considering he was coming off of a torn achilles that cost him most of the 2021 season. Maye only had a 55.9 PFF grade in 2021 even before the injury, but he had been over 70 in the previous three seasons from 2018-2020, including two seasons over 80, so it’s not a big surprise to see him have success last season even after the injury. Maye is only going into his age 29 season and, now another year removed from the injury, he could easily be even better this season. Durability remains a concern, with 28 games missed in six seasons in the league, but he’s also played every game in three of six seasons.

The Saints will need Maye and Mathieu to stay healthy this season, not only because they are one of the better safety duos in the league when healthy, but also because they don’t have the depth options they had at the position last season with Justin Evans (391 snaps), PJ Williams (298 snaps), and Daniel Sorensen (166 snaps) all no longer with the team. They were all middling at best in their limited action, but the Saints didn’t do much to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Minnesota’s Jordan Howden.

Even as a rookie, Howden compete for a reserve role with career special teamer JT Gray, who has played just 111 defensive snaps since going undrafted in 2018, and Johnathan Abram, a former first round pick bust of the Raiders, who has 36 career starts in four seasons with the league, but has never finished above 60 on PFF and is already on his 4th team in his career. Depth is a concern at safety, while their cornerback depth chart is full of question marks, but there are some proven players in this secondary and other players with the upside to take a step forward.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Saints weren’t a bad team last season, finishing 19th in DVOA, just slightly below average, but new quarterback Derek Carr isn’t going to give them a significant enough boost to make them a contender, especially when you consider the off-season losses they had on defense. Their offense should be better this year, not just because of Carr, but because they have better running back depth and should be healthier overall, after the 7th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense last season.

However, their defense had an ordinary amount of injuries a year ago and is significantly less talented now than last season, especially if aging stars Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan decline significantly. Because of that, they are likely to decline on that side of the ball, probably about as much as their offense can be expected to improve. The Saints could still win the weak NFC South by default, but they won’t be true contenders and they have a lot of cap problems long-term after keeping this aging core together for so long, and then splurging on Carr this off-season, even though he’s unlikely to move the needle under center. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in NFC South

Carolina Panthers 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 16, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

The Cam Newton era in Carolina was relatively successful, but it came to a premature end when Newton suffered multiple injuries during the 2018 and 2019 seasons and the Panthers have struggled as much as any team in the league at the quarterback position since then. Newton was first replaced by backup Kyle Allen, who struggled for most of his tenure as the starter in Newton’s absence in 2019.

Allen was then replaced in the off-season by veteran journeyman Teddy Bridgewater, who the Panthers gave a 3-year, 63 million dollar contract to, which ended in Bridgewater being paid 31 million for 15 mediocre starts and then getting traded to the Broncos the following off-season for minimal compensation. The Panthers then sent a 2nd round pick to the Jets for former #3 overall pick Sam Darnold for the 2021 season, but he proved to be a bust in a season in which the Panthers got so desperate at the quarterback position that they brought back a broken down Cam Newton for a second stint when Darnold got hurt, which did not go well.

Darnold returned for 2022 and the Panthers added former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield via trade and Matt Corral via the third round of the draft, but Darnold and Corral got injured in the preseason and Mayfield struggled mightily, leading to him being benched for PJ Walker, who wasn’t much better. Darnold eventually returned for the final six games of the season and wasn’t bad, with a 92.6 QB rating, but all in all, Panthers quarterbacks completed just 58.6% of their passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions on the year, good for a 80.2 QB rating, 6th worst in the NFL.

The Panthers could have brought Darnold back as a free agent and given him another shot based on the progress he showed down the stretch last season, but they opted to start over at the quarterback position this off-season and invested significant resources to do so, trading all the way up to the #1 pick in the draft to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, surrendering the 9th pick, 61st pick, first and second round picks next year, and top receiver DJ Moore.

Young has the upside to be worth that price if he can develop into a long-term franchise quarterback and, while he will likely have growing pains as a rookie even if he does develop into a long-term franchise quarterback, he still figures to be an immediate upgrade for one of the worst quarterbacked teams in the league over the past few years. The Panthers also brought in veteran Andy Dalton in free agency this off-season, to give them a stopgap option in case Young isn’t ready, leaving Matt Corral as the third quarterback and potential trade bait or cut candidate, after a lost rookie year due to injury.

Dalton has made 162 starts in 12 seasons in the league, with a 87.6 QB rating, including 95.2 in 14 starts last season, and he would be one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, but it seems likely that Young will beat him out for the starting job even as a rookie. Dalton is going into his age 36 season, so his best days are probably behind him, but if he had to play in place of an injured Bryce Young, the Panthers might not see a significant drop off at the position. This is a much improved quarterback room with the potential to be a lot more if Young can live up to the hype in year one.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

DJ Moore was a big loss in the trade for the #1 pick, as he led the team by a wide margin with a 63/888/7 slash line last season, while receiving a 73.9 PFF grade. To replace him, the Panthers added veterans Adam Thielen (3 years, 25 million) and DJ Chark (1 year, 5 million) in free agency and used their second round pick on Mississippi’s Jonathan Mingo. None of the players are likely to be as good as Moore would have been, but they do give the Panthers a lot more depth than a year ago, when the only other receiver with more than 300 receiving yards was Terrace Marshall, who was second on the team with a 28/49/1 slash line last season. Marshall, their top holdover, will compete for playing time and targets in this receiving corps with the veterans Thielen and Chark and the rookie Mingo.

Thielen’s salary suggests the Panthers view him as their top receiver and there was a time when he was a legitimate #1 receiver and one of the top wide receivers in the league, with slash lines of 91/1276/4 and 113/1373/9 in 2017 and 2018 respectively, but he hasn’t topped 1000 yards in a season since and now heads into his age 33 season, coming off of a 2022 season in which he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run. He’s at the age where wide receivers tend to decline quickly, so it would surprise me if he was able to bounce back in any sort of significant way in 2023, so he figures to be a little bit of a disappointment based on his salary.

Chark also is several seasons removed from a 1000 yard season, posting a 73/1008/8 slash line back in 2019, but for him the biggest reason why has been injuries, as he’s missed at least three games in each of the three seasons since then, with 22 games missed in total over those three seasons combined. Chark is still only going into his age 27 season and his 1.47 yards per route run average over the past three seasons isn’t much of a drop off from the 1.69 yards per route run he averaged in his 1000 yard season, so he should be the more effective of their two free agent wide receiver additions, despite his lower salary. Chark could miss more time with injury and Thielen still could lead the team in targets, but Chark should be at least the 1b wide receiver to Thielen’s 1A and I would expect him to be the more efficient and effective option of the two.

Mingo could also see significant action in his first season with the team, but Chark and Thielen are likely locked into roles in the Panthers top-3 wide receivers and Mingo will face competition from Terrace Marshall for the last spot, so Mingo could spend most of his rookie season as a reserve. If he sees significant action, he has the talent to make an impact in year one, but he will likely have at least some growing pains in his first NFL action.

Marshall was also a second round pick and he struggled mightily as a rookie in 2021, averaging just 0.50 yards per route run, leading to him spending the start of his second season in the league on the bench, but he earned a bigger role down the stretch and had a 22/429/1 slash line in his final 10 games (37/729/2 extrapolated over 17 games), with a 1.50 yards per route run average on the season, and, now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued improving and held off the rookie Mingo for a significant role in this offense.

The four aforementioned wide receivers figure to play most of the snaps barring injury, but the Panthers also have Laviska Shenault, who is a valuable reserve and situational player. Shenault was a second round pick by the Jaguars in 2020 and averaged 1.55 yards per route run and 1.36 yards per route run on slash lines of 58/600/5 and 63/619/0 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, decent production considering how dysfunction the Jaguars’ offense was overall in those two seasons, but Shenault was still replaced in Jacksonville and sent to the Panthers for a swap of late round picks last off-season.

Shenault didn’t play much in his first season in Carolina, playing 206 snaps total, and was mostly used in the screen game, with an average depth of target of -0.8 yards (down from 6.1 in his first two seasons in the league), but he played his role well, providing instant offense when he did play, averaging a very impressive 2.89 yards per route run and taking 32 targets for a 27/272/1 slash line, with 12.4 yards per catch average the catch. He also added 65 yards on 9 carries on the ground. He’ll remain a situational player in this offense in 2023, but he should be an effective one and, if forced into a bigger role by injury, he could still have some further untapped potential in a larger role, still only going into his age 25 season.

The Panthers also didn’t get much out of their tight ends in 2022, with none of their tight ends surpassing 200 yards receiving. The Panthers attempted to remedy the problem by signing ex-Bengal Hayden Hurst to a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal in free agency, but, while he should be an upgrade, it could mostly be by default and Hurst could easily prove to be an overpay. Hurst flashed potential early in his career, with a 1.57 yards per route run average in his first two seasons in the league, but that came as a part-time player and, since becoming a starter, he has averaged just 1.06 yards per route run over the past three seasons. He’s also finished below average on PFF in run blocking grade in all five seasons in the league, Now going into his age 30 season, Hurst isn’t the promising young tight end he used to be and I wouldn’t expect much different from the past few seasons for him in his new home in Carolina.

Hurst will be backed up by Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble, who were the Panthers top tight ends last season. They will compete for the #2 tight end job, but are unlikely to have significant roles in this offense. That’s a good thing, because both struggled mightily in significant roles last season. They played 558 snaps and 513 snaps respectively, but averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and 0.71 yards per route run, leading to slash lines of 21/197/0 and 19/174/3 respectively, while also struggling in run blocking. Overall, they were PFF’s two worst ranked eligible tight ends.

Those struggles are nothing new for either of them, as Thomas has averaged just 0.69 yards per route run since entering the league as a 4th round pick in 2018, while Tremble, a 2021 3rd round pick, has averaged 0.68 yards per route run in two seasons in the league. Tremble probably has more theoretical upside because he’s younger and was a relatively high draft pick, but it’s unlikely either player will contribute significantly to this offense. This receiving corps is a lot deeper than a year ago, but they lack a #1 wide receiver, now without DJ Moore.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with trading away DJ Moore this off-season, the Panthers also traded away another key offensive playmaker, feature back Christian McCaffrey, midway through the 2022 season. McCaffrey was still playing at a high level, despite two seasons mostly lost to injury prior to last season, but the 49ers offered a package of picks centered around 2023 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks and the Panthers were seemingly out of playoff contention at 1-5, so it made some sense for them to move on from a player whose contract paid him 37 million over the next three and a half seasons, a lot of money for an injury prone running back on a team likely going through a rebuild. Ultimately, it could prove to be the correct decision, in part because accumulating those extra picks from the McCaffrey trade made it easier for them to justify trading away future picks to move up to #1 in the draft.

On top of that, the Panthers’ offense actually improved without McCaffrey, leading to the team winning 6 of their final 11 games to finish at 7-10, within reach of the NFC South title. That’s not to say they were better because he was gone, but they didn’t really miss him that much, especially on the ground, where replacement lead back Dont’a Foreman averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 191 carries in 11 starts in McCaffrey’s absence, as opposed to 4.62 yards per carry on 85 carries in 6 starts for McCaffrey.

Despite Foreman’s success down the stretch last season, the Panthers let him leave as a free agent on just a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal from the Bears, opting instead to shop higher in the running back market, signing Miles Sanders to a 4-year, 25.4 million dollar deal. Foreman fared well last season, but Sanders could easily be an upgrade, after averaging 5.02 YPC on 739 carries in four seasons with the Eagles, who selected him in the second round in 2019.

Sanders benefited from probably the best run blocking in the league in Philadelphia, which he won’t have in Carolina, but he still played well in his own right, finishing above 70 on PFF in run grade in three straight seasons, including a 82.3 grade in 2022, when he had career highs with 1,269 yards (5th in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns on 259 carries (4.90 YPC). Still only in his age 26 season, Sanders should remain an above average runner in 2023, even if he’s not as efficient without the same blocking he had with the Eagles.

The biggest area where McCaffrey was missed was in the passing game, as he still led all Panthers running backs with a 33/277/1 slash line, despite only playing 6 games, while his 1.79 yards per route run average led all Panthers players with at least 40 targets. Chuba Hubbard wasn’t bad as a passing down option, with 1.55 yards per route run, but he lacked McCaffrey’s dynamic abilities as a playmaker. Hubbard only averaged 0.98 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, with just 3.56 yards per carry as well, but that jumped to 4.90 yards per carry in 2022 and he was a 4th round pick who entered the league with decent potential, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable change of pace and passing down option.

Sanders’ contract suggests that Hubbard won’t average the 11.3 touches per game he averaged behind Foreman last season in McCaffrey’s absence, but Sanders has struggled in the passing game in his career (0.88 yards per route run) and the Panthers don’t have another good choice on the roster for a passing down back, with the only other running backs on the roster being former undrafted free agents Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown, who have 32 career touches between the two of them, as well as some undrafted rookies. Sanders and Hubbard aren’t a bad running back duo, but their depth is a concern and they aren’t a great duo either.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Panthers bring back all five starting offensive linemen from a year ago, with one key caveat. While their starters didn’t miss a game due to injury on the offensive line a year ago, the Panthers already could be without starting right guard Austin Corbett for the start of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in week 18 of last season and, even if he can return for week one, it’s unlikely the Panthers will have the same injury luck as a year ago. That will test their depth, which is led by veteran Cam Erving.

Erving is versatile, with the ability to play anywhere on the offensive line, and he has 56 career starts in eight seasons in the league, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all eight seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2023, a strong likelihood for a player who will be the first man off the bench. The Panthers also added NC State’s Chandler Zavala in the 4th round of the draft, but he too would likely struggle if forced into a significant year one role.

Even if Corbett returns for week one, that’s no guarantee that he’ll be 100%, a significant concern, given that Corbett was PFF’s 18th ranked guard with a 69.1 grade in 17 starts last season. A 2nd round pick by the Browns in 2018, Corbett struggled to develop early in his career and was traded to the Rams after just one start in a season and a half, returning just a 5th round pick to Cleveland in return. However, he broke out with the Rams as a solid starter, with PFF grades of 51.7, 70.9, and 68.8 in 40 starts in two and a half seasons with the team, before the Panthers signed him to a 3-year, 26.25 million dollar deal last off-season. Only in his age 28 season, if he’s healthy he should remain an above average starter, but that’s a big if.

The Panthers’ offensive line was mostly solid last season, but the one weakness was left guard, where Brady Christensen finished with a 57.3 PFF grade, the only Panthers starter to finish below 60. Christensen was a 2nd round pick in 2021 though and he was better as a rookie with a 61.6 PFF grade, albeit in just six starts, and because of that, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, perhaps a big step forward.

While the Panthers didn’t have an offensive lineman miss time due to injury in 2022, that doesn’t mean they had the same five players start all 17 games, as center Pat Elflein was benched after week 7 for Bradley Bozeman. That proved to be a wise decision, as Bozeman was a noticeable upgrade, part of the reason for the Panthers’ offensive improvement down the stretch, and, as a result, the Panthers opted to re-sign him to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal this off-season, keeping him off the open market.

With Elflein no longer with the team, Bozeman is locked in as the starter, not a new role for him, as he started 48 of a possible 49 games in his final three seasons with the Ravens before joining the Panthers last off-season, first at guard in 2019 and 2020, where he was decent with 63.4 and 64.3 PFF grades, and then at center in 2021, where he took a step forward with a 73.6 PFF grade. Bozeman fell back down to 63.1 in 2022, but has proven himself as a reliable starter at the very least and he has also shown he has the upside to be more. Center looks like his best spot, but he also provides value with the versatility to kick to guard if needed. He was a smart re-signing on a reasonable contract for a team that needs stability on the offensive line.

Offensive tackle was the strength of this group a year ago and should be again this year, perhaps even more so. Their left tackle is Ikem Ekwonu, who they selected 6th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. His PFF grade of 65.3 as a rookie is decent, but it doesn’t tell the whole story, as he struggled early in the year, but had a grade of 70.1 from week 4 on, another part of the reason why this offense got better as the season went on. Highly talented, I would expect Ekwonu to at least continue that into his second season in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further.

On the other side, right tackle Taylor Moton had a 69.3 PFF grade, but that was actually a down year for him, as he finished with a grade of 76 or higher in four straight seasons prior to last season, while making all 65 possible starts in those four seasons. Moton is still only in his age 29 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential. The Panthers have depth problems on the offensive line and almost definitely won’t be as healthy in this unit as a year ago, especially with the right guard Austin Corbett already rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in January, but they could easily get better or continued better play from the young players on the left side of this line, Ekwonu and Christensen, they will have a full season of Bradley Bozeman at center, and they should get a better year out of right tackle Taylor Moton, so there are reasons to be optimistic about this group as well.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers’ struggles on offense got a lot of attention last season, with their rotating carousel of quarterbacks, but they weren’t much better on defense, ranking 27th in offensive DVOA and 25th in defensive DVOA. They had some standout players on defense, but a lack of supporting talent and depth cost them significantly. The edge defender position is a perfect example of this. Top edge defender Brian Burns was very productive, playing 951 snaps (3rd in the NFL among edge defenders) and totaling 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate. However, he struggled against the run and their other edge defenders did not get much pass rush, with their #2 and #3 edge defenders Yetur Gross-Matos (847 snaps) and Marquis Haynes (470 snaps) combining for just 7.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate, while also struggling against the run, leading to PFF grades of 51.2 and 59.3 respectively.

Burns returns as the top edge defender and, very much in the prime of his career in his age 25 season, he should give the Panthers more of the same. He has consistently struggled against the run throughout his 4-year career since being selected 16th overall in 2019, but he has more than made up for that with 38 sacks, 45 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 64 career games. Unfortunately, the Panthers will probably get more of the same from Haynes and Gross-Matos, who have career pressure rates of 7.7% and 6.6% respectively.

Gross-Matos went in the 2nd round in 2020 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he theoretically may have some untapped upside, but he’s far from a guarantee to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, while Haynes is now heading into his age 30 season and is likely to decline going forward if anything. The Panthers used a 3rd round pick on Oregon’s DJ Johnson and he could have an immediate role as at least a rotational reserve, but he might not have a big impact in his first year in the league, even if he has the upside to be a starter long-term. This is a top heavy position group where Brian Burns elevates the overall grade of the group, even with his consistent struggles against the run.

Grade: C+

Interior Defenders

The Panthers have a similar situation at the interior defender position with Derrick Brown leading the way, after posting a 84.4 PFF grade on 870 snaps on PFF last season, the 8th highest grade among interior defenders on the 6th most snaps. Brown only had one sack, but added 10 quarterback hits and a 7.8% pressure rate, while excelling against the run. Brown was much more middling in his first two seasons in the league in 2020 and 2021, with PFF grades of 61.0 and 64.4 respectively on snap counts of 742 and 631 respectively, but the former 7th overall pick has always had the upside to be one of the better players in the league at his position and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued his high level of play into 2023 and beyond, still only entering his age 25 season.

Brown will be needed more than ever this year, as the Panthers are actually even worse at this position behind Brown than they were last year, losing Matt Ioannidis in free agency, a big loss because he played 640 snaps and received a 66.4 PFF grade, holding up against the run and especially playing well as an interior pass rusher, with a 9.8% pressure rate. The Panthers signed ex-Saint Shy Tuttle to a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal in free agency and he should be an upgrade over Ioannidis against the run, finishing 67 or higher in PFF run grade in all four seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he is a big downgrade from Ioannidis as a pass rusher (4.1% career pressure rate) and he has only played an average of 429 snaps per season as mostly a base package player, with a career high of 557 snaps in a season. He should give the Panthers more of the same that he gave the Saints.

The Panthers also brought in veteran Deshawn Williams in free agency to give them a situational sub package interior pass rusher, a role in which he’s served throughout his career, but he’s been pretty underwhelming in that role, with a 6.5% career pressure rate, and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so he’s a mediocre option. The Panthers also still have top reserve holdover Bravvion Roy and he figures continue having a rotational role, but the 2020 6th round pick has finished below 55 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 353 snaps per season, especially struggling as a pass rusher with a 4.3% career pressure rate. Derrick Brown elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, but there isn’t much else to like here, aside from above average base package run defense from Shy Tuttle.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Panthers’ linebacking corps was a strength last season and should remain one in 2023. Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu were every down players, playing 1,098 snaps and 941 snaps respectively, and they finished 23rd and 17th among linebackers on PFF, with grades of 72.3 and 74.8 respectively. For Thompson, it was his 7th season above 60 in his 8-year career and his 4th season over 70. The 2015 1st round pick was kind of buried on the depth chart early in his career in what was then a very talented position group, but he always showed potential in limited action and since then he has started 59 of the 61 games he’s played over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Luvu, on the other hand, wasn’t drafted at all in 2018 and spent his first three seasons in the league showing very little on a total of 769 snaps with the Jets, who let him go following the 2020 season. However, he showed a lot of potential in his first season in Carolina in 2021, only playing 249 snaps, but posting a 84.8 grade on PFF, excelling as a run defender and a pass rusher (15.5% pressure rate) and holding his own in coverage as well, and he was able to continue that into a much bigger role in 2022 (15.8% pressure rate).

Luvu’s coverage ability isn’t great, but it’s serviceable and he makes up for it with his pass rush ability, both as a blitzer and an edge defender, very valuable for a team with issues at that position. In fact, his 7 sacks were 2nd on the team last season, despite only rushing the passer on 26.0% of his pass defense snaps. He’s still only going into his age 27 season, so, while he’s only a one-year starter, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he at least came close to matching last season’s performance in his second season as a starter in 2023.

The concern in this group is depth, with top reserves Cory Littleton (372 snaps) and Damien Wilson (204 snaps) no longer with the team. Wilson was mediocre with a 57.1 PFF grade, but Littleton played well, with a 72.2 grade, and the Panthers didn’t do much to replenish depth aside from signing veteran journeyman Kamu Grugier-Hill, primarily a special teamer who has been mediocre on an average of 303 defensive snaps per season in seven seasons in the league. He will compete for a reserve role with 2022 4th round pick Brandon Smith, who struggled mightily on 52 rookie year snaps, but who theoretically has untapped upside. Thompson and Luvu are an above average every down duo, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade at least somewhat.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The secondary was probably the Panthers’ biggest weakness on defense last season. Of the seven players who saw at least 300 snaps for them in the secondary last year, only two finished below 60 on PFF, with only one just barely over 70, with top cornerback Jaycee Horn finishing at 71.4. The Panthers didn’t do much to rectify the situation this off-season, but they did sign Vonn Bell from the Bengals on a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal. He figures to play a significant role at safety this season, alongside Xavier Woods, their other defensive back over 60 on PFF last season (63.5), and Jeremy Chinn, a versatile player who they are hoping can bounce back from an injury plagued 2022.

Bell has made 93 starts in 109 games in seven seasons in the league since being selected in the second round in 2016 by the Saints and he has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, with three seasons over 70 (2018, 2020, 2021). He’s at his best against the run, with 4 seasons above 78 on PFF in his career, but he holds up in coverage as well, with coverage grades above 60 from PFF in five of the past six seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Bell in 2023. He figures to be locked into a starting job, based on his salary and his history of reliable starting experience.

