Pick of the Week
DAL 25 (+3.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +145
High Confidence Picks
IND 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +155
SEA 26 (-11.5) TEN 10
Medium Confidence Picks
LAR 31 (-6.5) TB 22
NE 33 CIN 28 (+7.5)
Low Confidence Picks
JAX 24 ARZ 23 (+3)
LV 13 CLE 10 (+4)
BAL 28 (-13.5) NYJ 13
SF 31 CAR 24 (+7.5)
CHI 23 PIT 21 (+3)
DET 28 NYG 16 (+14)
No Confidence Picks
GB 19 MIN 13 (+6.5)
NO 21 ATL 20 (+2.5)
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)
The Texans are 5-5, but most of their wins have been by multiple scores, while most of their losses have been by one-score, giving them a +57 point differential (9th in the NFL), a +1.43% first down rate differential (9th), and a +0.53 yards per play differential (8th). The Bills have two more wins than them, but aren’t much better in most of those metrics, ranking 8th in point differential (+63), 6th in first down rate differential (+3.07%), and 7th in yards per play differential (+0.68). However, the Texans are without starting quarterback CJ Stroud and stud defensive back Jalen Pitre for the third straight game. This line accurately reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 5.5 at home, which is my exact calculated line. If I have to pick a side, I would pick the Texans, but only for a no confidence pick.
Early Locked Bets: DAL +3.5, IND +3.5
Buffalo Bills 25 Houston Texans 20
Pick against the spread: Houston +5.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
DAL 27 (-3) LV 20
High Confidence Picks
BUF 31 (-5.5) TB 23
LAC 23 (-3) JAX 17
Medium Confidence Picks
PIT 27 CIN 24 (+5.5)
HOU 16 TEN 13 (+6)
BAL 22 CLE 17 (+7.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 23 NYG 17 (+7.5)
ATL 20 CAR 17 (+3.5)
MIN 26 CHI 24 (+3)
LAR 27 SEA 24 (+3.5)
SF 27 (-3) ARZ 23
KC 24 DEN 20 (+4.5)
No Confidence Picks
PHI 26 DET 24 (+2.5)
MIA 26 WAS 24 (+2.5)
On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!
New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2)
There is a big discrepancy in these two teams’ records and this line, favoring the Patriots by 13, reflects that, but the Patriots have not been as good as their record suggests, while the Jets have not been as bad. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Patriots rank 14th and 10th at +0.26% and +0.43 respectively. That’s despite having the easiest schedule in the league thus far. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Patriots rank just 14th in overall efficiency and my roster rankings line up with that, as they rank 15th.
The Jets, meanwhile, have played a lot of close games, with only two losses by more than seven points, which is relevant considering this line is all the way up to 13. On top of that, the Jets have managed to keep most of their games close despite the fact that they have a league worst -10 turnover margin, in large part due to a league worst 21.05% fumble recovery rate, both of which are extremely volatile on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Jets rank 22nd (-2.05%) and 24th (-0.50) respectively. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Jets rank 23rd in overall efficiency.
The Jets traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams last week and now they are without top wide receiver Garrett Wilson due to injury, so my roster rankings have them ranked lower than the statistics do, as they rank 29th in my roster rankings, but we’re still getting significant line value with them at +13. This would be a bigger bet, but the Jets are not in a great spot, as teams are 12-23 ATS in their second game in five days after a bye, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. Still, even with that trend taken into account, my calculated line is New England -9, so we’re getting enough line value with the Jets to bet on them at +13.
Early Locked Bets: BUF -5.5
On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!
New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 15
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +13
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
IND 31 (-6.5) ATL 17
High Confidence Picks
DET 23 WAS 20 (+8.5)
BUF 35 (-8.5) MIA 20
Medium Confidence Picks
LAC 21 (-2.5) PIT 17
CHI 26 NYG 24 (+4.5)
GB 21 (PK) PHI 17
NYJ 16 (+2.5) CLE 13 Upset Pick +115
Low Confidence Picks
HOU 15 (+1.5) JAX 13 Upset Pick +105
BAL 28 (-3.5) MIN 23
LAR 33 (-4.5) SF 27
No Confidence Picks
SEA 31 (-6.5) ARZ 24
CAR 15 NO 10 (+5.5)
TB 30 (-2.5) NE 27
On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, is having a hard time and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)
The Raiders lost last week when they went for two at the end of overtime against the Jaguars, instead of tying it up with an extra point. It was the right decision, despite the outcome, as it is much better for team morale to play for a win rather than for a tie. However, the Raiders actually should have gone for two on their last touchdown drive of the fourth quarter. Even if the result had been the same, that would have prevented them from having to play overtime at all, which is important because they had Thursday Night Football next on the schedule.
