High Confidence Picks
PIT 19 (+3.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +150
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TBD
PHI/SF
LAC/NE
2025 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
The Jaguars started the season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop and had a +0 turnover margin in their next four games, in which they went 1-3, with their only win coming by one point in overtime to the Raiders, making their early season hot start look like the fluke that their early turnover luck suggested it was. However, the Jaguars then won their final eight games of the season from that point on and, more importantly, they did that despite only a +3 turnover margin in those games.
The reasons for the Jaguars second half turnaround are complex, but there are some obvious culprits. For one, they got linebacker Devin Lloyd and tight end Brenton Strange back from injury. Strange missed five games in the middle of the season, including all four games in their mid-season 1-3 stretch. In fact, the Jaguars are 11-1 in games in which Strange plays this season. Likewise, Lloyd missed two of the four games during the Jaguars’ mid-season 1-3 stretch and the Jaguars are 12-3 when he plays this season.
The Jaguars also discovered hidden gems on their roster down the stretch. On defense, safety Antonio Johnson, who finished with a 87.4 PFF grade, played 583 snaps in the Jaguars’ final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 77 snaps in the first six games of the season. Jarrian Jones finished as the Jaguars’ best graded cornerback on PFF with a 78.4 PFF grade and he played 440 snaps in the Jaguars’ final ten games, as opposed to 77 in their first seven games.
On offense, Cole Van Lanen was the Jaguars’ highest graded offensive lineman on PFF with a 79.3 grade and he started the final eleven games of the season, after playing just 25 snaps in the first six games of the season. Parker Washington was the Jaguars’ leading receiver and highest graded wide receiver in terms of PFF grade at 79.9 and he played 490 snaps in the final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 182 in the first six games. Additionally, the Jaguars traded for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline and proceeded to go 8-1 after acquiring him. Between Johnson, Jones, Van Lanen, Washington, Meyers, Strange, and Lloyd, seven of the Jaguars’ most important players in the second half of the season all either missed time with injury, weren’t on the roster, or were reserves in the first half of the season.
On top of all of this, the Jaguars whole roster just seemed to play better down the stretch in the first year of a new, young, but talented coaching staff. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence exemplifies this, going from a 79.8 QB rating and a 68.8 PFF grade in the first eleven games of the season to a 110.7 QB rating and a 94.0 PFF grade in the final six games of the season. Lawrence benefitted from an improved supporting cast, but he also elevated his own level of play significantly down the stretch. The Jaguars finished the regular season ranked just 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency at 2.23 points above average, but because their roster got better down the stretch in so many ways, I have them 5.63 points above average in my roster rankings.
The Jaguars’ opponents this week, the Buffalo Bills, finished the regular season 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency at +5.52, possessing significant edges over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (+2.84% vs. +1.61%) and yards per play differential (+0.67 vs. +0.26), which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record, but my roster rankings have these two teams close to even and that’s taking into account that the Bills come into the post-season healthier than they have been in recent weeks. This line is even, but, with these two teams about equal and the Jaguars at home, the Jaguars should be favored at least slightly, with my calculated line at Jacksonville -2. There isn’t enough here for the Jaguars to be bettable, but I like them to win straight up for pick ‘em purposes.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Buffalo Bills 24
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville PK
Confidence: None
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately swung on five plays that benefited the Panthers by a margin of 27 points, an interception touchdown, two touchdowns on fourth downs, and two Rams turnovers in field goal range. If just 2 or 3 of those plays had gone the other way, not only would the Rams have won, but they could have won by multiple scores. It seems unlikely things will play out the same way a second time.
Most of the Rams’ five losses this season have gone this way. They won the first down rate battle by +3.61% and the yards per play battle by +0.82 in a 7-point loss to the Eagles in which the Rams’ special teams cost them 12 points with a pair of blocked field goals, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They won the first down rate battle by +7.94% and the yards per play battle by +2.22 in a 3-point overtime loss to the 49ers in which they lost the turnover battle by two, missed a field goal, and failed on a fourth down at the end of the game.
The Rams’ only losses this season in which they lost the first down rate battle were their losses to the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Rams were without multiple key players due to injury in those games, including wide receiver Davante Adams and safety Quentin Lake, both of whom will play this week. Meanwhile, in the Rams’ twelve wins, they won by double digits eight times, relevant considering this line is -10.
The Rams finished the season first by a wide margin in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. The Rams were about 1.7 points better than any other team, and they are healthier now than they have been the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished about 13.2 points behind the Rams in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 26th in the NFL. Not only did they finish at 8-9, worst among playoff qualifiers, but were outscored by double digits in six of their nine losses.
This line might seem high at -10, but favorites of 9.5+ are 12-2 ATS in the first round of the playoffs, as big lines in the post-season tend to be justified. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is definitely a reason not to be afraid of how high this line is. Additionally, favorites are 27-17 ATS in a post-season rematch against a non-divisional opponent who they lost to as favorites in the regular season, as upsets tend to be flukes. Again, that alone is not a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is a reason not to put much, if any stock into the fact that the Panthers won the first matchup between these two teams. The Rams being on the road is also not a reason to be concerned about them, as they have one of the worst homefield advantages in the league and, as a result, are 47-38 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2016. I like the Rams a lot this week.
Los Angeles Rams 34 Carolina Panthers 17
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10
Confidence: High
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed to -0.30 and -1.12% for the Bears, which are both much more predictive than win/loss record. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Packers finished about 4.2 points better than the Bears and ranked 7th, as opposed to 19th for the Bears.
The one statistic in which the Bears had a huge edge was turnover margin, with the Bears leading the league at +22, and the Packers ranking 13th at +1, but turnover margin tends to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season. Despite the Bears huge edge in turnover margin, the Packers actually had the better point differential this season (+31 vs. +26) and these two teams could have finished with opposite records, with the Bears going 7-4 in one-score games and the Packers going 4-5-1.
One thing in the Bears’ favor is they did get better as the season went on. On offense, second year quarterback Caleb Williams improved as the year went on while four rookies, wide receiver Luther Burden, tight end Colston Loveland, running back Kyle Monangai, and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, got more playing time as the season went on and the offense improved as a result. Meanwhile, their defense is now healthier than it was for most of the season, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed), cornerback Kyler Gordon (14 games missed), linebacker TJ Edwards (7 games missed), and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed) all healthy for this game. On the other hand, the Packers got worse as the season went on, particularly due to the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft, edge defender Micah Parsons, and interior defender Devonte Wyatt for the season with injuries.
That being said, these two teams did face each other late in the season and the Packers were an onside kick recovery away from winning both games. Micah Parsons did play in the first game, but he didn’t play in the second game and neither did talented safety Evan Williams or stud right tackle Zach Tom, while Jordan Love left with a concussion in the first half. All three players will play in this game, so the Packers will be healthier in this game and they were in a game in which they easily could have won in Chicago a few weeks ago. The Bears do get wide receiver Rome Odunze and cornerback Kyler Gordon back, who didn’t play in the last matchup between these two teams, but those players don’t make as much of a difference as the players the Packers get back.
Overall, the gap between these two teams in my roster rankings is not as high as it is in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, but I still give the Packers a 3.5-point edge and, even on the road, I think the Packers are more likely to win than not. Unfortunately, the odds makers don’t really seem to disagree because they have made this an even line, so, while I still like the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be worth betting.
Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 23
Pick against the spread: Green Bay PK
Confidence: None
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