Woods also has a lot of reliable starting experience, with 80 starts in 92 games in six seasons in the league and six straight seasons above 60 on PFF, including three over 70. However, the 3-year, 15 million dollar contract he signed with the Panthers last off-season is less than what Vonn Bell signed for this off-season and the Panthers still like Jeremy Chinn despite his down 2022 season, so Woods could be the odd man out of a starting job, at least in base packages. In sub packages, the Panthers will likely still play a lot of three safety sets again like they did last season, when hybrid safety/cornerback Myles Hartsfield struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 812 snaps, so Woods should still have a significant role in this secondary even if he’s not a starter. He should be an obvious upgrade as the #3 safety over Hartsfield, who is no longer on the team.

It will probably be Chinn who plays the nickel cornerback spot in sub packages when the Panthers play three safeties, as he’s a proven versatile player who has shown he can line up in a bunch of different spots. He finished with a 54.9 PFF grade last season and was part of the problem in this secondary, but he wasn’t really healthy for most of the season with a hamstring injury that cost him six games and limited him in numerous others. Chinn was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received a 71.4 PFF grade on 1,015 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021, after a 59.0 on 967 snaps as a rookie in 2020, and, still only in his age 25 season, he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, which would be a big boost to this secondary.

The Panthers will need their safety depth to help cover for their lack of cornerback depth, because they did nothing to improve this group this off-season. They should get starting cornerback Donte Jackson back from injury, but it might not be in week 1, after he suffered an achilles tear in week 10 of last season and, even if he is back for week 1, he might not be at 100% right away. He’s also been a pretty inconsistent player even when healthy in his career, finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including last season (55.0), while maxing out at 70.4 back in 2020. When healthy is also a big qualifier with him, as he has missed 18 games in four seasons in the league and was injury prone even before his recent achilles tear. He has a good chance to struggle even when on the field this season.

CJ Henderson started in Jackson’s absence last season and would likely continue doing so if needed in 2023, but he had a 52.9 PFF grade on 765 snaps last season and would likely continue struggling if forced into significant action. Henderson was the 9th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Jaguars, but he was sent to the Panthers for a third round pick after just one season and that proved to be a good move for the Jaguars, as Henderson hasn’t posted a season long grade higher than the 57.9 he posted as a rookie in 2020.

Henderson still has theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but he looks on his way to being a bust and would probably continue struggling in a starting role. If Jackson is healthy, expect Henderson to be a reserve and essentially the 4th cornerback, given the Panthers’ safety depth. The Panthers also still have Keith Taylor, who played 378 snaps last season, mostly down the stretch after Jackson’s injury. Taylor was a 5th round pick in 2021, but struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade last season, after struggling with a 52.8 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, so he’s best off as a deep reserve.

Jaycee Horn remains as the top cornerback. The 8th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, last season was the first healthy season of his career, after injuries limited him to just 142 rookie season snaps, but he flashed potential even in very limited action as a rookie and, still only going into his age 23 season, he could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023. Even if Horn doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a solid, above average starting cornerback and the Panthers’ #1 cornerback by default. He elevates a position group that will be better with the addition of Vonn Bell and the likely return to form of Jeremy Chinn, but that still has significant concerns, especially at the cornerback position.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Panthers are significantly better at quarterback with the addition of Bryce Young, even with Young being a rookie, but they have a long way to go to become a playoff caliber team, finishing last season 28th in DVOA and losing top wide receiver DJ Moore via trade. The Panthers did make some additions this off-season and don’t have a terrible roster, but if they make the post-season it will only be because they won their weak division and they figure to not be competitive in the post-season if they happen to make it. Even in a weak division, I would not make them the favorites. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 13, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Buccaneers’ franchise changed when they shockingly signed Tom Brady away from the Patriots in free agency, ending Brady’s legendary two decade long run in New England. It was a risky move because of Brady’s age (going into his age 43 season at that point), but the Buccaneers felt their up and coming roster was legitimately a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl and that if Brady continued holding off father time, he could be that quarterback to take them all the way, as he did six times prior with the Patriots. The gamble paid off immediately, as Brady led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory in just his first season with the team in 2020.

With Brady aging, the Buccaneers got aggressive to keep their limited Super Bowl window open, borrowing significant amounts of future cap space in order to bring back every starter on offense and defense from their Super Bowl team, despite several key players hitting free agency. The Buccaneers didn’t return to the Super Bowl the following season, but were one of the best teams in the league in the regular season with a 13-4 record and, considering they barely lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the post-season, they legitimately could have been a couple plays away from being the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in two decades.

The Buccaneers weren’t quite able to repeat the feat and bring back everyone the following off-season, but they still entered the 2022 season with much of their 2020 core intact. However, the result was not what they wanted. The few players they allowed to leave were badly missed, they were one of the most injury plagued teams in the season, with the 5th most adjusted games lost in the league, and Tom Brady finally started to show signs of his age in what was his age 45 season in 2022, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 6.40 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, his 3rd lowest QB rating (90.7) in the previous 14 seasons and the lowest YPA average since his second season as the Patriots starter in 2002.

The Buccaneers still won the NFC South, but only by default as their 8-9 record was good enough in the league’s worst division, and they didn’t put up much of a fight in the post-season, losing at home to the Cowboys in the first round by a final score of 31-14. That game ended up being the final one of Brady’s illustrious career. Brady was set to be a free agent this off-season and likely could have kept playing if he wanted to, either back in Tampa Bay or with another team he signed with as a free agent, but he likely rightfully saw Tampa Bay as a team in decline and didn’t feel like any of his other potential destinations gave him a realistic chance to win another Super Bowl in what would have been his age 46 season, after a disappointing season in Tampa Bay, so, rather than risking injury for another year, he opted to call it quits.

The Buccaneers could have copied the strategy their division rival Saints followed after Drew Brees’ retirement two years ago, continue being aggressive with the cap in order to maintain respectability in the short-term, even if there’s no real chance of winning a Super Bowl, rather than going through a proper rebuild, but, instead the Buccaneers are letting the rebuild happen, which should prove to be the correct decision. After ranking 2nd and 9th in average annual salary of their roster in the previous two seasons respectively, the Buccaneers now rank just 26th and, while average annual value correlates heavily with winning percentage and the short-term result will likely be ugly, in the long run, their strategy will almost definitely get them back into legitimate contention faster, as the Buccaneers currently have 17 million in cap space for 2024, while the Saints have negative 77 million, after years of borrowing future cap space.

The Buccaneers are also much more likely than the Saints to be in position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects in next year’s draft. Rather than shelling out top money for a middling quarterback like the Saints did by giving 150 million over 4 years to Derek Carr, the Buccaneers took a less expensive approach at the quarterback position, signing journeyman Baker Mayfield to an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal to compete with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who the Buccaneers originally drafted to be a potential successor to Brady. Both quarterbacks at least have upside and could potentially prove to be a long-term starting quarterback for this team, but, even if they don’t, the result is likely to be the Buccaneers having one of the worst records in the league and ending up with a high draft pick as a result.

Trask’s draft position normally would suggest he’s the favorite, but he’s thrown just nine unimpressive regular season passes behind Brady the past two seasons and it doesn’t sound like his progress behind the scenes has been great either, so Mayfield is actually the likely favorite for the job. Mayfield was once the #1 overall pick, back in 2018, and his overall performance in four seasons with the Browns wasn’t bad, as he made 59 starts, while completing 61.6% of his passes for an average of 7.34 YPA, 92 touchdowns, and 56 interceptions, but the Browns felt he benefited significantly from his supporting cast and didn’t move the needle by himself, so they traded for Deshaun Watson and salary dumped Mayfield on the Panthers last off-season.

In Carolina, Mayfield proved to be a disaster, completing 57.8% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in six starts, leading to him being benched and eventually cut by a Panthers team with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. However, he was better after being signed mid-season by the Rams, making four starts in place of the injured Matt Stafford and completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a very mediocre supporting cast.

Mayfield won’t get a ton of help from his supporting cast in Tampa Bay, but he finished higher than 70 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league and, only going into his age 28 season, he has some bounce back potential and I think he has a better chance of reaching that potential than the raw, inexperienced Trask. This will be a quarterback battle for much of training camp and into the pre-season, but I would expect Mayfield to be the better quarterback and win the job. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Buccaneers started both quarterbacks at points this season, especially if they fall out of contention with Mayfield and want to at least get a look at the young Trask. This is an underwhelming quarterback room compared to most of the league, but both starting options at least have upside.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Tom Brady’s relative struggles last season were part of the reason why the Buccaneers’ offense disappointed, but Brady still played pretty well, finishing the season 10th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 79.7 grade, more than they can expect out of either of their quarterbacks this season, so Brady wasn’t the biggest problem on this offense. The bigger problem was their lack of a running game. Not only did the Buccaneers struggle to run the ball, ranking dead last in the NFL with a 3.39 YPC average (the 2nd worst team was at 3.71), but they didn’t even really try to run the ball, with the fewest team carries on the season (386) and the most team pass attempts by a wide margin (751, 100+ more than all but five teams), which put a lot of pressure on an aging Brady to make this offense go.

Run blocking was part of the problem (25th on PFF in team run blocking grade) and I’ll get into the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles later, but the running backs themselves were also a problem, with their top-2 running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White ranking 50th and 53rd respectively out of 60 eligible running backs in run grade, while averaging 3.53 YPC and 3.73 YPC on 189 carries and 129 carries respectively. The Buccaneers also didn’t really do anything to improve this running back group significantly this off-season, aside from signing fellow veteran Chase Edmonds to replace Fournette, so they will be counting on White taking a big step forward in his second year in the league in 2023. He was a third round pick and came into the league with a good amount of upside, but he’ll need to improve significantly in year two to even be an average lead back option.

White probably won’t have any choice but to be the lead back though, as Edmonds has never been more than a change of pace back, with 401 carries in five seasons in the league and a career high of 116. Edmonds at least has a career 4.48 YPC average, but most of his carries have come in passing situations when it is easier to run, so that’s a bit misleading and, even if he can continue having a solid average in Tampa Bay, it will almost definitely only be as a change of pace back. The Buccaneers also used a 3rd round pick in 2020 on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, but he’s shown very little in three years in the league, leading to him receiving just 91 career touches. He’ll probably have a bigger role by default this season, but I don’t see him having a big impact.

With a very pass heavy gameplan last season, the Buccaneers tried to compensate for their lack of a running game by throwing frequently to their running backs, with Fournette and White receiving 83 targets and 58 targets respectively, but they averaged just 6.30 yards per target and 5.00 yards per target respectively, so that wasn’t an effective way to move the ball last season. In 2023, the Buccaneers will have to be more balanced, unable to put the entire burden of moving the offense on Tom Brady anymore, but they still figure to use their running backs heavily in the passing game.

White figures to see a significant uptick in carries as the lead back on what should be a more balanced team in 2023, but he also figures to still maintain a significant passing down role. Edmonds will also contribute in passing situations, which he’s decent in, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in his career, up slightly from the 1.13 White averaged last season. Vaughn could also see some passing down work as that was considered a strength of his entering the league, but he has just 79 career receiving yards on 22 career targets, so he probably won’t be a useful contributor in that aspect either. This is an underwhelming backfield overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned the Buccaneers’ run blocking struggles earlier. They were better in pass protection, leading to Brady remarkably only being sacked 22 times on 758 dropbacks, but a lot of that had to do with Brady himself, as Brady’s 2.30 second average time in the pocket was fastest in the league by a significant margin, with 2nd ranked Cooper Rush (2.44) actually being closer to the 10th ranked quarterback than he was to Brady, and having to get rid of the ball so quickly led to their offense frequently not being in rhythm. Unsurprisingly, Brady saw a significant increase in yards per attempt (7.00) when he had more than 2.5 seconds to throw, as opposed to 6.11 when he threw it in less than 2.5 seconds.

The Buccaneers lost center Ryan Jensen to injury, left guard Ali Marpet to retirement, and right guard Alex Cappa to free agency last off-season, so the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles weren’t too surprising, but things got worse when left tackle Donovan Smith suffered an injury and replacement right guard Shaq Mason struggled by his standards. To save money with both players going into their age 30 seasons, the Buccaneers moved on from Smith and Mason this off-season, leaving them with just two starters remaining from their Super Bowl offensive line, one of whom, Jensen, is coming off of a lost season due to injury.

Despite not having a lot of flexibility, the Buccaneers did a good job finding some decent replacements this off-season, signing veteran Matt Feiler and using a second round pick on North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch. Mauch figures to start right away at right guard and, though he could have growing pains in year one, he profiles as a future above average starter, while Feiler is a versatile player who could start at either left guard or right tackle, depending on where the Buccaneers want to play Luke Goedeke, a second round pick a year ago.

Goedeke struggled in 7 starts at left guard and 1 start at right tackle as a rookie (43.7 overall PFF grade), but he still has the upside to be significantly improved in year two. The Buccaneers also have 2021 3rd round pick Robert Hainsey, who filled in admirably at center with a 66.7 PFF grade in 17 starts in the first significant action of his career last season and who will now likely serve as useful, versatile depth on the interior, while mediocre career backup Justin Skule (12 starts in 4 seasons in the league) provides depth at tackle.

Feiler’s age is a concern, going into his age 31 season, especially since he finished last season with a career worst 53.3 PFF grade, but he had finished above 65 in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (55 starts total over that span), with three seasons over 70, so even if his best days are behind him, he could still have some bounce back potential in 2023 and could have a better year than he had in 2022. It’s possible he could keep declining, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and a capable season from him is definitely not out of the question.

Age is a concern for Jensen as well, especially after an injury cost him his entire 2022 season. Jensen has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons as a starter in his career, making all 81 starts in those 5 seasons, with a pair of seasons in the 70s on PFF, but his last season over 70 was back in 2019 and it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point, even if he manages to hold up as a solid starter for another season. A noticeable decline is certainly a possibility for him, which would likely make center a position of weakness on this offense.

With the Buccaneers’ other offensive line options either being young and inexperienced or over 30 and likely on the decline, it’s good they still have Tristan Wirfs, who has probably been their best offensive lineman over the past few seasons, even when this used to be a much better offensive line. Wirfs is only going into his age 24 season, but the 2020 13th overall pick has already developed into one of the best offensive tackles in the league, ranking 12th, 6th, and 6th among offensive tackles on PFF in three seasons in the league respectively, with overall grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 respectively. Wirfs will be moving to the left side in 2023 for the first time with Donovan Smith gone and it’s possible he’s not as good on the left side as he is on the right, but I don’t expect a significant drop off and he should be one of the better left tackles in the league in 2023. His presence should significantly benefit an offensive line that otherwise figures to be a liability again this season.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Buccaneers’ receiving corps were supposed to be a strength going into last season, but even this group disappointed in 2022. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had impressive slash lines of 77/1124/6 and 104/1023/3 respectively, the third season in four years in which both have surpassed 1,000 yards, with Godwin’s injury plagued 2020 season being the only exception. However, even they weren’t as good as they normally are, with Godwin averaging 1.76 yards per route run, down from 1.97 for his career, and posting a 75.1 PFF grade, worst in six seasons in the league, while Evans averaged 1.81 yards per route run, down from 2.03 for his career, and posting a 74.0 PFF grade, second worst of his 9-year career.

For Godwin, injury was probably part of the problem, as he didn’t look quite 100% in his first year back from a torn ACL and, going into his age 27 season, he has plenty of bounce back potential, even with an obvious downgrade under center. For Evans, the slight decline is more concerning, as he now heads into his age 30 season, with his last season over 80 on PFF and over 2 yards per route run coming back in 2019. Evans was still the more effective of the two options in 2022, averaging 8.85 yards per target, as opposed to 7.20 for Godwin, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Evans declined a little bit in 2023 and a healthier Godwin became their more effective pass catcher going forward. Evans and Godwin are still one of the better wide receiver duos in the league, but they’re probably not as good as they were 2-3 years ago.

Aside from Evans and Godwin, the rest of this receiving corps was a big problem in 2022. I already mentioned all of the inefficient targets to running backs, but the Buccaneers also targeted tight ends frequently in the passing game in 2022 with little success, with 118 targets to Cade Otton (65 targets), Cameron Brate (38 targets), Ko Kieft (10), and Kyle Rudolph (5 targets) resulting in 5.70 yards per attempt, as the Buccaneers badly missed Rob Gronkowski, who retired the previous off-season.

Brate and Rudolph are gone, leaving Otton and Kieft, 4th and 6th round rookie last season, atop the depth chart, along with Payne Durham, a 5th round rookie out of Purdue this season. Kieft did average a decent 1.25 yards per route run last season, but in very limited action, while Otton averaged just 0.84 yards per route run. Both have upside and could be better in year two, but this is a very underwhelming tight end depth chart, without any proven veteran options or high draft picks in the group.

Russell Gage was also mediocre last season as the third receiver, averaging just 1.15 yards per route run and finishing with a 51/426/5 slash line. He’s been better in the past, averaging 1.71 yards per route run between 2020 and 2021 and, only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential, but I wouldn’t expect him to be any better than a solid #3 receiver. He’ll be locked into that role because the Buccaneers have basically no depth behind him on the depth chart, with no reserve options with any experience and 6th round rookie Trey Palmer being the only reserve option who was even drafted, with the rest of the depth chart filled out by first and second year undrafted free agents who have never caught a pass in the NFL. Evans and Godwin are a very talented wide receiver duo, but this is a very top heavy group.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Buccaneers lost a trio of interior defenders this off-season who played significant snaps for them in 2022, with Rakeem Nunez-Roches (548 snaps), William Gholston (494 snaps), and Akiem Hicks (398 snaps) all no longer with the team. To replace them, the Buccaneers used their first round pick on Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey, they signed veteran Greg Gaines in free agency, and they will likely give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick Logan Hall, who played 403 snaps as a rookie. Hall struggled as a rookie, finishing 133rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders with a 35.3 PFF grade, but he still has the upside to develop into a useful contributor long-term and could easily take a step forward in year two. Hall’s improvement could be mostly by default though, so he still should be a reserve, behind Kancey, Gaines, and top holdover Vita Vea.

Gaines was an under-the-radar signing, but he could prove to be a good value on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. A 4th round pick in 2019, Gaines flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league on snap counts of 183 and 201, before breaking out as a solid starter in his first season in that role in 2021, posting a 67.9 PFF grade across 780 snaps, holding up against the run and adding 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His play dropped off in 2022 though, as he had just a 59.1 PFF grade across 731 snaps, struggling somewhat against the run, and totaling just 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 3.5% pressure rate, leading to his underwhelming free agent market. He’s not a sure thing to bounce back, but he’s only in his age 27 season and he was a smart, cheap signing for a team without much financial flexibility this off-season.

Vea probably has the most upside of the bunch, even with Kancey being added in the first round. Vea was a first round pick as well, selected 12th overall back in 2018, and he’s proven to be worth the pick, mostly playing the run well, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 18 sacks, 28 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 64 games in five seasons in the league. Vea fell below 70 on PFF for a season for the first time in his career in 2022, but that was because his run defense fell off significantly and he still was an effective interior pass rusher, with 6.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, there is a good chance Vea’s run defense bounces back in 2023. He’s the best player in a position group that looks pretty solid, despite some off-season losses.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Unlike at the interior defender position, the Buccaneers bring back all of their key contributors at the edge defender position from a year ago and they should be better than a year ago, with top edge defender Shaq Barrett returning from injury and Louisville’s Yaya Diaby added in the 3rd round of the draft. Barrett tore his achilles in week 8 of last season and might not be 100% for the start of the year, but the Buccaneers should get more out of him than last season, when he was limited to 382 snaps on the season.

Barrett finished 70 or higher on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons of 80 or higher, most recently with a 82.9 grade in 2021. Barrett did fall to 68.3 before last year’s injury and the combination of his recent injury and his age (age 31 season) could mean his best days are behind him and, at the very least, he could struggle to bounce back to his top form in his first year back. Still, having him back, even for just most of the season at close to full strength, will be a boost for this position group.

The Buccaneers also re-signed Anthony Nelson, who replaced Barrett last season, bringing the 2019 4th round pick back on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Nelson wasn’t bad in Barrett’s absence last season (63.6 PFF grade on 632 snaps) and he flashed earlier in his career as a reserve on snap counts of 152, 324 and 359 in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively, especially excelling against the run, so he should be a useful reserve rotational option for them and at a reasonable price. He’ll compete with Diaby for reserve snaps and should beat the rookie out for the #3 edge defender job.

The return of Barrett and the addition of Diaby should take some of the pressure off of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, whose 843 snaps played ranked 14th in the league among edge defenders last season. Tryon-Shoyinka wasn’t bad last season, posting a 67.1 overall grade and totaling 4 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate, but he could be more effective if given more frequent rest, which he should get this season. That could lead to the 2021 first round pick taking a big step forward in year three in 2023. This is not a bad position group and it’s one that should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Buccaneers somewhat surprisingly kept every down linebacker Lavonte David on a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Going into his age 33 season, David doesn’t seem to fit the rebuilding Buccaneers’ timeline, but he’s a veteran leader that doesn’t break the bank and, despite his age, he hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet, posting a 84.1 PFF grade last season on 1,074 snaps that ranked 3rd among off ball linebackers on PFF, the 5th season over 80 in his 11-year career and his 6th straight season over 75. A talented run and pass defender, David’s every down abilities have led to him playing 65.8 snaps per game in 166 games in 11 seasons in the league, since being selected by the Buccaneers in the 2nd round in 2012. He may start to decline in 2023, but, even at less than his best, he should remain an above average every down option and at a very cheap price.

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly might end up moving on from young every down linebacker Devin White, who has requested a trade ahead of the final year of his contract. The Buccaneers are publicly against trading White, but they also don’t seem to want to pay him what he wants and ultimately may end up moving him rather than risk losing him for nothing if they don’t think they can get him signed and if they get a good trade offer.

Losing White actually wouldn’t be a big loss for the Buccaneers, as he has finished below average on PFF in both pass coverage and run defense grade in all four seasons in the league since being selected by the Buccaneers 5th overall in 2019. He gets attention for his pass rush ability and he does have a 23.5% pressure rate for his career as a blitzer, with 20.5 sacks and 35 hits, but he only blitzes on 12.8% of his snaps and he has been a liability most of the rest of the time. I would expect that to continue in 2023 if he remains on the roster.

The Buccaneers don’t have great depth at the position though. They added Pittsburgh’s SirVocea Dennis in the 5th round of the draft, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. KJ Britt was added in the 5th round in 2021, but he’s played just 74 snaps in two seasons in the league and has mostly struggled. Unless White stays and takes a big step forward in coverage and against the run, the Buccaneers are likely to have a liability at one linebacker spot in both of those aspects, so, even if White is a good blitzer, the Buccaneers will still need the aging Lavonte David to not decline significantly and continue carrying this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly re-signed starting cornerback Jamel Dean. They had to shell out a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal to do so, but Dean is only going into his age 27 season and he could easily prove to be a great value on that contract. He’s posted grades of 74.5 or higher on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, but durability has been a concern, as he’s missed at least two games due to injury in all four seasons, averaging 633 snaps per season with 38 starts in 57 games in his career, which probably hurt his free agent market. He could easily miss more time this season, but, even if he does, he should remain an above average starter for this team when on field.

Dean being re-signed locks the Buccaneers’ starting cornerbacks in long-term, with fellow young cornerback Carlton Davis being kept on a 3-year, 44.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Davis has his own durability concerns, also missing at least two games per season in his career, with 18 games missed in five seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018, and he hasn’t been quite as effective as Dean, but he has still finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, with three seasons over 65, maxing out at 70.4 in 2019. Only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, although that unfortunately could mean more injuries.

