2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

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New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Medium