Pick of the Week
PIT 27 (+2.5) CIN 23 Upset Pick +115
High Confidence Picks
Medium Confidence Picks
Low Confidence Picks
BUF 17 NE 16 (+3)
LAC 24 (-6.5) LV 16
GB 31 (-10) CHI 19
WAS 28 (-6.5) DAL 20
ARZ 23 SF 20 (+4.5)
NYJ 24 (PK) MIA 23
SEA 24 LAR 19 (+7)
No Confidence Picks
ATL 30 (-7.5) CAR 21
DET 30 (-2.5) MIN 27
TB 31 NO 17 (+14.5)
DEN 24 (-10.5) KC 13
TEN 24 HOU 23 (+1.5)
New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
The Eagles are resting some key starters in this game, locked into the #2 seed in the NFC regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally I don’t like to bet on games where one team is resting their starter because they tend to be unpredictable, but I think we’re getting some line value with the Eagles in this game. If this was a regular game, my calculated line would have the Eagles favored by 18.5 points. Instead, this line is Philadelphia -2.5, meaning the Eagles’ absent starters would have to be worth 16 points for this line to make sense and I think that’s too much, especially since the Eagles will either be starting Kenny Pickett, a solid backup, or Tanner McKee, who showed promise in limited action last week, at quarterback.
You might be hesitant about betting on a team resting starters, but teams are actually 20-14 ATS in that spot over the past 13 seasons, which isn’t a reason to bet on teams resting starters, but it’s a reason not to shy away from it. The Giants are also in a bad spot after a big upset win last week, winning straight up as underdogs of 7 points against the Colts. Teams cover the spread just at a 41.3% rate the week after winning as home underdogs or five points or more, as it tends to be tough for a bad team to bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. There still is a lot of uncertainty in a game where the Eagles are resting starters, so this is a small bet, but I think there is money to be made here.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2.5
Confidence: Medium
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
The Colts lost last week in embarrassing fashion, losing as 7-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the league in the New York Giants. Not only that, but that loss essentially ended the Colts season, as it caused them to be eliminated from post-season contention. You might think the Colts will be flat this week after such an embarrassing loss made this game meaningless for post-season qualification purposes, but we’ve seen plenty of teams give high levels of effort the week after being eliminated, most recently the 49ers and Cardinals last week, the Cardinals doing so after an embarrassing upset loss to the Panthers.
On top of that, the Colts will be motivated to put that embarrassing loss behind them and avoid another potentially embarrassing loss to another one of the worst teams in the league this week, at home for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams tend to bounce back after big upset losses like the Colts’ loss, covering the spread at a 60.7% rate the week after losing as road favorites of seven or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that, which usually makes them a good bet.
I can’t say for sure that the Colts will be overlooked and embarrassed this week, but they definitely seem undervalued as 4.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars this week. Even with last week’s loss included, the Colts still have a significant edge over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -4.18%) and yards per play differential (-0.12 vs. -0.63), against a pretty similar schedule (.460 opponents winning percentage for the Colts, .474 for the Jaguars).
The Colts also are a much healthier team, likely missing just three week one starters, one of which is quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has struggled this season, as opposed to at least six missing starters for the Jaguars, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence and three starting pass catchers in Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. With injuries factored in, the Colts have a 4.5-point edge over the Jaguars in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line of Indianapolis -6.5. That gives us decent line value with the Colts, in addition to a strong situational trend on their side, so they are worth betting this week. With no significant players looking truly questionable for either side, I am locking in this bet in early this week before the line potentially increases.
Update: This line weirdly has dropped to 3 in some places, which warrants an additional bet.
Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3
Confidence: High
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Dating back to Mike Tomlin’s first season in Pittsburgh in 2007, the Steelers have been a great bet as underdogs, going 57-40 ATS, including 17-7 ATS as home underdogs, 24-11 ATS as divisional underdogs, and 7-1 ATS as divisional home underdogs. The Bengals tend to be a good bet later in the season in the Joe Burrow/Zac Taylor era, going 28-17 ATS in week 10 or later since 2020, which could cancel out the trend working in the Steelers’ favor, but the Steelers also benefit from being in their second straight game as home underdogs after a big loss as home underdogs, as teams cover at a 55.2% rate as home underdogs the week after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs.
On top of that, we’re also getting some line value with the Steelers as 2-point home underdogs. The Bengals have a statistical edge despite having two fewer wins, with a first down rate differential of +1.49% and a yards per play differential of +0.29, as opposed to -2.24% and -0.32 for the Steelers, two stats which much more predictive than win/loss record. However, the Steelers have a significant injury edge, as they’re missing just one week 1 starter, right guard James Daniels, who has been out since week 4.