The Buccaneers couldn’t retain all of their cornerbacks though, losing #3 cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to the Titans on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting missed 8 games with injury last season, but finished with a 76.6 PFF grade on 430 snaps and the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him this off-season, outside of using a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Josh Hayes, who is unlikely to contribute in a significant way in year one.

Dee Delaney is penciled in as the #3 cornerback, but the 216 snaps he played last season were a career high for the 2018 undrafted free agent and, though he had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, he also struggled with a 54.9 grade on 213 snaps in 2021 in the only other somewhat significant action of his career. He hasn’t proven himself enough to be an obvious candidate for the #3 cornerback job, except for the Buccaneers might not have a better choice. The only other option on the roster who has played an NFL snap is Zyon McCollum, a 2022 5th round pick who struggled mightily on 278 rookie year snaps. The Buccaneers have an above average starting duo at cornerback, but they both are injury prone and depth is a big concern, especially since a #3 cornerback plays close to every snap in today’s NFL.

The Buccaneers also don’t have the safety depth that they had last season to help mask their lack of cornerback depth. Antoine Winfield (764 snaps), Mike Edwards (814 snaps), Keanu Neal (580 snaps), and Logan Ryan (445 snaps) all played significant snaps at safety last season as the Buccaneers frequently used three safeties together in obvious sub packages, but the latter three are no longer with the team. Ryan was the only one of the three to finish above 60 on PFF and he played the least, posting a 69.1 grade in 9 games in an injury plagued season, but without them the Buccaneers don’t have a reserve safety option on the roster with any NFL experience and they didn’t use a single draft pick on the position either.

Fortunately, they did add at least a good starting option in Ryan Neal, who should form an above average starting duo with holdover Antoine Winfield, who was the best of the bunch last season with a 77.8 PFF grade. That’s nothing new for the 2020 2nd round pick, who also had a 86.1 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2021, after a 67.1 grade as a rookie in 2020. In total, he started all 42 games he’s played in his career, missing 8 games total in three seasons, and he is just entering his prime in his age 25 season. He could easily be even better in 2023 than he was in 2022, especially since he missed four games with injury last season.

Ryan Neal, meanwhile, had a 85.6 PFF grade last season, essentially out of nowhere, as the 2018 undrafted free agent posted grades of 57.6 and 59.6 on 393 snaps and 434 snaps in 2020 and 2021 respectively in the only other defensive action in his career. Neal still only played 713 snaps last season as a reserve option who entered the lineup mid-season and he was greeted with a cold free agency market, limiting him to a 1-year deal with the Buccaneers worth just 1.2325 million, but he has a very good chance to be a steal at that price and at least be a solid starter, with the upside for more, even if he is pretty unproven. Neal and Winfield are an above average starting duo, as are Dean and Davis, but their lack of depth and sub package options at both positions is a problem and hurts their overall grade in this position group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers will definitely be worse on offense this season without Tom Brady, who actually played pretty well to carry this offense to a middling finish (16th in offensive DVOA) last season, and they still have the same problems with their running backs, offensive line, and receiving corps depth that they had last season, this time with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league as well. However, this team might not bottom out like some are expecting, as they actually still have a pretty solid defense.

They ranked 13th in defensive DVOA last season and, while they didn’t bring back everyone from last year’s unit, they did a good job adding cheap replacements in free agency and they still have several above average starters on that side of the ball, including Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and Vita Vea, the latter two of whom should give the Buccaneers more than they did a year ago, with Barrett returning from a season ending injury and Vea coming off of a career worst run grade from PFF. This is likely to be a below average team, but they should win at least a few games, especially with a weak schedule, and I wouldn’t rule out them winning the miserable NFC South again, based purely on how bad the rest of the division. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

Midway through the 2022 season, the Jaguars sat at just 2-6 and, at first glance, it seemed like more of the same for a team that had received back-to-back #1 overall picks following 1-15 and 3-14 finishes in the prior two seasons. However, the Jaguars played better than their record suggested to start the season, with all of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer and their two wins coming by a combined 52 points, giving them a +14 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 16th in the NFL, suggesting they would have significantly more success in the win/loss column going forward.

Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened for the Jaguars and then some, as they went 7-2 the rest of the way, winning their final five regular season games, to give them a final record of 9-8, good enough for first place in the AFC South. Part of it is the Jaguars started playing better, but their final DVOA rank, 13th, wasn’t much better than where they were when they were 2-6. The bigger difference is they started winning close games, going 4-0 in one-score games down the stretch after starting 0-6.

It’s easy to say the Jaguars are a young team that has turned a corner and will continue winning games at the rate they did in the second half last season, but that’s unlikely for two reasons. One, that would likely require them continuing to win an unsustainably high percentage of their close games; just like their 0-6 record in one-score games to start last season was unlikely to continue, the same is true of their 4-0 record in one-score games down the stretch. Two, the Jaguars are unlikely to continue having as few injuries as they had last season, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league.

Working in the Jaguars favor, however, is the fact that young quarterback Trevor Lawrence legitimately did seem to turn a corner midway through last season. The #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, billed as a can’t miss prospect and one of the best prospects of the decade, Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, in part due to coaching, completing just 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.

He was better to start the 2022 season, but his production was still mediocre, completing 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions through the first 8 games of last season. However, over the final 9 games of the season, that jumped to 69.7% completion, 7.40 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That led to Lawrence finishing 13th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 77.4 grade, including a 90.3 grade from week 9 on, making him the 3rd highest ranked quarterback over that stretch.

It’s a small sample size and Lawrence might not be quite that effective in 2023, but he has all the talent in the world and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued playing like one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he doesn’t play as well this season as he did down the stretch last season, he should still have a better season overall than a year ago because he’s unlikely to struggle again to begin the season.

The Jaguars also have a decent backup quarterback in CJ Beathard, who has completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (80.3 QB rating) in 12 career starts in six seasons in the league. The Jaguars would obviously be in trouble if Beathard had to start for an extended period of time because he’s a clear downgrade from Lawrence, but he’s good enough that he can make a couple spot starts without the season getting away from the Jaguars.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Another reason to be optimistic about the Jaguars in 2023, even if they don’t win games at the same rate as they did down the stretch last season, is the return of wide receiver Calvin Ridley from suspension. The Jaguars didn’t have a lot of financial flexibility this off-season after spending sprees during the previous two free agencies, but they didn’t have a lot of off-season losses either and they will get an obvious upgrade with Ridley returning to replace free agent departure Marvin Jones. While Jones averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and is more of a #3 receiver, Ridley has the potential to be a true #1 wide receiver for this team.

Whether Ridley meets that potential or not remains to be seen though. Ridley is only in his age 29 season and the 90/1374/9 slash line he had in 2020 seems like a #1 receiver, but he did that in Atlanta opposite a true #1 wide receiver in Julio Jones, rarely if ever facing any double coverage as a result, and that remains the only 1000+ yard season of his career. Ridley got the chance to be the #1 in Jones’ absence in 2021, but was limited to a 31/281/2 slash line in five games before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons and he then missed all of 2022 with suspension, leading to the Falcons sending him to Jacksonville.

Even if Ridley is not a true #1 wide receiver, he should still make a positive impact for the Jaguars and he won’t need to be a true #1, with the Jaguars also having Christian Kirk, who had a 84/1108/8 slash line as the #1 receiver a year ago. It was the first 1000+ yard year of Kirk’s career, but he came close with a 77/982/5 slash line in his final year in Arizona in 2021 and actually averaged more yards per route run (1.81) that season than he did in his first season in Jacksonville in 2022 (1.79).

Kirk also had a similar PFF grade in 2021 (72.7) as he did in 2022 (74.2) and he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so could easily continue playing around the same level. He might not receive as many targets as he did last season (133) with Ridley in town, but he should be more efficient with Ridley taking some coverage away from him and Trevor Lawrence likely to play better overall this season than he did a year ago.

Ridley’s addition will likely affect Zay Jones the most negatively from a statistical perspective. Jones received almost as many targets a year ago as Kirk (121), but was not nearly as efficient with them, finishing with a 82/823/5 slash line and a 67.3 PFF grade, not a big surprise for a player whose career best slash line in 5 years in the league prior to last season was 56/652/7 and whose career best PFF grade is 70.2.

Jones will be the clear third receiver in 2023 behind Ridley and Kirk and, as a result, is highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same target share, with the 81 targets that Marvin Jones had last season being a much more realistic estimate for Jones in 2023 than his 2022 total. He’s an above average third receiver in a talented position group and should be more efficient than he was a year ago in a smaller role, but he probably won’t see anywhere near the same level of total production as he had a year ago.

Tight end Evan Engram was also a big part of this passing game last season, posting a 73/766/4 slash line on 98 targets. Engram might not see as many targets in 2023 with Ridley being added, but, even if does, there’s a good chance he’s not as efficient or as productive as he was in 2022. Engram was a first round pick in 2017 and averaged a 69/740/4 slash line per 17 games in his first five seasons in the league with the Giants, but he missed 16 total games with injury, only playing every game once, and was not that efficient, averaging just 6.59 yards per target, as opposed to 7.82 in his first season in Jacksonville.

Engram is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he could keep that level of play up, but it’s more likely that he regresses or gets hurt again. The Jaguars also seem suspicious of his ability to keep up that level of play, franchise tagging him for 11.345 million in 2023, but declining to give him a top of the market long-term extension, at least as of this writing, and then using a second round pick on Penn State’s Brenton Strange as a potential long-term replacement, with Engram not signed in 2024 and beyond.

Depth wasn’t really needed much in the Jaguars’ receiving corps last season with their top-3 wide receivers and their top-2 tight ends all playing at least 16 games, but depth will almost definitely be more important this season, as it’s unlikely the Jaguars’ receiving corps will have the same health as a year ago. Jamal Agnew and Tim Jones return as their top reserve wide receivers, after playing just 139 snaps and 145 snaps respectively last season, and one or both of them are likely to have to see more playing time than that in 2023.

Jones is a 2021 undrafted free agent who showed very little in the first action of his career in 2022, averaging just 0.51 yards per route run, while Agnew is a career special teamer who has never played more than 260 snaps on offense in six seasons in the league, so both would be very underwhelming options if forced into extended action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, which is a strong possibility, given that it’s uncommon for a team’s top-3 wide receivers to all stay healthy for the entire season.

At tight end, Strange should be an upgrade in the passing game over blocking specialist Chris Manhertz (6 catches in 2022) as the #2 tight end and he will be a much better option than Manhertz would have been if he has to start in Engram’s absence, but Strange also might not be as good of a blocker in year one as Manhertz was either. It’s possible the Jaguars could use 2021 5th round pick Luke Farrell more as a blocking specialist, but he has played just 352 offensive snaps thus far in his career and would be a projection to a larger role, even as just a blocking specialist. The Jaguars have a very talented starting receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension to upgrade the one weak spot from a year ago, but depth is a concern in the likely scenario that the Jaguars have more injuries in this group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Jaguars’ offensive personnel in general are similar to a year ago, the group that will be the most different is their offensive line. That’s especially true at the tackle position where incumbent right tackle Jawaan Taylor left in free agency and incumbent left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a significant suspension to start the season after a failed drug test. Taylor and Robinson finished with PFF grades of just 58.7 and 67.2 respectively last season though, so they won’t be too hard to replace, especially since the Jaguars have obvious replacement options.

One of those options is Walker Little, who has made just 6 starts in two seasons in the league, but who has flashed potential in limited action and who was originally drafted to be a starter long-term when he was a second round pick in 2021. He should be at least a capable starter in his first season in that role and he has the upside to be more than that, in which case he would likely be an upgrade over Robinson and Taylor. The Jaguars also used their first round pick on Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. Harrison and Little will start at the beginning of the season with Robinson out and the better of the two will likely wind up at right tackle opposite Robinson when he returns.

There’s also a possibility that both players play too well in Robinson’s absence to be benched, in which case the Jaguars might opt to keep Robinson on the bench upon his return. Robinson is an experienced starter, starting all 75 games he has played since entering the league as a second round pick in 2017, and after some early career struggles, Robinson has had three straight seasons of PFF grades in the 60s, but he’s never had a PFF grade higher than 67.4 for a season and it wouldn’t be too hard for Harrison and/or Little to be an upgrade. Even if Robinson keeps his job upon his return, it’s very likely that this is his last season in Jacksonville, with a 17.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024 and comparable in-house replacements who are much cheaper.

On the interior of this offensive line, the biggest difference is the Jaguars should get a healthier season out of left guard Ben Bartch, who was limited to just 293 snaps in 5 games last season. Bartch isn’t a great player or anything, but the 2020 4th round pick had a 62.1 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2021, after taking over as the starter in week 5, and then had a 60.5 PFF grade in 5 starts last season before getting hurt, so he should get his starting job back upon his return. Veteran Tyler Shatley wasn’t bad in Bartch’s absence last season and has been a solid interior reserve for them for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season in 2023, he has just 45 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, and his career best PFF grade was 67.7 in 10 starts in 2020, so he would be best back in a reserve role.

It’s also possible Shatley could push for the starting job at center, although the Jaguars would probably prefer second year player Luke Fortner keeps the job, even after he was PFF’s 40th ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 49.6 grade in 17 starts. He could be better in year two and, while he would have to improve drastically to even become a solid starter, if that doesn’t happen, the Jaguars do have Shatley as an option if they want to bench Fortner and turn to the more reliable veteran.

Brandon Scherff remains at right guard. He was a big free agent signing last off-season, coming over from Washington on a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid guard in the league in average annual salary. Scherff was one of the best guards in the league in his first seven seasons in the league with Washington, posting a 72.5 PFF grade in every season, but he came with some risk as a signing for a couple reasons. For one, he was getting up there in age, with 2022 being his age 31 season, and he had a pretty significant injury history, missing 24 games over his final five seasons in Washington combined.

Injuries proved not to be a concern for Scherff his first season in Jacksonville, as he played every game for the first time since his second season in the league in 2016. However, age did prove to be a concern as Scherff’s play dropped off dramatically, leading to him finishing with just a 59.0 PFF grade. Now going into his age 32 season, Scherff’s best days are almost definitely behind him and, even if he could be better in 2023 than he was in a career worst 2022 season, it’s also possible that he has permanently declined and could continue to struggle. He also still has durability concerns, given his history. Without any elite players, this offensive line is underwhelming, but they’re not a bad group either.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Travis Etienne returns as the feature back. He actually started last season behind James Robinson, who had 90 touches to Etienne’s 67 in the Jaguars’ first six games of the season last year, in part because Etienne was working back from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season in 2021. However, Etienne showed why he was a first round pick originally in those six games, averaging 5.57 YPC on 54 carries and adding 146 yards on 13 catches, leading to Robinson being benched and then traded to the Jets, which led to Etienne becoming the featured back for the rest of the season.

Etienne wasn’t quite as efficient as he was when he was splitting carries, but he still had a 4.96 YPC on 166 carries and 22 catches for 170 yards in his final 11 games after Robinson got benched and traded and he finished the season with a 72.1 PFF grade. He might not see quite as much action per game in 2023 as he did down the stretch in 2022 though, as the Jaguars put an emphasis on improving their running back depth back behind Etienne this off-season, signing D’Ernest Johnson from the Browns and drafting Auburn’s Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round to give them other backup options besides JaMycal Hasty, who averaged 4.22 YPC on 46 carries as Etienne’s backup last season after Robinson’s departure and who has a 4.06 YPC average on 101 carries in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020.

D’Ernest Johnson isn’t that much more experienced than Hasty, buried on the depth chart in Cleveland behind probably the best running back duo in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but Johnson does have an impressive 5.23 YPC average on 141 carries in five seasons since going undrafted in 2018 and could easily see more playing time in Jacksonville than he did in Cleveland. Bigsby was a third round pick and could be a starting caliber player long-term, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson beat him out for the #2 job. Etienne still figures to be the featured back, but he might not see quite as many touches per game as he did after he became the feature back last season (17.1 per game), with better reserves options behind him on the depth chart.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While there were some changes on the Jaguars’ offense this off-season, mostly for the best, the Jaguars’ defense had remarkably little turnover from last year, bringing back all 10 players who played at least 500 snaps and 12 of 14 players who played at least 400 snaps. That might not be a good thing though as, unlike on offense where they finished 9th in DVOA, their defense finished 26th. On top of that, the Jaguars didn’t make any major additions to this group this off-season and they probably will have worse injury luck than a year ago, so they figure to be a below average group on this side of the ball again this season.

The two players the Jaguars did lose this off-season were reserve edge defenders Arden Key and Dawuane Smoot. They only played 475 snaps and 445 snaps respectively last season, but both played pretty well in a reserve role, earning grades of 81.3 and 70.3 respectively from PFF while combining for 9.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate. The Jaguars also didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Louisville’s Yasir Adbullah, so they will be relying on inexperienced young holdovers K’Lavon Chaisson and Jordan Smith, as well as Adbullah, as rotational reserve options.

Chaisson is actually a former first round pick, but he’s never had a grade of 60 or higher on PFF in three seasons in the league and has seen declining snap counts in every season, from 569 as a rookie to 384 in 2021 and just 109 last season. Chaisson is still only 24 and could have untapped potential, but counting on him as your top reserve option is tough and it’s probably something the Jaguars are doing out of necessity rather than true faith in Chaisson, who they barely gave any playing time last season. He’s their top reserve by default over the rookie Abdullah and Jordan Smith, who has played just 21 snaps in two seasons in the league.

The Jaguars do still have starters Josh Allen and Travon Walker, a pair of former first round picks in their own right. Allen was the 7th pick in 2019 and has so far lived up to the billing, breaking out with a 78.5 PFF grade in his third season in the league in 2021, after middling seasons to begin his career, and then he followed them up with an even better season in 2022, ranking 14th among edge defenders on PFF with a 82.9 grade on 895 snaps and totaling 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate on the season. Allen has always been a good pass rusher, with 27.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 57 career games, and his run defense has improved significantly throughout his career, allowing him to become one of the more complete players in the league at his position. Only going into his age 26 season, he should continue his high level of play for several seasons.

Travon Walker, meanwhile, was the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. That draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory at the top and Walker was considered a project entering the league, but his rookie year still had to be somewhat disappointing. He played 788 snaps as close to an every down starter, but he managed just 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while earning just a 60.3 grade from PFF. He still has a sky high upside though and could easily take a big step forward in year two. The Jaguars will need that to compensate for their lack of depth. If Walker does not improve significantly, Josh Allen is the only reliable outside pass rusher the Jaguars have.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Jaguars top-4 players in terms of snaps played last season were Roy Robertson-Harris (714 snaps), Davon Hamilton (610 snaps), Folorunso Fatukasi (446 snaps), and Adam Gotsis (293 snaps) and all four return for this season and should play similar roles. Hamilton was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 74.9 grade on PFF, a breakout season for the 2020 3rd round pick, who had previously received PFF grades of just 53.9 and 52.8 on 408 snaps and 443 snaps in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Hamilton is a one-year wonder who could regress a little this season, but he’s only in his early prime in his age 26 season and could easily remain an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Originally going into the final year of his rookie contract this season, the Jaguars extended him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal this off-season.

Robertson-Harris also got an extension this off-season, re-signing for 21.6 million over 3 years ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract as well. He wasn’t as good as Hamilton last season, but he’s a good value on that contract. He’s always been a good pass rusher, with a 9.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s gotten better as a run defender as well, allowing him to play an every down role like he did in 2023, when he played a career high in snaps and held up with an overall 63.9 PFF grade. Robertson-Harris is still better as a pass rusher than a run stopper, with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but he’s a capable overall player and should remain that in 2023, even if he’s starting to get up there in age in his age 30 season.

Adam Gotsis was also solid with a 65.6 PFF grade last season, albeit in very limited action. He’s an experienced 7-year veteran who has been middling on an average of 411 snaps per season in his career, but now he’s heading into his age 31 season and he could easily become an increasingly less reliable reserve option. The Jaguars won’t need much from him this season barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he could still prove to be a liability. He could also be pushed for his role by 4th round rookie Tyler Lacy, who figures to start the season as a deep reserve, but who could earn playing time as the year goes on.

The only one of this group who truly struggled last season was Fatukasi, who was a big disappointment in the first year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar contract that he signed to come over from the Jets last off-season, posting a 44.5 PFF grade in his first season in Jacksonville, good for 123rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders. Fatukasi was a dominant run stuffer early in his career, with PFF grades of 87.6 and 86.2 against the run in 2019 and 2020 respectively as a part-time player (390 snaps and 507 snaps), but that fell to 57.3 in his final season in New York in 2021 (558 snaps) and then fell even further to 41.4 in 2022.

The big 6-4 318 pounder has never been much of a pass rusher with a career 5.5% pressure rate, so the sudden drop off of his run stopping abilities is a significant concern. Fatukasi probably won’t be as bad in 2023 as he was in 2022, but now two years removed from his last above average season, it’s possible he won’t regain his old form, even though he’s theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season. He’ll have to bounce back in a pretty big way to justify remaining on the roster in 2024, owed a non-guaranteed 8 million. He’s part of a decent, but underwhelming position group on the interior.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars overhauled their linebacking corps last off-season, using a first round pick on Devin Lloyd and signing ex-Falcon Foyesade Oluokun to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Neither player really lived up to the resources the team committed to them in year one though. Lloyd was a solid run defender, but led all linebackers with 722 receiving yards allowed in coverage and finished with an overall 48.3 grade from PFF, due to his struggles in coverage. Lloyd has the potential to be a lot better in year two, but that’s not a guarantee.

Oluokun, on the other hand, wasn’t bad last season, playing 1,145 snaps (all but 18) and receiving a 69.6 PFF grade, 31st among off ball linebackers, but it’s hard to say he was worth how much the Jaguars paid to sign him. That contract came as a big surprise as Oluokun had never been more than a solid linebacker in four seasons in Atlanta, making 41 starts and averaging 720 snaps per season, but never finishing above 65.7 in PFF grade, meaning last season was actually a career best PFF for Oluokun. Oluokun is in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and could easily remain a slightly above average every down linebacker in 2023, but I don’t expect him to ever live up to his contract.

The Jaguars also added Chad Muma in the third round of last year’s draft and he played 286 middling snaps behind Oluokun and Lloyd. He’s expected to play the same role in 2023 and he’s a solid backup option to have, as he has the upside to be a starter long-term and could potentially fill in capably as an every down player if there’s an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Oluokun is a solid every down player and Muma and Lloyd both have potential, even if they haven’t shown themselves to be reliable every down options yet, but, overall, this is a middling at best linebacking corps.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The one major injury the Jaguars had on defense last season was losing starting cornerback Shaq Griffin for the season after 336 snaps in 5 games. Griffin was let go this off-season to save 13.5 million and the Jaguars didn’t really replace him, which is surprising, as his replacement Tre Herndon struggled in his absence with a 55.4 PFF grade on 416 snaps and is their only realistic candidate to replace him. Herndon hasn’t been any better in the past either, as his mediocre PFF grade last season was actually a career best. He’ll almost definitely be no worse than their 3rd cornerback this season, with their only other options for the job being veteran journeyman Tevaughn Campbell, who is going into his age 30 season with a career best PFF grade for a season of 56.9, 2020 7th round pick Chris Claybrooks, who has struggled on 621 career snaps, and 6th round rookie Christian Braswell.

Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams remain locked in as the starting every down cornerbacks in base packages, with the former being one of the best players in the league at his position. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell struggled to begin his career, with a 52.8 PFF grade through 8 games, but that improved to 72.3 from week 12 on and he continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked cornerback with a 82.1 grade. Campbell is inexperienced and a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best players in the league at his position for years to come.

Darious Williams, meanwhile, was a free agent acquisition last off-season, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. Williams has been a starter for three seasons dating back to his time with the Rams (35 starts), but he hasn’t been able to repeat the level of play he reached in 2020, when he received a 80.0 PFF grade on 824 snaps, following up that season with PFF grades of 65.3 and 61.4 over the past two seasons on snap counts of 924 and 944 respectively. Now going into his age 30 season with only one above average season on his resume, it’s unlikely he’ll ever bounce back to that level of play, but he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter in 2023, even if he is starting to get up there in age.

Starting safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco both remain as well. Jenkins signed with the Jaguars on a 4-year, 35 contract two off-season ago and has started 31 games for the Jaguars in two seasons since, but he’s struggled overall with PFF grades of 56.9 and 57.3, failing to live up to the level he played at in his final two seasons with the Chargers, when he had PFF grades of 63.1 and 68.9 while starting another 31 games. The Jaguars restructured Jenkins contract this off-season, freeing up cap space, but making it more difficult to cut him long-term, so they clearly still believe in him and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled again in 2023.

Cisco was the better of the two safeties, with a 67.1 PFF grade in 15 starts. A third round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential on 247 snaps as a rookie, so it wasn’t really a surprise he continued his solid play in a larger role. Still only in his age 23 season, Cisco could easily still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, I would expect him to continue being at least a solid starter. The Jaguars also have a good reserve safety in veteran Andrew Wingard, who has made 22 starts of his own over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.8, 69.0, and 79.9 respectively, making him a very valuable backup option to have. Overall, this is a solid secondary, but Tre Herndon figures to be a liability as the #3 cornerback and Rayshawn Jenkins could continue struggling as a starting safety.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars are a young team who won 7 of their last 9 games last season to surprisingly finish in first place in their division and this season they’ll get talented receiver Calvin Ridley back from suspension, so some have high expectations for this team in 2023. However, there are reasons to expect them to not keep winning games at the rate in which they won games down the stretch last season. For one, while they were never as bad as their 2-6 record suggested, with a 0-6 record in one-score games and a +14 point differential during that stretch, they were also never as good as their 7-2 record suggested, with a +40 point differential and a 4-0 record in one-score games during that stretch. On top of that, the Jaguars are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury.

I would still expect the Jaguars to be better overall in 2023 than they were in 2022, with several young players legitimately seeming to turn a corner down the stretch last season, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks like one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league and now has a new wide receiver to throw to. However, I would pump the brakes on this team doing anything more than winning their underwhelming division, as I still think they’re a little short of being a true Super Bowl contender. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 9-8, 1st in AFC South

Houston Texans 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

The Texans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past three seasons, with records of 4-12, 4-13, and 3-13-1, collapsing after years of failed attempts to go all in for a Super Bowl, leaving them with just one first round pick and just two top-50 picks in a four year span from 2018-2021. Their lack of high draft picks severely handicapped their ability to add young talent behind their key veterans and, as many of those key veterans left in a short period of time (DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Jadeveon Clowney, JJ Watt, Kareem Jackson. Tyrann Mathieu, and DJ Reader, among others), the Texans were predictably left with a barren roster, leading to their recent struggles.

Fortunately for the Texans, the NFL is designed for teams not to be too bad for too long. The Texans received a trio of first round picks from the Browns in exchange for Watson, giving them two first round picks in each of the past two drafts, with their own first round picks being 3rd in 2021 and 2nd in 2022 as a result of their poor performance on the field. The Texans have also finally freed up some cap space after years of salary cap hell, allowing them to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The Texans probably aren’t a playoff team yet, but their recent additions give them a lot of hope for the future.

None of their recent additions is more important than the Texans’ selection of Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud with the #2 overall pick in this year’s draft, giving the Texans what they hope is their first franchise quarterback since Deshaun Watson’s last season with the team in 2020. In the two seasons since Watson last suited up for the team, the Texans have completed 62.8% of their passes for an average of 6.46 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, as big of a reason as any for their struggles over that time. Stroud is not a sure thing, but he’s a high level quarterback prospect who is NFL ready and it won’t be hard for him to be an immediate upgrade over what the Texans have had under center in recent years, even if he has growing pains as a rookie. He figures to start week one.

Davis Mills is the quarterback who has started the most for the Texans over the past two seasons and who was by default their best quarterback, even though he completed 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, with the team going just 5-19-1 in his starts. He’s a young quarterback in his own right, a 3rd round pick in 2021, and he has still has the upside to be at least an above average backup long-term, but it’s hard to see where he fits in Houston, with the Texans not only drafting Stroud, but also signing veteran journeyman backup Case Keenum in free agency to a contract that guarantees him 4 million, effectively locking him into a roster spot. The Texans might opt to carry three quarterbacks, but that seems unlikely and Mills probably has enough value and upside that the Texans could trade him and get something for him rather than having to cut him outright if they wanted to move on from him.

Regardless of what happens with Mills, Keenum seems like the most likely backup option. He’s going into his age 35 season now, but he’s an experienced backup/stopgap starter, with 64 starts in 11 seasons in the league, and he’s fared pretty well with a 85.2 QB rating for his career. He has made just two starts over the past three seasons, so, given his age, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll fare if forced into extended action by an injury to Stroud, but he’s still probably an above average backup option and the Texans are obviously hoping he doesn’t have to see the field. Stroud should represent an upgrade under center for the Texans in 2023, even if he struggles a little bit as a rookie.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One key player who remains from the last time the Texans were competitive is left tackle Laremy Tunsil, the acquisition of whom is actually part of why the Texans ended up in the situation they were in, as he cost the Texans two first round picks in a trade, one of which was the 3rd overall pick, which was subsequently traded for three more first round picks. Tunsil has been one of the Texans’ better players since being acquired, with PFF grades of 75.8, 75.4, and 80.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2022 respectively, with an injury plagued 2021 season in between, but the Texans had to give him a 3-year, 66 million dollar extension when they acquired him and then a subsequent 3-year, 75 million dollar extension this off-season to keep him long-term, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s one of the better left tackles in the league and he’s still in his prime in his age 29 season, but the Texans surrendered a lot in terms of draft capital and salary to acquire and keep him.

The Texans have also spent two first round picks on the offensive line in recent years, one of whom, Tytus Howard, was their only first round pick in that 4-year stretch that I mentioned earlier. Howard hasn’t quite been worth that draft selection, but he’s posted grades of 62.1 and 67.9 on PFF in his last two seasons at right tackle in 2020 and 2022 respectively, with a failed experiment at guard (51.4 PFF grade) in 2021 in between, so he wasn’t really a bad pick either and he should remain at least a solid starting right tackle. He and Tunsil will be backed up by 2020 4th round pick Charlie Heck, who has struggled in 17 career starts, but who isn’t a horrible swing tackle option.

The other first round pick they used on this unit was Kenyon Green, who was selected 15th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Green subsequently had a horrendous rookie season, finishing 87th among 88 eligible guards on PFF with a 37.7 grade. He still has the upside to be a lot better long-term and, at the very least, I wouldn’t expect him to be that bad two years in a row, but he has a long way to go to at least be an average starting left guard.

The Texans also used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft on Penn State’s Juice Scruggs, who figures to start at center as a rookie, where he almost definitely will be an upgrade on incumbent Scott Quessenberry, who finished as PFF’s worst ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 36.6 grade in the first extended starting experience of the 2018 5th round pick’s career. Scruggs could also struggle as a rookie as well, but just by sending Quessenberry to a reserve role, he should upgrade this offensive line at least somewhat.

Also added this off-season is veteran Shaq Mason, who the Texans acquired from the Buccaneers via trade and subsequently signed to a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal. Mason is going into his age 30 season and coming off the worst PFF grade of his career since his rookie season in 2015, but he still posted a 68.9 PFF grade, after six straight seasons of 70+ grades, including five seasons in the 80s, and he’s not totally over the hill yet, so he could have some bounce back potential.

At the very least, Mason should give them a solid starter with the upside to be more if he can turn back the clock a little. Incumbent right guard AJ Cann wasn’t bad last season (66.6), but the Texans upgraded a little by letting Cann walk in free agency and replacing him with Mason. With Mason coming in, better play expected from Kenyon Green, and the addition of Juice Scruggs in the draft, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but they’re still probably only about average.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One player the Texans lost this off-season is veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and his production (57/699/3) in 2022 was not in line with his scheduled 18 million dollar salary for 2023, but he still led the team in receiving yards in 13 games and poor quarterback play was likely as much to blame as anything for his disappointing statistical season, after surpassing 1000 yards in six of the previous seven seasons.

The Texans probably wanted to keep Cooks, who had a 72.3 PFF grade in 2022, but Cooks had left the team for a period last year and had demanded a trade, so the Texans eventually had to give him his wish, sending him to Dallas. His 18 million dollar salary for 2023 was fully guaranteed, so the Texans had to eat 6 million in a trade that only returned a 5th round pick and 6th round pick, which is disappointing for the Texans, especially since they’re losing a key player in the process, albeit an aging and expensive one.

To replace Cooks, the Texans signed veteran Robert Woods and used a 3rd round pick on Tank Dell. They’ll also get 2022 2nd round pick John Metchie back from an illness that cost him his entire rookie season and they could get more out of 2021 3rd round pick Nico Collins. It’s unlikely any of them will give the Texans the upside Cooks would have. Dell and Metchie have upside, but neither have played in the NFL yet and will almost definitely have growing pains in their first NFL action.

Woods used to be a 1000+ yard receiver with the Rams, surpassing that mark in 2018 (86/1219/6) and 2019 (90/1134/2) and averaging a 92/1157/6 slash line per 17 games in five seasons in Los Angeles, but a bad knee injury ended his 2021 season after nine games and subsequently ended his tenure with the Rams, with the Titans acquiring him last off-season in what amounted to a salary dump of his 13 million dollar salary, 3 million of which the Rams ate as part of the trade in exchange for a late round pick.

Woods disappointed in Tennessee in his first season back from injury, with a 53/527/2 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average after averaging 1.88 yards per route run with the Rams, and, as a result, he was released by the Titans ahead of 13.75 million non-guaranteed owed this season. The Texans are getting him much cheaper, on a 2-year, 15.25 million dollar deal, and he could be better another year removed from injury, but he’s also going into his age 31 season now, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, even if he happens to be somewhat better this season than a year ago.

With Woods not being a #1 caliber receiver anymore, it’s possible Nico Collins leads this team in receiving. Collins hasn’t played that much in two seasons in the league, limited to 536 snaps in 14 games as a rookie (38.3 snaps per game) and then playing a bigger role in 2022 (44.1 snaps per game), but missing seven games due to injury. However, his yards per route run average jumped from 1.24 as a rookie to 1.68 last season, despite mediocre quarterback play and he has the upside to take a step forward in year three in a bigger role with a better quarterback. He’s not likely to be a #1 caliber receiver either, but he probably has the most upside of the group.

The Texans did add veteran tight end Dalton Schultz from the Cowboys in free agency this off-season, on a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal and, with the lack of a true #1 receiver, Schultz figures to have a big role. Schultz was franchise tagged last off-season by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year.

His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022, but a knee injury cost him two games and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games. He won’t have as good of quarterback play in Houston as he did in Dallas, but he’ll probably be a bigger part of the offense in Houston and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade at the position for a team whose best tight end in 2022 had a 37/495/5 slash line.

That tight end, Jordan Akins (406 snaps), is no longer with the team, nor is OJ Howard (310 snaps), leaving 2021 5th round pick Brevin Jordan and 2022 5th round pick Teagan Quitoriano as the primary reserve options behind Schultz. Both have some upside and neither will be counted on for a big role, but both could easily see a career high in snaps, with Jordan playing just 503 snaps in two seasons in the league and Quitoriano playing just 322 snaps as a rookie, and both could struggle in a larger role. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, but they lack a #1 option and have a lot of inexperienced players.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Starting running back Dameon Pierce was a rare bright spot on this offense last season, as the 4th round rookie rushed for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in just 13 games, while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF. The problem was all of the Texans’ other running backs, who struggled mightily when Pierce wasn’t not on the field. Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman, and Rex Burkhead were next on the team with 42 carries, 41 carries, and 26 carries respectively, but they averaged just 2.93 YPC, 2.85 YPC, and 3.08 YPC respectively.

The Texans addressed their need for running back depth by signing free agent Devin Singletary, bringing him over from the Bills on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. The Texans’ needed another running back, but Singletary is an odd fit. He still shouldn’t take more than a few carries per game away from Pierce, who is the better back, but he’s being paid a somewhat significant amount, suggesting he’ll have a role in some capacity. He also doesn’t compliment Dameon Pierce’s weakness well as, like Pierce, Singletary has struggled in the passing game in his career, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run (0.83 yards per route run for Pierce).

It’s possible Singletary could cut into Pierce’s carries a little bit and Pierce could compensate with more usage in the passing game, but Pierce and Singletary seem too similar to be a good fit together, with Singletary as a lesser version. Singletary averaged 4.69 YPC on 672 carries in four seasons in Buffalo, but he benefited significantly from playing on one of the best offenses in the league, where there was plenty of room to run. That won’t be the case in Houston, where Pierce was still able to have success despite the lack of talent around him and Singletary may not be able to.

The Texans may also still use holdover Dare Ogunbowale in obvious passing situations, something they did in certain situations last season (130 of his 184 snaps played were on passing downs last season). He was underwhelming in that role though, averaging just 1.04 yards per route run, and has just 1.01 yards per route run and 3.30 yards per carry for his career. If he has a significant role, it’s because the Texans just don’t trust Pierce or Singletary in passing situations. Most likely, Ogunbowale will just be a deep reserve, with Pierce and Singletary splitting work probably 2/1 on both early downs and passing downs, but it’s a situation to pay attention to.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Texans also made some significant additions on defense this off-season. At the interior defender position, their biggest addition was Sheldon Rankins, who comes over from the Jets on a 1-year, 9.5 million dollar deal after a 2022 season in which he had a 73.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps, one of the best seasons of his career. Rankins also received a 79.0 grade on 642 from PFF in 2018, but, prior to last season, he hadn’t reached that level since, limited to 738 mostly nondescript snaps in 22 games combined in injury plagued seasons in 2019 and 2020, before struggling mightily in his first season with the Jets in 2021, when he had a career worst 46.1 PFF grade.

Rankins is a capable run defender too, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 23.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate for his career. He’s still only in his age 29 season and the former first round pick has plenty of talent when he’s at his best, but his history of inconsistency and injury (20 games missed in seven seasons in the league) suggests that he’s unlikely to repeat last season’s performance. Still, Rankins should be a welcome addition for a Texans team that only had one interior defender receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022, Maliek Collins, who received a 65.4 on 601 snaps.

Collins remains with the team and should be the other starter inside next to Rankins. Collins’ run defense, leaves something to be desired, as he’s received a grade lower than 60 for his run defense from PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, but he’s been above 60 in pass rush grade in every season, totaling 20.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate in his career, and he’s finished in the 60s for overall grade in four of the past five seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2023.

Roy Lopez (557 snaps), Kurt Hinish (435 snaps), and Thomas Booker (206 snaps) all played significant roles last season and remain on the roster, but they all struggled, with PFF grades of 52.7, 49.5, and 35.3 respectively, and all will have to compete for reserve roles in 2023, along with veteran journeyman Hassan Ridgeway, who the Texans added in free agency. Ridgeway has been middling at best on an average of 247 snaps played per season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s not a strong reserve option, but none of the Texans other interior defenders look like strong reserve options either.

Lopez was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and also struggled as a rookie with a 55.7 PFF grade on 502 snaps, while Hinish and Booker were rookies that went undrafted and in the 5th round respectively in 2022. It’s possible those three young players have some untapped upside, but given where they were drafted, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they never developed into even reliable rotational players. Collins and Rankins are a decent starting duo, but their lack of depth makes this an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

On the edge, the Texans’ big addition this off-season came through the draft. After using the 2nd overall pick on quarterback CJ Stroud, the Texans then traded up to the 3rd pick immediately after, surrendering the 12th overall pick they received in the Deshaun Watson trade, as well as their own first round pick next year, to select Alabama edge defender Will Anderson, widely considered the top defensive prospect in the draft and the Texans’ second choice at 2 if they had decided not to take a quarterback.

The Texans will still have a first round pick next year from the Watson trade, but it’s still a risky move for a team like the Texans who could have a high pick again next year to give away their own pick and the Texans still probably aren’t in a position to be giving away future first round picks, considering how many recent drafts they have had without a first round pick. However, Anderson comes with a massive upside and, if he makes good on that upside, the Texans’ trade up for him will prove worth it. He probably won’t make good on that upside right away as a rookie, but he should still have a positive impact for this team.

With Anderson being added, the edge defender position looks like it will be a strength for this team in 2023. The Texans lost a trio of edge defenders who played significant roles last season, Rasheem Green (567 snaps), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (517 snaps), and Mario Addison (367 snaps), but Green (62.4 PFF grade) and Addison (57.8 PFF grade) were underwhelming last season and, while Okoronkwo played at a pretty high level (75.1 PFF grade), the Texans should still get better edge defender play in 2022 than they had in 2023 even without Okoronkwo, in part because of the addition of Anderson, but also because they should get a healthier season out of Jonathan Greenard, who was limited to 284 middling snaps in 8 games last season by injury.

Greenard looked on his way to a breakout season in 2022, after the 2020 3rd round pick flashed in limited action in 2021, only playing 414 snaps, but receiving a 82.9 PFF grade and totaling 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate, despite the limited playing time. Because of that promise, Greenard’s injury plagued 2022 season (63.4 PFF grade) was disappointing, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and could easily have that breakout season in 2023 if he can stay healthy. That’s not a guarantee, considering he’s still a projection to a larger role and has only finished with better than an average grade on PFF once in three seasons in the league, but he has plenty of upside.

Greenard also probably won’t have to play a huge role in a position group that has Will Anderson, as well as veteran holdover Jerry Hughes, who had a 71.4 PFF grade across 689 snaps last season. That’s nothing new for Hughes, who has finished above 70 on PFF in nine of the previous ten seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 61.5 sacks, 69 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate over that span. Hughes doesn’t seem to have slowed down much, with 9 sacks, no hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s only missed two games in the past 11 seasons combined, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so he could easily decline significantly this season. Even if he does though, he should at least be a capable edge defender, with the potential to be an above average option if he doesn’t decline significantly.

Hughes, Greenard, and Anderson will rotate heavily and should form an above average edge defender trio. With those three on the depth chart, there isn’t much need for depth behind them, but veteran Jacob Martin figures to see at least some snaps as a deep reserve. Martin was added in free agency this off-season and it’s a return to Houston for him, after spending 2019-2021 with the Texans. Martin earned below average grades of 56.5 and 53.8 in limited roles in 2019 (220 snaps) and 2020 (375 snaps) respectively, but took a step forward in 2021, receiving a 67.3 PFF grade on 700 snaps.

Martin’s solid 2021 season led to him receiving a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal from the Jets in free agency last off-season, but he was buried in a deep edge defender rotation in New York, playing just 152 snaps in eight games, and was traded to the Broncos mid-season for a swap of mid-round picks. With Denver, Martin played just 109 snaps in five games before going down for the season with injury and he was subsequently released this off-season, saving 5 million. Martin still had a 65.1 PFF grade across 267 snaps last season, his second straight season with a grade over 65, so he should be a good option as a deep reserve in a position group that is led by a talented trio.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Texans didn’t make any big additions at linebacker this off-season, but they signed a pair of veteran linebackers, Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton, to cheap one-year deals worth 2.6 million and 2.4 million respectively and they should be valuable additions for a team who didn’t have a linebacker play more than 250 snaps and receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022. Perryman and Litteton, meanwhile, received grades of 74.2 and 72.2 respectively last season from PFF, 17th and 24th among eligible linebackers, but were available cheaply for similar reasons.

Perryman has finished above 70 on PFF four times in eight seasons in the league, including three of the past five seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, he’s missed 34 games in his career, while never once playing in every game in a season, and he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career, with three seasons below 60 on PFF in his career, though two were in his second and third season in the league. He’s especially been inconsistent in coverage, which, combined with his injury history, has prevented him from playing more than 600 snaps in all but one season in the league.

Perryman has five straight seasons over 65 in run defense grade on PFF and he has a good chance to remain an above average early down linebacker in 2023, even given his age, but he figures to miss more time with injury at some point this season, he likely won’t play in many sub packages in obvious passing situations, and it’s possible his abilities drop off significantly, now on the wrong side of 30. Even still, he’s an upgrade over what the Texans had last season, and at a cheap price.

Littleton comes cheap for similar reasons, particularly his age (age 30 season) and his history of inconsistency, especially in coverage. Littleton was an above average every down linebacker in 2018 and 2019 with the Rams, finishing with PFF grades of 66.0 and 79.0 respectively on snap counts of 964 and 1,039 respectively, landing him a big contract with the Raiders. However, Littleton was a big bust with the Raiders, falling all the way to 46.3 in PFF grade on 849 snaps in his first season with the team and continuing to struggle with a 47.2 PFF grade in his second season, in which he would get benched and play just 663 snaps total.

Littleton’s struggles with the Raiders led to him being released last off-season and landing with the Carolina Panthers, with whom he proved to be a solid base package linebacker, with a 72.2 PFF grade on 372 snaps. Littleton could play close to an every down role in Houston and he has more of a history of doing so and succeeding in coverage than Perryman, but he’s also been the worst of the two players overall in recent years and could regress back to his 2020-2021 form in an every down role again. Like Perryman, he’s an upgrade by default and comes with some potential if he can play up to his best level, but I think he’s less likely than Perryman to play up to his best and I think his floor is lower as well.

Christian Kirksey (1,139 snaps) and Christian Harris (711 snaps) are their top returning linebackers from a year ago and both figure to continue having at least some role, with Perryman and/or Littleton likely limited to base package play. Kirksey is also a veteran and he is plenty experienced with 94 starts in 114 games in nine seasons in the league, averaging 57.0 snaps played per game, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five straight seasons and is now going into his age 31 season, so he would almost definitely be a below average option, after a 2022 season in which he finished with a 56.1 PFF grade.

Harris, on the other hand, was a third round rookie last season and he struggled even more, finishing dead last out of 93 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF with a 28.3 grade. He has the upside to be better in year two and is probably the best coverage athlete of the bunch, but his coverage play (29.6 PFF grade in 2022) will need to take a big step forward for him to be a reliable option in sub packages. Perryman and Littleton make this linebacking corps better by default, but they have their own problems and the rest of this group is very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Secondary

At cornerback, the Texans big addition this off-season was Shaq Griffin, who two off-seasons ago signed a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Jaguars. Griffin was pretty good in his first season in Jacksonville, with a 72.0 PFF grade, his second season in the 70s in three years, and wasn’t bad to start last season either, with a 61.8 PFF grade in five games, but he missed the rest of the season with injury and the Jaguars subsequently cut him this off-season to avoid paying him the final 13.5 million of his contract. Griffin is still only in his age 28 season, so it’s surprising the Texans were able to get him for just 3.5 million on a one-year deal, especially since they don’t even guarantee him an opportunity to start.

