Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)

This line, favoring the Raiders by 3 at home, seems a little low. The Chargers have been the better team statistically this season, but not by much, leading in yards per play differential -0.39 to -0.40 and first down rate -2.54% to -2.88%, and now they will be without probably their two most important players, franchise quarterback Justin Herbert and top wide receiver Keenan Allen, for the first time this season. That makes them arguably the worst team in the league and sinks them three points behind the Raiders in my roster rankings. Given that, the Raiders should be favored by 4-5 points, so we’re getting some value with them at -3. 

However, the Raiders are in a tough spot this week. Both teams essentially had their seasons ended last week, with losses dropping them to 5-8, but the Raiders have a much tougher game on deck in Kansas City against the Chiefs that could easily serve as a distraction. Divisional home favorites like the Raiders cover at just a 36.8% rate against an opponent with a winning percentage below 40% when they next have a divisional game on the road against an opponent with a winning percentage above 60%. That game against the Chiefs will essentially be the Raiders’ Super Bowl, so they might not get up for the Easton Stick led Chargers on a short week. I’m still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes, against a Chargers team that is arguably the worst in the league with their current injury situation, but I’m not confident in them at all in a bad spot and would probably take the Chargers if this line was 3.5 or higher. That’s how close this one is for me.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -3

Confidence: None