Now coming off of an overtime game, the Raiders are in a near impossible situation on a short week. Teams are just 6-25 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game. As underdogs of a touchdown or more, teams are 1-7 ATS and 0-8 straight up, losing by an average of 16.4 points per game on an average line of +9.4. Making matters worse, this is the Raiders’ second game in five days following a bye, a spot in which teams are 11-23 ATS all-time, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. This isn’t a big bet on the Broncos as 8.5-point home favorites because we aren’t getting any line value (my calculated line is Denver -7.5), but this spot is good enough to bet on that alone. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keeping this one close, given the situation they are in.
Early Locked Bets: WAS +8.5, IND -6.5, NYG +4.5, LAC -2.5
On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, is having a hard time and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!
Denver Broncos 26 Las Vegas Raiders 13
Pick against the spread: Denver -8.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
IND 31 (-3) PIT 24
High Confidence Picks
LAC 27 (-9.5) TEN 13
LAR 31 (-14) NO 13
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 28 MIN 23 (+8.5)
LV 17 (+3) JAX 16 Upset Pick +130
Low Confidence Picks
GB 24 CAR 13 (+13.5)
NYG 24 (+2.5) SF 23 Upset Pick +120
DEN 17 (+2) HOU 16 Upset Pick +110
KC 30 (-1.5) BUF 27
DAL 31 (-2.5) ARZ 27
CHI 24 CIN 23 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
NE 25 (-4.5) ATL 20
SEA 23 (-3) WAS 20
BAL 31 MIA 24 (+7.5)
Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6)
Both of these teams only have two wins, but they have very different rest of the season outlooks. While the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per play differential (29th at -0.70) and first down rate differential (28th at -3.24%), the Ravens have been much better in those metrics than their record, ranking 14th in yards per play differential (+0.04) and 18th in first down rate differential (-0.64%), despite a much tougher schedule than the Dolphins. Those metrics are much more predictive of a team’s future success than a team’s win/loss record, so that bodes well for the Ravens going forward.
The Ravens are also much healthier now than they have been for most of the season, with quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, defensive tackle Travis Jones, edge defender Kyle Van Noy, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton all back from injuries that cost them time earlier in this season. With their team close to full strength and their schedule set to get much easier, the Ravens, one of the top teams in the AFC coming into the season, should be able to rip off a bunch of wins over the coming weeks to get themselves right back into the playoff picture.
Unfortunately, we’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens, as this line, favoring the Ravens by 7.5 points on the road, reflects the Ravens’ promising rest of season outlook. My calculated line is actually only Baltimore -7, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. The Dolphins are in a bad spot, as teams that win as underdogs of 6.5+ cover at just a 38.6% rate the following week as underdogs of 6.5+ the following week, but the Ravens aren’t in a good spot either, as they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye. Teams in that spot cover at just a 30.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-10 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. If I had to pick a side, I would take the Dolphins, but if this line was -7, I would take the Ravens. That’s how close this one is for me.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Miami Dolphins 24
Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
BUF 27 CAR 24 (+7.5)
High Confidence Picks
CIN 23 NYJ 21 (+6.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 34 (-14.5) TEN 13
NE 20 CLE 16 (+7)
DEN 24 DAL 23 (+3.5)
KC 30 WAS 21 (+12.5)
Low Confidence Picks
HOU 20 (-1.5) SF 17
BAL 23 (-1.5) CHI 20
No Confidence Picks
ATL 27 MIA 20 (+7.5)
TB 24 (-3.5) NO 20
PHI 27 NYG 20 (+7.5)
GB 23 PIT 20 (+3)
Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to pick the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as both teams are on short rest. With the exception of significantly superior teams, it is very tough for a team to go on the road on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 61.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest.
Additionally, it is also very tough for teams to play at their best on a short week when they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye, like the Vikings did in week 6. Teams in that spot cover at just a 35.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-9 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. This isn’t a big play because we aren’t getting significant line value with the Chargers and, if this was a Sunday or a Monday game, I would have no interest in betting the Chargers, but the Chargers are worth a small bet in this spot.
Los Angeles Chargers 23 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3
Confidence: Medium
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