Derek Stingley was the third overall pick in last year’s draft and, even after an injury plagued rookie season in which he had a 49.1 PFF grade in 9 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job and has a great chance to be significantly improved in year two, even if only by default. Desmond King probably has the slot locked down, after posting a 73.2 grade last season, his 4th season above 70 in six seasons in the league. Steven Nelson is probably the most vulnerable to losing his job to Griffin, but he has a good chance to keep his job after a 66.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, his 7th straight season above 60 on PFF (99 starts).

Nelson is going into his age 30 season, but, assuming he doesn’t decline significantly, he could still hold off Griffin for the starting job. The Texans also have Tavierre Thomas, primarily a special teamer, who has surprised with PFF grades of 77.6 and 70.0 on 639 snaps and 409 snaps respectively on defense over the past two seasons. He’ll probably only be a deep reserve, but he legitimately makes the Texans five deep at cornerback and, even if they don’t have a clear #1 cornerback, this is a solid group overall, especially if Stingley takes a big step forward in year two, which he has the potential to do.

At safety, the Texans added Jimmie Ward on a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be a massive upgrade over incumbent Jonathan Owens, who is no longer with the team after finishing 92nd out of 96 eligible safeties with a 48.3 PFF grade last season. Ward, on the other hand, has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons. He comes relatively cheap in free agency because of his age, going into his age 32 season, and his injury history, 40 games missed in 9 seasons in the league, with just one season in which he played every game. He comes with some risk, but he should be a massive upgrade regardless.

Jalen Pitre also struggled last season as the other starting safety, receiving a 54.7 grade from PFF, but he was only a rookie and the former second round pick could easily take a step forward in 2023 in his second season as a starter. If he continues to struggle, it’s possible he could be benched and the Texans could leverage their cornerback depth to fill his spot, with slot cornerback Desmond King having experience at safety as well. The Texans also have solid depth at safety with Eric Murray and MJ Stewart.

Murray has been a middling starter at best in his career, but he has made 40 starts in seven seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve option, while Stewart is not nearly as experienced, maxing out at 328 snaps in five seasons in the league, but the former second round pick has flashed in limited action with PFF grades of 83.8 and 70.1 over the past two seasons. This is a solid secondary overall, much improved last season, with Ward and Griffin being added and Stingley and Pitre going into their second seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

After three years of being among the worst teams in the league, the Texans are finally heading in the right direction, selecting a potential franchise quarterback high in this year’s draft and finally having cap space to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The result is a team that is still unlikely to make the post-season, but that should be a lot more competitive this season, after 16 losses by double digits over the past two seasons combined. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South

Tennessee Titans 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 6, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

The Titans finished the 2021 season with a 12-5 record, giving them the #1 seed in the AFC, but they went 6-2 in one-score games and finished just 20th in DVOA, so it seemed likely they would regress significantly in 2022, especially given the key players they lost last off-season. The Titans seemed to defy expectations to start the year, starting 7-3, but most of their wins were close against sub-.500 teams, so a regression still seemed likely and it came in a big way when they lost their final seven games to finish out of the playoffs at 7-10, while finishing 23rd in DVOA.

This off-season, the Titans lost even more key personnel as they start to enter what looks like something of a rebuild. One player they didn’t move on from this off-season that they could have moved on from is quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is set to make a non-guaranteed 27 million in the final year of his contract. The Titans could have saved the whole amount against the cap by getting rid of him and he probably would have had at least somewhat of a trade market, but the Titans opted to keep him as the starter for the 5th straight season.

Tannehill burst onto the scene with the Titans in 2019, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 9.59 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, good for by far a career best 117.5 QB rating, after previously maxing out at 93.5 in the first seven seasons of his career in Miami. He continued playing well in his second season in Tennessee, albeit not as good as 2019, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

However, his production has dropped off across the board over the past two seasons, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.32 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, a drop off that coincided with the decrease in supporting talent around him on this offense. Now going into his age 35 season, Tannehill’s best days are likely behind him and he will almost definitely remain a quarterback who, at best, is only as good as his supporting cast. That’s not a good combination with a mediocre supporting cast and a rebuilding roster, so it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Titans move on from him this off-season, but he’ll be back for another season.

One thing the Titans didn’t do this off-season was commit to Tannehill long-term, not only declining to give him an extension, even though doing so would have lowered his cap hit, but also selecting a possible successor Will Levis with the 33rd pick in the draft. Levis enters the league raw and will begin his career as a backup, but he has the upside to be a starter long-term and it’s likely the Titans view him as their starter in 2024 and beyond, perhaps even earlier if Tannehill struggles and/or the team falls out of contention this season.

At the very least, Levis should give them a better backup than they had last season, when they struggled to replace Ryan Tannehill in the five games he missed with injury (four losses). The Titans first turned to Malik Willis, a 2022 3rd round pick who was drafted as a potential successor to Tannehill, but he struggled so much (42.8 QB rating) that the Titans benched him for career journeyman Josh Dobbs, who had a 73.8 QB rating in the first two starts of his 6-year career. Dobbs is no longer with the team, while Willis is likely to be cut or traded before the start of the season with Levis now the #2 quarterback and the long-term quarterback of the future. The Titans’ don’t have a bad quarterback room, but it’s a position group in transition with the aging, middling, and highly-paid Tannehill looking over his shoulder at a young, high upside, cheaper option.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Titans had the third most adjusted games lost to injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, which would seem to give the Titans a some hope of improvement overall in 2023, but many of the key players who missed time with injury last season are no longer on the roster at all, so the Titans aren’t going to benefit significantly from players returning from injury. The offensive line is a good example, as left tackle Taylor Lewan, center Ben Jones, and right guard Nate Davis were limited to 2 starts, 12 starts, and 12 starts respectively last season and are all no longer on the roster.

In their place, the Titans have free agent acquisitions Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill and first round draft pick Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern. Dillard has the best chance of the three to significantly upgrade a position, as he’ll play left tackle, where Taylor Lewan missed most of the season and where the Titans got very poor play in his absence, with Dennis Daley finishing as PFF’s 83rd ranked offensive tackle out of 87 eligible.

Dillard hasn’t started many games at the NFL level, making nine starts in four seasons in the league, but that’s in part due to injury and in part because he was stuck behind one of the best offensive tackle duos in the league with the Eagles in Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Dillard has been decent in limited action and was actually a first round pick back in 2019, so he comes with some upside, but he’ll mostly just be an upgrade because of how bad their play was at the position a year ago. The Titans may have overpaid by giving him 29 million over 3 years, although it’s possible he plays up to that level if he can stay healthy and show his top form consistently.

Skoronski has the most upside of the group, as is to be expected out of a rookie first round pick, but it’s unclear where he’ll play. Skoronski was a tackle in college, but is practicing at both guard and tackle this off-season and could conceivably start at either spot. If Skoronski plays tackle, it would almost definitely be right tackle opposite Dillard, where he would replace Nicholas Petit-Frere, who struggled with a 52.3 grade from PFF last season. Petit-Frere was a 3rd round pick who was just a rookie last season though, so the Titans may not want to give up on him just now, so Skoronski could start inside at either guard spot instead.

If Skoronski played right guard, he would struggle to be an upgrade over Nate Davis, who was PFF’s 16th ranked guard last season at 70.6. That’s true of anyone on the roster though and Skoronski would at least give them the best chance. At left guard, Skoronski would almost definitely be an upgrade over Aaron Brewer, who received a 59.9 grade in 17 starts last season, after receiving a 56.3 in 5 starts in 2021 in the first significant action of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career.

The Titans are thin enough on the offensive line that they’ll probably need Brewer to start somewhere, but that somewhere could be center, where they’ll need to replace Ben Jones, who had a 71.9 PFF grade in 12 starts last season. Daniel Brunskill, their other free agent addition, could also start at center, or he could start at one of the guard spots, as he has experience at both guard and center in his career. He’s mostly been a middling starter in his career, but he does have 42 starts over the past four seasons and the Titans need a reliable starter on the inside, so he wasn’t a bad addition on a 2-year, 5.5 million contract. He’ll likely start wherever Brewer doesn’t, with Skoronski possibly playing the other guard spot.

If Skoronski ends up outside, that would open up a starting job inside for Dillon Radunz, a 2021 2nd round pick who has been terrible in limited action, but who theoretically still has upside. Radunz has only played snap totals of 124 and 280 in his first two seasons in the league and he received grades of just 49.7 and 40.3 from PFF for his limited action, so it seems unlikely he’ll suddenly turn into a solid starter in year three, but it’s a possibility. There’s some upside with this group, but there’s a lot of uncertainty with a group that has very little experience overall.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Another veteran player the Titans moved on from this off-season was wide receiver Robert Woods, who would have been owed 13.75 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2023. Woods was their team leader in targets with 91, but he won’t be missed much as he was highly inefficient with those targets, turning them into just a 53/527/2 slash line. The Titans didn’t really replace Woods and will hope to get more out of young wide receivers in Woods’ place. Unfortunately, it’s a pretty underwhelming group of young players, especially given that the Titans don’t have any good veteran options either.

Second year wide receiver Treylon Burks has by far the most upside of the group, as the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Burks didn’t play much as a rookie, in part due to injury, but he still had a 33/444/1 slash line in limited action and averaged 1.75 yards per route run. If he can stay healthier and take a step forward in year two, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue being that efficient in a much larger workload. He’s a projection to a larger role and could be a little overmatched as a de facto #1 wide receiver, but the Titans don’t have a better option and he has a lot of upside.

The rest of the Titans’ options are underwhelming. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine saw significant action last season, but the 2020 undrafted free agent averaged just 0.95 yards per route run, after averaging 1.26 yards per route run in limited action in his career prior to last season. He probably shouldn’t continue being a significant contributor after that performance, but the Titans probably don’t have a choice and he could be as high as their #2 wide receiver, given their lack of other options.

Kyle Phillips is another second year receiver, but the 5th round pick saw just 64 snaps as a rookie and is a complete projection to a larger role. Tennessee-Martin’s Colton Dowell was a 7th round pick in this year’s draft, but will almost definitely be overmatched in a larger role as a rookie. Racey McMath went in the 6th round in 2021, but has played just 171 snaps in two seasons in the league and doesn’t look like a realistic option for significant playing time.

The one veteran the Titans added to this group this off-season was Chris Moore, but the 48/548/2 slash line he had last season was a career best for the 7-year veteran, who has averaged just 1.08 yards per route run for his career and now heads into his age 30 season. Aside from a potential breakout year from Treylon Burks, there is not much to be excited about at the wide receiver position in Tennessee.

The Titans also let veteran tight end Austin Hooper walk in free agency. He wasn’t bad with a 41/444/2 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, but the Titans want to give more playing time to 2022 4th round pick Chigoziem Okonkwo, who flashed a lot of potential with a 32/450/3 slash line and a 2.61 yards per route run average in limited rookie year action. Okonkwo still has work to do as a blocker and he’s very unlikely to be as efficient as he was in 2022 in an expanded role, but he doesn’t have any real competition for the starting job and could easily be a big part of a passing game that is in desperate need of weapons.

With Hooper gone, free agent acquisition Trevon Wesco will probably be the #2 tight end, but he’s a blocking specialist with 8 career catches who has never played more than 214 snaps in a season so, even as a backup, he’s an underwhelming option. The Titans also added Cincinnati’s Josh Whyle in the 5th round of this year’s draft and he at least gives them some passing game upside that Wesco doesn’t, but he’s not much of a blocker and, even as a receiver he is raw, so he probably won’t have much of a role as a rookie unless Okonkwo gets hurt, in which case he would almost definitely be a significant downgrade. This is a very unproven and underwhelming group, without much upside beyond Burks and Okonkwo, who are both second year players who only saw part-time roles as rookies.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Another player the Titans could have moved on from this off-season but didn’t is running back Derrick Henry. Henry has been one of the best players in the league at his position for years, but he’s getting around the age (age 29 season) where even elite running backs start to drop off quickly and the Titans would have saved 11 million and likely received a high draft pick in return if they traded him, so it would make sense that the rebuilding Titans at least considered moving on from him this off-season.

However, the Titans likely viewed Henry as too valuable to move and will bring him back to once again handle the vast majority of the touches in this backfield. In 2022, Henry turned 349 carries (most in the NFL) into 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns, his third season with over 300 carries over the past four seasons, with the exception being 2021, when he missed seven games due to injury and was on a 300+ carry pace before getting hurt. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. The Titans used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Tulane’s Tyjae Spears, with an eye on the future beyond Henry, but he’s unlikely to significantly cut into Henry’s workload in year one.

Henry’s YPC average has dropped from 5.16 YPC over his first three seasons as a starter to 4.36 YPC over the past two seasons, but that has more to do with the decreasing amount of talent around him on this offense than it has to do with Henry declining significantly. Still, Henry’s age is a concern, as age 29 running backs are 40% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than age 27 running backs, a steep drop off in a short period of time. Henry should be one of the best running backs in the league again this season, but he might not quite be his old dominant self and he might not find a ton of running room on this offense.

One area where Derrick Henry actually had a career best year in 2022 was in the passing game, as his 41 targets, 33 catches, and 398 yards were all career bests. The Titans still liked to spell Henry on some passing downs with veteran backup Dontrell Hillard last season, but Hillard is no longer with the team, leaving some passing game work up for grabs. It’s possible the Titans could give Henry more passing game work, but that might not be the best strategy because it would likely have to come at the expense of early down work, or they could risk overloading the aging running back.

The rookie Spears flashed some potential as a receiver in his final year in college (22/256/2), but he is probably too raw as a receiver for a significant passing down role as a rookie. The Titans also used a 4th round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a running back Hassan Haskins and, while it’s unlikely the Titans still view him as a potential successor to Henry, considering he played just 154 snaps as a rookie and then watched the Titans draft another running back this year, it’s still possible Haskins could see a bigger role in year two, especially in passing situations, with Hillard gone.

Regardless of how the backup touches are split up, this is still Derrick Henry’s backfield and he figures to see the vast majority of the touches again. The Titans probably want to avoid overloading him though, so young running backs Hassan Haskins and Tyjae Spears will likely be sprinkled in here and there to spell the aging veteran. Henry might not be what he used to be this season, but he should still be one of the best running backs in the league and the Titans’ depth situation isn’t bad either.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

As they did on offense, the Titans also had an above average amount of injuries on their defense last season and their edge defender group was as affected as any position group, with expected top edge defender Harold Landry going down for the year before the season even started and replacement starter Bud Dupree limited to 453 mediocre snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Dupree is no longer with the team, with the Titans understandably wanting to save 17 million by moving on from the injury prone veteran, but Landry will return for 2023, which should be a big boost for this position group, assuming Landry is something resembling full strength.

A second round pick in 2018, Landry was one of the most durable players in the league before the injury, only missing one other game back in his rookie season, while playing snap counts of 953, 1,050, and 981 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively, which were among the league leaders in snaps played by an edge defender in all three seasons. He hasn’t always been the most efficient player with his high snap counts and he may benefit from playing more of a rotational role, as his 10.2% career pressure rate is about average and his PFF grades have been in the 60s in all four healthy seasons, but he does have 31 sacks and 38 quarterback hits across those four seasons, so he has a good amount of production, even if you’d expect more out of someone who hardly ever came off the field. It’ll be interesting to see how much he plays in his return and if he becomes more efficient in a smaller role.

Regardless of his role, Landry’s return will be a welcome one for this group as his primary replacements Bud Dupree (58.2 PFF grade), Mario Edwards (56.0 PFF grade), and Rashad Weaver (60.6 PFF grade) were all mediocre at best. Edwards is also no longer with the team, which could be addition by subtraction, leaving Landry, Weaver, free agent acquisition Arden Key, and top holdover Denico Autry as their primary options on the edge. Weaver was mediocre last season, but it’s possible the 2021 4th round pick could be better in his third year in the league in 2023, especially if he plays a smaller snap count (640 snaps in 2022) in what looks like it will be a better group than a year ago.

Landry’s return is part of why this group should be better in 2023, but Arden Key could prove to be a smart signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal as well. He’s mostly a rotational option, having not played more than 500 snaps in a season since his rookie year in 2018 when he struggled, but he has received grades of 69.5 and 81.3 from PFF over the past two seasons respectively on snap counts of 375 and 475, while totaling 11 sacks, 27 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in his limited role. The former third round pick has been a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s always had a lot of upside and he is only in his age 27 season, so has a good chance to continue being an efficient pass rush option in a situational, rotational role for the third straight season, now in his new home in Tennessee.

Denico Autry (531 snaps) was the best of the bunch last season and could still be the best of the bunch even with Landry returning and Key being added. He probably won’t be as good as he was a year ago though, in part because of how good he was last season, with a 82.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in just 12 games, but also because he’s now going into his age 33 season.

Autry has been a reliable player for a long time and has received average or better grades from PFF in six straight seasons, but prior to last season he had never received a grade higher than 72.9 and it’s unlikely that he’ll repeat the best season of his career again in his 10th season in the league in 2023. He should still be an above average option, assuming he doesn’t suddenly drop off a cliff at his age, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as good as he was a year ago. Even still, he could be the best of a group that lacks a high upside overall, but that should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Titans also lost interior defenders Kevin Strong (305 snaps) and DeMarcus Walker (427 snaps) this off-season. Strong was mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade in his limited action, so he won’t really be missed, but Walker played at a pretty high level with a 72.8 PFF grade, especially excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. The Titans also didn’t do much to replace them, only adding veteran journeyman Jaleel Johnson in free agency, even though he’s never received even an average grade for a season on PFF in 6 seasons in the league, on an average of just 311 snaps per season, with a 43.6 PFF grade on 181 snaps in 2023.

With no other reserve options on this roster with any experience and no draft picks used on the position, Johnson will likely be one of the top reserves along with holdover Naquan Jones, who played just 156 snaps last season and received a 46.5 PFF grade, after the 2021 undrafted free agent received a 44.3 grade on 328 snaps as a rookie. He and Jones are very underwhelming reserve options who would almost definitely be major liabilities if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. Even as rotational reserves, they could easily be overmatched given their histories of poor play.

Fortunately, Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart return as the starters, after both fared well with PFF grades of 81.1 and 73.1 respectively on snap counts of 840 and 520 respectively in 2022. For Simmons, that was no surprise, as the 2019 first round pick broke out as one of the better players in the league at his position in his second year in the league in 2020 and has posted grades of 83.6, 71.9, and 81.1 respectively over the past three seasons since, on snap counts of 841, 933, and 840 respectively. Also a talented run defender, Simmons excels as a pass rusher with 19 sacks, 26 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate over the past three seasons and, still in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, perhaps even more if he has further untapped upside.

For Tart, last year’s strong performance was a big surprise, after the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled with PFF grades of 48.7 and 59.2 respectively on 155 snaps and 344 snaps respectively in the first two seasons of his career. Tart was always a decent run stopper, but improved in that aspect last season and especially took a step forward as a pass rusher, finishing with 1.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, after just a 3.8% pressure rate in his first two seasons in the league combined, which allowed him to stay on the field for more snaps. It’s possible Tart could prove to be a one-year wonder and even if he doesn’t, he might not be as good again in 2023 as he was in 2022, but he still has a good chance to remain at least a solid starting option, probably on an even bigger snap count given their lack of depth. Simmons and Tart are an above average starting duo, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade and would be a serious problem if Simmons or Tart missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker Zach Cunningham is yet another player who missed significant time with injury last season who is no longer on the roster at all, with the Titans moving on from Cunningham to save 11.25 million after an injury plagued season in which he played just 205 middling snaps in 6 games. A bigger loss will be free agent departed David Long, who received a 76.2 PFF grade in 740 snaps in 12 games last season, making him PFF’s 14th highest ranked off ball linebacker in the league. Also gone is veteran Dylan Cole, but he received just a 53.3 grade from PFF on 439 snaps so he won’t be missed too much.

In place of Long, Cole, and Cunningham, the Titans signed veterans Azeez Al-Shaair and Ben Niemann and will likely give more playing time to 2021 3rd round pick Monty Rice, who was decent on 366 snaps last season after struggling on 179 snaps as a rookie the year prior. He could take a step forward in year three and will compete for one of two starting roles with the two veteran free agent additions Al-Shaair and Niemann.

Al-Shaair is the more promising of the two additions, coming over from the 49ers on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. Al-Shaair was often buried on the depth chart in San Francisco behind Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, arguably the best linebacker duo in the league, so he only played 305 snaps in 2020 and 313 snaps in 2022, but he did see 730 snaps in 2021 and he has received PFF grades of 61.0, 64.8, and 67.8 over the past three seasons respectively, so he should be at least a decent starting job for the Titans. Niemann, meanwhile, was signed for close to the minimum and, while he’s played an average of 478 snaps per season over the past four seasons, he’s never been more than a middling option. Al-Shaair is the heavy favorite to win at least one of the starting jobs, with Rice and Niemann perhaps splitting snaps at the other spot. It’s an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Injuries affected the Titans’ secondary significantly last season as well. Cornerback Elijah Molden and Caleb Farley were supposed to play significant roles, but were limited to 82 snaps in 2 games and 104 snaps in 5 games respectively by injury, while starter Kristian Fulton also missed 6 games with injury as well. With their lack of cornerback depth, the Titans frequently used three safeties in sub packages, with Amani Hooker playing more slot cornerback than safety, but he struggled by his standards out of position, falling from a 83.3 PFF grade as a more of a traditional safety in 2021 to 63.3 last season, while also missing 8 games of his own with injury, which further hurt this secondary.

With what should be a healthier cornerback group, Hooker is expected to move back to safety, which will be necessary because Andrew Adams (726 snaps) and Josh Kalu (494 snaps), who saw significant action at safety last season with Hooker hurt and playing out of position, are no longer with the team. Both played pretty well in their limited action, receiving PFF grades of 70.9 and 68.0 respectively, and the Titans are left without any other experienced safeties behind Hooker and fellow starter Kevin Byard, so they will desperately need them to both stay healthy all year.

If Hooker stays healthy, he has a good chance to bounce back now in a more natural position for him, but he is somewhat of a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did in 2021, with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his other three seasons in the league, so there’s a good chance he doesn’t bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, even if he should remain an above average option, still in his prime in his age 25 season.

Byard, meanwhile, is no one-year wonder, with his 79.5 PFF grade in 2022 being his 5th season above 75 in the past six seasons, with his best years coming with grades of 87.0, 87.9, and 90.2 in 2017, 2018, and 2021 respectively. Byard is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline this season, but, even at less than his best, he should remain at least an above average starter and he could easily remain one of the best players in the league at his position, as he has been for years. Byard and Hooker could be one of the best safeties duos in the league in 2023 and they arguably were the best in 2021, when they both finished in the top-5 on PFF, but depth is a significant concern if either player gets hurt.