That means the Steelers are relatively very healthy for this point in the season, especially when you consider that key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) have all missed time with injury this season and have since returned, so it’s not as if the Steelers have been relatively healthy all season long.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are missing at least six week one starters, potentially eight, and, as a result, are about a point behind the Steelers in my roster rankings, despite their statistical advantage on the season. The Steelers also have one major advantage that yards per play differential, first down rate differential, and my roster rankings don’t show, as their kicker Chris Boswell ranks first in the NFL among eligible kickers with 0.87 points above expected per game this season, while Bengals kicker Evan McPherson is injured and was replaced with Cade York, who is arguably the worst active kicker in the NFL, averaging a league worst 1.69 points below expected per game this season, after averaging 0.57 points below expected per game in 2022 in his only other season in the league. That’s probably worth about two points in the Steelers favor.
Given that disparity at kicker and that the Steelers have the edge in my roster rankings and homefield advantage, my calculated line favors the Steelers at home by at least a field goal, potentially up to five points depending on injuries, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers at +2 and +110 on the money line, before even taking into account that the Steelers should be in a better spot than the Bengals this week. There is some speculation that the Steelers might rest their starters in this game if the Ravens win as massive favorites over the Browns earlier in the day, which would eliminate the Steelers from the divisional race. That could be part of why the Steelers are home underdogs, but I think it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers rest starters, for a few reasons.
For one, the Steelers will have to prepare for this game all week as if they are going to have a chance to win the division, as they can’t just assume the Ravens will win. Additionally, head coach Mike Tomlin said he doesn’t expect to rest starters. On top of that, the Steelers still will have the 5 seed to play for even if the Ravens win, which is a big deal, as the 5 seed is the difference between having to go to Baltimore in the first round and getting to go to Houston to face the reeling Texans. If the Steelers win this game, they clinch the 5 seed, but if they lose and the Chargers beat the lowly Raiders, the Steelers would fall to 6. Because of that, I feel comfortable betting on the Steelers this week and want to lock this in before the line potentially moves. If this line stays the same and some key questionable players for the Bengals (running back Chase Brown, right tackle Amarius Mims, cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt) are inactive, I may increase this bet or potentially even make it my Pick of the Week.
Update: Without any better options in a week where at least four, if not more, teams are going to rest their starters, I am making this my Pick of the Week, especially since the line has increased slightly to +2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +110
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
The Ravens are one of the few teams this week that actually has something to play for, as they can lock up the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC with a win this week over the Browns. The Ravens are heavily favored to do that, opening as 17.5-point favorites this week, but that arguably isn’t high enough, as the Ravens rank first statistically and in my roster rankings. My roster rankings have the Ravens 11 points above average, while their first down rate differential of +1.63 and yards per play differential of +6.36% are both significantly better than the second ranked teams in those metrics, which are at +1.08 and +4.60% respectively.
The Browns have a solid defense, but their offense is horrendous. Not only do they rank 32nd in first down rate and 31st in yards per play, but their current quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the worst of the three quarterbacks they’ve played this season and one of the worst quarterbacks in recent memory, with one touchdown to ten interceptions in five career starts. I made a huge mistake last week underestimating how bad he was, but he should be picked against almost every time.
My calculated line for this game has the Ravens favored by 20, which is decent line value, and the Ravens are also in a good spot. The Browns beat them earlier this season, but that was in Cleveland when the Browns’ best quarterback Jameis Winston was under center and that win actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to struggle as big underdogs against a team they’ve already beaten as big underdogs that season. Overall, underdogs or 3.5 or more cover the spread at just a 41.7% rate against a team they already beat as underdogs or 3.5 points or more that season.
There’s enough here for the Ravens to be worth a bet, even with the line being this high. In fact, I’m locking this bet in now because this line could climb if the Ravens chose to rule out injured veterans like Myles Garrett, Jerome Ford, Jordan Hicks, and/or Denzel Ward, who didn’t practice on Tuesday, for this meaningless week 18 game, while the Ravens weren’t missing any key players at Tuesday’s practice and have an obvious reason to give their best effort.
Update: Good news/bad news for this Ravens bet. The good news is the Browns will be without Ford, Hicks, and Ward this week, which are big absences. The bad news is the Browns will be starting fourth string quarterback Bailey Zappe, who is probably better than Thompson-Robinson by fault. The line has moved up to 20 as well, so I’m glad I locked this in at 17.5. Ultimately, nothing changes with this bet, but these are noteworthy updates.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 9
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -17.5
Confidence: Medium
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