The Titans’ depth is better at cornerback than safety, but they have several players coming off injury plagued seasons and they are a very young group overall. The only cornerback the Titans have who isn’t on a rookie deal is free agent acquisition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who signed a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal for his 5th season in the league in 2023, coming over from Tampa Bay, with whom he was a 2nd round pick in 2019. Murphy-Bunting has mostly been a starter in his career, starting 36 of 53 games played in four seasons in the league, but injuries have been a big problem for him the past two seasons, missing 16 of a possible 34 games, and his play has been inconsistent overall. After a 66.2 PFF grade on 42.9 snaps per game as a rookie, Murphy-Bunting saw his snap counts increase to 55.3 per game and 51.3 per game in 2020 and 2021, but also saw his PFF grade fall to 55.9 and 61.7 respectively. That grade jumped to 76.6 in 2022 on 430 snaps in 9 games and he’s still only in his age 26 season, so he has some potential if he can stay healthy and permanently turn the corner as a player, but he also comes with a significant history of injury and inconsistency.

Fulton is second the most experienced of the bunch, with 26 starts since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020, including 24 over the past two seasons, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 66.1 and 63.8 over the past two seasons respectively and injuries have prevented him from ever playing more than 13 games in a season. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped potential if he can stay healthy, but I wouldn’t expect him to be more than a solid starter and he could easily miss more time with injury. Caleb Farley is the highest drafted of the bunch, selected in the first round in 2021, but injuries have limited him to 164 snaps total in two seasons in the league and he’s struggled mightily even when on the field, receiving PFF grades of 45.7 and 42.5. Farley is still young, but injuries were a concern with him going into the draft and it’s very possible he never stays healthy enough to develop into the cornerback he was expected to be when the Titans drafted him in the first round. He won’t be guaranteed a starting job.

Elijah Molden was the lowest drafted of the bunch, but the 2021 3rd round pick had a solid rookie year with a PFF of 64.1 on 632 snaps, before hardly playing due to injury last season. The 5-10 192 pounder is a slot specialist who probably isn’t a realistic candidate to start outside, but he should have the inside track to be the starter on the slot if he can stay healthy in 2023. The only Titans cornerback to stay healthy last season was Roger McCreary, a rookie second round pick who made all 17 starts. McCreary wasn’t great with a 62.6 PFF grade, but he could easily take a step forward in year two and should remain a starter, which he almost definitely will.

The Titans should be healthier at cornerback than a year ago and have a pretty deep group when healthy, even if they aren’t very experienced, but they will need them to all stay healthy because the Titans don’t have the safety depth that they had last season to help mask their lack of cornerback depth. The Titans have a very talented safety duo if they both stay healthy and could have a solid cornerback group if they all stay healthy, but their lack of safety depth and their lack of cornerback experience hurt their overall grade in this position group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Titans were one of the most injury plagued teams in the league last season and are just a season removed from being the #1 overall seed in the AFC with a 12-5 record, but a lot of the players who missed time with injury last season are no longer on the team, meaning the Titans won’t be getting as much help from players returning from injury as you would expect from a team that had the third most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season.

The Titans also weren’t nearly as good as their 12-5 record in 2021 and their regression to 7-10 was not all that surprising, with their DVOA actually only decreasing slightly in 2022, ranking 23rd after ranking 20th in 2021. On top of that, the Titans don’t have the same team as 2021, with several key players missing, and, overall, they appear to have a below average roster. They’ll benefit from playing in a weak division, but they also play in by far the tougher of the two conferences, so winning their division is their only real path to the post-season and they should still be significantly behind the reigning division champion Jaguars, so it’s very likely the Titans finish out of the post-season picture and quite possibly finish below .500 again. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 2nd in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 6, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

For years, the Colts had consistent high level quarterback play. They selected Peyton Manning #1 overall in 1998 and he started every game through 2010, before a 2011 neck injury knocked him out for the year, tanking the Colts and allowing them to select Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in 2012, giving the Colts arguably the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck started every game in his first three seasons in the league and the Colts seemed set for the future. However, Luck then missed 26 games with injury over the next four seasons combined, leading to Luck’s early retirement following the 2018 season.

Since then, the Colts have had one of the most in flux quarterback positions in the league. Backup Jacoby Brissett took over for Luck in 2019, but he was mediocre and was upgraded with Philip Rivers, who the Colts signed for the 2020 season. Rivers wasn’t bad and led the Colts to the playoffs, but they lost in the first round and Rivers retired after the season. That left the Colts to trade for Carson Wentz as a potential long-term quarterback option, but he was mediocre in his first season with the Colts in 2021 and ended up getting traded and replaced by another veteran Matt Ryan.

At first glance, the move to replace Wentz with Ryan seemed like a good one. The Colts received two third round picks from Washington in exchange for Wentz and only had to send one third rounder to the Falcons to acquire Ryan, a much more consistent option who actually had a cheaper salary. The one downside with Ryan was his age, which proved to be a big problem, as Ryan dropped off quickly in what was his age 37 season. Wentz didn’t have a better year with Washington so the Colts still made the right decision to move on from him, but Ryan struggled for most of the year and was benched on several occasions. In total, he completed 67.0% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a 83.9 QB rating that was his lowest since his second season in the league in 2009.

As much as Ryan struggled, he was actually the Colts best quarterback option by far last season, as the quarterbacks he was benched for, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles, finished the year with QB ratings of 76.1 and 34.3 respectively and went 0-5 in their five starts, as opposed to 4-7-1 for Ryan. However, even with him being the best quarterback on their roster, the Colts couldn’t justify bringing back Matt Ryan at a 29.25 million dollar salary for 2023, cutting him this off-season to get out of the 17.25 million non-guaranteed portion of that salary.

Foles was not retained this off-season, while Ehlinger is expected to be no higher than the third quarterback. The Colts’ disastrous 4-12-1 season last year got them the 4th overall pick, which they used on Florida’s Anthony Richardson to be their quarterback of the future, and they also signed veteran Gardner Minshew in free agency, who can either be a high end backup or a low end stopgap starter if Richardson isn’t ready to start at the beginning of the season.

There’s a good chance that Richardson not being ready to start week one proves to be the case. Richardson comes into the league with a massive upside, with a huge arm and unparalleled athletic ability for his size, but he was underwhelming in his lone season as a college starter and is incredibly raw, especially as a passer. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has been decent as a starter in his career, with a 93.1 QB rating in 24 starts in four seasons in the league, so it won’t be easy for Richardson to beat him out. Richardson will be given every chance to win the job and, even if Minshew wins the job for week one, he likely won’t keep it for long, but Richardson is more likely than not to struggle when he does eventually get into the starting lineup. Even if he develops into a high level quarterback long-term, there are likely to be a lot of growing pains in year one.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to poor quarterback play, part of the reason for the Colts’ disappointing 2022 season was injuries. They had the 7th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, but those injuries seemed to disproportionately affect their most important players. On offense, the big injury was Jonathan Taylor, who was the best running back in the league in 2021, rushing for a leading league 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC), but who was limited to just 4.48 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries last season in an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games and was limited in several others.

Running backs suffer injuries more than any other position and it’s very uncommon for running backs to ever repeat the kind of season Taylor had in 2021, but the 2020 2nd round pick also rushed for 5.04 YPC and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries as a rookie and, only going into his age 24 season, he has a great chance to bounce back and be one of the best running backs in the league again in 2023, even if he’s unlikely to be as dominant as he was in 2021 again. In Taylor’s absence last season, Zack Moss and Deon Johnson were the Colts’ primary running backs, ranking 2nd and 3rd on the team with 76 carries and 68 carries respectively. Both players will return to the team for 2023 and Northwestern’s Evan Hull was added in the 5th round of the draft.

Moss was the better of the two backs last season, averaging 4.80 YPC to Jackson’s 3.47, and by the end of the season he cemented himself as a true lead back, with 69 of his carries in the final four games of the season. Moss had never shown much in his career prior to being acquired by the Colts mid-season in a trade last season, averaging just 4.08 YPC on 225 carries in two and a half seasons in the league, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and could remain at least a solid #2 running back option, especially if he only has to see a few carries per game behind a healthy Jonathan Taylor.

Jackson was a much less effective runner, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career, but he did average 1.47 yards per route run, while Moss averaged 0.22 yards per route run and has just a 0.78 yards per route run average for his career, so he has a good chance to earn a role as a passing down back. Jonathan Taylor isn’t a great receiver, with a 1.05 yards per route run average for his career, so they’ll probably want to spell him on some passing down snaps to keep him fresh, which creates a role for Jackson. If he’s healthy, Taylor should be among the league leaders in carries and rushing yards and the Colts have decent depth options as well.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line used to be a strength of the team, with a starting five that was one of the best of the league and that stayed together for years. However, left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired after the 2020 season, while right guard Matt Glowinski left as a free agent following the 2021 season, leaving their offensive line in much worse shape for 2022. Rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann was pretty solid in 11 starts in year one (73.3 PFF grade) and he has a good chance to keep that up in year two in 2023, but they really struggled to replace Glowinski last season.

Will Fries (9 starts) and Danny Pinter (3 starts) had PFF grades of just 58.4 and 44.7 respectively and their only even average starting right guard was Braden Smith, the talented right tackle who the Colts kicked inside for a couple starts. Smith is a versatile player, but he is more valuable at right tackle and his replacement at right tackle was Matt Pryor, who made 9 starts total last season and finished with a 44.9 PFF grade. The Colts also didn’t do anything to upgrade the right guard position this off-season, leaving Fries and Pinter in competition for the role, assuming Smith stays outside.

Fries and Pinter were drafted in the 7th round in 2021 and the 5th round in 2020 respectively and made 0 and 4 career starts respectively prior to last season, so it’s unlikely either one suddenly breaks out as even an average starter. The Colts did add BYU offensive tackle Blake Freeland in the 4th round of the draft and he could be an upgrade over Matt Pryor, who is no longer with the team, but he would likely struggle if forced into action at right tackle, in the case that Braden Smith moves back to guard. Smith has received grades of 73.3, 79.8, 80.1, 80.6, and 75.5 from PFF in the five seasons of his career respectively, since going in the 2nd round in 2018, and he’ll play at a high level regardless of where he plays, but he’s more valuable at right tackle. Regardless of where he plays, the Colts figure to continue having at least one hole in the starting lineup.

Another problem for the Colts on the offensive line last season was a substandard year from left guard Quenton Nelson. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades of 81.6, 91.2, and 87.5 in his first three seasons in the league, but that fell to 69.1 in an injury plagued 2021 season and didn’t improve in a healthier 2022, when he had a career worst 68.4 PFF grade. Nelson is only in his age 27 season and is theoretically still in the prime of his career, but he hasn’t shown his top form in two seasons and at this point it might be unrealistic to expect him to bounce all the way back in 2023. I would expect him to be better in 2023 than he was in 2021 and 2022, but not as good as he used to be.

Ryan Kelly also hasn’t shown his top form in a few seasons, as the 2016 first round pick surpassed a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but has followed those grades up with 68.0, 56.9, and 64.3 over the past three seasons. Kelly now goes into his age 30 season and he’s pretty banged up in his career, missing 17 games in 7 seasons in the league, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him.

Kelly should still remain at least a capable starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further and he probably doesn’t have a huge upside at this stage of his career. This offensive line isn’t what it used to be and it will have at least one big position of weakness on the right side, but it’s not a bad offensive line either and they could be better than a year ago if they get a bounce back year from Nelson and if the young left tackle Raimann continues his above average play into year two.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ receiving corps was also a problem last season, although that was not a surprise, as their receiving corps were a problem the year before as well. Michael Pittman remained as the #1 receiver and the 2020 2nd round pick has posted slash lines of 88/1082/6 and 99/925/4 respectively in that role over the past two seasons, but those have come on target totals of 129 (16th in the NFL) and 141 (12th in the NFL). Quarterback play has been part of the problem and Pittman is a talented player who is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s probably more of a high end #2 receiver than someone who is a true #1, as evidenced by his poor efficiency in that role over the past two seasons.

Unfortunately, Pittman will have to remain the #1 receiver for lack of a better option, with the Colts not doing anything to significantly improve this group this off-season. In fact, the Colts actually lost their #2 receiver from a year ago Parris Campbell, who was decent if unspectacular with a 63/623/3 slash line on 91 targets. The Colts won’t miss Campbell too much though, as they have 2022 2nd round pick Alec Pierce in line for a bigger role in year two and they also signed veteran Isaiah McKenzie and used a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Josh Downs to compete for the #3 receiver job.

Pierce was the #3 receiver last year (41/593/2 on 78 targets) and he was mediocre with a 1.24 yards per route run average, but he has the talent to be better in a bigger role in year two, although that’s not a guarantee. McKenzie, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a return man and a situational depth receiver (his 42/423/4 slash line last year was a career high), but he has a decent 1.31 yards per route run average over the past three seasons combined (0.99 over his first three seasons combined). The Colts are probably hoping the rookie Downs can beat the veteran McKenzie out for the 3rd receiver job, but Downs could be overmatched in year one and McKenzie figures to at least have somewhat of a role for this team even if he doesn’t end up beating out Downs.

The Colts also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season. Mo Alie-Cox (584 snaps), Kylen Granson (407 snaps), and Jelani Woods (333 snaps) all saw action, but none were that productive, finishing with slash lines of 19/189/3, 31/302/0, and 25/312/3 respectively. The Colts didn’t add to this group this off-season, so they will be counting on getting more out of these three in 2023. Alie-Cox has never been much more than a blocking specialist, averaging a decent 1.32 yards per route run in limited passing game action, but not surpassing a 31/394/2 slash line in any of his six seasons in the league, and, now going into his age 30 season, it’s very unlikely he has any untapped potential, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, at best.

Granson was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has averages of just 1.13 yards per route run and 1.31 yards per route run thus far in his career and, while he could have further untapped potential, he’s unlikely to ever break out as a starting caliber tight end. Woods has by far the most upside of the bunch, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of potential with an impressive 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie.

Woods struggled as a blocker and will probably need to improve in that aspect to become a true starter for this team, but, at the very least, he should get more pass game opportunities in year two, after proving his upside in year one. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a mini breakout year in the first extended playing time of his career. He’s one of a couple promising young pass catchers the Colts have, but they’re still unlikely to be significantly better in the receiving corps than they were a year ago, meaning this is likely to remain a position of weakness overall.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

While the Colts’ offense was a huge problem in 2022, finishing dead last in offensive DVOA, their defense was actually not bad, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA. The strength of this defense was probably their interior defenders, led by arguably their best defensive player, DeForest Buckner. A first round pick in 2016, Buckner quickly developed into one of the best players in the league with the 49ers, posting grades of 71.6, 81.3, 79.3, and 78.8 in his first four seasons in the league respectively.

Unable to keep all of their talented players long-term, the 49ers sent Buckner to the Colts for a first round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Colts also gave Buckner a 4-year, 84 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, which makes him still the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league, so they paid a steep price for him in total, between the extension and the draft compensation that they sent to the 49ers, but it’s probably been worth it, as Buckner has continued his high level play with the Colts, posting grades of 89.7, 71.9, and 82.3 over the past three seasons respectively

Buckner is also still only in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect any significant drop off yet.

He isn’t bad against the run, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 53 sacks, 95 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate for his career, including 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate last season. He’s also remarkably durable, missing just two games in 7 years in the league, despite playing an average of 53.6 snaps per game as a true every down defensive lineman. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Their other starting interior defender Grover Stewart isn’t as good as Buckner, but he’s an above average starter in his own right.

The 6-4 315 pound Stewart is at his best against the run, earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense in all six seasons in the league, but the 2017 4th round pick has developed into an every down player and a decent pass rusher as well, averaging 667 snaps per season over the past four seasons, while not missing a game due to injury and totaling 8.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over that stretch. Overall, he’s received grades from PFF of 65.8, 68.1, 72.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season and should start to decline soon, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and could easily remain a solid starter for at least another season. He’s an unspectacular player, but his run defense makes him a good complement to Buckner, who is a dominant pass rusher.

Depth isn’t as important to the Colts in this position group because Buckner and Stewart play every down and rarely get hurt, but the Colts still did well to improve their depth this off-season, after Eric Johnson (47.4 PFF grade in 127 snaps) and Byron Cowart (30.4 PFF grade in 229 snaps) struggled mightily in that role last season. Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore was added in the 4th round of the draft and, while he’s probably too raw to make a big impact as a rookie, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as a reserve.

The Colts also added veteran Taven Bryan in free agency and, while he has been middling at best on an average of 447 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, he should be a good depth option for this team in a rotational role. Eric Johnson is also still on the roster and the 2022 5th round pick could be better in year two, but he won’t be guaranteed a role in what is a deeper position group than a year ago. This is a strong position group overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Colts leader in sacks a year ago was edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who had 9.5, along with 11 quarterback hits and a 10.1% pressure rate. Ngakoue is no longer with the team, but, despite his production, he won’t really be missed, as Ngakoue struggled so much against the run last season that he actually ended up with a 51.4 PFF grade overall, despite his pass rush production. Ngakoue remains unsigned as of this writing, suggesting the rest of the league isn’t fooled by his sack total either.

Ngakoue’s replacement Samson Ebukam is an underwhelming player, but he’s a better all around player and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ngakoue if he plays like he has the past two seasons, receiving PFF grades of 66.8 and 69.1 on snap counts of 554 and 559 respectively, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over the two seasons combined. The 2017 4th round is an unspectacular option who has never finished with a PFF grade higher than last season’s 69.1 for a season, but he’s only once been below 63 for a season, so he’s a consistently decent option.

Ebukam might not play the 733 snaps in 15 games that Ngakoue played last season, but Ngakoue was overall a liability across those snaps and the Colts could get more out of the rest of their edge defenders, even if it’s the same group as a year ago. Kwity Paye is a third year player who could easily have the best year of his career if he can stay healthy. The 2021 1st round pick has been solid if unspectacular thus far through two seasons in his career, posting PFF grades of 69.6 in both seasons, but missing seven games between the two seasons. He still has the upside to be better going forward and, even if he isn’t, the Colts would still benefit from having him on the field more, after he was limited to 547 snaps in 12 games last season.

Dayo Odeyingbo is another third year player who could take a step forward in 2023. A second round pick who could have gone in the first if not for injuries, Odeyingbo didn’t play much in an injury plagued rookie season, seeing just 173 snaps, but that increased to 519 last season as he stayed healthy for all 17 games. Odeyingbo has been solid if unspectacular thus far in his career, posting grades of 61.4 and 62.6, but he has the potential to be better in his third season in the league in 2023, along with Paye.

The Colts also could get a healthier year out of reserve edge defender Tyquan Lewis, after he was limited to 273 snaps in 7 games last season, although based on his history of injuries, that’s not a guarantee, as Lewis has missed at least 7 games in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, missing 34 total. Lewis was a 2nd round pick back in 2018, but, in part due to injuries, he’s never developed into even a solid rotational player, posting grades higher than 60 on PFF in just two seasons in his career, with a 56.3 PFF grade in 2022. Even if he’s healthier in 2023, he’s unlikely to make a huge impact in a positive way.

One thing Lewis does bring to the table is versatility, as the 6-3 277 pounder has the size to line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, but he’s an unspectacular player regardless of where he lines up. This isn’t a bad position group and they could easily be better than a year ago with Paye and Odeyingbo going into their third seasons in the league, with Ebukam replacing Ngakoue, and with Lewis possibly being healthier, but this group also lacks a high upside and doesn’t have any high end players.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts had four defensive players play more than 500 snaps and finish with a grade higher than 70 on PFF last season and three of them left this off-season (DeForest Buckner is the exception), but, despite that, the Colts have a good chance to remain a decent defense in 2023. The biggest reason for that is the expected return of every down linebacker Shaq Leonard, who missed all but 74 mediocre snaps in an injury plagued 2022 season and whose return could offset the absence of other key players who departed this off-season.

That’s because Leonard is one of the best players in the league at his position when healthy, finishing 6th, 7th, 10th, and 7th among off ball linebackers on PFF in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while posting grades of 81.6, 78.7, 72.6, and 79.0 respectively. Leonard is coming off of a major injury, but he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he’s still theoretically in his prime and, if healthy, he has a great chance to bounce back at least close to his old form, which would be a huge boost for this defense.

Leonard’s return will be especially important to this defense because one of the key players the Colts lost this off-season was linebacker Bobby Okereke, who had a 73.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in Leonard’s absence last season, before signing with the Giants this off-season. Okereke being gone means the Colts will continue giving a significant role to Zaire Franklin, even with Leonard back. Franklin actually led this position group with 1,136 snaps played last season, coming off the field on defense just five times all season, but he posted a mediocre 57.0 PFF grade in the first extended action of his career and the 2018 7th round pick is likely to be mediocre again in a significant role in 2023.

The Colts also could give a bigger role to EJ Speed this season, after re-signing him to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to keep him out of free agency this off-season. Speed was just a 5th round pick by the Colts in 2019 and he played just 181 snaps in his first three seasons in the league combined, but he played 316 snaps in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential, even if in very limited action, finishing with a 78.4 PFF grade.

Speed is still unproven and a projection to a larger role and he probably wouldn’t be that efficient again if given more playing time, but his contract suggests the Colts at least expect him to have somewhat of a role, even as just the 3rd linebacker behind Leonard and Franklin. This is a strong group led by Shaq Leonard, who is one of the best off ball linebackers in the league when healthy and whose return should more than make up for the loss of Bobby Okereke, but the rest of this group is still uncertain, with Franklin being a mediocre option and Speed still being highly inexperienced.

Grade: A-

Secondary

One of the key players the Colts lost on defense this off-season is safety Rodney McLeod, who finished the 2022 season with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,034 snaps. That performance kind of came out of nowhere though, as it was a career best grade for the 11-year veteran and, with McLeod now going into his age 33 season, it was understandable they moved on from him this off-season, but he’ll still be missed. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas will likely be the two starting safeties in 2023 with McLeod gone and both saw significant action (720 snaps each) last season with the Colts frequently using three safeties in sub packages, but Blackmon was middling with a 62.3 PFF grade, while Thomas struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade, so it’s unlikely that either one is as good in 2023 as McLeod was in 2022.

Blackmon was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has made 31 starts in three seasons in the league, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 60.8, 60.7, and 62.3, and durability has been an issue for him, costing him 15 games in three seasons in the league. He theoretically has the upside to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could easily miss more time with injury even if he does take a step forward. Thomas, meanwhile, was just a 7th round rookie in 2022, so his struggles were predictable and he could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could face competition for his job from fellow second year player, Nick Cross.

Cross was a higher draft pick, selected in the third round, and could have more upside than Thomas long-term as a result, but he played just 122 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, spending most of the year behind the much lower drafted Thomas on the depth chart, so he’s far from a guarantee to be an upgrade even if he does win the starting job. The Colts also added California’s Daniel Scott in the 5th round of this year’s draft, but he will almost definitely spend his rookie year as a reserve barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Stephon Gilmore is also a big loss from this defense in 2022, as he finished the year with a 79.1 PFF grade on 1,064 snaps as the Colts’ top cornerback. Gilmore was owed 10 million for his age 33 season in 2023, so it made sense for the Colts, who are in something of a rebuild, to move on from him this off-season, but they only got a 5th round pick from the Cowboys in return for him and they will definitely miss him in the short-term.

In Gilmore’s absence, the Colts will hope that 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers can continue his impressive play in limited action from the past two seasons into an every down starting role, after earning a 70.7 PFF grade on 525 snaps in 2021 and a 82.1 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 2022. He’s a projection to that larger role and probably won’t be as efficient as an every down player as he was as a part-time player, but he could still easily be an above average starting option for them. The Colts also added Kansas State’s Julius Brents in the second round of the draft to help them replace Gilmore and he figures to have a significant role in year one, at least playing in sub packages with Rodgers and veteran Kenny Moore.

Moore used to be an above average starter, earning PFF grades of 71.3, 75.5, and 74.8 on 911 snaps, 631 snaps, and 952 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, he’s fallen off in a big way with grades of 66.6 and 55.7 respectively on snap counts of 1,062 and 774 over the past two seasons. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he isn’t totally over the hill, but after two down years, it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point. That doesn’t mean he can’t be better in 2023 than he was in 2022, which was a career worst year, in part due to injuries, but he is unlikely to be more than an average starter in 2023. This secondary isn’t bad, but it will be very hard for them to be as good as a year ago without Stephon Gilmore and Rodney McLeod.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

By default, the Colts should be better on offense this year than they were a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball and they will be quarterbacked by the very raw Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, their defense lost a few key players in free agency this off-season and, while Shaq Leonard is expected back from injury, they are pretty top heavy on defense behind Leonard and Buckner and would be in trouble on that side of the ball if they lost either one to injury for an extended period of time. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South

Los Angeles Rams 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 2, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams won the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, after finishing the regular season with a 12-5 record and the 5th highest DVOA in the league, but repeating was always going to be difficult for them. Not only are repeat champions rare, with none in the last two decades or so, the Rams went all in for a few years to try to win a Super Bowl, which worked out, but it left them with very little long-term flexibility. During the 2022 off-season, the Rams had no choice but to move on from several key contributors for financial reasons and, not having their own first round pick for the 6th straight year, they didn’t have much draft capital to rebuild their roster either.

All that being said, I don’t think anyone expected what happened to the Rams in 2022. Not only did they miss the key contributors they lost from their 2021 team, but they also had arguably the worst injury luck in the league, which diminished this team significantly and led to them finishing just 5-12, the worst record ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. In terms of adjusted games lost, the Rams had the second most in the NFL and, if you take into account that those injuries disproportionately affected their most important players, the Rams were probably impacted by injuries more than any other team in the league last season.

It’s easy to see how the Rams could be significantly better in 2023 with better health. Not only does adjusted games lost as a stat tend to regress to the mean, but the Rams were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league for years prior to last season, ranking in the top-10 in fewest adjusted games lost to injury in each of the previous six seasons. However, it’s not as easy as saying the Rams will be healthier this year so they’ll be back to being contenders. Not only did the Rams lose key contributors from this Super Bowl team last off-season, they lost even more this off-season and they were once again without their own first round pick, which was 6th overall as a result of the Rams’ struggles last season.

I’ll get into the differences between this team’s roster and their Super Bowl team’s roster later, but the Rams at least still have quarterback Matt Stafford, who completed 67.2% of his passes for an average of 8.13 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and earned a 80.7 grade from PFF. That was nothing new for Stafford, who had received a PFF of 77 or higher in each of his five previous seasons prior to 2021 as well, while completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 119 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions over that stretch.

However, there is reason to be concerned that Stafford might not play at his highest level again in 2023. Not only is he now heading into his age 35 season, but he’s coming off of a very disappointing 2022 campaign in which he received just a 67.0 PFF grade, his worst since 2015, and completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 6.89 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, a 87.4 QB rating that is his worst since 2014. Stafford also was limited to just nine starts by head and neck injuries that at one point left his long-term future somewhat in doubt.

It’s possible Stafford could return to form in 2023 and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but I think it’s more likely that his best days are behind him. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll struggle this year, as even at less than his best he can still be an above average starting quarterback, and he should play more games and be more effective than a year ago, but there’s more reason for concern with Stafford than there was two years ago.

Given Stafford’s age and recent injury history, backup quarterback could end up being an important position for the Rams this season. Last season, they tried three different options, with internal options Bryce Perkins (53.7 QB rating) and John Wolford (64.6 QB rating) both struggling, before veteran Baker Mayfield was claimed on waivers, giving the Rams a more reliable option down the stretch (86.4 QB rating). Mayfield is no longer with the team though and the only veteran option the Rams added this off-season was Brett Rypien, who has a 62.9 QB rating in three career starts in four seasons in the league, making him a very underwhelming option.

The Rams did add Stetson Bennett in the 4th round of the draft and are probably hoping he can beat out Rypien for the #2 quarterback job. Bennett would probably struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie, but he’s more NFL ready than most 4th round quarterbacks, so he might not be a bad option and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he developed into a capable backup long-term, even if he’s probably not a real candidate to be Stafford’s long-term successor. Either way, this team will obviously be in better shape if Stafford can stay healthy the whole year, even if he doesn’t play quite up to his usual standards.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Not only did the Rams lose Stafford for the year mid-season in 2022, but they also lost his top receiver Cooper Kupp for the year right around the same time, a devastating blow that left this offense completely anemic for the rest of the season. The Rams were 4-4 going into the week 10 game against the Cardinals in which Kupp got hurt and they wound up losing 8 of their final 9 games as a result of the injuries to Kupp and Stafford. Not only is Kupp one of the best wide receivers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 80.8, 92.3, and 86.3 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while averaging 2.53 yards per route run, but the Rams didn’t have another reliable pass catching option behind him on the depth chart, with Odell Beckham, the #2 wide receiver on their Super Bowl team not getting retained due to injuries of his own.

The Rams tried to replace Beckham with Allen Robinson, giving him a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, even though he struggled mightily in 2021, with a 38/410/1 slash line and 1.13 yards per route run, but that move proved to be a disaster, as Robinson did not return to form in his new home with the Rams, finishing with a 33/339/3 slash line and 0.93 yards per route run. This off-season, the Rams gave up on Robinson, sending him to the Steelers for a swap of late round picks and eating 10.25 million of his 15.25 million dollar guaranteed salary in the process.

Robinson wasn’t replaced though, so the Rams will once again be highly reliant on Cooper Kupp staying healthy, without another good wide receiver on this depth chart. Kupp should still be expected to be one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023, but he’s heading into his age 30 season and coming off of a major injury, so he might not be quite as good as he has been in recent years and, even if he is, the Rams’ lack of another good wide receiver will hurt this offense.

Van Jefferson and Bennett Skowronek are probably penciled in as the other starting wide receivers, but Jefferson hasn’t shown much in three seasons since the Rams selected him in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 1.38 yards per route run, while Skowronek is a 2021 7th round pick who averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in the first extended action of his career in 2022 in Kupp’s absence. The Rams also have 2021 2nd round pick Tutu Atwell and used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Puka Nacua, but Atwell has played just 318 snaps on offense in two seasons in the league and might be too small at 5-9 165 to be an every down wide receiver, while Nacua is probably too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie.

With Kupp missing about half the season, the Rams were led in targets by tight end Tyler Higbee, but he wasn’t efficient with those targets, turning 108 targets into a 72/620/3 slash line, an average of 5.74 yards per target. Higbee is a solid starting tight end who has received a grade of 60 or higher from PFF in six straight seasons, but he’s also averaged just 1.40 yards per route run for his career and shouldn’t be a huge part of their passing game. Without another good wide receiver behind Kupp on the depth chart, Higbee could end up finishing second on the team with targets, which would not be a good thing for this offense.

The Rams don’t use a lot of two tight end sets, even when Kupp was hurt last season, with #2 tight end Brycen Hopkins playing just 173 snaps. Hopkins has played just 234 snaps total since entering the league as a 4th round pick in 2020, but could remain the #2 tight end in this offense. His biggest competition will come from Hunter Long, a 2021 3rd round pick that the Rams acquired via trade this offense. Long played just 184 snaps in two seasons with the Dolphins and has shown very little, but the Rams seem to still believe in his upside and he could be better in his new home, still only in his third season in the league. Either way, the Rams backup tight end won’t have a big role in this passing game, which once again lacks a reliable #2 option after Cooper Kupp.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was also significantly worse in 2022 than 2021. They were already going to be worse heading into the season, after losing left tackle Andrew Whitworth (86.1 PFF grade in 2021) to retirement and right guard Austin Corbett (68.8 PFF grade in 2021) in free agency, but, making matters worse, they lost replacement left tackle Joe Noteboom, starting center Brian Allen, and left guard David Edwards to injuries that limited them to just 325 snaps, 373 snaps, and 230 snaps respectively in 2022.

Edwards wasn’t retained this off-season, meaning the Rams will be without three of their five starters from their 2021 offensive line even if they can stay healthier this season. The Rams did at least make upgrading their offensive line a priority this off-season, though they did so without much flexibility to improve this roster, using their first draft pick, 36th overall, on TCU’s Steve Avila, who ended up being their only selection in the top-70 picks.

Even as a rookie, Avila is likely to start, due to the lack of a better option. With David Edwards missing most of last season, the Rams top guards in terms of snaps played were Matt Skura (466 snaps), Alaric Jackson (422 snaps), Oday Aboushi (339 snaps), and Bobby Evans (314 snaps), but Skura, Aboushi, and Evans are no longer on the team and, while Jackson was decent with a 64.1 PFF grade, he’s a converted swing tackle who was only playing guard out of necessity and the Rams seem to prefer the 2021 undrafted free agent at tackle long-term.

It’s possible Jackson could compete for the other starting guard job out of necessity, as could Coleman Shelton, who mostly played center last season in the absence of Brian Allen, but who has the versatility to play any of the interior offensive line spots. However, Shelton earned just a 58.0 PFF grade in the first significant action of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career last season, so he would be an underwhelming option, and it seems more likely that the Rams will keep Jackson at tackle and start 2022 3rd round pick Logan Bruss at the other guard spot opposite Avila.

Bruss could have been a starter as a rookie and, after Edwards got hurt he almost definitely would have been, but he ended up missing his whole rookie season with injuries of his own. He still has the upside to develop into a solid starter long-term, but he’s completely inexperienced and, even if he does become a long-term starter, that doesn’t mean he won’t have growing pains in his first year in that role. Bruss and Avila have upside at the guard position, which is more than you could say about most of the guards who started for the Rams in 2022, but with neither of them ever having played an NFL snap, there’s downside here as well.

Noteboom and Allen return to starting roles at left tackle and center respectively after their injury plagued 2022 seasons. Noteboom is still pretty inexperienced, starting his career as a reserve behind Andrew Whitworth and getting hurt in his first full season as the starter in 2022, but he’s made 23 starts over the past four seasons, so he’s not totally inexperienced, and he’s finished with PFF grades higher than 60 in each of the past three seasons, including a 67.0 PFF grade in 2022 before the injury. His return from a torn achilles complicates things for him, especially since he also has had a torn ACL (2019) in his past, and, even if he’s at his best, he’ll still be a big downgrade from what Whitworth was for them before retiring, but Noteboom’s return will still be a welcome one for a team that struggled to find a consistent left tackle in his absence last season.

Allen’s return will also be a welcome one, but it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll match his 2021 level of play, when he was PFF’s 5th ranked center with a 80.2 grade, as he has PFF grades of 58.6 and 63.8 in his other two seasons as a starter and he has a pretty extensive injury history, missing 32 games over the past four seasons combined. It won’t be hard for Allen to be an upgrade on Coleman Shelton, but I wouldn’t expect him to play at the same level as he did in 2021.

The only Rams offensive lineman to start most of the season at the same position in 2022 as he did in 2021 is right tackle Rob Havenstein, who was a bright spot on this offensive line with a 73.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Havenstein remains in that same spot this season and should give the Rams more of the same, having finished with a PFF grade of 70 or higher in six of his eight seasons in the league. His age is a bit of a concern in his age 31 season and he could begin declining this season, but, even if he’s not quite at his best, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.

Overall, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but that could be largely by default, after how bad they were upfront a year ago. The Rams’ starting guards are both completely inexperienced, Noteboom and Allen are coming off significant injuries with extensive injury histories, Havenstein is on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is suspect, so there is still plenty of reason for concern with this group, even if they have the upside to be a lot better than last year’s injury riddled group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

One bright spot for this offense in 2022 was the return of running back Cam Akers from a torn Achilles that cost him almost all of the 2021 season. Akers’ 4.18 YPC average on 188 carries doesn’t seem that impressive, but his 54% carry success rate ranked 12th in the NFL, so he did an above average job keeping this offense on schedule, despite all of the problems around him on this unit. Overall, Akers finished the season as PFF’s 16th ranked running back overall. A third round pick in 2020, Akers also rushed for 4.31 YPC with a 48% carry success rate on 145 carries, albeit on a much better offense as a rookie, with a lost season due to injury in between. Still only in his age 24 season, another year removed from the injury, Akers could have another strong season in 2023, this time with likely more room to run than he had a year ago.

Akers isn’t much of a contributor in the passing game, with a 0.89 yards per route run average for his career, leaving Darrell Henderson to be their primary passing down back last season, but he was underwhelming in that role, averaging 0.51 yards per route run, 4.04 yards per carry on 70 carries, and managing just a 57.7 PFF grade, leading to the Rams not retaining him this off-season. With Henderson gone, the passing down and #2 back role will likely fall to 2022 5th round pick Kyren Williams, who played just 142 snaps in an injury plagued rookie season.

Williams showed promise in limited action (67.2 PFF grade) and has some upside if he can stay healthy, but is mostly their #2 back for lack of a better option. The Rams also added Mississippi’s Zach Evans in the 6th round of this year’s draft, but he had just 30 catches in his collegiate career, so he’s more of a depth option than a realistic candidate to be their passing down back. It’s also possible Akers sees a bigger workload and more passing game work in his second season back from injury, even if he’s not much of an asset in the passing game. Akers is an above average lead back as a runner, but he’s not a true feature back because of his lack of pass catching ability and depth is suspect at this position, which hurts their overall grade.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As much as the Rams have lost on offense since their Super Bowl win, they’ve actually lost a lot more on defense. In fact, of the 15 players who played at least 250 snaps on this defense in 2021, amazingly just three remain on the roster as of this writing. At the edge defender position, the Rams first started by losing Von Miller in free agency last off-season, after the mid-season trade acquisition had a 83.6 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 8 regular season games as the Rams’ top edge defender in 2021. The Rams then followed that by cutting their 2nd best edge defender in 2021, Leonard Floyd, this off-season, a move that saved them 15.5 million dollars.

Floyd wasn’t outstanding in 2022 or anything, with a PFF grade of 65.7, but he played 932 snaps in Miller’s absence and the only reinforcements the Rams added this off-season came from the draft, with Tennessee’s Byron Young added in the 3rd round, Appalachian State’s Nick Hampton added in the 5th round, and Nebraska’s Ochaun Mathis being added in the 6th round. Even as rookies, at least a couple of those three players will likely have to play significant roles in year one, as could 2022 7th round pick Daniel Hardy, who played 41 just underwhelming snaps as a rookie.

Terrell Lewis (332 snaps) and Justin Hollins (307 snaps) saw somewhat significant action last season, but struggled (PFF grades of 46.1 and 54.4 respectively) and, like Leonard Floyd, they are also not back with the team in 2023, leaving Michael Hoecht as the only even somewhat experienced edge defender on the roster. Hoecht showed potential with a 65.4 PFF grade on 409 snaps in 2022, but he was undrafted in 2020 and had only played 126 career snaps before moving into the starting lineup in week 12 of last season, so it would be asking a lot of him to be their top edge defender in 2023, which it looks like he will be by default. This is arguably the thinnest group of edge defenders in the league, almost entirely relying on very inexperienced young players, none of whom were premium draft picks.

Grade: C-

Interior Defenders

The Rams didn’t have as many injuries on defense (13th most adjusted games lost) as they had on offense (first in adjusted games lost), but they were without stud interior defender Aaron Donald for the final 6 games of the season. Donald had never missed a game with injury prior to that, despite averaging 897 snaps per season in the previous 7 seasons, and getting a full season from him will be a boost to this defense, but Donald is now heading into his age 32 season and showed some small signs of decline last year even before getting hurt.

Donald still finished with a 90.5 PFF grade, playing the run at a high level and totaling 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate, but Donald has been so dominant in his career that last season was actually his lowest PFF grade since his rookie season, with seven straight #1 finishes among interior defenders from 2015-2021, while totaling 89 sacks, 124 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate over that stretch. At this point, Donald’s best days are probably behind him and he could easily decline further in 2023, but, even at less than his best, Donald should still be one of the best players in the league at his position and, even if he declines from last season, the Rams should still benefit from having him on the field for more games this season.

Donald is one of the three key contributors remaining on this defense from their Super Bowl team, but the rest of this position group has completely changed since then. This off-season it was Greg Gaines (731 snaps) and A’Shawn Robinson (360 snaps) who weren’t retained, leaving the Rams to rely more heavily on reserves Marquise Copeland (343 snaps) and Jonah Williams (342 snaps) and third year players Bobby Brown (164 snaps) and Earnest Brown (136 snaps), as well as 3rd round rookie Kobie Turner.

None of the aforementioned options have any real experience. Copeland and Williams are undrafted free agents from the 2019 and 2020 class respectively and had played just 111 career snaps and 97 career snaps respectively before being decent in limited action last season, while Bobby and Earnest Brown have played just 186 and 136 career snaps total, since being selected in the 4th and 5th round respectively in 2021. It’s unclear if any of them can handle a larger workload without being a liability, so this is a very questionable position group outside of Donald, who obviously elevates the group as a whole in a significant way even if he isn’t quite at his best anymore.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one big addition the Rams made on defense from 2021 to 2022 was off ball linebacker Bobby Wagner and, between Wagner excelling with a 90.7 PFF grade on 1,079 snaps and one of their few holdovers from their Super Bowl defense Ernest Jones having a solid year with a 63.6 grade on 723 snaps, linebacker was a position of strength for the Rams in 2022. However, Wagner was cut this off-season to save 11.5 million and was not replaced, which will be a massive loss.

With Wagner gone, Jones will become their top linebacker and will probably play more snaps than he did a year ago, perhaps about as many as Wagner did in 2022. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Jones has developed into a capable starter, having a solid season last year after posting a 59.3 PFF grade on 440 snaps as a rookie, and he has the potential to be more, now going into his third season in the league, but he could be a little overstretched in Bobby Wagner’s old role and the Rams now have minimal depth behind Jones on the depth chart.

In fact, the Rams second returning linebacker in terms of snaps played last season is Christian Rozeboom, who played just 8 snaps last season, the first defensive action of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career. Without any additions made to this group this off-season, Rozeboom will compete for a starting role with 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Hummel, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2023 undrafted free agents DeAndre Square, Ryan Smenda, and Kelechi Anyabelachi, in a very thin position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

In 2021, the Rams top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played were Jalen Ramsey (1,037 snaps), Darious Williams (924 snaps), David Long (517 snaps), and Donte Deayon (467 snaps), but none are on the roster anymore, with the biggest loss being Ramsey, a bright spot on this defense with a PFF grade of 86.4 in 16 starts in 2022, after a 84.5 grade in 17 starts in 2021, who was traded for a 3rd round pick this off-season to clear 17 million in salary.

In their place are 2021 4th round pick Robert Rochell, who was 5th on the team with 233 snaps played as a rookie, but who struggled in that limited rookie year action and only played 27 snaps last season, and second year cornerbacks Cobie Durant (4th round) and Derion Kendrick (6th round). Kendrick struggled as a rookie with a PFF grade of 43.7 on 483 snaps, while Durant showed a lot more promise with a 73.3 grade, albeit on only 281 snaps.

Durant at least has upside but he’s hard to project as a de facto #1 cornerback in his first year as a starter, while Kendrick and Rochell have shown little in the limited action they’ve received thus far in their careers and were not premium draft picks. They’re likely all locked into roles though, with the Rams not having any other cornerbacks on their roster who have ever played a defensive snap in their careers. The Rams used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson, but he would almost definitely struggle in a significant role if forced into one as a rookie, as would undrafted rookies Jordan Jones and Collin Duncan, who could also compete for reserve roles in what is another very thin position group on this defense.

The Rams at least bring back safety Jordan Fuller, who is the other one of the three significant contributors who is still on the roster from their 2021 team. That’s a good thing, considering the 2020 6th round pick had a 74.3 grade on 1,028 snaps during that 2021 season. Fuller missed most of last season with injury, limited to 90 snaps total, so his return is actually a rare positive on this defense going into 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did in 2021, but he also had a solid 63.6 grade on 708 snaps as a rookie in 2020 and, only in his age 25 season, has a good chance to remain an above average starter long-term.

Taylor Rapp (76.2 PFF grade on 976 snaps) and Nick Scott (54.2 PFF grade on 984 snaps) were their starters at safety for most of last season with Fuller hurt, but are no longer with the team. Without any good options behind them on the depth chart and with no significant additions at this position this off-season, the other safety spot is yet another position where the Rams are extremely thin. Second year players Russ Yeast and Quentin Lake are the only other safeties on the roster with any NFL playing time, but Yeast and Lake were drafted in only the 7th and 6th round respectively and their NFL experience consists of 113 and 63 nondescript snaps respectively as rookies. Both are likely to struggle if they have to play significant action and one of them will almost definitely have to, with their next best option being 7th round rookie Jason Taylor, who would also likely struggle if forced into significant action. Like much of this defense, this secondary is very thin.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

At first glance, the Rams may look like they have bounce back potential in 2023. They are likely to be significantly healthier than a year ago, they’re just a season removed from winning the Super Bowl, and they still have stars Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, And Cooper Kupp. However, aside from those three, not much else is the same, with just 9 of the 28 players who played at least 250 snaps on either their offense or defense in 2021 still on the team, including just 3 on their defense. The Rams were one of the league leaders in average annual salary for years (top-10 in four of five seasons from 2018-2022) and that allowed them to eventually win a Super Bowl, but they were only able to do that by repeatedly kicking the can on their cap issues and eventually the bill came due.

In the absence of everyone they’ve lost over the past two off-seasons, the Rams have done very little in the way of adding veteran reinforcements, opting to almost exclusively rely on young players on rookie contracts as replacements, and given that they haven’t had a first round pick in 7 seasons and have had just one picks in the top-50 over the past 6 drafts, that means the Rams are relying on a lot of recent mid-to-late round draft picks, many of whom have shown very little thus far in limited action in their careers.

The Rams have done an above average job drafting and developing mid-to-late round picks in recent years, allowing them to maintain depth on their roster behind their stars despite trading away most of their early draft picks, so doubling down on their ability to find gems in the draft makes sense as a strategy, rather than continuing to kick the can on their cap issues by adding more expensive veteran reinforcements, but the Rams are counting on unproven players much more than they ever have, missing many of the star players they used to have.

If we look at the Rams cap/salary structure, we see what looks like a very thin roster that is going through a rebuild. About 32.7% of their cap (72.2 million) is dead cap from players who are no longer on the team, with another 33.5% committed to Stafford, Kupp, and Donald, leaving just 33.8% of the rest of their roster. Their active average annual salary is dead last in the NFL at 197.1 million, after years of being among the league leaders in that metric, a metric that correlates pretty heavily with winning percentage.

Of that active average annual salary, 43.1% is committed to Stafford, Kupp, and Donald alone, all three of whom will be in their age 30 season or later in 2023, meaning the Rams have very little committed to players currently in their primes. Outside of those three aforementioned players, this roster almost resembles a college team, with the amount of unproven players expected to contribute in significant ways.

The Rams ability to draft and develop makes them better suited to navigate this situation than most teams, but it’s worth questioning if the Rams should have gone through a complete rebuild and moved on from Kupp, Stafford, and/or Donald as well, to accumulate much needed premium draft picks. By the time this team is able to compete again, those three could be well past their primes. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in NFC West

Detroit Lions 2023 NFL Season Preview

June 2, 2023September 4, 2023 stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

After four straight years of missing the playoffs and with quarterback Matt Stafford demanding a trade, the Lions started what looked like it would be a long rebuild in the 2021 off-season. Even the Lions themselves seemed to be admitting it would be a long rebuild. They turned down a trade that would have given the Lions a relatively high draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which would have allowed them to select a young quarterback like Mac Jones or Justin Fields, and opted to send Stafford to a Rams for a package that included two first round picks, but in the 2022 and 2023 drafts.

Normally, teams value future draft picks one round lower for every year they have to wait for them, meaning those 2022 and 2023 first round picks were worth the equivalent of a second and third round pick in 2021, but the Lions were not expecting to compete in the short-term and were willing to be patient and wait for the draft picks. The Lions also took back the most expensive contract in the short-term, with the Rams sending quarterback Jared Goff back to the Lions, giving the Lions a more expensive, inferior quarterback that they wouldn’t be able to move on from without penalty for two years.

The first year of this rebuild went about how you’d expect, with the Lions finishing the 2021 season with a 3-13-1 record, which was made even worse by the Rams winning the Super Bowl and leaving the Lions with just the 32nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but, a year later, things look a lot better. While the Rams bottomed out in 2022, gifting the Lions with the 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Lions surprisingly finished the 2022 season at 9-8, barely out of the post-season, despite a 1-6 start. Given how well the Lions closed last season and the overall amount of young talent on this team, many expect the Lions to take another step forward in 2023 and make the post-season, either as a wild card or by winning their division for what would be the first time since the 1993 season, a realistic possibility with both the Packers and Vikings seemingly on the way down and the Bears still rebuilding.

Part of the Lions’ success last season was actually because of the play of the quarterback who most considered a throw-in in the Matt Stafford trade, Jared Goff, who finished the season with a 72.4 PFF rating and completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Goff isn’t as good as Stafford when both are at their best, but he’s younger, only heading into his age 29 season, and he has played well enough to justify his salary (25.975 million in 2023), so the Lions rightfully haven’t been in a hurry to find his replacement, which has allowed them to use all of the assets they’ve accumulated in their rebuild on the rest of this roster.

Goff has never been the kind of quarterback that can elevate a mediocre roster and, as such, he struggled in his first season in Detroit in 2021, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with an underwhelming team around him, but he’s shown himself capable of taking a strong roster to the post-season and beyond, even leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance during the 2018 season. I would expect more of the same from Goff in 2023, in what will be his 8th season in the league.

The Lions did commit a somewhat high pick to the quarterback position in this year’s draft, taking Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in the third round, but Hooker isn’t necessarily a replacement for Goff. The Lions needed a better backup quarterback and Hooker is unlikely to see action in year one anyway, rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered towards the end of the college football season. It’s possible Hooker impresses enough behind the scenes that the Lions want to move on from Goff in a year or two, with Hooker as a cheaper alternative on the roster, but Goff also could just as easily keep the job long-term, with Hooker as his backup.

Unfortunately, with Hooker unlikely to be healthy enough to be the backup in 2023, backup quarterback remains a position of weakness, with Nate Sudfeld (77.3 career QB rating on 37 pass attempts with no starts in 7 seasons in the league) being the only other quarterback on this roster with any experience. He shouldn’t be handed the backup quarterback job and it’s possible the Lions find another backup quarterback option before training camp, which would be advisable, as Sudfeld would likely be in way over his head if forced to start for an extended period of time in the case that Goff suffers an injury. Goff is a solid starter without much of a history of injury (three games missed due to injury in his career), but things would go south for this team in a hurry if he missed significant time.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest reason for the success of Jared Goff and the rest of this offense in 2022 (5th in offensive DVOA) was the play of their offensive line, which is arguably the best in the league. Their offensive line was also the biggest reason for their big improvement from 2021 (29th in offensive DVOA) to 2022, with arguably their two best offensive linemen, offensive tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow, making 17 starts and 16 starts respectively, after injury plagued 2021 seasons in which they started just 9 games and 4 games respectively.

Ragnow received a grade of 77.9 from PFF in his return from injury, 5th highest among centers, and he’s no one-year wonder either, with grades of 74.9 and 80.3 in 2019 and 2020 respectively and even a 86.7 grade in 2021 before getting hurt. A first round pick in 2018 who is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, with minimal injury history outside of 2021 (4 games missed total in his other 4 seasons in the league), I would expect Ragnow to remain one of the top centers in the league in 2023.

Decker isn’t quite as good, but still received a 74.4 grade from PFF, 22nd among offensive tackles. That’s nothing new for Decker, who has received a grade of at least 70 from PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, with the one exception being an injury plagued season in 2017, only his second season in the league. Outside of that injury plagued season and 2021, Decker has only ever missed one other start and, not over the hill at age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect any drop off from him this season. Assuming he doesn’t suffer another injury, he should remain at least an above average starter on the left side for the Lions in 2023.

Decker’s return to health allowed Penei Sewell to spend the whole season at right tackle, where the 7th overall pick fared significantly better as a rookie (80.7 PFF grade) while Decker was healthy than he did at left tackle (68.5 PFF grade), where he was forced to play while Decker was out. Sewell continued that strong play on the right side into his second season in the league, proving to be a dominant force with a 80.6 PFF grade, 9th among offensive tackles. He can play left tackle in a pinch if needed, but it’s clear the right side is his better position and, only in his age 23 season, he should remain one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come, even if he doesn’t improve even further, which he could.

The Lions also got good play out of their guards in 2022. Ragnow’s return allowed Evan Brown, who was capable, if unspectacular at center in Ragnow’s absence, to move to right guard, where he continued being a solid starter, posting a 64.8 PFF grade in 12 starts after a 66.8 PFF grade in 12 starts at center in 2021. Brown is no longer with the team, but the Lions do get veteran Halapoulivaati Vaitai back from an injury that cost him all of last season. Vaitai received a 68.4 grade in 15 starts in his last healthy season in 2021, though it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do that again, coming off of a significant injury, going into his age 30 season, and with a history of inconsistency. Aside from 2021, he’s never made more than 10 starts in a season in 7 seasons in the league and in his two other seasons with at least 6 starts he has received PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.7 respectively. He’s probably the weak spot by default on an overall strong offensive line, though he does have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy.

Jonah Jackson remained as the starter at left guard, where he’s been since being drafted by the Lions in the third round in 2020. He had some growing pains as a rookie, finishing with a 57.0 PFF grade, but that improved to 69.3 in 2021 and 66.1 in 2022 and, in total, he’s started 45 of a possible 50 games since entering the league. Going into his age 26 season, he could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a solid starter into 2023 and beyond.

The Lions also have good depth on the offensive line, after signing veteran Graham Glasgow to be a reserve this off-season. For Glasgow, it’s a return to Detroit, where the 2016 3rd round pick spent his first four seasons in the league. Glasgow developed into an above average starter in Detroit, receiving grades of 70.6, 71.1, and 74.1 from PFF in his final 3 seasons respectively, seeing action at both guard and center, but he was kind of a bust as a free agent signing with the Broncos, who lured him over on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal, only to see Glasgow post grades of 68.5, 65.1, and 59.3 in an injury plagued tenure in which he missed 13 games in three seasons. Now going into his age 31 season with a significant recent injury history, Glasgow would be an underwhelming week 1 starting option, but he’s great depth to have, especially given his versatility. He should be able to hold down a starting spot for an extended period of time on the interior if needed.

The Lions’ tackle depth is not as good, with Matt Nelson making 12 starts as the swing tackle over the past three seasons, but receiving grades of just 55.8, 50.8, and 46.3 from PFF. He’ll be pushed for the swing tackle role by veteran journeyman Germain Ifedi, who is plenty experienced (83 starts in 7 seasons in the league), but who has mostly struggled in his career, finishing with a PFF grade higher than 60 just twice in seven seasons in the league, with his career high being 65.0 in 2020. Ifedi is probably an upgrade over Nelson, but mostly by default and he would be a big downgrade from Decker or Sewell if either missed significant time with injury. Still, this is a very talented offensive line overall, possibly the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big part of the reason why the Lions were so much better on offense in 2022 than they were in 2021 was the emergence of second year wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as a legitimate #1 receiver. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, St. Brown surprised a lot of people as a rookie with a 90/912/5 slash line (79.4 PFF grade) and surprised even more when he took another step forward in year two, finishing with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a PFF grade of 90.7 that ranked him second among wide receivers. He’s still a 1-year wonder in terms of being an elite wide receiver, but it was a surprise that he fell to the 5th round in the first place and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue proving teams wrong and remaining one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2022 every season.

St. Brown was by far the Lions’ best receiver last season, with their second leading receiver on the team Kalif Raymond posting just a 47/616/0 slash line and that will likely remain the case for the Lions in 2023, at least for the first six games of the year. The Lions were hoping that second year wide receiver Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, would break out opposite St. Brown in his second season in the league, after what amounted to a rookie redshirt year, with a torn ACL that he sustained in the college football playoffs limiting him to 78 snaps late in the season.

Williams could still break out, but it’ll have to wait until at least week 7, with Williams serving a gambling suspension for the first six weeks of the season. Williams would have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft had he not gotten hurt and he has the upside to breakout as one of the top wide receivers in the league long-term, but he’s still unproven at this level and, even if he someday becomes one of the better wide receivers in the league, that doesn’t mean he’ll do so right away.

With Williams out for the first six weeks of the season, the Lions will have to depend more on Marvin Jones, a free agent acquisition who will replace free agent departure DJ Chark (69.6 PFF grade across 534 snaps), and Kalif Raymond, a former undrafted career special teamer who surprised with his decent play as the #2 receiver last season (72.1 PFF grade across 555 snaps), after struggling in a similar role with a 60.5 PFF grade across 742 snaps in 2021, the first significant action of his career at wide receiver. Raymond is probably best suited to be a #3 or #4 wide receiver, but he’s not a terrible fill-in option, even if he obviously lacks Williams’ upside.

Marvin Jones is more or less the same, a decent player, but better suited for a reserve and situational role. There was a time he was more than that and, in fact, this is his second stint in Detroit, after averaging a 58/859/7 slash line per season in five seasons with the Lions from 2016-2020, but Jones is heading into his age 33 season now and has seen his yards per route run average drop from 1.59 in his first nine seasons in the league to 1.24 over the past two seasons, so he seems to be getting close to the end. He might have another capable season left in him, but he’s a pretty low upside option. Holdover Josh Reynolds is also in the mix, but the 6-year veteran has just a 1.23 yards per route run average for his career.

The Lions added to this receiving corps by taking Iowa’s Sam LaPorta in the second round of the draft. That’s not a surprising move considering the Lions received a package centered around a second round pick in exchange for tight end TJ Hockenson, who the Lions sent to the Vikings mid-season last year. The Lions didn’t miss Hockenson much, making the tight end position less of a part of their passing game and sending Hockenson’s targets elsewhere, but LaPorta should at least have a rookie year role in this offense, with his top competition being Brock Wright, a blocking specialist who was the nominal starter in Hockenson’s absence last season.

Wright has averaged a decent 1.30 yards per route run in a limited passing game role in his first two seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent is an underwhelming starting option, receiving grades of 53.5 and 54.2 from PFF over the past seasons. The Lions also have 2022 5th round pick James Mitchell, who showed some upside with a 66.9 PFF grade on 183 snaps as a rookie and could take a step forward and play a bigger role in year two. LaPorta should be considered the favorite for the starting job, but tight ends tend to have a steep learning curve entering the NFL and he’s mostly the favorite for the job because his competition is underwhelming. This passing game will still go through St. Brown, but the re-addition of Jameson Williams mid-season after his suspension could have a big impact if he can come close to meeting his potential.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Lions also likely have a big passing game role planned for rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who they selected 12th overall after trading down from the Rams pick at 6. Gibbs was a controversial pick, as running backs taken in the first round tend not to be a good investment and running back didn’t even seem to fill a clear need for the Lions, with David Montgomery, a 4-year starter with the Bears, being signed to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal in free agency and D’Andre Swift as a passing down/change of pace option.

Montgomery’s role is now somewhat up in the air, originally signed to replace Jamaal Williams, who had a 4.07 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 262 carries last season, but now with a highly drafted rookie added as competition. Montgomery’s contract suggests the Lions expect him to have at least somewhat significant of a role, at least on early downs, but the Lions are likely overpaying for how much usage Montgomery figures to get. He’s surpassed 200 carries in each of the past four years with the Bears and, even if that’s not the case again in 2023 if he splits carries with Gibbs, he should see his career 3.94 YPC average increase now with significantly better blocking in Detroit than he had in Chicago. However, the Lions are paying a steep price for him, especially when considering he probably will have the second most touches in this backfield behind Gibbs.

Gibbs gives the Lions upside in the passing game that Montgomery (1.04 yards per route run in his career) doesn’t and, while Swift fared well in that role last season (1.65 yards per route run), in addition to a 5.47 YPC on 99 carries as the change of pace back, the Lions were likely concerned about Swift’s durability, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed at least three games with injury in every season in the league, and clearly favored Gibbs long-term. With Gibbs being added in the draft, the Lions had no need for Swift, who was in the final year of his rookie deal and returned a 2025 4th round pick in a post-draft trade with the Eagles. The Lions have a lot of resources committed to this backfield, with Montgomery being the 15th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and Gibbs being selected 12th overall, and they might not get the kind of play you would expect for the kind of resources they’ve spent, but they are a solid running back tandem at the very least.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

With the Lions having the success on offense they did last season, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that their defense was a big problem, ranking 28th in DVOA, and, if the Lions want to take a step forward as a team in 2023, that’s the side of the ball where they will need to improve. There is good reason to believe the Lions can do that, in part because defensive performance tends to be much less consistent and predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but also because the Lions committed significant resources to their defense this off-season and have several players they can expect more out of in 2023.

At the edge defender position, the latter is the case, as the Lions didn’t make any big additions to this group, but could still get better play than they did a year ago. Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, and James Houston are all second year players who could be better than they were as rookies. Hutchinson has by far the most upside of the group and the 2022 2nd overall pick is already off to a great start, finishing his rookie year with a 80.7 PFF grade, including 89.5 from week 11 on. That’s a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued that into year two.

Paschal was a second round pick and his rookie year impact was probably underwhelming for a relatively high draft pick, spending most of the year as a reserve, playing just 293 snaps and receiving an underwhelming 55.1 PFF grade. However, he has the talent to take a step forward in year two and become a more consistent contributor. James Houston also didn’t play much as a rookie, seeing just 140 snaps total, but he was incredibly efficient in his limited action, managing 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate on just 92 pass rush snaps. He’s highly unlikely to be anywhere near that efficient again in 2023, just because no one does that for an extended period of time, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t make a bigger impact overall if he gets more playing time.

The Lions also have a pair of veterans coming off injury plagued years who could make more of an impact in 2023, Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara. Harris was the Lions’ best pass rusher in 2021, totaling 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate and received a 68.3 PFF grade, but he was limited to 259 snaps in 6 games in 2022 and did not fare nearly as well when on the field either, finishing the year with a 56.4 PFF grade and a 7.2% pressure rate.

Harris should be healthier in 2023, though there’s no guarantee he’ll play as well as he did in 2021, which has largely been an outlier season for a player who has mostly been a reserve in his career, with his highest snap count outside of 2021 being just 496 back in his rookie season in 2017. Harris was a first round pick in 2017 and looked like a late bloomer after 2021, but he could just as easily prove to be a one-year wonder who can’t repeat his 2021 form.

For Okwara, his injury issues date back a couple years, as a torn achilles suffered during the 2021 season limited him to 188 snaps in 4 games that season and 119 snaps in 5 games last season. Okwara also didn’t look himself upon his return last season, struggling with a 56.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Okwara is largely a one-year wonder as well, with 10 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in his last full healthy season in 2020 and just a 8.9% pressure rate in his other 6 seasons in the league combined, but he had a 17.8% pressure rate in 2021 in limited action before getting hurt and, still only in his age 28 season, another year removed from his injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he bounced back at least somewhat in 2023.

With Harris and Okwara likely to be healthier and a trio of second year players who could take a step forward, it’s very likely that John Cominsky, who finished second among Lions edge defenders behind Hutchinson with 554 snaps played last season, has a diminished role this season, perhaps significantly, but that’s not necessarily an indictment on his play, as he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate last season and had an admirable 68.2 PFF grade.

Cominsky was a career backup prior to last season, with 512 total snaps played in his first three seasons in the league with the Falcons prior to being claimed off the waivers by the Lions in 2022, but the 2019 4th round pick always flashed in limited action and should fare well in what will likely be a more limited rotational role for him in 2023, in a position group that should be much deeper than a year ago, despite not having any significant off-season additions.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Lions didn’t make any notable additions on the interior of their defensive line either this off-season, but they do get 2021 2nd round pick Levi Onwuzurike back after he missed all of 2022 with injury. Onwuzurike didn’t show much in limited action (396 snaps) as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of potential and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he developed into at least a solid contributor in his third season in the league in 2023. The Lions being deeper at the edge defender spot also means they can line up an edge defender on the inside in obvious passing situations more often than they did last season, which will offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat.

Even with Onwuzurike returning and more depth on the edge, the Lions will once again be counting on big roles from Alim McNeill (779 snaps) and Isaiah Buggs (752 snaps). McNeill was also in the 2021 draft class with Onwuzurike and, despite going a round later in the third round, his career has gotten off to a much better start than Onwuzurike’s, as he had a decent 60.1 PFF grade on 422 snaps as a rookie before posting a 69.8 grade in a much larger starting role in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid contributor.

Buggs is a much shakier option. He finished last season with a 53.9 PFF grade and only played as much as he did out of necessity with Onwuzurike out, after playing just 433 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, finishing with grades of lower than 60 on PFF in each of those three seasons as well. He’ll almost definitely play fewer snaps this season, but he’ll probably still struggle even in a smaller role and the Lions aren’t deep enough to avoid having to at least play him in a rotational role.

The Lions also signed veteran journeyman Christian Covington in free agency to give them additional depth. Covington was a good rotational player earlier in his career, but he’s finished below average on PFF in every season in his career in which he’s played more than 500 snaps and now he’s heading into his age 30 season coming off of an injury plagued season with the Chargers in which he struggled mightily when on the field and played just 123 snaps total. He’ll compete for a deep rotational role with their top returning reserve interior defender Benito Jones, a 2020 undrafted free agent who struggled on 309 snaps in the first significant action of his career. The return of Onwuzurike will probably help this group, but they’re still underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Lions had two first round picks this year because of the Matt Stafford trade and they used the second of those two picks, their own, 18th overall, on Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell. Like the selection of Jahmyr Gibbs with their first round, Campbell’s selection was also controversial, as he was considered a day 2 prospect and didn’t seem to fill an obvious need either. The Lions re-signed veteran Alex Anzalone to a 3-year, 18.3 million dollar deal this off-season and have a pair of recent draft picks who had decent seasons last year, 2021 4th round pick Derrick Barnes and 2022 6th round pick Malcolm Rodriguez, who had PFF grades of 62.3 and 62.8 respectively on 346 snaps and 611 snaps respectively.

Barnes struggled mightily as a rookie on 448 snaps, but could easily continue being a good situational linebacker long-term, while Rodriguez looked like a long-term starter. Anzalone might actually be the worst of the bunch, starting 51 of 69 games played in six seasons in the league, but only once receiving a grade from PFF higher than 62 (59.2 last season). However, his contract basically guarantees him a role, so Campbell’s addition will mostly take snaps away from their other young linebackers. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps and there will be a lot of competition for roles in training camp, even if the addition of a linebacker in the first round probably wasn’t necessary.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Lions committed the most resources to this secondary of any position group this off-season, a smart decision as that was their biggest weakness last season. Jeffrey Okudah (59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps), Will Harris (63.7 on 659 snaps), Mike Hughes (59.9 on 561 snaps), Jerry Jacobs (55.8 on 542 snaps), and Amani Oruwairye (30.0 on 474 snaps) were their top cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season. This off-season, they added Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton to be starters on contracts of 1 years, 6 million and 3 years, 33 million respectively and they added hybrid safety/slot cornerbacks CJ Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch as well, with Gardner-Johnson added in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar contract and Branch being a second round draft pick. Okudah was traded, Hughes and Oruwairye weren’t retained in free agency, and Harris and Jacobs are likely to be reserves in 2023.

Sutton will be the de facto #1 cornerback, by virtue of his bigger salary. The 2017 3rd round pick was a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s made 37 starts over the past 3 seasons with PFF grades of 68.6, 61.9, and 71.6 respectively so he should continue being at least a solid starting option for the Lions, something they didn’t really have last season. Moseley should be as well, as he’s finished with a PFF grade higher than 68 of three of the past four seasons, including a career best 70.9 in 2022. His biggest problem has been durability, missing 22 games over those 4 seasons. He should remain a solid starter, but he’ll probably miss more time at some point, having never played more than 602 snaps in a season in his career.

How the Lions use Gardner-Johnson and Branch will be interesting to see, as both can play on the slot and at safety and the Lions have playing time available in both spots. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his 6 interceptions last season with the Eagles, tied for the league lead, but it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency, as he only had a 63.9 PFF grade last season despite the high interception total and he’s finished with a PFF grade below 65 in three of four seasons in the league. He’s also never finished below 60, so he has a low floor and he’s a versatile option who is a good value for the Lions on the contract they signed him to, but he’s not as good as his interception total last season suggests.

The Lions will also be getting safety Tracy Walker back from injury, after his 2022 season was ended by a week 3 achilles tear. He might not be quite the same in his first season back from injury, but the 2018 3rd round pick has finished average or better on PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, with three seasons above 70, including a 74.3 grade before injury in 2022. Still only in his age 28 season, he should make something close to a full recovery in his first season back and should be an asset for this defense upon his return.

In Tracy Walker’s absence, DeShon Elliott (859 snaps) and Kerby Joseph (875 snaps) led Lions safeties in snaps played. Elliott is no longer with the team, but Joseph was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and should maintain a role in this secondary, even with Walker returning, after earning a promising 64.0 grade from PFF as a rookie. He probably won’t see the same snap count this year, but should still be a useful player for them in sub packages and obvious passing situations, when Gardner-Johnson and/or Branch could move to the slot.

Will Harris also remains as a versatile reserve who can play safety and cornerback. Primarily playing cornerback last year, he was the Lions’ only cornerback to receive even an average grade from PFF and, while the 2019 3rd round pick has been more inconsistent than that in the past, he’s still not a bad reserve option, especially when you consider his versatility. This isn’t a great secondary, but isn’t much deeper and more talented than last year’s unit, which was one of the worst in the league. If the Lions are significantly improved on defense this season, it will be primarily because of the improvement in this unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions were one of the best offensive teams in the league last season and have a good chance to repeat their strong performance again in 2023, with all of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense returning from a year ago. On defense, the Lions should be much improved, thanks to the improvement of their young defensive line and the off-season additions they made in the secondary. They won’t be great defensively, but they won’t need to be to make the post-season if their offense can continue playing around the level they played at last season. In a weak NFC North, the Lions look like the early favorites. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in NFC North

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